*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metier
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.
Well, I'm not going to deny that a lot of the big cities are going to have problems. But small towns aren't completely out of the woods.
It just takes one kid coming home from visiting friends in Atlanta to spread it round his entire class, and then the entire school.
Which would normally be fine... but if granny is living at home and isn't vaccinated, it could get pretty ugly.
What's the lockdown/masking situation in, eg, LA? Have you all been released, possibly prematurely?
Yes, we have.
We're completely free here (except on public transport).
But we also had CV19 run through the City really badly over Christmas. There were seven day periods where more than 1% of the population tested positive for Covid, and real numbers will have been much higher.
We also have pretty high levels of vaccination, even in the Hispanic communities, and doctors roam the homeless encampments. My daughter (13) is double vaxxed, and so are more of her friends. Plus, it's all Moderna + Pfizer, so it's a little bit more effective than AZN.
So, while I can see a mini bump coming along, there simply aren't that many unvaccinated oldies for it to hammer.
Worrying though it is right now, I wonder if it may in the long term be a good thing that younger unvaxxed people are now catching and developing antibodies to the Delta variant. 1. It's the summer, and all the evidence suggests it's better to have a long fairly gentle simmer of cases in summer than a huge surge in winter, and 2. Delta already has some vaccine escape properties, and future variants will almost certainly evolve to escape immunity further, so having a pool of say 10% of the population who have been exposed to a more recent variant alongside the large proportion with enough immunity from vaccination to avoid serious illness and death might help us when the inevitable next big one (perhaps Delta+) comes along.
This surge is also an effective vax efficacy experiment. It is showing us in real time what the impact of each vaccine is on infection, hospitalisation and death. It means that when things finally do settle down, which they inevitably will, we will have more confidence than we would otherwise in what might happen next time there is a new variant or an uptick.
Latin America (ex-Chile) does look like a disaster zone though. Not so much a gentle simmer as a protracted rolling boil. Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Mexico show what might have been our fate had we gone for herd immunity via infection. I want to know why that region has done so badly for so long. I know there are high levels of obesity across the continent but it can't just be that.
I think the countries there are just rich enough to be able to count Covid deaths, and have them be more noticeable in a way that they wouldn't be in a poorer country that still had higher mortality generally from other causes, but not rich enough to act effectively to control the disease.
Some poorer nations also have a very low median age, which reduces the impact of the disease.
Worrying though it is right now, I wonder if it may in the long term be a good thing that younger unvaxxed people are now catching and developing antibodies to the Delta variant. 1. It's the summer, and all the evidence suggests it's better to have a long fairly gentle simmer of cases in summer than a huge surge in winter, and 2. Delta already has some vaccine escape properties, and future variants will almost certainly evolve to escape immunity further, so having a pool of say 10% of the population who have been exposed to a more recent variant alongside the large proportion with enough immunity from vaccination to avoid serious illness and death might help us when the inevitable next big one (perhaps Delta+) comes along.
This surge is also an effective vax efficacy experiment. It is showing us in real time what the impact of each vaccine is on infection, hospitalisation and death. It means that when things finally do settle down, which they inevitably will, we will have more confidence than we would otherwise in what might happen next time there is a new variant or an uptick.
Latin America (ex-Chile) does look like a disaster zone though. Not so much a gentle simmer as a protracted rolling boil. Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Mexico show what might have been our fate had we gone for herd immunity via infection. I want to know why that region has done so badly for so long. I know there are high levels of obesity across the continent but it can't just be that.
I think the countries there are just rich enough to be able to count Covid deaths, and have them be more noticeable in a way that they wouldn't be in a poorer country that still had higher mortality generally from other causes, but not rich enough to act effectively to control the disease.
They've also had a perfect storm of variants: Covid 1, then Brazil, now Delta, never really recovering from one before the next kicked in. Delta Plus will now rampage through the continent, with such low vaccination rates (10% fully vaxxed in Colombia) they have no protection
Awful
Also seasonality doesn't seem to have helped them - hot and cold, summer or winter, the virus ravages.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
Colombia es el tercer país del mundo con más muertes reportadas por COVID-19. Y está detrás de Brasil, que tiene 214 millones de habitantes, e India, con cerca de 1.400 millones. A TODAS LUCES ESTAMOS ENFRENTANDO UNA CATÁSTROFE DE PROPORCIONES HISTÓRICAS"
Peru has had deaths more than 300% above normal levels.
Worrying though it is right now, I wonder if it may in the long term be a good thing that younger unvaxxed people are now catching and developing antibodies to the Delta variant. 1. It's the summer, and all the evidence suggests it's better to have a long fairly gentle simmer of cases in summer than a huge surge in winter, and 2. Delta already has some vaccine escape properties, and future variants will almost certainly evolve to escape immunity further, so having a pool of say 10% of the population who have been exposed to a more recent variant alongside the large proportion with enough immunity from vaccination to avoid serious illness and death might help us when the inevitable next big one (perhaps Delta+) comes along.
