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The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    You have to pass an entrance exam to get into Harrow too, Harrow may not be as academic as Eton or Winchester or Westminster but it is not Stowe either (and even Stowe requires 55% average at Common Entrance)
    Did not David Cameron once muse that Eton was becoming too academically intensive and it was the thick sons of gentleman farmers and the aristocracy who made the place?
    Eton is catching up with Winchester and Westminster, which have always traditionally been the most academically intense of the top rank public schools if slightly less socially exclusive than Eton, with scholarships and highly competitive entrance.

    Before Cameron of course went to Eton as befits his class, along with Boris, even if their brains did not perhaps match those of Winchester educated Sunak
    The last debating competition my son was in at Durham had 8 teams from Eton, one of which ultimately won. They haven’t given up on teaching future cabinet ministers just yet.
    Oxbridge has become very wary of taking Etonians (one per college per year) so for those who miss out Durham, Exeter or St. Andrews remain popular choices. My nephew ended up at Durham.
    Plenty of Etonians at Bristol too
    Yep and Universities that they might have thought twice about previously such as Newcastle and Leeds. Very rah those now.
    Newcastle has always been popular with them: party city!
    Newcastle, more specifically Castle Leazes, was full of rahs, including one Princess Eugenie who was a student there at the same time as me, the first time round.

    I could have bumped into her in the Sinners trebles bar and never known it.
    When he was a student at Exeter, Peter Philips - Princess Anne’s son - tried to seduce my then girlfriend (also a student). He failed. Or so she told me

    Ironically, when I look back at old photos I realise that she was a dead ringer for Meghan Markle, except paler and more wistful. An absolute stunner

    Sigh
    Getting a bit of a 'did a search for her on FB' vibe tbh
    She was also the first girl to send me a nude selfie. So it must have happened around the advent of mobile phone cameras, in the early Noughties

    I was sitting in a soho club when it pinged, unheralded, onto my phone. It was a huge, sudden jolt of eroticism. Like a minor heart attack

    I’ve still got this primordial image stored on my latest phone. Very poor resolution ofc
    Do not wish to spoil the vibe but - is a minor heart attack erotic then?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,532
    Leon said:

    I wonder if I actually possess The World’s First Nude Selfie

    I could auction it off. Get Elon Musk bidding against Bill Gates

    You may fall foul of the revenge porn laws.

    Which comes with jail time.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,581
    nico679 said:

    So the government is considering using force majeure as a means to not implement the NI protocol . So basically an act of God ! More disgraceful behaviour from this cesspit administration. And in other news the U.K. can’t align its food standards to help solve many border issues because it wants to lower them when it decides to throw farmers under a bus when it makes a trade deal with Australia.

    Brexit could not happen, given the various red lines, without either: Leaving with no deal, or leaving with a deal which contained delusion and contradiction over NI. No other choices were available (counter suggestions welcome).

    Leaving with no deal would have left the contradiction firmly in the hands of the EU/RoI because it was their rules which required a regulated border and they would have had to put up barriers at the border.

    Boris left it as mostly his problem, though not entirely. Because we have left, someone's red lines are going to shift. But the political achievement is that we have left, and fulfilled the mandate without the chaos of No Deal.

    Politics is what it is - a dark grey art. Boris has been as honourable over this as is feasible.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,532
    kinabalu said:


    Do not wish to spoil the vibe but - is a minor heart attack erotic then?

    No, a stroke is erotic. Ahem.

    God I need to get my mind out of the gutter.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,560
    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,222

    kinabalu said:


    Do not wish to spoil the vibe but - is a minor heart attack erotic then?

    No, a stroke is erotic. Ahem.

    God I need to get my mind out of the gutter.
    And as for acute angina..
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,505

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,389
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    You have to pass an entrance exam to get into Harrow too, Harrow may not be as academic as Eton or Winchester or Westminster but it is not Stowe either (and even Stowe requires 55% average at Common Entrance)
    Did not David Cameron once muse that Eton was becoming too academically intensive and it was the thick sons of gentleman farmers and the aristocracy who made the place?
    Eton is catching up with Winchester and Westminster, which have always traditionally been the most academically intense of the top rank public schools if slightly less socially exclusive than Eton, with scholarships and highly competitive entrance.

