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New betting market – when will LAB next get a poll lead? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 19 in General
imageNew betting market – when will LAB next get a poll lead? – politicalbetting.com

The Smarkets exchange where Shadsy is now running the political markets, has just put up a new bet – when will LAB next get a poll lead? The rules are dead simple:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,790
    Yes
  • By the end of the year.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 18,926
    I think the problem with this bet is that it is counting on the Labour share going up quite a bit. I don't think there's much chance of the Tory share being eaten into by other parties.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 19
    Your image it out of date...missing the latest 13% lead.

    State of play. Past 6 months, Tories remarkably consistent given all the wild swings in news, the scandals, etc.

    https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

    Gravity will hit the Tories at some point, but doesn't seem to as of yet.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 42,262
    I am sure it could happen but no idea when

    Boris tests negative for covid and is to hold a 5.00pm conference with JVT and Vallance
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 19

    I am sure it could happen but no idea when

    Boris tests negative for covid and is to hold a 5.00pm conference with JVT and Vallance

    What about his isolation at Chequers? Or is he Zoom-ing in?

    Twitter is about to go into meltdown if he appears in person.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,790

    Your image it out of date...missing the latest 13% lead.

    State of play. Past 6 months, Tories remarkably consistent given all the wild swings in news, the scandals, etc.

    https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

    Gravity will hit the Tories at some point, but doesn't seem to as of yet.

    Fixed
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 42,262

    I am sure it could happen but no idea when

    Boris tests negative for covid and is to hold a 5.00pm conference with JVT and Vallance

    What about his isolation at Chequers? Or is he Zoom-ing in?

    Twitter is about to go into meltdown if he appears in person.
    Zoom from Chequers but I always find it funny when twitter go into meltdown
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 19

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.

    I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847

    Yes

    Yes indeed excellent betting tip considering they pay out on one rouge poll during conference season, whilst most punters will hear the question as Labour bettering the Tories consistently not flukely.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 19
    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts". On this specific issue, there is no suggestion that the government is doing anything but following their advice.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 5,364
    Agreed on 2021 as a value bet. Say the Tories have a 9pp lead right now. If a poor response to the Delta wave continues, I would expect that to fall to say 5 or 6pp. Then you're only a normal margin of error away from a tiny Labour lead in an outlier poll. Labour had poll leads earlier in the year - in Q1 the polls varied from a 4pp Labour lead to a 13pp Tory lead. I think the probability of us returning to that kind of environment is closer to 50% than to 27%.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050
    Note the 41% of Britons who still think Brexit was the right thing to do


    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1417091300290072577?s=20

    Then look at the lowest Tory polling. 40%


    That's Boris's hardcore vote, that's Labour's big problem. They need Brexit to fade away to have a chance of winning, or even leading
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,268

    By the end of the year.

    Which year would that be? :smiley:
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,684
    I haven't counted but Matthew Goodwin says the Tories have led for the last 120 polls. I think an outlier is the best chance of a Labour lead; but on the assumption that the real gap is now about 9 points, the real gap only needs to narrow by 3 or 4 points a for a poll within the Margin of Error to give a Labour lead. So a 2021 bet has two bites at the cherry without even thinking about an actual Labour lead.

    And as with so called 'Freedom Day' the government is suddenly swimming in treacherous waters, I agree it's a value bet. I estimate there is a 40-50% chance of such a poll in 2021.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847
    edited July 19

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.

    I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
    Yet two years from now his red brexiteers could have slowly drifted away not liking his vision for future, leaving Tories staring at certain defeat. Even without post Covid Stagflation.

    If economy goes into stagflation, with so much of our debt payment linked to inflation, the leader the Tories put up against Starmer won’t even come from cabinet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 42,918
    The problem is that the current Labour coalition is fractured whilst the Conservative one is not. That explains the persistent leads.

    As we saw in 2017 and 2019, that can change quickly: what Boris would need to do is something that massively alienates parts of his base whilst Starmer rallies his and offers a better progressive narrative to capture the centre at the same time.

    I'd rate the former as more likely than the latter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 19
    gealbhan said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.

    I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
    Yet two years from now his red brexiteers could have slowly drifted away not liking his vision for future, leaving Tories staring at certain defeat. Even without post Covid Stagflation.

    If economy goes into stagflation, with so much of our debt payment linked to inflation, the leader the Tories put up against Starmer won’t even come from cabinet.
    Oh long term I can see it*, but I was asking about the specific "by the end of this year". What is going to happen different in the next 5-6 months that will radically shift the narrative, that hasn't done so far this year.

    * or though, I can see the Tories following the US strategy and just saying it was a one off, its was a war, we are going to carry on borrowing (carefully), level up, build back better, yadda yadda yadda.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,268

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Only the S & M ones.... the whips are also compulsory.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,542
    Interesting thing about this was it made me wonder when the last calendar year without a Labour lead was. The answer: 2009.

    2021 or perhaps 2022 are probably value. Politics is volatile in some ways, even if it feels hegemonic in others.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847
    edited July 19

    gealbhan said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.

    I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
    Yet two years from now his red brexiteers could have slowly drifted away not liking his vision for future, leaving Tories staring at certain defeat. Even without post Covid Stagflation.

    If economy goes into stagflation, with so much of our debt payment linked to inflation, the leader the Tories put up against Starmer won’t even come from cabinet.
    Oh long term I can see it, but I was asking about the specific "by the end of this year". What is going to happen in the next 5-6 months that will radically shift the narrative, that hasn't done so far this year.
    By the end of this year OGH has pointed you to fantastic odds should there be a conference season rouge poll showing +1 lab. Worth the punt.

    What I previous posted you proved correct, you read the question as needing radical narrative shift.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 19
    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.

    I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
    Yet two years from now his red brexiteers could have slowly drifted away not liking his vision for future, leaving Tories staring at certain defeat. Even without post Covid Stagflation.

    If economy goes into stagflation, with so much of our debt payment linked to inflation, the leader the Tories put up against Starmer won’t even come from cabinet.
    Oh long term I can see it, but I was asking about the specific "by the end of this year". What is going to happen in the next 5-6 months that will radically shift the narrative, that hasn't done so far this year.
    By the end of this year OGH has pointed you to fantastic odds should there be a conference season rouge poll showing +1 lab. Worth the punt.
    That is the only thing I can think of, a bit of a narrowing now with worry over rising cases, perhaps average lead down to 5% and then a one off outlier.

