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Steve Baker MP is right about the exemption for quarantine exemptions UEFA officials – politicalbett

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Comments

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Do you think the fatality rate is unchanged or something?

    Why on earth should you think something so stupid?

    Incomprehensible.
    I'm not sure where you are coming from then. What's your beef about the claim that there are fewer deaths now than there were in October?
    Where on earth did you get such a stupid idea as that?

    I really cannot fathom the level of confusion.

    What I am pointing out is simply that both cases and deaths are rising at roughly the same rate. The link has not been broken. It's just that the constant of proportionality has changed.

    That means that we cannot simply let cases rip and witter on about "50% of nothing being nothing".

    It is so simple, and yet it seems completely beyong most of the people here.
    But the absolute numbers are much better, suggesting that the vaccines are successfully reducing the chance of someone dying from it. Isn't that the link that was supposed to be broken?
    Look.

    The rate of hospitalisation per infection has maybe halved.

    That is reducing the rate of hospitalisation per infection. It is not "breaking the link" between infection and hospitalisation. If one doubles, the other still doubles. If one increases exponentially, the other still increases exponentially.

    If you want to argue that the rate of infection doesn't matter any more, you need to estimate how high infections are going to go, and you need to estimate what proportion of infections are going to lead to hospitalisations, and then you need to check that is manageable.

    None of which is done by any of you people. All we have is an endless barrage of mindless mantras and straw man misrepresentations, ranging from "Vaccines will make it all OK", through "Oh so you want to keep us in lockdown for ever", to "Oh so you don't think the rate of hospitalisation has dropped at all".

    I make no apology whatsoever for characterising the standard of debate here as absolutely moronic!
    Look, you shouldn't do yourself down. You're a valuable member of the community, and you should have more confidence in your intellectual abilities.

    That being said, the number of people in hospital with Covid is growing dramatically less quickly than the number of people being diagnosed with Covid.

    In the past three weeks, the number of people being diagnosed with Covid has risen from around, 1,800 to 16,000 today. That's a roughly ten-fold increase.

    By contrast, the number in hospital hasn't even doubled: it's gone from a low of 750 in England to 1,255. Furthermore the increase in "in hospital" numbers has slowed to its lowest rate in ten days.

    Now it's entirely possible that reverses, and we see a dramatic increase. But right now, the number in hospital is growing at around one fifth the rate of the number of Covid cases.
    You think the probability of a particular COVID-19 case ending in hospitalisation is somehow inversely proportional to the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country?

    I think if you're putting your faith in such a remarkable proposition as that, you should at least have some kind of idea why the normal laws of statistics don't apply to COVID-19 cases.

    Do you?
    I didn't say that the hospitalisation rate was inversely related, I said the number is hospital was growing dramatically slower.

    My point, which is not a particularly controversial one, is that the number in hospital is growing less quickly than the number of cases.

    You agree, right?

    Every day the number of people double vaccinated rises.

    This means that the number of people for whom hospitalisation is likely falls.

    I don't think this should be controversial, either. The more vaccinated people there are, the fewer hosts for the virus there are.

    In other words, so long as the number in hospital is growing relatively slowly (as currently), then the virus will run out of potential hosts before hospitals get anywhere near overwhelmed.

    Let's do some maths.

    Current week-over-week growth in "in hospital" is 19%. But let's go with 25% shall we. Let's assume that every week the number in hospital increases by that. That means that by the end of August, we're at 12,000 people in hospital. Which would be a lot.

    But by the end of August, we'll also have everyone who wants to be double jabbed, double jabbed, and with fast acting mRNA vaccines too.

    These are my assumptions. What are yours? What's the flaw in my reasoning?
    The flaw is simply this.

    Vaccination has decreased the percentage of cases that result in hospitalisation. By something like a factor of two. But as 60% of the most vulnerable have already been double vaccinated, it will not fall much further. (Remember that 30%+ of deaths are still among the doubly vaccinated, and a large proportion of the others are among the vulnerable who have refused vaccination.)

    For that reason, hospitalisations will not carry on growing at 19% a week or 25% a week or whatever (and I suspect that low figure is more to do with the time lag behind cases than the increase in vaccinations in the last few weeks). They will grow at pretty much whatever rate cases grow at.

