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The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks – politicalbetting.com

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  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    In the same way that I am maybe guilty of normalcy bias, you are possibly falling for confirmation bias. I have an open mind, but maybe my threshold is higher than yours for this.
    I concede that there may be a big hoodwinking going on. But to Leon’s point, that in itself would be a bigger story than anything else happening right now. So why is everyone ignoring it? It also starts to enter conspiracy theory territory in a way that feels less plausible to me than the alternative.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,482
    On EU opening up, some of the behaviour by individual countries seems bizarre. There are only a very few places with COVID under control, and some (eg Belgium) opening up too soon, with active single vaccine doses in 20-30% of people.

    There are huge differences between COVID in circulation, and continuing death rates, and the bloody EU trying to force free travel and open borders on everyone.

    Here is a sample of countries between 10 and 20 million pop.




  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I wouldn't send my kids to Eton even if I could afford it given what I read about Trendy Hendy.
    The Community has him on a short leash
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Bullington Club sounds like gang of thugs too viscous & uncontrollable to have graduated from even a low-class, no-account Borstal.
    Viscous thugs will come to a sticky end
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    I wouldn't send my kids to Eton even if I could afford it given what I read about Trendy Hendy.
    I'm happy enough sending mine to the local (good) comp. I'm investing in bricks and mortar and will own a decent house when I retire, whereas the council house my nan bought in Liverpool was worth only a few thousand when she died. I have my own ambitions, and I don't see how stopping others going to a school they pay for would change that. If they were banned, there would be some other club or sport or something that they would be able to pay for to get the same privilege so why get riled up about it. Hopefully my kids will be in a position to worry about that sort of thing!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,322
    Former City minister Lord Myners, a vocal public critic of the disgraced finance firm Greensill Capital, told its billionaire founder he was “at your service” and assured him negative media coverage would be forgotten and would “wrap fish and chips in no time”, newly published emails show.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/18/i-am-at-your-service-emails-reveal-myners-link-to-lex-greensill
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506
    For those so inclined, the first Eurovision 2021 semi-final is on BBC4 right now!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617
    Leon said:

    I have no clue what is happening and in that it seems I am joined by Obama, so that's OK

    I overcame my normalcy bias early with Covid, I am trying to do that again, but without going mad. Aliens? Really?? Why are they here? Where from? Why do we get such crappy photos? What's the point in their watching us?

    I also find it hard to believe that the biggest story since World War 2 (Covid) would be immediately followed by the biggest story in the history of the planet (aliens are here). All that in 18 months?

    However, as I say, I can't find any wholly convincing non-alien explanation yet. Perhaps it is all a total head-fuck by the Americans to freak out the Chinese (as they assume hegemony) but that's an awful lot of people to conspire together, and an awful lot of sensible people risking the accusation of total insanity. Hmm

    I also think some people are just scared of the alien hypothesis. It is super scary. It is meeting a deity
    There could be a link with the odd weather too. It's not totally impossible.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Charles said:

    Viscous thugs will come to a sticky end
    Unless they slide out of it! As per usual with that set!!

    And YOU!!! You should be . . . a proofreader . . .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    kinabalu said:

    There could be a link with the odd weather too. It's not totally impossible.
    AND the lab leak theory AND GPT-3 and Gaza.

    A Grand Unified Theory of Dystopian Weirdness
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,031
    A nurse who cared for the prime minister when he was seriously ill with coronavirus has resigned, hitting out at the government's 1% pay rise offer and what she says is its lack of respect for the profession
    https://trib.al/wYK4oTz
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Unless they slide out of it! As per usual with that set!!

    And YOU!!! You should be . . . a proofreader . . .
    I just assumed you were calling them thick...
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,475

    Unless they slide out of it! As per usual with that set!!

    And YOU!!! You should be . . . a proofreader . . .
    Sounds like a jammy job.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 765
    Here's Trump giving an uncharacteristically sober answer on UAP's:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDom6wNYb9w

    Logically, I tend towards Carl Jung's analysis that we see something - it may be real, it may be coming from our own psyches, we don't know what it is, our interpretation in our current state is a reflection on our fears about our own advancements in technology, previously we would have interpreted the same experiences religiously or more mystically. Personally, I believe that VALIS is real.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Unless they slide out of it! As per usual with that set!!