    The problem for Labour / against this scenario is that it seems to be that people have been reminded that the yellow peril exist and that eats into the anti-Boris / anti-government vote.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050
    edited July 19

    The problem is that the current Labour coalition is fractured whilst the Conservative one is not. That explains the persistent leads.

    As we saw in 2017 and 2019, that can change quickly: what Boris would need to do is something that massively alienates parts of his base whilst Starmer rallies his and offers a better progressive narrative to capture the centre at the same time.

    I'd rate the former as more likely than the latter.

    The Tories have done a brilliant job of turning the Brexit division into permanent Culture Wars on the Left, and of uniting Wokeness/Remoanering in public perception.

    If you are angered by any aspect of Wokeness (even if you don't know what Woke means) then your only choice is to vote Tory, all the other main parties are pathetically PC

    The Conservative Party has been calamitously inept and cack-handed in multiple ways, but in this department they have shown strategic genius


    A whiny but sometimes insightful essay on this point, here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/19/right-winning-culture-war
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 173
    FPT...
    The right fetishise SAGE, but this is classic "shoot the messenger" behaviour. SAGE has no policy-making power. Government asks SAGE questions; SAGE gives responses. Government makes the decisions.

    Government can do whatever it wants with SAGE advice. They have frequently gone against SAGE advice. Government sets the questions to SAGE. Government decides who is on SAGE. SAGE has no fixed membership (we are told on SAGE and subcommittees that we are not "members", we are "participants"): every meeting is at the behest of the Government and who they want there. People are brought into and out of SAGE as needed for their expertise.

    The belief by some that SAGE is this menacing power behind the throne, directing policy, while Johnson and Hancock/Javid are somehow kept hostage, is complete nonsense. It is the Conservative Government under Prime Minister Boris Johnson who has made every UK policy decision.

    Government has access to and pays attention to multiple other sources of advice, both in terms of weighing public health concerns against other issues (the economy, international relations, principles of law, etc.) and in terms of other public health advice. They listen to MPs. Departments and agencies have their own employed experts. Departments and agencies seek other external input. I'm an academic. I'm on two SAGE sub-committees. Across both, we've met once in the last quarter. But I talk to Department of Health & Social Care officials most weeks, and we've sent them around one report per month with research findings.

    SAGE does need reform, because SAGE was never designed to work as it has since the pandemic. I think it never had many more than 5 meetings in a row for past emergencies ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_Advisory_Group_for_Emergencies#History ). It recently had its 93rd COVID meeting ( https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021 ). But is has been reformed (we're working very differently in 2021 to in 2020). What it doesn't need is political interference. The purpose of SAGE is, in so far as possible, to tell Govt what the science says. Govt retains all the power. Govt is democratic and political. You don't need extra political interference in SAGE when anything SAGE says is merely one input into Government's decision making, and Government decision making remains as political as it must always be.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 19
    Leon said:

    The problem is that the current Labour coalition is fractured whilst the Conservative one is not. That explains the persistent leads.

    As we saw in 2017 and 2019, that can change quickly: what Boris would need to do is something that massively alienates parts of his base whilst Starmer rallies his and offers a better progressive narrative to capture the centre at the same time.

    I'd rate the former as more likely than the latter.

    The Tories have done a brilliant job of turning the Brexit division into permanent Culture Wars on the Left, and of uniting Wokeness/Remoanering in public perception.

    If you are angered by any aspect of Wokeness (even if you don't know what Woke means) then your only choice is to vote Tory, all the other main parties are pathetically PC

    The Conservative Party has been calamitously inept and cack-handed in multiple ways, but in this department they have shown strategic genius
    But the media told me last week that the Tories were on totally the wrong side on the culture war and it was going to loss them bucket loads of votes...apparently that is what twitter said and we know they speak for the whole of the country....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,305
    Anecdotally, we have more people working in our offices today.

    Freedom Day? No

    Air conditioning? Yes

    I'm at home with a desk fan.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 18,926
    I think the best chance of a Labour lead is when Sunak and the BoE turn the taps off.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,268
    Leon said:

    The problem is that the current Labour coalition is fractured whilst the Conservative one is not. That explains the persistent leads.

    As we saw in 2017 and 2019, that can change quickly: what Boris would need to do is something that massively alienates parts of his base whilst Starmer rallies his and offers a better progressive narrative to capture the centre at the same time.

    I'd rate the former as more likely than the latter.

    The Tories have done a brilliant job of turning the Brexit division into permanent Culture Wars on the Left, and of uniting Wokeness/Remoanering in public perception.

    If you are angered by any aspect of Wokeness (even if you don't know what Woke means) then your only choice is to vote Tory, all the other main parties are pathetically PC

    The Conservative Party has been calamitously inept and cack-handed in multiple ways, but in this department they have shown strategic genius
    Agree. The Labour luvvies are so easily triggered on this - they simply cannot help themselves and Starmer, who basically agrees but knows it's electoral suicide, is like the proverbial rabbit in the headlines.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847
    Leon said:

    Note the 41% of Britons who still think Brexit was the right thing to do


    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1417091300290072577?s=20

    Then look at the lowest Tory polling. 40%


    That's Boris's hardcore vote, that's Labour's big problem. They need Brexit to fade away to have a chance of winning, or even leading

    Alternatively Torys are now the party of Brexit and need to deliver the sunlit globalisation busting uplands promised getting Brexit done, or else the party is facing its longest spell out of power for a generation.

    In terms of how long it takes for political support to unravel, you pointed to SNP decade long stranglehold, and perfectly right to do so. Brexit Boris can unravel in next couple of years though, because his support is based on delivering promise of change to better in this parliament. He has no wriggle room at all to include stagflation recession.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,151
    Parallels have sometimes been drawn between Johnson and Berlusconi so I thought I'd look briefly into recent Italian political history to see if there are any lessons for how Johnson's political career might develop.

    Seems to be that Berlusconi's political fortunes decisively changed for the worse due to the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011. This rather gloomily suggests that we'll only be rid of Johnson once we've run out of money for him to spend.