    Before Cameron of course went to Eton as befits his class, along with Boris, even if their brains did not perhaps match those of Winchester educated Sunak
    The last debating competition my son was in at Durham had 8 teams from Eton, one of which ultimately won. They haven’t given up on teaching future cabinet ministers just yet.
    Oxbridge has become very wary of taking Etonians (one per college per year) so for those who miss out Durham, Exeter or St. Andrews remain popular choices. My nephew ended up at Durham.
    Plenty of Etonians at Bristol too
    Yep and Universities that they might have thought twice about previously such as Newcastle and Leeds. Very rah those now.
    Newcastle has always been popular with them: party city!
    Newcastle, more specifically Castle Leazes, was full of rahs, including one Princess Eugenie who was a student there at the same time as me, the first time round.

    I could have bumped into her in the Sinners trebles bar and never known it.
    When he was a student at Exeter, Peter Philips - Princess Anne’s son - tried to seduce my then girlfriend (also a student). He failed. Or so she told me

    Ironically, when I look back at old photos I realise that she was a dead ringer for Meghan Markle, except paler and more wistful. An absolute stunner

    Sigh
    Getting a bit of a 'did a search for her on FB' vibe tbh
    She was also the first girl to send me a nude selfie. So it must have happened around the advent of mobile phone cameras, in the early Noughties

    I was sitting in a soho club when it pinged, unheralded, onto my phone. It was a huge, sudden jolt of eroticism. Like a minor heart attack

    I’ve still got this primordial image stored on my latest phone. Very poor resolution ofc
    Do not wish to spoil the vibe but - is a minor heart attack erotic then?
    The French call an orgasm “La petite mort” - the “little death”. So, yes
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    You have to pass an entrance exam to get into Harrow too, Harrow may not be as academic as Eton or Winchester or Westminster but it is not Stowe either (and even Stowe requires 55% average at Common Entrance)
    Did not David Cameron once muse that Eton was becoming too academically intensive and it was the thick sons of gentleman farmers and the aristocracy who made the place?
    Eton is catching up with Winchester and Westminster, which have always traditionally been the most academically intense of the top rank public schools if slightly less socially exclusive than Eton, with scholarships and highly competitive entrance.

    Before Cameron of course went to Eton as befits his class, along with Boris, even if their brains did not perhaps match those of Winchester educated Sunak
    The last debating competition my son was in at Durham had 8 teams from Eton, one of which ultimately won. They haven’t given up on teaching future cabinet ministers just yet.
    Oxbridge has become very wary of taking Etonians (one per college per year) so for those who miss out Durham, Exeter or St. Andrews remain popular choices. My nephew ended up at Durham.
    Plenty of Etonians at Bristol too
    Yep and Universities that they might have thought twice about previously such as Newcastle and Leeds. Very rah those now.
    Newcastle has always been popular with them: party city!
    Newcastle, more specifically Castle Leazes, was full of rahs, including one Princess Eugenie who was a student there at the same time as me, the first time round.

    I could have bumped into her in the Sinners trebles bar and never known it.
    When he was a student at Exeter, Peter Philips - Princess Anne’s son - tried to seduce my then girlfriend (also a student). He failed. Or so she told me

    Ironically, when I look back at old photos I realise that she was a dead ringer for Meghan Markle, except paler and more wistful. An absolute stunner

    Sigh
    Getting a bit of a 'did a search for her on FB' vibe tbh
    She was also the first girl to send me a nude selfie. So it must have happened around the advent of mobile phone cameras, in the early Noughties

    I was sitting in a soho club when it pinged, unheralded, onto my phone. It was a huge, sudden jolt of eroticism. Like a minor heart attack

    I’ve still got this primordial image stored on my latest phone. Very poor resolution ofc
    I still have some life drawings of my first serious girlfriend.
    Unfortunately melancholy tends to overwhelm the erotic charge.
    Picturing DiCaprio and Winslet here, TUD, needless to say.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,560

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,222
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,095

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    It was an ideological difference on education, nothing expert about it
  • Options
    Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 178
    edited May 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the South will now be a better prospect for Starmer Labour (and the LDs) than the North and Midlands then on the new Opinium approval ratings and that would reflect the local election results too.

    Given London voted Remain and the South East only narrowly voted Leave in comparison to the much bigger Leave votes in the North and Midlands that would confirm the post Brexit realignment of our politics, with the once safe Tory South now moving more towards Labour and the Labour heartlands of London and Wales, while the once marginal Midlands becomes a Tory safe region and the once safe Labour region of the North becomes marginal.

