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So another by-election betting market where punters grossly over-stated Tory chances – politicalbett

SystemSystem Posts: 11,687
edited July 2021 in General
imageSo another by-election betting market where punters grossly over-stated Tory chances – politicalbetting.com

Throughout this whole campaign the narrative was that LAB was going to get beaten and the story we would be cvoering this morning was whether Starmer would survive as LAB leader.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,287
    MikeSmithson said:

    Test

    And Trace.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Well done all winners, big slice of humble pie for me - looks to me by eye like Kim picked up the Clackheaton Lib Dems from the local election and the Tories didn't net anything.
    Kim Leadbeater clearly the best candidate for parliament of the lot.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,678
    Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,122
    Great result for Labour, to have won even with Galloway coming a fairly close third. I felt in my gut that Hartlepool was peak Johnson. Good to see that confirmed. Well done to the Labour activists.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Test

    And Trace.
    Who's Trace? One of the girls counting?
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Whilst I pay homage to your political punting Mike - you really are on a roll with hot tips , I think it is unfair to call Galloway an election flop. For an indie he has done well here and in the past as won as an indie- no mean feat.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,128
    I regret to report that Mystic Bastani has been at it again.

    https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1410835150204723200?s=21

    https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1410836710070657024?s=21
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Andy_JS said:

    Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.

    I’m thinking the appointment of Sajid Javid didn’t quite create the same positive buzz in Muslim communities as George Galloway did.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    As an aside, I was watching Youtube yesterday in the early evening and got an advert from the Labour candidate.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,685
    Good tip Mike. I lated the Tories for £20 at about 1.2, tempted to cash out but let it ride.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,981
    Andy_JS said:

    Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.

    Tory chair Amanda Milling tells @KayBurley that Matt Hancock came up on doorsteps in Batley and Spen
    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1410843186692513793

    Unlike the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson, who spent the campaign hiding... https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410843529568456706
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,287
    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Test

    And Trace.
    Who's Trace? One of the girls counting?
    That was an epic fail on two counts. Autocorrect changed ‘trice’ to ‘trace’ and then I came second anyway so what was an attempted awesome pun on ‘test and trace’ and ‘third’ ended up being more inept than a Tory by-election campaign.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,287
    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.

    Tory chair Amanda Milling tells @KayBurley that Matt Hancock came up on doorsteps in Batley and Spen
    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1410843186692513793
    *Raises eyebrows*

    Unfortunate way of putting it...
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Wise after the event bigging myself up but Labour @7 was a foolishly long price.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,770
    Thanks to all who tipped another good winner, and indeed those who gave their reasons for thinking the contrary, it is the balance that allows readers of this site a clear advantage in our political betting.

    Off topic, I see the government are briefing that freedom day, i.e. the end of all legal restrictions, is on track to go ahead, but will see some ongoing legal restrictions as extra precautions!

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    A much more significant result than the numbers. It raises the confidence levels of the opposition (Labour in particular) and following the last by-election a few weeks ago it raises questions about Johnson.

    For instance is he the Messiah or just a disgusting amoral lying freeloader with no judgement?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,981
    Excl: Johnson orders Javid to press ahead with “huge” NHS reorganisation despite new health secretary’s plea for a delay because plans are incomplete and will become too controversial

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9ef13606-dab6-11eb-b92f-5fe539a30c29?shareToken=e93050d0b14eb8b872e5cb1a0c334fa9
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,409
    Betfair does not seem in any great hurry to settle the market.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

    The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,128
    George kicking the Trumpian arse out of it. Local landscaping companies should be on alert.

    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1410845047734558723?s=21

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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,409
    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.

    Tory chair Amanda Milling tells @KayBurley that Matt Hancock came up on doorsteps in Batley and Spen
    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1410843186692513793

    Unlike the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson, who spent the campaign hiding... https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410843529568456706
    Perhaps some obliging journalist might investigate precisely what did constitute the Tories' campaign.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

    So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,250
    Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    A very nice winner on overall result and Conservative vote share.