This surge is also an effective vax efficacy experiment. It is showing us in real time what the impact of each vaccine is on infection, hospitalisation and death. It means that when things finally do settle down, which they inevitably will, we will have more confidence than we would otherwise in what might happen next time there is a new variant or an uptick.
Latin America (ex-Chile) does look like a disaster zone though. Not so much a gentle simmer as a protracted rolling boil. Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Mexico show what might have been our fate had we gone for herd immunity via infection. I want to know why that region has done so badly for so long. I know there are high levels of obesity across the continent but it can't just be that.
I think the countries there are just rich enough to be able to count Covid deaths, and have them be more noticeable in a way that they wouldn't be in a poorer country that still had higher mortality generally from other causes, but not rich enough to act effectively to control the disease.
Some poorer nations also have a very low median age, which reduces the impact of the disease.
Did we ever get a good explanation for why older people are so much more vulnerable?
*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metier
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.
Well, I'm not going to deny that a lot of the big cities are going to have problems. But small towns aren't completely out of the woods.
It just takes one kid coming home from visiting friends in Atlanta to spread it round his entire class, and then the entire school.
Which would normally be fine... but if granny is living at home and isn't vaccinated, it could get pretty ugly.
What's the lockdown/masking situation in, eg, LA? Have you all been released, possibly prematurely?
Yes, we have.
We're completely free here (except on public transport).
But we also had CV19 run through the City really badly over Christmas. There were seven day periods where more than 1% of the population tested positive for Covid, and real numbers will have been much higher.
We also have pretty high levels of vaccination, even in the Hispanic communities, and doctors roam the homeless encampments. My daughter (13) is double vaxxed, and so are more of her friends. Plus, it's all Moderna + Pfizer, so it's a little bit more effective than AZN.
So, while I can see a mini bump coming along, there simply aren't that many unvaccinated oldies for it to hammer.
Good news. And yet the vax rates are poor. 40% of black Americans? That's simply not good enough
And America as a whole is topping out at about 60%?
As contrarian says, America will be a test tube mixing herd immunity + freedom + vax refusal + Delta
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
The blame lies solely with the school. She (and her parents) were well within their right to petition the supreme court.
In California you get entered into a lottery if you take the vaccine, and that's led to an increase in take up. Indeed, vaccinations are beginning to speed up a little here.
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Having said that, isn't the standard timeline Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
Cases-hospitalisations is indeed about 7 days, but rather than thinking that cases had plateaued, we thought the rate of increase had reduced and stabilised (ie still growing exponentially, but slower than before).
Snazzy multicoloured graph (I coloured each week differently so as to make weekly artefacts easier to spot at a glance) of reported cases in England since the low point:
The weekly drumbeat is down to people choosing not to go for tests on weekends, or being sent from work, so the dashed black line shows the rolling 7-day average. Hospitalisations tend to follow the 7-day average rather than being perfectly lagged from the specific cases on the day, as if you leave it later or go earlier, the time between infection and case specimen date will vary.
To follow on from this:
This is a bit of a rough visualisation of the issue.
The translucent bars are the cases in England against a given day. The darker bars are the hospitalisations in England seven days later. As we can see, as cases climbed, hospitalisations climbed much slower. And the levelling out in the most recent week comes off the highest level of cases yet.
Maybe I'm misreading this -> but how have you got hospitalizations for the future? E.g. bar for 19 June -> hospitalizations for 26 June?
No, you're quite right; I cocked up trying to do it too fast.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
It's the sign of a failing society when supreme court justices are getting involved in such trivial disputes as this.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
The blame lies solely with the school. She (and her parents) were well within their right to petition the supreme court.
It was an extremely important free speech case as it defines where the limits and boundaries are.
Worrying though it is right now, I wonder if it may in the long term be a good thing that younger unvaxxed people are now catching and developing antibodies to the Delta variant. 1. It's the summer, and all the evidence suggests it's better to have a long fairly gentle simmer of cases in summer than a huge surge in winter, and 2. Delta already has some vaccine escape properties, and future variants will almost certainly evolve to escape immunity further, so having a pool of say 10% of the population who have been exposed to a more recent variant alongside the large proportion with enough immunity from vaccination to avoid serious illness and death might help us when the inevitable next big one (perhaps Delta+) comes along.
This surge is also an effective vax efficacy experiment. It is showing us in real time what the impact of each vaccine is on infection, hospitalisation and death. It means that when things finally do settle down, which they inevitably will, we will have more confidence than we would otherwise in what might happen next time there is a new variant or an uptick.