    And YOU!!! You should be . . . a proofreader . . .
    Attention to detail was hammered into me as a youngster
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As to the future, I was musing on what the reaction of a Conservative activist would have been if, in the summer of 1979, you had told him or her the Party would win the next three General Elections and be in power until 1997.

    I picture a rather unpleasant uninhibited bout of guffawing.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,576
    Scott_xP said:

    A nurse who cared for the prime minister when he was seriously ill with coronavirus has resigned, hitting out at the government's 1% pay rise offer and what she says is its lack of respect for the profession
    https://trib.al/wYK4oTz

    And is also keen to travel and maybe go home to no, like countless other Kiwis and Aussies over the generations. It really is a free hit to blame the government for low pay, but for all those who demand higher salaries, who will stump up the extra taxes? Teresa May tried that idea for social care and it didn’t go that well...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506
    So UFOs have now been "woked" into UAPs?

    Blimey!
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    alex_ said:

    All of these "scary" models being used to urge caution just seem to continually assume an almost limitless supply of victims to infect and make seriously ill. Which is just totally at odds with a country of enormously high levels of vaccination across vulnerable, and frankly, not very vulnerable groups. Which is just not realistic short of the vaccinations offering no protection and/or suddenly becoming dramatically more dangerous for younger people. There's just a massive wall of vaccinated people standing in the way of any even semi-serious outbreak doing anything other than fizzling out pretty rapidly.

    Your criticisms are justified in the context of a world with no vaccines, but that is not this world now.

    alex_ said:

    All of these "scary" models being used to urge caution just seem to continually assume an almost limitless supply of victims to infect and make seriously ill. Which is just totally at odds with a country of enormously high levels of vaccination across vulnerable, and frankly, not very vulnerable groups. Which is just not realistic short of the vaccinations offering no protection and/or suddenly becoming dramatically more dangerous for younger people. There's just a massive wall of vaccinated people standing in the way of any even semi-serious outbreak doing anything other than fizzling out pretty rapidly.

    Your criticisms are justified in the context of a world with no vaccines, but that is not this world now.

    Apologies Alex, I may have got the science wrong then.

    I understood you could have two jabs and still get COVID and spread it.

    I also understood you could have COVID quite mildly, but a next occurrence of getting it you could be quite ill - long COVID.

    I don’t think I am wrong that these things play in waves, leaving us not 100% sure what is going to happen. 😕

    That doesn’t take away from how brilliant the vaccination programme is, and the fight back is going good. 🤙

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,322
    edited May 2021

    And is also keen to travel and maybe go home to no, like countless other Kiwis and Aussies over the generations. It really is a free hit to blame the government for low pay, but for all those who demand higher salaries, who will stump up the extra taxes? Teresa May tried that idea for social care and it didn’t go that well...
    And also said she hoped to return in the future....

    I imagine many NHS staff are absolutely burned out. Dr Foxy suggestion of some bonus time off seemed better than a pay rise, but I am not sure how you cover all that, especially with the big backlogs in treating other diseases.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,148
    TimT said:

    But I thought that it was precisely in the outer reaches of galaxies, not the centres, that life was more likely to emerge.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/12/most-likely-spots-life-milky-way
    We'd still be a backwater, relative to what is likely to be of interest to aliens.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    I picture a rather unpleasant uninhibited bout of guffawing.
    And if you'd told a Labour activist, in the summer of 1997, their Party would win the next couple of General Elections and be in power until 2010?

    I'm guessing you'd find the guffawing endearing rather than unpleasant?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    So UFOs have now been "woked" into UAPs?

    Blimey!