    And nice to be proved right that the Heavy Wollens were not going to vote Conservative.

    And its lol bizarre that some PBers are trying to claim this as a huge victory for Labour and defeat for Boris.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,770
    MarqueeMark said:

    The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

    The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.

    I think you may be severely overestimating his potential replacements!
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    edited July 2021
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Betfair does not seem in any great hurry to settle the market.

    Ladbrokes have paid my galloway over 10% winnings.

    Wonder which seat gallloway will stand at the next election? Has to be one with a big muslim population - somewhere in Brum? he likes to mover around!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.

    Governments don't win by-elections.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,320
    Well done, Mike.

    Your modest acknowledment of your achievement is noted with thanks.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The biggest shame today is that someone as ghastly as Galloway can win as many as 8k votes.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    edited July 2021
    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Test

    And Trace.
    Who's Trace? One of the girls counting?
    That was an epic fail on two counts. Autocorrect changed ‘trice’ to ‘trace’ and then I came second anyway so what was an attempted awesome pun on ‘test and trace’ and ‘third’ ended up being more inept than a Tory by-election campaign.
    As GG would admit; you can't win 'em all! Your puns do lighten the mood.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,128
    Glad that Kim Leadbeater won but this made me laugh.

    https://twitter.com/hywelroberts12/status/1410830490647633922?s=21
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,843
    Given the Tory enabler Galloway turned up to help them this is a poor result for them. A great night for a wonderful Labour candidate.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    Mucking about on Betfair after the polls closed cost me about £300 🙈 Should have just gone to bed

    Looks like the poll, and @NickPalmer, vastly undercooked the GG vote.

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    The Conservative vote has been very stable in Batley for a generation:

    1997 36.4%
    2001 36.7%
    2005 31.1%
    2010 33.0%
    2015 31.2%
    2017 38.8%
    2019 36.0%
    2021 34.4%

    Why people were betting on over 40% is beyond me.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

    Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,320
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Betfair does not seem in any great hurry to settle the market.

    I haven't used them since the US Election fiasco. They are rogues.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Foxy said:

    Good tip Mike. I lated the Tories for £20 at about 1.2, tempted to cash out but let it ride.


    'We're in the money, come on, my honey
    Let's spend it, lend it, send it rolling along............'
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,983
    Fishing said:

    Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

    So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

    The truthful answer is we don't know.

    The Asian vote (Indian and Pakistani) is supposedly equally split and makes up that 20% so GG can't have been getting his votes from there.

    I think anyone who reads anything into this election is actually asking for trouble, the simple answer is we don't know whose votes GG stole.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    A new dawn has broken has it not. ✊☺
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    another_richard said:

    A very nice winner on overall result and Conservative vote share.

    And nice to be proved right that the Heavy Wollens were not going to vote Conservative.

    And its lol bizarre that some PBers are trying to claim this as a huge victory for Labour and defeat for Boris.

    Don't be churlish.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    state_go_away said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

    Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.
    With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    kinabalu said:

    A new dawn has broken has it not. ✊☺

    Still can't see the Promised Land, though.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    MarqueeMark said:

    The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

    The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.

    Another question - Boris has just lost two by-elections within a fortnight where the Tories were massive favourites, should he consider his position?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HARTLEPOOL = PEAK BORIS. TOLD YOU SO.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    kinabalu said:

    another_richard said:

    A very nice winner on overall result and Conservative vote share.

    And nice to be proved right that the Heavy Wollens were not going to vote Conservative.

    And its lol bizarre that some PBers are trying to claim this as a huge victory for Labour and defeat for Boris.

    Don't be churlish.
    About what ???