    In terms of Labour's future polling prospects I'd suggest that any perception of tax rises, or a large dose of inflation, are both likely triggers for a loss of Tory support.

    Probably not this year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,035
    Found a club utilising the covid app btw - Slimelight in London
  • TimSTimS Posts: 214

    Parallels have sometimes been drawn between Johnson and Berlusconi so I thought I'd look briefly into recent Italian political history to see if there are any lessons for how Johnson's political career might develop.

    Seems to be that Berlusconi's political fortunes decisively changed for the worse due to the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011. This rather gloomily suggests that we'll only be rid of Johnson once we've run out of money for him to spend.

    In terms of Labour's future polling prospects I'd suggest that any perception of tax rises, or a large dose of inflation, are both likely triggers for a loss of Tory support.

    Probably not this year.

    Yep, I think that's about the nub of it. It's the economy, stupid.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,684
    felix said:

    Leon said:

    The problem is that the current Labour coalition is fractured whilst the Conservative one is not. That explains the persistent leads.

    As we saw in 2017 and 2019, that can change quickly: what Boris would need to do is something that massively alienates parts of his base whilst Starmer rallies his and offers a better progressive narrative to capture the centre at the same time.

    I'd rate the former as more likely than the latter.

    The Tories have done a brilliant job of turning the Brexit division into permanent Culture Wars on the Left, and of uniting Wokeness/Remoanering in public perception.

    If you are angered by any aspect of Wokeness (even if you don't know what Woke means) then your only choice is to vote Tory, all the other main parties are pathetically PC

    The Conservative Party has been calamitously inept and cack-handed in multiple ways, but in this department they have shown strategic genius
    Agree. The Labour luvvies are so easily triggered on this - they simply cannot help themselves and Starmer, who basically agrees but knows it's electoral suicide, is like the proverbial rabbit in the headlines.
    SKS's big chance is to do what A Blair would do, and decide a new Labour led set of post-Brexit policies which show clear difference with the Tories, have a bit of detail and sound possible. And keep on repeating them as if he knows what he is doing.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,566
    A massive outlier not needed at the moment. At a time when the polls overall have been quite steady, an 8% range in lead is typical on a rolling 10 poll basis.

    So the mean lead in the 10 OGH shows is 9.6% whilst the lowest is 5%. That's pretty typical, so a Tory lead down to 6-7% for any period of time would probably permit an outlier with a Labour lead, and if the Tory lead drops below 5% a Labour lead at some point would become massively likely.

    Good value backing Labour in the initial pricing, I agree, which may be the intention to get things kicked off.

    I note the possibility of a headline tie, with the underlying weighted data showing slightly more Labour support, and that such an event would not settle the market.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.

    I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
    Yet two years from now his red brexiteers could have slowly drifted away not liking his vision for future, leaving Tories staring at certain defeat. Even without post Covid Stagflation.

    If economy goes into stagflation, with so much of our debt payment linked to inflation, the leader the Tories put up against Starmer won’t even come from cabinet.
    Oh long term I can see it, but I was asking about the specific "by the end of this year". What is going to happen in the next 5-6 months that will radically shift the narrative, that hasn't done so far this year.
    By the end of this year OGH has pointed you to fantastic odds should there be a conference season rouge poll showing +1 lab. Worth the punt.
    That is the only thing I can think of, a bit of a narrowing now with worry over rising cases, perhaps average lead down to 5% and then a one off outlier.

    The problem for Labour / against this scenario is that it seems to be that people have been reminded that the yellow peril exist and that eats into the anti-Boris / anti-government vote.
    Yellow Peril. You mean the Libdems?

    Oh Francis, you are such a wag 🙂. And right it does hold Labour share back.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    edited July 19

    Anecdotally, we have more people working in our offices today.

    Freedom Day? No

    Air conditioning? Yes

    I'm at home with a desk fan.

    Labour, especially Teaching Unions (*), demanding that Government introduce a "fit aircon at home" fund in 5 .. 4 .. 3 .. 2 .. 1 .., subsequently to be broadcast nationwide on Twitter by Angela Hoof-in-Mouth.

    * I know teachers don't work from home, but do you think that that will stop the National Education Union?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570
    tlg86 said:

    I think the best chance of a Labour lead is when Sunak and the BoE turn the taps off.

    The West's Central Banks are about to get caught in a horrible trap. Inflationary pressures are growing but the economies they preside over are too weak to bear increases in interest rates.

    They face either tightening policy to create the mother of all recessions, or just sitting there and watching inflation destroy living standards.

    Well, you stupid, stupid idiots, you bankrolled the CCP designed Western response to covid, what did you expect?
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645

    tlg86 said:

    I think the best chance of a Labour lead is when Sunak and the BoE turn the taps off.

    The West's Central Banks are about to get caught in a horrible trap. Inflationary pressures are growing but the economies they preside over are too weak to bear increases in interest rates.

    They face either tightening policy to create the mother of all recessions, or just sitting there and watching inflation destroy living standards.

    Well, you stupid, stupid idiots, you bankrolled the CCP designed Western response to covid, what did you expect?
    What else could they do.

    The simple answer is that Covid spending is ignored and countries start to reduce borrowing ASAP but as we don't currently know what none Covid borrowing looks like that is going to be difficult.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847
    algarkirk said:

    felix said:

    Leon said:

    The problem is that the current Labour coalition is fractured whilst the Conservative one is not. That explains the persistent leads.

    As we saw in 2017 and 2019, that can change quickly: what Boris would need to do is something that massively alienates parts of his base whilst Starmer rallies his and offers a better progressive narrative to capture the centre at the same time.

    I'd rate the former as more likely than the latter.

    The Tories have done a brilliant job of turning the Brexit division into permanent Culture Wars on the Left, and of uniting Wokeness/Remoanering in public perception.

    If you are angered by any aspect of Wokeness (even if you don't know what Woke means) then your only choice is to vote Tory, all the other main parties are pathetically PC

    The Conservative Party has been calamitously inept and cack-handed in multiple ways, but in this department they have shown strategic genius
    Agree. The Labour luvvies are so easily triggered on this - they simply cannot help themselves and Starmer, who basically agrees but knows it's electoral suicide, is like the proverbial rabbit in the headlines.
    SKS's big chance is to do what A Blair would do, and decide a new Labour led set of post-Brexit policies which show clear difference with the Tories, have a bit of detail and sound possible. And keep on repeating them as if he knows what he is doing.