Latin America (ex-Chile) does look like a disaster zone though. Not so much a gentle simmer as a protracted rolling boil. Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Mexico show what might have been our fate had we gone for herd immunity via infection. I want to know why that region has done so badly for so long. I know there are high levels of obesity across the continent but it can't just be that.
I think the countries there are just rich enough to be able to count Covid deaths, and have them be more noticeable in a way that they wouldn't be in a poorer country that still had higher mortality generally from other causes, but not rich enough to act effectively to control the disease.
Some poorer nations also have a very low median age, which reduces the impact of the disease.
Did we ever get a good explanation for why older people are so much more vulnerable?
Fact of life. Your immune system just isn’t as goo the older you get. The outcomes for Covid are no different across the ages to say flu, when adjusted for intrinsic severity.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
You LOVE these DANCING PLANES. Imagine if someone saw the DANCING PLANES in the dark, they might think these INCREDIBLE RUSSIAN DANCING PLANES were UFOS! HAHAHAHAH HOW STUPID
Worrying though it is right now, I wonder if it may in the long term be a good thing that younger unvaxxed people are now catching and developing antibodies to the Delta variant. 1. It's the summer, and all the evidence suggests it's better to have a long fairly gentle simmer of cases in summer than a huge surge in winter, and 2. Delta already has some vaccine escape properties, and future variants will almost certainly evolve to escape immunity further, so having a pool of say 10% of the population who have been exposed to a more recent variant alongside the large proportion with enough immunity from vaccination to avoid serious illness and death might help us when the inevitable next big one (perhaps Delta+) comes along.
This surge is also an effective vax efficacy experiment. It is showing us in real time what the impact of each vaccine is on infection, hospitalisation and death. It means that when things finally do settle down, which they inevitably will, we will have more confidence than we would otherwise in what might happen next time there is a new variant or an uptick.
Latin America (ex-Chile) does look like a disaster zone though. Not so much a gentle simmer as a protracted rolling boil. Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Mexico show what might have been our fate had we gone for herd immunity via infection. I want to know why that region has done so badly for so long. I know there are high levels of obesity across the continent but it can't just be that.
I think the countries there are just rich enough to be able to count Covid deaths, and have them be more noticeable in a way that they wouldn't be in a poorer country that still had higher mortality generally from other causes, but not rich enough to act effectively to control the disease.
Some poorer nations also have a very low median age, which reduces the impact of the disease.
Did we ever get a good explanation for why older people are so much more vulnerable?
Fact of life. Your immune system just isn’t as goo the older you get. The outcomes for Covid are no different across the ages to say flu, when adjusted for intrinsic severity.
But wasn't it notably different during the flu pandemic at the end of WWI, when it was young people who were particularly badly affected?
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
It's the sign of a failing society when supreme court justices are getting involved in such trivial disputes as this.
That seems a bit over the top. Haven't many important legal concepts been crystallised by senior courts from cases which, in themselves, are pretty minor or petty?
Edit: I was reading about one recently where a lawyer, on behalf of an essentially penniless person, took a case about a snail in a bottle all the way to the Supreme Court, which was apparently a very important case establishing principles around negligence.
Might be better to test these things out on petty stuff, frankly.
Worrying though it is right now, I wonder if it may in the long term be a good thing that younger unvaxxed people are now catching and developing antibodies to the Delta variant. 1. It's the summer, and all the evidence suggests it's better to have a long fairly gentle simmer of cases in summer than a huge surge in winter, and 2. Delta already has some vaccine escape properties, and future variants will almost certainly evolve to escape immunity further, so having a pool of say 10% of the population who have been exposed to a more recent variant alongside the large proportion with enough immunity from vaccination to avoid serious illness and death might help us when the inevitable next big one (perhaps Delta+) comes along.
This surge is also an effective vax efficacy experiment. It is showing us in real time what the impact of each vaccine is on infection, hospitalisation and death. It means that when things finally do settle down, which they inevitably will, we will have more confidence than we would otherwise in what might happen next time there is a new variant or an uptick.
Latin America (ex-Chile) does look like a disaster zone though. Not so much a gentle simmer as a protracted rolling boil. Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Mexico show what might have been our fate had we gone for herd immunity via infection. I want to know why that region has done so badly for so long. I know there are high levels of obesity across the continent but it can't just be that.
I think the countries there are just rich enough to be able to count Covid deaths, and have them be more noticeable in a way that they wouldn't be in a poorer country that still had higher mortality generally from other causes, but not rich enough to act effectively to control the disease.
Some poorer nations also have a very low median age, which reduces the impact of the disease.
Did we ever get a good explanation for why older people are so much more vulnerable?
Fact of life. Your immune system just isn’t as goo the older you get. The outcomes for Covid are no different across the ages to say flu, when adjusted for intrinsic severity.
It is also that the rest of you is not as good, surely (co-morbidities).
