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New betting market – when will LAB next get a poll lead? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,282

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    That's still 40% from vaccinated people. I sincerely hope a lot of them were single vaxxed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited July 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, more volunteer Covid Marshalls and Inspectors can be recruited too with emergency powers to shut venues if not complying, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    Just take a break from your keyboard before you say something that you may regret for the rest of your political career
    There is nothing to regret, every government on the planet has plans to bring the army in as a last resort if civil order breaks down and a rioting mob the police cannot control threatens to take over, just reality.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2021
    DavidL said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    That's still 40% from vaccinated people. I sincerely hope a lot of them were single vaxxed.
    Well we have that tweet from Richard that gives a flavour of the rough breakdown (albeit out of date, but still).
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,670
    MattW said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    All that furious PB commentary and high blood pressure for almost nothing ... :smiley: .
    Who is actually being hospitalised with the Delta variant? Our analysis of latest PHE data (up to 25 June) shows that, in England:

    73% were under the age of 50
    63% were completely unvaccinated (of which 89% were <50)
    14% had had 1 jab
    15% had had 2 jabs (of which 81% were >50)


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415366302299000834?s=20
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Fox has worked out that if all its viewers are dead it's advertising sales probably fall.

    https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1417178420950220811?s=19

    Of course we still await Tucker Carlson's White Power Hour to undo the rest of the day's work.

    Expecting a ratings bump for OANN and whatever that other insane one is.
    Fox's hypocrisy has been staggering over COVID Continually criticising mask mandates despite masks being compulsory to work at Fox News. Then feeding anti-vax hysteria despite almost all the presenters being vaxxed. They've just started requiring workers to have proof of vaccination as well which may have been the straw that got them to change to a vax positive line.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,417

    The response to covid passports reminds me of the smoking ban in pubs.

    Was going to lead to masses of smokers and landlords ignoring the rules, was going to lead to the courts being flooded, would get repealed before it came into force.

    Same group of 'libertarians' (who liberty means that they have liberty, not others) seem to be making similar predictions this time having not learnt from those mistakes almost 20 years ago.

    Strange analogy and not sure I remember that response then being prevalent. In any case by definition if you insist on vaccine passports to go to a pub (FFS) then by definition everyone in there does not need protecting do they ? So why worried if a non vacinated person goes in? this type of divisive law is cruel and illeral
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,238

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Too late now. They've reported the 60% figure all over the place - it was on RTE Six-One news earlier. It feeds into a developing narrative that the vaccines just aren't that much cop, contrary to the reality.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Oh good. I knew that 60% number didn't sound right. 60% for unvaccinated sounds correct though, probably another 25-30% for single jabbed and 10-15% for double jabbed as it was the last time we got the stat.

    60% just didn't pass the sniff test for me.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,670
    Who is dying from Delta variant?

    90% were over 50
    36% were unvaccinated (of which 77% were over 50)
    17% had had 1 jab
    45% have had two doses (of which 98% were over 50)

    Last figure will reflect the fact that the vast, vast majority of over 50s have had two doses.


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415373345906909186?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited July 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    There we go. HYUFD has moved on from sending the tanks to crush those uppity Scots and has now extended it to crushing those uppity English as well.

    Its no wonder dictatorships find it so easy to get established with useful idiots like him around.
    No, 58% of UK voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports as do 55% of Scots, just diehard libertarians who refuse to respect the rule of law have to be shown the rule of the law stands not the rule of the mob

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/shoay8wn49/YouGov - Vaccine Passports Results.pdf
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Oh good. I knew that 60% number didn't sound right. 60% for unvaccinated sounds correct though, probably another 25-30% for single jabbed and 10-15% for double jabbed as it was the last time we got the stat.

    60% just didn't pass the sniff test for me.
    Amusingly this could have been enormous news, media..... nightclub outrage......outraggggggggggeeee.....
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    DavidL said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    That's still 40% from vaccinated people. I sincerely hope a lot of them were single vaxxed.
    I think the rough breakdown will be:

    0 jabs - 60%
    1 jab - 25-30%
    2 jabs - 10-15%

    Both times we've been given the stat it's been around this level.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,294
    edited July 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, more volunteer Covid Marshalls and Inspectors can be recruited too with emergency powers to shut venues if not complying, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    Just take a break from your keyboard before you say something that you may regret for the rest of your political career
    There is nothing to regret, every government on the planet has plans to bring the army in as a last resort if civil order breaks down and a rioting mob the police cannot control threatens to take over, just reality.

    You have no sense, no political antenna, and as a party official embarrass those of us who are members and have to apologise for your idiotic confrontational statements

    Stick to analysing pollng, it is much better for you, and believe it or not those of us who are moderate conservatives
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Who is dying from Delta variant?

    90% were over 50
    36% were unvaccinated (of which 77% were over 50)
    17% had had 1 jab
    45% have had two doses (of which 98% were over 50)

    Last figure will reflect the fact that the vast, vast majority of over 50s have had two doses.


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415373345906909186?s=20

    Not so good.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    We don't live in a Police State.