    The five things on a card? It was catchy and succinct. Blair only done it near the election though, not as early on as Starmer is now. Still to early to expect policies from Labour.

    The Blair card was also bad in being bland promises, not stiff targets or exciting change at all.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,388
    Leon said:

    Note the 41% of Britons who still think Brexit was the right thing to do


    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1417091300290072577?s=20

    Then look at the lowest Tory polling. 40%


    That's Boris's hardcore vote, that's Labour's big problem. They need Brexit to fade away to have a chance of winning, or even leading

    Go back to last November, when it has to be said that everything was falling apart, the Conservative share looks like it fell to about 39 %, which meant individual polls coming in the range 36 - 42 % ish. So I reckon there's a lot in the Brexit Bedrock theory.

    However,
    1 the Bedrock isn't, by itself, quite enough. 40 percent loses to a reasonably efficiently-distributed opposition, even if each component of that opposition is well behind.

    2 Bedrock is also subject to erosion. One of the grim fascinations of the next few years might be watching how the UK comes to terms with Brexit if the settled majority view becomes "well that was a mistake but we're stuck with it". (I'm not saying that will happen, but it's a plausible extrapolation from here.)

    The other way of looking at things is that, in 2020 there were three events that cut though enough to shift polls in a reasonably solid L+3/C-3 way. Durham, Exam grades and December. If the current score is 41-33 (say), a similar cockup takes the average to 38-36, in which case you'd expect an outlier to give a Labour lead. Curtaingate at the end of April came damn close.

    So this is a bet on the Johnson government not screwing up, even temporarily, for the rest of 2021. Put like that, do you feel lucky, Boris? Do you?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,156
    FPT

    To add my anecdata to the mix just returned from the big tesco's store. A firm that still insists wearing masks is mandatory in store. Estimate that maskless has increased from about 10% last week to 40% today and they have removed the guy on the door asking you to wear a mask as you go in. Supect by this time next week the enmasked will be the minority.

    Also a huge amount of people smiling at each other for a change

    I think if the government were hoping businesses would enforce mask wearing their plan failed
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 9,830
    Labour won’t catch up until it has a positive message for the future, rather than just endless “we’d do safety better than the Tories and sod liberty” - a caricature for sure but one that does resonate.

    Meanwhile, @contrarian makes an excellent point. The sight of Labour’s core vote packing dance floors and partying all night last night suggests there is a dissonance between what people tell pollsters, and what they actually do.
  • pingping Posts: 1,025
    Miserable day on the markets.

    Glad I’m all out.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 3,796

    FPT...

    The right fetishise SAGE, but this is classic "shoot the messenger" behaviour. SAGE has no policy-making power. Government asks SAGE questions; SAGE gives responses. Government makes the decisions.

    Government can do whatever it wants with SAGE advice. They have frequently gone against SAGE advice. Government sets the questions to SAGE. Government decides who is on SAGE. SAGE has no fixed membership (we are told on SAGE and subcommittees that we are not "members", we are "participants"): every meeting is at the behest of the Government and who they want there. People are brought into and out of SAGE as needed for their expertise.

    The belief by some that SAGE is this menacing power behind the throne, directing policy, while Johnson and Hancock/Javid are somehow kept hostage, is complete nonsense. It is the Conservative Government under Prime Minister Boris Johnson who has made every UK policy decision.

    Government has access to and pays attention to multiple other sources of advice, both in terms of weighing public health concerns against other issues (the economy, international relations, principles of law, etc.) and in terms of other public health advice. They listen to MPs. Departments and agencies have their own employed experts. Departments and agencies seek other external input. I'm an academic. I'm on two SAGE sub-committees. Across both, we've met once in the last quarter. But I talk to Department of Health & Social Care officials most weeks, and we've sent them around one report per month with research findings.

    SAGE does need reform, because SAGE was never designed to work as it has since the pandemic. I think it never had many more than 5 meetings in a row for past emergencies ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_Advisory_Group_for_Emergencies#History ). It recently had its 93rd COVID meeting ( https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021 ). But is has been reformed (we're working very differently in 2021 to in 2020). What it doesn't need is political interference. The purpose of SAGE is, in so far as possible, to tell Govt what the science says. Govt retains all the power. Govt is democratic and political. You don't need extra political interference in SAGE when anything SAGE says is merely one input into Government's decision making, and Government decision making remains as political as it must always be.

    Well up to a point.
    When you have members of SAGE who are members of a political party whose avowed intent is to bring down capitalism and replace it with something else, you do wonder about the objectivity of the advice received.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,699
    Leon said:

    The problem is that the current Labour coalition is fractured whilst the Conservative one is not. That explains the persistent leads.

    As we saw in 2017 and 2019, that can change quickly: what Boris would need to do is something that massively alienates parts of his base whilst Starmer rallies his and offers a better progressive narrative to capture the centre at the same time.

    I'd rate the former as more likely than the latter.

    The Tories have done a brilliant job of turning the Brexit division into permanent Culture Wars on the Left, and of uniting Wokeness/Remoanering in public perception.

    If you are angered by any aspect of Wokeness (even if you don't know what Woke means) then your only choice is to vote Tory, all the other main parties are pathetically PC

    The Conservative Party has been calamitously inept and cack-handed in multiple ways, but in this department they have shown strategic genius


    A whiny but sometimes insightful essay on this point, here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/19/right-winning-culture-war
    The key in any 'war' is knowing which fights to fight. Going 'against' the footballers was idiotic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,426

    Labour won’t catch up until it has a positive message for the future, rather than just endless “we’d do safety better than the Tories and sod liberty” - a caricature for sure but one that does resonate.

    Meanwhile, @contrarian makes an excellent point. The sight of Labour’s core vote packing dance floors and partying all night last night suggests there is a dissonance between what people tell pollsters, and what they actually do.

    Doesn't a core vote, you know, vote?
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,268

    "Rouge Poll" - A rogue poll favouring the reds.

    That would give me the blues.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,699
    gealbhan said:

    algarkirk said:

    felix said:

    Leon said:

    The problem is that the current Labour coalition is fractured whilst the Conservative one is not. That explains the persistent leads.

