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New betting market – when will LAB next get a poll lead? – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    We are nowhere near the peak
    We may not be - but how are you so sure?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    edited July 2021
    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1417149774034243586

    Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi says a negative test result will no longer be enough to gain access to nightclubs and large indoor events by end of Sept. They must show proof of two jabs.

    Govt is still "encouraging" venues to use Covid passes to prove Covid status but reserves right to mandate their use.

    ____
    Happy Freedom day everybody, lets have a laigh at the pointless protests, nobody wants restrictions forever, etc etc
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    We are nowhere near the peak
    I really don't know - the delta variant really does seem to have a massive spike followed by a fairly rapid downward curve (we saw it in India, and similar in Scotland).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I see that my outing you as a Walter Mitty was correct. My bullshitometer always goes to max each time I see any of your posts that no-one else wants to read.

    How did you put it, btw? Dr. Ishmael Z Oxon PhD. (sic)? 😂😂😂😂 I bet you haven't even got an 'ology! "The post was merely a gag anyway 😂😂😂😂

    Seriously though, I think you maybe are suffering from a severe case of another malaise: psychological projection, where you accuse others of issues that trouble yourself. Boring people is clearly a major issue for yourself, I don't imagine anyone goes "hey, IshmaelZ's post I must read that, it'll be really informative or funny!". I know I should feel sorry for you really, and I know that I really should, as a nice well brought up boy, be nice to twats, but I have to make an exception for you. Keep taking the tablets Walter. Love and kisses xxxx
    £10,000 at evens that I have a PhD from an English university. Happy to put the money in escrow with rcs1000 if you think I'm not good for it

    Your choices now:
    Take the bet
    Retract and apologise for the slur
    Say nothing and tacitly admit to a chronic and incurable case of micropenis syndrome

    Watcha gonna do?

    You really aren't very bright.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,333

    Granddaughter-in-law, a secondary school teacher, finished on Friday. Her husband, Eldest Grandson , in the same county, doesn't finish until Wednesday.
    Granddaughter Three finished two weeks ago.
    That's quite a lineage of teachers, well done.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,292


    It might ruin the tail end of afternoon tea.

    Virtual open topped victory-lap bus ride by Boris around Chequers televised at 1700. Well a presser at any rate

    Why can't he leave us alone?

    As somebody once sang "What have I, what have I, what have I done to deserve this?"

    Another session of pep talk and self-justification I imagine.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674
    Selebian said:

    That's really is different - it's an official position, with actual powers.

    To be clear - if Chris Whitty goes off to Channel 4 news saying the government has cocked up it's Covid policy, he can't stay as Chief Medical Officer, he has to resign. Likewise Patrick Vallance. They have responsibilities and official positions.

    People on SAGE weren't even named before there was a call for more transparency.
    It's no different at this time, though. Advising the government on a pandemic during the pandemic means having to accept that decisions go against you sometimes and learning to live with it.

    Maybe that's the issue, you see this from a science perspective and I'm looking at it from a public policy perspective. Normally the two aren't aligned but for the last year and a bit they have been and scientific advice must be aligned to policy and the advisers need to be able to go and sell a policy they disagree with or resign if they don't agree.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    If death rigby is anything to go by we are going to have 30 mins of questions on Boris being pinged.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556



    However, Government does not employ me. Were Govt to pay me my standard consultancy rate, I would keep quiet, as I would for any client. Government has chosen not to do that.

    Fark'nell.

    So during a national emergency you are not treating giving the government advice similarly to giving a fee-paying client advice and hence give the former a degraded service.

    All about the $$$.

    Amazing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,297
    edited July 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Why do you need to include, in the list of epithets, the appropriateness of which I wouldn't dream of commenting on, the term "pussy whipped".

    Plus "libtard" now that I think about it raises some questions.

    Altogether not your best moment.
    It was quite a good moment in fact. Piercing satire of all the bad people on the wrong side of history.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    DougSeal said:

    It's the "Independent SAGE" name that gets me. It gets them on TV where, not infrequently, they are posted as bing the real thing (admittedly Susan Michie and Steven Reicher are on both) when they are not either independent (their comms are by Carole Cadwalladr's organisation) nor SAGE (it's like me setting up a tax advisory service called "Independent HMRC" - that would get shut down quickly)
    Several of the more publicity-hungry members are a bit out there too, with their pronouncements, not always in areas they know much about. Not everyone on iSAGE is nutty, for sure.

    As for the past calls, well on campuses (at least up and down the country) there were scientists everywhere making those points.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    darkage said:

    I am not sure what Leon has done and I accept that the site can basically ban whoever they want, but I do think it is a bit unfortunate. His posts were unmatched in their entertainment value.
    They'll soon be back, and in greater numbers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786
    edited July 2021
    Polls do not seem to be damaging HMG

    @RedfieldWilton
    Westminster Voting Intention (19 July):

    Conservative 42% (+1)
    Labour 33% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 12 July

    Tied lowest % for Labour since May 2020.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497

    Was that Sean as well? Who else is Sean?

