The big issue in Chesham and Amersham wasn’t HS2 – but Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

DecrepiterJohnL said:

carnforth said:

Israel said negotiating COVID vaccine swap deal with UK

https://timesofisrael.com/israel-said-negotiating-covid-vaccine-swap-deal-with-uk/

This is the deal Israel failed to get past the Palestinians. Israel has a lot of Pfizer that is due to expire by the end of the month, so wants to swap it for longer-dated Pfizer. The deal is only a good one for us if we can rustle up sufficient willing arms in the next couple of weeks.

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

Malmesbury said:

UK R

Malmesbury - I know I keep going on about this - but why is hospital admissions R going up when hospital admissions look fairly flat at the moment?

Remember that this is a lagging indicator - "driving while looking in the rear view mirror"

Last date is 25th

Is you look at the raw numbers chart, you can see what happens -

Mexicanpete said:

MikeSmithson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Savanta Comres just now

A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.

Of those surveyed, 35% of voters think Keir Starmer should quit as Labour leader, compared to 28% who think he should stay on.

The survey, conducted by Savanta for Left Foot Forward consisted of 2,191 voters.

Voters of all age groups, except those aged between 25-34, say Starmer should go if Labour were to lose the by-election, though 37% answered ‘Don’t Know’. The party has held the seat for nearly a quarter of a century.

Calls for Starmer to go were highest in the North-East of the country, with 47% saying the Labour leader should resign if he loses the by-election today.

Support for Starmer to remain however, was highest in the North-West, with 34% of those asked saying he should stay on as leader even if he loses the crucial by-election.

Among those who voted Labour in 2019, 33% believe Starmer should resign if he loses compared to 42% who think he should stay. Of those who had voted Conservative, 46% believe Starmer should quit.

It comes as talk of a leadership challenge grows as voters in Batley and Spen go to the polls.

You seem to be very keen to see the back of Starmer. Any favourites for PM in waiting? RLB, Richard Burgon, and don't forget if the Conservatives lose their lustre that is the sort of moron we could be lumbered with...but of course Johnson was looking gorgeous in Sunderland today.

Stamrer slaughtered BoJo at PMQs yesterday.

He did. Even BJO was impressed.

PB Tories seem to be as desperate to see the back of Starmer as do Corbynistas. I guess both PB Tories and Corbynistas have a similar aim, namely to return Conservative Prime Minister after Conservative Prime Minister

eek said:

Fishing said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

StuartDickson said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

Boris has found a centre ground that gives him red wall seats at the cost of a few former Tory seats that turn Lib Dem / Labour.

I suspect your typical Tory won't care unless they are the representative of one of those no longer safe seats (see for instance Steve Baker in High Wycombe).

The fundamental problem is that it's difficult to ride two horses at the same time. There's only so much money to go around, and while few things are zero sum, it's still the case that some Southern taxpayers will feel cross that "their" money is being spent up North.

The same arguments rage in Germany, where the Eastern Lander have progressed economically (and are now wealthier than most regions in the UK), but the burden for regeneration has fallen on the West.

So, the former DDR is now wealthier than most of the UK. According to Brexiteers the EU is a basket case and all things Yookay are an unmitigated triumph.

The former DDR is, vast parts of other parts of europe. While the DDR has done wonders economically, Italy and Greece have gone backwards since 2001.

That's not quite true.

Greece GDP per capita
2001 - $12,500
2019 - $19,500

Italy
2001 - $20,400
2019 - $33,200

Economically illiterate comparison as those are nominal numbers.

It get's interesting when you look at the tricks being pulled here

Firstly exchange rates $1=0.90€ in 2001, $1=1.12€ in 2019

so
Greece
2001 - €13888
2019 - €17410

Italy
2001 - €22666
2019 - €29642

Then look at inflation - for which let's use the Italy rate which says €100 in 2001 is €134.74 in 2019 https://www.inflationtool.com/euro-italy?amount=100&year1=2001&year2=2019

which gives me at 2019 prices

Greece
2001 - €18713
2019 - €17410

Italy

2001 - €30541
2019 - €29642

So I think all you've shown there is that there are lies, damn lies and statistics. And anecdotally my Euro figures feel correct...