    That is my whole point. If it takes 20% more of the population to be infected before we get to herd immunity, then the best estimate for the number of hospitalisations and deaths is going to be based on the current rates of hospitalisations and deaths per case, not an extrapolation of the hospitalisation and death rates of the last few weeks.
    The only way out long term is through herd immunity. Do you propose the death of the night time economy forever ?
    Well I think we reach a moment of truth here, actually.

    Either 1. vaccinations will continue to push down on cases, hospitalisation and death (more so on the latter 2 than the first as we see from the efficacy stats to date) in which case CFR and the ratio of hospitalisation will fall over time. Which is good news.

    Or 2. vaccines have done the vast majority of the protective work that they can and any incremental effect now will be minimal. In which case we reach herd immunity eventually through infection rather than vaccination. Which is bad news, but also means lockdowns simply produce a timing rather than permanent difference.

    The only scenarios where restrictions need to stay for any length of time are 1a. Not enough people are vaccinated and it gives us time (which is scenario 1 above if current growth and hospitalisation rates look too high for comfort, as opposed to 1b where rates are already manageable), or 2a. we need to flatten the remaining curve in scenario 2 if case and admissions growth threatens to overwhelm the health service, as opposed to 2b we can cope, so we let it run because we’re all going to get it eventually anyway.

    We are in scenario 1a just about, I think, but by 19th June I tend to think we will be in scenario 1b even if curent cases remain high.

    In March 2020 the Govt jumped from thinking we were in 2b to realising we were in 2a. Then they made the same mistakes in November and January 2020. Then by April 2021 we were on our way from 2a through 1a eventually reaching 1b.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,614

    tlg86 said:

    England v Hungary as it stands...

    It's coming home, it's coming home, football's coming home.
    Its the hope that kills you.
    The last Euros we got knocked out in the last 16 by Iceland.

    Biggest embarrassment the England football team has inflicted on me in my 42 years on this planet.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173

    tlg86 said:

    England v Hungary as it stands...

    It's coming home, it's coming home, football's coming home.
    Its the hope that kills you.
    The last Euros we got knocked out in the last 16 by Iceland.

    Biggest embarrassment the England football team has inflicted on me in my 42 years on this planet.
    Nah, I reckon conceding that goal against San Marino was worse.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    ping said:

    England Hungary

    Bring it on!

    First non home nation to win at Wembley?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,858
    rcs1000 said:
    It's a cliché that there is a fine line between genius and madness.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Do you think the fatality rate is unchanged or something?

    Why on earth should you think something so stupid?

    Incomprehensible.
    I'm not sure where you are coming from then. What's your beef about the claim that there are fewer deaths now than there were in October?
    Where on earth did you get such a stupid idea as that?

    I really cannot fathom the level of confusion.

    What I am pointing out is simply that both cases and deaths are rising at roughly the same rate. The link has not been broken. It's just that the constant of proportionality has changed.

    That means that we cannot simply let cases rip and witter on about "50% of nothing being nothing".

    It is so simple, and yet it seems completely beyong most of the people here.
    But the absolute numbers are much better, suggesting that the vaccines are successfully reducing the chance of someone dying from it. Isn't that the link that was supposed to be broken?
    Look.

    The rate of hospitalisation per infection has maybe halved.

    That is reducing the rate of hospitalisation per infection. It is not "breaking the link" between infection and hospitalisation. If one doubles, the other still doubles. If one increases exponentially, the other still increases exponentially.

    If you want to argue that the rate of infection doesn't matter any more, you need to estimate how high infections are going to go, and you need to estimate what proportion of infections are going to lead to hospitalisations, and then you need to check that is manageable.

    None of which is done by any of you people. All we have is an endless barrage of mindless mantras and straw man misrepresentations, ranging from "Vaccines will make it all OK", through "Oh so you want to keep us in lockdown for ever", to "Oh so you don't think the rate of hospitalisation has dropped at all".

    I make no apology whatsoever for characterising the standard of debate here as absolutely moronic!
    Look, you shouldn't do yourself down. You're a valuable member of the community, and you should have more confidence in your intellectual abilities.

    That being said, the number of people in hospital with Covid is growing dramatically less quickly than the number of people being diagnosed with Covid.

    In the past three weeks, the number of people being diagnosed with Covid has risen from around, 1,800 to 16,000 today. That's a roughly ten-fold increase.