    But of course - 'UFO' is just so xenomorphophobic these days.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617
    isam said:

    Sir Keir's Leadership Approval Ratings since he took over to present (Blue Gross Positives, Orange Net Satisfaction)


    That's a striking visual. Is it going on a tee shirt?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,007
    It could be the Tardis disguised as an alien craft.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    rpjs said:

    Off the top of my head, I can think of five scenarios, if these recent UAPs are a) real, and b) as anomalous as claimed (i.e. capable of non-ballistic motion etc). In ascending order of awfulness:

    1) They're human and they're "ours"

    They are advanced technology created by and under the control of the US, with or without some of the US's leading allies. They have been concealed from the regular military, as well as the general public, for reasons. Possibly not to provoke Putin or Xi to realize that their nuclear deterrent is for naught so they might as well use it rather than lose it and hope they might just come out top from a nuclear holocaust caused by their first strike. We're getting "told" now because the US has enough of this new kit now to protect itself (and hopefully the rest of the West) from a such a use-it-or-lose-it first strike from the Russians and/or Chinese.

    2) They're human and they're "theirs"

    I.e. as above but they are built and controlled by Russia and/or China (or maybe Germany or France or the UK but I think that's less likely). In which case, why haven't Putin and/or Xi used the tech to further their goals? Surely Kiev if not Juneau would be back under the double-headed eagle by now if it was the Russians, and the Chinese would hardly be bothering to rain used boosters on the Maldives if was them.

    3) They're not human and they're extra-terrestrial

    In fact they'd have to be extra-solar. Biggest problem is that even with tech that makes FTL travel trivially easy, why would they come all this way just to troll the US Navy? Unless DNA was right about "teasers"

    4) They're not human but they are terrestrial

    Elves or demons anyone? Stories of extra-dimensional, supernatural beings living alongside us but not exactly with us go back to the roots of human folklore. Given how these entities seem to behave in those stories, I think I'd prefer the aliens.

    5) We're in a simulation

    And they script-writers we've had up to now got fired and they new ones are throwing the kitchen sink in to keep the ratings up.

    None of the above scenarios make me feel very happy.
    Yes, probabilistically I’d rather it all gets put back in the box, as my wife says “until long after anyone I’ve ever cared about is already dead”.

    The recent behaviour of senior US officials indicates that won’t be happening.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,322
    edited May 2021
    Paul Pogba and Amad carrying the Palestine flag around Old Trafford..and we have the police lady in trouble for showing her support....

    Imagine particularly the police officer is very confused, take the knee for BLM, absolutely fine, say free palestine, and you are under investigation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,420
    rpjs said:

    I think the showrunners of our simulation got to the end of their source material, and just like Benioff and Weiss with Game of Thrones, they're flailing around trying to find a good way to resolve the series.
    The simulation theory is rather more seriously considers by scientists. The maths/physics is rather easier to explain than interstellar tourists.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    kinabalu said:

    There could be a link with the odd weather too. It's not totally impossible.
    When is Boris going to fix the weather 😡
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    rpjs said:

    Off the top of my head, I can think of five scenarios, if these recent UAPs are a) real, and b) as anomalous as claimed (i.e. capable of non-ballistic motion etc). In ascending order of awfulness:

    1) They're human and they're "ours"

    They are advanced technology created by and under the control of the US, with or without some of the US's leading allies. They have been concealed from the regular military, as well as the general public, for reasons. Possibly not to provoke Putin or Xi to realize that their nuclear deterrent is for naught so they might as well use it rather than lose it and hope they might just come out top from a nuclear holocaust caused by their first strike. We're getting "told" now because the US has enough of this new kit now to protect itself (and hopefully the rest of the West) from a such a use-it-or-lose-it first strike from the Russians and/or Chinese.

    2) They're human and they're "theirs"

    I.e. as above but they are built and controlled by Russia and/or China (or maybe Germany or France or the UK but I think that's less likely). In which case, why haven't Putin and/or Xi used the tech to further their goals? Surely Kiev if not Juneau would be back under the double-headed eagle by now if it was the Russians, and the Chinese would hardly be bothering to rain used boosters on the Maldives if was them.