    Perhaps I am Sean? Perhaps you are? Is He all of us?
    You think the entirety of PB is in reality one person arguing with himself....someone could get a book out of that plot!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262
    Gnud said:

    They're not.
    According to the Evening Standard, they are anti the vaccination campaign - or at least against the possible introduction of mandatory vaccination. "No jabs for children, no coercion for adults" reads one banner.

    It should seriously be possible for a newspaper to report a demonstration in a more objectively informative way than writing things like this:

    "Despite the signs and placards promoting various unfounded conspiracy theories, it is unclear what has prompted an anti-lockdown demonstration on the day lockdown ended in the UK.

    However, a number of protestors appear to be registering their opposition to the Covid vaccine, which has saved millions of lives across the globe.
    "



    Isn't protesting like illegal now? Priti Patel will be out with the handcuffs.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    It is not so long ago that to question the standpoint of any scientist on here whatsoever was to invite a sustained and aggressive climb on from poster after poster.

    Now, questioning scientists' views and motivations is commonplace.
    I’m not questioning their motives. I’m questioning their name. I’ve no doubt they sincerely believe that what they advocate is best for the country. Your schtick was to pretend they are all power hungry super villains stroking cats in a lair under an extinct volcano
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,333

    And your evidence is
    that is my personal opinion, which is as good as anybody elses, especially the voters.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    kinabalu said:

    It was quite a good moment in fact. Piercing satire of all the bad people on the wrong side of history.
    I think in time you will reflect on your use of the word "libtard".

    I'm not expecting you to do so now, in the heat of posting but you will eventually and when you do, you will I'm sure do the right thing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,153
    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/exclusive-uk-warn-eu-it-may-deviate-brexit-deal-nireland-sources-2021-07-19/

    Britain will threaten this week to deviate from the Brexit deal unless the European Union shows more flexibility over Northern Ireland, one UK and three EU sources told Reuters, a move that could thrust the five-year Brexit divorce into tumult.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Westminster Voting Intention (19 July):

    Conservative 42% (+1)
    Labour 33% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 12 July

    Tied lowest % for Labour since May 2020.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1417152270609879041?s=20

    How will they recover from the Patel row?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I see that those of us expecting yet another example of Boris dithering and avoiding making a sensible choice until it's too late and the damage has already been done, and then being forced into a half-baked U-turn, are not being disappointed by today's new announcements.

    Still, two half-baked U-turns in five minutes is a bonus.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited July 2021

    Polls do not seem to be damaging HMG

    @RedfieldWilton
    Westminster Voting Intention (19 July):

    Conservative 42% (+1)
    Labour 33% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 12 July

    Tied lowest % for Labour since May 2020.

    9% lead...poor effort.

    As always, media got their finger on the pulse....

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/07/tories-are-learning-culture-wars-make-you-enemies-well-friends

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/priti-patel-racism-football-culture-war-1101497

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tories-libdems-byelection-culture-war_uk_60cb64b4e4b05fb35761894e
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    darkage said:

    I am not sure what Leon has done and I accept that the site can basically ban whoever they want, but I do think it is a bit unfortunate. His posts were unmatched in their entertainment value.
    He made an indefensible comment about the floods in Germany. I’ll miss his prose but not that kind of attitude. Unless he gets the huff about being “cancelled” he’ll be back in yet another guise.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640

    Demeaning? We're back to this morning's upset caused to the Clown Apologists.

    Repeat the same line over and over and over until it sticks. They (rightly) want to pin the blame on Delta on the man who kept the border with India open to let it come here and seed itself across the country.

    Calling it after him is only objectionable if you are an apologist.
    If the apologists can’t counter something, they simply deflect by wittering some spurious reason why the point they can’t answer should be ignored. Eg ‘it’s demeaning’, or ‘it doesn’t advance the debate’ or ‘it’s inappropriate’, etc, etc.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Gnud said:

    They're not.
    According to the Evening Standard, they are anti the vaccination campaign - or at least against the possible introduction of mandatory vaccination. "No jabs for children, no coercion for adults" reads one banner.

    It should seriously be possible for a newspaper to report a demonstration in a more objectively informative way than writing things like this:

    "Despite the signs and placards promoting various unfounded conspiracy theories, it is unclear what has prompted an anti-lockdown demonstration on the day lockdown ended in the UK.

    However, a number of protestors appear to be registering their opposition to the Covid vaccine, which has saved millions of lives across the globe.
    "



    And the government did just announce the vaccine is now mandatory for everyone unless they want to live a restricted 2nd class life. Rather amazed it is receiving so little comment.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    TOPPING said:

    There is a good reason for the 30-year rule. It is to enable governments to weigh up options, some of which might be contemporaneously controversial, and to be able to reach a decision without external pressure when people who glimpse some of the decision-making processes can't see the big picture.

    I think with Sage it is similar. ie the govt is making decisions, crucial, life-affecting decisions, with one of its flanks exposed to the public. Hence we might get to hear, often from SAGE, that unlocking will bring such and such a consequence, but we don't get to hear from behavioural psychologists that not unlocking will bring another set of consequences. Or from economists, or...or...

    That is the problem with SAGE. It seems only they simultaneously consult with govt, which is fantastic and great and vital, but also give a running commentary about the process.