    Interesting too that Boris now has a net lead over Starmer in Scotland, confirmation of the fact the Tories retained their place as the main opposition to the SNP in the Holyrood elections

    There is no path for a Labour government through the Southern shires. Simply none. They either are in a very distant second or in third place in most of the seats they could feasibly win in the South, even on big swings.

    And thus Labours problem is clear, the realignment of British politics is asymmetrical, the Tories have gained large chunks of the white working class votes and crucially seats whilst there is no near term prospect of Labour making up their losses in the South outside of London.

    Unless Labour can have some sort of left pact with the libdems and SNP I dont see them ever being in government again, unless the tories mess up really really badly. And even then a pact with the SNP might put off enough English voters to keep Labour out of power.

    They could go rightwards on social and cultural issues to win a majority without Scotland but the membership and the cabinet won't accept that.


    Labour are to put it mildly, trapped.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    Ludgrove and Eton both recommended he went to a different school. His grandmother (who appoints the Provost of Eton as her personal representative on the board and therefore has some sway) insisted. She wanted him close - this was shortly after Diana’s death - and she had him round to stay at her pad nearby most weekends
    Connections eh.

    How do we remove this unelected ruler?

    It is an insult to millions of working class kids in the country who do not have these connections and cannot improve their lot in life.
    Whether Harry went to Eton or Stowe would not have made the slightest difference to their life chances (or indeed his as he would be a multimillionaire through inheritance anyway), it was closing most of the grammar schools that reduced working class kids chances of getting into top universities and the top professions.
    You have just reminded me why I am not a Conservative.

    Selection at aged 11 is immoral. Wealthy parents paying for 11 plus tuition to pass the exam at the expense of smarter kids who can't afford that luxury.

    I went to a great, properly funded comprehensive in the mid seventies. Students in my year were high achievers in later life. This was followed by a grammar school where the second (bottom) set students were referred to as "less able". These "less able" students were the council house kids who didn't make 5 gces. In my book if 30 children passed the 11 plus and yet failed to achieve a mere 5 O levels that proves the system failed.
    Who was in charge in the mid-70s?
    And the party to which you allude turned that failing Grammar school into a comprehensive in 1978.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,505

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,505
    Nunu3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the South will now be a better prospect for Starmer Labour (and the LDs) than the North and Midlands then on the new Opinium approval ratings and that would reflect the local election results too.

    Given London voted Remain and the South East only narrowly voted Leave in comparison to the much bigger Leave votes in the North and Midlands that would confirm the post Brexit realignment of our politics, with the once safe Tory South now moving more towards Labour and the Labour heartlands of London and Wales, while the once marginal Midlands becomes a Tory safe region and the once safe Labour region of the North becomes marginal.

    Interesting too that Boris now has a net lead over Starmer in Scotland, confirmation of the fact the Tories retained their place as the main opposition to the SNP in the Holyrood elections

    There is no path for a Labour government through the Southern shires. Simply none. They either are in a very distant second or in third place in most of the seats they could feasibly win in the South, even on big swings.

    And thus Labours problem is clear, the realignment of British politics is asymmetrical, the Tories have gained large chunks of the white working class votes and crucially seats whilst there is no near term prospect of Labour making up their losses in the South outside of London.

    Unless Labour can have some sort of left pact with the libdems and SNP I dont see them ever being in government again, unless the tories mess up really really badly. And even then a pact with the SNP might put off enough English voters to keep Labour out of power.

    They could go rightwards on social and cultural issues to win a majority without Scotland but the membership and the cabinet won't accept that.


    Labour are to put it mildly, trapped.
    I'm not so sure - there is a vast mass of Social Democratic policies that would appeal from the hard left to the centre of British politics. Probably even to the right of centre.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,389
    And the thunderclaps rumble over London. Again. And the cold steel rain pummels the pavements. Again
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,095
    edited May 2021
    Nunu3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the South will now be a better prospect for Starmer Labour (and the LDs) than the North and Midlands then on the new Opinium approval ratings and that would reflect the local election results too.

    Given London voted Remain and the South East only narrowly voted Leave in comparison to the much bigger Leave votes in the North and Midlands that would confirm the post Brexit realignment of our politics, with the once safe Tory South now moving more towards Labour and the Labour heartlands of London and Wales, while the once marginal Midlands becomes a Tory safe region and the once safe Labour region of the North becomes marginal.