    3) They're not human and they're extra-terrestrial

    In fact they'd have to be extra-solar. Biggest problem is that even with tech that makes FTL travel trivially easy, why would they come all this way just to troll the US Navy? Unless DNA was right about "teasers"

    4) They're not human but they are terrestrial

    Elves or demons anyone? Stories of extra-dimensional, supernatural beings living alongside us but not exactly with us go back to the roots of human folklore. Given how these entities seem to behave in those stories, I think I'd prefer the aliens.

    5) We're in a simulation

    And they script-writers we've had up to now got fired and they new ones are throwing the kitchen sink in to keep the ratings up.

    None of the above scenarios make me feel very happy.
    Whatever it is, it’s a huge threat to life on earth. They could trigger off nuclear catastrophe
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,576
    gealbhan said:

    Apologies Alex, I may have got the science wrong then.

    I understood you could have two jabs and still get COVID and spread it.

    I also understood you could have COVID quite mildly, but a next occurrence of getting it you could be quite ill - long COVID.

    I don’t think I am wrong that these things play in waves, leaving us not 100% sure what is going to happen. 😕

    That doesn’t take away from how brilliant the vaccination programme is, and the fight back is going good. 🤙

    We don’t really know about how much people will be able spread Covid after they have had two jabs yet. The cdc thinks not much, and has said so this week, and now in the us fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks. It’s possible some will still get ill (no vaccine will be 100%). It’s possible asymptomatic spread from vaccinated People will be significant, but I suspect it won’t be. As to getting a second, worse Covid bout, I don’t think there is much evidence of this. Long Covid is surely a spectrum of things including serious physical damage (eg lung scarring etc) and possibly other things, but I don’t believe it is linked to being a second infection. You are also right about waves, however our vaccination programme clearly interferes with the natural cycle of waves, such as would have happened with Spanish flu.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,420
    moonshine said:

    People keep saying this. But it’s not just some images is it. It’s multi point radar matching multiple eye witness, with video and infrared. And multiple incidents. And so we’re told by an ex US Cabinet member, sonar and satellite imagery.
    Were you not claiming the existence of physical evidence recently ?
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188
    I'm having so much fun on my family history..

    I've found 12 of my father's 16 great granparents. He knew of none of them a week ago. And I've found his family line back to Ireland, through three generations of fishmongers that he knew nothing about.

    It turns out that his Clan Macdonald of Clanranald lineaged Scottish grandmother might have married another Irishman and died in Ireland, so I might have helped my Dad on his quest for an Irish passport..

    On my mother's side I've managed to find the maternal line all the way back to an Eliza Roberts born in 1816, through nine women. And I've just let all the women who continue that line know on facebook.

    It seems to be a win.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    rpjs said:

    Off the top of my head, I can think of five scenarios, if these recent UAPs are a) real, and b) as anomalous as claimed (i.e. capable of non-ballistic motion etc). In ascending order of awfulness:

    1) They're human and they're "ours"

    They are advanced technology created by and under the control of the US, with or without some of the US's leading allies. They have been concealed from the regular military, as well as the general public, for reasons. Possibly not to provoke Putin or Xi to realize that their nuclear deterrent is for naught so they might as well use it rather than lose it and hope they might just come out top from a nuclear holocaust caused by their first strike. We're getting "told" now because the US has enough of this new kit now to protect itself (and hopefully the rest of the West) from a such a use-it-or-lose-it first strike from the Russians and/or Chinese.

    2) They're human and they're "theirs"

    I.e. as above but they are built and controlled by Russia and/or China (or maybe Germany or France or the UK but I think that's less likely). In which case, why haven't Putin and/or Xi used the tech to further their goals? Surely Kiev if not Juneau would be back under the double-headed eagle by now if it was the Russians, and the Chinese would hardly be bothering to rain used boosters on the Maldives if was them.

    3) They're not human and they're extra-terrestrial

    In fact they'd have to be extra-solar. Biggest problem is that even with tech that makes FTL travel trivially easy, why would they come all this way just to troll the US Navy? Unless DNA was right about "teasers"

    4) They're not human but they are terrestrial

    Elves or demons anyone? Stories of extra-dimensional, supernatural beings living alongside us but not exactly with us go back to the roots of human folklore. Given how these entities seem to behave in those stories, I think I'd prefer the aliens.