    The 30-year rule applies to Government decision making. It's never applied to the inputs to Government decision making. Government always has to respond to external pressure, because that's how a democracy works. In normal time, it's all done slower and nobody takes as much notice, but scientists, like all other groups, are constantly writing reports, putting forth ideas and so on.

    Pre-pandemic, I've done two sorts of work: I've done direct, paid consultancy for Govt, where I delivered the work (to the Home Office) and commented no further on it. More often, I've been funded in other ways, but we have been invited to talk to (usually) the Department of Health, or to various agencies (NHS, PHE etc.), and we've done that, but we've also maintained our academic freedom and written our own outputs for public consumption. I am doing the same now. Were Govt to hire me, I'd shut up as they wished. Govt has not hired me: they sometimes ask my advice (well, mine as part of a wider group), so I give it, and if anyone else is interested, e.g. the media, I'll say the same to them.

    Everything is amped up during a pandemic, but I fail to see why certain posters who talk a lot about freedom think that the solution is to remove freedoms and muzzle people.

    Also, you say, "but we don't get to hear from behavioural psychologists that not unlocking will bring another set of consequences. Or from economists, or...or..." Yes, you do. Plenty of those people are in the media too. They all get to write academic papers too. They all get to tweet too. Etc.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262

    That's quite a lineage of teachers, well done.
    Wife was, too, and my father saw teaching as his way out of the Valleys in the 30's.

    Just in case of confusion, Granddaughter Three is still at school
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,297

    Governments are concerned with what people say ("flapping noise", if you like). That's because we live in a democracy, which is a good thing, yes?

    The point is that Government decides who to ask for advice and they decide what to do with that advice. Sure, some power rests in those advising on important issues, but it is not an untrammeled power. The fantasy that SAGE rules over us is a delusion. Government rules over us. The circumstances of a global pandemic can be said to rule over us. SAGE is a cog in a complex machine feeding advice into government.
    Voice of sanity. We don't half get some lurid tripe on here on this topic.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Good luck ti @NickPalmer and his testimony.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,524
    eek said:

    What is he expecting LNER to do. Kick 50% of their passengers off at Berwick?
    I assume he wants them to reinstate social distancing via mandatory reservations. Something that was hugely problematic and dropped as soon as possible.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    I see that those of us expecting yet another example of Boris dithering and avoiding making a sensible choice until it's too late and the damage has already been done, and then being forced into a half-baked U-turn, are not being disappointed by today's new announcements.

    Still, two half-baked U-turns in five minutes is a bonus.

    I really am getting confused. What's he done now?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    Earlier this year Nadhim Zahawi told Sky News that ministers ‘have absolutely no plans for vaccine passporting’, branding the concept ‘absolutely wrong’. On BBC, he angrily dismissed talk of a dystopian world of vaccine passports as fantasy. They’d be ‘discriminatory’, he said. https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1417150481449771013
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    MaxPB said:

    It's no different at this time, though. Advising the government on a pandemic during the pandemic means having to accept that decisions go against you sometimes and learning to live with it.

    Maybe that's the issue, you see this from a science perspective and I'm looking at it from a public policy perspective. Normally the two aren't aligned but for the last year and a bit they have been and scientific advice must be aligned to policy and the advisers need to be able to go and sell a policy they disagree with or resign if they don't agree.
    Given the importance of communicating a clear simple message to the public, and retaining public confidence as a precondition for having the public cooperate, I think it would have been a lot better for the principle of collective responsibility to apply.

    Disagree in private and then collectively support the decision made in public.

    Often it's better to make sure an imperfect plan is executed as well as possible than to undermine its implementation in search of a perfect plan.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,333

    Wife was, too, and my father saw teaching as his way out of the Valleys in the 30's.

    Just in case of confusion, Granddaughter Three is still at school
    My wife was similar. The only way out of Pembs in those days was teacher training college or nursing college! She choose teaching.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    Did GB News techs set up Boris video conferencing?
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    edited July 2021
    eek said:

    Yep - this is weekend reporting - I would definitely be waiting until Wednesday until announcing anything like "we've passed the peak".

    Heck I suspect the peak will be sometime next week but underreported as schools will be closed and the number of tests done is going to plummet.
    Daily changes in the cases figure:
    * Monday before last: up 12%;
    * last Monday: up 8%;
    * today: down 17%.

    Increase that would be necessary from today's figure to establish a new peak: 36%.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    edited July 2021

    The 30-year rule applies to Government decision making. It's never applied to the inputs to Government decision making. Government always has to respond to external pressure, because that's how a democracy works. In normal time, it's all done slower and nobody takes as much notice, but scientists, like all other groups, are constantly writing reports, putting forth ideas and so on.

    Pre-pandemic, I've done two sorts of work: I've done direct, paid consultancy for Govt, where I delivered the work (to the Home Office) and commented no further on it. More often, I've been funded in other ways, but we have been invited to talk to (usually) the Department of Health, or to various agencies (NHS, PHE etc.), and we've done that, but we've also maintained our academic freedom and written our own outputs for public consumption. I am doing the same now. Were Govt to hire me, I'd shut up as they wished. Govt has not hired me: they sometimes ask my advice (well, mine as part of a wider group), so I give it, and if anyone else is interested, e.g. the media, I'll say the same to them.