    As we saw in 2017 and 2019, that can change quickly: what Boris would need to do is something that massively alienates parts of his base whilst Starmer rallies his and offers a better progressive narrative to capture the centre at the same time.

    I'd rate the former as more likely than the latter.

    The Tories have done a brilliant job of turning the Brexit division into permanent Culture Wars on the Left, and of uniting Wokeness/Remoanering in public perception.

    If you are angered by any aspect of Wokeness (even if you don't know what Woke means) then your only choice is to vote Tory, all the other main parties are pathetically PC

    The Conservative Party has been calamitously inept and cack-handed in multiple ways, but in this department they have shown strategic genius
    Agree. The Labour luvvies are so easily triggered on this - they simply cannot help themselves and Starmer, who basically agrees but knows it's electoral suicide, is like the proverbial rabbit in the headlines.
    SKS's big chance is to do what A Blair would do, and decide a new Labour led set of post-Brexit policies which show clear difference with the Tories, have a bit of detail and sound possible. And keep on repeating them as if he knows what he is doing.

    The five things on a card? It was catchy and succinct. Blair only done it near the election though, not as early on as Starmer is now. Still to early to expect policies from Labour.

    The Blair card was also bad in being bland promises, not stiff targets or exciting change at all.
    Maybe we need the Starmer Stone....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415
    edited July 19
    Good afternoon. Catching up on the latest news via this site.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,426
    edited July 19
    Andy_JS said:

    Good afternoon. Catching up on the latest news via this thread.

    Hope you like swear words.

    Edit: ah, that was in the last thread (thankfully).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    Not until they can squeeze back the Green and SNP vote by the looks of things.

    The LD vote is less of an issue if some Tory Remainers go LD
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939

    I am sure it could happen but no idea when

    Boris tests negative for covid and is to hold a 5.00pm conference with JVT and Vallance

    What about his isolation at Chequers? Or is he Zoom-ing in?

    Twitter is about to go into meltdown if he appears in person.
    Zoom from Chequers but I always find it funny when twitter go into meltdown
    Talking of Twitter going into meltdown:

    Hi, we have made the decision to operate under English guidance, with regards to social distancing on cross border services, to provide consistency to customers. Therefore, customers may be seated next to each other when travelling from 19 July onwards.

    https://twitter.com/LNER/status/1416844949769830403?s=20
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,268
    RobD said:

    Labour won’t catch up until it has a positive message for the future, rather than just endless “we’d do safety better than the Tories and sod liberty” - a caricature for sure but one that does resonate.

    Meanwhile, @contrarian makes an excellent point. The sight of Labour’s core vote packing dance floors and partying all night last night suggests there is a dissonance between what people tell pollsters, and what they actually do.

    Doesn't a core vote, you know, vote?
    Not much if they're young and trendy too busy on twittergram!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 19

    NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"

    Fair enough given the comment but temporarily I hope as the site would not be the same without him
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 173
    Cookie said:

    Well up to a point.
    When you have members of SAGE who are members of a political party whose avowed intent is to bring down capitalism and replace it with something else, you do wonder about the objectivity of the advice received.

    It's up to the Government whether Susan Michie is on SAGE or its sub-committees, or not. If you are concerned about the decision, address your concerns to the Prime Minister.

    Or you could read Susan's work for yourself and see that it's great science, not an exercise in revolution. Her seminal work is https://implementationscience.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1748-5908-6-42
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,895

    NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"

    @Leon posting while pissed? To be serious, is there, or could there be, a mechanism within Vanilla to simply remove offending posts (including where they are quoted) rather than ban the poster?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568

    FPT...

    The right fetishise SAGE, but this is classic "shoot the messenger" behaviour. SAGE has no policy-making power. Government asks SAGE questions; SAGE gives responses. Government makes the decisions.

    Government can do whatever it wants with SAGE advice. They have frequently gone against SAGE advice. Government sets the questions to SAGE. Government decides who is on SAGE. SAGE has no fixed membership (we are told on SAGE and subcommittees that we are not "members", we are "participants"): every meeting is at the behest of the Government and who they want there. People are brought into and out of SAGE as needed for their expertise.

    The belief by some that SAGE is this menacing power behind the throne, directing policy, while Johnson and Hancock/Javid are somehow kept hostage, is complete nonsense. It is the Conservative Government under Prime Minister Boris Johnson who has made every UK policy decision.

    Government has access to and pays attention to multiple other sources of advice, both in terms of weighing public health concerns against other issues (the economy, international relations, principles of law, etc.) and in terms of other public health advice. They listen to MPs. Departments and agencies have their own employed experts. Departments and agencies seek other external input. I'm an academic. I'm on two SAGE sub-committees. Across both, we've met once in the last quarter. But I talk to Department of Health & Social Care officials most weeks, and we've sent them around one report per month with research findings.

    SAGE does need reform, because SAGE was never designed to work as it has since the pandemic. I think it never had many more than 5 meetings in a row for past emergencies ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_Advisory_Group_for_Emergencies#History ). It recently had its 93rd COVID meeting ( https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021 ). But is has been reformed (we're working very differently in 2021 to in 2020). What it doesn't need is political interference. The purpose of SAGE is, in so far as possible, to tell Govt what the science says. Govt retains all the power. Govt is democratic and political. You don't need extra political interference in SAGE when anything SAGE says is merely one input into Government's decision making, and Government decision making remains as political as it must always be.

    And yet any time the politicians decide that something else trumps the science they go and mouth off to their nearest media outlet. You all want to have your cake and eat it, on the one hand you say it's politicians that have to make the decisions and they are free to make decisions that you don't agree with but then at the same time you say it's unfair that SAGE members aren't bound by the same rules as the civil service on speaking to media directly (don't fucking do it).

    So ultimately we have a tyranny of scientists who think they know what's best for us because the government knows the media will go mental every time one of you lot go rogue and decide that actually, you know what's better for the country than the people who have been elected.

    Your post just doesn't hold water after the year that we've been through. Even now we've got a lot of push back against giving people the freedom to choose what they want to do. At least we got rid of Hancock who had just become a sage mouthpiece. Hopefully the anti lockdown people will manage to remove all of the other lockdown fascists from public life soon.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,638
    FPT:
    Candy said:

    Pulpstar said:


    It's really infuriating that the Gov't doesn't just tell the truth and say we don't have supply to do group x (Non vulnerable 12 - 17), so we're delaying a decision till we can start this group instead of providing succour for antivaxxers.

