So another by-election betting market where punters grossly over-stated Tory chances – politicalbett

System

So another by-election betting market where punters grossly over-stated Tory chances – politicalbetting.com

Throughout this whole campaign the narrative was that LAB was going to get beaten and the story we would be cvoering this morning was whether Starmer would survive as LAB leader.

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson

Test

ydoethur

MikeSmithson said:

Test

And Trace.

Pulpstar

Well done all winners, big slice of humble pie for me - looks to me by eye like Kim picked up the Clackheaton Lib Dems from the local election and the Tories didn't net anything.
Kim Leadbeater clearly the best candidate for parliament of the lot.

Andy_JS

Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.

Cookie

Not often I get to blow my own trumpet before I get out of bed, but I tipped Con < 35% at 20-1 yesterday. I think this is my best ever bet on anything. Certainly my most successful tip. I only ventured a fiver, but I'm feeling pretty pleased with myself.
AND I've just heard that someone's coming to fix the shed roof today. Things are looking up.

OnlyLivingBoy

Great result for Labour, to have won even with Galloway coming a fairly close third. I felt in my gut that Hartlepool was peak Johnson. Good to see that confirmed. Well done to the Labour activists.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

And Trace.

Who's Trace? One of the girls counting?

state_go_away

Whilst I pay homage to your political punting Mike - you really are on a roll with hot tips , I think it is unfair to call Galloway an election flop. For an indie he has done well here and in the past as won as an indie- no mean feat.

Theuniondivvie

I regret to report that Mystic Bastani has been at it again.

https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1410835150204723200?s=21

https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1410836710070657024?s=21

Brom

Andy_JS said:

Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.

I’m thinking the appointment of Sajid Javid didn’t quite create the same positive buzz in Muslim communities as George Galloway did.

Big_G_NorthWales

Good morning

Congratulations to Kim Leadbeater for retaining Batley and Spen for labour. She seems a very pleasant and able person. It is a very strange constituency and of course she will be it's last mp as I understand it disappears in the boundary review

I did predict this yesterday and the unacceptable bile and hate spewed at her by Galloway's mob was totally unacceptable (as is any personal abuse) and I am certain many more than her majority of 323 voted for her in solidarity against Galloway

It goes without saying this is a good result for Keir Starmer and should keep him in post to fight the next GE

However, the thing that disturbs me most is that such a despicable character as Galloway can accumulate 8,264 (21.9) votes standing on his utterly divisive platform. I cannot see these voters returning to labour, or indeed for those who may have voted conservative previously, and this is labour biggest problem to resolve and I am not sure there is a resolution

If I was a conservative mp this morning I would be very angry at the perceived complacency that has taken over and of course with the narrowing of the polls, the mishandling of the Hancock resignation by Boris, and his recent mumblings, all no doubt played a part, though I doubt many voters watch PMQ's

I would just like to conclude by congratulating our own @NickPalmer for his very accurate and interesting reports from the labour camp, and award the 'dunces hat' to Jon Craig of Sky who got it completely wrong, and in the end had to eat humble pie

Morris_Dancer

As an aside, I was watching Youtube yesterday in the early evening and got an advert from the Labour candidate.

Foxy

Good tip Mike. I lated the Tories for £20 at about 1.2, tempted to cash out but let it ride.

Scott_xP

Andy_JS said:

Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.

Tory chair Amanda Milling tells @KayBurley that Matt Hancock came up on doorsteps in Batley and Spen
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1410843186692513793

Unlike the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson, who spent the campaign hiding... https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410843529568456706

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

And Trace.

Who's Trace? One of the girls counting?

That was an epic fail on two counts. Autocorrect changed ‘trice’ to ‘trace’ and then I came second anyway so what was an attempted awesome pun on ‘test and trace’ and ‘third’ ended up being more inept than a Tory by-election campaign.

ydoethur

Scott_xP said:

Andy_JS said:

Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.

Tory chair Amanda Milling tells @KayBurley that Matt Hancock came up on doorsteps in Batley and Spen
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1410843186692513793

*Raises eyebrows*

Unfortunate way of putting it...

Alistair

Wise after the event bigging myself up but Labour @7 was a foolishly long price.

noneoftheabove

Thanks to all who tipped another good winner, and indeed those who gave their reasons for thinking the contrary, it is the balance that allows readers of this site a clear advantage in our political betting.

