Well up to a point. When you have members of SAGE who are members of a political party whose avowed intent is to bring down capitalism and replace it with something else, you do wonder about the objectivity of the advice received.
It's up to the Government whether Susan Michie is on SAGE or its sub-committees, or not. If you are concerned about the decision, address your concerns to the Prime Minister.
Not really. Imagine the flapping noise if the Govt made a decision to exclude Michie.
SAGE was reported in July 2020 to consist of around 20 participants at any one given time.[13] Participants are drawn from both academia and practice, and the participants of a particular meeting are decided upon by the British Government Chief Scientific Adviser and the Chief Medical Officer for England, depending on the expertise required. They are not generally employed by government. They do not operate under government instruction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_Advisory_Group_for_Emergencies
NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"
@Leon posting while pissed? To be serious, is there, or could there be, a mechanism within Vanilla to simply remove offending posts (including where they are quoted) rather than ban the poster?
He seemed particularly hyper today? It was like reading a play ‘Death of a Flint Knapper’. Freedom Day at last, straight up to the bar ordering shots. Ice Cold in Alex, not.
Seriously, if someone is in mind to revel in deaths due to natural disaster, with a cultural or racial slant to it, there has to be sanction or the whole site is in repute?
That's Boris's hardcore vote, that's Labour's big problem. They need Brexit to fade away to have a chance of winning, or even leading
Go back to last November, when it has to be said that everything was falling apart, the Conservative share looks like it fell to about 39 %, which meant individual polls coming in the range 36 - 42 % ish. So I reckon there's a lot in the Brexit Bedrock theory.
However, 1 the Bedrock isn't, by itself, quite enough. 40 percent loses to a reasonably efficiently-distributed opposition, even if each component of that opposition is well behind.
2 Bedrock is also subject to erosion. One of the grim fascinations of the next few years might be watching how the UK comes to terms with Brexit if the settled majority view becomes "well that was a mistake but we're stuck with it". (I'm not saying that will happen, but it's a plausible extrapolation from here.)
The other way of looking at things is that, in 2020 there were three events that cut though enough to shift polls in a reasonably solid L+3/C-3 way. Durham, Exam grades and December. If the current score is 41-33 (say), a similar cockup takes the average to 38-36, in which case you'd expect an outlier to give a Labour lead. Curtaingate at the end of April came damn close.
So this is a bet on the Johnson government not screwing up, even temporarily, for the rest of 2021. Put like that, do you feel lucky, Boris? Do you?
My suspicion is that this government's most dangerous moment is starting now. If Freedom Day and aftermath proves to be any of: unpopular; fatal to granny; fatal to some young people; chaotically reversible; unsustainable to the NHS etc, even Boris may be in difficulties explaining himself.
But, unlike many people here, I don't think Labour can sit back and assume the support as The Other Lot. Unless they can demonstrate a realistic competence to do better, wiser, more farsighted they may gain little from it.
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).
Would be a start.
But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....
Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
Better you get out of the way and let the young energetic and potentially productive in our society get on with creating wealth.
Seriously. Want us to keep paying for your pensions, benefits and services? just let us get on with it?
Why is nobody in the tory party presenting the electorate with what the choice really is?Back to your lives or penury. That was always the choice
Get double jabbed and Covid vaccination passports not an issue for you and you can get back to your lives
Utter rubbish.
I am double jabbed. Domestic vaccination passports would still be a PITA.
My Conservative principles are about protecting liberty. Not providing a comfort blanket for the frit.
By contrast 55% of voters overall and 44% of Tory voters think lifting restrictions today was wrong, Covid passports for nightclubs would help ease their concerns, certainly until everyone has been offered a second jab https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lzpfmyen4d/TheTimes_FreedomDay_210716.pdf
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).
Would be a start.
But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....
Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
Maybe but would also cut the rise in cases
A representative from the nightclub industry said on talkradio today that, even with current rules, it will take this sector five years to repair its finances. Five years. Many operators have taken out loans or remortgaged houses to get them past this.
So your proposals would destroy a whole industry for good. In case you were wondering.
All to stop a few oldies from sh8tting themselves a bit less, whilst still demanding the services and benefits the nightclub industry helps to fund.
No it wouldn't. Austria has done it successfully as has France, as have a number of clubs in NYC and LA.
If anything mandatory Covid vaccination passports could encourage customers to nightclubs as they would know their fellow dancers had all been vaccinated.
Very unconservative, there, HYUFD, for our resident let me tell you who is or isn't a Conservative poster.
Maybe not libertarian no but I am a conservative, I have never been a libertarian
Was going to hospital today for routine tests. Just had a call. My consultant - double jabbed - has just been pinged. So he is now isolating and his entire list thrown into chaos. Bring forward the Aug isolation rules. It's madness
I spoke to a friend at the weekend who works in the NHS – her trust has told all employees delete the app as otherwise they won't be able to run services.
I wonder if the deep irony of the NHS telling NHS staff to delete the NHS app will be lost on Bozza?
I don't understand tbh why so many installed it in the first place. It was obvious it was going to not work very well as we had other euro countries lack of success at track and trace to look at.
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).
Would be a start.
But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....
Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
Maybe but would also cut the rise in cases
A representative from the nightclub industry said on talkradio today that, even with current rules, it will take this sector five years to repair its finances. Five years. Many operators have taken out loans or remortgaged houses to get them past this.
So your proposals would destroy a whole industry for good. In case you were wondering.
All to stop a few oldies from sh8tting themselves a bit less, whilst still demanding the services and benefits the nightclub industry helps to fund.
No it wouldn't. Austria has done it successfully as has France, as have a number of clubs in NYC and LA.
If anything mandatory Covid vaccination passports could encourage customers to nightclubs as they would know their fellow dancers had all been vaccinated.
Very unconservative, there, HYUFD, for our resident let me tell you who is or isn't a Conservative poster.
He is also wrong because it would just make illegal raves a thing again and they would be more fun to goto than a "passport please" club
The police correctly broke up illegal raves during lockdown and could do so again
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).
Would be a start.
But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....
Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
Better you get out of the way and let the young energetic and potentially productive in our society get on with creating wealth.
Seriously. Want us to keep paying for your pensions, benefits and services? just let us get on with it?
Why is nobody in the tory party presenting the electorate with what the choice really is?Back to your lives or penury. That was always the choice
Get double jabbed and Covid vaccination passports not an issue for you and you can get back to your lives
Utter rubbish.
I am double jabbed. Domestic vaccination passports would still be a PITA.
My Conservative principles are about protecting liberty. Not providing a comfort blanket for the frit.
By contrast 55% of voters overall and 44% of Tory voters think lifting restrictions today was wrong, Covid passports for nightclubs would help ease their concerns, certainly until everyone has been offered a second jab https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lzpfmyen4d/TheTimes_FreedomDay_210716.pdf
They are not being told the full truth and you know it.
