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So another by-election betting market where punters grossly over-stated Tory chances – politicalbett

Throughout this whole campaign the narrative was that LAB was going to get beaten and the story we would be cvoering this morning was whether Starmer would survive as LAB leader.
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Kim Leadbeater clearly the best candidate for parliament of the lot.
AND I've just heard that someone's coming to fix the shed roof today. Things are looking up.
https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1410835150204723200?s=21
https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1410836710070657024?s=21
Congratulations to Kim Leadbeater for retaining Batley and Spen for labour. She seems a very pleasant and able person. It is a very strange constituency and of course she will be it's last mp as I understand it disappears in the boundary review
I did predict this yesterday and the unacceptable bile and hate spewed at her by Galloway's mob was totally unacceptable (as is any personal abuse) and I am certain many more than her majority of 323 voted for her in solidarity against Galloway
It goes without saying this is a good result for Keir Starmer and should keep him in post to fight the next GE
However, the thing that disturbs me most is that such a despicable character as Galloway can accumulate 8,264 (21.9) votes standing on his utterly divisive platform. I cannot see these voters returning to labour, or indeed for those who may have voted conservative previously, and this is labour biggest problem to resolve and I am not sure there is a resolution
If I was a conservative mp this morning I would be very angry at the perceived complacency that has taken over and of course with the narrowing of the polls, the mishandling of the Hancock resignation by Boris, and his recent mumblings, all no doubt played a part, though I doubt many voters watch PMQ's
I would just like to conclude by congratulating our own @NickPalmer for his very accurate and interesting reports from the labour camp, and award the 'dunces hat' to Jon Craig of Sky who got it completely wrong, and in the end had to eat humble pie
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1410843186692513793
Unlike the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson, who spent the campaign hiding... https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410843529568456706
Unfortunate way of putting it...
Off topic, I see the government are briefing that freedom day, i.e. the end of all legal restrictions, is on track to go ahead, but will see some ongoing legal restrictions as extra precautions!
For instance is he the Messiah or just a disgusting amoral lying freeloader with no judgement?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9ef13606-dab6-11eb-b92f-5fe539a30c29?shareToken=e93050d0b14eb8b872e5cb1a0c334fa9
The longer that question goes unanswered, the better for the Tories.
https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1410845047734558723?s=21
So Starmer is probably safe for now - though losing an election is always bad tactically, from that point of view it could be a good result for the Conservatives strategically. It is a measure of how badly he is doing that we're surprised that the Opposition have hung on in a fairly safe seat during the mid-term of a fourth-term government.
And nice to be proved right that the Heavy Wollens were not going to vote Conservative.
And its lol bizarre that some PBers are trying to claim this as a huge victory for Labour and defeat for Boris.
Wonder which seat gallloway will stand at the next election? Has to be one with a big muslim population - somewhere in Brum? he likes to mover around!
Governments don't win by-elections.
Your modest acknowledment of your achievement is noted with thanks.
https://twitter.com/hywelroberts12/status/1410830490647633922?s=21
Looks like the poll, and @NickPalmer, vastly undercooked the GG vote.
1997 36.4%
2001 36.7%
2005 31.1%
2010 33.0%
2015 31.2%
2017 38.8%
2019 36.0%
2021 34.4%
Why people were betting on over 40% is beyond me.
'We're in the money, come on, my honey
Let's spend it, lend it, send it rolling along............'
The Asian vote (Indian and Pakistani) is supposedly equally split and makes up that 20% so GG can't have been getting his votes from there.
I think anyone who reads anything into this election is actually asking for trouble, the simple answer is we don't know whose votes GG stole.
Is reality too painful for you ?
But this Government needs a significant Cabinet shake up, to put in place those Ministers who will face the voters in 2023/4 in their post. Or move on any duds.
8k either for both does seem a remarkable coincidence.
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1410849910266662914
It is another warning about the government's complacent lethargy - whether they act upon it is a different matter.
And yet, it's a very low floor.
It's a swing to the government. That still points to an increased majority at the next election for Johnson.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1410848867151663112?s=20
My TSE levels of modesty stop me from mentioning that I was on Labour at 3.95
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1410831808455925760
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1410734008539836419
Are we seriously thinking that the swing *against* the Tories in C&A will be replicated in GE 2024?
What a pity we have many fewer by-elections these days on which the collective wisdom of this site can be brought to bear for betting success.
I bet some of them switched to Galloway, they are the permanent awkward squad.
80 -> 82 (Hartlepool) -> 80 (C&A) -> 80 (B&S)
Hmm. It's a theory I suppose.
Weather forecast not too bad.
I don't think the Conservatives have reached 40% in any election in this constituency, local or general, since 1992.