A reminder that the polling mode can impact the result – politicalbetting.com
A reminder that the polling mode can impact the result – politicalbetting.com
Death penalty draws more Americans’ support online than in telephone surveys https://t.co/vWvTuoheza
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I guess I would never answer a telephone poll and, if I did, I would probably lie especially about controversial issues. You've got to be really fired up about something to share your views to a real person on the other end of the phone. Even then, I'm not sure I would.
In other news, I'm starting to watch the way this Government continue their erosion of civil liberties. The latest assault on social media videos by Priti Patel may seem like a good thing to some people. It's all dressed up so reasonably, isn't it? Videos of migrants glamourise the crossing therefore they need to be censored.
But hey.
Today's migrant crossing is tomorrow's demo.
It's what the Johnson Government love and do. Frighten you all like little bunny rabbits beneath a sky full of eagles. Then, when you've scampered back into your burrows they remove a bit more of your warren. They erect a fence, for your protection of course, you understand? There will be sentry posts, to monitor the attackers and 'keep you safe.' And when you get a chance to express your gratitude, which will only be permitted for tagged members of the colony, you will lower your heads in obeisance. The great lords of the Johnson warren will thus be managing you in perpetuity.
But I still got threaded.
Make them feel guilty; make what has happened sound as evil as possible; only acknowledge any good stuff with a huge and dominating bit of "but what about" rhetoric; and we will get the cash *and* get more money and influence for the future.
Whilst often paying their own management more than the Prime Minister.
They don't seem to want to acknowledge past achievements in their desparate scrabble to maintain the same old media lines.
Personally, I stopped supporting big charities some time ago because of this political stuff, with a small number of exceptions.
I am sure others have done the same.
It's up there items such with Oxfam's exaggerated analysis about 'inequality' by leaving out the pension entitlements we all have from the State.
If you are putting together a round-robin 'outraged' letter in that sort of arena, 1700 is perhaps per for the course.
That they get to play into some of the cruder political Twitter memes perhaps helps.
Presumably deters animal rights types from pinching your jewels.
https://proudlyscottish.com/traditional-fox-full-mask/
Unless the whole thing is a windup. Not a very woke video talking about them:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5xMs0td9ts
Given people running around the country releasing beavers, these will perhaps be along soon.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-g7-tax-deal-is-an-unworkable-mess (£££)
Come to think of it, wasn't Amazon notorious for not making a profit – after aggressive reinvestment?
Why am I not surprised that some people give one answer when they're anonymous, and a different one when someone rings up, so they're easily identifiable.
The 30 per cent cut in aid (from 0.7 to 0.5% GNI) will be painful to recipients, even though it still leaves us among the more generous donors, but what is the point? Has the Prime Minister been sold an affordability argument and missed that the level of aid is tied to GNI so will automatically reflect economic contractions?
Is someone following their own agenda and jerking Boris around?
F1: having a tricky time picking between three potential bets. The agony of choice.
Well, one I'm definitely going for. It's the other two that are troublesome.
I think some major charities are inevitably saying what they were always going to say. They are always jerking people around.
We have another one this morning - Oxfam harrumphing about "15% is not enough"; they didn't need to put that out, as it is so self-stereotyped that anyone could have assumed it was what they would say.
For practical politics, I think that the Gov should perhaps have pivoted a big chunk of ODA to COVI for one to two years, then put some of it into vaccine initiatives whilst applying appropriate pressure to teh Aid establishment.
Anyhoo - I have a day to spend on a roof.
Have a good day all, and stay safe @Foxy. Hope there are no sporran-makers in Leicester.
Betting PostF1: backed two things at the race (both Ladbrokes with boost):
Under 15.5 classified finishers at 2.35
Gasly to be winner outside the big four, 12
For the reasoning and some other betting ideas that were tempting but I didn't go for, give my pre-race ramble a read:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/06/azerbaijan-pre-race-2021.html
As an aside, I'm wondering about altering my betting approach a bit and making more bets with smaller sums. Hmm.
I wrote about this very issue about 24 hours ago on this very board, and specifically pointed to ways to get operating margins below 10%.
(McKesson, AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health...)
The question is whether Boris has been tricked into making this cut which is economically unnecessary (since it is already a percentage), breaks his own manifesto pledge, and is opposed by the Conservative great and good.
And if so, who is the Machiavellian puppet-master jerking the Prime Minister's chain?
The Diadochi era, or the Knights of Saint John defending Rhodes against Suleiman the Magnificent.
However.
Just because a bitter dishonest psycho is saying something, doesn't mean it can't be true.
Looking at BoJo's record over the years, it's hard to infer much in the way of political belief, except that he should sit in the Big Chair. Without his own North Star to navigate by, it's unsurprising that others will seek to persuade him to follow theirs and the PM will find that hard to resist.
Plus sex, tournaments and the odd strolling minstrel.
What’s not to like?
Or we could go back earlier and do something with Aethelred the Unready. What a spectacular loser he really was, but his life was just extraordinary.
Most sensible people thought there was a chance it would go ahead and a chance that some restrictions (particularly on WFH and masks in public transport but hopefully not on social distancing) will continue for a period of time.
This government doesn’t like or desire the restrictions. There are very real costs associated. They are trying to balance between cost and public health. I personally think they are being over cautious - that’s the way that the politics drives them - but they aren’t power hungry maniacal wanna-be dictators like you seem to think
So don’t try changing the goalposts so you can claim some triumphant foresight when the likely happens.