Ask them if they are prepared to take freezes in benefits and pension payments, lower public sector salaries and fewer services as a corollary of continued restrictions and let's see the result then.
Because that is the corollary. And you as a conservative should surely grasp that.
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
I'm baffled - what lockdown are they protesting about today? Being politely asked to wear a mask in certain places? 'Cos surely that all that's left (or am I missing something?) It's almost like they just want to cause trouble...
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
Covid, remarkably is a helpful comfort blanket for Johnson.
I cannot see anything but choppy economic waters between now and GE 2024. And when I say choppy I mean some enormous white horses riding the waves
If that doesn't change the dynamic Johnson can just get on with settling into Chequers and enjoying his wallpaper at No 10.
Vaccination first dose Vaccination second dose FFP3 mask Ventilation Distancing
(With outdoors ventilation being ahead of the FFP3 mask)
Not appearing in top 5: Wearing a [cloth] mask Washing hands Cleaning surfaces
I would agree - with the possible exception of cloth mask + distancing. A sneeze contained by a cloth mask is way better than a sneeze at 2.5m.
[ETA: Unless you mean "self-protection" in which case yes, distancing is better than a cloth mask; if you mean "community protection" then cloth masks would be more efficacious than distancing, I think]
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
I'm baffled - what lockdown are they protesting about today? Being politely asked to wear a mask in certain places? 'Cos surely that all that's left (or am I missing something?) It's almost like they just want to cause trouble...
I think this is the hardcore of "people up for a scrap" and "people who believe that the whole of covid is some kind of hoax/conspiracy".
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
I'm baffled - what lockdown are they protesting about today? Being politely asked to wear a mask in certain places? 'Cos surely that all that's left (or am I missing something?) It's almost like they just want to cause trouble...
The government, in introducing unprecedented restrictions on our freedoms, have moved the overton window of what policy tools might be employed in future.
There is plenty of talk of winter restrictions if...if...if...all at the absolute discretion of the government. They have put us in a state whereby they are able, at a moment's notice and with minimal scrutiny, to swipe away our liberties again.
On those terms we now live in an illiberal state.
That, I hope, is what those people are protesting.
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
I'm baffled - what lockdown are they protesting about today? Being politely asked to wear a mask in certain places? 'Cos surely that all that's left (or am I missing something?) It's almost like they just want to cause trouble...
I think this is the hardcore of "people up for a scrap" and "people who believe that the whole of covid is some kind of hoax/conspiracy".
There seem to be a remarkable proportion of physically able men of working age with nowt better to do on a Monday afternoon. I thought there was a labour shortage?
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
I'm baffled - what lockdown are they protesting about today? Being politely asked to wear a mask in certain places? 'Cos surely that all that's left (or am I missing something?) It's almost like they just want to cause trouble...
The government, in introducing unprecedented restrictions on our freedoms, have moved the overton window of what policy tools might be employed in future.
There is plenty of talk of winter restrictions if...if...if...all at the absolute discretion of the government. They have put us in a state whereby they are able, at a moment's notice and with minimal scrutiny, to swipe away our liberties again.
On those terms we now live in an illiberal state.
That, I hope, is what those people are protesting.
I would be very surprised if no one suggested mini lockdown or masks etc in winter from now on, even without Covid.
Boris tests negative for covid and is to hold a 5.00pm conference with JVT and Vallance
What about his isolation at Chequers? Or is he Zoom-ing in?
Twitter is about to go into meltdown if he appears in person.
Zoom from Chequers but I always find it funny when twitter go into meltdown
Talking of Twitter going into meltdown:
Hi, we have made the decision to operate under English guidance, with regards to social distancing on cross border services, to provide consistency to customers. Therefore, customers may be seated next to each other when travelling from 19 July onwards.
Poor LNER. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. Distancing has had a significant impact on capacity to the point where on some days there are no available seats for hours. Which prompts major customer issues. So they drop the distancing but retain the masks requirement. Which prompts major customer issues.
Instagram index - clubbing has made the index. Boris attempting to dodge isolation hasn't. Young people are much less bothered about this than the polls suggest. A friend of mine has recovered from it recently and she's getting a club night organised for next weekend when she said she'll "be fully up to speed by then". Loads of our juniors are out on Friday this week aiui and they're all in their interminable wait for a second dose judging by the #social-events slack channel.
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
I'm baffled - what lockdown are they protesting about today? Being politely asked to wear a mask in certain places? 'Cos surely that all that's left (or am I missing something?) It's almost like they just want to cause trouble...
The government, in introducing unprecedented restrictions on our freedoms, have moved the overton window of what policy tools might be employed in future.
There is plenty of talk of winter restrictions if...if...if...all at the absolute discretion of the government. They have put us in a state whereby they are able, at a moment's notice and with minimal scrutiny, to swipe away our liberties again.
On those terms we now live in an illiberal state.
That, I hope, is what those people are protesting.
Do you think they are though? 'Cos I kinda don't...
Taking of which, Sweden now seems to be the only EU member not having a 3rd wave, (cases staying at 200-250 a day)
Perhaps, that's just luck and it will start to rise next week, or maybe that's because lots of young people including under 18s had it asymptomatically in the earlier wayvs and therefor have a level of antibody/T Cell immunity, which in conjunction with the Vaccines in the Old and middle-aged.
Anybody else with 17 months hindsight wish we had taken the Swedish approach?
Given that they have had about 25 times as many excess deaths per head as Denmark, not really. And infinitely more than Norway, which had no excess deaths at all
Complacency, incompetence and sacrificing vulnerable members of society seem to be the hallmarks of the Swedish approach. See the hairraising inquiry last November into their care homes disaster.
(Not that we were any better on care homes, of course).
There is a wonderful modelling technique called linear regression.
You take a whole bunch of variables: mask mandates, population density, travel restrictions, proportion of intergenerational households, etc.
You then have numbers for - say - 40 countries for Covid.
Now, the datasets are *small* for Covid (there aren't that many countries), and there is a massive bit that is hard to measure, which is the level of seeding at the start of the pandmic.
Nevertheless, you then try and work out the equations that fit the data best, using different weightings for each variable, and equations of the equation y = ax + c.
Sweden, Denmark and Norway all have fairly similar demographics, and similar cities which (luckily) eschew really dense urban high-rise.
Anyway... the point is that in Sweden, the view is not that they've done remarkably well.
I must say, I'm rather confused by this post. As someone who has spent years using it, academically and professionally, I know that kinear regression can be a useful technique in some circumstances, and indeed I have used it myself in posts on this site. But it is one of the subjects that it is more dangerous to know a little about, than nothing at all, for a number of reasons:
- naively regressing a few variables on a few data points and thinking that this is the answer, without performing a large number of subsidiary checks (at least for heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation and multicollinearity) is much more likely to give spurious correlations than to show anything worthwhile. - any regression concerning Chinese flu is almost certain to suffer from omitted variables bias, because there are so many unquantifiable factors - much of the data from many countries is flawed or incomplete - there's no necessary reason to think the relationships are linear in any case. They might take some other functional form, in which case linear regression tells you nothing.
