Today’s top tip – Don’t make an enemy of Dom Cummings – politicalbetting.com

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Today’s top tip – Don’t make an enemy of Dom Cummings – politicalbetting.com

Today’s newspapers make their main headlines the latest revelations by the prime minister’s former chief adviser Dominic Cummings.

Read the full story here

Sunil_Prasannan

First like the Tories in C & A.

rcs1000

Second like Tories in C & A.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

Second like Tories in C & A.

Third like Dominic Cummings in Primark.

FrancisUrquhart

The media love this drama....they will spaff themselves silly at every little thing Big Dom drops. The public have shown so far to not give a rats arse.

"The term that Dom attributes to the PM of “totally hopeless” is going to be a difficult one to shake off."

Is it.....the PM was called totally unsuitable for the role a couple of weeks ago and nobody cared and we have moved on. Under the pressure of pandemic, I am sure lots of people in and around government said lots of things. Most people have said something along the lines of FFS, he's f##ked it up, dickhead, of somebody they work with at some point.

I think we all know Tony Blair said far worse about Gordon Brown on a regular basis.

Andy_JS

LDs were 16/1 with Betfair Exchange a couple of days ago in C&A. Now 6/1.

FrancisUrquhart

Actually the media attention on this actually story isn't as great for Labour as perhaps one thinks, as it totally takes away the narrative that the borders should have been closed earlier for arrivals from India. Instead the media is full of psycho-drama, being pushed by an individual in Big Dom that the public has shown they just don't believe or trust.

The public seem to cut the government a fair bit of slack of their initial handling. The media re-treading this takes away from what they should be focusing on how we got another 4 week delay, not closing the border, the vaccine roll out slowing (not bringing back AZN online) and also if the data really does support this 4 week i.e. are SAGE models bollocks.

Big Dom 7hrs nuclear bomb drop of a few weeks ago didn't impact the Tory polling at all....the delay looks like it has. But all the focus on who said what naughty word about whom 12+ months ago, crowds out a closer examination of the delay.

SeaShantyIrish2

The impact of the still-running Dominic Cummings soap opera upon by-election result in Chesham and Amersham, or in Batley and Spen, is NOT the real issue for Boris Johnson.

The REAL problem for the Prime Minister re: his falling out with his former advisor, is the drip-drip-drip-drip of a leaky faucet. And the feeling that something is amiss with the plumbing, the pressure is building, the leakage is getting worse, and the whole works might start spewing at any moment.

Now Boris is a past master of doing the fandango on the cusp of the volcano. This time, however, he's essentially added an extra degree of difficulty to everything he does. Sorta like a tightrope walker having to deal with a hornet buzzing around his head.

SeaShantyIrish2

Chesham and Amersham patrons are the most discerning of customers (and visa versa). They demand quality AND style. Typically, they prefer tradition over trend in making their sartorial and electoral selections.

Yet C&A shoppers and voters are affluent, educated and successful enough to be truly disgruntled when they feel it is warranted. And their are times when they are willing to throw over the habit AND habits of the past - to take a flyer, have a fling, and choose a brand new look.

Chesham and Amersham - Serving Discerning Electors Since 1974

SeaShantyIrish2

You thought COVID, Cummings, UAFs and Woke were trouble enough? Welcome to MURDER HORNETS!!!

Seattle Times ($) - First Asian giant hornet sighting of 2021 reported near Marysville [Washington]

The year’s first Asian giant hornet sighting in the nation was reported in Snohomish County, entomologists with state and federal agencies confirmed Wednesday.

Officials said the hornet, which had died, was found by a resident near Marysville. The resident alerted authorities June 4 by submitting a report through the Washington State Department of Agriculture’s online Hornet Watch Report Form, officials said. WSDA retrieved the dried remains of the male hornet on June 8, according to a statement from the state agency.

The sighting was the first to be recorded in Snohomish County, and does not appear to be linked to Asian giant hornets previously observed in Canada and Whatcom County in 2019 and 2020. In October 2020, WSDA successfully eradicated a nest in Blaine, Whatcom County, removing 98 worker hornets. Several queens were also destroyed, WSDA said.

Sven Spichiger, WSDA managing entomologist, emphasized during a Wednesday morning news conference that a single specimen does not necessarily indicate a larger population of the hornets.

Due to the Marysville specimen’s dry condition and the timing of its discovery — males typically don’t show up until July at the earliest, said WSDA — entomologists hypothesized that the hornet might have been a hitchhiker on globally traded products or could have been alive during an earlier season but not found until this year.

“The find is perplexing because it is too early for a male to emerge. Last year, the first males emerged in late July, which was earlier than expected,” Dr. Osama El-Lissy, deputy administrator for the USDA Plant Protection and Quarantine program, said in WSDA’s statement. “However, we will work with WSDA to survey the area to verify whether a population exists in Snohomish County.”

Because the Blaine specimen looks different from those found in Whatcom County and lacks the distinctive orange-yellow stripes on the abdomen, Spichiger said it was subjected to DNA testing and found to have different genetic material than the earlier specimens.

“There really isn’t enough information to speculate on how it got here or when it got here,” he said.

Spichiger said the department would respond by increasing the number and geographical reach of traps set this year.

He and other WSDA officials said it’s more important than ever for people to keep an eye out for Asian giant hornets, report possible sightings and get involved in citizen trapping if inclined. . . .

SSI2 - And effete Easterners (like TimT) are moaning about the multi-state 17-year cicada swarm!

SeaShantyIrish2

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Chesham and Amersham patrons are the most discerning of customers (and visa versa). They demand quality AND style. Typically, they prefer tradition over trend in making their sartorial and electoral selections.

Yet C&A shoppers and voters are affluent, educated and successful enough to be truly disgruntled when they feel it is warranted. And their are times when they are willing to throw over the habit AND habits of the past - to take a flyer, have a fling, and choose a brand new look.

Chesham and Amersham - Serving Discerning Electors Since 1974

The (mis)management of Chesham and Amersham sincerely regrets there unfortunate & illiterate typo.

Sandpit

Another great example of the media concentrating on the Village gossip, and not the wider picture.

No-one is surprised at ministers and advisors being stressed as anything, as a pandemic hit the country, nor are they surprised that the Health minister, in particular, was becoming overwhelmed by the situation.