    Interesting too that Boris now has a net lead over Starmer in Scotland, confirmation of the fact the Tories retained their place as the main opposition to the SNP in the Holyrood elections

    There is no path for a Labour government through the Southern shires. Simply none. They either are in a very distant second or in third place in most of the seats they could feasibly win in the South, even on big swings.

    And thus Labours problem is clear, the realignment of British politics is asymmetrical, the Tories have gained large chunks of the white working class votes and crucially seats whilst there is no near term prospect of Labour making up their losses in the South outside of London.

    Unless Labour can have some sort of left pact with the libdems and SNP I dont see them ever being in government again, unless the tories mess up really really badly. And even then a pact with the SNP might put off enough English voters to keep Labour out of power.

    They could go rightwards on social and cultural issues to win a majority without Scotland but the membership and the cabinet won't accept that.


    Labour are to put it mildly, trapped.
    Yes but there are plenty of Tory seats in the South vulnerable to the LDs like Esher and Walton, St Ives, Guildford, Cheltenham, Winchester, Lewes, Wokingham etc, add them to the few Labour targets in the South like Watford and Wycombe and Hastings, Labour targets in London like Hendon, Kensington, Chipping Barnet and Chingford and Woodford Green and a handful of regained seats in the Red Wall and add the SNP and a Labour-LD-SNP government is certainly possible in 2024 even if a Labour majority is near impossible
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,053
    POSITIVE TESTS FALL
  • Options
    Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 178
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    justin124 said:

    Hartlepool has changed my view of Starmer. It was a totally unnecessary by-election for which he thoroughly deserves heavy flak. A leader should not be easily forgiven for such a self inflicted wound.

    Was it? How could it have been avoided?
    Didn't he parachute in a candidate?
    No, Justin is saying the by election itself shouldn't have been held.
    It didn't need to be held on 6th May which gave it a prominence that ultimately did Labour no favours at all and set the narrative for what were in fairness ultimately a rather mixed set of results with good results in Wales, Manchester, London and the West of England and some pretty poor results elsewhere.

    This was very poor tactics, beyond a doubt. But these swings are absurd. Surely the end of lockdown is a bigger and short term factor?
    With respect, there was no need to hold the by election at all! The MP concerned had not been convicted of a serious criminal offence for which he faced potential recall - as in the cases of Onasanya and the Brecon & Radnor MP. He was talked into resigning by Starmer - and perhaps the Chief Whip. It amounts to a very serious error of judgement on Starmer's part and raises questions re-his political 'nous' and antennae.
    He's cut a pretty sorry figure at the Tribunal. If he was still a Labour MP that would have been even more damaging. How the hell the case has not been settled is beyond my comprehension.
    The Whip should have been taken away - leaving him to sit as an Independent but no need for a by election.
    Eh? Surely it was the MP's own choice to vacate the seat rather than Labour forcing him to?

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    justin124 said:

    Hartlepool has changed my view of Starmer. It was a totally unnecessary by-election for which he thoroughly deserves heavy flak. A leader should not be easily forgiven for such a self inflicted wound.

    Was it? How could it have been avoided?
    Didn't he parachute in a candidate?
    No, Justin is saying the by election itself shouldn't have been held.
    It didn't need to be held on 6th May which gave it a prominence that ultimately did Labour no favours at all and set the narrative for what were in fairness ultimately a rather mixed set of results with good results in Wales, Manchester, London and the West of England and some pretty poor results elsewhere.

    This was very poor tactics, beyond a doubt. But these swings are absurd. Surely the end of lockdown is a bigger and short term factor?
    With respect, there was no need to hold the by election at all! The MP concerned had not been convicted of a serious criminal offence for which he faced potential recall - as in the cases of Onasanya and the Brecon & Radnor MP. He was talked into resigning by Starmer - and perhaps the Chief Whip. It amounts to a very serious error of judgement on Starmer's part and raises questions re-his political 'nous' and antennae.
    He's cut a pretty sorry figure at the Tribunal. If he was still a Labour MP that would have been even more damaging. How the hell the case has not been settled is beyond my comprehension.
    The Whip should have been taken away - leaving him to sit as an Independent but no need for a by election.
    Eh? Surely it was the MP's own choice to vacate the seat rather than Labour forcing him to?
    He was persuaded to do so. They should simply have refrained from that and simply removed the Whip.
    You're scraping the barrel here I think
    I really think not. All Labour had to do was disown him by withdrawing the Whip. I have seen no suggestion that Hill resigned his seat out of petulance when threatened with that. Moreover, he denies the allegations - which were nothing like as serious as those made against the prominent Tory MP who was arrested by the police.
    And what good would it have done in not having a by election to Labour? So the results wouldn't seem that bad and everyone could go on pretending Keir was doing a good job? At least this way we know how crap Keir is, instead of flattering to decieve. That in the long run is better for Labour. IF they learn the lessons.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,183
    Everything’s back in the green - fingers crossed...


