Today’s top tip – Don’t make an enemy of Dom Cummings – politicalbetting.com
Today’s top tip – Don’t make an enemy of Dom Cummings – politicalbetting.com
Today’s newspapers make their main headlines the latest revelations by the prime minister’s former chief adviser Dominic Cummings.
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"The term that Dom attributes to the PM of “totally hopeless” is going to be a difficult one to shake off."
Is it.....the PM was called totally unsuitable for the role a couple of weeks ago and nobody cared and we have moved on. Under the pressure of pandemic, I am sure lots of people in and around government said lots of things. Most people have said something along the lines of FFS, he's f##ked it up, dickhead, of somebody they work with at some point.
I think we all know Tony Blair said far worse about Gordon Brown on a regular basis.
The public seem to cut the government a fair bit of slack of their initial handling. The media re-treading this takes away from what they should be focusing on how we got another 4 week delay, not closing the border, the vaccine roll out slowing (not bringing back AZN online) and also if the data really does support this 4 week i.e. are SAGE models bollocks.
Big Dom 7hrs nuclear bomb drop of a few weeks ago didn't impact the Tory polling at all....the delay looks like it has. But all the focus on who said what naughty word about whom 12+ months ago, crowds out a closer examination of the delay.
The REAL problem for the Prime Minister re: his falling out with his former advisor, is the drip-drip-drip-drip of a leaky faucet. And the feeling that something is amiss with the plumbing, the pressure is building, the leakage is getting worse, and the whole works might start spewing at any moment.
Now Boris is a past master of doing the fandango on the cusp of the volcano. This time, however, he's essentially added an extra degree of difficulty to everything he does. Sorta like a tightrope walker having to deal with a hornet buzzing around his head.
Yet C&A shoppers and voters are affluent, educated and successful enough to be truly disgruntled when they feel it is warranted. And their are times when they are willing to throw over the habit AND habits of the past - to take a flyer, have a fling, and choose a brand new look.
Chesham and Amersham - Serving Discerning Electors Since 1974
Seattle Times ($) - First Asian giant hornet sighting of 2021 reported near Marysville [Washington]
The year’s first Asian giant hornet sighting in the nation was reported in Snohomish County, entomologists with state and federal agencies confirmed Wednesday.
Officials said the hornet, which had died, was found by a resident near Marysville. The resident alerted authorities June 4 by submitting a report through the Washington State Department of Agriculture’s online Hornet Watch Report Form, officials said. WSDA retrieved the dried remains of the male hornet on June 8, according to a statement from the state agency.
The sighting was the first to be recorded in Snohomish County, and does not appear to be linked to Asian giant hornets previously observed in Canada and Whatcom County in 2019 and 2020. In October 2020, WSDA successfully eradicated a nest in Blaine, Whatcom County, removing 98 worker hornets. Several queens were also destroyed, WSDA said.
Sven Spichiger, WSDA managing entomologist, emphasized during a Wednesday morning news conference that a single specimen does not necessarily indicate a larger population of the hornets.
Due to the Marysville specimen’s dry condition and the timing of its discovery — males typically don’t show up until July at the earliest, said WSDA — entomologists hypothesized that the hornet might have been a hitchhiker on globally traded products or could have been alive during an earlier season but not found until this year.
“The find is perplexing because it is too early for a male to emerge. Last year, the first males emerged in late July, which was earlier than expected,” Dr. Osama El-Lissy, deputy administrator for the USDA Plant Protection and Quarantine program, said in WSDA’s statement. “However, we will work with WSDA to survey the area to verify whether a population exists in Snohomish County.”
Because the Blaine specimen looks different from those found in Whatcom County and lacks the distinctive orange-yellow stripes on the abdomen, Spichiger said it was subjected to DNA testing and found to have different genetic material than the earlier specimens.
“There really isn’t enough information to speculate on how it got here or when it got here,” he said.
Spichiger said the department would respond by increasing the number and geographical reach of traps set this year.
He and other WSDA officials said it’s more important than ever for people to keep an eye out for Asian giant hornets, report possible sightings and get involved in citizen trapping if inclined. . . .
SSI2 - And effete Easterners (like TimT) are moaning about the multi-state 17-year cicada swarm!
No-one is surprised at ministers and advisors being stressed as anything, as a pandemic hit the country, nor are they surprised that the Health minister, in particular, was becoming overwhelmed by the situation.
How about taking a deep dive into the data, which shows there’s no exponential growth in cases at the moment, nor an explosion in hospitalisations, and try holding the government to account for extending the restrictions and apparently a coming shortage of vaccines?
I remember it happening to Jim Callaghan, to Margaret Thatcher, to John Major, to Tony Blair, to Theresa May.
One of the characteristics when the vehicle begins to wobble is that those on board enter denial that it's happening. There are examples of that on this forum.
I'm also old enough to remember false predictions of demise. Thatcher's fall was predicted a couple of years ahead of its event. Boris Johnson's demise has likewise been predicted before he even became leader.