How about taking a deep dive into the data, which shows there’s no exponential growth in cases at the moment, nor an explosion in hospitalisations, and try holding the government to account for extending the restrictions and apparently a coming shortage of vaccines?

rcs1000

Andy_JS said:

LDs were 16/1 with Betfair Exchange a couple of days ago in C&A. Now 6/1.

And at this price, I wouldn't be betting. They have always been a 10-15% chance, and if you get offered 20-1, you jump at it.

Cocky_cockney

I'm old enough to remember the wheels coming off several Governments.

I remember it happening to Jim Callaghan, to Margaret Thatcher, to John Major, to Tony Blair, to Theresa May.

One of the characteristics when the vehicle begins to wobble is that those on board enter denial that it's happening. There are examples of that on this forum.

I'm also old enough to remember false predictions of demise. Thatcher's fall was predicted a couple of years ahead of its event. Boris Johnson's demise has likewise been predicted before he even became leader.

He is a difficult one to call both because he's a political chameleon and because there may never have been such a slippery customer in Downing Street.

However, I do sense the wheels are wobbling. Too many things are beginning to go wrong for this to be airily dismissed as Westminster village tittle tattle.

Fishing

Besides note making an enemy of Cummings, I suppose the other way not to be called "totally hopeless" in public is perhaps to do your job moderately competently. If Hancock is damaged by Cummings it'll be because what Cummings says rings largely true.

As far as I can tell, Hancock has two core beliefs: self-belief, and centralisation. A very dangerous combination, especially when the emergency powers means he doesn't really have to bother about democracy very much.

If there's one minister who deserves to be sacked it's him.

Fishing

(Although it's perhaps slightly odd to single out mass testing to criticise the government as that's one thing the government hasn't done too badly on).

ydoethur

Fishing said:

Besides note making an enemy of Cummings, I suppose the other way not to be called "totally hopeless" in public is perhaps to do your job moderately competently. If Hancock is damaged by Cummings it'll be because what Cummings says rings largely true.

As far as I can tell, Hancock has two core beliefs: self-belief, and centralisation. A very dangerous combination, especially when the emergency powers means he doesn't really have to bother about democracy very much.

If there's one minister who deserves to be sacked it's him.

That’s very generous to Priti Patel, Amanda Milling and Gavin Williamson.

IanB2

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

MarqueeMark

Possibly the worst aspect of canning the June 21st opening is it put the reshuffle back 4 more weeks.

Possibly the worst aspect of Dom Cummings intervention is that it makes Hancock safer in post.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

Dominic Cummings criticising somebody else for being rambling and having no grasp of the issues?

He really is an extraordinarily unselfaware twat.

Edit - and I say that as somebody who is anything but a fan of Johnson or Hancock.

SouthamObserver

It's all baked in so will make no difference to anything.

SouthamObserver

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

A lot of people are happy enough with Johnson being a lazy, grifting, lying, lightweight. God knows why, but they are. Most people also think Cummings is deeply unpleasant and totally unreliable. Put all that together and we have another non-existent inflection point that will change nothing.

CarlottaVance

I know this has been a dilemma for several posters:

If you want to bring your second vaccine dose forward, but haven’t because you have to cancel your appointment first… you can use the new availability checker before you cancel to make sure you’ll get an appointment sooner #nhsdigital #COVIDVaccination #Covid19

https://twitter.com/fordie/status/1405281727761711109?s=20

SouthamObserver

FrancisUrquhart said:

Actually the media attention on this actually story isn't as great for Labour as perhaps one thinks, as it totally takes away the narrative that the borders should have been closed earlier for arrivals from India. Instead the media is full of psycho-drama, being pushed by an individual in Big Dom that the public has shown they just don't believe or trust.

The public seem to cut the government a fair bit of slack of their initial handling. The media re-treading this takes away from what they should be focusing on how we got another 4 week delay, not closing the border, the vaccine roll out slowing (not bringing back AZN online) and also if the data really does support this 4 week i.e. are SAGE models bollocks.

Big Dom 7hrs nuclear bomb drop of a few weeks ago didn't impact the Tory polling at all....the delay looks like it has. But all the focus on who said what naughty word about whom 12+ months ago, crowds out a closer examination of the delay.

Exactly why Starmer was right not to go with it at PMQs yesterday.

CarlottaVance

Hong Kong police arrested five executives of the pro-democracy Apple Daily newspaper with a warrant to seize journalistic materials for the first time, in the latest blow to Jimmy Lai, the tabloid's owner and a staunch Beijing critic https://reut.rs/2S8PBY4

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1405398461810368514?s=20

philiph

Cummings may well be 100% right.
Behaving like a bad tempered vindictive jilted lover isn't the way to gain sympathy, credibility or believability.
The PM is no doubt a useless individual in many ways, and unsuited to the job in other ways. I'm sure ge can rant with the best of us.
A duplicitous disloyal publicity seeking ex confidante spreading shit harms. It harms the shit spreader first and the target(s) to a lesser extent.
Each installment becomes less effictive. This isn't the way to damage Johnson.

DecrepiterJohnL

Fishing said:

Besides note making an enemy of Cummings, I suppose the other way not to be called "totally hopeless" in public is perhaps to do your job moderately competently. If Hancock is damaged by Cummings it'll be because what Cummings says rings largely true.

As far as I can tell, Hancock has two core beliefs: self-belief, and centralisation. A very dangerous combination, especially when the emergency powers means he doesn't really have to bother about democracy very much.

If there's one minister who deserves to be sacked it's him.

Self-belief and centralisation put me in mind of Cummings more than Hancock. That and his apparent conviction we need to hire physicists before crossing the road.

CarlottaVance

BBC R4 dismissing “two jabs and no quarantine on return” (DT) as “no plans to do that” also the “work from home for ever consultation” (Mail) point out its in the 2019 manifesto

Cocky_cockney

SouthamObserver said:

It's all baked in so will make no difference to anything.

Denial

DecrepiterJohnL

Cocky_cockney said:

I'm old enough to remember the wheels coming off several Governments.

I remember it happening to Jim Callaghan, to Margaret Thatcher, to John Major, to Tony Blair, to Theresa May.

One of the characteristics when the vehicle begins to wobble is that those on board enter denial that it's happening. There are examples of that on this forum.

I'm also old enough to remember false predictions of demise. Thatcher's fall was predicted a couple of years ahead of its event. Boris Johnson's demise has likewise been predicted before he even became leader.

He is a difficult one to call both because he's a political chameleon and because there may never have been such a slippery customer in Downing Street.