  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    POSITIVE TESTS FALL

    What about total tests?
  • Options
    Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 178
    Keir Starmer is the Gordon Brown of opposition leaders.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Still no major rise in cases despite the Indian variant spreading everywhere. I get a sense that it will turn out to be very similar to the Kent variant in terms of transmission.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,222
    edited May 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    You have to pass an entrance exam to get into Harrow too, Harrow may not be as academic as Eton or Winchester or Westminster but it is not Stowe either (and even Stowe requires 55% average at Common Entrance)
    Did not David Cameron once muse that Eton was becoming too academically intensive and it was the thick sons of gentleman farmers and the aristocracy who made the place?
    Eton is catching up with Winchester and Westminster, which have always traditionally been the most academically intense of the top rank public schools if slightly less socially exclusive than Eton, with scholarships and highly competitive entrance.

    Before Cameron of course went to Eton as befits his class, along with Boris, even if their brains did not perhaps match those of Winchester educated Sunak
    The last debating competition my son was in at Durham had 8 teams from Eton, one of which ultimately won. They haven’t given up on teaching future cabinet ministers just yet.
    Oxbridge has become very wary of taking Etonians (one per college per year) so for those who miss out Durham, Exeter or St. Andrews remain popular choices. My nephew ended up at Durham.
    Plenty of Etonians at Bristol too
    Yep and Universities that they might have thought twice about previously such as Newcastle and Leeds. Very rah those now.
    Newcastle has always been popular with them: party city!
    Newcastle, more specifically Castle Leazes, was full of rahs, including one Princess Eugenie who was a student there at the same time as me, the first time round.

    I could have bumped into her in the Sinners trebles bar and never known it.
    When he was a student at Exeter, Peter Philips - Princess Anne’s son - tried to seduce my then girlfriend (also a student). He failed. Or so she told me

    Ironically, when I look back at old photos I realise that she was a dead ringer for Meghan Markle, except paler and more wistful. An absolute stunner

    Sigh
    Getting a bit of a 'did a search for her on FB' vibe tbh
    She was also the first girl to send me a nude selfie. So it must have happened around the advent of mobile phone cameras, in the early Noughties

    I was sitting in a soho club when it pinged, unheralded, onto my phone. It was a huge, sudden jolt of eroticism. Like a minor heart attack

    I’ve still got this primordial image stored on my latest phone. Very poor resolution ofc
    I still have some life drawings of my first serious girlfriend.
    Unfortunately melancholy tends to overwhelm the erotic charge.
    Picturing DiCaprio and Winslet here, TUD, needless to say.
    Ah were a lad from the mean streets of Aberdeen, handy wi' a stick o' charcoal, she were from the posh side o' Dundee. It were doomed to fail, but for a couple o' delirious years..

    On an associated topic, I've been watching Mare of Easttown. I'd always thought Winslet a so so actress and quite dim on the sole basis of seeing her on Who do you Think you Are. Good tv and her performance is outstanding, US friends tell me her Pennsylvania accent is on the button. Quite revised my opinion of her.

    Edit: she was also good in The Reader which I'd forgotten about
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,702
    Leon said:

    And the thunderclaps rumble over London. Again. And the cold steel rain pummels the pavements. Again

    I think the evolution from here is starting to become clear. Several more days of awful showery weather. Then it dries up a tiny bit but gets even colder. By this point we're all close to despair, and the record books are being dusted off. Flowering fails across the already decimated vineyards of France and Germany. Covid infections remain stubbornly high as everyone stays indoors.

    Then it settles down, and slowly warms up. By June we're back into normality, or warmer.

    It's not 100 miles off what we saw from late May to late June 1995. That's the hope.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    Ludgrove and Eton both recommended he went to a different school. His grandmother (who appoints the Provost of Eton as her personal representative on the board and therefore has some sway) insisted. She wanted him close - this was shortly after Diana’s death - and she had him round to stay at her pad nearby most weekends
    Connections eh.

