Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?
So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.
I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.
And yet, it's a very low floor.
It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.
Can we actually read anything into this weird and terrible by-election?
Yes, Labour standing up against sectarianism and for LGBT is a winning formula.
‘Levelling up’: A report by the National Audit Office (NAO) found average per-pupil funding in the most deprived fifth of schools fell in real terms by 1.2% between 2017-18 and 2020-21, while it increased by 2.9% in the least deprived fifth.
Reminds me of when Pickles brought his ‘Revenue Spending Power’ formula to local government spending as austerity kicked in, and lo and behold the councils with the biggest cuts were poorer councils in Labour areas (including my own, Wakefield) and those with the lowest reductions, and even some modest increases, were wealthy Tory areas.
Of course, that is nearly a decade ago now, and since then the resentment at Tory austerity has been cynically harnessed to beget Brexit and damage the Red Wall. Result!
This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.
Governments don't win by-elections.
They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.
If the Tories put up Galloway, I'd support the Liberal Democrats.
No, no. Galloway as a third way. Tories, Labour and Galloway.
Galloway doesn't seem to have hurt Labour here.
Galloway seems to have taken the Heavy Woolens vote. The Tories have gained a small swing from Labour, but not enough to take the seat given it was already Labour's.
Utterly offtopic but as it's Covid we will be back to it at some point today
Latest data are that last winter 1 in 60 infections were fatal, now that’s fewer than 1 in 1000 thanks to the vaccine. Surely that’s the metric that matters, and the overall number of infections is no more important than number of flu cases, which we hardly notice?
The Tories couldn’t win a by election handed to them on a plate by the loathsome Galloway. Hilarious to see him now threatening court action because his masterplan to force Starmers resignation imploded .
This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.
Governments don't win by-elections.
They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.
If the Tories put up Galloway, I'd support the Liberal Democrats.
No, no. Galloway as a third way. Tories, Labour and Galloway.
Galloway doesn't seem to have hurt Labour here.
Galloway seems to have taken the Heavy Woolens vote. The Tories have gained a small swing from Labour, but not enough to take the seat given it was already Labour's.
I have been guilty of writing utter bollocks this morning (re Johnson's majority) Welcome to my club!
In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.
I do wonder if Boris’s blatant lie of “I sacked him really” has cut through for once.
Generally I would agree that the bluster is priced in to Boris, but this is a case of directly bullshitting the electorate. The electorate generally don’t like that.
This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.
Governments don't win by-elections.
They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.
If the Tories put up Galloway, I'd support the Liberal Democrats.
No, no. Galloway as a third way. Tories, Labour and Galloway.
Galloway doesn't seem to have hurt Labour here.
Galloway seems to have taken the Heavy Woolens vote. The Tories have gained a small swing from Labour, but not enough to take the seat given it was already Labour's.
I have been guilty of writing utter bollocks this morning (re Johnson's majority) Welcome to my club!
Mucking about on Betfair after the polls closed cost me about £300 🙈 Should have just gone to bed
Looks like the poll, and @NickPalmer, vastly undercooked the GG vote.
Palestine is a huge issue on the left. Starmer is going to have to stop his knee jerk reactions and understand that the left have an idealistic core that wont accept silence in the face of oppression.
FPT - if you received the AZ vaccine check your batch number (on your vaccination card) - if it's from one of the 3 batches produced in India it isn't recognised by the EU - though some EU countries under pressure from a furious India have said they'll recognise them:
However, up to five million doses of the version of the AZ jab in question have been administered in the UK and are identifiable by the vaccine batch numbers (4120Z001, 4120Z002, 4120Z003) included on recipients’ vaccine cards and in the Covid travel pass available via the NHS app, the Telegraph said.
Only vaccines approved by the EMA are included in the EU app, though individual member states are free to accept other vaccines if they choose.
This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.
Governments don't win by-elections.
They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.
If the Tories put up Galloway, I'd support the Liberal Democrats.
No, no. Galloway as a third way. Tories, Labour and Galloway.
Galloway doesn't seem to have hurt Labour here.
Galloway seems to have taken the Heavy Woolens vote. The Tories have gained a small swing from Labour, but not enough to take the seat given it was already Labour's.
I have been guilty of writing utter bollocks this morning (re Johnson's majority) Welcome to my club!
Utterly offtopic but as it's Covid we will be back to it at some point today
Latest data are that last winter 1 in 60 infections were fatal, now that’s fewer than 1 in 1000 thanks to the vaccine. Surely that’s the metric that matters, and the overall number of infections is no more important than number of flu cases, which we hardly notice?
Which feels right to me but does mean top up vaccinations for a few years will be essential.
We will treat this like flu I hope. I'm not convinced we will. I think the indie SAGE brigade and so on have persuaded too many people that we can save just about everyone if only we do X and Y and Z.
I did tell you all that the Heavy Woollen Indies weren't like Brexit Party voters and wouldn't switch over to the Tories a la Hartlepool.
I bet some of them switched to Galloway, they are the permanent awkward squad.
I've bee calling the Heavy Woollen > Galloway switch for a couple of weeks. Happily did him no good, but does show that not all anti-Labour voters are a gimme for the Tories.
Three by elections under Sir Keir, & Labour have done worse than Jezza GE19 in all of them
Fair enough they are happy to him B&S, but that’s not really good is it?
The Tories would be ousting their leader in such circumstances, I think.
Of course, what's going on at the moment is all a bit meaningless. The next general election will be fought in the wake of COVID. We'll soon be back to arguments about austerity.
The Tories couldn’t win a by election handed to them on a plate by the loathsome Galloway. Hilarious to see him now threatening court action because his masterplan to force Starmers resignation imploded .