However, I do sense the wheels are wobbling. Too many things are beginning to go wrong for this to be airily dismissed as Westminster village tittle tattle.

One complication in predicting Boris's exit is that unlike Mrs Thatcher, Boris will probably *want* to retire to spend more time with his family and people who can write big cheques.

CarlottaVance

Oz trade deal agreement in principle:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-australia-free-trade-agreement-negotiations-agreement-in-principle/uk-australia-fta-negotiations-agreement-in-principle

Cocky_cockney

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

I know this has been a dilemma for several posters:

If you want to bring your second vaccine dose forward, but haven’t because you have to cancel your appointment first… you can use the new availability checker before you cancel to make sure you’ll get an appointment sooner #nhsdigital #COVIDVaccination #Covid19

https://twitter.com/fordie/status/1405281727761711109?s=20

Good news, also the text messages discussed on the last thread.

It does sound as if they’re having to make the effort to find arms to jab, as the younger groups don’t see it as particularly urgent - at least not until being vaccinated exempts them from quarantine, when they come back from a holiday.

Once everyone has been offered a jab, it will be:
Vaccinated = Test on arrival, free on negative result.
Unvaccinated = 10 days’ quarantine, two tests.

Cocky_cockney

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Cocky_cockney said:

I'm old enough to remember the wheels coming off several Governments.

I remember it happening to Jim Callaghan, to Margaret Thatcher, to John Major, to Tony Blair, to Theresa May.

One of the characteristics when the vehicle begins to wobble is that those on board enter denial that it's happening. There are examples of that on this forum.

I'm also old enough to remember false predictions of demise. Thatcher's fall was predicted a couple of years ahead of its event. Boris Johnson's demise has likewise been predicted before he even became leader.

He is a difficult one to call both because he's a political chameleon and because there may never have been such a slippery customer in Downing Street.

However, I do sense the wheels are wobbling. Too many things are beginning to go wrong for this to be airily dismissed as Westminster village tittle tattle.

One complication in predicting Boris's exit is that unlike Mrs Thatcher, Boris will probably *want* to retire to spend more time with his family and people who can write big cheques.

Yes and with all the hideous hubris of Tony Blair who couldn't bear to be defeated at the ballot box, so he slipped away before public censure.

Sandpit

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

The question is, when the PM loses his popularity, will the Opposition be the people to benefit - or will, as happened last time, the Conservatives re-invent themselves under a new leader, without losing power?

SouthamObserver

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

I always thought he would tumble as he is clearly - to my eyes - entirely unsuited to being a PM. However, over time it's become clear he is routinely forgiven for things that would bring any other politician down. I freely admit I do not understand why, but we are where we are.

Nigelb

Fishing said:

(Although it's perhaps slightly odd to single out mass testing to criticise the government as that's one thing the government hasn't done too badly on).

I disagree.
They have spent an enormous amount of money of a program which failed in its primary aim of greatly reducing the course of the pandemic.

Cocky_cockney

By the way, a curious situation in the Labour Party. Keir Starmer has managed to lead his party into the ever more dour, dull and dangerous 'Lock 'em down' line.

And yet you have Ben Bradshaw MP who is repeatedly sounding a libertarian clarion: calling for travel and business to re-open. I know that he's very pro-European but his message on this is so much more refreshing than the boring barrister.

DecrepiterJohnL

CarlottaVance said:

BBC R4 dismissing “two jabs and no quarantine on return” (DT) as “no plans to do that” also the “work from home for ever consultation” (Mail) point out its in the 2019 manifesto

Is it? Where? Nearest I can see is a vague allusion to broadband being helpful to entrepreneurs setting up from home. Why would any post-pandemic measure be in the 2019 manifesto written before Covid was a twinkle in a Wuhan bat's eye?

Nigelb

CarlottaVance said:

Hong Kong police arrested five executives of the pro-democracy Apple Daily newspaper with a warrant to seize journalistic materials for the first time, in the latest blow to Jimmy Lai, the tabloid's owner and a staunch Beijing critic https://reut.rs/2S8PBY4

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1405398461810368514?s=20

The difference between contemporary China and Orwell’s Eastasia increasingly seems to be only the matter of relative prosperity.
https://twitter.com/iamarman88/status/1405321358553223169

SouthamObserver

Sandpit said:

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

The question is, when the PM loses his popularity, will the Opposition be the people to benefit - or will, as happened last time, the Conservatives re-invent themselves under a new leader, without losing power?

That is right. And you would have to bet on another Tory reinvention as Labour continues to tear itself apart. Starmer has failed to stop the bleeding and is now weakened, probably beyond repair. However, there is no-one else in the party who could get past the membership that would do a better job. All of which is actually very bad news for the country. These are worrying times.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

Hong Kong police arrested five executives of the pro-democracy Apple Daily newspaper with a warrant to seize journalistic materials for the first time, in the latest blow to Jimmy Lai, the tabloid's owner and a staunch Beijing critic https://reut.rs/2S8PBY4

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1405398461810368514?s=20

The difference between contemporary China and Orwell’s Eastasia increasingly seems to be only the matter of relative prosperity.
https://twitter.com/iamarman88/status/1405321358553223169

Indeed. By the time that lunatic Xi is done, China will be back to where it was in about 1710.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Doethur, disagree strongly. The advances in technology will make China something that has been written of in sci-fi but never seen before in this world. We see it already with social credit and that degree of technology and control will only increase.

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Doethur, disagree strongly. The advances in technology will make China something that has been written of in sci-fi but never seen before in this world. We see it already with social credit and that degree of technology and control will only increase.

You’re betting it’s not turned on him.

This does not seem a value bet.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Doethur, I'd guess that Xi will be there for a long time. But we'll see.

Jonathan

SouthamObserver said:

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

I always thought he would tumble as he is clearly - to my eyes - entirely unsuited to being a PM. However, over time it's become clear he is routinely forgiven for things that would bring any other politician down. I freely admit I do not understand why, but we are where we are.

Boris provides a unique service, The world is a complex and uncertain place. Boris simplifies it. By making a joke of it all, he gives us permission not to take it seriously either. He provides a anaesthetic as powerful as getting drunk. To call him out would mean sobering up. After Brexit, austerity, covid or the troubles of globalisation, it’s much easier to stay drunk.

The opposition struggle because they appear like an AA meeting before you’re ready for it.

That’s Boris’s secret.