    Everything is amped up during a pandemic, but I fail to see why certain posters who talk a lot about freedom think that the solution is to remove freedoms and muzzle people.

    Also, you say, "but we don't get to hear from behavioural psychologists that not unlocking will bring another set of consequences. Or from economists, or...or..." Yes, you do. Plenty of those people are in the media too. They all get to write academic papers too. They all get to tweet too. Etc.
    You are wrong on the inputs to the decision making. It is all of a piece. You can't have those providing various inputs blabbing to the press as the danger of disinformation and misinterpretation is huge. The government puts all the inputs into a bucket and comes up with the policy.

    Look at my (admittedly tortured) analogy about the Coventry bombing.

    But you have slightly given it away - if the government had paid you you would have shut up. So you accept that shutting up is the ideal, just that - in a national emergency, btw - they didn't pay enough for you to have done so. Otherwise why charge for shutting up.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Carnyx said:

    I really am getting confused. What's he done now?
    1. Vaccine passports for young'uns wanting to go into nightclubs, with no opportunity of a test as an alternative. But not until end Sept (!!!)

    2. Double jabbed plus two weeks 'critical workers' to no longer have to isolate, effective immediately.

    Both are U-turns. Both are too late. Both are half-baked. Neither makes much sense because they are so half-baked.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,056
    Carnyx said:

    I really am getting confused. What's he done now?
    I assume that it's this;

    Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi says a negative test result will no longer be enough to gain access to nightclubs and large indoor events by end of Sept. They must show proof of two jabs.

    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1417149774034243586?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910

    Polls do not seem to be damaging HMG

    @RedfieldWilton
    Westminster Voting Intention (19 July):

    Conservative 42% (+1)
    Labour 33% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 12 July

    Tied lowest % for Labour since May 2020.

    One factor is that the population is getting older all the time, and that suits the Tories very nicely.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited July 2021

    I assume he wants them to reinstate social distancing via mandatory reservations. Something that was hugely problematic and dropped as soon as possible.
    Which is why I said Berwick because there is no chance LNER are going to impose social distancing south of the border, they need to earn every penny they possible can.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,153

    1. Vaccine passports for young'uns wanting to go into nightclubs, with no opportunity of a test as an alternative. But not until end Sept (!!!)

    2. Double jabbed plus two weeks 'critical workers' to no longer have to isolate, effective immediately.

    Both are U-turns. Both are too late. Both are half-baked. Neither makes much sense because they are so half-baked.
    Presumably 1 is just a ruse to encourage people to get vaccinated but will never actually happen.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262

    My wife was similar. The only way out of Pembs in those days was teacher training college or nursing college! She choose teaching.
    You could have staffed a decent sized school in S Essex in the early 50's with South Welsh teachers
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    @Telegraph .We have no plans to introduce vaccine passports. We have vaccinated, as of yesterday, 2,431,648 first dose and 412,167 second dose. No one has been given or will be required to have a vaccine passport. @NHSuk @Emily_JR_Lawson
    https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1349107577481809920
  • https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1417154765751001089

    Until Labour is seen as better, the Tories will continue to lead. But it is undeniable, the Tories and Government are becoming more unpopular
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    God Boris is a shyster.

    As though he had never considered not self-isolating.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Scott_xP said:

    Earlier this year Nadhim Zahawi told Sky News that ministers ‘have absolutely no plans for vaccine passporting’, branding the concept ‘absolutely wrong’. On BBC, he angrily dismissed talk of a dystopian world of vaccine passports as fantasy. They’d be ‘discriminatory’, he said. https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1417150481449771013

    To be fair the discriminatory part of it is mostly gone by end of September. They have said there will be exemptions for those who cant take it medically as well. I would still be against it, but not vehemently so, as I was at the time Zahawi made the original comments.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    1. Vaccine passports for young'uns wanting to go into nightclubs, with no opportunity of a test as an alternative. But not until end Sept (!!!)

    2. Double jabbed plus two weeks 'critical workers' to no longer have to isolate, effective immediately.

    Both are U-turns. Both are too late. Both are half-baked. Neither makes much sense because they are so half-baked.
    Thank you.

    There are parasites which modify their hosts' brains so as to ensure they are optimally transmitted. Like that cat parasite which is transmitted via other mammals and lodges in their brains; makes humans behave in a more risky way (Which is great when the cat is a lion on the savannah and the hominid Lucy of the footprints, who thereby becomes easier to catch for dinner; not so much when it'[s Pussy and her owner goes out and drives through a red light).

    Do you think it is having this effect on Mr Johnson? It all counts in the Darwinian stats ...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited July 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    @Telegraph .We have no plans to introduce vaccine passports. We have vaccinated, as of yesterday, 2,431,648 first dose and 412,167 second dose. No one has been given or will be required to have a vaccine passport. @NHSuk @Emily_JR_Lawson
    https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1349107577481809920

    Its like a thing called the Delta variant has come along.....where transmission is much higher, larger amount of vaccine escape....
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    edited July 2021
    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1417149774034243586

    Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi says a negative test result will no longer be enough to gain access to nightclubs and large indoor events by end of Sept. They must show proof of two jabs.