To be fair* to Galloway, he came very close to causing a Labour loss. Which *might*, in turn have caused a challenged to Keir. So trying to get a recount and hope for a few hundred votes differently distributed**....
Thing to take away from this by-election
- Labour finally win something - Narrow loss for the Conservatives in a seat they would normally never come near, - Gallowayism is still a thing. Thankfully, it is quite personal - he can't start a party of Gallowayism. - Anyone announcing "X won/loss" the election, without data, is simply stating their hopes.
*I have no idea why I would be fair to GG. **Which ain't going to happen. And even if it did, election tellers in this country don't make mistakes on the scale of hundreds in by-elections, generally. This isn't the US. Or Peru.
Three by elections under Sir Keir, & Labour have done worse than Jezza GE19 in all of them
Fair enough they are happy to him B&S, but that’s not really good is it?
It’s a win. Does it solve all the problems? No. Does it solve the major problem? Yes. Labour are winning again.
A narrow win with a hugely reduced majority when you held the seat anyway isn’t that much of a win really when in opposition. But in terms of turning points for Sir Keir, maybe it will be like Mark Robins winner for Man Utd in the 1990 FA Cup 3rd round. A scrappy 1-0 but the downside was unthinkable
In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.
He WAS sacked immediately! The narrative that Liar said "case closed" and did nothing and that Mancock decided his own position was untenable is one put out by bitter losers.
Hancock has had almost perfect cutthrough across all ages and backgrounds (and everyone understands a sex scandal) and I can't see how it wouldn't have damaged the Tories.
This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.
Governments don't win by-elections.
They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.
If the Tories put up Galloway, I'd support the Liberal Democrats.
No, no. Galloway as a third way. Tories, Labour and Galloway.
Galloway doesn't seem to have hurt Labour here.
Galloway seems to have taken the Heavy Woolens vote. The Tories have gained a small swing from Labour, but not enough to take the seat given it was already Labour's.
I have been guilty of writing utter bollocks this morning (re Johnson's majority) Welcome to my club!
Which bit of it was wrong? 🤔
Galloway not hurting Labour. And all day long!
How do you know Galloway hurt Labour.
If the assumption was Heavy Woolens would go Tory, but they went Galloway instead, then his presence may have saved Labour.
Three by elections under Sir Keir, & Labour have done worse than Jezza GE19 in all of them
Fair enough they are happy to him B&S, but that’s not really good is it?
It’s a win. Does it solve all the problems? No. Does it solve the major problem? Yes. Labour are winning again.
A narrow win with a hugely reduced majority when you held the seat anyway isn’t that much of a win really when in opposition. But in terms of turning points for Sir Keir, maybe it will be like Mark Robins winner for Man Utd in the 1990 FA Cup 3rd round. A scrappy 1-0 but the downside was unthinkable
Keir was battling on all fronts. The Tories were only a small part of it. The victory was essential. We will see if it’s a turning point. Personally I believe that it is critical for Labour to understand what is needed to win and get into the habit, That was achieved.
Tories really pushing the “it’s a Labour hold not a Labour win” line. 323 majority is an undoubtedly concerning margin for Labour, but whichever way you look at it, the seat is theirs and Tories didn’t win it when they v easily could have. https://twitter.com/laurasilver_/status/1410857322394554368
Off topic, the grauniad and torygraph agree on the utter yukness of the new Diana statue. I hear the Spencer family were up to their necks in the slave trade...
The Tories couldn’t win a by election handed to them on a plate by the loathsome Galloway. Hilarious to see him now threatening court action because his masterplan to force Starmers resignation imploded .
To be fair* to Galloway, he came very close to causing a Labour loss. Which *might*, in turn have caused a challenged to Keir. So trying to get a recount and hope for a few hundred votes differently distributed**....
Thing to take away from this by-election
- Labour finally win something - Narrow loss for the Conservatives in a seat they would normally never come near, - Gallowayism is still a thing. Thankfully, it is quite personal - he can't start a party of Gallowayism. - Anyone announcing "X won/loss" the election, without data, is simply stating their hopes.
*I have no idea why I would be fair to GG. **Which ain't going to happen. And even if it did, election tellers in this country don't make mistakes on the scale of hundreds in by-elections, generally. This isn't the US. Or Peru.
Agree with much of that, apart from point 2 Wikipedia, rightly, says: 'The results of the last fifty years show marginal majorities for Labour and for the Conservatives.'
In fairness to Survation, i don’t think Muslims who vote Galloway, and the type that vote Heavy Woollens are going to respond to opinion polls as easily as Labour and Conservative voters. And the poll was pre Hancock
Utterly offtopic but as it's Covid we will be back to it at some point today
Latest data are that last winter 1 in 60 infections were fatal, now that’s fewer than 1 in 1000 thanks to the vaccine. Surely that’s the metric that matters, and the overall number of infections is no more important than number of flu cases, which we hardly notice?
In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.
I do wonder if Boris’s blatant lie of “I sacked him really” has cut through for once.
Generally I would agree that the bluster is priced in to Boris, but this is a case of directly bullshitting the electorate. The electorate generally don’t like that.
I'm not sure. The lies get noticed and forgiven but the zeitgeist can change very quickly. Perhaps voters have decided enough is enough? I'm sure that's what's going to finish him.
So we have had three recent English by-elections, each of which has produced a somewhat unexpected result, (*) produced a win for each of the three main English parties, and a net loss of one seat for the ruling party.
There's literally something for everyone, and it's quite hard to produce a convincing narrative about these results.
(*) We can argue that last night's was not unexpected: an opposition hold of a seat; but it did not go with the narrative.
Off topic, the grauniad and torygraph agree on the utter yukness of the new Diana statue. I hear the Spencer family were up to their necks in the slave trade...