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
You LOVE these DANCING PLANES. Imagine if someone saw the DANCING PLANES in the dark, they might think these INCREDIBLE RUSSIAN DANCING PLANES were UFOS! HAHAHAHAH HOW STUPID
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
To be fair I can see why you were taken in by the DANCING PLANES video which you linked earlier, to disprove UFOs
I mean, you have to wait until at least the 9th second of the video, before it looks laughably ridiculous
I also recommend
1:42
when they hang in the sky in a way that only a clown would believe
3:07
where they hover over sand without causing any disturbance, with such brilliant fakery you need an IQ over 12 to spot it
and
7:52
where they land and people with an actual brain can clearly see the video is a mix of CGI and remote control toys which are about 3 inches long
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
You LOVE these DANCING PLANES. Imagine if someone saw the DANCING PLANES in the dark, they might think these INCREDIBLE RUSSIAN DANCING PLANES were UFOS! HAHAHAHAH HOW STUPID
You're sounding like a 9/11 truther.
DecrepiterJohnL posted the DANCING PLANES video earlier, as proof of advanced military technology that might fool people into thinking they were seeing UFOs; he was apparently unaware the video is a comical fake
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
It's the sign of a failing society when supreme court justices are getting involved in such trivial disputes as this.
That seems a bit over the top. Haven't many important legal concepts been crystallised by senior courts from cases which, in themselves, are pretty minor or petty?
Edit: I was reading about one recently where a lawyer, on behalf of an essentially penniless person, took a case about a snail in a bottle all the way to the Supreme Court, which was apparently a very important case establishing principles around negligence.
Might be better to test these things out on petty stuff, frankly.
Duh, meant House Lords not Supreme Court, modern parlance just got muddled in my head.
Not expecting JCVI decision on vaccinating children very soon, I hear - demand among adults in UK is so high that scientists can take their time to gather more evidence before issuing advice.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
It's the sign of a failing society when supreme court justices are getting involved in such trivial disputes as this.
That seems a bit over the top. Haven't many important legal concepts been crystallised by senior courts from cases which, in themselves, are pretty minor or petty?
Edit: I was reading about one recently where a lawyer, on behalf of an essentially penniless person, took a case about a snail in a bottle all the way to the Supreme Court, which was apparently a very important case establishing principles around negligence.
Might be better to test these things out on petty stuff, frankly.
Duh, meant House Lords not Supreme Court, modern parlance just got muddled in my head.
*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metier
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.
Well, I'm not going to deny that a lot of the big cities are going to have problems. But small towns aren't completely out of the woods.
It just takes one kid coming home from visiting friends in Atlanta to spread it round his entire class, and then the entire school.
Which would normally be fine... but if granny is living at home and isn't vaccinated, it could get pretty ugly.
What's the lockdown/masking situation in, eg, LA? Have you all been released, possibly prematurely?
On the subject of Delta variant in the US there are now 6 states and 1 territories with cases rising according to the NYT tracker, witch uses a 14 day comparison, (with fully vaccinated % from Blumberg tracker in brackets)
*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metier
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.
Well, I'm not going to deny that a lot of the big cities are going to have problems. But small towns aren't completely out of the woods.
It just takes one kid coming home from visiting friends in Atlanta to spread it round his entire class, and then the entire school.
Which would normally be fine... but if granny is living at home and isn't vaccinated, it could get pretty ugly.
What's the lockdown/masking situation in, eg, LA? Have you all been released, possibly prematurely?
Yes, we have.
We're completely free here (except on public transport).
But we also had CV19 run through the City really badly over Christmas. There were seven day periods where more than 1% of the population tested positive for Covid, and real numbers will have been much higher.
We also have pretty high levels of vaccination, even in the Hispanic communities, and doctors roam the homeless encampments. My daughter (13) is double vaxxed, and so are more of her friends. Plus, it's all Moderna + Pfizer, so it's a little bit more effective than AZN.
So, while I can see a mini bump coming along, there simply aren't that many unvaccinated oldies for it to hammer.
Good news. And yet the vax rates are poor. 40% of black Americans? That's simply not good enough
And America as a whole is topping out at about 60%?
As contrarian says, America will be a test tube mixing herd immunity + freedom + vax refusal + Delta
The US is still "taking their vaccines".
Outside the deep South, vaccines continue to be jabbed into arms. In California, its 60% of the population with at least one jab, and 45% who are double jabbed, and the line continues to be up and to the right.
When Delta hits hard in some of these communities, it will spur vaccine uptake.
*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metier
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.
Well, I'm not going to deny that a lot of the big cities are going to have problems. But small towns aren't completely out of the woods.
It just takes one kid coming home from visiting friends in Atlanta to spread it round his entire class, and then the entire school.
Which would normally be fine... but if granny is living at home and isn't vaccinated, it could get pretty ugly.