    It's not just about supply. There is a risk assessment as well.

    Children are not at risk from covid. At the same time the vaccines do have tiny risks - blood clots for AZ, heart enlargement for Pfizer and capillary leak syndrome for Jansen.

    For over 18's the risk of covid > risk of the vaccines.

    For under 18's the risk of the vaccines > risk of covid.

    The only reason places like France are offering the vaccine to 12 year olds is to get their vax numbers up.

    But it's unethical to vax children just to save adult anti-vaxxers. Better to try to jab the refuseniks (which the govt is doing - if you look at the daily stats on the govt website, quite a lot of over 50s are getting their first jabs still).
    That's not actually true.

    There is a risk to children from covid. It's just very low.
    Sometimes we seem to gloss one very small risk as being the same as another (because both are "very small") or even ignore one and not the other. Even though one very small risk may be hundreds of times smaller than the other.

    The chance of death from covid for a child is particularly tiny, but the chance of hospitalisation is real, but very small (probably between 1-2 in a thousand, given the rates of hospitalisation we've seen in children to date).

    The risk to children from myocarditis with Pfizer looks to be below a hundredth of that - two orders of magnitude lower.
    It's also noticeable that the risk of myocarditis to children from covid looks to be on the close order of 2%. This figure is a lot higher than the hospitalisation rate, because myocarditis generally doesn't result in a hospital visit unless the person with it engages in strenuous activity at the wrong time.
    The myocarditis, in both cases (whether virus-induced or vaccine induced at under a hundredth the rate) usually sees full recovery in a short time, anyway (other symptoms of covid may not clear as quickly or completely).

    In short - if it is viewed that "children are not at risk from covid", then the orders-of-magnitude lower risk from the vaccine cannot realistically be cited as a risk, either.

    If the extremely low risk of transient myocarditis from the vaccine is seen as a risk of significance, then the hundreds of times greater risk to the child from covid should be seen as a pretty significant risk as well.

    One cannot have the far smaller one seen as significant while the larger one is deemed nonexistent.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 9,830
    RobD said:

    Labour won’t catch up until it has a positive message for the future, rather than just endless “we’d do safety better than the Tories and sod liberty” - a caricature for sure but one that does resonate.

    Meanwhile, @contrarian makes an excellent point. The sight of Labour’s core vote packing dance floors and partying all night last night suggests there is a dissonance between what people tell pollsters, and what they actually do.

    Doesn't a core vote, you know, vote?
    Not Labour’s! I can’t imagine many of the clubbers pictured last night are enthused about voting at the moment: there is no positive message for the young other than “thanks for sacrificing two years of your youth, now behave”.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,426

    NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"

    @Leon posting while pissed? To be serious, is there, or could there be, a mechanism within Vanilla to simply remove offending posts (including where they are quoted) rather than ban the poster?
    Yeah, but I think that comment justified a cooling off period.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,156

    NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"

    @Leon posting while pissed? To be serious, is there, or could there be, a mechanism within Vanilla to simply remove offending posts (including where they are quoted) rather than ban the poster?
    But then how can we run a book on the next guise he graces us with?

    Personally my money is on a time travelling consumptive romantic poet from the late eighteenth century
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 9,830
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,895

    Anecdotally, we have more people working in our offices today.

    Freedom Day? No

    Air conditioning? Yes

    I'm at home with a desk fan.

    Before redundancy, I would always look at the weather forecast before deciding whether to WFH or pop into the office for crucial meetings free air conditioning.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Admitedly Labour lead a handful of polls in January but if historically they have lead at least one poll every year going back to Thatcher I believe. Those odds seem very generous as you'd think with over 5 months left of the year they'd at least get an outlier. The Lib Dems are back out the spotlight and the vaccine rollout may fade a bit so it's possible there might be a 37 vs 38 poll sometime before Christmas.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,151
    Pagan2 said:

    NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"

    @Leon posting while pissed? To be serious, is there, or could there be, a mechanism within Vanilla to simply remove offending posts (including where they are quoted) rather than ban the poster?
    But then how can we run a book on the next guise he graces us with?

    Personally my money is on a time travelling consumptive romantic poet from the late eighteenth century
    We had that one already.

    If he posed as a software engineer then we might not ever pick him out.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,079
    edited July 19

    NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"

    And I was just getting used to Sean OS11 Big Sur.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    FREEEEEEEEDOMMMMMM.....

    Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrown_UK/status/1417077491081023501?s=20
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,035

    FPT:

    Candy said:

    Pulpstar said:


    It's really infuriating that the Gov't doesn't just tell the truth and say we don't have supply to do group x (Non vulnerable 12 - 17), so we're delaying a decision till we can start this group instead of providing succour for antivaxxers.

    It's not just about supply. There is a risk assessment as well.

    Children are not at risk from covid. At the same time the vaccines do have tiny risks - blood clots for AZ, heart enlargement for Pfizer and capillary leak syndrome for Jansen.

    For over 18's the risk of covid > risk of the vaccines.

    For under 18's the risk of the vaccines > risk of covid.

    The only reason places like France are offering the vaccine to 12 year olds is to get their vax numbers up.

    But it's unethical to vax children just to save adult anti-vaxxers. Better to try to jab the refuseniks (which the govt is doing - if you look at the daily stats on the govt website, quite a lot of over 50s are getting their first jabs still).
    That's not actually true.

    There is a risk to children from covid. It's just very low.
    Sometimes we seem to gloss one very small risk as being the same as another (because both are "very small") or even ignore one and not the other. Even though one very small risk may be hundreds of times smaller than the other.

    The chance of death from covid for a child is particularly tiny, but the chance of hospitalisation is real, but very small (probably between 1-2 in a thousand, given the rates of hospitalisation we've seen in children to date).