Excellent result for Starmer, no gettting around it. He would have been in very serious trouble if he had lost but a win is a win and getting the win with Galloway over 8k is impressive.
The Tories have fallen back quite a bit. Still by no means the worst position for a mid term 4th term government but they are well off their peak. I would not be at all surprised to see polling with Labour level very soon.
Three by elections under Sir Keir, & Labour have done worse than Jezza GE19 in all of them
Fair enough they are happy to him B&S, but that’s not really good is it?
It’s a win. Does it solve all the problems? No. Does it solve the major problem? Yes. Labour are winning again.
A narrow win with a hugely reduced majority when you held the seat anyway isn’t that much of a win really when in opposition. But in terms of turning points for Sir Keir, maybe it will be like Mark Robins winner for Man Utd in the 1990 FA Cup 3rd round. A scrappy 1-0 but the downside was unthinkable
Keir was battling on all fronts. The Tories were only a small part of it. The victory was essential. We will see if it’s a turning point. Personally I believe that it is critical for Labour to understand what is needed to win and get into the habit, That was achieved.
I think the underlying metrics of the three recent by elections are terrible for Labour - (their three worst shares ever in the constituencies?), but, if this hold gives Sir Keir what I would consider false confidence, the subsequent spring in his step may see a change in perception of him. And Boris may lose confidence .
So, although in my eyes this should be a worrying result for Labour, if they genuinely don’t care about the underlying metrics it could be a turning point.
People thought they'd pick up most of the 12% for the Heavy Woollens.
If the Heavy Wollens were going to vote Conservative they would have done so in 2019.
I don't think the Conservatives have reached 40% in any election in this constituency, local or general, since 1992.
The Tories hadn't reached 40% in Hartlepool since Feb '74, but were over 50% in the by-election. Apparently there's a once-in-a-century realignment in English politics underway.
Mucking about on Betfair after the polls closed cost me about £300 🙈 Should have just gone to bed
Looks like the poll, and @NickPalmer, vastly undercooked the GG vote.
Yes, it did and I did, and there's an interesting possible reason which, to be fair Mr Ed pointed out in a private exchange. There is a linguistic problem in canvassing/polling voters whose first language isn't English. By chance most of the voters who I phone-canvassed didn't have that issue, but where it arose we exchanged polite mumbles and I wasn't sure what I'd been told. It's much easier on the doorstep, but Survation polls nowdays are I think phone polls.
It's possible, as another_richard has suggested, that a chunk of the Galloway vote was ex-Heavy Woollen, which would fit with the Muslim vote actually being divided between Galloway and Labour, as I'd heard. But actual sightings of non-Muslim voters saying they were voting Galloway have been almost non-existent. So I think we need to concede that the Muslim vote probably did go heavily for Galloway.
The Tories couldn’t win a by election handed to them on a plate by the loathsome Galloway. Hilarious to see him now threatening court action because his masterplan to force Starmers resignation imploded .
To be fair* to Galloway, he came very close to causing a Labour loss. Which *might*, in turn have caused a challenged to Keir. So trying to get a recount and hope for a few hundred votes differently distributed**....
Thing to take away from this by-election
- Labour finally win something - Narrow loss for the Conservatives in a seat they would normally never come near, - Gallowayism is still a thing. Thankfully, it is quite personal - he can't start a party of Gallowayism. - Anyone announcing "X won/loss" the election, without data, is simply stating their hopes.
*I have no idea why I would be fair to GG. **Which ain't going to happen. And even if it did, election tellers in this country don't make mistakes on the scale of hundreds in by-elections, generally. This isn't the US. Or Peru.
Agree with much of that, apart from point 2 Wikipedia, rightly, says: 'The results of the last fifty years show marginal majorities for Labour and for the Conservatives.'
I think Elizabeth Peacock had a significant personal vote - the Conservatives did well in 1997 and 2001 when she was still the candidate.
Its probably drifted away from them demographically as well - in the 1980s and 1990s Batley was better for the Conservatives than Dewsbury but its now the other way around.
The Tories couldn’t win a by election handed to them on a plate by the loathsome Galloway. Hilarious to see him now threatening court action because his masterplan to force Starmers resignation imploded .
To be fair* to Galloway, he came very close to causing a Labour loss. Which *might*, in turn have caused a challenged to Keir. So trying to get a recount and hope for a few hundred votes differently distributed**....
Thing to take away from this by-election
- Labour finally win something - Narrow loss for the Conservatives in a seat they would normally never come near, - Gallowayism is still a thing. Thankfully, it is quite personal - he can't start a party of Gallowayism. - Anyone announcing "X won/loss" the election, without data, is simply stating their hopes.
*I have no idea why I would be fair to GG. **Which ain't going to happen. And even if it did, election tellers in this country don't make mistakes on the scale of hundreds in by-elections, generally. This isn't the US. Or Peru.
I'm not sure about - Narrow loss for the Conservatives in a seat they would normally never come near,
as this is really prime Red Wall territory and yet the Tories didn't win but it's impossible to tell as this was a unique seat back in 2019 (the Brexit party got nowhere) and it GG in this election means it's hard to work out the reality as we don't know where his votes came from (did he steal ethnic Labour voters or did he only have Heavy Woollen votes who might otherwise not have voted).
Baffled by the idea Galloway took Tory votes, even John Curtice says it in his analysis.
One clue towards the result were the local elections with Labour and Tories neck and neck and a Lib Dem and Green vote to squeeze on top of that for Labour.
So we have had three recent English by-elections, each of which has produced a somewhat unexpected result, (*) produced a win for each of the three main English parties, and a net loss of one seat for the ruling party.
There's literally something for everyone, and it's quite hard to produce a convincing narrative about these results.