    Is reality too painful for you ?
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    edited July 2021
    Fishing said:

    state_go_away said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

    Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.
    With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.
    No , Galloway masks how bad this was for the tories . Only a week or so before Hancock the tories were in a comfortable lead here and nationally . Hancock definitely lost this
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    state_go_away said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

    Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.
    Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their Covid caution. If we had unlocked on the 21st, the Conservatives would have won. The Hancock story would have had far less relevance if it is was announced after we had opened up.

    But this Government needs a significant Cabinet shake up, to put in place those Ministers who will face the voters in 2023/4 in their post. Or move on any duds.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,128
    edited July 2021
    logical_song said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

    The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.

    Another question - Boris has just lost two by-elections within a fortnight where the Tories were massive favourites, should he consider his position?
    Boris (& PB Tories) consider the matter closed.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I wonder whether Galloway took the Heavy Woolens voters?

    8k either for both does seem a remarkable coincidence.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,981
    The story from last night is one of Conservative failure not Labour success. It will suit absolutely no one to say that, so that will be forgotten.
    https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1410849910266662914
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,770
    isam said:

    How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

    I have just done the maths and the govt can continue to put in place unelected bureaucrats and spads to ignore parliament. Hope that helps.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,981
    Seems very much like George Galloway’s campaign actually saved Labour’s skin in Batley and Spen: he appears to have taken votes off both parties, with Tories down in both % and raw terms and only Galloway up https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1410850624804098052/photo/1
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    Fishing said:

    Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

    So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

    But Galloway made this tough. His presence stacked the deck against Labour and they still won. It's a genuinely very good result. It bodes well for longer term GE prospects. There are not - thankfully - 650 Galloways. Kim a great candidate choice of course. Surely made a difference.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    state_go_away said:

    Fishing said:

    state_go_away said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

    Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.
    With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.
    No , Galloway masks how bad this was for the tories . Only a week or so before Hancock the tories were in a comfortable lead here and nationally . Hancock definitely lost this
    Can’t really say that with any degree of confidence. We just don’t know.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,219
    MarqueeMark said:

    The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

    The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.

    Not necessarily. Richard Burgon says hello.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    state_go_away said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

    Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.
    It was very likely enough though when its only a question of a few hundred votes many factors could be blamed.

    It is another warning about the government's complacent lethargy - whether they act upon it is a different matter.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,292
    Fishing said:

    Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

    So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

    I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.

    And yet, it's a very low floor.

    It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,219
    edited July 2021
    isam said:

    How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

    Johnson on a mere 78 majority?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Betfair does not seem in any great hurry to settle the market.

    George is taking it to the Supreme Court so it could be a long wait. He says it was stolen from him by the radical Labour council.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,678
    Mexicanpete said:

    isam said:

    How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

    Johnson on a mere 78 majority?
    Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    another_richard said:

    A very nice winner on overall result and Conservative vote share.

    And nice to be proved right that the Heavy Wollens were not going to vote Conservative.

    And its lol bizarre that some PBers are trying to claim this as a huge victory for Labour and defeat for Boris.

    Perhaps because it was? It gives Labour momentum and it shows Tories that they can't assume that Johnson's Brexit morons are in the bag
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Gallowgate said:

    state_go_away said:

    Fishing said:

    state_go_away said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

    Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.
    With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.
    No , Galloway masks how bad this was for the tories . Only a week or so before Hancock the tories were in a comfortable lead here and nationally . Hancock definitely lost this
    Can’t really say that with any degree of confidence. We just don’t know.
    well maybe but nobody will ever make a bet if you need 100% confidence and evidence. Sometimes you just have to say what seems to to the case - pretty obvious to me that the narrowing of the polls after Hancock nationally had to mirror what happened in Batley. Terribel result for the tory leadership
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,703
    In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1410848867151663112?s=20
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

    So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

    But Galloway made this tough. His presence stacked the deck against Labour and they still won. It's a genuinely very good result. It bodes well for longer term GE prospects. There are not - thankfully - 650 Galloways. Kim a great candidate choice of course. Surely made a difference.
    His presence may have helped Labour by giving an anti-Starmer pro-Brexit voice for people to go to other than the Tories. Who knows, its impossible to second guess. 🤷‍♂️
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Mike Smithson = tipster of the year 2021. Simples!
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    …
    Scott_xP said:

