Steve Baker MP is right about the exemption for quarantine exemptions UEFA officials – politicalbett
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Well I think we reach a moment of truth here, actually.Pulpstar said:
The only way out long term is through herd immunity. Do you propose the death of the night time economy forever ?Chris said:
The flaw is simply this.rcs1000 said:
I didn't say that the hospitalisation rate was inversely related, I said the number is hospital was growing dramatically slower.Chris said:
You think the probability of a particular COVID-19 case ending in hospitalisation is somehow inversely proportional to the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country?rcs1000 said:
Look, you shouldn't do yourself down. You're a valuable member of the community, and you should have more confidence in your intellectual abilities.Chris said:
Look.RobD said:
But the absolute numbers are much better, suggesting that the vaccines are successfully reducing the chance of someone dying from it. Isn't that the link that was supposed to be broken?Chris said:
Where on earth did you get such a stupid idea as that?RobD said:
I really cannot fathom the level of confusion.
What I am pointing out is simply that both cases and deaths are rising at roughly the same rate. The link has not been broken. It's just that the constant of proportionality has changed.
That means that we cannot simply let cases rip and witter on about "50% of nothing being nothing".
It is so simple, and yet it seems completely beyong most of the people here.
The rate of hospitalisation per infection has maybe halved.
That is reducing the rate of hospitalisation per infection. It is not "breaking the link" between infection and hospitalisation. If one doubles, the other still doubles. If one increases exponentially, the other still increases exponentially.
If you want to argue that the rate of infection doesn't matter any more, you need to estimate how high infections are going to go, and you need to estimate what proportion of infections are going to lead to hospitalisations, and then you need to check that is manageable.
None of which is done by any of you people. All we have is an endless barrage of mindless mantras and straw man misrepresentations, ranging from "Vaccines will make it all OK", through "Oh so you want to keep us in lockdown for ever", to "Oh so you don't think the rate of hospitalisation has dropped at all".
I make no apology whatsoever for characterising the standard of debate here as absolutely moronic!
That being said, the number of people in hospital with Covid is growing dramatically less quickly than the number of people being diagnosed with Covid.
In the past three weeks, the number of people being diagnosed with Covid has risen from around, 1,800 to 16,000 today. That's a roughly ten-fold increase.
By contrast, the number in hospital hasn't even doubled: it's gone from a low of 750 in England to 1,255. Furthermore the increase in "in hospital" numbers has slowed to its lowest rate in ten days.
Now it's entirely possible that reverses, and we see a dramatic increase. But right now, the number in hospital is growing at around one fifth the rate of the number of Covid cases.
I think if you're putting your faith in such a remarkable proposition as that, you should at least have some kind of idea why the normal laws of statistics don't apply to COVID-19 cases.
Do you?
My point, which is not a particularly controversial one, is that the number in hospital is growing less quickly than the number of cases.
You agree, right?
Every day the number of people double vaccinated rises.
This means that the number of people for whom hospitalisation is likely falls.
I don't think this should be controversial, either. The more vaccinated people there are, the fewer hosts for the virus there are.
In other words, so long as the number in hospital is growing relatively slowly (as currently), then the virus will run out of potential hosts before hospitals get anywhere near overwhelmed.
Let's do some maths.
Current week-over-week growth in "in hospital" is 19%. But let's go with 25% shall we. Let's assume that every week the number in hospital increases by that. That means that by the end of August, we're at 12,000 people in hospital. Which would be a lot.
But by the end of August, we'll also have everyone who wants to be double jabbed, double jabbed, and with fast acting mRNA vaccines too.
These are my assumptions. What are yours? What's the flaw in my reasoning?
Vaccination has decreased the percentage of cases that result in hospitalisation. By something like a factor of two. But as 60% of the most vulnerable have already been double vaccinated, it will not fall much further. (Remember that 30%+ of deaths are still among the doubly vaccinated, and a large proportion of the others are among the vulnerable who have refused vaccination.)
