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The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks – politicalbetting.com
The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks – politicalbetting.com
I find it very difficult to explain such a huge change within 2-weeks even though that period did include the May 6th local elections.
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Is there not an element of people thinking he was doing well, because the media were giving him decent coverage, but now the voters have given their verdict, people think that actually he's a bit rubbish?
Taking the lead from several leading political commentators who track this, my main focus is on the "satisfaction" figure and I'm less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it's the proportion saying they are satisfied that is key. Whether they "don't know" or are not satisfied is irrelevant - they are not ready to be positive.
Pollsters struggle to register brexity white working class voters here in the same way as they struggle to register Trumpist republicans in the US.
And so the pollsters here were totally wrongfooted ahead of Hartlepool in the same way and many of the US pollsters were wrongfooted in Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Florida and North Carolina.
We can debate why, but its a definite phenomenon.
I'm of the opinion Labour could have ran Nigel Farage as their candidate and still lost.
You put your body on the line for that f8cker? you took two experimental vaccines for freedom on his say so?
Indy Sage and the Zero Covidiots are getting media attention now because they now are the contrarians. Because they've lost the war, because the schools reopened despite their hystrionics. Because the pubs reopened outdoors despite their hystrionics. Because inside the pubs reopened despite their hystrionics. Because 21 June will happen regardless of their ever more desperate shouting for attention.
What we are seeing now is the dying scream of the Zero Covidiots, Indy SAGE and the lot of them - and they provide excellent foil, airtime and clickbait for the media who can package their stories by reporting this attention seeking garbage, combined with the Middle East, then go home early they've got their reporting done.
Then the voters let the media & Sir Keir know what they thought about that petty rubbish - the worst local election results for a new Leader of the Opposition in 40 years plus the humiliating loss of a seat to a Government beginning its 12th year in power - and the smear campaign could be maintained no longer.
Essentially, Sir Keir has been weighed in the balance, and found ... unwanted.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tees-56416603
https://twitter.com/jasebyjason/status/1394397090466439168?s=21
Which is why leading political commentators say that you should look at those who are satisfied as key, not the dissatisfied. Starmer got the support that the polls always said he would - but all those not saying they were dissatisfied with Starmer turned out to vote for those they were satisfied with, which wasn't Starmer.
Gotit.
Given London voted Remain and the South East only narrowly voted Leave in comparison to the much bigger Leave votes in the North and Midlands that would confirm the post Brexit realignment of our politics, with the once safe Tory South now moving more towards Labour and the Labour heartlands of London and Wales, while the once marginal Midlands becomes a Tory safe region and the once safe Labour region of the North becomes marginal.
Interesting too that Boris now has a net lead over Starmer in Scotland, confirmation of the fact the Tories retained their place as the main opposition to the SNP in the Holyrood elections
The profesional upper middle class in wealthy suburbia is increasingly moving left liberal, it was gains in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Detroit, Phoenix and Atlanta which won Biden the electoral college, Trump still won small town and rural America comfortably
This was very poor tactics, beyond a doubt. But these swings are absurd. Surely the end of lockdown is a bigger and short term factor?
Because he's not very bright?
Enough.
They are very wary of pollsters, wary of the prevailing narrative about Trumpism and, because they need to be, often out working.
But they are there. And they are there in England, too.
Breaking: Boris: Does not see anything conclusive that we need to deviate from 21 June.
No shit, Sherlock. The dying banshee scream of Indy SAGE and the like will be loud and provide media clickbaits but we'll proceed with unlocking on schedule.
And for the record, I believe all the vaccines are completely safe and very effective.
I should not have used the word 'experimental'. Apols to all and to Mike.
Nobody can edit your original post.
The hotspot areas are all associated with vaccine refusal and there's simply no way the government should or even could continue lockdown to protect stupid people from their stupid decisions. The Tory party won't have it, Steve Baker and his group will threaten Boris with removal if he hints at giving into the zero COVID types who seem to think that the whole country should live with the consequences of a few c***s refusing the vaccine.
Hardly outfoxed.
Batley & Spen looks like a misstep though.
It is a completely unnecessary by-election, because Tracy Brabin did not have to put herself forward for the Mayoralty. She should have not stood in GE 2019 if she felt she wanted to stand for the Mayor
Brabin has left SKS in an awkward position, as Batley & Spen looks like a crapshoot.
And SKS probably can't recover from a 4th by-election defeat on the trot.
Personally (and I am not an epidemiologist, but then nor are most politicians and nor are most scientists) I do not expect to see an uptick in hospitalisations or deaths. We may see an uptick in positive tests, though I am expecting not.
However, we may still not reopen, because doing so will ultimately be a political decision. And there are powerful people - sage, politicians of all stripes, the media, and importantly, voters - who will consider it too risky, regardless of the numbers.
I'm not particularly worried about variants. But I am worried about the reaction of people to variants and to hysteria about variants.
The only crumb of optimism I cling to is that there are still people whose opinions I respect who think that we will reopen.
I think there are many potential problems facing an independent Scotland. Illegal immigration won’t be one of them.
Poor chap.
That said, Starmer's spat with Rayner, and subsequent capitulation made him look very weak.
The vaccine programme this week and next week will get most over 30s vaccinated which is another huge reduction in spreading of the virus. The cumulative reduction in hospitalisations will be absolutely massive by then because we're going to be at over 90% for over 40s and over 75% for over 30s at single dose efficacy along with almost all of groups 1-9 with two dose efficacy.
Starmer (even if it costs him his job) was right to throw Hill to the wolves.
Or maybe OGH is one?
When he talks about "The Manhattan Project", you may suspect its because he has put a thermonuclear device under the PM's chair
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/dominic-cummings-release-crucial-covid-document-boris-johnson-b935777.html
https://news.sky.com/story/prince-harry-faces-backlash-in-the-us-after-calling-first-amendment-bonkers-12309014
I think small uptick in hospitalizations also quite likely, given there will simply be more COVID around and some young people do get it bad enough to be hospitalized. But I don't expect to see much of an uptick in deaths because the vaccination rates will hopefully prevent that.
Time will tell!
It's a tricky one. I think MPs lose their seat if sentenced to one year or more in prison, or is it perhaps guilty of a crime which *can* carry that sentence.
On general criminal charges this does not see to be such an issue, which is strange.
Fiona Onasanya did not resign her seat; she was ejected by a Recall petition. Claudia Webbe, who has a date in Court already scheduled for charges around an alleged course of harassment - ie the CPS think it is a strong case - is suspended from the whip but has not resigned as an MP.
There have been a significant number of sexual harassment claims against MPs which have been anything from delusions / fictions to 'not standing up when investigated' to 'lead to guilty verdicts'. Milroy-Sloan, the complainant against Neil and Christine Hamilton for rape, even ended up in prison for perjury for 3 years.
Where does the balance lie?
I think suspension of the whip during investigation is reasonable, and defensible, then for parties to reconsider what they can do at charge and court stage.
I do not know why Mike Hill stood down as an MP, though I would punt at the likelihood that the reporting of his trial would poison the news flow in the lead up to the Local Election being a factor.