He is a difficult one to call both because he's a political chameleon and because there may never have been such a slippery customer in Downing Street.
However, I do sense the wheels are wobbling. Too many things are beginning to go wrong for this to be airily dismissed as Westminster village tittle tattle.
As far as I can tell, Hancock has two core beliefs: self-belief, and centralisation. A very dangerous combination, especially when the emergency powers means he doesn't really have to bother about democracy very much.
If there's one minister who deserves to be sacked it's him.
“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”
Possibly the worst aspect of Dom Cummings intervention is that it makes Hancock safer in post.
He really is an extraordinarily unselfaware twat.
Edit - and I say that as somebody who is anything but a fan of Johnson or Hancock.
If you want to bring your second vaccine dose forward, but haven’t because you have to cancel your appointment first… you can use the new availability checker before you cancel to make sure you’ll get an appointment sooner #nhsdigital #COVIDVaccination #Covid19
https://twitter.com/fordie/status/1405281727761711109?s=20
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1405398461810368514?s=20
Behaving like a bad tempered vindictive jilted lover isn't the way to gain sympathy, credibility or believability.
The PM is no doubt a useless individual in many ways, and unsuited to the job in other ways. I'm sure ge can rant with the best of us.
A duplicitous disloyal publicity seeking ex confidante spreading shit harms. It harms the shit spreader first and the target(s) to a lesser extent.
Each installment becomes less effictive. This isn't the way to damage Johnson.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-australia-free-trade-agreement-negotiations-agreement-in-principle/uk-australia-fta-negotiations-agreement-in-principle
The real question is 'when?'.
It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.
Peak Boris has passed.
It does sound as if they’re having to make the effort to find arms to jab, as the younger groups don’t see it as particularly urgent - at least not until being vaccinated exempts them from quarantine, when they come back from a holiday.
Once everyone has been offered a jab, it will be:
Vaccinated = Test on arrival, free on negative result.
Unvaccinated = 10 days’ quarantine, two tests.
They have spent an enormous amount of money of a program which failed in its primary aim of greatly reducing the course of the pandemic.
And yet you have Ben Bradshaw MP who is repeatedly sounding a libertarian clarion: calling for travel and business to re-open. I know that he's very pro-European but his message on this is so much more refreshing than the boring barrister.
https://twitter.com/iamarman88/status/1405321358553223169
Mr. Doethur, disagree strongly. The advances in technology will make China something that has been written of in sci-fi but never seen before in this world. We see it already with social credit and that degree of technology and control will only increase.
This does not seem a value bet.
The opposition struggle because they appear like an AA meeting before you’re ready for it.
That’s Boris’s secret.
We will encourage flexible working and consult on making it the default unless employers have good reasons not to.
https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf
That may be a shorter time than you expect.
To come third:-
Greens 4/7
Labour 11/8
Liberal Democrats 16/1
Reform UK 33/1
Breakthrough Party 100/1
Conservatives 100/1
Freedom Alliance 100/1
Rejoin EU 100/1
LibDem vote share:-
Under 25% 50/1
25-30% 25/1
30-35% 3/1
35-40% 6/4
40-45% 7/4
45-50% 12/1
Over 50% 40/1
Is it worth looking at the third place market? Is Labour value, given the party came third in 2019 and second in 2017? Other bookmakers are available. In the absence of any polling data, I'm reluctant to get involved.
They should be on the TV morning, noon and night with stories of people who can say they’ve been let down by the government during the pandemic and slipped through the cracks of the various schemes. But they only ever speak to union members and public sector workers, who are pretty much all doing just fine...
When the extension legislation comes up next week, they need to propose an unreasonable amendment, as a reason to vote down the bill without it - and see if they can get it to fall with enough Tory libertarian rebels. But they won’t, because they really don’t understand how Parliamentary politics works.
So hoping Johnson gets a bloody nose tonight in C&A.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg
“Prevalence is increasing exponentially, driven by younger ages... and it appears to be doubling every 11 days. Clearly, that is bad news,” Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics, Imperial College London, told reporters.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-covid-latest-updates-epidemic-growing-travel-list-news-b941079.html
This might be personal. Ladbrokes and Corals (same ownership) seem to have decided recently they are better off without me. Or it could be that Ladbrokes' politics markets are there to create headlines rather than be played.
On topic, Mr O is right. We have a Labour Party which has rather lost it's raison d'être; the old idea of the vaguely, but not too stridently, marxist organisation ;for the people' ...... Methodism and Marx ........ has been overtaken by events. Our tragedy is that what looked like it's potential replacement, the party of Ashdown and Kennedy, was seduced by the idea of power under Clegg and eviscerated by Cameron.
What remains on the Left too often seems to be a rag-bag of assorted 'radicals'. Meanwhile the old idea of the Conservative party, the party of 'good chaps' still holds good, or fairly good, although it has itself been taken over, in large measure, by, as I've suggested before, the sort of person elected in 1918; 'hard-faced men who did well out of the War', plus a number of self-aggrandising mountebanks, for whom 'truth' is an elastic concept.