    Govt is still "encouraging" venues to use Covid passes to prove Covid status but reserves right to mandate their use.

    "When you have to shoot, shoot, don't talk!"

    Would Sajid Javid who is currently actually infected with SARSCoV2 and suffering Covid symptoms be allowed into an event, because he's double-jabbed? Or is it a negative test result AND double-jabbed status that would be needed?

  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Gnud said:

    Daily changes in the cases figure:
    * Monday before last: up 12%;
    * last Monday: up 8%;
    * today: down 17%.

    Increase that would be necessary from today's figure to establish a new peak: 36%.
    Cases by Date reported
    19/7 39,950
    12/7 34,471
    5/7 27,334

    And I really wouldn't be using that sort of day on day figure for anything as there are too many reasons why figures may be being reported on a different day.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    TOPPING said:

    God Boris is a shyster.

    As though he had never considered not self-isolating.

    Yes but what Ally Campbell? Or Pol Pot?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited July 2021

    1. Vaccine passports for young'uns wanting to go into nightclubs, with no opportunity of a test as an alternative. But not until end Sept (!!!)

    2. Double jabbed plus two weeks 'critical workers' to no longer have to isolate, effective immediately.

    Both are U-turns. Both are too late. Both are half-baked. Neither makes much sense because they are so half-baked.
    There is one advantage of having vaxports in clubs at the end of September, it means immunity via prior infection will be added to the mix in a club/gig at that point so - presuming cases aren't still going up by then (And God help us if they are) the probability of catching covid in a club in October will be less than if vaxports were in tommorow. I think...
    So it's good news for anyone who wants to see a gig in October, your Covid odds ratio may well be lower than the counterfactual.
    A convoluted benefit but I think it's correct...
  • Sorry but he's worried about nightclubs, why on Earth did he open them then
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1417154765751001089

    Until Labour is seen as better, the Tories will continue to lead. But it is undeniable, the Tories and Government are becoming more unpopular

    And if they keep getting more unpopular it will be thoroughly deserved. But yes, the toxicity of the Opposition to a critical portion of the electorate is as important as the incompetence of the Government, if not more so.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    1. Vaccine passports for young'uns wanting to go into nightclubs, with no opportunity of a test as an alternative. But not until end Sept (!!!)

    2. Double jabbed plus two weeks 'critical workers' to no longer have to isolate, effective immediately.

    Both are U-turns. Both are too late. Both are half-baked. Neither makes much sense because they are so half-baked.
    It's bollocks Richard. 16 and 17yr olds can join the army but not go to a nightclub.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited July 2021
    I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    MaxPB said:

    It's no different at this time, though. Advising the government on a pandemic during the pandemic means having to accept that decisions go against you sometimes and learning to live with it.

    Maybe that's the issue, you see this from a science perspective and I'm looking at it from a public policy perspective. Normally the two aren't aligned but for the last year and a bit they have been and scientific advice must be aligned to policy and the advisers need to be able to go and sell a policy they disagree with or resign if they don't agree.
    Yep, it's probably partly perspective. You say scientific advice has to be aligned to policy. There can only be one policy, but there can be multiple and conflicting scientific advice (there are some things we know, with a high degree of certainty, but Covid is new and there's lots of uncertainty - scientific advice early on said handwashing, it said likely no aerosol spread - it was wrong, as science often is and, as science always does, gathered new evidence and updated the scientific advice). I'd much rather than was all out in the open.

    When there's a public enquiry into a disaster, it comes to a single conclusion, but it publishes all the conflicting evidence received. This is different, I accept, as it's happening now, not reviewing the past. But it doesn't bother me in the slightest if the government is going against the collective advice of SAGE (I don't know really whether they are) in what's happened today, certainly not if they've gone against the advice of some members. SAGE provides advice. The government decides. That's how it must be, otherwise we we would be in a tyranny of scientists and democracy would be gone.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,686
    IshmaelZ said:

    £10,000 at evens that I have a PhD from an English university. Happy to put the money in escrow with rcs1000 if you think I'm not good for it

    Your choices now:
    Take the bet
    Retract and apologise for the slur
    Say nothing and tacitly admit to a chronic and incurable case of micropenis syndrome

    Watcha gonna do?

    You really aren't very bright.
    You are a really very unpleasant person. You have a lot of issues and I see you are also worried about your penis size. Not a PhD from an Oxford college then? That was "a gag". 😂. Classic Walter Mitty stuff. Pretending to be what you wish you were. We should all feel sorry for you.

    I am sure you have probably seen my previous posts, Walter, where I have said I don't bet, I come on here for the politics. I don't need to bet with you, but I feel a little guilty that I am amused I obviously got under your skin.

    I have no problem with my level of intelligence, but based upon your posts I guess both my IQ, and definitely my EQ are considerably higher than yours and my level of material success off the scale compared to an angry little saddo such as yourself. I have no need to prove any of it, unlike yourself. Your desire to boast and prove yourself demonstrates your immaturity and general underachievement.