    By contrast, the number in hospital hasn't even doubled: it's gone from a low of 750 in England to 1,255. Furthermore the increase in "in hospital" numbers has slowed to its lowest rate in ten days.

    Now it's entirely possible that reverses, and we see a dramatic increase. But right now, the number in hospital is growing at around one fifth the rate of the number of Covid cases.
    You think the probability of a particular COVID-19 case ending in hospitalisation is somehow inversely proportional to the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country?

    I think if you're putting your faith in such a remarkable proposition as that, you should at least have some kind of idea why the normal laws of statistics don't apply to COVID-19 cases.

    Do you?
    I didn't say that the hospitalisation rate was inversely related, I said the number is hospital was growing dramatically slower.

    My point, which is not a particularly controversial one, is that the number in hospital is growing less quickly than the number of cases.

    You agree, right?

    Every day the number of people double vaccinated rises.

    This means that the number of people for whom hospitalisation is likely falls.

    I don't think this should be controversial, either. The more vaccinated people there are, the fewer hosts for the virus there are.

    In other words, so long as the number in hospital is growing relatively slowly (as currently), then the virus will run out of potential hosts before hospitals get anywhere near overwhelmed.

    Let's do some maths.

    Current week-over-week growth in "in hospital" is 19%. But let's go with 25% shall we. Let's assume that every week the number in hospital increases by that. That means that by the end of August, we're at 12,000 people in hospital. Which would be a lot.

    But by the end of August, we'll also have everyone who wants to be double jabbed, double jabbed, and with fast acting mRNA vaccines too.

    These are my assumptions. What are yours? What's the flaw in my reasoning?
    The flaw is simply this.

    Vaccination has decreased the percentage of cases that result in hospitalisation. By something like a factor of two. But as 60% of the most vulnerable have already been double vaccinated, it will not fall much further. (Remember that 30%+ of deaths are still among the doubly vaccinated, and a large proportion of the others are among the vulnerable who have refused vaccination.)
    That is a very foolish misquotation of a PHE study published just over a fortnight ago and deliberately falsified by Deepti Gurdasani.

    The actual figure was 12 out of 42 fatalities from the Delta variant had had their second dose more than a fortnight before dying.

    Leaving aside, for the moment, the issues raised by the small sample size, I think you will find if you do some of this funny stuff we call ‘arithmetic’ that the actual rate is 28.6% not ‘30%+’.

    The issue is that it appears vaccines take slightly longer to build full immunity against Delta. And if you would think carefully, you would note that ‘death’ occurring two weeks after vaccination doesn’t mean infection happened then.
    It's an old point. But it also doesn't definitely mean they died of Covid.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,614
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    England v Hungary as it stands...

    It's coming home, it's coming home, football's coming home.
    Its the hope that kills you.
    The last Euros we got knocked out in the last 16 by Iceland.

    Biggest embarrassment the England football team has inflicted on me in my 42 years on this planet.
    Nah, I reckon conceding that goal against San Marino was worse.
    1) We needed a miracle to qualify that night

    2) We won the match 7-1

    As opposed to losing to Iceland who we outnumbered 160:1 on population and the three year PL rights value is about 75% of Iceland's GDP.

    Losing to Iceland was orders worse than conceding first to San Marino.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,614
    Bugger, Portugal to penalty.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963
    Dodgy ref....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    Could that possibly have been a red for Sane ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    This ref is approaching rugby union levels of penalty giving.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    England - Portugal now I think ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,614
    Pulpstar said:

    England - Portugal now I think ?

    Yes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Bugger.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,784
    It's Germany now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Yes!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Ha!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    MaxPB said:

    It's Germany now.

    Oh no it isn't!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    MaxPB said:

    It's Germany now.

    Well that didn't last long did it? It's the hope etc as someone said earlier...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    It's Germany now.

    You were saying?

    This is a total lottery now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    Not for long!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,547
    What a night of football...

    Brilliant Euros. Just brilliant entertainment in these times of Covid!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Seems strange reading all the football comments while watching the Cricket. Normally when the Cricket is on that dominates comments here.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Not called the group of death for nothing
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,784
    Lol what's going on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963
    Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    This is reminiscent of the final day of the 1993-94 Premier League season.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Very comfortable T20 victory for England. Absolutely dominated, never seemed in doubt in our innings.