CarlottaVance

DecrepiterJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

BBC R4 dismissing “two jabs and no quarantine on return” (DT) as “no plans to do that” also the “work from home for ever consultation” (Mail) point out its in the 2019 manifesto

Is it? Where? Nearest I can see is a vague allusion to broadband being helpful to entrepreneurs setting up from home. Why would any post-pandemic measure be in the 2019 manifesto written before Covid was a twinkle in a Wuhan bat's eye?

Page 39:

We will encourage flexible working and consult on making it the default unless employers have good reasons not to.

https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf

algarkirk

I don't think this 'will run' at least for now. DC is universally execrated, and where criticism comes from is important. Yes, Boris's wheels will come off. So what. It isn't now. Labour are in no place to take advantage anyway.

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Doethur, I'd guess that Xi will be there for a long time. But we'll see.

He’s there until others in power decide they want some of the money he’s stolen back - or, for themselves.

That may be a shorter time than you expect.

DecrepiterJohnL

Ladbrokes' prices on Chesham & Amersham (apart from the obvious one: who wins?):-

To come third:-
Greens 4/7
Labour 11/8
Liberal Democrats 16/1
Reform UK 33/1
Breakthrough Party 100/1
Conservatives 100/1
Freedom Alliance 100/1
Rejoin EU 100/1

LibDem vote share:-
Under 25% 50/1
25-30% 25/1
30-35% 3/1
35-40% 6/4
40-45% 7/4
45-50% 12/1
Over 50% 40/1

Is it worth looking at the third place market? Is Labour value, given the party came third in 2019 and second in 2017? Other bookmakers are available. In the absence of any polling data, I'm reluctant to get involved.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Doethur, the early purge of the corrupt and 'corrupt' will have removed many of his rivals. I have to admit, I'm not up on Chinese politics in any sort of detail but given he did that I imagine Xi will have taken steps to ensure he's as unassailable as he can be, especially as he's not named a successor, breaking with tradition, and must be aware of the potential for an attempt to replace him.

Sandpit

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

The question is, when the PM loses his popularity, will the Opposition be the people to benefit - or will, as happened last time, the Conservatives re-invent themselves under a new leader, without losing power?

That is right. And you would have to bet on another Tory reinvention as Labour continues to tear itself apart. Starmer has failed to stop the bleeding and is now weakened, probably beyond repair. However, there is no-one else in the party who could get past the membership that would do a better job. All of which is actually very bad news for the country. These are worrying times.

Very much so. Opposition during a pandemic isn’t the easiest of jobs, but Starmer and co don’t even seem to be trying.

They should be on the TV morning, noon and night with stories of people who can say they’ve been let down by the government during the pandemic and slipped through the cracks of the various schemes. But they only ever speak to union members and public sector workers, who are pretty much all doing just fine...

When the extension legislation comes up next week, they need to propose an unreasonable amendment, as a reason to vote down the bill without it - and see if they can get it to fall with enough Tory libertarian rebels. But they won’t, because they really don’t understand how Parliamentary politics works.

MarqueeMark

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Ladbrokes' prices on Chesham & Amersham (apart from the obvious one: who wins?):-

To come third:-
Greens 4/7
Labour 11/8
Liberal Democrats 16/1
Reform UK 33/1
Breakthrough Party 100/1
Conservatives 100/1
Freedom Alliance 100/1
Rejoin EU 100/1

LibDem vote share:-
Under 25% 50/1
25-30% 25/1
30-35% 3/1
35-40% 6/4
40-45% 7/4
45-50% 12/1
Over 50% 40/1

Is it worth looking at the third place market? Is Labour value, given the party came third in 2019 and second in 2017? Other bookmakers are available. In the absence of any polling data, I'm reluctant to get involved.

If this is the two horse race we think, with the LibDems performing a squeeze on the non-Tory vote, then 45-50% band at 12-1 looks cracking value. They could get that - and still come second....

rottenborough

Morning all,

So hoping Johnson gets a bloody nose tonight in C&A.

Sandpit

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

CarlottaVance

The rapid spread of the Delta Covid variant has driven a 50 per cent rise in infections in England since May, a study led by Imperial College London found on Thursday.

“Prevalence is increasing exponentially, driven by younger ages... and it appears to be doubling every 11 days. Clearly, that is bad news,” Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics, Imperial College London, told reporters.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-covid-latest-updates-epidemic-growing-travel-list-news-b941079.html

DecrepiterJohnL

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Ladbrokes' prices on Chesham & Amersham (apart from the obvious one: who wins?):-

To come third:-
Greens 4/7
Labour 11/8
Liberal Democrats 16/1
Reform UK 33/1
Breakthrough Party 100/1
Conservatives 100/1
Freedom Alliance 100/1
Rejoin EU 100/1

LibDem vote share:-
Under 25% 50/1
25-30% 25/1
30-35% 3/1
35-40% 6/4
40-45% 7/4
45-50% 12/1
Over 50% 40/1

Is it worth looking at the third place market? Is Labour value, given the party came third in 2019 and second in 2017? Other bookmakers are available. In the absence of any polling data, I'm reluctant to get involved.

If this is the two horse race we think, with the LibDems performing a squeeze on the non-Tory vote, then 45-50% band at 12-1 looks cracking value. They could get that - and still come second....

Maximum stake 50p. Shadsy's running scared!

This might be personal. Ladbrokes and Corals (same ownership) seem to have decided recently they are better off without me. Or it could be that Ladbrokes' politics markets are there to create headlines rather than be played.

OldKingCole

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

The question is, when the PM loses his popularity, will the Opposition be the people to benefit - or will, as happened last time, the Conservatives re-invent themselves under a new leader, without losing power?

That is right. And you would have to bet on another Tory reinvention as Labour continues to tear itself apart. Starmer has failed to stop the bleeding and is now weakened, probably beyond repair. However, there is no-one else in the party who could get past the membership that would do a better job. All of which is actually very bad news for the country. These are worrying times.