(*) We can argue that last night's was not unexpected: an opposition hold of a seat; but it did not go with the narrative.
I don’t think the Tories have a net loss from those three by elections.
Another brilliant tip and associated analysis by Mike Smithson.
Only the foolhardy bet against him so some of you tory cheerleaders may wish to note his thoughts about the current direction of political travel.
And on a personal note may I again thank Mike? I had an excellent day at Wimbledon this week with a friend, which was only a fraction of my winnings on Chesham and Amersham All thanks to Mike.
Off topic, the grauniad and torygraph agree on the utter yukness of the new Diana statue. I hear the Spencer family were up to their necks in the slave trade...
They’ll need statue protectors solely on the grounds of taste. It’s not just ‘well, opinions differ’ bad, it’s insultingly so. Assuming that everyone involved wanted it to be a meaningful work, couldn’t they have got some sort Surveyor of the Queen’s Pictures type person to advise?
Mucking about on Betfair after the polls closed cost me about £300 🙈 Should have just gone to bed
Looks like the poll, and @NickPalmer, vastly undercooked the GG vote.
Yes, it did and I did, and there's an interesting possible reason which, to be fair Mr Ed pointed out in a private exchange. There is a linguistic problem in canvassing/polling voters whose first language isn't English. By chance most of the voters who I phone-canvassed didn't have that issue, but where it arose we exchanged polite mumbles and I wasn't sure what I'd been told. It's much easier on the doorstep, but Survation polls nowdays are I think phone polls.
It's possible, as another_richard has suggested, that a chunk of the Galloway vote was ex-Heavy Woollen, which would fit with the Muslim vote actually being divided between Galloway and Labour, as I'd heard. But actual sightings of non-Muslim voters saying they were voting Galloway have been almost non-existent. So I think we need to concede that the Muslim vote probably did go heavily for Galloway.
I agree
I doubt Heavy Woollens not GG Muslims respond to opinion polls. That’s my major problem with political polling, too many politicos
Three by elections under Sir Keir, & Labour have done worse than Jezza GE19 in all of them
Fair enough they are happy to him B&S, but that’s not really good is it?
It’s a win. Does it solve all the problems? No. Does it solve the major problem? Yes. Labour are winning again.
A narrow win with a hugely reduced majority when you held the seat anyway isn’t that much of a win really when in opposition. But in terms of turning points for Sir Keir, maybe it will be like Mark Robins winner for Man Utd in the 1990 FA Cup 3rd round. A scrappy 1-0 but the downside was unthinkable
Keir was battling on all fronts. The Tories were only a small part of it. The victory was essential. We will see if it’s a turning point. Personally I believe that it is critical for Labour to understand what is needed to win and get into the habit, That was achieved.
I think the underlying metrics of the three recent [...]
underlying metrics i.
I'm sorry you lost money overnight but that's no excuse for such an awful piece of gobbledygook.
Consequences? I have been assured this morning that the Campaign Group, Rayner, Butler, Jones et al were definitely not hoping for a Labour loss so that they could challenge Starmer and once again bring about True Socialism.
Off topic, the grauniad and torygraph agree on the utter yukness of the new Diana statue. I hear the Spencer family were up to their necks in the slave trade...
I think it has to be the person themselves before a statue gets desecrated! Though in this instance it might have done her a favour
Having watched late last night, and a bit earlyish this morning, it was fascinating.
Did many people make much of a bonus on betting on Lab at 5-1 or so overnight?
I had £3 on the Gallywhacker at 70 as a pure expect to lose punt. And lost ! Did we expect him to do better than this - 8k votes (10% of the entire electorate) seems to be more than was expected by many? Who were they?
I'm quite interested in whether the Tories could have swung this Red Wall (ish) seat had they run the kind of operation Nick has been talking about, or did they do that and just kept quiet about it? I it just that we don't have a blue version of OGH in the Tory-mole role?
Are we seeing a potential limit to the Red Wall move?
Quite surprised at the remarkable attempts at arse-cover by Jon from Sky News
Three by elections under Sir Keir, & Labour have done worse than Jezza GE19 in all of them
Fair enough they are happy to him B&S, but that’s not really good is it?
It’s a win. Does it solve all the problems? No. Does it solve the major problem? Yes. Labour are winning again.
A narrow win with a hugely reduced majority when you held the seat anyway isn’t that much of a win really when in opposition. But in terms of turning points for Sir Keir, maybe it will be like Mark Robins winner for Man Utd in the 1990 FA Cup 3rd round. A scrappy 1-0 but the downside was unthinkable
Keir was battling on all fronts. The Tories were only a small part of it. The victory was essential. We will see if it’s a turning point. Personally I believe that it is critical for Labour to understand what is needed to win and get into the habit, That was achieved.
I think the underlying metrics of the three recent [...]
underlying metrics i.
I'm sorry you lost money overnight but that's no excuse for such an awful piece of gobbledygook.
I won £100!
You weren’t around for the Lib Dem 50 ups of GE 2019 were you?
Excellent result for Starmer, no gettting around it. He would have been in very serious trouble if he had lost but a win is a win and getting the win with Galloway over 8k is impressive.
The Tories have fallen back quite a bit. Still by no means the worst position for a mid term 4th term government but they are well off their peak. I would not be at all surprised to see polling with Labour level very soon.
Yes. I. think the Hancock affair may have done them some permanent moderate damage. It rekindled all the Barnard Castle memories, which Boris thought he'd got rid of by sacking Cummings.
It also had the effect of bringing some of Cummings himself's criticisms from a few weeks before, which originally looked a bit like old news, back into focus. Very unfortunately for the Tories, it's reminded voters simultaneously of the sleaze theme, via the personal and professional contacts in the story, and the Covid restrictions hypocrisy theme, just as the narrative was turning towards Covid freedom day.