Nigel_Foremain said:

Malmesbury said:

YBarddCwsc said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Savanta Comres just now

A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.

[snip]

Time to recall Nabavi's Rule of Resignation Polling: Any opinion poll which asks if politician X should resign will always produce a plurality in favour of X resigning - even if X is a made-up name.

Are you saying Keir Starmer is a fictional character?

Which one?

Charles Pooter in The Diary of a Nobody

Perhaps not, Pooter is a bit too lively

Enoch Soames. A character who had so little effect in the story "Enoch Soames" by Max Beerbohm, that when he appears 100 years in the future, the only reference to himself in the British Library is as a fictional character in the story "Enoch Soames" by his friend Max Beerbohm....

Thanks for that reference. I hadn't come across Enoch Soames before, so might read the book. I have met Nicholas Soames, who, of course, far from dull or unmemorable.

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

eek said:

Fishing said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

StuartDickson said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

Boris has found a centre ground that gives him red wall seats at the cost of a few former Tory seats that turn Lib Dem / Labour.

I suspect your typical Tory won't care unless they are the representative of one of those no longer safe seats (see for instance Steve Baker in High Wycombe).

The fundamental problem is that it's difficult to ride two horses at the same time. There's only so much money to go around, and while few things are zero sum, it's still the case that some Southern taxpayers will feel cross that "their" money is being spent up North.

The same arguments rage in Germany, where the Eastern Lander have progressed economically (and are now wealthier than most regions in the UK), but the burden for regeneration has fallen on the West.

So, the former DDR is now wealthier than most of the UK. According to Brexiteers the EU is a basket case and all things Yookay are an unmitigated triumph.

The former DDR is, vast parts of other parts of europe. While the DDR has done wonders economically, Italy and Greece have gone backwards since 2001.

That's not quite true.

Greece GDP per capita
2001 - $12,500
2019 - $19,500

Italy
2001 - $20,400
2019 - $33,200

Economically illiterate comparison as those are nominal numbers.

It get's interesting when you look at the tricks being pulled here

Firstly exchange rates $1=0.90€ in 2001, $1=1.12€ in 2019

so
Greece
2001 - €13888
2019 - €17410

Italy
2001 - €22666
2019 - €29642

Then look at inflation - for which let's use the Italy rate which says €100 in 2001 is €134.74 in 2019 https://www.inflationtool.com/euro-italy?amount=100&year1=2001&year2=2019

which gives me at 2019 prices

Greece
2001 - €18713
2019 - €17410

Italy

2001 - €30541
2019 - €29642

So I think all you've shown there is that there are lies, damn lies and statistics. And anecdotally my Euro figures feel correct...

And finally given that you were using WorldBank data let's use their own GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) - Italy so that we can see how things play out https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?end=2020&locations=IT&start=2001



2001 - $37053
2019 - $36034
2020 - $32993 (but we know 2020 is bad for other reasons).

Fair enough.

There are many different ways to cut the cake, and I went to the first ones that Google searched for. Which, as you say, may have been misleading.

One of the more interesting pieces of analysis I've seen is "GDP per person of working age".

algarkirk said:

The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.

Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.

Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.

NickPalmer said:

algarkirk said:

The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.

Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.

Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.

Potentially there will be a Maidenhead by-election if the rumour that Theresa May will be appointed in NATO prove correct. The starting position is very like C&A:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000803

FrancisUrquhart said:

NickPalmer said:

Big final Labour push on the national phone banks at the moment to get the last of the vote out. Everyone's commented on the Tory stealth campaign, which for all I know may be working well, but it's worth saying now that there's been a well-organised, determined Labour push from the start which the "unhappy unnamed campaigners" quoted by journalists have rather helpfully obscured.