    If the public withdraw consent the Police can't enforce it.
    On a WhatsApp group with 14 United fans talking about this.

    Every single one of them want COVID passports to be used far more widely than just nightclubs, they want them for pubs, football etc. and immediately, not from Sept onwards.

    I think you fail to recognise that you may not have a very representative idea of the wider public views on these matters.
    I instinctively don't like the idea of Covid passports. But I do understand "why not now" instead of September.
    For all I oppose them I do understand the delay - it is unfair to introduce something until all those who will be effected have had the chance to get their two jabs. That won't be until mid September at the earliest. Jabs for the under 30s were started on June 7th. That means that if they enforce the 11 week gap then they will not start on second jabs for them until the last week of August.
    I'm in two minds on Covid Passports.

    On pure principle I think they're a terrible idea - but almost everything happening for last 18 months by then has been terrible.

    On the other hand if there are to be restrictions then placing them on Contrarian, Toby Young etc and not the rest of us is the least worst option.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,615
    edited July 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Surely the simple way to ensure 100% vaccine uptake is this:

    If you have been offered a vaccine, and refuse it, and you go on to infect someone with Covid, then they (or their estate) should be able to sue you. Likewise, you should be liable for any health care costs born by the NHS for treating someone you infected.

    I find it difficult to have any sympathy for anti-vaxxers, (excluding those who have medical reasons for not having it). I don't think it should be compulsory, but it should be the closest thing to compulsory.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, more volunteer Covid Marshalls and Inspectors can be recruited too with emergency powers to shut venues if not complying, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    Just take a break from your keyboard before you say something that you may regret for the rest of your political career
    There is nothing to regret, every government on the planet has plans to bring the army in as a last resort if civil order breaks down and a rioting mob the police cannot control threatens to take over, just reality.

    You have no sense, no political antenna, and as a party official embarrass those of us who are members and have to apologise for your idiotic confrontational statements

    Stick to analysing pollng, it is much better for you, and believe it or not those of us who are moderate conservatives
    So you would allow a rioting mob to take over the country rather than doing whatever necessary as a last resort to stop it?

    Just as well you will never be in charge then
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Too late now. They've reported the 60% figure all over the place - it was on RTE Six-One news earlier. It feeds into a developing narrative that the vaccines just aren't that much cop, contrary to the reality.
    The UK has almost 90% of adults single jabbed, and should pass 70% for both doses by about this time next week. And still there's panic over cases and hospital admissions, and serious discussion of restrictions returning in September. It is really no wonder if your average member of the public, who doesn't spend hours discussing the latest info and crunching the numbers but just picks up garbled signals from the TV and social media, might draw the conclusion that the vaccines are not all they've been cracked up to be.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    MaxPB said:


    Plus two weeks and I think the official date of everyone specifically being contacted was Friday so it's July 16th plus 10 weeks which is September 24th.

    150,000 adults in Newham (estimated) still to have a first vaccination but we are a "young" Borough so quite possible a lot still just being contacted.

    Despite @HYUFD's willingness to use the Army in East Ham High Street, I cannot see the local businesses (including the restaurants) complying with any kind of Covid passport scheme.

    Since the Council completely lacks the resources to enforce any such legislation, it's therefore meaningless.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332

    MattW said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    All that furious PB commentary and high blood pressure for almost nothing ... :smiley: .
    Who is actually being hospitalised with the Delta variant? Our analysis of latest PHE data (up to 25 June) shows that, in England:

    73% were under the age of 50
    63% were completely unvaccinated (of which 89% were <50)
    14% had had 1 jab
    15% had had 2 jabs (of which 81% were >50)


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415366302299000834?s=20
    It's also crucial to know how many were 2 jabs + 3 weeks, full effectiveness time.

    If you got a 2nd jab and went straight out and did something reckless, well, that's different.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Who is dying from Delta variant?

    90% were over 50
    36% were unvaccinated (of which 77% were over 50)
    17% had had 1 jab
    45% have had two doses (of which 98% were over 50)

    Last figure will reflect the fact that the vast, vast majority of over 50s have had two doses.


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415373345906909186?s=20

    Not so good.
    Nah, it's to be expected. When you take into account mortality risk for double vaccinated cohorts and expected infection rates it must be efficacy of well over 99.9% against death.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,615
    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    The public already ignore all sorts of laws, which is something I'm not happy about. Littering, for example. Also drug use.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,294
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, more volunteer Covid Marshalls and Inspectors can be recruited too with emergency powers to shut venues if not complying, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    Just take a break from your keyboard before you say something that you may regret for the rest of your political career
    There is nothing to regret, every government on the planet has plans to bring the army in as a last resort if civil order breaks down and a rioting mob the police cannot control threatens to take over, just reality.

    You have no sense, no political antenna, and as a party official embarrass those of us who are members and have to apologise for your idiotic confrontational statements

    Stick to analysing pollng, it is much better for you, and believe it or not those of us who are moderate conservatives
    So you would allow a rioting mob to take over the country rather than doing whatever necessary as a last resort to stop it?