A long term take away from the result is that there continues to be potential space for an anti Tory party appealing mostly to socially conservative Islamists who could vote Labour but not Tory.
This is a mirror image of the various threats to the Tory vote from groups ranging from OK to loopy to fascist, which ATM the Tories have generally seen off.
A Labour party sharing its potential voters with LDs, Greens, SNP, and a post Galloway party is not an east place to be.
Having said that, as one who doesn't generally vote Labour in GEs (but does in local elections) in this case I would have voted Labour here, and wonder if a few moderate Tories felt the same.
Excellent result for Starmer, no gettting around it. He would have been in very serious trouble if he had lost but a win is a win and getting the win with Galloway over 8k is impressive.
The Tories have fallen back quite a bit. Still by no means the worst position for a mid term 4th term government but they are well off their peak. I would not be at all surprised to see polling with Labour level very soon.
I think that's a very measured and very accurate assessment of the state of play.
And with that excellent summary I shall head off the board for the day. Have a lovely one wherever you are and whatever you are doing and for you personally DavidL, I hope your health is improving and that you will soon be back to full strength.
A narrow Labour hold in urban West Yorkshire is not a result typically received with breathless gasps of relief by the party leadership. But for Keir Starmer and those desperate for party unity, it is without doubt a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat.
On our respective visits to Batley and Spen, my colleague Anoosh Chakelian and I remarked that Kim Leadbeater, the Labour candidate, was an unquestionable asset to the campaign. She appealed to would-be voters and her literature was markedly less Labour in branding than previous efforts by the party, and one wonders if it was this which proved key to the final result.
When approached on his preference, for instance, one resident remarked last week to a canvasser: “Yes, I’ll vote for Kim, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be supporting Labour!”
In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.
He WAS sacked immediately! The narrative that Liar said "case closed" and did nothing and that Mancock decided his own position was untenable is one put out by bitter losers.
Hancock has had almost perfect cutthrough across all ages and backgrounds (and everyone understands a sex scandal) and I can't see how it wouldn't have damaged the Tories.
Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?
So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.
But Galloway made this tough. His presence stacked the deck against Labour and they still won. It's a genuinely very good result. It bodes well for longer term GE prospects. There are not - thankfully - 650 Galloways. Kim a great candidate choice of course. Surely made a difference.
Galloway only needs to get lucky once and then he can start rolling out other candidates in time for the GE.
Having watched late last night, and a bit earlyish this morning.
Did many people make much of a bonus on betting on Lab at 5-1 or so overnight?
I had £3 on the Gallywhacker at 70 as a pure expect to lose punt. And lost ! Did we expect him to do better than this - 8k votes seems to be more than was expected by many?
I'm quite interested in whether the Tories could have swung this Red Wall (ish) seat had they run the kind of operation Nick has been talking about, or did they do that and just kept quiet about it? I it just that we don't have a blue version of OGH in the Tory-mole role?
Are we seeing a potential limit to the Red Wall move?
Quite surprised at the remarkable attempts at arse-cover by Jon from Sky News
There's an assumption that everything northern is 'red wall'.
It isn't.
The 'red wall' are traditional Labour constituencies that have politically and usually demographically (though that bit is usually ignored by the media) moved towards the Conservatives.
Batley has if anything, because of the growing Muslim population, been moving away from the Conservatives.
Some B&S thoughts: 1. Brilliant Labour expectation management. 2. Superb Labour GOTV operation. 3. Both suggest a significant uptick in party management after Starmer's recent backroom reshuffle. 4. Galloway got a lot more than Muslim votes. 5. By rooting so openly for Galloway, the far-left has done itself a great deal of harm inside Labour. 6. Hubris is always the Tory Achilles heal. It hurt them big time here. 7. The LibDem vote share was down only 1.3%. Compare and contrast with the fall in the Labour vote share in Chesham & Amersham. 8. We need to stop talking about politics as normal. We don't know what normal is anymore. 9. Above all else, the significance of this is that Labour did not lose and the headlines and summer the result has therefore prevented.
Three by elections under Sir Keir, & Labour have done worse than Jezza GE19 in all of them
Fair enough they are happy to him B&S, but that’s not really good is it?
It’s a win. Does it solve all the problems? No. Does it solve the major problem? Yes. Labour are winning again.
A narrow win with a hugely reduced majority when you held the seat anyway isn’t that much of a win really when in opposition. But in terms of turning points for Sir Keir, maybe it will be like Mark Robins winner for Man Utd in the 1990 FA Cup 3rd round. A scrappy 1-0 but the downside was unthinkable
Keir was battling on all fronts. The Tories were only a small part of it. The victory was essential. We will see if it’s a turning point. Personally I believe that it is critical for Labour to understand what is needed to win and get into the habit, That was achieved.
I think the underlying metrics of the three recent [...]
underlying metrics i.
I'm sorry you lost money overnight but that's no excuse for such an awful piece of gobbledygook.
I won £100!
You weren’t around for the Lib Dem 50 ups of GE 2019 were you?
I was referring to your self-confessed loss just now of £300 overnight.
I am very long in the tooth and have seen many rise and fall. I didn't bet on the LibDems in 2019. Jo Swinson was awful and the country was in a remarkably different worldview.
FPT - if you received the AZ vaccine check your batch number (on your vaccination card) - if it's from one of the 3 batches produced in India it isn't recognised by the EU - though some EU countries under pressure from a furious India have said they'll recognise them:
However, up to five million doses of the version of the AZ jab in question have been administered in the UK and are identifiable by the vaccine batch numbers (4120Z001, 4120Z002, 4120Z003) included on recipients’ vaccine cards and in the Covid travel pass available via the NHS app, the Telegraph said.