Whether it will be enough I somewhat doubt but morale seems surprisingly good. We'll know in, uh, 12 hours or so.

Decoded....Labour easy win.

NickPalmer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NickPalmer said:

Big final Labour push on the national phone banks at the moment to get the last of the vote out. Everyone's commented on the Tory stealth campaign, which for all I know may be working well, but it's worth saying now that there's been a well-organised, determined Labour push from the start which the "unhappy unnamed campaigners" quoted by journalists have rather helpfully obscured.

Whether it will be enough I somewhat doubt but morale seems surprisingly good. We'll know in, uh, 12 hours or so.

Decoded....Labour easy win.

You're too cynical! Full disclosure: I have £200 at 1-4 on Labour beating Galloway. I have £0 on winning outright.

isam said:

The write up is critical of Labour, but this is surely a good poll for them



https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1410632601233133570?s=21

contrarian said:

Alistair said:

Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.

I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.

They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.

That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.

Indeed. And there are many Trumpers who would opine that 'its about freakin' time....'

NickPalmer said:

Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.

YBarddCwsc said:

Stereodog said:

YBarddCwsc said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Savanta Comres just now

A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.

[snip]

Time to recall Nabavi's Rule of Resignation Polling: Any opinion poll which asks if politician X should resign will always produce a plurality in favour of X resigning - even if X is a made-up name.

Are you saying Keir Starmer is a fictional character?

Which one?

Charles Pooter in The Diary of a Nobody

Perhaps not, Pooter is a bit too lively

I think Boris most resembles the monkey White King from Georgi Markov's "The Right Honourable Chimpanzee". I'm thinking of the ability to get by in the Commons with historical quotations from previous Prime Ministers and the odd repeated slogan. On a serious note it's one of the funniest political novels I've ever read.

Yes, I think Boris is a character from fiction.

But in the books with pictures for very, very young children.

---

Boris is Prime Minister. He has a very busy day.

This morning, Boris is at the big car factory. He gets to drive the big car and give us all the thumbs up.

Now Boris is using his big drill to build back better.

It's back to London for Boris. It's time for Prime Minister's questions.

"Bump, thump, bump", went Boris' heart with excitement. "Bump, thump, bump".

"Crikey", thought Boris, as a swotty little man asked him a hard question.

solarflare said:

On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.

What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.

But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.

It's a bit curious to me.

solarflare said:

.On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.

What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.

But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.

It's a bit curious to me.

Andy_JS said:

NickPalmer said:

Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.

It's good that the days of 25% turnouts at by-elections seems to be over.

Alistair said:

solarflare said:

.On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.

What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.

But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.

It's a bit curious to me.

If think the extra handful of days was important. At the point where the extension was announced hospital numbers were tracking case rises quite closely, not at the same ratio as autumn but very much a mechanical "case tick up x, hospitalisation tick up y"

Starting almost immediatly after the announcement hospital number rises became far more shallow, lengthening the ratio between cases and hospitalisations.

contrarian said:

Alistair said:

Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.

I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.

They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.

That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.

Indeed. And there are many Trumpers who would opine that 'its about freakin' time....'

NickPalmer said:

Then again, one voter just said the queue was so long she had to wait 2 hours! Dubious.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NickPalmer said:

Then again, one voter just said the queue was so long she had to wait 2 hours! Dubious.

At the polling station?

Alistair said:

solarflare said:

.On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.

What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.

But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.

It's a bit curious to me.

If think the extra handful of days was important. At the point where the extension was announced hospital numbers were tracking case rises quite closely, not at the same ratio as autumn but very much a mechanical "case tick up x, hospitalisation tick up y"

Starting almost immediatly after the announcement hospital number rises became far more shallow, lengthening the ratio between cases and hospitalisations.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

NickPalmer said:

Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.

Fingers crossed. I reckon we will hold this. But on the basis of no real information.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stack Overflow is offline for maintenance

MattW said:

On Topic.

An assertion by LD activists turned into a fact? Is there any independent evidence on this?