    Now go and calm down.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Presumably 1 is just a ruse to encourage people to get vaccinated but will never actually happen.
    That would suggest there is a sentient being deciding policy. It's an interesting hypothesis, but seems a bit far-fetched.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1417154765751001089

    Until Labour is seen as better, the Tories will continue to lead. But it is undeniable, the Tories and Government are becoming more unpopular

    Mandatory vaccine passports for young people at nightclubs.

    The liberal democrats will probably be against. What should labour do?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243
    PCR positivity rate continues to increase - up to almost 10% (9.7%).

    Suggests to me the lower case numbers a function of reporting cycles rather than anything to be optimistic about.

    I am interested in how high certain stats can go before this burns out (or, and it's a depressing thought, the government loses its nerve and re-introduces restrictions).

    For example, the new ONS antibody survey out on Wednesday will be interesting. The last one two weeks prior suggested 90% of adults in England had antibodies... how high can that go before herd immunity kicks in?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,297
    edited July 2021

    It's just demeaning for the Leader of the Opposition to use language like "the Johnson Variant".

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1417103159047118849

    Lifting all restrictions at once is reckless - and doing so when the Johnson Variant is already out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    Labour does not support the Government’s plan.

    Boris Johnson’s incompetence will have deadly consequences for the British public.

    Oh c'mon, William. You talk such drivel all the time now. Such a contrast with the glory days. It's like you've had a lobotomy.

    Bring back, bring back, bring back old William to PB, PB ... bring back, bring back, bring back old William to PB. :smile:

    This is good punchy tabloid politics from the Opposition leader. Much needed and long overdue. Hopefully something we'll see more of.

    While Johnson jabbers, Keir jabs.

    When they go low, we stamp on their foot and kick them in the goolies.

    Hardball, like Hamilton did yesterday. It works.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    Well that was a waste of time.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    TOPPING said:

    Fark'nell.

    So during a national emergency you are not treating giving the government advice similarly to giving a fee-paying client advice and hence give the former a degraded service.

    All about the $$$.

    Amazing.
    During an international emergency, Pfizer are treating pricing* for life-saving vaccines similarly to how they would treat pricing for any other vaccination/pharmaceutical - i.e. looking at the market and pricing of competitors.

    All about the $$$

    And they've created an amazing vaccine that is saving lives the world over. Better in some ways than AZN, preferable, it seems, in the young, faster acting.

    Amazing (in a good way)

    *I think? Or have they added an altruistic discount?
  • Mandatory vaccine passports for young people at nightclubs.

    The liberal democrats will probably be against. What should labour do?
    Personally I think Labour should say we should close the night clubs and not bother with the passports
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    1. Vaccine passports for young'uns wanting to go into nightclubs, with no opportunity of a test as an alternative. But not until end Sept (!!!)

    2. Double jabbed plus two weeks 'critical workers' to no longer have to isolate, effective immediately.

    Both are U-turns. Both are too late. Both are half-baked. Neither makes much sense because they are so half-baked.
    Considering the numbers of my double jabbed colleagues who are testing positive, I would only let critical workers contacts back in FFP3 masks, in order to protect patients. Indeed there is a good case for FFP3 masks being the default for HCW.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Presumably 1 is just a ruse to encourage people to get vaccinated but will never actually happen.
    Indeed, 30 Sep is the end of the summer (actually astronomical Autumn!) and is psychologically an eternity away when the schools are still in.

    A massive nudge to get young guns to get their jabs: many won’t be arsed or won’t turn up (late out, forgot, got a better offer). So this is just to incentivise it IMO.
  • Some really nasty posts today from a few, I'm going for the time being until it calms down, see ya
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    Great questions from the public.
    Boris offloaded the first one on to JVT, even though it is a political issue.
    Question 2. Don't know.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,297
    DavidL said:

    I don't even understand what he means. What on earth is the Johnson Variant?
    The one he let in from India.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    MaxPB said:

    None of those people are official government advisors. You are. The government has taken a decision, deal with it. You should have made a better argument rather than presenting 100k cases per day by June 21st that was completely incredulous.
    Lots and lots and lots of people are official government advisors and none of them are censored. Here's a list: https://www.gov.uk/government/groups Look how many groups there are. The 4G/TV Co-existence Oversight Board, the Abstraction Reform Advisory Group, the Academy for Social Justice Commissioning learning groups, the Accelerated Capability Environment (ACE), the Action Group on Cross Border Remittances, and on, and on, and on.

    So, Inge Hansen is on the 4G/TV Co-existence Oversight Board and here's Inge Hansen talking at the 7th Annual European Spectrum Management Conference, https://eu-ems.com/speakers.asp?event_id=112&page_id=854 Because Inge Hansen, like everyone else who ever sits on a govt advisory board, is free to go about her work and talk to anyone else who will listen.

    This is entirely normal and how it has always worked. The only difference is that you don't care what Inge Hansen said on the 4G/TV Co-existence Oversight Board, but you do care what is said on SAGE. The problem is not people who advise govt talking in other forums, the problem is you wanting to censor voices you don't want to hear.