Good morning everyone; bit better here than forecast earlier.
On topic, Mr O is right. We have a Labour Party which has rather lost it's raison d'être; the old idea of the vaguely, but not too stridently, marxist organisation ;for the people' ...... Methodism and Marx ........ has been overtaken by events. Our tragedy is that what looked like it's potential replacement, the party of Ashdown and Kennedy, was seduced by the idea of power under Clegg and eviscerated by Cameron.
What remains on the Left too often seems to be a rag-bag of assorted 'radicals'. Meanwhile the old idea of the Conservative party, the party of 'good chaps' still holds good, or fairly good, although it has itself been taken over, in large measure, by, as I've suggested before, the sort of person elected in 1918; 'hard-faced men who did well out of the War', plus a number of self-aggrandising mountebanks, for whom 'truth' is an elastic concept.

borisatsun

I was enjoying the imperial v metric discussions yesterday, but was surprised I didn't see anyone mention the acre, my favourite imperial measure.

A furlong by a chain, so a strip of land 220 yards by 22 yards. The relative dimensions are important as the area was defined as the land tillable by one man and one ox in one day - a square "acre" wouldn't be, as there'd be too many turns.

Hectares may be more sensible, but how dull?!

rottenborough

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

The Beeb should be having an inquiry into how they lost Neil rather than fretting about what Martin Bashir did thirty years ago.

Sandpit

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Ladbrokes' prices on Chesham & Amersham (apart from the obvious one: who wins?):-

To come third:-
Greens 4/7
Labour 11/8
Liberal Democrats 16/1
Reform UK 33/1
Breakthrough Party 100/1
Conservatives 100/1
Freedom Alliance 100/1
Rejoin EU 100/1

LibDem vote share:-
Under 25% 50/1
25-30% 25/1
30-35% 3/1
35-40% 6/4
40-45% 7/4
45-50% 12/1
Over 50% 40/1

Is it worth looking at the third place market? Is Labour value, given the party came third in 2019 and second in 2017? Other bookmakers are available. In the absence of any polling data, I'm reluctant to get involved.

If this is the two horse race we think, with the LibDems performing a squeeze on the non-Tory vote, then 45-50% band at 12-1 looks cracking value. They could get that - and still come second....

Maximum stake 50p. Shadsy's running scared!

This might be personal. Ladbrokes and Corals (same ownership) seem to have decided recently they are better off without me. Or it could be that Ladbrokes' politics markets are there to create headlines rather than be played.

Once the Gambling Commission have finished looking at the Football Index mess, their next challenge needs to be how to deal with bookmakers’ use of customer data, to deny and shut down the ‘wrong’ sort of customers.

DecrepiterJohnL

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Regardless of any other merit, the Sunak interview got GB News into the papers, which was probably its main aim.

CarlottaVance

R4 reporting that ban on eviction by landlords for non-payment of rent extended by 9 months to March 2022.

CarlottaVance

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Well worth a watch - good critique afterwards by Portillo & Halligan too.

rottenborough

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Regardless of any other merit, the Sunak interview got GB News into the papers, which was probably its main aim.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8h
This is the most uncomfortable I’ve seen Rishi Sunak in quite a while.


Sunak fans should pause and watch the clip Dan Hodges has there. Looking well under pressure over £10K bill for new boilers for every family.

RochdalePioneers

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Two thoughts:
1. Sunak is very good. Handles Neil's questions well, especially the first few aimed at putting him off
2. I get it now. GBN a spoof. A set that consists of corrugated walls with a few strips of Ali Express LEDs, not enough light, 1st week of graphic design school logo/captions and Andrew Neil's nipples.

OldKingCole

CarlottaVance said:

R4 reporting that ban on eviction by landlords for non-payment of rent extended by 9 months to March 2022.

Thought that applied to commercial properties?

Mexicanpete

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

The question is, when the PM loses his popularity, will the Opposition be the people to benefit - or will, as happened last time, the Conservatives re-invent themselves under a new leader, without losing power?

That is right. And you would have to bet on another Tory reinvention as Labour continues to tear itself apart. Starmer has failed to stop the bleeding and is now weakened, probably beyond repair. However, there is no-one else in the party who could get past the membership that would do a better job. All of which is actually very bad news for the country. These are worrying times.

Indeed, but in what form will the next reinvention take. I get some indication from yesterday's revelations that IDS and his desire to purge the UK of all memory of EU membership, by first returning us to Imperial measurement, presumably followed by a de-decimalisation of our currency. But why does this trivia matter? It doesn't of itself. However presumably the end game to all this nonsense is a full return to the chocolate box world of the 1950s. Deference to authority, knowing one's place, dissent punished with hanging. flogging and corporal punishment in our Grammar Schools and on National Service.

In an ideal IDS world, mobile phones will be replaced by red telephone boxes and we'll all be driving around in our half timbered Morris Minors. The next reinvention might fulfill the Tory right's picture of what Britain, going forward will look like, and there might be enough red meat to keep the RedWall on board, hanging nonses and foreign terrorists will go down well, but when they finally arrive in the midst of IDS's wet dream it probably won't be what they thought they wanted.

RochdalePioneers

algarkirk said:

I don't think this 'will run' at least for now. DC is universally execrated, and where criticism comes from is important. Yes, Boris's wheels will come off. So what. It isn't now. Labour are in no place to take advantage anyway.

You completely miss the point. Forget Labour, they are both crap and about to revert to ferret fighting as Angela Rayner is on manuevers (as I reported after Hartlepool).

The opposition to Johnson and his replacement are inside the Conservative Party. Just because they have a majority of 82 and an arrogant leader doesn't mean they won't bin him off for a calm and competent Chancellor. As they did Thatcher...

Foxy

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

Dominic Cummings criticising somebody else for being rambling and having no grasp of the issues?

He really is an extraordinarily unselfaware twat.

Edit - and I say that as somebody who is anything but a fan of Johnson or Hancock.

Indeed, that is the most damning thing coming out of Cummings long diatribes. The amateurishness of the whole business, and for a year DC was the right hand man of the PM, with carte blanched to do as he pleased.

I don't expect a short term poll effect, people aren't interested in politics during the silly season, but there is lots of source material for future historians. When the history is written this will be heavily cited.

CarlottaVance

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

R4 reporting that ban on eviction by landlords for non-payment of rent extended by 9 months to March 2022.

Thought that applied to commercial properties?

Yes:

The existing measures in place to protect commercial tenants from eviction will be extended to 25 March 2022. This is to ensure that the sectors who are unable to open have enough time to come to an agreement with their landlord without the threat of eviction.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/eviction-protection-extended-for-businesses-most-in-need

Foxy

CarlottaVance said:

R4 reporting that ban on eviction by landlords for non-payment of rent extended by 9 months to March 2022.

Lots more zombie businesses stagger on down the road.