Only vaccines approved by the EMA are included in the EU app, though individual member states are free to accept other vaccines if they choose.
Just checked. Ours are Vaxzevria, but that is just a brand name so no guarantee that they were not made by SII. No explicit batch numbers are shown on the certificate though it carries a mark "EU/1/21/1529". Perhaps that means it was approved by the EMA. Clear as mud. This could become a source of contention for travellers.
Mucking about on Betfair after the polls closed cost me about £300 🙈 Should have just gone to bed
Looks like the poll, and @NickPalmer, vastly undercooked the GG vote.
Yes, it did and I did, and there's an interesting possible reason which, to be fair Mr Ed pointed out in a private exchange. There is a linguistic problem in canvassing/polling voters whose first language isn't English. By chance most of the voters who I phone-canvassed didn't have that issue, but where it arose we exchanged polite mumbles and I wasn't sure what I'd been told. It's much easier on the doorstep, but Survation polls nowdays are I think phone polls.
It's possible, as another_richard has suggested, that a chunk of the Galloway vote was ex-Heavy Woollen, which would fit with the Muslim vote actually being divided between Galloway and Labour, as I'd heard. But actual sightings of non-Muslim voters saying they were voting Galloway have been almost non-existent. So I think we need to concede that the Muslim vote probably did go heavily for Galloway.
I agree
I doubt Heavy Woollens not GG Muslims respond to opinion polls. That’s my major problem with political polling, too many politicos
Quite alot of the more err... interesting political protest movements around the world explicitly tell their followers not to respond to opinion polling. This is because opinion polling is the work of The Establishment (insert local equivalent) - as so probably involves George Soros etc etc
A narrow Labour hold in urban West Yorkshire is not a result typically received with breathless gasps of relief by the party leadership. But for Keir Starmer and those desperate for party unity, it is without doubt a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat.
On our respective visits to Batley and Spen, my colleague Anoosh Chakelian and I remarked that Kim Leadbeater, the Labour candidate, was an unquestionable asset to the campaign. She appealed to would-be voters and her literature was markedly less Labour in branding than previous efforts by the party, and one wonders if it was this which proved key to the final result.
When approached on his preference, for instance, one resident remarked last week to a canvasser: “Yes, I’ll vote for Kim, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be supporting Labour!”
I’m old enough to remember folk saying Kim Leadbeater was a terrible candidate chosen only because of who she was related to and who couldn’t handle some lippy twats shouting at her.
Mucking about on Betfair after the polls closed cost me about £300 🙈 Should have just gone to bed
Looks like the poll, and @NickPalmer, vastly undercooked the GG vote.
Palestine is a huge issue on the left. Starmer is going to have to stop his knee jerk reactions and understand that the left have an idealistic core that wont accept silence in the face of oppression.
Absolutely. He should tell it to them straight:
"There are plenty of troublespots in the world with people oppressed by a strong power. That you exclusively talk about Palestine and condemn Israel with no interest in the rest is anti-semitism. We are an anti-racist party with a proud history of internationalism. That means there is no place in the party for racism. Anti-semitism is racism. If any of you express racist opinions again I will expel you."
Its 25 years since I was at University. I didn't get the Palestine thing then and I don't now. Yes the Israeli government under Netanyahu has been appalling. But its hardly unique in the world, yet to hear the PSC loons it is the only injustice and its all on Israel and Israel alone. I honestly don't think some of them think they are anti-semites (though many do and are quite happy about it). Labour tries to educate them - and I appreciate (from experience) that its easy for comments criticising their government to slip over the line. But the reponse isn't "thanks" its "lets persecute anyone who doesn't agree with our extreme view that Israel has no right to exist and should be removed from the map"
Having watched late last night, and a bit earlyish this morning.
Did many people make much of a bonus on betting on Lab at 5-1 or so overnight?
I had £3 on the Gallywhacker at 70 as a pure expect to lose punt. And lost ! Did we expect him to do better than this - 8k votes seems to be more than was expected by many?
I'm quite interested in whether the Tories could have swung this Red Wall (ish) seat had they run the kind of operation Nick has been talking about, or did they do that and just kept quiet about it? I it just that we don't have a blue version of OGH in the Tory-mole role?
Are we seeing a potential limit to the Red Wall move?
Quite surprised at the remarkable attempts at arse-cover by Jon from Sky News
There's an assumption that everything northern is 'red wall'.
It isn't.
The 'red wall' are traditional Labour constituencies that have politically and usually demographically (though that bit is usually ignored by the media) moved towards the Conservatives.
Batley has if anything, because of the growing Muslim population, been moving away from the Conservatives.
Precisely!
The red wall is seats that demographics should be Tory if they were anywhere else in the country, but was staying Labour for historical reasons. Where people have in the past decade been able to afford to buy their own home etc.
Which means it may be harder than people think for Labour to regain the red wall seats.
The red wall is not as some people imagine some angry impoverished wasteland of sadness and depression.
The EU on the AZN vaccine are showing appalling neo-colonialism. I'm afraid that it reveals one of their worst features. If you're in the club it's often great. But if you live outside of it, especially in poorer nations, their sense of colonial superiority sometimes shines through. The French (like the British) have often had a supercilious colonial attitude but there are other nations not far behind them: the Germans, Belges and some eastern bloc countries too. Often there's a whiff of underlying racism. It takes a long time to shake off the C19th philosophies, and theologies, of superiority.
They need to sort this out or they risk serious global unrest.
Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?
So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.
I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.
And yet, it's a very low floor.
It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.
Can we actually read anything into this weird and terrible by-election?