What's the lockdown/masking situation in, eg, LA? Have you all been released, possibly prematurely?
On the subject of Delta variant in the US there are now 6 states and 1 territories with cases rising according to the NYT tracker, witch uses a 14 day comparison, (with fully vaccinated % from Blumberg tracker in brackets)
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Having said that, isn't the standard timeline Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
Cases-hospitalisations is indeed about 7 days, but rather than thinking that cases had plateaued, we thought the rate of increase had reduced and stabilised (ie still growing exponentially, but slower than before).
Snazzy multicoloured graph (I coloured each week differently so as to make weekly artefacts easier to spot at a glance) of reported cases in England since the low point:
The weekly drumbeat is down to people choosing not to go for tests on weekends, or being sent from work, so the dashed black line shows the rolling 7-day average. Hospitalisations tend to follow the 7-day average rather than being perfectly lagged from the specific cases on the day, as if you leave it later or go earlier, the time between infection and case specimen date will vary.
To follow on from this:
This is a bit of a rough visualisation of the issue.
The translucent bars are the cases in England against a given day. The darker bars are the hospitalisations in England seven days later. As we can see, as cases climbed, hospitalisations climbed much slower. And the levelling out in the most recent week comes off the highest level of cases yet.
Maybe I'm misreading this -> but how have you got hospitalizations for the future? E.g. bar for 19 June -> hospitalizations for 26 June?
No, you're quite right; I cocked up trying to do it too fast.
Revised graph attached:
Thanks - this is a brilliant visualization technique. Trying to work out if you need consistent scale or log scale for it to be comparable...
My reading would be still fair bit of growth to come in the purple hospitalizations.
Technically it isn't comedy or fakery, it is a flight simulator for radio controlled aircraft.
(Aerofly RC 8)
That video has had 45 million views! I can't believe there is so much enthusiasm for remote controlled flight simulation?
Of course there isn't
I bet most of those 45m have looked at that and thought "OMG Russian planes can dance!"
EDIT: in a world of deepfakes getting better and better, this suggests a looming problem. Soon there will be videos of dancing planes that look completely real.... Will nations menace each other with deepfake weaponry? Why not?
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Technically it isn't comedy or fakery, it is a flight simulator for radio controlled aircraft.
(Aerofly RC 8)
That video has had 45 million views! I can't believe there is so much enthusiasm for remote controlled flight simuation?
Of course there isn't
I bet most of those 45m have looked at that and thought "OMG Russian planes can dance!"
Maybe all 45m looked at it and thought OMG, I can't believe someone took this as real...
It might actually be physically possible with a real RC aircraft as they do tend to have a ridiculous power to weight ratio. Alternatively, someone might have just messed with the parameters.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Even if they're double jabbed? (Which of course 50% more of them are, than in Germany...)
It's ridiculous, the amount of fighting the last war that's been going on in this pandemic is astounding.
Spoken like only the leader of a country not dependent on summer tourism could.
She's got a point however. Would you want loads of Delta-sodden Brits coming to your town in the next few weeks? No, not unless your job depends entirely on British tourism
But then, many do. A close friend of mine is on the Algarve and she says it is catastrophic there. Almost no tourists, businesses closing forever
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
I wonder what planet anyone talking about UEFA officials is on.
Cases up 44% week-on-week, and deaths up 53%. So much for the link having been broken.
How many bloody times do we have to keep going through the same cycle before people learn better?
The last time the UK was at 15k cases a day deaths were at about 450 a day. What are they now?
To be fair, there's a lag between cases and deaths. Nevertheless, it is *extremely* encouraging that hospital bed usage (in England at least) is growing dramatically slower than case numbers.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Even if they're double jabbed? (Which of course 50% more of them are, than in Germany...)
It's ridiculous, the amount of fighting the last war that's been going on in this pandemic is astounding.
Considering they're miles behind in vaccinations it's not that ridiculous.
Though what would make more sense is shutting down Schengen.
Schengen has been largely suspended.
Haven't they just said that it's going to be restored at the end of the month?
Delta spreading in the UK is no big deal as we're pretty much done with vaccinations and have double dosed all the vulnerable. That's not the case in Germany or the EU generally.
I wonder what planet anyone talking about UEFA officials is on.
Cases up 44% week-on-week, and deaths up 53%. So much for the link having been broken.
How many bloody times do we have to keep going through the same cycle before people learn better?
The last time the UK was at 15k cases a day deaths were at about 450 a day. What are they now?
To be fair, there's a lag between cases and deaths. Nevertheless, it is *extremely* encouraging that hospital bed usage (in England at least) is growing dramatically slower than case numbers.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
On the one hand, this is very impressive. Justice is open to everyone. Shades of the Winslow Boy. But really WTF. Hasn't the Supreme Court of the United States got better things to do? And the school! Couldn't the school have given her a stern telling off and a warning that a reporter would dredge up her social media activity in 30 years time to undermine her White House run?