For that reason, hospitalisations will not carry on growing at 19% a week or 25% a week or whatever (and I suspect that low figure is more to do with the time lag behind cases than the increase in vaccinations in the last few weeks). They will grow at pretty much whatever rate cases grow at.
That is my whole point. If it takes 20% more of the population to be infected before we get to herd immunity, then the best estimate for the number of hospitalisations and deaths is going to be based on the current rates of hospitalisations and deaths per case, not an extrapolation of the hospitalisation and death rates of the last few weeks.
Either 1. vaccinations will continue to push down on cases, hospitalisation and death (more so on the latter 2 than the first as we see from the efficacy stats to date) in which case CFR and the ratio of hospitalisation will fall over time. Which is good news.
Or 2. vaccines have done the vast majority of the protective work that they can and any incremental effect now will be minimal. In which case we reach herd immunity eventually through infection rather than vaccination. Which is bad news, but also means lockdowns simply produce a timing rather than permanent difference.
The only scenarios where restrictions need to stay for any length of time are 1a. Not enough people are vaccinated and it gives us time (which is scenario 1 above if current growth and hospitalisation rates look too high for comfort, as opposed to 1b where rates are already manageable), or 2a. we need to flatten the remaining curve in scenario 2 if case and admissions growth threatens to overwhelm the health service, as opposed to 2b we can cope, so we let it run because we’re all going to get it eventually anyway.
We are in scenario 1a just about, I think, but by 19th June I tend to think we will be in scenario 1b even if curent cases remain high.
In March 2020 the Govt jumped from thinking we were in 2b to realising we were in 2a. Then they made the same mistakes in November and January 2020. Then by April 2021 we were on our way from 2a through 1a eventually reaching 1b.1 -
The last Euros we got knocked out in the last 16 by Iceland.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its the hope that kills you.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's coming home, it's coming home, football's coming home.tlg86 said:England v Hungary as it stands...
Biggest embarrassment the England football team has inflicted on me in my 42 years on this planet.0 -
Nah, I reckon conceding that goal against San Marino was worse.TheScreamingEagles said:
The last Euros we got knocked out in the last 16 by Iceland.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its the hope that kills you.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's coming home, it's coming home, football's coming home.tlg86 said:England v Hungary as it stands...
Biggest embarrassment the England football team has inflicted on me in my 42 years on this planet.0 -
First non home nation to win at Wembley?ping said:England Hungary
Bring it on!1 -
It's a cliché that there is a fine line between genius and madness.rcs1000 said:John McAfee has committed suicide: https://nypost.com/2021/06/23/john-mcafee-dies-by-suicide-inside-prison-in-barcelona/
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It's an old point. But it also doesn't definitely mean they died of Covid.ydoethur said:
That is a very foolish misquotation of a PHE study published just over a fortnight ago and deliberately falsified by Deepti Gurdasani.Chris said:
The flaw is simply this.rcs1000 said:
I didn't say that the hospitalisation rate was inversely related, I said the number is hospital was growing dramatically slower.Chris said:
You think the probability of a particular COVID-19 case ending in hospitalisation is somehow inversely proportional to the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country?rcs1000 said:
Look, you shouldn't do yourself down. You're a valuable member of the community, and you should have more confidence in your intellectual abilities.Chris said:
Look.RobD said:
But the absolute numbers are much better, suggesting that the vaccines are successfully reducing the chance of someone dying from it. Isn't that the link that was supposed to be broken?Chris said:
Where on earth did you get such a stupid idea as that?RobD said:
I really cannot fathom the level of confusion.
What I am pointing out is simply that both cases and deaths are rising at roughly the same rate. The link has not been broken. It's just that the constant of proportionality has changed.
That means that we cannot simply let cases rip and witter on about "50% of nothing being nothing".
It is so simple, and yet it seems completely beyong most of the people here.
The rate of hospitalisation per infection has maybe halved.
That is reducing the rate of hospitalisation per infection. It is not "breaking the link" between infection and hospitalisation. If one doubles, the other still doubles. If one increases exponentially, the other still increases exponentially.