    How do we remove this unelected ruler?

    It is an insult to millions of working class kids in the country who do not have these connections and cannot improve their lot in life.
    Whether Harry went to Eton or Stowe would not have made the slightest difference to their life chances (or indeed his as he would be a multimillionaire through inheritance anyway), it was closing most of the grammar schools that reduced working class kids chances of getting into top universities and the top professions.
    You have just reminded me why I am not a Conservative.

    Selection at aged 11 is immoral. Wealthy parents paying for 11 plus tuition to pass the exam at the expense of smarter kids who can't afford that luxury.

    I went to a great, properly funded comprehensive in the mid seventies. Students in my year were high achievers in later life. This was followed by a grammar school where the second (bottom) set students were referred to as "less able". These "less able" students were the council house kids who didn't make 5 gces. In my book if 30 children passed the 11 plus and yet failed to achieve a mere 5 O levels that proves the system failed.
    Who was in charge in the mid-70s?
    Mrs Thatcher for some of that period, she did great as she helped to smash grammar schools, and they haven't recovered since.
    Well specifically wiki tells me from '74 - '79 we had a Labour administration. Which I think covers "mid-70s".
    She was still Education Secretary for parts of 1974.
    Mrs T. was probably Secretary of State for Education during peak conversion from secondary modern to comprehensive education. Bless her.

    Can I add the caveat that both grammar and comprehensive education has been failing for decades. Grammar schools are not the answer. Some sort of non-selective schooling with subject ability streaming might be a starting point. I would suggest mixed ability schooling doesn't work in academic subjects, but then why are School Principals paid the same as the Prime Minister if they haven't the wit to organise their schools to work properly?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    You have to pass an entrance exam to get into Harrow too, Harrow may not be as academic as Eton or Winchester or Westminster but it is not Stowe either (and even Stowe requires 55% average at Common Entrance)
    Did not David Cameron once muse that Eton was becoming too academically intensive and it was the thick sons of gentleman farmers and the aristocracy who made the place?
    Eton is catching up with Winchester and Westminster, which have always traditionally been the most academically intense of the top rank public schools if slightly less socially exclusive than Eton, with scholarships and highly competitive entrance.

    Before Cameron of course went to Eton as befits his class, along with Boris, even if their brains did not perhaps match those of Winchester educated Sunak
    The last debating competition my son was in at Durham had 8 teams from Eton, one of which ultimately won. They haven’t given up on teaching future cabinet ministers just yet.
    Oxbridge has become very wary of taking Etonians (one per college per year) so for those who miss out Durham, Exeter or St. Andrews remain popular choices. My nephew ended up at Durham.
    Plenty of Etonians at Bristol too
    Yep and Universities that they might have thought twice about previously such as Newcastle and Leeds. Very rah those now.
    Newcastle has always been popular with them: party city!
    Newcastle, more specifically Castle Leazes, was full of rahs, including one Princess Eugenie who was a student there at the same time as me, the first time round.

    I could have bumped into her in the Sinners trebles bar and never known it.
    When he was a student at Exeter, Peter Philips - Princess Anne’s son - tried to seduce my then girlfriend (also a student). He failed. Or so she told me

    Ironically, when I look back at old photos I realise that she was a dead ringer for Meghan Markle, except paler and more wistful. An absolute stunner

    Sigh
    Getting a bit of a 'did a search for her on FB' vibe tbh
    She was also the first girl to send me a nude selfie. So it must have happened around the advent of mobile phone cameras, in the early Noughties

    I was sitting in a soho club when it pinged, unheralded, onto my phone. It was a huge, sudden jolt of eroticism. Like a minor heart attack

    I’ve still got this primordial image stored on my latest phone. Very poor resolution ofc
    I still have some life drawings of my first serious girlfriend.
    Unfortunately melancholy tends to overwhelm the erotic charge.
    Picturing DiCaprio and Winslet here, TUD, needless to say.
    Ah were a lad from the mean streets of Aberdeen, handy wi' a stick o' charcoal, she were from the posh side o' Dundee. It were doomed to fail, but for a couple of delirious years..

    On an associated topic, I've been watching Mare of Easttown. I'd always thought Winslet a so so actress and quite dim on the sole basis of seeing her on Who do you Think you Are. Good tv and her performance is outstanding, US friends tell me her Pennsylvania accent is on the button. Quite revised my opinion of her.
    I wouldn't have put you down as a slave to Rupert Murdoch.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,622
    Giuliani Running for Governor of New York! No NOT Rudy, who famously lacked the . . . intestinal fortitude to run against Hilary Clinton for US Senate, or anybody for NY Governor. . . .