    Why can't we play like that in Tests at the minute?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,282
    The other thing is that, if unvaccinated 80 year olds are still the most vulnerable, you still get lots of hospitalisation benefit if you are filling in the remaining gaps in that population, even slowly.

    Let's simplify for a moment and assume all Hospitalisations were of the over 80s. Then vaccinating the first 10% gives a 10% drag on hospitalisation. But taking the vaccination rate from 90 to 91% also gives a 10% drag on Hospitalisations.

    This is an idealised system, of course, real world is messier, a few vaccinations don't work, second vaccinations fill in the gaps &c.

    Chris has a point, which is again a simplification - if ALL you were doing was immunising 30 years olds, the drag on Hospitalisations would be minimal because unvaccinated older people would be the driver of hospitalisation and this would stay constant (pace herd immunity). In fact, at some point if you lower the vulnerability of younger cohorts to infection by vaccination whilst leaving the older unvaccinated cohort, you might get to a point where vaccination is actually increasing hospitalisation per case (but suppressing infection more).

    The other thing here, of course, is all the asymptomatic cases in the double vaccinated.

    But, real world, at the moment, taking lag into account, there is still an ongoing drag on Hospitalisations relative to cases that is observable week by week.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2021
    Pro_Rata said:

    The other thing is that, if unvaccinated 80 year olds are still the most vulnerable, you still get lots of hospitalisation benefit if you are filling in the remaining gaps in that population, even slowly.

    Let's simplify for a moment and assume all Hospitalisations were of the over 80s. Then vaccinating the first 10% gives a 10% drag on hospitalisation. But taking the vaccination rate from 90 to 91% also gives a 10% drag on Hospitalisations.

    This is an idealised system, of course, real world is messier, a few vaccinations don't work, second vaccinations fill in the gaps &c.

    Chris has a point, which is again a simplification - if ALL you were doing was immunising 30 years olds, the drag on Hospitalisations would be minimal because unvaccinated older people would be the driver of hospitalisation and this would stay constant (pace herd immunity). In fact, at some point if you lower the vulnerability of younger cohorts to infection by vaccination whilst leaving the older unvaccinated cohort, you might get to a point where vaccination is actually increasing hospitalisation per case (but suppressing infection more).

    The other thing here, of course, is all the asymptomatic cases in the double vaccinated.

    But, real world, at the moment, taking lag into account, there is still an ongoing drag on Hospitalisations relative to cases that is observable week by week.

    Absolutely there is and Chris is 100% wrong in both logic and claims. Malmesbury's chart that everyone here is probably familiar with shows why:
    image

    Hospitalisations aren't dominated by 80+ they're dominated by 18 to 64s.

    Who are we vaccinated at the minute? 18 to 64s.

    Every single week the group most at risk [at the minute] of being hospitalised is gaining vaccine immunity. That is why every single week the risk of hospitalisations per case is lowered.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    England vs Hungary = first foreign side to win at Wembley
    England vs Portugal = Repeat of 1966 world cup semi final
    England vs Germany = repeat of 1966 world cup final
    England vs France = well, anything you like really
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    rcs1000 said:

    "Comply with Brexit deal or we’ll block vaccines, EU commissioner Thierry Breton suggests"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/comply-with-brexit-deal-or-well-block-vaccines-eu-commissioner-thierry-breton-suggests-282q25fvh

    Am I missing something, or is it way too late to be making that threat?

    That's like the UK saying "give us what we want, or we'll invoke article 50".
    Not only that, but the EU can't make Pfizer vaccines without ingredients from the UK.

    So, it's a completely retarded threat. If, indeed, it is really a threat at all.
    The quotes are hilarious:

    The dependence on imports could increase with the need for third doses to combat the Delta variant, Breton added, and “the people and perhaps the British government had not noticed that”.

    “The United Kingdom depends more than ever on Europe.”
    I guess no one is bothering to pretend to take a moral high ground any more.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,784

    Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.

    No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Sorry its a bit late, but reading the header I have to giggle at Brexit Hardman Steve Baker being concerned about the Rule of Law
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963
    MaxPB said:

    Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.

    No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.
    I think England struggle to beat any of the options.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    Sorry its a bit late, but reading the header I have to giggle at Brexit Hardman Steve Baker being concerned about the Rule of Law

    Well, people are complicated, even Brexit hardmen.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Hungary now have ten minutes plus stoppages left to defend their position...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118

    The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
    On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
    If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
    The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.