Off topic, I see the government are briefing that freedom day, i.e. the end of all legal restrictions, is on track to go ahead, but will see some ongoing legal restrictions as extra precautions!

Roger

A much more significant result than the numbers. It raises the confidence levels of the opposition (Labour in particular) and following the last by-election a few weeks ago it raises questions about Johnson.

For instance is he the Messiah or just a disgusting amoral lying freeloader with no judgement?

Scott_xP

Excl: Johnson orders Javid to press ahead with “huge” NHS reorganisation despite new health secretary’s plea for a delay because plans are incomplete and will become too controversial

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9ef13606-dab6-11eb-b92f-5fe539a30c29?shareToken=e93050d0b14eb8b872e5cb1a0c334fa9

DecrepiterJohnL

Betfair does not seem in any great hurry to settle the market.

MarqueeMark

The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.

Theuniondivvie

George kicking the Trumpian arse out of it. Local landscaping companies should be on alert.

https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1410845047734558723?s=21

DecrepiterJohnL

Scott_xP said:

Andy_JS said:

Hancock may have lost this one for the Tories.

Tory chair Amanda Milling tells @KayBurley that Matt Hancock came up on doorsteps in Batley and Spen
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1410843186692513793

Unlike the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson, who spent the campaign hiding... https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410843529568456706

Perhaps some obliging journalist might investigate precisely what did constitute the Tories' campaign.

Fishing

Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

RochdalePioneers

Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

another_richard

A very nice winner on overall result and Conservative vote share.

And nice to be proved right that the Heavy Wollens were not going to vote Conservative.

And its lol bizarre that some PBers are trying to claim this as a huge victory for Labour and defeat for Boris.

noneoftheabove

MarqueeMark said:

The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.

I think you may be severely overestimating his potential replacements!

state_go_away

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Betfair does not seem in any great hurry to settle the market.

Ladbrokes have paid my galloway over 10% winnings.

Wonder which seat gallloway will stand at the next election? Has to be one with a big muslim population - somewhere in Brum? he likes to mover around!

Philip_Thompson

This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.

Governments don't win by-elections.

Peter_the_Punter

Well done, Mike.

Your modest acknowledment of your achievement is noted with thanks.

Philip_Thompson

The biggest shame today is that someone as ghastly as Galloway can win as many as 8k votes.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

And Trace.

Who's Trace? One of the girls counting?

That was an epic fail on two counts. Autocorrect changed ‘trice’ to ‘trace’ and then I came second anyway so what was an attempted awesome pun on ‘test and trace’ and ‘third’ ended up being more inept than a Tory by-election campaign.

As GG would admit; you can't win 'em all! Your puns do lighten the mood.

Theuniondivvie

Glad that Kim Leadbeater won but this made me laugh.

https://twitter.com/hywelroberts12/status/1410830490647633922?s=21

nico679

Given the Tory enabler Galloway turned up to help them this is a poor result for them. A great night for a wonderful Labour candidate.

isam

Mucking about on Betfair after the polls closed cost me about £300 🙈 Should have just gone to bed

Looks like the poll, and @NickPalmer, vastly undercooked the GG vote.

another_richard

The Conservative vote has been very stable in Batley for a generation:

1997 36.4%
2001 36.7%
2005 31.1%
2010 33.0%
2015 31.2%
2017 38.8%
2019 36.0%
2021 34.4%

Why people were betting on over 40% is beyond me.

state_go_away

RochdalePioneers said:

Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.

Peter_the_Punter

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Betfair does not seem in any great hurry to settle the market.

I haven't used them since the US Election fiasco. They are rogues.

Roger

Foxy said:

Good tip Mike. I lated the Tories for £20 at about 1.2, tempted to cash out but let it ride.

'We're in the money, come on, my honey
Let's spend it, lend it, send it rolling along............'

eek

Fishing said:

Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

The truthful answer is we don't know.

The Asian vote (Indian and Pakistani) is supposedly equally split and makes up that 20% so GG can't have been getting his votes from there.

I think anyone who reads anything into this election is actually asking for trouble, the simple answer is we don't know whose votes GG stole.

kinabalu

A new dawn has broken has it not. ✊☺

kinabalu

another_richard said:

A very nice winner on overall result and Conservative vote share.

And nice to be proved right that the Heavy Wollens were not going to vote Conservative.

And its lol bizarre that some PBers are trying to claim this as a huge victory for Labour and defeat for Boris.

Don't be churlish.

Fishing

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.