If you want to argue that the rate of infection doesn't matter any more, you need to estimate how high infections are going to go, and you need to estimate what proportion of infections are going to lead to hospitalisations, and then you need to check that is manageable.
None of which is done by any of you people. All we have is an endless barrage of mindless mantras and straw man misrepresentations, ranging from "Vaccines will make it all OK", through "Oh so you want to keep us in lockdown for ever", to "Oh so you don't think the rate of hospitalisation has dropped at all".
I make no apology whatsoever for characterising the standard of debate here as absolutely moronic!
That being said, the number of people in hospital with Covid is growing dramatically less quickly than the number of people being diagnosed with Covid.
In the past three weeks, the number of people being diagnosed with Covid has risen from around, 1,800 to 16,000 today. That's a roughly ten-fold increase.
By contrast, the number in hospital hasn't even doubled: it's gone from a low of 750 in England to 1,255. Furthermore the increase in "in hospital" numbers has slowed to its lowest rate in ten days.
Now it's entirely possible that reverses, and we see a dramatic increase. But right now, the number in hospital is growing at around one fifth the rate of the number of Covid cases.
I think if you're putting your faith in such a remarkable proposition as that, you should at least have some kind of idea why the normal laws of statistics don't apply to COVID-19 cases.
Do you?
My point, which is not a particularly controversial one, is that the number in hospital is growing less quickly than the number of cases.
You agree, right?
Every day the number of people double vaccinated rises.
This means that the number of people for whom hospitalisation is likely falls.
I don't think this should be controversial, either. The more vaccinated people there are, the fewer hosts for the virus there are.
In other words, so long as the number in hospital is growing relatively slowly (as currently), then the virus will run out of potential hosts before hospitals get anywhere near overwhelmed.
Let's do some maths.
Current week-over-week growth in "in hospital" is 19%. But let's go with 25% shall we. Let's assume that every week the number in hospital increases by that. That means that by the end of August, we're at 12,000 people in hospital. Which would be a lot.
But by the end of August, we'll also have everyone who wants to be double jabbed, double jabbed, and with fast acting mRNA vaccines too.
These are my assumptions. What are yours? What's the flaw in my reasoning?
Vaccination has decreased the percentage of cases that result in hospitalisation. By something like a factor of two. But as 60% of the most vulnerable have already been double vaccinated, it will not fall much further. (Remember that 30%+ of deaths are still among the doubly vaccinated, and a large proportion of the others are among the vulnerable who have refused vaccination.)
The actual figure was 12 out of 42 fatalities from the Delta variant had had their second dose more than a fortnight before dying.
Leaving aside, for the moment, the issues raised by the small sample size, I think you will find if you do some of this funny stuff we call ‘arithmetic’ that the actual rate is 28.6% not ‘30%+’.
The issue is that it appears vaccines take slightly longer to build full immunity against Delta. And if you would think carefully, you would note that ‘death’ occurring two weeks after vaccination doesn’t mean infection happened then.1 -
1) We needed a miracle to qualify that nighttlg86 said:
Nah, I reckon conceding that goal against San Marino was worse.TheScreamingEagles said:
The last Euros we got knocked out in the last 16 by Iceland.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its the hope that kills you.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's coming home, it's coming home, football's coming home.tlg86 said:England v Hungary as it stands...
Biggest embarrassment the England football team has inflicted on me in my 42 years on this planet.
2) We won the match 7-1
As opposed to losing to Iceland who we outnumbered 160:1 on population and the three year PL rights value is about 75% of Iceland's GDP.
Losing to Iceland was orders worse than conceding first to San Marino.0 -
Bugger, Portugal to penalty.0
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Dodgy ref....0
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Could that possibly have been a red for Sane ?0
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This ref is approaching rugby union levels of penalty giving.0
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England - Portugal now I think ?0
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Yes.Pulpstar said:England - Portugal now I think ?
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Bugger.0
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It's Germany now.0
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Yes!0
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Ha!0
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Well that didn't last long did it? It's the hope etc as someone said earlier...MaxPB said:It's Germany now.
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0
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Not for long!!0
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What a night of football...