    I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.

    It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.

    Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.

    All that assumes that 'safety' is or was ever driving government policy in the way you present. I don't think it is now.

    The government is becoming more concerned about the alarming rise in cases of conservative voters in the south of England who are not voting conservative. The knock-on effect could be an increase in Tory MP disposalisations and an eventual overwhelming of the national conservative service.

    That's rather ... imaginative.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.

    No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.
    Have you joined the Independent SAGE Sporting Committee?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUHTT2VnKao
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,858
    MaxPB said:

    Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.

    No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.
    It's France and Portugal getting all the penalties practice. They are also looking at more stoppage time than the Germany-Hungary game.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    edited June 2021
    If the Germans do go out, their press will make our lot's treatment of Graham Taylor look tame by comparison to what Bild et al will do to Low.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Germany :(
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Here we go again
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,282
    Bugger
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,111
    2-2
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963
    tlg86 said:

    If the Germans do go out, their press will make our lot's treatment of Graham Taylor look tame by comparison to what Bild et al will do to Low.

    Off to watch a day of GB News for you.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,784
    Bollocks.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118
    Brains Trust:

    Does Scotland have an App with Covid status yet?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,858
    Why aren't les bleus wearing bleu btw?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,978
    Wembley. Germany. Penalties...

    This is the way
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    Scott_xP said:

    Wembley. Germany. Penalties...

    This is the way

    This is known as the Dothraki say.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    edited June 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Wembley. Germany. Penalties...

    This is the way

    Nah, we've got an Azerbaijani linesman on standby (and a curious glitch with the GLT).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    Germany are shit aren't they....perhaps we want to play them after all.

    No. 1-1 then we lose on pens. It is written.
    Time to open the book on which of the England players will miss the decisive penalty next Tuesday.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,978
    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Wasteful cross by Sane. That could have been England vs France
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    Bit surprised the French haven't let Portugal have a free one here...
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    It’s England Germany then
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited June 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    Above 25GB? I use 5 a month! ;)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    Wembley. Germany. Penalties...

    This is the way

    They think its all over.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,282
    Portugal winner could still change things.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,282
    Pro_Rata said:

    Portugal winner could still change things.

    And, unfortunately, they know it...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Presume that Merkel won't actually allow the German team to travel to England?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,784
    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    "Above a monthly limit if 25GB"
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    "Above a monthly limit if 25GB"
    Thin end of the wedge, innit?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,858
    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    A chance for some more anti-capitalist populism from Boris.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963
    By the end of August, 90% of new coronavirus cases in the EU will be caused by Delta, according to the European CDC. "It is very likely that the Delta variant will circulate extensively during the summer" https://t.co/wGx4gmVGRH
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    "Above a monthly limit if 25GB"
    A huge blow.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    Covid antibodies:

    Wales 88.7%
    England 86.6%
    Scotland 79.1%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/22june2021

    I wonder if this difference is having and effect re current infections and hospitalisations.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963
    Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,012

    Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.

    I doubt England will stop them
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,784
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    "Above a monthly limit if 25GB"
    Thin end of the wedge, innit?
    Pretty sure my Vodafone contract has had that limitation forever.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,772

    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    A chance for some more anti-capitalist populism from Boris.
    This was always trumpeted as a European 'success' and I could never see why. In order to give the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe cheaper phone bills for a week a year, the rest of is got our bills inflated. Really the European argument in miniature - a token benefit to the rich who travel to Europe, for which the poor pick up the tab.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.

    Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,012
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    "Above a monthly limit if 25GB"
    Thin end of the wedge, innit?
    Pretty sure my Vodafone contract has had that limitation forever.
    My BT contract sim has 60gb at £12 per month
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688

    Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.

    8.4 says BF
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,858
    edited June 2021
    Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.