There's before and after. The vote itself probably tells us nothing but the result might significantly change the weather
Comments
Johnson beginning to look rather shop soiled.
Ever heard of hypocrisy.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jul/02/funding-for-deprived-schools-in-england-has-shifted-to-wealthy-areas-study-finds
Reminds me of when Pickles brought his ‘Revenue Spending Power’ formula to local government spending as austerity kicked in, and lo and behold the councils with the biggest cuts were poorer councils in Labour areas (including my own, Wakefield) and those with the lowest reductions, and even some modest increases, were wealthy Tory areas.
Of course, that is nearly a decade ago now, and since then the resentment at Tory austerity has been cynically harnessed to beget Brexit and damage the Red Wall. Result!
Galloway seems to have taken the Heavy Woolens vote. The Tories have gained a small swing from Labour, but not enough to take the seat given it was already Labour's.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_96_1.png
Latest data are that last winter 1 in 60 infections were fatal, now that’s fewer than 1 in 1000 thanks to the vaccine. Surely that’s the metric that matters, and the overall number of infections is no more important than number of flu cases, which we hardly notice?
https://twitter.com/BenAndo/status/1410841764940894209
Which feels right to me but does mean top up vaccinations for a few years will be essential.
Generally I would agree that the bluster is priced in to Boris, but this is a case of directly bullshitting the electorate. The electorate generally don’t like that.
What's your favourite album?
@AaronBastani
Things Labour could have done to keep #BatleyAndSpen:
Keir_Starmer visits constituency with zarahsultana has roundtable on islamophobia.
Starmer goes to Cleckheaton to say Labour got it wrong on Brexit
Give jeremycorbyn back whip, get him johnmcdonnell up there
Fair enough they are happy to hold B&S, but that’s not really good is it?
However, up to five million doses of the version of the AZ jab in question have been administered in the UK and are identifiable by the vaccine batch numbers (4120Z001, 4120Z002, 4120Z003) included on recipients’ vaccine cards and in the Covid travel pass available via the NHS app, the Telegraph said.
Only vaccines approved by the EMA are included in the EU app, though individual member states are free to accept other vaccines if they choose.
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-07-01/covid-up-to-five-million-brits-may-be-unable-to-visit-europe-as-eu-does-not-recognise-india-produced-az-jabs
2017: 55.5%
2019: 42.7%
2021: 35.3%
A 20 percentage point drop in 4yrs
Critical context to today’s cheering....
The drop in Labour’s vote share between 2019 and 2021 in Batley (7.4%points) was similar to in Hartlepool (9%points).
Which again, amid Labour’s undeniable good news day, suggests deeper problems remain.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1410850297275105282?s=20
Of course, what's going on at the moment is all a bit meaningless. The next general election will be fought in the wake of COVID. We'll soon be back to arguments about austerity.
Thing to take away from this by-election
- Labour finally win something
- Narrow loss for the Conservatives in a seat they would normally never come near,
- Gallowayism is still a thing. Thankfully, it is quite personal - he can't start a party of Gallowayism.
- Anyone announcing "X won/loss" the election, without data, is simply stating their hopes.
*I have no idea why I would be fair to GG.
**Which ain't going to happen. And even if it did, election tellers in this country don't make mistakes on the scale of hundreds in by-elections, generally. This isn't the US. Or Peru.
They'd have probably won by 1-2k without it.
If the assumption was Heavy Woolens would go Tory, but they went Galloway instead, then his presence may have saved Labour.
Its impossible to tell really.
https://twitter.com/laurasilver_/status/1410857322394554368
Wikipedia, rightly, says:
'The results of the last fifty years show marginal majorities for Labour and for the Conservatives.'
But in light of the Batley and Spen result, the more immediate qn is what consequences there might be for the plotters...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7479442-daae-11eb-8f14-0bb645f59db0?shareToken=03eafcbe71a6e82b6751b5940acbea8c
How would an Islamic Party fare?
There's literally something for everyone, and it's quite hard to produce a convincing narrative about these results.
(*) We can argue that last night's was not unexpected: an opposition hold of a seat; but it did not go with the narrative.
So, in general, there is money to be picked up.
Which is why this blog exists.....
The first takeaway from that is the the betting market isn't a kind of poll. It has zero value as an input.
The Tories have fallen back quite a bit. Still by no means the worst position for a mid term 4th term government but they are well off their peak. I would not be at all surprised to see polling with Labour level very soon.
So, although in my eyes this should be a worrying result for Labour, if they genuinely don’t care about the underlying metrics it could be a turning point.
It's possible, as another_richard has suggested, that a chunk of the Galloway vote was ex-Heavy Woollen, which would fit with the Muslim vote actually being divided between Galloway and Labour, as I'd heard. But actual sightings of non-Muslim voters saying they were voting Galloway have been almost non-existent. So I think we need to concede that the Muslim vote probably did go heavily for Galloway.
Its probably drifted away from them demographically as well - in the 1980s and 1990s Batley was better for the Conservatives than Dewsbury but its now the other way around.
- Narrow loss for the Conservatives in a seat they would normally never come near,
as this is really prime Red Wall territory and yet the Tories didn't win but it's impossible to tell as this was a unique seat back in 2019 (the Brexit party got nowhere) and it GG in this election means it's hard to work out the reality as we don't know where his votes came from (did he steal ethnic Labour voters or did he only have Heavy Woollen votes who might otherwise not have voted).
One clue towards the result were the local elections with Labour and Tories neck and neck and a Lib Dem and Green vote to squeeze on top of that for Labour.
A win, a loss, and a draw
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1410860150194327553
Only the foolhardy bet against him so some of you tory cheerleaders may wish to note his thoughts about the current direction of political travel.