In the US, freedom of speech issues are considered important enough for its highest courts to take up. I wish the UK would take this right more seriously.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Even if they're double jabbed? (Which of course 50% more of them are, than in Germany...)
It's ridiculous, the amount of fighting the last war that's been going on in this pandemic is astounding.
Spoken like only the leader of a country not dependent on summer tourism could.
She's got a point however. Would you want loads of Delta-sodden Brits coming to your town in the next few weeks?
There's a reason we're finding "lots of Delta-sodden Brits":
The UK positivity rate is a lot lower than most EU countries.
This has been the case throughout the Spring (and variant sequencing capacity in most of the EU is also still very limited, IIRC.) You're less likely to find problems if you're not looking very hard for them.
Latest: UK government has quietly exempted travellers attending the Climate Change #COP26 conference, Global Education Summit & ‘related events’ from both quarantine and testing
(This is in addition to exempting 3,000 UEFA ‘VIPs’ from quarantine too)
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
I wonder what planet anyone talking about UEFA officials is on.
Cases up 44% week-on-week, and deaths up 53%. So much for the link having been broken.
How many bloody times do we have to keep going through the same cycle before people learn better?
The last time the UK was at 15k cases a day deaths were at about 450 a day. What are they now?
To be fair, there's a lag between cases and deaths. Nevertheless, it is *extremely* encouraging that hospital bed usage (in England at least) is growing dramatically slower than case numbers.
More importantly Rob is taking the down slope.
For the comparable case numbers in September deaths 7 day average was 47.
Latest: UK government has quietly exempted travellers attending the Climate Change #COP26 conference, Global Education Summit & ‘related events’ from both quarantine and testing
(This is in addition to exempting 3,000 UEFA ‘VIPs’ from quarantine too)
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Even if they're double jabbed? (Which of course 50% more of them are, than in Germany...)
It's ridiculous, the amount of fighting the last war that's been going on in this pandemic is astounding.
Spoken like only the leader of a country not dependent on summer tourism could.
She's got a point however. Would you want loads of Delta-sodden Brits coming to your town in the next few weeks?
There's a reason we're finding "lots of Delta-sodden Brits":
The UK positivity rate is a lot lower than most EU countries.
This has been the case throughout the Spring (and variant sequencing capacity in most of the EU is also still very limited, IIRC.) You're less likely to find problems if you're not looking very hard for them.
We're reaching the point where maybe we should stop testing.
A million tests per day must be costing billions that could be better put to some other use. We don't spend billions testing for the flu and with the vulnerable vaccinated that's basically what this is now.
I wonder what planet anyone talking about UEFA officials is on.
Cases up 44% week-on-week, and deaths up 53%. So much for the link having been broken.
How many bloody times do we have to keep going through the same cycle before people learn better?
The last time the UK was at 15k cases a day deaths were at about 450 a day. What are they now?
To be fair, there's a lag between cases and deaths. Nevertheless, it is *extremely* encouraging that hospital bed usage (in England at least) is growing dramatically slower than case numbers.
More importantly Rob is taking the down slope.
For the comparable case numbers in September deaths 7 day average was 47.
I was looking at the upward slope, but before the wave in December/January.
Latest: UK government has quietly exempted travellers attending the Climate Change #COP26 conference, Global Education Summit & ‘related events’ from both quarantine and testing
(This is in addition to exempting 3,000 UEFA ‘VIPs’ from quarantine too)
Quietly exempted? These exemptions have always been there.
I never know quite what is meant when quietly is used in these contexts. Sometimes you see 'quietly announced' regs, guidance or whatever - I mean, if something is announced at what point does it become quiet?
Latest: UK government has quietly exempted travellers attending the Climate Change #COP26 conference, Global Education Summit & ‘related events’ from both quarantine and testing
(This is in addition to exempting 3,000 UEFA ‘VIPs’ from quarantine too)
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Even if they're double jabbed? (Which of course 50% more of them are, than in Germany...)
It's ridiculous, the amount of fighting the last war that's been going on in this pandemic is astounding.
Spoken like only the leader of a country not dependent on summer tourism could.
She's got a point however. Would you want loads of Delta-sodden Brits coming to your town in the next few weeks?
There's a reason we're finding "lots of Delta-sodden Brits":
The UK positivity rate is a lot lower than most EU countries.
This has been the case throughout the Spring (and variant sequencing capacity in most of the EU is also still very limited, IIRC.) You're less likely to find problems if you're not looking very hard for them.
We're reaching the point where maybe we should stop testing.
A million tests per day must be costing billions that could be better put to some other use. We don't spend billions testing for the flu and with the vulnerable vaccinated that's basically what this is now.