    Just as well you will never be in charge then
    Just stop now and have a cup of tea
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    So as it said in SpaceTeens, let’s do the math:

    Earlier reports suggested around 12% of patients had been double jabbed.

    60% are from the unjabbed.

    The balance of 28% is presumably those who have had one jab.

    If 69% of people have been double jabbed, and of the remaining 31% two-thirds are children where the risk is extremely low I think that means you are roughly thirty times more likely to end up in hospital if you get sick without having a jab as compared to having been double vaccinated.

    This seems to me a more or less unanswerable case for GETTING THE FUCKING JAB.

    There is, of course a caveat - those who can’t be vaccinated for whatever reason. They still deserve our sympathy and help. But not a lockdown, because if we follow that logic, we’ll never unlock at all.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    That's still 40% from vaccinated people. I sincerely hope a lot of them were single vaxxed.
    I think the rough breakdown will be:

    0 jabs - 60%
    1 jab - 25-30%
    2 jabs - 10-15%

    Both times we've been given the stat it's been around this level.
    2 jags - 100% Prescott
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    The public already ignore all sorts of laws, which is something I'm not happy about. Littering, for example. Also drug use.
    You can fine and people are fined for littering, people are arrested and jailed for illegal drug use and supply even if not all of them are caught
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,192

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    edited July 2021

    Who is dying from Delta variant?

    90% were over 50
    36% were unvaccinated (of which 77% were over 50)
    17% had had 1 jab
    45% have had two doses (of which 98% were over 50)

    Last figure will reflect the fact that the vast, vast majority of over 50s have had two doses.


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415373345906909186?s=20

    I’d like to see a more detailed breakdown of the over 50s. I wonder what the average age of COVID deaths is among the fully vaccinated (+3 weeks).
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    In fairness Turbotubbs, don’t know about you but I’ve made careless slips of the tongue like that in presentations before, and felt a total dick when some questioner sweetly pointed it out.

    What is more alarming is that the media didn’t think to challenge it and check whether it was accurate. Max cried bullshit the instant he saw it, as did many others. Why could our press not do so?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    tlg86 said:

    I think we need to Chri

    Who is dying from Delta variant?

    90% were over 50
    36% were unvaccinated (of which 77% were over 50)
    17% had had 1 jab
    45% have had two doses (of which 98% were over 50)

    Last figure will reflect the fact that the vast, vast majority of over 50s have had two doses.


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415373345906909186?s=20

    I’d like to see a more detailed breakdown of the over 50s. I wonder what the average age of COVID deaths is among the fully vaccinated (+3 weeks).
    Well and over 50 to 90...thats a big age range...how many are old biddies that are very very old and frail and literally anything will kill them.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, more volunteer Covid Marshalls and Inspectors can be recruited too with emergency powers to shut venues if not complying, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    Just take a break from your keyboard before you say something that you may regret for the rest of your political career
    There is nothing to regret, every government on the planet has plans to bring the army in as a last resort if civil order breaks down and a rioting mob the police cannot control threatens to take over, just reality.

    You have no sense, no political antenna, and as a party official embarrass those of us who are members and have to apologise for your idiotic confrontational statements

    Stick to analysing pollng, it is much better for you, and believe it or not those of us who are moderate conservatives
    So you would allow a rioting mob to take over the country rather than doing whatever necessary as a last resort to stop it?

    Just as well you will never be in charge then
    Amusing that whilst you describe your aims as protecting society, you sound like a sociopath tonight.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    edited July 2021
    The nightclub two jabs and certificate thing by the end of September seems to be a burning platform to me.

    They're hoping the announcement ends up negating the need: it will drive lots of young people to get two jabs such that by the end of September it's epidemiologically insignificant to control them via vaccine certificates into nightclubs.

    The refuseniks will be such a low number it won't make any real difference to the spread, so they may as well cancel the bureaucracy.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    Tbh, it needs to be corrected in the next live TV address. It had a lot of people panicking for no reason at all. Even on here where I would hope there's a reasonably good level of data literacy people were too willing to accept the 60% number despite our last data points being 12% and 15% for double jabbed in hospital. Mindless journalists will run wild with it and come up with all kinds of fear mongering articles about how the vaccine doesn't work and everyone over 50 should stay locked up forever even after two doses or that this is proof we need to wait for booster shots and such.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    In fairness Turbotubbs, don’t know about you but I’ve made careless slips of the tongue like that in presentations before, and felt a total dick when some questioner sweetly pointed it out.

    What is more alarming is that the media didn’t think to challenge it and check whether it was accurate. Max cried bullshit the instant he saw it, as did many others. Why could our press not do so?
    Not sure we needed more evidence that our media are morons when it comes to anything numbers based. Not only did they not question it, they didn't even really seem to twig it was a potentially a big deal, rather losing their shit over nightclubs.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    maaarsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, more volunteer Covid Marshalls and Inspectors can be recruited too with emergency powers to shut venues if not complying, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    Just take a break from your keyboard before you say something that you may regret for the rest of your political career
    There is nothing to regret, every government on the planet has plans to bring the army in as a last resort if civil order breaks down and a rioting mob the police cannot control threatens to take over, just reality.