    1 France 5.4 18.5%
    2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
    3 England 8 12.5%
    4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
    5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
    6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
    7 Belgium 11 9.1%
    8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
    9 Denmark 22 4.5%
    10 Sweden 70 1.4%
    11 Croatia 75 1.3%
    100 bar.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    edited June 2021
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    A chance for some more anti-capitalist populism from Boris.
    This was always trumpeted as a European 'success' and I could never see why. In order to give the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe cheaper phone bills for a week a year, the rest of is got our bills inflated. Really the European argument in miniature - a token benefit to the rich who travel to Europe, for which the poor pick up the tab.
    Though “the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe” and “token benefit for the rich” does rather overdo the idea of some tiny champagne-quaffing elite venturing across the channel. P&O ferries and Ryanair in July are not notably the reserve of the 1%. I doubt the only people benefiting from cheap roaming are the Lib Dem voters of Chesham and Amersham.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.

    Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.
    This isn't a great Germany side.

    Pity to lose Hungary, they looked a good side.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Covid antibodies:

    Wales 88.7%
    England 86.6%
    NI 85.4%
    Scotland 79.1%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/22june2021

    I wonder if this difference is having and effect re current infections and hospitalisations.

    Thanks for positing that, interesting that was for the week beginning 7 June, when the following % had had there first jab:

    Wales: 86.6%
    England: 76.6%
    NI: 75.3%
    Scotland: 76.8%

    Suggesting that there are a significant number of people in England and NI that have antibodies without having had the vaccine, but less so in Wales and Scotland, cant think why?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,012

    Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.

    1 France 5.4 18.5%
    2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
    3 England 8 12.5%
    4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
    5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
    6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
    7 Belgium 11 9.1%
    8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
    9 Denmark 22 4.5%
    10 Sweden 70 1.4%
    11 Croatia 75 1.3%
    100 bar.

    I would not be confident England can beat any in that list
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,858

    Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.

    Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.
    Did you miss the Germany/Hungary game that has just finished? Not much to fear.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,858

    Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.

    1 France 5.4 18.5%
    2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
    3 England 8 12.5%
    4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
    5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
    6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
    7 Belgium 11 9.1%
    8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
    9 Denmark 22 4.5%
    10 Sweden 70 1.4%
    11 Croatia 75 1.3%
    100 bar.

    I would not be confident England can beat any in that list
    I'd not be too confident of any outcome. France look the most likely winners but after them, and perhaps even including them, there is not a great deal separating these sides.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,772

    Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.

    Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.
    Did you miss the Germany/Hungary game that has just finished? Not much to fear.
    No, this is not the Germany of old. But then England are not the England of old, and even that was never good enough. Germany will win comfortably enough.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    edited June 2021

    Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.

    1 France 5.4 18.5%
    2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
    3 England 8 12.5%
    4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
    5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
    6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
    7 Belgium 11 9.1%
    8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
    9 Denmark 22 4.5%
    10 Sweden 70 1.4%
    11 Croatia 75 1.3%
    100 bar.

    I would not be confident England can beat any in that list
    Hang on - we've already beaten one of them this tournament!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If we can get past Germany then I'd definitely rather be in our half of the draw than the other half.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/


    I can't see that from the link - the 7 day average is still declining slowly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    Foxy said:

    Germany probably go on and win the tournament now.

    Well they've got close to a free pass to the semi-final. The likelihood of their being derailed by England is nil, and they'll be strong favourites against either Sweden or Ukraine.
    This isn't a great Germany side.

    Pity to lose Hungary, they looked a good side.
    Reckon Hungary would be still in in any other group.
    Worth noting they are in our WC qualifying group too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,012

    Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.

    1 France 5.4 18.5%
    2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
    3 England 8 12.5%
    4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
    5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
    6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
    7 Belgium 11 9.1%
    8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
    9 Denmark 22 4.5%
    10 Sweden 70 1.4%
    11 Croatia 75 1.3%
    100 bar.

    I would not be confident England can beat any in that list
    Hang on - we've already beaten one of them this tournament!
    Maybe but the team just does not inspire confidence
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963
    edited June 2021
    Black man names brand of rum after festival that mocks plantation owners and inspiration for Notting Hill Carnival...but is cultural appropriation so still has to go.

    BBC News - Actor Michael B Jordan to rename J'Ouvert rum after Nicki Minaj criticism
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-57581240
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.

    1 France 5.4 18.5%
    2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
    3 England 8 12.5%
    4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
    5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
    6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
    7 Belgium 11 9.1%
    8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
    9 Denmark 22 4.5%
    10 Sweden 70 1.4%
    11 Croatia 75 1.3%
    100 bar.