Brilliant Euros. Just brilliant entertainment in these times of Covid!0 -
Seems strange reading all the football comments while watching the Cricket. Normally when the Cricket is on that dominates comments here.0
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Not called the group of death for nothing0
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Lol what's going on.0
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Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.2
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This is reminiscent of the final day of the 1993-94 Premier League season.0
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Very comfortable T20 victory for England. Absolutely dominated, never seemed in doubt in our innings.
Why can't we play like that in Tests at the minute?0 -
The other thing is that, if unvaccinated 80 year olds are still the most vulnerable, you still get lots of hospitalisation benefit if you are filling in the remaining gaps in that population, even slowly.
Let's simplify for a moment and assume all Hospitalisations were of the over 80s. Then vaccinating the first 10% gives a 10% drag on hospitalisation. But taking the vaccination rate from 90 to 91% also gives a 10% drag on Hospitalisations.
This is an idealised system, of course, real world is messier, a few vaccinations don't work, second vaccinations fill in the gaps &c.
Chris has a point, which is again a simplification - if ALL you were doing was immunising 30 years olds, the drag on Hospitalisations would be minimal because unvaccinated older people would be the driver of hospitalisation and this would stay constant (pace herd immunity). In fact, at some point if you lower the vulnerability of younger cohorts to infection by vaccination whilst leaving the older unvaccinated cohort, you might get to a point where vaccination is actually increasing hospitalisation per case (but suppressing infection more).
The other thing here, of course, is all the asymptomatic cases in the double vaccinated.
But, real world, at the moment, taking lag into account, there is still an ongoing drag on Hospitalisations relative to cases that is observable week by week.0 -
Absolutely there is and Chris is 100% wrong in both logic and claims. Malmesbury's chart that everyone here is probably familiar with shows why:Pro_Rata said:The other thing is that, if unvaccinated 80 year olds are still the most vulnerable, you still get lots of hospitalisation benefit if you are filling in the remaining gaps in that population, even slowly.
Let's simplify for a moment and assume all Hospitalisations were of the over 80s. Then vaccinating the first 10% gives a 10% drag on hospitalisation. But taking the vaccination rate from 90 to 91% also gives a 10% drag on Hospitalisations.
This is an idealised system, of course, real world is messier, a few vaccinations don't work, second vaccinations fill in the gaps &c.
Chris has a point, which is again a simplification - if ALL you were doing was immunising 30 years olds, the drag on Hospitalisations would be minimal because unvaccinated older people would be the driver of hospitalisation and this would stay constant (pace herd immunity). In fact, at some point if you lower the vulnerability of younger cohorts to infection by vaccination whilst leaving the older unvaccinated cohort, you might get to a point where vaccination is actually increasing hospitalisation per case (but suppressing infection more).
The other thing here, of course, is all the asymptomatic cases in the double vaccinated.
But, real world, at the moment, taking lag into account, there is still an ongoing drag on Hospitalisations relative to cases that is observable week by week.
Hospitalisations aren't dominated by 80+ they're dominated by 18 to 64s.
Who are we vaccinated at the minute? 18 to 64s.
Every single week the group most at risk [at the minute] of being hospitalised is gaining vaccine immunity. That is why every single week the risk of hospitalisations per case is lowered.1 -
England vs Hungary = first foreign side to win at Wembley
England vs Portugal = Repeat of 1966 world cup semi final
England vs Germany = repeat of 1966 world cup final
England vs France = well, anything you like really1 -
I guess no one is bothering to pretend to take a moral high ground any more.williamglenn said:
The quotes are hilarious:rcs1000 said:
Not only that, but the EU can't make Pfizer vaccines without ingredients from the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Am I missing something, or is it way too late to be making that threat?williamglenn said:"Comply with Brexit deal or we’ll block vaccines, EU commissioner Thierry Breton suggests"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/comply-with-brexit-deal-or-well-block-vaccines-eu-commissioner-thierry-breton-suggests-282q25fvh
That's like the UK saying "give us what we want, or we'll invoke article 50".