    You have no sense, no political antenna, and as a party official embarrass those of us who are members and have to apologise for your idiotic confrontational statements

    Stick to analysing pollng, it is much better for you, and believe it or not those of us who are moderate conservatives
    So you would allow a rioting mob to take over the country rather than doing whatever necessary as a last resort to stop it?

    Just as well you will never be in charge then
    Amusing that whilst you describe your aims as protecting society, you sound like a sociopath tonight.
    Protecting it from people that just want to go out and do legal things without the government looking over their shoulder....not in my view worth protecting it at that point we may as well just give up and annex ourselves to china. A state I get the feeling that HYUFD would feel right at home in
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Surely the simple way to ensure 100% vaccine uptake is this:

    If you have been offered a vaccine, and refuse it, and you go on to infect someone with Covid, then they (or their estate) should be able to sue you. Likewise, you should be liable for any health care costs born by the NHS for treating someone you infected.

    Impossible to prove in almost all cases, one would surmise.
    Civil court only requires balance of probability.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,192
    DavidL said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    That's still 40% from vaccinated people. I sincerely hope a lot of them were single vaxxed.
    Well from previous stats about 16% would be double, so I assume around 24% single.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    Tbh, it needs to be corrected in the next live TV address. It had a lot of people panicking for no reason at all. Even on here where I would hope there's a reasonably good level of data literacy people were too willing to accept the 60% number despite our last data points being 12% and 15% for double jabbed in hospital. Mindless journalists will run wild with it and come up with all kinds of fear mongering articles about how the vaccine doesn't work and everyone over 50 should stay locked up forever even after two doses or that this is proof we need to wait for booster shots and such.
    Prof Peston, the smartest man in the room, was of course aware this didn't sound right....

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1417158489269485573?s=19
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,816

    Who is dying from Delta variant?

    90% were over 50
    36% were unvaccinated (of which 77% were over 50)
    17% had had 1 jab
    45% have had two doses (of which 98% were over 50)

    Last figure will reflect the fact that the vast, vast majority of over 50s have had two doses.


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415373345906909186?s=20

    Not so good.
    The numbers in each category make a difference.

    If the ONS stats are right, about 23.4 million over-fifties are double-vaxxed, 1.0 million single-vaxxed, and 0.4 million unvaxxed.
    The Delta figures had deaths from the over-fifties coming in at 116 double-vaxxed, 41 single-vaxxed, and 71 unvaxxed.

    So just under 5 per million population in the double-vaxxed.
    41 per million population in the single-vaxxed
    177 per million population in the unvaxxed
    (Over the period that the stats were collected)
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,446
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    We don't live in a Police State.

    If the public withdraw consent the Police can't enforce it.
    On a WhatsApp group with 14 United fans talking about this.

    Every single one of them want COVID passports to be used far more widely than just nightclubs, they want them for pubs, football etc. and immediately, not from Sept onwards.

    I think you fail to recognise that you may not have a very representative idea of the wider public views on these matters.
    I instinctively don't like the idea of Covid passports. But I do understand "why not now" instead of September.
    To give the young folks time to sign up. If condition of entry to hospitality venues is double vaccination, then implementing it now would disqualify half the clientele (or nearly all of it for many bars and all nightclubs,) and most of the staff as well. You might as well order the sector to close again.
    What are underage drinkers supposed to do?
    I am only half joking. I was lucky enough to come of age in 1993, in the years preceding which landlords tended not to be too bothered if their customers were a few years below the legal drinking age - provided they acted like adults. A far better way of socialising drinking than illicit 20/20 behind the pavilion. I lament the lot of today's 15-17year olds.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    In fairness Turbotubbs, don’t know about you but I’ve made careless slips of the tongue like that in presentations before, and felt a total dick when some questioner sweetly pointed it out.

    What is more alarming is that the media didn’t think to challenge it and check whether it was accurate. Max cried bullshit the instant he saw it, as did many others. Why could our press not do so?
    Thick as shit.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    DavidL said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    That's still 40% from vaccinated people. I sincerely hope a lot of them were single vaxxed.
    Well from previous stats about 16% would be double, so I assume around 24% single.
    It will be interesting to see what it's like in 4 weeks when we're at ~75% double jabbed and 90% single jabbed and then 4 weeks later when we're at 92-93% single and 90% double. The sheer number of people in the vaccinated cohort might mean 30-40% of hospitalisations come from there but it would be comparing 50m people against 3m plus low hospitalisation propensity kids.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,192

    Who is dying from Delta variant?

    90% were over 50
    36% were unvaccinated (of which 77% were over 50)
    17% had had 1 jab
    45% have had two doses (of which 98% were over 50)

    Last figure will reflect the fact that the vast, vast majority of over 50s have had two doses.


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415373345906909186?s=20

    Not so good.
    Context. Most will be much older and with comorbitities. Virtually no one under 60 is dying of Covid in England now (from the data I can see).
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    ydoethur said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    In fairness Turbotubbs, don’t know about you but I’ve made careless slips of the tongue like that in presentations before, and felt a total dick when some questioner sweetly pointed it out.