Large charities are just big businesses and lobbying organisations in all but name. I have little time for them and their endless press releases recycled as news reports.
Mind you there is a vested interest here as many of these charities are recipients of this aid money.
I’m so sorry for your loss too.
I don't think it'll be quiet, though. It might be, but the last three races there have had a total of 18 cars that failed to finish.
The dreadful thing is that it's like a very slow-motion car crash. You KNOW what's happening, what's going to happen and there's SFA you, or anyone else, can do about it. At the moment, anyway.
Fortunately the MND charity is very good, and few, if any, quacks and charlatans get involved.
The firm her husband worked for were very good about time off and 'fortunately', if that's the right word, she deteriorated quite quickly.
Coronavirus live news: Tony Blair calls for greater freedoms for fully vaccinated people in UK
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1401439948981555203?s=20
Even the French - the FRENCH - are ahead of us on this.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/05/g7-tax-agreement-little-cheer/
Like others, I’m waiting to see what any proposal actually does in practice - especially in the USA, where most of the target companies are listed and headquartered, and their politicians are famous for legislative shenanigans.
Almost as though he was making shit up.
That said, I think the real problem is apart from his wilder and probably shortly to be ignored allegations, his character sketches - the really interesting part - didn’t tell us anything very new.
For three wks, Belgium's top virologist and his family have been in hiding after being targeted by a far-right soldier who has a vendetta for virologists and #COVID19 lockdowns. The well-armed military shooting instructor is eluding a big dragnet...
https://twitter.com/steveashleyplus/status/1401119906486181892
It works if lots of people with links follow those links - for me that's diabetic, or local, charities, amongst others.
If my mum's probate finally emerges from the family court, my plan is to try and find a reasonably substantial donation to a local charity for part of a Covid recovery worker for a year for the local parish.
Admin, admin...
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1401434052197076997?s=20
Israel has shown this. Data from Bolton showed it too.
Annual tweaks to take account of variants will be the norm.
It will be a constant battle. Virus v vaccine.
I don’t like the 0.7% model though. We should spend as much on quality projects as appropriate. The issue with the 0.7% is we ended up shovelling cash into crappy multilateral programmes (the EU one in particular - and this is nothing to do with my views on the EU it’s just crap - which I believe we give over £1bn a year to).
https://www.thefore.org/news/the-fore-announces-its-spring-2021-grantees/
Which country made a big thing of delaying second doses to max out on first doses? It made sense at the time, but ...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/02/boris-johnson-faces-huge-tory-rebellion-cuts-foreign-aid/
Heterologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 prime-boost vaccination elicits potent neutralizing antibody responses and T cell reactivity
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.30.21257971v1
Self-reported solicited symptoms after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 prime were in line with previous reports and less severe after the BNT162b2 boost. Antibody titers increased significantly over time resulting in strong neutralization titers 2 weeks after the BNT162b2 boost. Neutralizing activity against the prevalent strain B.1.1.7 was 3.9-fold higher than in individuals receiving homologous BNT162b2 vaccination, only 2-fold reduced for variant of concern B.1.351, and similar for variant B.1.617. In addition, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells reacted to SARS-CoV-2 spike peptide stimulus 2 weeks after the full vaccination.
For example funding secondary education for young girls in East Africa is the programme that has had the biggest single impact on combatting radicalism in the area. (The theory is that educated women + microfinance = small businesses. These lead to a stake in society and give them the freedom to choose their partners. And funnily enough they would rather pair up with stable productive members of society than radicals. And young men are smart enough to realise that if they want sex then they need to smarten up their act…)
Personally I see money spent on preventing terrorism rather than combatting the ill-effects as a really sensible investment. Too many people have some vision of the old-style type of aid writing cheques to our favourite dictators and kleptocrats. It’s really not like that anymore.*
* of course there will be mistakes made & im not speaking for the multilateral programmes, but DfID is pretty damn good. I just hope it survives the tender embrace of the FCO
The 0.7% target does generate a lot of waste though, and money goes on crap programmes just because we need to spend it. It’s a lot better than it used to be though, Mitchell did a good job on that. As noted by others, very few countries come close to the target aid spending. This year, we should drop pretty much everything that’s not committed already, and build a vaccine factory or two in the UK to supply the world.
Why do we have to be forced by the government to squander money we don't have?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGzDLpsoq5Y Here are two:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEX21WgJzA8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12HMw2JhDnY
She really needs a visit, particularly from either or preferably both of her daughters who are accustomed to dealing, in short order, with 'difficult' officialdom.
US: 40.86%
UK: 39.48%
Spain 21.94%
Italy 20.81
Germany 19.99%
France 17.85%
But yes, the little spreaders should be quarantined if they travel abroad unvaccinated.
Can't see it doing him any harm.
The Blue column is basically irrelevant at the moment because there are hardly any countries in it that are letting UK travellers in.
But it’s very impressive the way that you dismiss a thoughtful argument with “well even it it works in reality” rather than engaging with the excellent work that has been done in the last decade precisely to make sure it works in reality!
*look at the statistics
The emphasis on first doses during the winter helped bring infection rates down and then the switch towards second doses in the spring gave deeper protection to the vulnerable.
Looks like Boris got lucky again.
What if it’s decided that the ethical basis for vaccinating children is wrong?