So, it's a completely retarded threat. If, indeed, it is really a threat at all.
The dependence on imports could increase with the need for third doses to combat the Delta variant, Breton added, and “the people and perhaps the British government had not noticed that”.
“The United Kingdom depends more than ever on Europe.”0 -
No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.
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Sorry its a bit late, but reading the header I have to giggle at Brexit Hardman Steve Baker being concerned about the Rule of Law1
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I think England struggle to beat any of the options.MaxPB said:
No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.
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Well, people are complicated, even Brexit hardmen.RochdalePioneers said:Sorry its a bit late, but reading the header I have to giggle at Brexit Hardman Steve Baker being concerned about the Rule of Law
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Hungary now have ten minutes plus stoppages left to defend their position...0
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That's rather ... imaginative.contrarian said:
All that assumes that 'safety' is or was ever driving government policy in the way you present. I don't think it is now.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
The government is becoming more concerned about the alarming rise in cases of conservative voters in the south of England who are not voting conservative. The knock-on effect could be an increase in Tory MP disposalisations and an eventual overwhelming of the national conservative service.
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Have you joined the Independent SAGE Sporting Committee?MaxPB said:
No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUHTT2VnKao1 -
It's France and Portugal getting all the penalties practice. They are also looking at more stoppage time than the Germany-Hungary game.MaxPB said:
No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.
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If the Germans do go out, their press will make our lot's treatment of Graham Taylor look tame by comparison to what Bild et al will do to Low.1
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Germany
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Here we go again0
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Bugger0
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2-20
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Off to watch a day of GB News for you.....tlg86 said:If the Germans do go out, their press will make our lot's treatment of Graham Taylor look tame by comparison to what Bild et al will do to Low.
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Bollocks.0
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Brains Trust:
Does Scotland have an App with Covid status yet?0 -
Why aren't les bleus wearing bleu btw?0
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Wembley. Germany. Penalties...
This is the way1 -
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Time to open the book on which of the England players will miss the decisive penalty next Tuesday.MaxPB said:
No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.
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Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html2
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Wasteful cross by Sane. That could have been England vs France0
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Bit surprised the French haven't let Portugal have a free one here...0
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It’s England Germany then0
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Above 25GB? I use 5 a month!Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
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They think its all over.Scott_xP said:Wembley. Germany. Penalties...
This is the way0 -
Portugal winner could still change things.0
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Presume that Merkel won't actually allow the German team to travel to England?3
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"Above a monthly limit if 25GB"Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
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Thin end of the wedge, innit?MaxPB said:
"Above a monthly limit if 25GB"Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
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A chance for some more anti-capitalist populism from Boris.Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
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By the end of August, 90% of new coronavirus cases in the EU will be caused by Delta, according to the European CDC. "It is very likely that the Delta variant will circulate extensively during the summer" https://t.co/wGx4gmVGRH0
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A huge blow.MaxPB said:
"Above a monthly limit if 25GB"Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
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Covid antibodies:
Wales 88.7%
England 86.6%
Scotland 79.1%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/22june2021
I wonder if this difference is having and effect re current infections and hospitalisations.0 -
Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.0
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I doubt England will stop themFrancisUrquhart said:Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.
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It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/0 -
Pretty sure my Vodafone contract has had that limitation forever.alex_ said:
Thin end of the wedge, innit?MaxPB said:
"Above a monthly limit if 25GB"Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
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This was always trumpeted as a European 'success' and I could never see why. In order to give the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe cheaper phone bills for a week a year, the rest of is got our bills inflated. Really the European argument in miniature - a token benefit to the rich who travel to Europe, for which the poor pick up the tab.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A chance for some more anti-capitalist populism from Boris.Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
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Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.
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My BT contract sim has 60gb at £12 per monthMaxPB said:
Pretty sure my Vodafone contract has had that limitation forever.alex_ said:
Thin end of the wedge, innit?MaxPB said:
"Above a monthly limit if 25GB"Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
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8.4 says BFFrancisUrquhart said:Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.
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Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.