    What is more alarming is that the media didn’t think to challenge it and check whether it was accurate. Max cried bullshit the instant he saw it, as did many others. Why could our press not do so?
    Thick as shit.
    Admirably succinct.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Who is dying from Delta variant?

    90% were over 50
    36% were unvaccinated (of which 77% were over 50)
    17% had had 1 jab
    45% have had two doses (of which 98% were over 50)

    Last figure will reflect the fact that the vast, vast majority of over 50s have had two doses.


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415373345906909186?s=20

    Not so good.
    The numbers in each category make a difference.

    If the ONS stats are right, about 23.4 million over-fifties are double-vaxxed, 1.0 million single-vaxxed, and 0.4 million unvaxxed.
    The Delta figures had deaths from the over-fifties coming in at 116 double-vaxxed, 41 single-vaxxed, and 71 unvaxxed.

    So just under 5 per million population in the double-vaxxed.
    41 per million population in the single-vaxxed
    177 per million population in the unvaxxed
    (Over the period that the stats were collected)
    I also wonder how many of those deaths are now actuarial ones of died with COVID or of it at 90+ when any kind of infection would be pretty lethal. The absolute numbers are so low in these studies it could now be a pretty big proportion.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    So we've gone from
    We Have To End All Restrictions Forever Hurrah Boris
    to
    We Have To Have Covid Passports Hurrah Boris

    Not being funny but for the last week or so you've been yammer, yammer, restrictions can't continue but can't end, yammer, yammer, keep wearing masks.

    I'd rather not see Covid Passports, but at least Covid Passports will actually work unlike mask mandates.

    Though if Passports are going ahead then they should only apply to places that already have door staff that check Tickets and/or ID [like nightclubs] and not pubs and restaurants etc
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,729
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    In fairness Turbotubbs, don’t know about you but I’ve made careless slips of the tongue like that in presentations before, and felt a total dick when some questioner sweetly pointed it out.

    What is more alarming is that the media didn’t think to challenge it and check whether it was accurate. Max cried bullshit the instant he saw it, as did many others. Why could our press not do so?
    Thick as shit.
    Admirably succinct.
    He should really have said shite, being a Scot, but (a) he is being kind and inclusivist and (b) he would have lost 9% of his succinctness.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,192
    ydoethur said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    In fairness Turbotubbs, don’t know about you but I’ve made careless slips of the tongue like that in presentations before, and felt a total dick when some questioner sweetly pointed it out.

    What is more alarming is that the media didn’t think to challenge it and check whether it was accurate. Max cried bullshit the instant he saw it, as did many others. Why could our press not do so?
    The media are not up to the job. They are too fixated on framing their own narrative to spot an obvious howler and pick up on it.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,949
    EXCLUSIVE: PM and Chancellor "almost there" on manifesto-busting hike to National Insurance Contributions - of at least 1% - to pay for Social Care blackhole. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/15636214/national-insurance-hike-to-pay-for-social-care/
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,446
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    Plus two weeks and I think the official date of everyone specifically being contacted was Friday so it's July 16th plus 10 weeks which is September 24th.

    150,000 adults in Newham (estimated) still to have a first vaccination but we are a "young" Borough so quite possible a lot still just being contacted.

    Despite @HYUFD's willingness to use the Army in East Ham High Street, I cannot see the local businesses (including the restaurants) complying with any kind of Covid passport scheme.

    Since the Council completely lacks the resources to enforce any such legislation, it's therefore meaningless.

    And a meaningless or unenforceable law is worse than no law at all.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138
    MaxPB said:

    Only on PB can we go from "holy shit the vaccines are shit so we might need to lockdown forever" back to "actually they're still pretty awesome, panic over" in the space of a few hours.

    You’ve clearly never been on Twitter
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,729

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, more volunteer Covid Marshalls and Inspectors can be recruited too with emergency powers to shut venues if not complying, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    Just take a break from your keyboard before you say something that you may regret for the rest of your political career
    There is nothing to regret, every government on the planet has plans to bring the army in as a last resort if civil order breaks down and a rioting mob the police cannot control threatens to take over, just reality.

    You have no sense, no political antenna, and as a party official embarrass those of us who are members and have to apologise for your idiotic confrontational statements

    Stick to analysing pollng, it is much better for you, and believe it or not those of us who are moderate conservatives
    So you would allow a rioting mob to take over the country rather than doing whatever necessary as a last resort to stop it?

    Just as well you will never be in charge then
    Just stop now and have a cup of tea
    No, no, this is great stuff. If chicken deliveries get held up at the Epping branch of ******* Fried Chicken, the tanks go in? Makes a change.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE: PM and Chancellor "almost there" on manifesto-busting hike to National Insurance Contributions - of at least 1% - to pay for Social Care blackhole. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/15636214/national-insurance-hike-to-pay-for-social-care/

    Get everyone to pay it, including the oldies, and it might wash.

    After all this is for care when you're in your early 80s for the last 2-3 years of your life.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE: PM and Chancellor "almost there" on manifesto-busting hike to National Insurance Contributions - of at least 1% - to pay for Social Care blackhole. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/15636214/national-insurance-hike-to-pay-for-social-care/

    1% tax rise in National Insurance being a 2% tax rise of course. 😡👎
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    The nightclub two jabs and certificate thing by the end of September seems to be a burning platform to me.