DDR vs UK Regions

Where is this claim from?
I heard an interesting claim about varied wealth amongst regions in countries, but that was in the Commons' Environment Committee about the G7.

What I would love to see is numbers in the UK excluding unearned increase in property values.

StuartDickson said:

Gardenwalker said:

StuartDickson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

beentheredonethat said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Breaking

Nissan confirm they are to build a 1 billion pound car battery factory in Sunderland

Absolutely coincidental that this announced on by Election Day

I hadn't thought about that but if so good politics

The BBC also says that
'The government is contributing to the cost of the expansion, but a precise figure has not been disclosed.'

Ion other words, a massive handout. Some might call it a bribe.

I am sorry but investing in the future green economy is essential and is actively promoted by all governments

All governments recently signed a “level playing field” treaty, but one of the signatories was crossing their fingers behind their back. Guess which one.

The EU are over and the UK will decide on investments and jobs

Investment decisions will surely be based on access to markets into which to sell, so the EU is not over. It's just that the relationship and dependency is different.

Big G’s statement that “the EU is over” neatly illustrates why the Conservative Party is not fit for purpose. Even moderates like Big G have now embraced the culture war. The past is alterable. The past never has been altered. Yookania is at war with Redpassportland. Yookania has always been at war with Redpassportland.

I don’t think that’s quite what Big G meant, rather than the EU is over as a key influence on domestic policy.

But your general point is correct.

Nevertheless, the Brexity culture warriors know their cause is both potent and fragile; hence the government’s bung to the totemic Nissan.

In what way is Brexit “fragile”? I’ve lost count of the number of formerly strident Remainers who have reconciled themselves to the new status quo, not least the entire Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party.

Brexit is now firmly embedded in BritNat mythology. England is stuck with it for the foreseeable. The other three have an escape route, although the Welsh path to victory looks long.

In what way is a Japanese car company “totemic”? Is it just because they’re not European?

Floater said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

NickPalmer said:

Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.

Fingers crossed. I reckon we will hold this. But on the basis of no real information.

Owen Jones, Novarra and that crowd will be upset if you do.......

MarqueeMark said:

Labour just losing is probably good enough to give Starmer the summer at least.

Would suit the Tories just fine....

Gardenwalker said:

MarqueeMark said:

Labour just losing is probably good enough to give Starmer the summer at least.

Would suit the Tories just fine....

Good to hear the Tory speaking notes in advance of 5am.

kinabalu said:

NickPalmer said:

Well, we're trying hard - the volunteers on the ground are now doing their FIFTH knockup (for those not in on the first 4 rounds).

Worth it because if we somehow nick this one it'll change the narrative and the mood. Just as we've had peak Johnson we'll have had trough Starmer.

Gardenwalker said:

All things being equal, it’s going to be hard for Labour to retain this seat.

They need Tory voters to sit on their hands.

Still predicting a Tory win by 2-4 points.

Alistair said:

Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.

I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.

They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.

That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

kinabalu said:

NickPalmer said:

Well, we're trying hard - the volunteers on the ground are now doing their FIFTH knockup (for those not in on the first 4 rounds).

Worth it because if we somehow nick this one it'll change the narrative and the mood. Just as we've had peak Johnson we'll have had trough Starmer.

If he leaves a trough he will be a highly unusual politician

Feeding walruses leave troughs in the sea floor ... does that count?

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

kinabalu said:

NickPalmer said:

Well, we're trying hard - the volunteers on the ground are now doing their FIFTH knockup (for those not in on the first 4 rounds).

Worth it because if we somehow nick this one it'll change the narrative and the mood. Just as we've had peak Johnson we'll have had trough Starmer.

If he leaves a trough he will be a highly unusual politician

Feeding walruses leave troughs in the sea floor ... does that count?

The mere suggestion of ‘trough’ and ‘politician’s name’ juxtaposed is a - courageous one.

Tusk, tusk.

solarflare said:

On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.

What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.

But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.

It's a bit curious to me.