1 France 5.4 18.5%
2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
3 England 8 12.5%
4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
7 Belgium 11 9.1%
8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
9 Denmark 22 4.5%
10 Sweden 70 1.4%
11 Croatia 75 1.3%
100 bar.
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Though “the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe” and “token benefit for the rich” does rather overdo the idea of some tiny champagne-quaffing elite venturing across the channel. P&O ferries and Ryanair in July are not notably the reserve of the 1%. I doubt the only people benefiting from cheap roaming are the Lib Dem voters of Chesham and Amersham.Cookie said:
This was always trumpeted as a European 'success' and I could never see why. In order to give the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe cheaper phone bills for a week a year, the rest of is got our bills inflated. Really the European argument in miniature - a token benefit to the rich who travel to Europe, for which the poor pick up the tab.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A chance for some more anti-capitalist populism from Boris.Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
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This isn't a great Germany side.Black_Rook said:
Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.
Pity to lose Hungary, they looked a good side.0 -
Thanks for positing that, interesting that was for the week beginning 7 June, when the following % had had there first jab:another_richard said:Covid antibodies:
Wales 88.7%
England 86.6%
NI 85.4%
Scotland 79.1%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/22june2021
I wonder if this difference is having and effect re current infections and hospitalisations.
Wales: 86.6%
England: 76.6%
NI: 75.3%
Scotland: 76.8%
Suggesting that there are a significant number of people in England and NI that have antibodies without having had the vaccine, but less so in Wales and Scotland, cant think why?0 -
I would not be confident England can beat any in that listDecrepiterJohnL said:Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.
1 France 5.4 18.5%
2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
3 England 8 12.5%
4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
7 Belgium 11 9.1%
8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
9 Denmark 22 4.5%
10 Sweden 70 1.4%
11 Croatia 75 1.3%
100 bar.1 -
Did you miss the Germany/Hungary game that has just finished? Not much to fear.Black_Rook said:
Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.
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I'd not be too confident of any outcome. France look the most likely winners but after them, and perhaps even including them, there is not a great deal separating these sides.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not be confident England can beat any in that listDecrepiterJohnL said:Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.
1 France 5.4 18.5%
2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
3 England 8 12.5%
4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
7 Belgium 11 9.1%
8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
9 Denmark 22 4.5%
10 Sweden 70 1.4%
11 Croatia 75 1.3%
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No, this is not the Germany of old. But then England are not the England of old, and even that was never good enough. Germany will win comfortably enough.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Did you miss the Germany/Hungary game that has just finished? Not much to fear.Black_Rook said:
Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.
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Hang on - we've already beaten one of them this tournament!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not be confident England can beat any in that listDecrepiterJohnL said:Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.
1 France 5.4 18.5%
2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
3 England 8 12.5%
4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
7 Belgium 11 9.1%
8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
9 Denmark 22 4.5%
10 Sweden 70 1.4%
11 Croatia 75 1.3%
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If we can get past Germany then I'd definitely rather be in our half of the draw than the other half.0
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another_richard said:
It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
I can't see that from the link - the 7 day average is still declining slowly.0 -
Reckon Hungary would be still in in any other group.Foxy said:
This isn't a great Germany side.Black_Rook said:
Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.
Pity to lose Hungary, they looked a good side.
Worth noting they are in our WC qualifying group too.0 -
Maybe but the team just does not inspire confidenceBenpointer said:
Hang on - we've already beaten one of them this tournament!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not be confident England can beat any in that listDecrepiterJohnL said:Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.
1 France 5.4 18.5%
2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
3 England 8 12.5%
4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
7 Belgium 11 9.1%
8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
9 Denmark 22 4.5%
10 Sweden 70 1.4%
11 Croatia 75 1.3%
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Black man names brand of rum after festival that mocks plantation owners and inspiration for Notting Hill Carnival...but is cultural appropriation so still has to go.
BBC News - Actor Michael B Jordan to rename J'Ouvert rum after Nicki Minaj criticism
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-575812400 -
Let's see how it looks this time next week. If we've lost or are about to have penalties (much the same thing) you'll be right. If we beat Germany, then who knows?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but the team just does not inspire confidenceBenpointer said:
Hang on - we've already beaten one of them this tournament!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not be confident England can beat any in that listDecrepiterJohnL said:Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.