However, perhaps you have allowed for all these factors in whatever modelling you have done, in which case I'd like to see it.
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
I'm baffled - what lockdown are they protesting about today? Being politely asked to wear a mask in certain places? 'Cos surely that all that's left (or am I missing something?) It's almost like they just want to cause trouble...
The government, in introducing unprecedented restrictions on our freedoms, have moved the overton window of what policy tools might be employed in future.
There is plenty of talk of winter restrictions if...if...if...all at the absolute discretion of the government. They have put us in a state whereby they are able, at a moment's notice and with minimal scrutiny, to swipe away our liberties again.
On those terms we now live in an illiberal state.
That, I hope, is what those people are protesting.
Do you think they are though? 'Cos I kinda don't...
I fear that the scientists will try and force it on them by holding back booster shots for under 40s. I'm now resigned to rule by scientists for the next few years. It's going to take someone like Steve Baker to just complete fuck them all off for good and put them back in their box.
LNER are owned/run by UK govt. They report they reached agreement with Scottish govt to do this.
Cynically looks like SG now standing back to watch social media spin up a convenient nationalist grievance story of "English" disregard for Scotland, without clarifying position.
Taking of which, Sweden now seems to be the only EU member not having a 3rd wave, (cases staying at 200-250 a day)
Perhaps, that's just luck and it will start to rise next week, or maybe that's because lots of young people including under 18s had it asymptomatically in the earlier wayvs and therefor have a level of antibody/T Cell immunity, which in conjunction with the Vaccines in the Old and middle-aged.
Anybody else with 17 months hindsight wish we had taken the Swedish approach?
Given that they have had about 25 times as many excess deaths per head as Denmark, not really. And infinitely more than Norway, which had no excess deaths at all
Complacency, incompetence and sacrificing vulnerable members of society seem to be the hallmarks of the Swedish approach. See the hairraising inquiry last November into their care homes disaster.
(Not that we were any better on care homes, of course).
There is a wonderful modelling technique called linear regression.
You take a whole bunch of variables: mask mandates, population density, travel restrictions, proportion of intergenerational households, etc.
You then have numbers for - say - 40 countries for Covid.
Now, the datasets are *small* for Covid (there aren't that many countries), and there is a massive bit that is hard to measure, which is the level of seeding at the start of the pandmic.
Nevertheless, you then try and work out the equations that fit the data best, using different weightings for each variable, and equations of the equation y = ax + c.
Sweden, Denmark and Norway all have fairly similar demographics, and similar cities which (luckily) eschew really dense urban high-rise.
Anyway... the point is that in Sweden, the view is not that they've done remarkably well.
I must say, I'm rather confused by this post. As someone who has spent years using it, academically and professionally, I know that kinear regression can be a useful technique in some circumstances, and indeed I have used it myself in posts on this site. But it is one of the subjects that it is more dangerous to know a little about, than nothing at all, for a number of reasons:
- naively regressing a few variables on a few data points and thinking that this is the answer, without performing a large number of subsidiary checks (at least for heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation and multicollinearity) is much more likely to give spurious correlations than to show anything worthwhile. - any regression concerning Chinese flu is almost certain to suffer from omitted variables bias, because there are so many unquantifiable factors - much of the data from many countries is flawed or incomplete - there's no necessary reason to think the relationships are linear in any case. They might take some other functional form, in which case linear regression tells you nothing.
However, perhaps you have allowed for all these factors in whatever modelling you have done, in which case I'd like to see it.
You'd surely use a logistic regression based on our own data points and maybe those from the US which has a similarly advanced collection regime.
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).
Would be a start.
But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....
Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
Better you get out of the way and let the young energetic and potentially productive in our society get on with creating wealth.
Seriously. Want us to keep paying for your pensions, benefits and services? just let us get on with it?
Why is nobody in the tory party presenting the electorate with what the choice really is?Back to your lives or penury. That was always the choice
Get double jabbed and Covid vaccination passports not an issue for you and you can get back to your lives
Utter rubbish.
I am double jabbed. Domestic vaccination passports would still be a PITA.
My Conservative principles are about protecting liberty. Not providing a comfort blanket for the frit.
By contrast 55% of voters overall and 44% of Tory voters think lifting restrictions today was wrong, Covid passports for nightclubs would help ease their concerns, certainly until everyone has been offered a second jab https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lzpfmyen4d/TheTimes_FreedomDay_210716.pdf
So? It is fundamentally illiberal.
I couldn't care a hoot for polling. It is the wrong thing to do.
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
I'm baffled - what lockdown are they protesting about today? Being politely asked to wear a mask in certain places? 'Cos surely that all that's left (or am I missing something?) It's almost like they just want to cause trouble...
The government, in introducing unprecedented restrictions on our freedoms, have moved the overton window of what policy tools might be employed in future.
There is plenty of talk of winter restrictions if...if...if...all at the absolute discretion of the government. They have put us in a state whereby they are able, at a moment's notice and with minimal scrutiny, to swipe away our liberties again.
On those terms we now live in an illiberal state.
That, I hope, is what those people are protesting.
I would be very surprised if no one suggested mini lockdown or masks etc in winter from now on, even without Covid.
Amazing that it can even be discussed and yes I agree with you.
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
I think Labour just need to keep telling people they are stupid for believing Boris's lies and they are subhuman for voting Tory. That's how you win people back.
Kicking off - bottles being throw at the police anti lockdown protesters and police fighting back with some punches at parliament square, a good 2000 protesters here and a heavy police presence …. In this heat it’s going to be a long day of clashes
I'm baffled - what lockdown are they protesting about today? Being politely asked to wear a mask in certain places? 'Cos surely that all that's left (or am I missing something?) It's almost like they just want to cause trouble...
The government, in introducing unprecedented restrictions on our freedoms, have moved the overton window of what policy tools might be employed in future.
There is plenty of talk of winter restrictions if...if...if...all at the absolute discretion of the government. They have put us in a state whereby they are able, at a moment's notice and with minimal scrutiny, to swipe away our liberties again.
On those terms we now live in an illiberal state.
That, I hope, is what those people are protesting.
Do you think they are though? 'Cos I kinda don't...
Yes of course, there will be odds and sods turning up but the core I hope will be thus motivated.
Instagram index - clubbing has made the index. Boris attempting to dodge isolation hasn't. Young people are much less bothered about this than the polls suggest. A friend of mine has recovered from it recently and she's getting a club night organised for next weekend when she said she'll "be fully up to speed by then". Loads of our juniors are out on Friday this week aiui and they're all in their interminable wait for a second dose judging by the #social-events slack channel.
Doing an utter U-turn so quickly has certainly limited it's impact.