Pulpstar

It is a shame Batley and Spen doesn't cover and pick up Morley.
We'd then have M&S and C&A

Mexicanpete

RochdalePioneers said:

algarkirk said:

I don't think this 'will run' at least for now. DC is universally execrated, and where criticism comes from is important. Yes, Boris's wheels will come off. So what. It isn't now. Labour are in no place to take advantage anyway.

You completely miss the point. Forget Labour, they are both crap and about to revert to ferret fighting as Angela Rayner is on manuevers (as I reported after Hartlepool).

The opposition to Johnson and his replacement are inside the Conservative Party. Just because they have a majority of 82 and an arrogant leader doesn't mean they won't bin him off for a calm and competent Chancellor. As they did Thatcher...

But isn't Cummings a shill for the ever more peculiar behaving Gove. I suspect Cummings is keeping his powder dry for Sunak, I suspect his card is marked too

RochdalePioneers

rottenborough said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Regardless of any other merit, the Sunak interview got GB News into the papers, which was probably its main aim.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8h
This is the most uncomfortable I’ve seen Rishi Sunak in quite a while.


Sunak fans should pause and watch the clip Dan Hodges has there. Looking well under pressure over £10K bill for new boilers for every family.

As Sunak says, what £10k bill? He rightly pointed out that (a) "costs" always get balanced against "opportunity" and whatever the cost is now won't be the cost by the time they are rolling it out.

OldKingCole

Mexicanpete said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

The question is, when the PM loses his popularity, will the Opposition be the people to benefit - or will, as happened last time, the Conservatives re-invent themselves under a new leader, without losing power?

That is right. And you would have to bet on another Tory reinvention as Labour continues to tear itself apart. Starmer has failed to stop the bleeding and is now weakened, probably beyond repair. However, there is no-one else in the party who could get past the membership that would do a better job. All of which is actually very bad news for the country. These are worrying times.

Indeed, but in what form will the next reinvention take. I get some indication from yesterday's revelations that IDS and his desire to purge the UK of all memory of EU membership, by first returning us to Imperial measurement, presumably followed by a de-decimalisation of our currency. But why does this trivia matter? It doesn't of itself. However presumably the end game to all this nonsense is a full return to the chocolate box world of the 1950s. Deference to authority, knowing one's place, dissent punished with hanging. flogging and corporal punishment in our Grammar Schools and on National Service.

In an ideal IDS world, mobile phones will be replaced by red telephone boxes and we'll all be driving around in our half timbered Morris Minors. The next reinvention might fulfill the Tory right's picture of what Britain, going forward will look like, and there might be enough red meat to keep the RedWall on board, hanging nonses and foreign terrorists will go down well, but when they finally arrive in the midst of IDS's wet dream it probably won't be what they thought they wanted.

I was a teenager in the 1950's. Quite what was so good about them, compared, say, with the 60's.

Dura_Ace

DecrepiterJohnL said:

One complication in predicting Boris's exit is that unlike Mrs Thatcher, Boris will probably *want* to retire to spend more time with his family and people who can write big cheques.

I have some sympathy with this proposition but I don't wholly agree with it. Johnson and NutNut clearly revel in the trappings of high office and want to keep enjoying them as long as possible. He marched thousands of Britons to the their graves just because he was desperate for the polychromatic pageantry of a trip to India.

Johnson's third VVIP aircraft is currently being fitted out in Bordeaux. Despite Brexit.

RochdalePioneers

Mexicanpete said:

RochdalePioneers said:

algarkirk said:

I don't think this 'will run' at least for now. DC is universally execrated, and where criticism comes from is important. Yes, Boris's wheels will come off. So what. It isn't now. Labour are in no place to take advantage anyway.

You completely miss the point. Forget Labour, they are both crap and about to revert to ferret fighting as Angela Rayner is on manuevers (as I reported after Hartlepool).

The opposition to Johnson and his replacement are inside the Conservative Party. Just because they have a majority of 82 and an arrogant leader doesn't mean they won't bin him off for a calm and competent Chancellor. As they did Thatcher...

But isn't Cummings a shill for the ever more peculiar behaving Gove. I suspect Cummings is keeping his powder dry for Sunak, I suspect his card is marked too

Either way, shagger isn't safe because Labour are crap. At some point even the PB Tories will start feeling with uncomfortable with just how shambolic and embarrassing their government is. The next election is around 2 years away at most - they will need time to bed in a new PM and a new image for the party.

state_go_away

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Ladbrokes' prices on Chesham & Amersham (apart from the obvious one: who wins?):-

To come third:-
Greens 4/7
Labour 11/8
Liberal Democrats 16/1
Reform UK 33/1
Breakthrough Party 100/1
Conservatives 100/1
Freedom Alliance 100/1
Rejoin EU 100/1

LibDem vote share:-
Under 25% 50/1
25-30% 25/1
30-35% 3/1
35-40% 6/4
40-45% 7/4
45-50% 12/1
Over 50% 40/1

Is it worth looking at the third place market? Is Labour value, given the party came third in 2019 and second in 2017? Other bookmakers are available. In the absence of any polling data, I'm reluctant to get involved.

Greens are bad value for third , Labour ok but Reform at 33/1 has to be the bet .

Mexicanpete

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

R4 reporting that ban on eviction by landlords for non-payment of rent extended by 9 months to March 2022.

Lots more zombie businesses stagger on down the road.

We are in an odd situation. Good, honest, previously successful businesses dropping like flies, yet Mercedes-Benz Approved Used car stock at an all time low, because they cannot keep up with demand. I kid you not!

Foxy

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Regardless of any other merit, the Sunak interview got GB News into the papers, which was probably its main aim.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8h
This is the most uncomfortable I’ve seen Rishi Sunak in quite a while.


Sunak fans should pause and watch the clip Dan Hodges has there. Looking well under pressure over £10K bill for new boilers for every family.

As Sunak says, what £10k bill? He rightly pointed out that (a) "costs" always get balanced against "opportunity" and whatever the cost is now won't be the cost by the time they are rolling it out.

Isn't the problem with retrofitting heat pumps that the radiators need to be replaced by bigger ones too, because of the lower operating temperature of the system?

CarlottaVance

Mexicanpete said:

RochdalePioneers said:

algarkirk said:

I don't think this 'will run' at least for now. DC is universally execrated, and where criticism comes from is important. Yes, Boris's wheels will come off. So what. It isn't now. Labour are in no place to take advantage anyway.