    Seems very much like George Galloway’s campaign actually saved Labour’s skin in Batley and Spen: he appears to have taken votes off both parties, with Tories down in both % and raw terms and only Galloway up https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1410850624804098052/photo/1

    What if a GG type stood in every constituency where there is a 20% Islamic population?
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The biggest shame today is that someone as ghastly as Galloway can win as many as 8k votes.

    They aren't real votes - only protest votes in a by-election.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,981
    edited July 2021
    Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price this morning
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,678
    another_richard said:

    The Conservative vote has been very stable in Batley for a generation:

    1997 36.4%
    2001 36.7%
    2005 31.1%
    2010 33.0%
    2015 31.2%
    2017 38.8%
    2019 36.0%
    2021 34.4%

    Why people were betting on over 40% is beyond me.

    People thought they'd pick up most of the 12% for the Heavy Woollens.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    Scott_xP said:

    The story from last night is one of Conservative failure not Labour success. It will suit absolutely no one to say that, so that will be forgotten.
    https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1410849910266662914

    The opposition holding a seat by the skin of their teeth in a by election really doesnt feel like it should be framed like that
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,257
    Morning all,

    My TSE levels of modesty stop me from mentioning that I was on Labour at 3.95
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,981
    This will largely be missed in all the excitement, but it’s in Dominic Raab’s constituency.
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1410831808455925760

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1410734008539836419
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    LostPassword said:

    Fishing said:

    Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

    So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

    I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.

    And yet, it's a very low floor.

    It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.
    We have to be careful in using swings in a by-election to project forward to a general election.

    Are we seriously thinking that the swing *against* the Tories in C&A will be replicated in GE 2024?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,219
    Philip_Thompson said:

    This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.

    Governments don't win by-elections.

    They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andy_JS said:

    another_richard said:

    The Conservative vote has been very stable in Batley for a generation:

    1997 36.4%
    2001 36.7%
    2005 31.1%
    2010 33.0%
    2015 31.2%
    2017 38.8%
    2019 36.0%
    2021 34.4%

    Why people were betting on over 40% is beyond me.

    People thought they'd pick up most of the 12% for the Heavy Woollens.
    Galloway took it instead seems to be the only logical explanation.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I wonder whether Galloway took the Heavy Woolens voters?

    8k either for both does seem a remarkable coincidence.

    He would have got a significant number I suspect - they're anti-Labour and anti-Conservative.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,219
    Andy_JS said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    isam said:

    How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

    Johnson on a mere 78 majority?
    Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.
    Would that be, went up to 82, then back to 80 and now 78?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,981
    isam said:

    The opposition holding a seat by the skin of their teeth in a by election really doesnt feel like it should be framed like that

    Odds on favourites lose second in a row should be framed exactly like that
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    partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 311
    Thank you Mike and the whole PB community. It's at times like this that this site really comes into its own. I'm sure that, taken as a whole, PBers come out ahead of the bookies or other punters.

    What a pity we have many fewer by-elections these days on which the collective wisdom of this site can be brought to bear for betting success.
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Fishing said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The biggest shame today is that someone as ghastly as Galloway can win as many as 8k votes.

    They aren't real votes - only protest votes in a by-election.
    and tbh there needed to be a protest candidate given the utter hypocrisy we have seen with the tories over covid with the Hancock affair.Galloway does have a muslim following but he would have picked up tory votes as well who were disgusted with the last two weeks of Johnson and Hancock. I would have voted for him given the utter contempt that has been shown to the public
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Mexicanpete said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.

    Governments don't win by-elections.

    They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.
    If the Tories put up Galloway, I'd support the Liberal Democrats.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    I did tell you all that the Heavy Woollen Indies weren't like Brexit Party voters and wouldn't switch over to the Tories a la Hartlepool.