No 10 says govt has abandoned plans to reduce the sensitivity of the Covid tracing app. PM's spokesman says a third of people asked to isolate develop symptoms, adding: 'The app is doing what it it supposed to'
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
I think Labour just need to keep telling people they are stupid for believing Boris's lies and they are subhuman for voting Tory. That's how you win people back.
Well it fits the pattern of hatred for Tory scum, some of whom they need to vote for them at some point...
"I put my faith and trust in God and I said if I commit my actions to the Lord, my plans will be successful," the congresswoman told the crowd. "And now Shooters Grill has been open for eight years."
NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"
@Leon posting while pissed? To be serious, is there, or could there be, a mechanism within Vanilla to simply remove offending posts (including where they are quoted) rather than ban the poster?
He seemed particularly hyper today? It was like reading a play ‘Death of a Flint Knapper’. Freedom Day at last, straight up to the bar ordering shots. Ice Cold in Alex, not.
Seriously, if someone is in mind to revel in deaths due to natural disaster, with a cultural or racial slant to it, there has to be sanction or the whole site is in repute?
I was quite looking forward to taking in the bars of Hampstead with him tonight. Shame.
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Mask-watch: Local recreation centre: sign at the door requesting mask use. Neither staff nor customers appear to be bothering. Local butchers: staff and customers still masked.
I would have thought it would be the other way around.
Taxi passed outside the butchers - driver and passengers all unmasked, inasfar as one can tell from a glance all looking delighted with the situation.
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Good for you - it will take time to lose the mask mindset.
On my morning cycling exercise I saw plenty of people in fresh air walking along the street in masks.
NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"
@Leon posting while pissed? To be serious, is there, or could there be, a mechanism within Vanilla to simply remove offending posts (including where they are quoted) rather than ban the poster?
He seemed particularly hyper today? It was like reading a play ‘Death of a Flint Knapper’. Freedom Day at last, straight up to the bar ordering shots. Ice Cold in Alex, not.
Seriously, if someone is in mind to revel in deaths due to natural disaster, with a cultural or racial slant to it, there has to be sanction or the whole site is in repute?
I was quite looking forward to taking in the bars of Hampstead with him tonight. Shame.
Perhaps go instead to that lovely little out of the way place, never packed, with @kinabalu.
Speaking of where we are wrt the government and control, etc.
Who didn't get a frisson of concern upon hearing there will be a 5pm press conference today with Boris and the boffins?
Can he really U-turn on anything at this stage?
I wouldn't have thought so. But it is indicative of the state they have brought us to that just a 5pm presser is caution-inducing. Anxiety in many, I have no doubt.
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Good for you - it will take time to lose the mask mindset.
On my morning cycling exercise I saw plenty of people in fresh air walking along the street in masks.
The telegraph reports that hospitality spending is still 30% below pre 2019 levels. 30% FFS.
With furlough ending, this is a nightmare for the government, isn't it? Tom Newton Dunn tweeting a picture of an empty restaurant in central London.
With furlough ending, the chance of bankruptcies and redundancies are surely on the horizon.
How did you do that? Is there a trick that can be done?
Subscribers can share a certain number of articles per month from the share button in the app or on the website and it allows non-subscribers to read that specific article.
Was going to hospital today for routine tests. Just had a call. My consultant - double jabbed - has just been pinged. So he is now isolating and his entire list thrown into chaos. Bring forward the Aug isolation rules. It's madness
I spoke to a friend at the weekend who works in the NHS – her trust has told all employees delete the app as otherwise they won't be able to run services.
I wonder if the deep irony of the NHS telling NHS staff to delete the NHS app will be lost on Bozza?
When we needed it we didn't have it. Now we don't need it it's all over us like a cheap rash. Such is the tale of the TAT app. But the same goes for much in life, come to think about it.
I do not understand why folk are irritated by other people wearing masks?
For me it’s a head/heart thing. Logically it is more than fine - doesn’t effect me (in fact makes me safer) and it makes the wearer more comfortable. However when you can’t see someone’s facial expressions it is, even now, instinctively off putting and upsetting in a decidedly illogical way.
I do not understand why folk are irritated by other people wearing masks?
I couldn't care less if other people continue to wear masks, so long as they don't expect me to do the same.
Absolutely - strange sites of our time: people on bikes wearing masks, people in cars (obviously not taxi drivers) on their own wearing masks, people walking on the street/in parks wearing masks. Seen it all these past few days and months.
But go for it. If it works for them then all well and good.
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Good for you - it will take time to lose the mask mindset.
On my morning cycling exercise I saw plenty of people in fresh air walking along the street in masks.
Really? Number of people who wear masks on the streets round here is about 1 in 50 - higher around shops where people simply don't bother to take them off between one shop and another, but still less than one in ten.
I have been highly irritated by masks for over a year. Now it's no longer compulsory, I find I don't mind that much at all if businesses are still requesting that I use them.
No 10 says govt has abandoned plans to reduce the sensitivity of the Covid tracing app. PM's spokesman says a third of people asked to isolate develop symptoms, adding: 'The app is doing what it it supposed to'
Good Guardian story where despite the 5 million + successful EU settlement applications they have found one where the Home Office never answers the phone, their employer acts illegally, a specialist charity can't sort it and everyone has been an idiot.
Some cases make you wonder what MPs are for. It's one where a sensible one could sort it swiftly.
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Good for you - it will take time to lose the mask mindset.
On my morning cycling exercise I saw plenty of people in fresh air walking along the street in masks.
The telegraph reports that hospitality spending is still 30% below pre 2019 levels. 30% FFS.
With furlough ending, this is a nightmare for the government, isn't it? Tom Newton Dunn tweeting a picture of an empty restaurant in central London.
With furlough ending, the chance of bankruptcies and redundancies are surely on the horizon.
I think so. It was always the case that many on furlough were actually unemployed but didn't realise it. We shall see as furlough tapers down the reality. And I tend to agree with you that it will get quite bloody.
Speaking of where we are wrt the government and control, etc.
Who didn't get a frisson of concern upon hearing there will be a 5pm press conference today with Boris and the boffins?
Nah - this will be the pep talk - its all up to you now folks, but British pluck and we'll get through. Keep wearing the mask even though the law has changed. Be careful, but please go out and spend lots of money...
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
Five consecutive HoC votes (on whatever) where Lab votes against the govt and has some degree of popular approval for so doing and where it might be close (suggesting a lockdown-related topic).
Would be a start.
But then again as SKS has said he would make masks mandatory - until when? - I can't see the lockdown-related vote happening.
SKS again has been banging on about Boris being reckless, huge gamble, disaster, etc etc etc...then asked what he would do different...its radio silence....followed by masks, masks on trains...open some windows...but other than that...errhhh....Boris is a racist....
Perhaps vaccinating children? But then again its tricky, because the JCVI are independent of government and like the 12 week stuff, the public trust "the experts".
Does Starmer want compulsory masks in the nightclubs labour voters are now thronging to?
Better would be Covid vaccination passports for nightclubs until most 18 to 30 year olds have been offered a second jab
Surely that would prevent many young guns from going clubbing?