    Well, tough. We live in a free society. I can talk to who I want (barring my choice to enter into a contractual relationship that prohibits that). You can talk to who you want (ditto). Freedom -- it's great!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Dow down over 800 points. Worst day in 2021 so far. Covid variants spooking markets."

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1417155210363949064
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    BigRich said:

    Two things they could do to incres the rate of vaccination and therefore slow the spread quicker:

    1) Allow under 18s that what to get vaccinated, to have the Jab,

    2) Bring down the wait for the second Jab,

    and 2 more radical policy's that could also be implemented:

    1) Acquire a border range of vaccines, including the Johnson and Johnson, the Russian and even a few of the Chines vaccines, and then give the people who have sead no to vaccines so far a chose of which vaccine. this will not get everybody but there will be some who when empowered to make a chose about which vaccine will feel more willing to take part in the overall program.

    2) Empower/enable company's that wish to have a 'you must be vaccinated to work/do business here' policy to implement that. AIUI nursing homes will be able to implement that policy from September, I think any company should be able to do that form tomorrow.
    Both of those latter two ideas are really interesting.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,567
    DougSeal said:

    It's the "Independent SAGE" name that gets me. It gets them on TV where, not infrequently, they are posted as bing the real thing (admittedly Susan Michie and Steven Reicher are on both) when they are not either independent (their comms are by Carole Cadwalladr's organisation) nor SAGE (it's like me setting up a tax advisory service called "Independent HMRC" - that would get shut down quickly)
    Honestly I think of independent as meaning they are independent of government, which is obviously true.
    It's a way of acknowledging they are not official. As for calling themselves SAGE... it's just good branding I think.

    At a minimum they've pushed the real SAGE into being more transparent which is a good thing.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Personally I think Labour should say we should close the night clubs and not bother with the passports
    Young voters are part of what is left of your vote. Looks like you are intent on losing that too.

    FFS.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Ratters said:

    PCR positivity rate continues to increase - up to almost 10% (9.7%).

    Suggests to me the lower case numbers a function of reporting cycles rather than anything to be optimistic about.

    I am interested in how high certain stats can go before this burns out (or, and it's a depressing thought, the government loses its nerve and re-introduces restrictions).

    For example, the new ONS antibody survey out on Wednesday will be interesting. The last one two weeks prior suggested 90% of adults in England had antibodies... how high can that go before herd immunity kicks in?

    As there are no improved vaccines on the immediate horizon, the JCVI have decided for whatever reason most 12 - 17 and 2/3rds shouldn't get them and we're now demand limited on 1st doses and time limited on 2nds, we need to let this current wave be the "true" one providing the NHS doesn't collapse.
    Vax uptake in the more vulnerable to hospitalisation, 50+ is astoundingly good - so we might as well go for it now tbh.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,272
    I think the midnight nightclub scenes on the news shown throughout the day have spooked the government a bit. The thing is they should have seen it coming.

    3 million 18-30 year olds have not had a vaccine...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Its like a thing called the Delta variant has come along.....where transmission is much higher, larger amount of vaccine escape....
    Are you trying to claim a COVID variant with both of these properties was unforeseeable? I am fully in favour of vaccine passports but the government should have been honest from the start that they would have been needed
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973

    I assume that it's this;

    Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi says a negative test result will no longer be enough to gain access to nightclubs and large indoor events by end of Sept. They must show proof of two jabs.

    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1417149774034243586?s=20
    and no trainers (or none that TSE wouldn't be seen dead in).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Did PB notice this?

    Apoparently unprecedented (Graun) Amber Extreme Heat warning for southern and western parts for several days (roughly anything west or south of Stoke on Trent, but maps provided)

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-07-19
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    We may not be - but how are you so sure?
    A reasoned analysis of the data that takes into account more than temporary blip in the data.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674
    Selebian said:

    Yep, it's probably partly perspective. You say scientific advice has to be aligned to policy. There can only be one policy, but there can be multiple and conflicting scientific advice (there are some things we know, with a high degree of certainty, but Covid is new and there's lots of uncertainty - scientific advice early on said handwashing, it said likely no aerosol spread - it was wrong, as science often is and, as science always does, gathered new evidence and updated the scientific advice). I'd much rather than was all out in the open.

    When there's a public enquiry into a disaster, it comes to a single conclusion, but it publishes all the conflicting evidence received. This is different, I accept, as it's happening now, not reviewing the past. But it doesn't bother me in the slightest if the government is going against the collective advice of SAGE (I don't know really whether they are) in what's happened today, certainly not if they've gone against the advice of some members. SAGE provides advice. The government decides. That's how it must be, otherwise we we would be in a tyranny of scientists and democracy would be gone.
    Again, the issue is that we're in the middle of a pandemic and scientific advice invariably becomes public policy. As I said earlier, I have no issue with dissent and no issue with minutes being published. I'd want that to happen. What I absolutely hate seeing is some sour scientist who is unable to accept being on the losing side of an argument mouthing off to the Guardian and BBC about why the government is wrong and they're on SAGE and the government is anti-science because they're ignoring the advice of one scienctist.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Dow down over 800 points. Worst day in 2021 so far. Covid variants spooking markets."