If things proceed as we hope they will and the third wave effectively turns out to be something of a damp squib, then there's certainly a case for it. OTOH, the authorities may want to be keeping the test and trace apparatus running, and encourage people to keep using it, in case more nasty variants.
Angela Merkel has said travellers from the UK should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the EU, as the union’s agency for disease control forecast that the Delta variant of Covid will account for 90% of cases in member states by the end of August.
Even if they're double jabbed? (Which of course 50% more of them are, than in Germany...)
It's ridiculous, the amount of fighting the last war that's been going on in this pandemic is astounding.
Spoken like only the leader of a country not dependent on summer tourism could.
She's got a point however. Would you want loads of Delta-sodden Brits coming to your town in the next few weeks?
There's a reason we're finding "lots of Delta-sodden Brits":
The UK positivity rate is a lot lower than most EU countries.
This has been the case throughout the Spring (and variant sequencing capacity in most of the EU is also still very limited, IIRC.) You're less likely to find problems if you're not looking very hard for them.
We're reaching the point where maybe we should stop testing.
We're reaching the point where morons really should shut up.
Latest: UK government has quietly exempted travellers attending the Climate Change #COP26 conference, Global Education Summit & ‘related events’ from both quarantine and testing
(This is in addition to exempting 3,000 UEFA ‘VIPs’ from quarantine too)
Quietly exempted? These exemptions have always been there.
What for UEFA VIP's?
Yep, it's all on the gov.uk website where you can see the requirements for who needs to quarantine etc. Some journalists think things are new if they have only just heard of it.
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Having said that, isn't the standard timeline Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
Cases-hospitalisations is indeed about 7 days, but rather than thinking that cases had plateaued, we thought the rate of increase had reduced and stabilised (ie still growing exponentially, but slower than before).
Snazzy multicoloured graph (I coloured each week differently so as to make weekly artefacts easier to spot at a glance) of reported cases in England since the low point:
The weekly drumbeat is down to people choosing not to go for tests on weekends, or being sent from work, so the dashed black line shows the rolling 7-day average. Hospitalisations tend to follow the 7-day average rather than being perfectly lagged from the specific cases on the day, as if you leave it later or go earlier, the time between infection and case specimen date will vary.
To follow on from this:
This is a bit of a rough visualisation of the issue.
The translucent bars are the cases in England against a given day. The darker bars are the hospitalisations in England seven days later. As we can see, as cases climbed, hospitalisations climbed much slower. And the levelling out in the most recent week comes off the highest level of cases yet.
Maybe I'm misreading this -> but how have you got hospitalizations for the future? E.g. bar for 19 June -> hospitalizations for 26 June?
No, you're quite right; I cocked up trying to do it too fast.
Revised graph attached:
Thanks - this is a brilliant visualization technique. Trying to work out if you need consistent scale or log scale for it to be comparable...
My reading would be still fair bit of growth to come in the purple hospitalizations.
I'm sure there is. But numbers in hospital growing at 19% per week, is not that big a deal. We get to everyone vaccinated long before the hospitals get anywhere near overflowing.
I wonder what planet anyone talking about UEFA officials is on.
Cases up 44% week-on-week, and deaths up 53%. So much for the link having been broken.
How many bloody times do we have to keep going through the same cycle before people learn better?
The last time the UK was at 15k cases a day deaths were at about 450 a day. What are they now?
To be fair, there's a lag between cases and deaths. Nevertheless, it is *extremely* encouraging that hospital bed usage (in England at least) is growing dramatically slower than case numbers.
More importantly Rob is taking the down slope.
For the comparable case numbers in September deaths 7 day average was 47.
I was looking at the upward slope, but before the wave in December/January.
7 day average hasn't hit November/Dec numbers yet.
Comments
He needs subbing but too late anyway
We're completely free here (except on public transport).
But we also had CV19 run through the City really badly over Christmas. There were seven day periods where more than 1% of the population tested positive for Covid, and real numbers will have been much higher.
We also have pretty high levels of vaccination, even in the Hispanic communities, and doctors roam the homeless encampments. My daughter (13) is double vaxxed, and so are more of her friends. Plus, it's all Moderna + Pfizer, so it's a little bit more effective than AZN.
So, while I can see a mini bump coming along, there simply aren't that many unvaccinated oldies for it to hammer.
Awful
Also seasonality doesn't seem to have helped them - hot and cold, summer or winter, the virus ravages.
I agree that obesity must be a factor
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7753730/
See: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
And America as a whole is topping out at about 60%?
As contrarian says, America will be a test tube mixing herd immunity + freedom + vax refusal + Delta
In California you get entered into a lottery if you take the vaccine, and that's led to an increase in take up. Indeed, vaccinations are beginning to speed up a little here.
Revised graph attached:
One more hour, or 15 more overs, whichever happens later.