Maybe but would also cut the rise in cases
A representative from the nightclub industry said on talkradio today that, even with current rules, it will take this sector five years to repair its finances. Five years. Many operators have taken out loans or remortgaged houses to get them past this.
So your proposals would destroy a whole industry for good. In case you were wondering.
All to stop a few oldies from sh8tting themselves a bit less, whilst still demanding the services and benefits the nightclub industry helps to fund.
No it wouldn't. Austria has done it successfully as has France, as have a number of clubs in NYC and LA.
If anything mandatory Covid vaccination passports could encourage customers to nightclubs as they would know their fellow dancers had all been vaccinated.
Very unconservative, there, HYUFD, for our resident let me tell you who is or isn't a Conservative poster.
Maybe not libertarian no but I am a conservative, I have never been a libertarian
Yes I'd say you justify the noun. You are a total and utter conservative.
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Good for you - it will take time to lose the mask mindset.
On my morning cycling exercise I saw plenty of people in fresh air walking along the street in masks.
Really? Number of people who wear masks on the streets round here is about 1 in 50 - higher around shops where people simply don't bother to take them off between one shop and another, but still less than one in ten.
I have been highly irritated by masks for over a year. Now it's no longer compulsory, I find I don't mind that much at all if businesses are still requesting that I use them.
The wonders of personal responsibility and letting people and businesses decide for themselves.
Speaking of where we are wrt the government and control, etc.
Who didn't get a frisson of concern upon hearing there will be a 5pm press conference today with Boris and the boffins?
Nah - this will be the pep talk - its all up to you now folks, but British pluck and we'll get through. Keep wearing the mask even though the law has changed. Be careful, but please go out and spend lots of money...
Of course, on a moment's reflection that would be exactly what it will be.
My point is in the nation's subconscious a "5pm press conference" is a source of concern.
I do not understand why folk are irritated by other people wearing masks?
I can understand it, though I try not to feel it myself. You can read too much into a gesture like wearing a mask where it is not required to do so. You can read "I want mask mandates to stay forever". Or "I think you have too much freedom and I disapprove." I would be irritated if someone were trying to convey that message. Wearing masks is also mildly inimical to the smooth operation of normal human relations. Simply putting a barrier between your face and the outside world makes the normal process of interaction more difficult (like wearing a motorcycle helmet). It doesn't engender trust or good humour. But I'm sure this isn't most mask-wearers' intentions.
So I try to assume people are saying "I'm not sure whether I should be doing this or not and I'm trying not to annoy anyone"; or "I have forgotten to remove my mask."
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Good for you - it will take time to lose the mask mindset.
On my morning cycling exercise I saw plenty of people in fresh air walking along the street in masks.
Really? Number of people who wear masks on the streets round here is about 1 in 50 - higher around shops where people simply don't bother to take them off between one shop and another, but still less than one in ten.
I have been highly irritated by masks for over a year. Now it's no longer compulsory, I find I don't mind that much at all if businesses are still requesting that I use them.
Weirdly I am now less bothered about wearing a mask in shops than when it was a legal requirement (i.e. yesterday). What does grind my gears in the Uni keeping the stupid one way routes in buildings (essentially low occupancy as no undergrads around, just some staff and the PhD/post doctoral researchers. And masks in same buildings. Shops I am happy to go along with to help others feel safer. On campus, I'm fed up.
And yet any time the politicians decide that something else trumps the science they go and mouth off to their nearest media outlet. You all want to have your cake and eat it, on the one hand you say it's politicians that have to make the decisions and they are free to make decisions that you don't agree with but then at the same time you say it's unfair that SAGE members aren't bound by the same rules as the civil service on speaking to media directly (don't fucking do it).
So ultimately we have a tyranny of scientists who think they know what's best for us because the government knows the media will go mental every time one of you lot go rogue and decide that actually, you know what's better for the country than the people who have been elected.
It's a remarkably odd definition of "tyranny" to say that people having free speech constitutes tyranny! You think there's less tyranny if I'm not allowed to say anything?
SAGE participants are not civil servants. SAGE participation is part-time. Very, very part-time now for the sub-committees. We're not paid by Government. We have no employment contract with Govt. Science, like many things, is better done in the open, with transparency. That's why all SAGE minutes are published fairly promptly.
Government was very concerned about academic freedom recently. Are we only free to speak when we say things the government likes?
I do not understand why folk are irritated by other people wearing masks?
I couldn't care less if other people continue to wear masks, so long as they don't expect me to do the same.
I must be an outlier. Wearing a mask has never bothered me. Neither has other people wearing or not wearing them. Rather like hats. It is frankly none of my business. Never was, and still isn't.
I do not understand why folk are irritated by other people wearing masks?
For me it’s a head/heart thing. Logically it is more than fine - doesn’t effect me (in fact makes me safer) and it makes the wearer more comfortable. However when you can’t see someone’s facial expressions it is, even now, instinctively off putting and upsetting in a decidedly illogical way.
That's not illogical at all – facial expressions are a key element of human communication.
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Ok! Hats off for mask off. It's the right call.
But I've disappointed myself by still wearing mine. Can't quite seem to break free. Not quite ready.
People can call me an institutionalised pussy whipped libtard cuck and I'd have no real defence.
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
I think Labour just need to keep telling people they are stupid for believing Boris's lies and they are subhuman for voting Tory. That's how you win people back.
I've just been talking to someone in another place who *still* seems to think that opposition parties can ignore the people who are not voting for them already, and that somehow instructing existing voters to place their cross next to the party best placed to evict the Tory will usher in a Progressive Alliance (always capitals) who introduce PR which will, de jure, consign Conservatism to the wastebin of history.
For those of us who want to see the back of the current incarnation of the UK gov, it is dispiriting.
I do not understand why folk are irritated by other people wearing masks?
I find it very difficult to work out what people are saying if their mouth us covered.
I also find it more difficult to read people's expressions. Such a lot of communication is done through facial expressions - particularly the base animal communications like expressing friendly and non-threatening intent. This is more difficult with a mask. You have to assume it. It's almost always the case of course that people are friendly and non-threatening, but it is more difficult to be put at ease by a mask-wearer.
NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"
@Leon posting while pissed? To be serious, is there, or could there be, a mechanism within Vanilla to simply remove offending posts (including where they are quoted) rather than ban the poster?
He seemed particularly hyper today? It was like reading a play ‘Death of a Flint Knapper’. Freedom Day at last, straight up to the bar ordering shots. Ice Cold in Alex, not.
Seriously, if someone is in mind to revel in deaths due to natural disaster, with a cultural or racial slant to it, there has to be sanction or the whole site is in repute?
I was quite looking forward to taking in the bars of Hampstead with him tonight. Shame.
Perhaps go instead to that lovely little out of the way place, never packed, with @kinabalu.
I do not understand why folk are irritated by other people wearing masks?