You completely miss the point. Forget Labour, they are both crap and about to revert to ferret fighting as Angela Rayner is on manuevers (as I reported after Hartlepool).

The opposition to Johnson and his replacement are inside the Conservative Party. Just because they have a majority of 82 and an arrogant leader doesn't mean they won't bin him off for a calm and competent Chancellor. As they did Thatcher...

But isn't Cummings a shill for the ever more peculiar behaving Gove.

Quite what Gove thinks giving Scottish MPs votes on English only laws is going to do to "strengthen the Union" is a question I look forward to learning the answer to.....

CarlottaVance

In case this wasn't reported yesterday:

The UK growth rate (not infection rate) has slowed for seven consecutive days.

Today’s seven-day average is up 31.8% on last week. Here’s how it’s fallen:

Wednesday: 66.0%
Thursday: 63.1%
Friday: 58.1%
Saturday: 52.4%
Sunday: 49.3%
Monday: 45.5%
Tuesday: 38.8%
Wednesday: 31.8%.....

Essentially this means that we’re still seeing an increase in new cases, which obviously isn’t ideal, but the rate of growth is far less steep than it was.

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1405179451583959050?s=20

AlistairM

Covid infection anecdata from my Bucks village.

On Tuesday a whole group of parents started getting pinged on the Covid App to isolate. At a kids football match on Saturday one of the visiting team/parents had Covid and all those who were in the area were asked to isolate. All the kids who were there had to come home from school. I've not heard of any of them (parents or kids) testing positive yet but does seem to show the App is working. I think a lot of people had thought we were through it all and it has been quite a wake up call.

The other anecdote is much more worrying. Couple of parents I know were out in our local nature reserve. They met another family and one of their children was coughing. The parent said he just has a "touch of Covid". They thought they were joking but then it became clear that they were not. The child had Covid and they were out and about. I can't quite believe how stupid some people are.

It does back up the obvious picture of infections growing. I do wonder though from looking at the last 2 weeks data whether the pace of growth is declining.

Dura_Ace

Mexicanpete said:

We are in an odd situation. Good, honest, previously successful businesses dropping like flies, yet Mercedes-Benz Approved Used car stock at an all time low, because they cannot keep up with demand. I kid you not!

Ditto Porsche. Very little in inventory and what there is has amazing price tags.

The new car situation is a little different and long term demand looks weak. I got offered an allocation for a 992 GT3 Touring for 2022 delivery but I couldn't get near a 991 version a few years ago.

JohnLilburne

CarlottaVance said:

The rapid spread of the Delta Covid variant has driven a 50 per cent rise in infections in England since May, a study led by Imperial College London found on Thursday.

“Prevalence is increasing exponentially, driven by younger ages... and it appears to be doubling every 11 days. Clearly, that is bad news,” Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics, Imperial College London, told reporters.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-covid-latest-updates-epidemic-growing-travel-list-news-b941079.html

He really shouldn't be talking about the week ending 7 June in the present tense.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. M, sadly, no legislation, guidance, or rule can make up for human stupidity.

NerysHughes

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Regardless of any other merit, the Sunak interview got GB News into the papers, which was probably its main aim.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8h
This is the most uncomfortable I’ve seen Rishi Sunak in quite a while.


Sunak fans should pause and watch the clip Dan Hodges has there. Looking well under pressure over £10K bill for new boilers for every family.

As Sunak says, what £10k bill? He rightly pointed out that (a) "costs" always get balanced against "opportunity" and whatever the cost is now won't be the cost by the time they are rolling it out.

Isn't the problem with retrofitting heat pumps that the radiators need to be replaced by bigger ones too, because of the lower operating temperature of the system?

The equipment needed for a heat pump is much more than for a boiler. There is no way with current technology that a heat pump system could be retrofitted into a standard 3 bed semi. The equipment required would fill up the kitchen completely. The whole heat pump idea is a red herring for our current housing stock.

Foxy

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Cocky_cockney said:

I'm old enough to remember the wheels coming off several Governments.

I remember it happening to Jim Callaghan, to Margaret Thatcher, to John Major, to Tony Blair, to Theresa May.

One of the characteristics when the vehicle begins to wobble is that those on board enter denial that it's happening. There are examples of that on this forum.

I'm also old enough to remember false predictions of demise. Thatcher's fall was predicted a couple of years ahead of its event. Boris Johnson's demise has likewise been predicted before he even became leader.

He is a difficult one to call both because he's a political chameleon and because there may never have been such a slippery customer in Downing Street.

However, I do sense the wheels are wobbling. Too many things are beginning to go wrong for this to be airily dismissed as Westminster village tittle tattle.

One complication in predicting Boris's exit is that unlike Mrs Thatcher, Boris will probably *want* to retire to spend more time with his family and people who can write big cheques.

Is there much evidence that Johnson has ever desired to spend more time with his family? He casts off families like others cast off dirty underwear.

Dura_Ace

Mexicanpete said:

In an ideal IDS world, mobile phones will be replaced by red telephone boxes and we'll all be driving around in our half timbered Morris Minors.

IDS is a Morgan enthusiast which gives you some idea of the heft of the slapheaded twat's opinion on any subject.

Sandpit

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Having now watched it, a very good performance by both men, exactly what we should expect from our politicians and interviewers.

Good to see the Chancellor challenged over the costs of the “net zero” pledge, and what that might mean in practice.

The main thing that comes out, is how refreshing it is to hear long-form interviews with senior ministers, rather than seven-minute soundbites characterised by everyone shouting over each other.

If Neil can get an interview or two like this, a minister or opponent every week going forward, his programme (and his new channel) will add an awful lot of positives to the political discourse.

LostPassword

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

Boris Johnson is about to start enjoying his job. He will soon grasp that the emergency is over, and then the post-pandemic boom will kick in. If ever there was a political leader who would enjoy a roaring twenties it would be Johnson.

Even when he messes up life and death policy decisions his voters find reasons to forgive or excuse him.

I stand by my prediction that he will increase his government's majority at the next general election.

Philip_Thompson

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Cocky_cockney said:

I'm old enough to remember the wheels coming off several Governments.

I remember it happening to Jim Callaghan, to Margaret Thatcher, to John Major, to Tony Blair, to Theresa May.

One of the characteristics when the vehicle begins to wobble is that those on board enter denial that it's happening. There are examples of that on this forum.