    I would not be confident England can beat any in that list
    Hang on - we've already beaten one of them this tournament!
    Maybe but the team just does not inspire confidence
    Let's see how it looks this time next week. If we've lost or are about to have penalties (much the same thing) you'll be right. If we beat Germany, then who knows?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963

    Euro 2020 prices on Betfair and their implied probabilities. England are now third-favourites, in from sixth-best this morning.

    1 France 5.4 18.5%
    2 Italy 7.8 12.8%
    3 England 8 12.5%
    4 Germany 8.6 11.6%
    5 Spain 9.6 10.4%
    6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
    7 Belgium 11 9.1%
    8 Portugal 13.5 7.4%
    9 Denmark 22 4.5%
    10 Sweden 70 1.4%
    11 Croatia 75 1.3%
    100 bar.

    I would not be confident England can beat any in that list
    I'd not be too confident of any outcome. France look the most likely winners but after them, and perhaps even including them, there is not a great deal separating these sides.
    France should win, but as we saw against Hungary and tonight they haven't won those games despite being the better team. So not a done deal.

    Italy have looked exceptional and Belgium and Holland look very good.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

    On the weekly trends Spain is WoW -5% much less than most of EU, so could be the first of the big EU nations to trend up?

    Scandinavia is possibly also on the UP, WoW

    Sweden +44%
    Finland +7%
    Norway +2%

    (but the Sweden number looks like a statistical quark as the data is very jumpy.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,111

    By the end of August, 90% of new coronavirus cases in the EU will be caused by Delta, according to the European CDC. "It is very likely that the Delta variant will circulate extensively during the summer" https://t.co/wGx4gmVGRH

    I'm sure that's right.

    But by the end of August - at current rates of 28m vaccinations a week - they'll have done another 220m doses.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,772
    TimS said:

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Things you didn’t read on that Brexit bus five years ago: Roaming charges to return for travellers to EU in Brexit blow, leading operator announces https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-o2-data-roaming-charges-b1871484.html

    A chance for some more anti-capitalist populism from Boris.
    This was always trumpeted as a European 'success' and I could never see why. In order to give the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe cheaper phone bills for a week a year, the rest of is got our bills inflated. Really the European argument in miniature - a token benefit to the rich who travel to Europe, for which the poor pick up the tab.
    Though “the minority of UK citizens who go to Europe” and “token benefit for the rich” does rather overdo the idea of some tiny champagne-quaffing elite venturing across the channel. P&O ferries and Ryanair in July are not notably the reserve of the 1%. I doubt the only people benefiting from cheap roaming are the Lib Dem voters of Chesham and Amersham.
    No, granted. But the sorts of people who go abroad on holiday do tend to assume that everybody goes abroad on holiday. The Cookie family are not poor by any manner of means, but we're unlikely to be able to afford a foreign holiday until the kids leave home. This is far from unusual.
    Of course, I did venture beyond these shores before kids. But while it was a pleasant novelty to have your phone welcome you to whatever country you were in, and indeed to know that should you need to you could use it as easily and cheaply as at home, I don't recall ever using my phone on holiday. That was pre-smartphone of course - just had to go without pb.com and cricket results for a few days.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098

    If we can get past Germany then I'd definitely rather be in our half of the draw than the other half.

    Yes it's a doozy. I'm feeling it now and my money's going down. England. Value.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    My tip for Germany to win by more than 3 goals was pretty rubbish. Should have been for more than 3 goals overall.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

    Not on the data you linked too though.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585

    It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/


    I can't see that from the link - the 7 day average is still declining slowly.
    23/06 4,341
    22/06 4,040
    21/06 2,360
    18/06 4,214

    16/06 3,832
    15/06 3,432
    14/06 2,674
    11/06 4,142

    So the last two days have shown significant increases over the previous week.

    Not conclusive yet but its following the pattern of Portugal of a few weeks back.

    Spain has a higher case number than Portugal did but it also will have a higher level of vaccine protection.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,111

    It looks like infections in Spain might be starting to increase:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

    The WHO site has more up to date info (https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/es), however I'm sure you're right: they're right next to Portugal, and there have been clear signs of growth along the Southern coast.

    In their favour, they've *really* stepped up the pace of vaccinations. Eyeballing it, they're now at the same place the UK was around the middle of May.
This discussion has been closed.