    They're hoping the announcement ends up negating the need: it will drive lots of young people to get two jabs such that by the end of September it's epidemiologically insignificant to control them via vaccine certificates into nightclubs.

    The refuseniks will be such a low number it won't make any real difference to the spread, so they may as well cancel the bureaucracy.

    I think you're probably right, at least I hope you are. The double jabbed to go to clubs and pubs is already scoring very highly on my Instagram Index™ so we might see first dose bookings go up a lot in the next week or so as 18-25 year olds get on and book their first jabs before the cut off date for being fully vaccinated by the end of September.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Here’s what I’d ask. Would the government consider mandating vaccine passports to enter places of worship?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,729
    tlg86 said:

    Here’s what I’d ask. Would the government consider mandating vaccine passports to enter places of worship?

    Absolutely. Especially C of E. It is after all the State Chursch.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232
    tlg86 said:

    Here’s what I’d ask. Would the government consider mandating vaccine passports to enter places of worship?

    My experience as an Anglican organist of twenty years’ standing is that social distancing isn’t a particular issue in most places of worship.

    The coffee afterwards, however...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    Guardian corrections and clarifications dept eat your heart out.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE: PM and Chancellor "almost there" on manifesto-busting hike to National Insurance Contributions - of at least 1% - to pay for Social Care blackhole. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/15636214/national-insurance-hike-to-pay-for-social-care/

    Get everyone to pay it, including the oldies, and it might wash.

    After all this is for care when you're in your early 80s for the last 2-3 years of your life.
    Except that NI, of course, is conveniently not paid by pensioners.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,729

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, more volunteer Covid Marshalls and Inspectors can be recruited too with emergency powers to shut venues if not complying, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    Just take a break from your keyboard before you say something that you may regret for the rest of your political career
    There is nothing to regret, every government on the planet has plans to bring the army in as a last resort if civil order breaks down and a rioting mob the police cannot control threatens to take over, just reality.

    You have no sense, no political antenna, and as a party official embarrass those of us who are members and have to apologise for your idiotic confrontational statements

    Stick to analysing pollng, it is much better for you, and believe it or not those of us who are moderate conservatives
    So you would allow a rioting mob to take over the country rather than doing whatever necessary as a last resort to stop it?

    Just as well you will never be in charge then
    Just stop now and have a cup of tea
    And people say the Labour Party is split!

    Tory 1 - bring in the army and stick it up 'em.
    Tory 2 - have a cup of tea.
    POint of order. Tory 2 is not a Real Tory. Or maybe Tory 1 is not a Real Tory.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    New thread.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,949
    Scores of health dep officials are also isolating after Sajid Javid’s positive. One source in the department told me some are avoiding going into the office for fear of getting Covid / getting pinged.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1417216459143585803
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier

    And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.

    Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.

    Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
    No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
    I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.

    But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.

    There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.

    Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.

    If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.

    Your choice.

    But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?

    The social collapse and economic collapse is coming anyway, courtesy of a government that cannot pay its way because of its own catastrophic policy decisions.
    It would have been much quicker and more severe without lockdowns, followed by vaccines.

    This is obvious to anyone of average or above average intelligence looking objectively at how things were moving in both April 2020 and January this year. Indeed, arguably moving too slowly made it much more severe than it need to have been, but I doubt if those are the ‘catastrophic policy decisions’ you refer to.

    I think you are of roughly average intelligence. But you are clearly not looking at the issue objectively. You want the world to be a certain way, therefore it must be so. Any facts that contradict it must be wrong.

    Well, it’s a free country and you’re entitled to that view. Just as the rest of us are entitled to be exasperated that the most aggressive anti-lockdown campaigner is making it more difficult to end lockdown.

    As they say in Chicago, don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.
    Just catching up on these posts.. As someone who once studied history I am wary of counter factual scenarios. But what I would suggest is this: were there to have been no lockdowns or vaccines then there would have ben likely to have been hundreds of thousands more deaths, every year, and until such point as the virus ran its course. Surely this is what would have happened at almost any other point in history than now. There would be no social and economic collapse; in pure economic terms there may have been benefits as most of the victims would have been old and economically inactive.

    Why was this approach not taken? The answer is simply because having hundreds of thousands of people dying was not politically possible. No politician was able to contemplate it. Hence contrarians party would fail. It already actually exists, in the Laurence Fox's anti lockdown party, and this is definetly failing.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE: PM and Chancellor "almost there" on manifesto-busting hike to National Insurance Contributions - of at least 1% - to pay for Social Care blackhole. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/15636214/national-insurance-hike-to-pay-for-social-care/

    Get everyone to pay it, including the oldies, and it might wash.

    After all this is for care when you're in your early 80s for the last 2-3 years of your life.
    Except that NI, of course, is conveniently not paid by pensioners.
    That's my point. You'd have to extend NI to pensioners (at least at 2% levels) for this to wash.