A furlong by a chain, so a strip of land 220 yards by 22 yards. The relative dimensions are important as the area was defined as the land tillable by one man and one ox in one day - a square "acre" wouldn't be, as there'd be too many turns.
Hectares may be more sensible, but how dull?!
@DPJHodges
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8h
This is the most uncomfortable I’ve seen Rishi Sunak in quite a while.
Sunak fans should pause and watch the clip Dan Hodges has there. Looking well under pressure over £10K bill for new boilers for every family.
1. Sunak is very good. Handles Neil's questions well, especially the first few aimed at putting him off
2. I get it now. GBN a spoof. A set that consists of corrugated walls with a few strips of Ali Express LEDs, not enough light, 1st week of graphic design school logo/captions and Andrew Neil's nipples.
In an ideal IDS world, mobile phones will be replaced by red telephone boxes and we'll all be driving around in our half timbered Morris Minors. The next reinvention might fulfill the Tory right's picture of what Britain, going forward will look like, and there might be enough red meat to keep the RedWall on board, hanging nonses and foreign terrorists will go down well, but when they finally arrive in the midst of IDS's wet dream it probably won't be what they thought they wanted.
The opposition to Johnson and his replacement are inside the Conservative Party. Just because they have a majority of 82 and an arrogant leader doesn't mean they won't bin him off for a calm and competent Chancellor. As they did Thatcher...
I don't expect a short term poll effect, people aren't interested in politics during the silly season, but there is lots of source material for future historians. When the history is written this will be heavily cited.
The existing measures in place to protect commercial tenants from eviction will be extended to 25 March 2022. This is to ensure that the sectors who are unable to open have enough time to come to an agreement with their landlord without the threat of eviction.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/eviction-protection-extended-for-businesses-most-in-need
We'd then have M&S and C&A
Johnson's third VVIP aircraft is currently being fitted out in Bordeaux. Despite Brexit.
The UK growth rate (not infection rate) has slowed for seven consecutive days.
Today’s seven-day average is up 31.8% on last week. Here’s how it’s fallen:
Wednesday: 66.0%
Thursday: 63.1%
Friday: 58.1%
Saturday: 52.4%
Sunday: 49.3%
Monday: 45.5%
Tuesday: 38.8%
Wednesday: 31.8%.....
Essentially this means that we’re still seeing an increase in new cases, which obviously isn’t ideal, but the rate of growth is far less steep than it was.
https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1405179451583959050?s=20
On Tuesday a whole group of parents started getting pinged on the Covid App to isolate. At a kids football match on Saturday one of the visiting team/parents had Covid and all those who were in the area were asked to isolate. All the kids who were there had to come home from school. I've not heard of any of them (parents or kids) testing positive yet but does seem to show the App is working. I think a lot of people had thought we were through it all and it has been quite a wake up call.
The other anecdote is much more worrying. Couple of parents I know were out in our local nature reserve. They met another family and one of their children was coughing. The parent said he just has a "touch of Covid". They thought they were joking but then it became clear that they were not. The child had Covid and they were out and about. I can't quite believe how stupid some people are.
It does back up the obvious picture of infections growing. I do wonder though from looking at the last 2 weeks data whether the pace of growth is declining.
The new car situation is a little different and long term demand looks weak. I got offered an allocation for a 992 GT3 Touring for 2022 delivery but I couldn't get near a 991 version a few years ago.
Good to see the Chancellor challenged over the costs of the “net zero” pledge, and what that might mean in practice.
The main thing that comes out, is how refreshing it is to hear long-form interviews with senior ministers, rather than seven-minute soundbites characterised by everyone shouting over each other.
If Neil can get an interview or two like this, a minister or opponent every week going forward, his programme (and his new channel) will add an awful lot of positives to the political discourse.
Even when he messes up life and death policy decisions his voters find reasons to forgive or excuse him.
I stand by my prediction that he will increase his government's majority at the next general election.
I would ask where our opposition is but, frankly, what's the point?
https://www.politico.eu/article/keir-starmer-uk-labour-faces-heads-or-tails-moment/
Neil is a dinosaur, asking the tired "how much will it cost" question not interested in "how much will it save" and "how much will doing nothing cost".
Normally governments lose seats but normal politics hasn't applied for the past decade and I see little reason it will restart now.
I'd say there's about a 40% chance of a 100+ majority right now.
It’s also fair to ask why the British consumer is being asked to contribute so much, when the same isn’t true of much larger countries such as the US and China. How many industrial jobs will be offshored as a result of this pledge?
One thing many people are not aware of is the split nature of the autumn winter wave. The North of England had a big October wave and then a similarly sized or smaller winter wave. The south of England had a modest October wave then an absolutely gigantic winter wave. London is the most pronounced of that.
So what we are seeing is Delta fading in the North West and not absolutely catching fire elsewhere. But there is still the possibility of an ignition.