Lol India won't be hurrying through to yield extra overs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_Cgxy7N-V0
You LOVE these DANCING PLANES. Imagine if someone saw the DANCING PLANES in the dark, they might think these INCREDIBLE RUSSIAN DANCING PLANES were UFOS! HAHAHAHAH HOW STUPID
Edit: I was reading about one recently where a lawyer, on behalf of an essentially penniless person, took a case about a snail in a bottle all the way to the Supreme Court, which was apparently a very important case establishing principles around negligence.
Might be better to test these things out on petty stuff, frankly.
I mean, you have to wait until at least the 9th second of the video, before it looks laughably ridiculous
I also recommend
1:42
when they hang in the sky in a way that only a clown would believe
3:07
where they hover over sand without causing any disturbance, with such brilliant fakery you need an IQ over 12 to spot it
and
7:52
where they land and people with an actual brain can clearly see the video is a mix of CGI and remote control toys which are about 3 inches long
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_Cgxy7N-V0
Last 16 v second in Group F
QF v Sweden/Ukraine
SF v Netherlands/Czech Republic/Denmark/Wales
Much better than Croatia:
Last 16 v Spain
QF v first in Group F or Switzerland
SF v Italy/Austria/Belgium/third in Group F
Story @theipaper: https://t.co/cwxjCLhVJV
Sweden 1.7
Poland 6.6
Draw 3.8
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.183116154
To be fair to Decrepiter, I did look at that video for about a minute, in amazement, before it became abundantly clear it was comedic fakery
It is actually cited in an apparently sensible website, too, so he can take some solace there:
https://fighterjetsworld.com/air/fighter-jets-videos/spectacular-videos-of-rc-mikoyan-mig-29-ovt-vectored-thrust-demo/15573/
Oklahoma +68% (37.4%)
Missouri +45% (38.1%)
Arkansas +42% (33.4%)
Guam +26% (51.3%)
Alaska +20% (41.8%)
Utah +15% (36.5%)
New Mexico +12% (52.5%)
US Av -21% (45.3%)
So 5 of the 7 are below the US average, but on the other hand of the 10 states/territories with the lowest Vaccination rates only one is rising.
Outside the deep South, vaccines continue to be jabbed into arms. In California, its 60% of the population with at least one jab, and 45% who are double jabbed, and the line continues to be up and to the right.
When Delta hits hard in some of these communities, it will spur vaccine uptake.
Can't see Portugal shipping 4 mind.
Luck, in this case, being "did Delta arrive in Small Town, AK before or after school ended."
(Aerofly RC 8)
My reading would be still fair bit of growth to come in the purple hospitalizations.
Of course there isn't
I bet most of those 45m have looked at that and thought "OMG Russian planes can dance!"
EDIT: in a world of deepfakes getting better and better, this suggests a looming problem. Soon there will be videos of dancing planes that look completely real.... Will nations menace each other with deepfake weaponry? Why not?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/23/all-uk-arrivals-in-eu-should-be-quarantined-says-angela-merkel
Even if they're double jabbed? (Which of course 50% more of them are, than in Germany...)
Cases up 44% week-on-week, and deaths up 53%. So much for the link having been broken.
How many bloody times do we have to keep going through the same cycle before people learn better?
Onwards, Britons, to the sunbeds of the Balearics
It might actually be physically possible with a real RC aircraft as they do tend to have a ridiculous power to weight ratio. Alternatively, someone might have just messed with the parameters.
Which would shake up the draw somewhat.
Specifically a Spain England QF potentially.
7 day average for deaths is 14.
Average deaths per day in a normal year: 1644
Covid deaths aren't even 1% of normal deaths.
Though what would make more sense is shutting down Schengen.
But then, many do. A close friend of mine is on the Algarve and she says it is catastrophic there. Almost no tourists, businesses closing forever
The UK positivity rate is a lot lower than most EU countries.
Delta spreading in the UK is no big deal as we're pretty much done with vaccinations and have double dosed all the vulnerable. That's not the case in Germany or the EU generally.
At this rate she will be 16 before I see her again. Maybe
on digital channel 25.
Latest: UK government has quietly exempted travellers attending the Climate Change #COP26 conference, Global Education Summit & ‘related events’ from both quarantine and testing
(This is in addition to exempting 3,000 UEFA ‘VIPs’ from quarantine too)
Wow. #OneRuleForOne...
https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1407755840204034052?s=20
For the comparable case numbers in September deaths 7 day average was 47.
A million tests per day must be costing billions that could be better put to some other use. We don't spend billions testing for the flu and with the vulnerable vaccinated that's basically what this is now.
Sweden, Ukraine or (and it's very unlikely) Finland.
Our half, not so much.
Have we really reached the point where people shouldn't say anything, in case anyone draws a moronic inference?