With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.

OldKingCole

kinabalu said:

A new dawn has broken has it not. ✊☺

Still can't see the Promised Land, though.

logical_song

MarqueeMark said:

The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.

Another question - Boris has just lost two by-elections within a fortnight where the Tories were massive favourites, should he consider his position?

isam

How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

IshmaelZ

HARTLEPOOL = PEAK BORIS. TOLD YOU SO.

another_richard

kinabalu said:

another_richard said:

A very nice winner on overall result and Conservative vote share.

And nice to be proved right that the Heavy Wollens were not going to vote Conservative.

And its lol bizarre that some PBers are trying to claim this as a huge victory for Labour and defeat for Boris.

Don't be churlish.

About what ???

Is reality too painful for you ?

state_go_away

Fishing said:

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.

With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.

No , Galloway masks how bad this was for the tories . Only a week or so before Hancock the tories were in a comfortable lead here and nationally . Hancock definitely lost this

MarqueeMark

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.

Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their Covid caution. If we had unlocked on the 21st, the Conservatives would have won. The Hancock story would have had far less relevance if it is was announced after we had opened up.

But this Government needs a significant Cabinet shake up, to put in place those Ministers who will face the voters in 2023/4 in their post. Or move on any duds.

Theuniondivvie

logical_song said:

MarqueeMark said:

The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.

Another question - Boris has just lost two by-elections within a fortnight where the Tories were massive favourites, should he consider his position?

Boris (& PB Tories) consider the matter closed.

Philip_Thompson

I wonder whether Galloway took the Heavy Woolens voters?

8k either for both does seem a remarkable coincidence.

Scott_xP

The story from last night is one of Conservative failure not Labour success. It will suit absolutely no one to say that, so that will be forgotten.
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1410849910266662914

noneoftheabove

isam said:

How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

I have just done the maths and the govt can continue to put in place unelected bureaucrats and spads to ignore parliament. Hope that helps.

Scott_xP

Seems very much like George Galloway’s campaign actually saved Labour’s skin in Batley and Spen: he appears to have taken votes off both parties, with Tories down in both % and raw terms and only Galloway up https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1410850624804098052/photo/1

kinabalu

Fishing said:

Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

But Galloway made this tough. His presence stacked the deck against Labour and they still won. It's a genuinely very good result. It bodes well for longer term GE prospects. There are not - thankfully - 650 Galloways. Kim a great candidate choice of course. Surely made a difference.

Gallowgate

state_go_away said:

Fishing said:

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.

With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.

No , Galloway masks how bad this was for the tories . Only a week or so before Hancock the tories were in a comfortable lead here and nationally . Hancock definitely lost this

Can’t really say that with any degree of confidence. We just don’t know.

Mexicanpete

MarqueeMark said:

The question this morning is still whether Starmer will - and should - survive as Labour leader.

The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.

Not necessarily. Richard Burgon says hello.

another_richard

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.

It was very likely enough though when its only a question of a few hundred votes many factors could be blamed.

It is another warning about the government's complacent lethargy - whether they act upon it is a different matter.

LostPassword

Fishing said:

Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.

And yet, it's a very low floor.

It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.

Taz

I echo the praise for Nick Palmer. Excellent comments and not tribal at all. Just factual.

Mexicanpete

isam said:

How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

Johnson on a mere 78 majority?

kinabalu

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Betfair does not seem in any great hurry to settle the market.

George is taking it to the Supreme Court so it could be a long wait. He says it was stolen from him by the radical Labour council.

Andy_JS

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

Johnson on a mere 78 majority?

Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.

Roger

another_richard said:

A very nice winner on overall result and Conservative vote share.

And nice to be proved right that the Heavy Wollens were not going to vote Conservative.

And its lol bizarre that some PBers are trying to claim this as a huge victory for Labour and defeat for Boris.

Perhaps because it was? It gives Labour momentum and it shows Tories that they can't assume that Johnson's Brexit morons are in the bag

state_go_away

Gallowgate said:

state_go_away said:

Fishing said:

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.

With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.