I couldn't care less if other people continue to wear masks, so long as they don't expect me to do the same.
I must be an outlier. Wearing a mask has never bothered me. Neither has other people wearing or not wearing them. Rather like hats. It is frankly none of my business. Never was, and still isn't.
I was working in my chemical lab with a mask on and safety glasses. Horrendous. Happily for me I only needed an hour spread over three, but I gave my student permission not to carry on if it got too hot. Its bonkers as there are no ventilation issues (10 huge fume hoods extracting the air continuously) but the Uni insists we were masks.
Scotland's Constitution Secretary says "rules", but it's guidance.
If Scot Gov want to make LNER follow its 1m social distancing rule, they could put it into law. Current 1m legal regs only apply to business "premises"
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Good for you - it will take time to lose the mask mindset.
On my morning cycling exercise I saw plenty of people in fresh air walking along the street in masks.
The telegraph reports that hospitality spending is still 30% below pre 2019 levels. 30% FFS.
With furlough ending, this is a nightmare for the government, isn't it? Tom Newton Dunn tweeting a picture of an empty restaurant in central London.
With furlough ending, the chance of bankruptcies and redundancies are surely on the horizon.
Maybe there were just too many of these places? Folk have discovered just how much cash they save from eating and drinking at home more often? My barber friend reports dismal trade. Many of his regulars used to be weekly. Now they have twigged they don't need to spend a tenner a week getting 2 mm of growth taken off.
I do not understand why folk are irritated by other people wearing masks?
For me it’s a head/heart thing. Logically it is more than fine - doesn’t effect me (in fact makes me safer) and it makes the wearer more comfortable. However when you can’t see someone’s facial expressions it is, even now, instinctively off putting and upsetting in a decidedly illogical way.
That's not illogical at all – facial expressions are a key element of human communication.
Well this discussion has surely caused eyebrows to raise, chins to thrust forward, noses to turn up, teeth to grind and lips to purse.
Taking of which, Sweden now seems to be the only EU member not having a 3rd wave, (cases staying at 200-250 a day)
Perhaps, that's just luck and it will start to rise next week, or maybe that's because lots of young people including under 18s had it asymptomatically in the earlier wayvs and therefor have a level of antibody/T Cell immunity, which in conjunction with the Vaccines in the Old and middle-aged.
Anybody else with 17 months hindsight wish we had taken the Swedish approach?
Given that they have had about 25 times as many excess deaths per head as Denmark, not really. And infinitely more than Norway, which had no excess deaths at all
Complacency, incompetence and sacrificing vulnerable members of society seem to be the hallmarks of the Swedish approach. See the hairraising inquiry last November into their care homes disaster.
(Not that we were any better on care homes, of course).
There is a wonderful modelling technique called linear regression.
You take a whole bunch of variables: mask mandates, population density, travel restrictions, proportion of intergenerational households, etc.
You then have numbers for - say - 40 countries for Covid.
Now, the datasets are *small* for Covid (there aren't that many countries), and there is a massive bit that is hard to measure, which is the level of seeding at the start of the pandmic.
Nevertheless, you then try and work out the equations that fit the data best, using different weightings for each variable, and equations of the equation y = ax + c.
Sweden, Denmark and Norway all have fairly similar demographics, and similar cities which (luckily) eschew really dense urban high-rise.
Anyway... the point is that in Sweden, the view is not that they've done remarkably well.
I must say, I'm rather confused by this post. As someone who has spent years using it, academically and professionally, I know that kinear regression can be a useful technique in some circumstances, and indeed I have used it myself in posts on this site. But it is one of the subjects that it is more dangerous to know a little about, than nothing at all, for a number of reasons:
- naively regressing a few variables on a few data points and thinking that this is the answer, without performing a large number of subsidiary checks (at least for heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation and multicollinearity) is much more likely to give spurious correlations than to show anything worthwhile. - any regression concerning Chinese flu is almost certain to suffer from omitted variables bias, because there are so many unquantifiable factors - much of the data from many countries is flawed or incomplete - there's no necessary reason to think the relationships are linear in any case. They might take some other functional form, in which case linear regression tells you nothing.
However, perhaps you have allowed for all these factors in whatever modelling you have done, in which case I'd like to see it.
You'd surely use a logistic regression based on our own data points and maybe those from the US which has a similarly advanced collection regime.
As good a starting point as any I suppose. But I've often thought that the post-regression checks that are just as important.
And yet any time the politicians decide that something else trumps the science they go and mouth off to their nearest media outlet. You all want to have your cake and eat it, on the one hand you say it's politicians that have to make the decisions and they are free to make decisions that you don't agree with but then at the same time you say it's unfair that SAGE members aren't bound by the same rules as the civil service on speaking to media directly (don't fucking do it).
So ultimately we have a tyranny of scientists who think they know what's best for us because the government knows the media will go mental every time one of you lot go rogue and decide that actually, you know what's better for the country than the people who have been elected.
It's a remarkably odd definition of "tyranny" to say that people having free speech constitutes tyranny! You think there's less tyranny if I'm not allowed to say anything?
SAGE participants are not civil servants. SAGE participation is part-time. Very, very part-time now for the sub-committees. We're not paid by Government. We have no employment contract with Govt. Science, like many things, is better done in the open, with transparency. That's why all SAGE minutes are published fairly promptly.
Government was very concerned about academic freedom recently. Are we only free to speak when we say things the government likes?
But that's the point, you're on the one hand saying your advice to the government is just advice but on the other hand telling us that you should be free to bitch to the media when the government decides that your advice is just advisory.
Simply, you want to pretend that you aren't trying to influence policy decisions outside of your remit by maintaining a pretence that the government is free to ignore your advice but then the first moment this happens you'll bitch to the media that the government is "ignoring the science" or whatever else. It's only been happening for a year.
The sooner your reign of freedom hating, mask wearing, no one can ever die again bullshit is over the better off we'll be.
Hopefully Steve Baker wins the leadership and gets rid of all of you in one swoop and you can go back to leading your grey lives churning out papers that no one will ever read and we can go back to not caring about what you do again.
Genuinely what do you think will change the current situation?
The Tories has messed up on Delta variant, had the Hancock scandal, Cummings saying Boris isn't fit to be PM and bodies piled high (etc), ongoing sleaze, Patel / Boris been accused as racist enablers....and yet Labour are further behind than before.
I keep thinking this is the one that will do it, but it doesn't seem to.
I think Labour just need to keep telling people they are stupid for believing Boris's lies and they are subhuman for voting Tory. That's how you win people back.
I've just been talking to someone in another place who *still* seems to think that opposition parties can ignore the people who are not voting for them already, and that somehow instructing existing voters to place their cross next to the party best placed to evict the Tory will usher in a Progressive Alliance (always capitals) who introduce PR which will, de jure, consign Conservatism to the wastebin of history.
For those of us who want to see the back of the current incarnation of the UK gov, it is dispiriting.