    The risk to children from myocarditis with Pfizer looks to be below a hundredth of that - two orders of magnitude lower.
    It's also noticeable that the risk of myocarditis to children from covid looks to be on the close order of 2%. This figure is a lot higher than the hospitalisation rate, because myocarditis generally doesn't result in a hospital visit unless the person with it engages in strenuous activity at the wrong time.
    The myocarditis, in both cases (whether virus-induced or vaccine induced at under a hundredth the rate) usually sees full recovery in a short time, anyway (other symptoms of covid may not clear as quickly or completely).

    In short - if it is viewed that "children are not at risk from covid", then the orders-of-magnitude lower risk from the vaccine cannot realistically be cited as a risk, either.

    If the extremely low risk of transient myocarditis from the vaccine is seen as a risk of significance, then the hundreds of times greater risk to the child from covid should be seen as a pretty significant risk as well.

    One cannot have the far smaller one seen as significant while the larger one is deemed nonexistent.
    +1
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    LNER are owned/run by UK govt. They report they reached agreement with Scottish govt to do this.

    Cynically looks like SG now standing back to watch social media spin up a convenient nationalist grievance story of "English" disregard for Scotland, without clarifying position.


    https://twitter.com/JamesManuell/status/1417103068399812611?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,426

    FREEEEEEEEDOMMMMMM.....

    Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrown_UK/status/1417077491081023501?s=20

    Anti-lockdown protestors? Erm, does anyone want to tell them?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Better you get out of the way and let the young energetic and potentially productive in our society get on with creating wealth.

    Seriously. Want us to keep paying for your pensions, benefits and services? just let us get on with it?

    Why is nobody in the tory party presenting the electorate with what the choice really is?Back to your lives or penury. That was always the choice
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    I'm going to stop tweeting the daily vaccine numbers after today. Will obviously still be covering vaccines (a lot) and will tweet updates from time to time - but I had to stop at some time and 'freedom day' seemed as good a time as ever.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1417065158711599108?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
    Maybe but would also cut the rise in cases
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 22,766
    felix said:

    Leon said:

    The problem is that the current Labour coalition is fractured whilst the Conservative one is not. That explains the persistent leads.

    As we saw in 2017 and 2019, that can change quickly: what Boris would need to do is something that massively alienates parts of his base whilst Starmer rallies his and offers a better progressive narrative to capture the centre at the same time.

    I'd rate the former as more likely than the latter.

    The Tories have done a brilliant job of turning the Brexit division into permanent Culture Wars on the Left, and of uniting Wokeness/Remoanering in public perception.

    If you are angered by any aspect of Wokeness (even if you don't know what Woke means) then your only choice is to vote Tory, all the other main parties are pathetically PC

    The Conservative Party has been calamitously inept and cack-handed in multiple ways, but in this department they have shown strategic genius
    Agree. The Labour luvvies are so easily triggered on this - they simply cannot help themselves and Starmer, who basically agrees but knows it's electoral suicide, is like the proverbial rabbit in the headlines.
    Yep. Looks like we all agree. We have consensus on this across the PB political divide. Some on the left are indeed easily triggered by racism and bigotry and they can't seem to help it. Not great. But arguably better than the alternative of being deeply relaxed about it. Or perhaps there's a Clinton/Blair style 3rd way? To pretend to be deeply relaxed about racism and bigotry whilst in truth fuming inside. This might be the sweet spot in electoral terms. Doctors wouldn't recommend it though.
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645
    HYUFD said:

    NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"

    Fair enough given the comment but temporarily I hope as the site would not be the same without him
    I'm sure he will be back - using an alias with a completely implausible backstory we all see through within seconds.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,035

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
    Negative tests can also be used. Slimelight is implementing it as a condition of entry, which is interesting. Not found anywhere else yet..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    Which of the following do you think are the most effective at stopping the spread of Covid? Please rank your top 5:

    Wearing a mask: 54%
    Distancing: 49%
    Washing hands: 43%
    Ventilation: 28%
    Cleaning surfaces: 20%

    @chriscurtis94

    @OpiniumResearch
    16 July 2021

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1417100177660329988?s=20

    Poor government education.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 19

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Better you get out of the way and let the young energetic and potentially productive in our society get on with creating wealth.

    Seriously. Want us to keep paying for your pensions, benefits and services? just let us get on with it?

    Why is nobody in the tory party presenting the electorate with what the choice really is?Back to your lives or penury. That was always the choice
    Get double jabbed and Covid vaccination passports not an issue for you and you can get back to your lives
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    Good news for horny athletes...

    “Anti-sex” beds at the Olympics (are fake news)

    https://twitter.com/McClenaghanRhys/status/1416567768938291203?s=20
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847

    Labour won’t catch up until it has a positive message for the future, rather than just endless “we’d do safety better than the Tories and sod liberty” - a caricature for sure but one that does resonate.

    Meanwhile, @contrarian makes an excellent point. The sight of Labour’s core vote packing dance floors and partying all night last night suggests there is a dissonance between what people tell pollsters, and what they actually do.

    “Labour won’t catch up until it has a positive message for the future,“

    Possible though that the next election still some way off at October 23, if not delayed by bad polls, will be about economics and not the “freedom” questions from the historical Covid period?

    Thinking back to how flip floppy the Cameron/Osborne loto was on positive message till they got a recession to build support on, Labour may not need to go out and win the match with great game plan.

    The political narrative could quickly move on from Covid now, and the economic challenges can easily dominate the agenda for years.

    Correct me where my amateur study of economics is wrong, stagflation is a term used when inflation was causing a problem and growth had stalled? Another politically damaging thing in 60s 70s was where growth leapt and ebbed greatly in short bursts. Whilst best thing is to have steady moderate growth with low inflation over long period. After the shock to economic system of both Covid and Brexit, either stagflation or more likely the wild variation model would not be a surprise?

    The added issue with inflation, while voters moan about their pay not keeping up with cost of living, behind the scenes government may have become too reliant on printing money with magic money wand, and discover the interest on the debt is linked to inflation, so the governments spending power drys up without the wand.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,763

    Anecdotally, we have more people working in our offices today.

    Freedom Day? No

    Air conditioning? Yes

    I'm at home with a desk fan.