No , Galloway masks how bad this was for the tories . Only a week or so before Hancock the tories were in a comfortable lead here and nationally . Hancock definitely lost this

Can’t really say that with any degree of confidence. We just don’t know.

well maybe but nobody will ever make a bet if you need 100% confidence and evidence. Sometimes you just have to say what seems to to the case - pretty obvious to me that the narrowing of the polls after Hancock nationally had to mirror what happened in Batley. Terribel result for the tory leadership

CarlottaVance

In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1410848867151663112?s=20

Philip_Thompson

kinabalu said:

Fishing said:

Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

But Galloway made this tough. His presence stacked the deck against Labour and they still won. It's a genuinely very good result. It bodes well for longer term GE prospects. There are not - thankfully - 650 Galloways. Kim a great candidate choice of course. Surely made a difference.

His presence may have helped Labour by giving an anti-Starmer pro-Brexit voice for people to go to other than the Tories. Who knows, its impossible to second guess. 🤷‍♂️

murali_s

Mike Smithson = tipster of the year 2021. Simples!

isam

…

Scott_xP said:

Seems very much like George Galloway’s campaign actually saved Labour’s skin in Batley and Spen: he appears to have taken votes off both parties, with Tories down in both % and raw terms and only Galloway up https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1410850624804098052/photo/1

What if a GG type stood in every constituency where there is a 20% Islamic population?

Fishing

Philip_Thompson said:

The biggest shame today is that someone as ghastly as Galloway can win as many as 8k votes.

They aren't real votes - only protest votes in a by-election.

Scott_xP

Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price this morning

Andy_JS

another_richard said:

The Conservative vote has been very stable in Batley for a generation:

1997 36.4%
2001 36.7%
2005 31.1%
2010 33.0%
2015 31.2%
2017 38.8%
2019 36.0%
2021 34.4%

Why people were betting on over 40% is beyond me.

People thought they'd pick up most of the 12% for the Heavy Woollens.

isam

Scott_xP said:

The story from last night is one of Conservative failure not Labour success. It will suit absolutely no one to say that, so that will be forgotten.
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1410849910266662914

The opposition holding a seat by the skin of their teeth in a by election really doesnt feel like it should be framed like that

rottenborough

Morning all,

My TSE levels of modesty stop me from mentioning that I was on Labour at 3.95

Scott_xP

This will largely be missed in all the excitement, but it’s in Dominic Raab’s constituency.
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1410831808455925760

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1410734008539836419

murali_s

LostPassword said:

Fishing said:

Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.

And yet, it's a very low floor.

It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.

We have to be careful in using swings in a by-election to project forward to a general election.

Are we seriously thinking that the swing *against* the Tories in C&A will be replicated in GE 2024?

Mexicanpete

Philip_Thompson said:

This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.

Governments don't win by-elections.

They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.

Philip_Thompson

Andy_JS said:

another_richard said:

The Conservative vote has been very stable in Batley for a generation:

1997 36.4%
2001 36.7%
2005 31.1%
2010 33.0%
2015 31.2%
2017 38.8%
2019 36.0%
2021 34.4%

Why people were betting on over 40% is beyond me.

People thought they'd pick up most of the 12% for the Heavy Woollens.

Galloway took it instead seems to be the only logical explanation.

another_richard

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder whether Galloway took the Heavy Woolens voters?

8k either for both does seem a remarkable coincidence.

He would have got a significant number I suspect - they're anti-Labour and anti-Conservative.

Mexicanpete

Andy_JS said:

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

Johnson on a mere 78 majority?

Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.

Would that be, went up to 82, then back to 80 and now 78?

Scott_xP

isam said:

The opposition holding a seat by the skin of their teeth in a by election really doesnt feel like it should be framed like that

Odds on favourites lose second in a row should be framed exactly like that

partypoliticalorphan

Thank you Mike and the whole PB community. It's at times like this that this site really comes into its own. I'm sure that, taken as a whole, PBers come out ahead of the bookies or other punters.

What a pity we have many fewer by-elections these days on which the collective wisdom of this site can be brought to bear for betting success.

state_go_away

Fishing said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The biggest shame today is that someone as ghastly as Galloway can win as many as 8k votes.

They aren't real votes - only protest votes in a by-election.

and tbh there needed to be a protest candidate given the utter hypocrisy we have seen with the tories over covid with the Hancock affair.Galloway does have a muslim following but he would have picked up tory votes as well who were disgusted with the last two weeks of Johnson and Hancock. I would have voted for him given the utter contempt that has been shown to the public

Philip_Thompson

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.

Governments don't win by-elections.

They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.

If the Tories put up Galloway, I'd support the Liberal Democrats.

TheScreamingEagles

I did tell you all that the Heavy Woollen Indies weren't like Brexit Party voters and wouldn't switch over to the Tories a la Hartlepool.