    As an aside, I don't like tax rises on working people. Last thing they need.
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Here’s what I’d ask. Would the government consider mandating vaccine passports to enter places of worship?

    My experience as an Anglican organist of twenty years’ standing is that social distancing isn’t a particular issue in most places of worship.

    The coffee afterwards, however...
    Standing playing with the organ a long time - won’t they let you sit down?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,530
    edited July 2021
    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Here’s what I’d ask. Would the government consider mandating vaccine passports to enter places of worship?

    Absolutely. Especially C of E. It is after all the State Chursch.
    Very variable age / attendance patterns in various CofE locations and services.

    Many are like County Cricket matches, but many others are packed.

    Students being at home through the summer, and normal reduced school holiday service patterns, will help.

    Suspect that some big problems will be in 'black-led' (not sure what the current PC term is) churches, as that will match the less-vaccinated parts of the population. Anglicans can fall back on "said" services. What happens in non-liturgical settings?

    Ditto Mosques, Temples, Gudwaras, and more traditional-African religious settings reopening.

    Also, language issues.

    Despite really excellent efforts to reach out to and within minority communities.

    But otoh these are all communities with organised leadership where there has not been a night time economy style 18 month whingefest.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Who is dying from Delta variant?

    90% were over 50
    36% were unvaccinated (of which 77% were over 50)
    17% had had 1 jab
    45% have had two doses (of which 98% were over 50)

    Last figure will reflect the fact that the vast, vast majority of over 50s have had two doses.


    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415373345906909186?s=20

    Not so good.
    Nah, it's to be expected. When you take into account mortality risk for double vaccinated cohorts and expected infection rates it must be efficacy of well over 99.9% against death.
    I agree with you that it's to be expected that a sizable minority, and eventually a small majority, of deaths will be amongst the vaccinated. But I strongly disagree with a figure of 99.9% efficacy. I think you have consistently over-estimated the reduction in mortality.

    I don't know of anything published on AZ, but extrapolation from hospitalization numbers suggests 95-98% reduction in mortality. It might end up 98-99% if we're really lucky. There are at least two separate pieces of published literature on mortality reduction of Pfizer, both of which found 96-97%.

    96-98% would be great, let's hope it's more towards the top of that range. 99.9% is a fantasy.

    (And this is the overall unconditional reduction. You have to knock of a factor of 5-10 for the conditional risk of death given infection. It's probably something like a 50-85% reduction in mortality, once infected.)

    --AS
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,294
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:


    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you and HY make
    gealbhan said:

    Boris is going to end up pissing off everyone, isn't he? From antivaxx nutjobs and zero-Covid nutjobs via wishful thinkers (there are an awful lot of those!) and genuine libertarians right through to the sensible.

    *****cks! Boris, the most authoritarian PM ever, and HY, the most authoritarian councillor ever, may have just saved the Tory party.

    Fair play to them for coming out and speaking up today. They have my vote sown up. Authoritarian is the way to go, time this dangerous libertarian claptrap was cancelled.
    If you, HYUFD and authoritarianism are the future of the party then count me and my vote out. 👎

    I missed the news conference. Is it just the nightclub passport scheme or was there anything else?
    All events with large crowds will require attendees to have Covid vaccine passports from September, an excellent decision from the PM
    You do realise that you could simply get a QR code belonging to someone else and store it on your phone? Or get someone else to take the vaccine for you. At Wembley the whole process collapsed. The system is not fit for that purpose. It is just theatre.
    Which all costs and takes effort and there are ways to counter forgery, the key thing is it is sending a clear message if you are unjabbed do not expect full freedom as a result
    Then people will just take back their freedom in acts of civil disobedience simple as that. I am with Richard here. If they implement it we don't take it meekly but put shove a spoke in the wheel as much as possible. Doesn't take that many to withdraw consent and start playing silly buggers to get it crashing down.
    The state, via the police and with the support of the majority will enforce it and nothing you can do about it
    Like the poll tax?
    Most voters opposed the poll tax, most voters back mandatory Covid vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1417173125100449795?s=20
    So what this is not about voting if even 10% refuse to comply with the restrictions there is no way you will be able to enforce them whatever the majority supports
    Easily, the police can shut clubs without mandatory Covid vaccine passport requirements, riot police can deal with the minority who riot
    Gosh you imagine it would be all crowds gathering how quaint. It would be tying up police resources, making sure they were so stretched they couldn't react just for starters
    Nothing more funds for the police cannot resolve, more volunteer Covid Marshalls and Inspectors can be recruited too with emergency powers to shut venues if not complying, if a real breakdown in public order the army can always be brought in too to restore it
    Just take a break from your keyboard before you say something that you may regret for the rest of your political career
    There is nothing to regret, every government on the planet has plans to bring the army in as a last resort if civil order breaks down and a rioting mob the police cannot control threatens to take over, just reality.

    You have no sense, no political antenna, and as a party official embarrass those of us who are members and have to apologise for your idiotic confrontational statements

    Stick to analysing pollng, it is much better for you, and believe it or not those of us who are moderate conservatives
    So you would allow a rioting mob to take over the country rather than doing whatever necessary as a last resort to stop it?