    5) We're in a simulation

    And they script-writers we've had up to now got fired and they new ones are throwing the kitchen sink in to keep the ratings up.

    None of the above scenarios make me feel very happy.
    A very good summary. Yes the first explanation is the most "comforting".... but I just don't buy it.

    Have we really developed brilliant hypersonic technology on the quiet, over decades, and did we master it as long ago as 2004? Or the 1990s? Or the 1970s?

    How did they keep it a secret? From everyone? Why has the US not flexed this mighty power, to keep China in check, instead allowing China to rise to equality, and assume supremacy?

    And, also, why employ this truly bizarre media technique of faking lots of UAP videos and persuading pilots to lie on camera and speculating about ET in a manner that makes everyone look mad

    I don't buy it. But then it's very hard to buy all the other scenarios, too

    Mass hallucination? They are known during plagues. Popular delusions and fearful portents in the skie
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited May 2021
    Monkeys said:

    Here's Trump giving an uncharacteristically sober answer on UAP's:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDom6wNYb9w

    Logically, I tend towards Carl Jung's analysis that we see something - it may be real, it may be coming from our own psyches, we don't know what it is, our interpretation in our current state is a reflection on our fears about our own advancements in technology, previously we would have interpreted the same experiences religiously or more mystically. Personally, I believe that VALIS is real.

    CG believed in God. 😉
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,420
    moonshine said:

    This has an element of truth but you need to consider the rapid and massive change in the nature of the conversation in America. Senior figures from politics and the security & intelligence apparatus falling over themselves to talk about it in a serious way, and say on the record that it’s more than data collection glitches. Why?
    Likely for similar reasons to you ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506
    rpjs said:



    4) They're not human but they are terrestrial

    Elves or demons anyone? Stories of extra-dimensional, supernatural beings living alongside us but not exactly with us go back to the roots of human folklore. Given how these entities seem to behave in those stories, I think I'd prefer the aliens.

    The descriptions of "aliens" by UFO-abductees are uncannily similar to the descriptions of "fairies" or "elves" dating from the middle ages.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    For those so inclined, the first Eurovision 2021 semi-final is on BBC4 right now!

    Ta, I've slammed it on - don't have access to the footie where I have first goal scorer Pulisic (presumably poor value...)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617

    And if you'd told a Labour activist, in the summer of 1997, their Party would win the next couple of General Elections and be in power until 2010?

    I'm guessing you'd find the guffawing endearing rather than unpleasant?
    No, they wouldn't guffaw. More of a warm grin but tempered by a sense of burden. The responsibility of having to deliver for working people.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    No, they wouldn't guffaw. More of a warm grin but tempered by a sense of burden. The responsibility of having to deliver for working people.
    Now that's more outlandish than the UFO talk!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,007
    New thread
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,901
    edited May 2021
    rpjs said:

    If we're really, really lucky, it'll be the Culture.
    The one Iain M. Banks that always sat a bit awkwardly with me was the one where the Culture are on Earth observing. It's the main short(ish) story in the short story collection The State Of The Art. I think it was an early thing Banks wrote.

    I found I had to sort of mentally block it from my memory records of the Culture novels because I just didn't ever really want to connect the two in my head ever for reasons I could never quite verbalise.

    On the flipside I always was impressed at his idea in The Algebraist, if i remember rightly, that basically the big alien civilisational players would deliberately cherry pick sections of population from primitive planets and embed them into the great galactic culture, so that when the primitive planet did finally bootstrap itself into the big civilisational game they would always find better, more advanced and more knowledgeable examples of their species already out there, as a sort of subtle psychological put-down reminder of their place in the grand scheme of things.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617
    Leon said:

    AND the lab leak theory AND GPT-3 and Gaza.

    A Grand Unified Theory of Dystopian Weirdness
    Yes. And how privileged we would be to live - or not - through it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Notice to Alien Lurkers - NEW THREAD
This discussion has been closed.