Except it wouldn't, as we saw the LDs even were in government with the Conservatives from 2010 to 2015.
PR would likely see something similar with the LDs kingmakers, UKIP back up to 10 to 15% of the vote, the Conservatives more Cameroon to be able to deal with the LDs and the Corbynite left splitting from Starmer Labour to form their own hard left party
NOTE a poster here has jusst been banned for stating in comment "the Germans are drowning (always a nice distraction)"
@Leon posting while pissed? To be serious, is there, or could there be, a mechanism within Vanilla to simply remove offending posts (including where they are quoted) rather than ban the poster?
He seemed particularly hyper today? It was like reading a play ‘Death of a Flint Knapper’. Freedom Day at last, straight up to the bar ordering shots. Ice Cold in Alex, not.
Seriously, if someone is in mind to revel in deaths due to natural disaster, with a cultural or racial slant to it, there has to be sanction or the whole site is in repute?
I was quite looking forward to taking in the bars of Hampstead with him tonight. Shame.
Perhaps go instead to that lovely little out of the way place, never packed, with @kinabalu.
Let us know how you get on.
It won't stay quiet for long at this rate.
I'm tempted to rock up there just to play spot the PBer.
Well up to a point. When you have members of SAGE who are members of a political party whose avowed intent is to bring down capitalism and replace it with something else, you do wonder about the objectivity of the advice received.
It's up to the Government whether Susan Michie is on SAGE or its sub-committees, or not. If you are concerned about the decision, address your concerns to the Prime Minister.
Not really. Imagine the flapping noise if the Govt made a decision to exclude Michie.
SAGE was reported in July 2020 to consist of around 20 participants at any one given time.[13] Participants are drawn from both academia and practice, and the participants of a particular meeting are decided upon by the British Government Chief Scientific Adviser and the Chief Medical Officer for England, depending on the expertise required. They are not generally employed by government. They do not operate under government instruction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_Advisory_Group_for_Emergencies
Participant numbers went way up over 2020. SPI-B was always well above 20. I understand SAGE is the same.
The phrase, "They do not operate under government instruction." could be worded better.
I do not understand why folk are irritated by other people wearing masks?
I can understand it, though I try not to feel it myself. You can read too much into a gesture like wearing a mask where it is not required to do so. You can read "I want mask mandates to stay forever". Or "I think you have too much freedom and I disapprove." I would be irritated if someone were trying to convey that message. Wearing masks is also mildly inimical to the smooth operation of normal human relations. Simply putting a barrier between your face and the outside world makes the normal process of interaction more difficult (like wearing a motorcycle helmet). It doesn't engender trust or good humour. But I'm sure this isn't most mask-wearers' intentions.
So I try to assume people are saying "I'm not sure whether I should be doing this or not and I'm trying not to annoy anyone"; or "I have forgotten to remove my mask."
You can get clear/have a see through section so ones that can show your mouth. I know our Trust have a supply of them after some complaints from the deaf community.
Communication at work has been a problem with masks but not come across any really difficult situations from it, there is an understanding of why we wear them in the setting we do. We just get around it and make it work.
Off work today, but back in tomorrow and I will be interested to see how my journey to work goes with the changes. I will be masked up, trying to keep my distance best I can listening to music. If it's busy and someone wants to sit next to me they can have both seats and I will stand.
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Ok! Hats off for mask off. It's the right call.
But I've disappointed myself by still wearing mine. Can't quite seem to break free. Not quite ready.
People can call me an institutionalised pussy whipped libtard cuck and I'd have no real defence.
I see in Leon's unfortunate absence you are having to abuse yourself.
I was thinking about this today. I place myself at about the 25% level. There are some people so rebellious/heroic/selfish that they will demask straight away, but most of us need some sort of peer-confirmation to do it. I reckon where rules are blurred I demask once about 25% of people are demasked.
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Good for you - it will take time to lose the mask mindset.
On my morning cycling exercise I saw plenty of people in fresh air walking along the street in masks.
The telegraph reports that hospitality spending is still 30% below pre 2019 levels. 30% FFS.
With furlough ending, this is a nightmare for the government, isn't it? Tom Newton Dunn tweeting a picture of an empty restaurant in central London.
With furlough ending, the chance of bankruptcies and redundancies are surely on the horizon.
Indeed, no good reopening fully without requiring masks or social distancing if people still do not feel confident enough to eat in a restaurant indoors or go to a bar or pub or club.
Covid vaccination passports being required in indoor hospitality venues would provide that confidence
FWIW I was in a supermarket at lunch time, then took a short cut through a bus station. I'd say 75-80%, of all ages, were masked indoors. I didn't wear one and felt quite naughty until I saw other folk not wearing them.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Ok! Hats off for mask off. It's the right call.
But I've disappointed myself by still wearing mine. Can't quite seem to break free. Not quite ready.
People can call me an institutionalised pussy whipped libtard cuck and I'd have no real defence.
I see in Leon's unfortunate absence you are having to abuse yourself.
I was thinking about this today. I place myself at about the 25% level. There are some people so rebellious/heroic/selfish that they will demask straight away, but most of us need some sort of peer-confirmation to do it. I reckon where rules are blurred I demask once about 25% of people are demasked.
I read the room. Went to the garage today to be given a £4200 quote for a new gearbox, no masks, which was good as I needed all the oxygen I could get at that point. Co-Op was mask central so kept one on.
I wonder what its like when SeanT gets banned and has to regenerate.
Is it like Doctor Who - a burst of energy then a new face/username? Is it like Captain Jack when he actually lies there unbreathing for a few minutes until coming back with a big gasp? Is it like one of the Cylons where they awake on the resurrection ship?
Comments
SAGE was reported in July 2020 to consist of around 20 participants at any one given time.[13] Participants are drawn from both academia and practice, and the participants of a particular meeting are decided upon by the British Government Chief Scientific Adviser and the Chief Medical Officer for England, depending on the expertise required. They are not generally employed by government. They do not operate under government instruction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_Advisory_Group_for_Emergencies
Freedom Day at last, straight up to the bar ordering shots. Ice Cold in Alex, not.
Seriously, if someone is in mind to revel in deaths due to natural disaster, with a cultural or racial slant to it, there has to be sanction or the whole site is in repute?
But, unlike many people here, I don't think Labour can sit back and assume the support as The Other Lot. Unless they can demonstrate a realistic competence to do better, wiser, more farsighted they may gain little from it.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2021/03/05/britons-support-covid-19-vaccine-passport-system
By contrast 55% of voters overall and 44% of Tory voters think lifting restrictions today was wrong, Covid passports for nightclubs would help ease their concerns, certainly until everyone has been offered a second jab
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lzpfmyen4d/TheTimes_FreedomDay_210716.pdf
Vaccination first dose
Vaccination second dose
FFP3 mask
Ventilation
Distancing
(With outdoors ventilation being ahead of the FFP3 mask)
Not appearing in top 5:
Wearing a [cloth] mask
Washing hands
Cleaning surfaces
They are not being told the full truth and you know it.