1 France 5.4 18.5%
2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
3 England 8 12.5%
4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
7 Belgium 11 9.1%
8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
9 Denmark 22 4.5%
10 Sweden 70 1.4%
11 Croatia 75 1.3%
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France should win, but as we saw against Hungary and tonight they haven't won those games despite being the better team. So not a done deal.DecrepiterJohnL said:
I'd not be too confident of any outcome. France look the most likely winners but after them, and perhaps even including them, there is not a great deal separating these sides.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not be confident England can beat any in that listDecrepiterJohnL said:Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.
1 France 5.4 18.5%
2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
3 England 8 12.5%
4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
7 Belgium 11 9.1%
8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
9 Denmark 22 4.5%
10 Sweden 70 1.4%
11 Croatia 75 1.3%
100 bar.
Italy have looked exceptional and Belgium and Holland look very good.0 -
On the weekly trends Spain is WoW -5% much less than most of EU, so could be the first of the big EU nations to trend up?another_richard said:It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
Scandinavia is possibly also on the UP, WoW
Sweden +44%
Finland +7%
Norway +2%
(but the Sweden number looks like a statistical quark as the data is very jumpy.)0 -
I'm sure that's right.FrancisUrquhart said:By the end of August, 90% of new coronavirus cases in the EU will be caused by Delta, according to the European CDC. "It is very likely that the Delta variant will circulate extensively during the summer" https://t.co/wGx4gmVGRH
But by the end of August - at current rates of 28m vaccinations a week - they'll have done another 220m doses.
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No, granted. But the sorts of people who go abroad on holiday do tend to assume that everybody goes abroad on holiday. The Cookie family are not poor by any manner of means, but we're unlikely to be able to afford a foreign holiday until the kids leave home. This is far from unusual.TimS said:
Though “the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe” and “token benefit for the rich” does rather overdo the idea of some tiny champagne-quaffing elite venturing across the channel. P&O ferries and Ryanair in July are not notably the reserve of the 1%. I doubt the only people benefiting from cheap roaming are the Lib Dem voters of Chesham and Amersham.Cookie said:
This was always trumpeted as a European 'success' and I could never see why. In order to give the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe cheaper phone bills for a week a year, the rest of is got our bills inflated. Really the European argument in miniature - a token benefit to the rich who travel to Europe, for which the poor pick up the tab.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A chance for some more anti-capitalist populism from Boris.Scott_xP said:Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
Of course, I did venture beyond these shores before kids. But while it was a pleasant novelty to have your phone welcome you to whatever country you were in, and indeed to know that should you need to you could use it as easily and cheaply as at home, I don't recall ever using my phone on holiday. That was pre-smartphone of course - just had to go without pb.com and cricket results for a few days.
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Yes it's a doozy. I'm feeling it now and my money's going down. England. Value.Philip_Thompson said:If we can get past Germany then I'd definitely rather be in our half of the draw than the other half.
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My tip for Germany to win by more than 3 goals was pretty rubbish. Should have been for more than 3 goals overall.1
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Not on the data you linked too though.another_richard said:It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/0 -
23/06 4,341Benpointer said:another_richard said:It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
I can't see that from the link - the 7 day average is still declining slowly.
22/06 4,040
21/06 2,360
18/06 4,214
16/06 3,832
15/06 3,432
14/06 2,674
11/06 4,142
So the last two days have shown significant increases over the previous week.
Not conclusive yet but its following the pattern of Portugal of a few weeks back.
Spain has a higher case number than Portugal did but it also will have a higher level of vaccine protection.0 -
The WHO site has more up to date info (https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/es), however I'm sure you're right: they're right next to Portugal, and there have been clear signs of growth along the Southern coast.another_richard said:It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
In their favour, they've *really* stepped up the pace of vaccinations. Eyeballing it, they're now at the same place the UK was around the middle of May.0