I'm also old enough to remember false predictions of demise. Thatcher's fall was predicted a couple of years ahead of its event. Boris Johnson's demise has likewise been predicted before he even became leader.

He is a difficult one to call both because he's a political chameleon and because there may never have been such a slippery customer in Downing Street.

However, I do sense the wheels are wobbling. Too many things are beginning to go wrong for this to be airily dismissed as Westminster village tittle tattle.

One complication in predicting Boris's exit is that unlike Mrs Thatcher, Boris will probably *want* to retire to spend more time with his family and people who can write big cheques.

Is there much evidence that Johnson has ever desired to spend more time with his family? He casts off families like others cast off dirty underwear.

He's been married three times, I hope underwear gets changed more often.

Sandpit

Dura_Ace said:

Mexicanpete said:

We are in an odd situation. Good, honest, previously successful businesses dropping like flies, yet Mercedes-Benz Approved Used car stock at an all time low, because they cannot keep up with demand. I kid you not!

Ditto Porsche. Very little in inventory and what there is has amazing price tags.

The new car situation is a little different and long term demand looks weak. I got offered an allocation for a 992 GT3 Touring for 2022 delivery but I couldn't get near a 991 version a few years ago.

That new Touring does look quite lovely. I can’t make the man-maths work on it, sadly.

DavidL

Can I just say, since I was not online, how much I enjoyed @Cyclefree's thread header posted last night. An outstanding piece that highlighted a genuine problem and a major flaw in our system. Why is Dick still in office this morning? Have we no shame? None at all?

I would ask where our opposition is but, frankly, what's the point?

CarlottaVance

Politico read on Starmer's challenge:

https://www.politico.eu/article/keir-starmer-uk-labour-faces-heads-or-tails-moment/

RochdalePioneers

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Regardless of any other merit, the Sunak interview got GB News into the papers, which was probably its main aim.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8h
This is the most uncomfortable I’ve seen Rishi Sunak in quite a while.


Sunak fans should pause and watch the clip Dan Hodges has there. Looking well under pressure over £10K bill for new boilers for every family.

As Sunak says, what £10k bill? He rightly pointed out that (a) "costs" always get balanced against "opportunity" and whatever the cost is now won't be the cost by the time they are rolling it out.

Isn't the problem with retrofitting heat pumps that the radiators need to be replaced by bigger ones too, because of the lower operating temperature of the system?

So, opportunity - British design and manufacturing of all these new pumps and radiators, British installation of them. Which will generate a bucket load of money for the economy.

Neil is a dinosaur, asking the tired "how much will it cost" question not interested in "how much will it save" and "how much will doing nothing cost".

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pioneers, people required by law to spend a fortune may be quite interested in the cost. This isn't an irrelevant matter.

Philip_Thompson

LostPassword said:

Cocky_cockney said:

IanB2 said:

Even by the start of May, Cummings said, the government had still not adopted a “wartime mentality” and when the prime minister chaired important meetings, Johnson would ramble and tell jokes.

“As soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ [he] does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree.”

I think the majority of us can see the inevitable, not Southam or Sandpit, but most of us. Johnson is going to fall from grace. We think we can see why this is going to happen and most of the facts support our assessment.

The real question is 'when?'.

It's starting to happen more quickly than I thought. Others may disagree and think it will take some time, perhaps years. But it's happening.

Peak Boris has passed.

Boris Johnson is about to start enjoying his job. He will soon grasp that the emergency is over, and then the post-pandemic boom will kick in. If ever there was a political leader who would enjoy a roaring twenties it would be Johnson.

Even when he messes up life and death policy decisions his voters find reasons to forgive or excuse him.

I stand by my prediction that he will increase his government's majority at the next general election.

I'd put the line for a majority around where it is now. So about a 50/50 shot that it increases.

Normally governments lose seats but normal politics hasn't applied for the past decade and I see little reason it will restart now.

I'd say there's about a 40% chance of a 100+ majority right now.

Sandpit

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

For anyone who missed it: Andrew Neil’s 30 minute interview with the Chancellor.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yk7PY07BNg

Regardless of any other merit, the Sunak interview got GB News into the papers, which was probably its main aim.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8h
This is the most uncomfortable I’ve seen Rishi Sunak in quite a while.


Sunak fans should pause and watch the clip Dan Hodges has there. Looking well under pressure over £10K bill for new boilers for every family.

As Sunak says, what £10k bill? He rightly pointed out that (a) "costs" always get balanced against "opportunity" and whatever the cost is now won't be the cost by the time they are rolling it out.

Isn't the problem with retrofitting heat pumps that the radiators need to be replaced by bigger ones too, because of the lower operating temperature of the system?

So, opportunity - British design and manufacturing of all these new pumps and radiators, British installation of them. Which will generate a bucket load of money for the economy.

Neil is a dinosaur, asking the tired "how much will it cost" question not interested in "how much will it save" and "how much will doing nothing cost".

The majority of voters, especially the working classes and the Red Wall, care very much about the cost.

It’s also fair to ask why the British consumer is being asked to contribute so much, when the same isn’t true of much larger countries such as the US and China. How many industrial jobs will be offshored as a result of this pledge?

Alistair

AlistairM said:

Covid infection anecdata from my Bucks village.

On Tuesday a whole group of parents started getting pinged on the Covid App to isolate. At a kids football match on Saturday one of the visiting team/parents had Covid and all those who were in the area were asked to isolate. All the kids who were there had to come home from school. I've not heard of any of them (parents or kids) testing positive yet but does seem to show the App is working. I think a lot of people had thought we were through it all and it has been quite a wake up call.

The other anecdote is much more worrying. Couple of parents I know were out in our local nature reserve. They met another family and one of their children was coughing. The parent said he just has a "touch of Covid". They thought they were joking but then it became clear that they were not. The child had Covid and they were out and about. I can't quite believe how stupid some people are.

It does back up the obvious picture of infections growing. I do wonder though from looking at the last 2 weeks data whether the pace of growth is declining.

Growth is declining which is great but Delta Covid is still very, very regional.

One thing many people are not aware of is the split nature of the autumn winter wave. The North of England had a big October wave and then a similarly sized or smaller winter wave. The south of England had a modest October wave then an absolutely gigantic winter wave. London is the most pronounced of that.

So what we are seeing is Delta fading in the North West and not absolutely catching fire elsewhere. But there is still the possibility of an ignition.