    Yes it's very comfortable in our office. I wonder if over the coming weeks people will suddenly be keen to return. Anecdotally I was talking to someone who works as support staff in a university. Says they are trying to get people to come back in but they are very reluctant to do so because they are worried about covid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    No 10 says govt has abandoned plans to reduce the sensitivity of the Covid tracing app. PM's spokesman says a third of people asked to isolate develop symptoms, adding: 'The app is doing what it it supposed to'

    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1417093082106015746?s=20
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,035

    Which of the following do you think are the most effective at stopping the spread of Covid? Please rank your top 5:

    Wearing a mask: 54%
    Distancing: 49%
    Washing hands: 43%
    Ventilation: 28%
    Cleaning surfaces: 20%

    @chriscurtis94

    @OpiniumResearch
    16 July 2021

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1417100177660329988?s=20

    Poor government education.

    Ventilation
    Distancing
    Mask
    Hands
    Surface

    The true order I think ?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
    Maybe but would also cut the rise in cases
    A representative from the nightclub industry said on talkradio today that, even with current rules, it will take this sector five years to repair its finances. Five years. Many operators have taken out loans or remortgaged houses to get them past this.

    So your proposals would destroy a whole industry for good. In case you were wondering.

    All to stop a few oldies from sh8tting themselves a bit less, whilst still demanding the services and benefits the nightclub industry helps to fund.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415
    "@stephenpollard

    Was going to hospital today for routine tests. Just had a call. My consultant - double jabbed - has just been pinged. So he is now isolating and his entire list thrown into chaos.
    Bring forward the Aug isolation rules. It's madness

    8:23 AM · Jul 19, 2021"

    https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1417022225052545026
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,825


    Yes it's very comfortable in our office. I wonder if over the coming weeks people will suddenly be keen to return. Anecdotally I was talking to someone who works as support staff in a university. Says they are trying to get people to come back in but they are very reluctant to do so because they are worried about covid.

    So when autumn comes and the wind is blowing, the rain is falling and the days are getting shorter, perhaps working at some will once again some attractive?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 19

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
    Maybe but would also cut the rise in cases
    A representative from the nightclub industry said on talkradio today that, even with current rules, it will take this sector five years to repair its finances. Five years. Many operators have taken out loans or remortgaged houses to get them past this.

    So your proposals would destroy a whole industry for good. In case you were wondering.

    All to stop a few oldies from sh8tting themselves a bit less, whilst still demanding the services and benefits the nightclub industry helps to fund.

    No it wouldn't. Austria has done it successfully as has France, as have a number of clubs in NYC and LA.

    If anything mandatory Covid vaccination passports could encourage customers to nightclubs as they would know their fellow dancers had all been vaccinated.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 22,766

    NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"

    No choice really. No choice.

    When a poster is banned their avatar on my screen doubles up. So they've gone and yet at the same time there are now 2 of them.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,057
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Better you get out of the way and let the young energetic and potentially productive in our society get on with creating wealth.

    Seriously. Want us to keep paying for your pensions, benefits and services? just let us get on with it?

    Why is nobody in the tory party presenting the electorate with what the choice really is?Back to your lives or penury. That was always the choice
    Get double jabbed and Covid vaccination passports not an issue for you and you can get back to your lives
    Utter rubbish.

    I am double jabbed. Domestic vaccination passports would still be a PITA.

    My Conservative principles are about protecting liberty. Not providing a comfort blanket for the frit.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    edited July 19
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
    Maybe but would also cut the rise in cases
    A representative from the nightclub industry said on talkradio today that, even with current rules, it will take this sector five years to repair its finances. Five years. Many operators have taken out loans or remortgaged houses to get them past this.

    So your proposals would destroy a whole industry for good. In case you were wondering.

    All to stop a few oldies from sh8tting themselves a bit less, whilst still demanding the services and benefits the nightclub industry helps to fund.

    No it wouldn't. Austria has done it successfully as has France, as have a number of clubs in NYC and LA.

    If anything mandatory Covid vaccination passports could encourage customers to nightclubs as they would know their fellow dancers had all been vaccinated.
    Very unconservative, there, HYUFD, for our resident let me tell you who is or isn't a Conservative poster.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"

    Fair enough given the comment but temporarily I hope as the site would not be the same without him
    I'm sure he will be back - using an alias with a completely implausible backstory we all see through within seconds.
    Am I allowed to ask who the poster is?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415

    No 10 says govt has abandoned plans to reduce the sensitivity of the Covid tracing app. PM's spokesman says a third of people asked to isolate develop symptoms, adding: 'The app is doing what it it supposed to'

    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1417093082106015746?s=20

    Dan Hodges is predicting Boris will have to perform another U-turn on this within days.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 2,971

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.

    I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
    Do you think we really could have kept delta out? Its everywhere in the world? Maybe we could have done more to restrict entry from India, but I think it was gonna get in in the end. In a sense its probably better to have delta now, as the dominant strain as it is out-competing all the other strains. And getting the exit wave done now is better than in october. But time will tell.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,156
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    By the end of the year.

    Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?

    The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
    Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).

    Would be a start.

    But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
    SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....

    Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
    Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
    Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
    Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
    Maybe but would also cut the rise in cases
    A representative from the nightclub industry said on talkradio today that, even with current rules, it will take this sector five years to repair its finances. Five years. Many operators have taken out loans or remortgaged houses to get them past this.

    So your proposals would destroy a whole industry for good. In case you were wondering.

    All to stop a few oldies from sh8tting themselves a bit less, whilst still demanding the services and benefits the nightclub industry helps to fund.

    No it wouldn't. Austria has done it successfully as has France, as have a number of clubs in NYC and LA.

    If anything mandatory Covid vaccination passports could encourage customers to nightclubs as they would know their fellow dancers had all been vaccinated.
    Very unconservative, there, HYUFD, for our resident let me tell you who is or isn't a Conservative poster.
    He is also wrong because it would just make illegal raves a thing again and they would be more fun to goto than a "passport please" club
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 9,830
    Andy_JS said:

    "@stephenpollard

    Was going to hospital today for routine tests. Just had a call. My consultant - double jabbed - has just been pinged. So he is now isolating and his entire list thrown into chaos.
    Bring forward the Aug isolation rules. It's madness

    8:23 AM · Jul 19, 2021"

    https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1417022225052545026

    I spoke to a friend at the weekend who works in the NHS – her trust has told all employees delete the app as otherwise they won't be able to run services.

    I wonder if the deep irony of the NHS telling NHS staff to delete the NHS app will be lost on Bozza?
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