And on a personal note may I again thank Mike? I had an excellent day at Wimbledon this week with a friend, which was only a fraction of my winnings on Chesham and Amersham
When he said 5-10% chance of winning I knew it was much closer than that
It’s not just ‘well, opinions differ’ bad, it’s insultingly so. Assuming that everyone involved wanted it to be a meaningful work, couldn’t they have got some sort Surveyor of the Queen’s Pictures type person to advise?
I agree
I doubt Heavy Woollens not GG Muslims respond to opinion polls. That’s my major problem with political polling, too many politicos
But it was 14-15 years from Peak Thatcher to the Conservatives losing power.
And 13 years from Peak Blair to Labour losing power.
Albeit that the last few years for each weren't pleasant.
Did many people make much of a bonus on betting on Lab at 5-1 or so overnight?
I had £3 on the Gallywhacker at 70 as a pure expect to lose punt. And lost ! Did we expect him to do better than this - 8k votes (10% of the entire electorate) seems to be more than was expected by many? Who were they?
I'm quite interested in whether the Tories could have swung this Red Wall (ish) seat had they run the kind of operation Nick has been talking about, or did they do that and just kept quiet about it? I it just that we don't have a blue version of OGH in the Tory-mole role?
Are we seeing a potential limit to the Red Wall move?
Quite surprised at the remarkable attempts at arse-cover by Jon from Sky News
I guess maybe Switzerland and Belgium would be the ideal results? But all 4 teams playing today are pretty good teams.
You weren’t around for the Lib Dem 50 ups of GE 2019 were you?
It also had the effect of bringing some of Cummings himself's criticisms from a few weeks before, which originally looked a bit like old news, back into focus. Very unfortunately for the Tories, it's reminded voters simultaneously of the sleaze theme, via the personal and professional contacts in the story, and the Covid restrictions hypocrisy theme, just as the narrative was turning towards Covid freedom day.
This is a mirror image of the various threats to the Tory vote from groups ranging from OK to loopy to fascist, which ATM the Tories have generally seen off.
A Labour party sharing its potential voters with LDs, Greens, SNP, and a post Galloway party is not an east place to be.
Having said that, as one who doesn't generally vote Labour in GEs (but does in local elections) in this case I would have voted Labour here, and wonder if a few moderate Tories felt the same.
And with that excellent summary I shall head off the board for the day. Have a lovely one wherever you are and whatever you are doing and for you personally DavidL, I hope your health is improving and that you will soon be back to full strength.
On our respective visits to Batley and Spen, my colleague Anoosh Chakelian and I remarked that Kim Leadbeater, the Labour candidate, was an unquestionable asset to the campaign. She appealed to would-be voters and her literature was markedly less Labour in branding than previous efforts by the party, and one wonders if it was this which proved key to the final result.
When approached on his preference, for instance, one resident remarked last week to a canvasser: “Yes, I’ll vote for Kim, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be supporting Labour!”
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/07/labour-held-batley-and-spen-against-odds-attracting-new-voters
It isn't.
The 'red wall' are traditional Labour constituencies that have politically and usually demographically (though that bit is usually ignored by the media) moved towards the Conservatives.
Batley has if anything, because of the growing Muslim population, been moving away from the Conservatives.
1. Brilliant Labour expectation management.
2. Superb Labour GOTV operation.
3. Both suggest a significant uptick in party management after Starmer's recent backroom reshuffle.
4. Galloway got a lot more than Muslim votes.
5. By rooting so openly for Galloway, the far-left has done itself a great deal of harm inside Labour.
6. Hubris is always the Tory Achilles heal. It hurt them big time here.
7. The LibDem vote share was down only 1.3%. Compare and contrast with the fall in the Labour vote share in Chesham & Amersham.
8. We need to stop talking about politics as normal. We don't know what normal is anymore.
9. Above all else, the significance of this is that Labour did not lose and the headlines and summer the result has therefore prevented.
I am very long in the tooth and have seen many rise and fall. I didn't bet on the LibDems in 2019. Jo Swinson was awful and the country was in a remarkably different worldview.
But on betting I am comfortably in the black, ta.
"There are plenty of troublespots in the world with people oppressed by a strong power.
That you exclusively talk about Palestine and condemn Israel with no interest in the rest is anti-semitism.
We are an anti-racist party with a proud history of internationalism. That means there is no place in the party for racism.
Anti-semitism is racism. If any of you express racist opinions again I will expel you."
Its 25 years since I was at University. I didn't get the Palestine thing then and I don't now. Yes the Israeli government under Netanyahu has been appalling. But its hardly unique in the world, yet to hear the PSC loons it is the only injustice and its all on Israel and Israel alone. I honestly don't think some of them think they are anti-semites (though many do and are quite happy about it). Labour tries to educate them - and I appreciate (from experience) that its easy for comments criticising their government to slip over the line. But the reponse isn't "thanks" its "lets persecute anyone who doesn't agree with our extreme view that Israel has no right to exist and should be removed from the map"
The red wall is seats that demographics should be Tory if they were anywhere else in the country, but was staying Labour for historical reasons. Where people have in the past decade been able to afford to buy their own home etc.
Which means it may be harder than people think for Labour to regain the red wall seats.
The red wall is not as some people imagine some angry impoverished wasteland of sadness and depression.
I'm just pleased I cashed out on the Tory for a nominal £1 win.
They need to sort this out or they risk serious global unrest.
That would be fun.
Prime Minister, think of PB and nominate Theresa May for the job of Secretary-General of NATO.
Bastani
Novara Media
Stats for lefties
Sarker
All wanted a Labour loss in #BatleyAndSpen
Remember that next time they’re pontificating about their left wing credentials
https://twitter.com/Paul1Singh/status/1410863200346808321?s=20