    I bet some of them switched to Galloway, they are the permanent awkward squad.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Mexicanpete said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    isam said:

    How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

    Johnson on a mere 78 majority?
    Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.
    Would that be, went up to 82, then back to 80 and now 78?
    No this doesn't change the arithmetic. This seat is a Labour hold, it was Labour and is still Labour so no change.

    80 -> 82 (Hartlepool) -> 80 (C&A) -> 80 (B&S)
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,250
    Fishing said:

    state_go_away said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

    Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.
    With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.
    Absolutely. A host of factors could have driven it. When its a tight race though you go and ask for every vote. The Tories didn't seem to have bothered much, certainly the candidate didn't. To lose by such a tight margin having failed to go out and ask people to vote for you seems arrogant in the extreme.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,257
    LostPassword said:

    Fishing said:

    Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

    So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

    I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.

    And yet, it's a very low floor.

    It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.
    Can we actually read anything into this weird and terrible by-election?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    edited July 2021
    Lord Hayward on Sky News now.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,219
    edited July 2021
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    isam said:

    How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

    Johnson on a mere 78 majority?
    Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.
    Would that be, went up to 82, then back to 80 and now 78?
    No this doesn't change the arithmetic. This seat is a Labour hold, it was Labour and is still Labour so no change.

    80 -> 82 (Hartlepool) -> 80 (C&A) -> 80 (B&S)
    My mistake I had forgotten this was a Labour hold. Just waiting for Maidenhead...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,257
    CarlottaVance said:

    In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1410848867151663112?s=20

    Payne thinks Johnson does that kind of reflective thinking?

    Hmm. It's a theory I suppose.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    Mexicanpete said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    isam said:

    How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

    Johnson on a mere 78 majority?
    Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.
    Would that be, went up to 82, then back to 80 and now 78?
    Why would he have lost any of his majority here?
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,359
    rottenborough said:

    LostPassword said:

    Fishing said:

    Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

    So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

    I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.

    And yet, it's a very low floor.

    It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.
    Can we actually read anything into this weird and terrible by-election?
    Well we know OGH isn't fond of Boris...
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,685
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Good tip Mike. I lated the Tories for £20 at about 1.2, tempted to cash out but let it ride.


    'We're in the money, come on, my honey
    Let's spend it, lend it, send it rolling along............'
    Well, off to the Isle of Wight next week, so shall spend my winnings on crab pasties and rock.

    Weather forecast not too bad.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,250
    CarlottaVance said:

    In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1410848867151663112?s=20

    He WAS sacked immediately! The narrative that Liar said "case closed" and did nothing and that Mancock decided his own position was untenable is one put out by bitter losers.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    Andy_JS said:

    another_richard said:

    The Conservative vote has been very stable in Batley for a generation:

    1997 36.4%
    2001 36.7%
    2005 31.1%
    2010 33.0%
    2015 31.2%
    2017 38.8%
    2019 36.0%
    2021 34.4%

    Why people were betting on over 40% is beyond me.

    People thought they'd pick up most of the 12% for the Heavy Woollens.
    If the Heavy Wollens were going to vote Conservative they would have done so in 2019.

    I don't think the Conservatives have reached 40% in any election in this constituency, local or general, since 1992.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,219
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.

    Governments don't win by-elections.

    They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.
    If the Tories put up Galloway, I'd support the Liberal Democrats.
    No, no. Galloway as a third way. Tories, Labour and Galloway.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,128
    isam said:

    …

    Scott_xP said:

    Seems very much like George Galloway’s campaign actually saved Labour’s skin in Batley and Spen: he appears to have taken votes off both parties, with Tories down in both % and raw terms and only Galloway up https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1410850624804098052/photo/1

    What if a GG type stood in every constituency where there is a 20% Islamic population?
    There’s only one GG thankfully.
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