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1417155210363949064

    It is not covid variants. It is the desperate policy responses of Western governments.

    The chickens are coming home to roost.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751
    rcs1000 said:

    Both of those latter two ideas are really interesting.
    Especially the latter.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    jonny83 said:

    I think the midnight nightclub scenes on the news shown throughout the day have spooked the government a bit. The thing is they should have seen it coming.

    3 million 18-30 year olds have not had a vaccine...

    Nor any nooky (or at least greatly reduced quantity thereof).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    Personally I think Labour should say we should close the night clubs and not bother with the passports
    And what of the owners and those that work there? Throw them on the scrap heap? What of those that enjoy going there? What of the children never born because their parents stayed at home and never met?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,056

    Indeed, 30 Sep is the end of the summer (actually astronomical Autumn!) and is psychologically an eternity away when the schools are still in.

    A massive nudge to get young guns to get their jabs: many won’t be arsed or won’t turn up (late out, forgot, got a better offer). So this is just to incentivise it IMO.
    Though if we are going to continue to insist on the 8 week gap, having the second jab by the end of September means doing the first in the next 3 weeks or so, which might be pushing it. And whilst a proportion of da yoot frequent nightclubs, it's a minority, surely?

    And the big question is still- if this is a good idea then, why isn't it a good idea now? Except that nobody thought about it 8 weeks ago, when it might have been useful?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Personally I think Labour should say we should close the night clubs and not bother with the passports
    In this particular instance I'm going to side with the Government. We've had nearly a year-and-a-half of cricket batting youngsters and banning things they enjoy to protect the old. Enough.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    Fair enough. I am very certain that I am not integral to the Govt's decision-making process. I will now continue to exercise the birthright of all Englishmen to bitch about stuff.

    That would be my key point. SAGE does not have this hold over Govt that some fantasise about. Govt is constantly doing things that SAGE participants disagree with. That's why you hear so much of what has been described as bitching to the media! We are providing advice, among many. So I advise on how much people are following advice. I've been in the media recently talking about people's behaviours around using the NHS COVID-19 App. Political decisions, how you make those extremely difficult choices weighing up deaths from the illness, pressures on the NHS, costs to the Treasury, restrictions on people's daily lives, impact on the economy, etc., etc., etc., those are absolutely definitely not being made in SAGE.
    I hear you. And as I have said, Boris bears a lot of the blame for this. He is Prime Minister.

    But I also believe that all those people advising the government should not give a running commentary (!) on what they are doing. You have said you have been on the media, in which case you can't double hat on advising the government and speaking freely to the press about government actions. It's one or the other because you are part of the former, whether they act on your specific advice or not, it all forms part of the decision-making. And the government should be allowed to make those decisions without one element of the input being plastered all over the media.

    When it's all over write a book about it. I'd buy it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Foxy said:

    Considering the numbers of my double jabbed colleagues who are testing positive, I would only let critical workers contacts back in FFP3 masks, in order to protect patients. Indeed there is a good case for FFP3 masks being the default for HCW.
    Quite - I assume we are not limited by supply any more and it makes sense.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,333

    Sorry but he's worried about nightclubs, why on Earth did he open them then

    I agree, what use are they in this world? apart from keeping the alcoholic beverage industry in "gravy" (sorry, mixed metaphor)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    dixiedean said:

    Great questions from the public.
    Boris offloaded the first one on to JVT, even though it is a political issue.
    Question 2. Don't know.

    I assume you realise this, but you know the government selects the questions the public ask? I'm mean they are literally the straight men for the message that the government wants to put out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,297

    Only 2 of Leon is somewhat unrepresentative.
    True! Thing is, great to have an alias or 4, but everybody except me seems to know exactly who he is. You can't hide online if you're a massive A or B list celeb in the real world.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    and no trainers (or none that TSE wouldn't be seen dead in).
    What does the modern youth wear then if not trainers? (Genuinly curious - can't imagine they wear Clarks Cornish pasties or the modern equivalents.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    I agree, what use are they in this world? apart from keeping the alcoholic beverage industry in "gravy" (sorry, mixed metaphor)
    Sticky carpets?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004

    Personally I think Labour should say we should close the night clubs and not bother with the passports
    @Contrarian Please note, THIS is what an actual anti-freedom agenda looks like.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,153

    Though if we are going to continue to insist on the 8 week gap, having the second jab by the end of September means doing the first in the next 3 weeks or so, which might be pushing it. And whilst a proportion of da yoot frequent nightclubs, it's a minority, surely?

    And the big question is still- if this is a good idea then, why isn't it a good idea now? Except that nobody thought about it 8 weeks ago, when it might have been useful?
    They probably saw the spike in vaccination bookings after Macron said it would be mandatory to go to bars and thought they'd try the same trick.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636

    I agree, what use are they in this world? apart from keeping the alcoholic beverage industry in "gravy" (sorry, mixed metaphor)
    What use is anything? What a depressing existence to be restricted to activities which are 'useful'.
This discussion has been closed.