    Just as well you will never be in charge then
    Just stop now and have a cup of tea
    And people say the Labour Party is split!

    Tory 1 - bring in the army and stick it up 'em.
    Tory 2 - have a cup of tea.
    POint of order. Tory 2 is not a Real Tory. Or maybe Tory 1 is not a Real Tory.
    Tory 2 is the sensible moderate one
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,253
    Wait, people will put up with not being allowed to leave the house without government permission, will put up with a law against leaving the country, will put up with not being allowed to attend a loved one's funeral, but having to show you are vaccinated to go inside a nightclub means revolution?
    I don't get it.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,984
    MaxPB said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    Tbh, it needs to be corrected in the next live TV address. It had a lot of people panicking for no reason at all. Even on here where I would hope there's a reasonably good level of data literacy people were too willing to accept the 60% number despite our last data points being 12% and 15% for double jabbed in hospital. Mindless journalists will run wild with it and come up with all kinds of fear mongering articles about how the vaccine doesn't work and everyone over 50 should stay locked up forever even after two doses or that this is proof we need to wait for booster shots and such.
    Richard N corrected it within 10 minutes on here. Yes still the usual suspects ignored the data and descended into a fit of panic. Unedifying.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,432

    MaxPB said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    Tbh, it needs to be corrected in the next live TV address. It had a lot of people panicking for no reason at all. Even on here where I would hope there's a reasonably good level of data literacy people were too willing to accept the 60% number despite our last data points being 12% and 15% for double jabbed in hospital. Mindless journalists will run wild with it and come up with all kinds of fear mongering articles about how the vaccine doesn't work and everyone over 50 should stay locked up forever even after two doses or that this is proof we need to wait for booster shots and such.
    Richard N corrected it within 10 minutes on here. Yes still the usual suspects ignored the data and descended into a fit of panic. Unedifying.
    Makes you miss Leon, doesn't it? He'd have had fun predicting imminent doom, again.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    Christ, that’s some mistake. Glad it’s been corrected.
    Tbh, it needs to be corrected in the next live TV address. It had a lot of people panicking for no reason at all. Even on here where I would hope there's a reasonably good level of data literacy people were too willing to accept the 60% number despite our last data points being 12% and 15% for double jabbed in hospital. Mindless journalists will run wild with it and come up with all kinds of fear mongering articles about how the vaccine doesn't work and everyone over 50 should stay locked up forever even after two doses or that this is proof we need to wait for booster shots and such.
    Richard N corrected it within 10 minutes on here. Yes still the usual suspects ignored the data and descended into a fit of panic. Unedifying.
    Makes you miss Leon, doesn't it? He'd have had fun predicting imminent doom, again.
    He hasn’t even been gone 24 hours yet and here we are…
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    gealbhan said:

    My contribution this evening after that news conference

    F@!King, F&@kwitted, F&@king Motherf&$kers.

    We need a revolution. With a lot of unnecessary and way over the top violence thrown in for good measure.

    I missed the news conference. What happened?
    Another Johnson U-turn. He is like the fucking Magic Roundabout.
    Richard, if you come on this evening are reading this, the banned Sean Thomas is now posting impersonating you.
    Is this site cool with doxxing now?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,192
    DavidL said:

    Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252?s=20

    That's still 40% from vaccinated people. I sincerely hope a lot of them were single vaxxed.
    They will have been. So it's as we were. Phew.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,192
    moonshine said:

    gealbhan said:

    My contribution this evening after that news conference

    F@!King, F&@kwitted, F&@king Motherf&$kers.

    We need a revolution. With a lot of unnecessary and way over the top violence thrown in for good measure.

    I missed the news conference. What happened?
    Another Johnson U-turn. He is like the fucking Magic Roundabout.
    Richard, if you come on this evening are reading this, the banned Sean Thomas is now posting impersonating you.
    Is this site cool with doxxing now?
    Everyone knows who he is (apart from me) so it's not really doxxing.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,192
    kamski said:

    Wait, people will put up with not being allowed to leave the house without government permission, will put up with a law against leaving the country, will put up with not being allowed to attend a loved one's funeral, but having to show you are vaccinated to go inside a nightclub means revolution?
    I don't get it.

    I don't think there'd be an uprising or anything. Nevertheless I don't see them happening for nightclubs. Just one of those ideas that sound smart in theory but don't survive contact with the messy real world of UK 2021. I think it's just a rhetorical threat to encourage vaccination in the young. Will not see the light of day as an actuality.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    gealbhan said:

    My contribution this evening after that news conference

    F@!King, F&@kwitted, F&@king Motherf&$kers.

    We need a revolution. With a lot of unnecessary and way over the top violence thrown in for good measure.

    I missed the news conference. What happened?
    Another Johnson U-turn. He is like the fucking Magic Roundabout.
    Richard, if you come on this evening are reading this, the banned Sean Thomas is now posting impersonating you.
    Is this site cool with doxxing now?
    Everyone knows who he is (apart from me) so it's not really doxxing.
    Well it is.
This discussion has been closed.