Ask them if they are prepared to take freezes in benefits and pension payments, lower public sector salaries and fewer services as a corollary of continued restrictions and let's see the result then.
Because that is the corollary. And you as a conservative should surely grasp that.
I cannot see anything but choppy economic waters between now and GE 2024. And when I say choppy I mean some enormous white horses riding the waves
If that doesn't change the dynamic Johnson can just get on with settling into Chequers and enjoying his wallpaper at No 10.
[ETA: Unless you mean "self-protection" in which case yes, distancing is better than a cloth mask; if you mean "community protection" then cloth masks would be more efficacious than distancing, I think]
There is plenty of talk of winter restrictions if...if...if...all at the absolute discretion of the government. They have put us in a state whereby they are able, at a moment's notice and with minimal scrutiny, to swipe away our liberties again.
On those terms we now live in an illiberal state.
That, I hope, is what those people are protesting.
Freedom Day.
Bristol Airport (on the way to Belfast). 90% maskage, tumbleweed blowing through the departure lounge. About 5% of (my) expected footfall.
On the other hand M5 heading South West, absolutely rammed. M4 heading towards West Wales also very, very busy.
I thought there was a labour shortage?
- naively regressing a few variables on a few data points and thinking that this is the answer, without performing a large number of subsidiary checks (at least for heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation and multicollinearity) is much more likely to give spurious correlations than to show anything worthwhile.
- any regression concerning Chinese flu is almost certain to suffer from omitted variables bias, because there are so many unquantifiable factors
- much of the data from many countries is flawed or incomplete
- there's no necessary reason to think the relationships are linear in any case. They might take some other functional form, in which case linear regression tells you nothing.
However, perhaps you have allowed for all these factors in whatever modelling you have done, in which case I'd like to see it.
I couldn't care a hoot for polling. It is the wrong thing to do.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prosecco-exports-britain-fall-brexit-weddings-xlnpdglt6
Rep. Lauren Boebert.
Try this link.
Went in a local boozer on Friday night about half 10 and everyone was maskless and ordering drinks at the bar. So I did the same. Felt good to stand at a bar and order a beer.
Who didn't get a frisson of concern upon hearing there will be a 5pm press conference today with Boris and the boffins?
Local recreation centre: sign at the door requesting mask use. Neither staff nor customers appear to be bothering.
Local butchers: staff and customers still masked.
I would have thought it would be the other way around.
Taxi passed outside the butchers - driver and passengers all unmasked, inasfar as one can tell from a glance all looking delighted with the situation.
On my morning cycling exercise I saw plenty of people in fresh air walking along the street in masks.
Let us know how you get on.
With furlough ending, this is a nightmare for the government, isn't it? Tom Newton Dunn tweeting a picture of an empty restaurant in central London.
With furlough ending, the chance of bankruptcies and redundancies are surely on the horizon.
But go for it. If it works for them then all well and good.
Not for me, though.
I have been highly irritated by masks for over a year. Now it's no longer compulsory, I find I don't mind that much at all if businesses are still requesting that I use them.
Some cases make you wonder what MPs are for. It's one where a sensible one could sort it swiftly.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/19/spanish-woman-in-uk-for-44-years-sacked-over-post-brexit-rules
My point is in the nation's subconscious a "5pm press conference" is a source of concern.
You can read too much into a gesture like wearing a mask where it is not required to do so. You can read "I want mask mandates to stay forever". Or "I think you have too much freedom and I disapprove." I would be irritated if someone were trying to convey that message.
Wearing masks is also mildly inimical to the smooth operation of normal human relations. Simply putting a barrier between your face and the outside world makes the normal process of interaction more difficult (like wearing a motorcycle helmet). It doesn't engender trust or good humour. But I'm sure this isn't most mask-wearers' intentions.
So I try to assume people are saying "I'm not sure whether I should be doing this or not and I'm trying not to annoy anyone"; or "I have forgotten to remove my mask."
Shops I am happy to go along with to help others feel safer. On campus, I'm fed up.
SAGE participants are not civil servants. SAGE participation is part-time. Very, very part-time now for the sub-committees. We're not paid by Government. We have no employment contract with Govt. Science, like many things, is better done in the open, with transparency. That's why all SAGE minutes are published fairly promptly.
Government was very concerned about academic freedom recently. Are we only free to speak when we say things the government likes?
But I've disappointed myself by still wearing mine. Can't quite seem to break free. Not quite ready.
People can call me an institutionalised pussy whipped libtard cuck and I'd have no real defence.
For those of us who want to see the back of the current incarnation of the UK gov, it is dispiriting.
Its bonkers as there are no ventilation issues (10 huge fume hoods extracting the air continuously) but the Uni insists we were masks.
If Scot Gov want to make LNER follow its 1m social distancing rule, they could put it into law. Current 1m legal regs only apply to business "premises"
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1417128202875641858?s=20
My barber friend reports dismal trade. Many of his regulars used to be weekly. Now they have twigged they don't need to spend a tenner a week getting 2 mm of growth taken off.
Simply, you want to pretend that you aren't trying to influence policy decisions outside of your remit by maintaining a pretence that the government is free to ignore your advice but then the first moment this happens you'll bitch to the media that the government is "ignoring the science" or whatever else. It's only been happening for a year.
The sooner your reign of freedom hating, mask wearing, no one can ever die again bullshit is over the better off we'll be.
Hopefully Steve Baker wins the leadership and gets rid of all of you in one swoop and you can go back to leading your grey lives churning out papers that no one will ever read and we can go back to not caring about what you do again.
PR would likely see something similar with the LDs kingmakers, UKIP back up to 10 to 15% of the vote, the Conservatives more Cameroon to be able to deal with the LDs and the Corbynite left splitting from Starmer Labour to form their own hard left party
The phrase, "They do not operate under government instruction." could be worded better.
Communication at work has been a problem with masks but not come across any really difficult situations from it, there is an understanding of why we wear them in the setting we do. We just get around it and make it work.
Off work today, but back in tomorrow and I will be interested to see how my journey to work goes with the changes. I will be masked up, trying to keep my distance best I can listening to music. If it's busy and someone wants to sit next to me they can have both seats and I will stand.
I was thinking about this today. I place myself at about the 25% level. There are some people so rebellious/heroic/selfish that they will demask straight away, but most of us need some sort of peer-confirmation to do it. I reckon where rules are blurred I demask once about 25% of people are demasked.
Covid vaccination passports being required in indoor hospitality venues would provide that confidence
https://twitter.com/DocMunkeychops/status/1417118487114289156?s=20
Is it like Doctor Who - a burst of energy then a new face/username?
Is it like Captain Jack when he actually lies there unbreathing for a few minutes until coming back with a big gasp?
Is it like one of the Cylons where they awake on the resurrection ship?
Perhaps @insertnewusername will be able to tell us when he shows up