I bet some of them switched to Galloway, they are the permanent awkward squad.

Philip_Thompson

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

Johnson on a mere 78 majority?

Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.

Would that be, went up to 82, then back to 80 and now 78?

No this doesn't change the arithmetic. This seat is a Labour hold, it was Labour and is still Labour so no change.

80 -> 82 (Hartlepool) -> 80 (C&A) -> 80 (B&S)

RochdalePioneers

Fishing said:

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Basic by-election tip. If you want to take the seat from the incumbent party you need to be very visible. Had CCHQ let whoever their candidate was out of hiding he could have won - 300 votes isn't a lot.

Hancock and Johnson lost this seat by their covid hypocrisy.

With a narrow defeat you can blame virtually anything for losing it.

Absolutely. A host of factors could have driven it. When its a tight race though you go and ask for every vote. The Tories didn't seem to have bothered much, certainly the candidate didn't. To lose by such a tight margin having failed to go out and ask people to vote for you seems arrogant in the extreme.

rottenborough

LostPassword said:

Fishing said:

Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.

And yet, it's a very low floor.

It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.

Can we actually read anything into this weird and terrible by-election?

tlg86

Lord Hayward on Sky News now.

Mexicanpete

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

Johnson on a mere 78 majority?

Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.

Would that be, went up to 82, then back to 80 and now 78?

No this doesn't change the arithmetic. This seat is a Labour hold, it was Labour and is still Labour so no change.

80 -> 82 (Hartlepool) -> 80 (C&A) -> 80 (B&S)

My mistake I had forgotten this was a Labour hold. Just waiting for Maidenhead...

rottenborough

CarlottaVance said:

In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1410848867151663112?s=20

Payne thinks Johnson does that kind of reflective thinking?

Hmm. It's a theory I suppose.

isam

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

How does this result affect the parliamentary arithmetic?

Johnson on a mere 78 majority?

Still 80 I think because he gained Hartlepool and lost Chesham.

Would that be, went up to 82, then back to 80 and now 78?

Why would he have lost any of his majority here?

squareroot2

rottenborough said:

LostPassword said:

Fishing said:

Iirc B&S is about 20% Muslim - interesting that that is about Galloway's share. I wonder how many non-Muslims he got?

So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.

I can understand the relief being felt that a floor on Labour's collapse has been found. That's objectively better than if they'd lost and continued to be in freefall.

And yet, it's a very low floor.

It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.

Can we actually read anything into this weird and terrible by-election?

Well we know OGH isn't fond of Boris...

Foxy

Roger said:

Foxy said:

Good tip Mike. I lated the Tories for £20 at about 1.2, tempted to cash out but let it ride.

'We're in the money, come on, my honey
Let's spend it, lend it, send it rolling along............'

Well, off to the Isle of Wight next week, so shall spend my winnings on crab pasties and rock.

Weather forecast not too bad.

RochdalePioneers

CarlottaVance said:

In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1410848867151663112?s=20

He WAS sacked immediately! The narrative that Liar said "case closed" and did nothing and that Mancock decided his own position was untenable is one put out by bitter losers.

another_richard

Andy_JS said:

another_richard said:

The Conservative vote has been very stable in Batley for a generation:

1997 36.4%
2001 36.7%
2005 31.1%
2010 33.0%
2015 31.2%
2017 38.8%
2019 36.0%
2021 34.4%

Why people were betting on over 40% is beyond me.

People thought they'd pick up most of the 12% for the Heavy Woollens.

If the Heavy Wollens were going to vote Conservative they would have done so in 2019.

I don't think the Conservatives have reached 40% in any election in this constituency, local or general, since 1992.

Mexicanpete

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

This is the sort of result I expected for Hartlepool.

Governments don't win by-elections.

They could if the Tories put Gorgeous up as alternative to Labour at every Lab/Con by election between now and the GE.

If the Tories put up Galloway, I'd support the Liberal Democrats.

No, no. Galloway as a third way. Tories, Labour and Galloway.

Theuniondivvie

isam said:

…

Scott_xP said:

Seems very much like George Galloway’s campaign actually saved Labour’s skin in Batley and Spen: he appears to have taken votes off both parties, with Tories down in both % and raw terms and only Galloway up https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1410850624804098052/photo/1

What if a GG type stood in every constituency where there is a 20% Islamic population?

There’s only one GG thankfully.