    Politico.com - Andrew Giuliani announces run for New York governor
    His father, Rudy Giuliani, remains under intense legal scrutiny.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/18/andrew-giuliani-new-york-governor-489235

    Andrew Giuliani, the son of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and a former Trump White House official, announced on Tuesday that he would run for New York governor next year.

    “I’m a politician out of the womb. It’s in my DNA,” Andrew Giuliani, a Republican, told The New York Post in an interview, hyping a potential general election faceoff against incumbent Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

    “Giuliani vs. Cuomo. Holy smokes. It’s Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier. We can sell tickets at Madison Square Garden,” he said.

    Andrew Giuliani, who served as a special assistant to former President Donald Trump, had publicly flirted with a gubernatorial bid for weeks, telling The Washington Examiner last month that he was “heavily considering” mounting a campaign.

    Andrew Giuliani also told POLITICO last month that he had spoken to Trump about a potential run. “We talked about New York politics and went through the numbers on this, and I explained to him where I think I would be able to make inroads that no other potential candidate would be able to,” the candidate said at the time.

    But Andrew Giuliani’s official campaign launch on Tuesday comes at a precarious legal moment for his father and Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, whose Manhattan home and office were raided by FBI agents three weeks ago as part of prosecutors’ long-running probe into the elder Giuliani’s dealings in Ukraine.

    The 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary has also seen the entry of another ardent Trump supporter, Long Island-area Rep. Lee Zeldin, who announced his campaign last month and could complicate Andrew Giuliani’s path to the GOP nomination.

    Despite the party’s apparently improved odds for displacing Cuomo — who is facing an impeachment investigation stemming from multiple accusations of sexual harassment and alleged mismanagement of the state’s pandemic response — a more moderate Republican challenger who could run competitively statewide has yet to emerge.

    And although Giuliani and Zeldin are excited at the prospect of taking on Cuomo, the governor has not formally launched his campaign for a fourth term. Cuomo was first elected in 2010 and has previously said he would seek reelection in 2022.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235

    POSITIVE TESTS FALL

    Yep - although there is some jiggery pokery going on with negative PCR after positive lateral flow. But still a good sign.
  • Options
    Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 178
    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Probably very easy to manipulate.......
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235
    DougSeal said:

    Everything’s back in the green - fingers crossed...


    Deaths is very significant on 'murder Tuesday'. Scrap the masks now!
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,053
    DEATHS/WEEK NOW L
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    And the thunderclaps rumble over London. Again. And the cold steel rain pummels the pavements. Again

    I think the evolution from here is starting to become clear. Several more days of awful showery weather. Then it dries up a tiny bit but gets even colder. By this point we're all close to despair, and the record books are being dusted off. Flowering fails across the already decimated vineyards of France and Germany. Covid infections remain stubbornly high as everyone stays indoors.

    Then it settles down, and slowly warms up. By June we're back into normality, or warmer.

    It's not 100 miles off what we saw from late May to late June 1995. That's the hope.
    Yes, the high pressure moving in from the Azores is pretty well supported from midweek next. But Leon can only ‘analyse’ the weather outside his own window.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235
    MaxPB said:

    Still no major rise in cases despite the Indian variant spreading everywhere. I get a sense that it will turn out to be very similar to the Kent variant in terms of transmission.

    Isn't this what has been suggested from India? Their problems are the Kent variant and the 167.2?
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,183
    MaxPB said:

    Still no major rise in cases despite the Indian variant spreading everywhere. I get a sense that it will turn out to be very similar to the Kent variant in terms of transmission.

    Fingers crossed.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,389
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    And the thunderclaps rumble over London. Again. And the cold steel rain pummels the pavements. Again

    I think the evolution from here is starting to become clear. Several more days of awful showery weather. Then it dries up a tiny bit but gets even colder. By this point we're all close to despair, and the record books are being dusted off. Flowering fails across the already decimated vineyards of France and Germany. Covid infections remain stubbornly high as everyone stays indoors.

    Then it settles down, and slowly warms up. By June we're back into normality, or warmer.

    It's not 100 miles off what we saw from late May to late June 1995. That's the hope.
    This May will surely break records? And after a cold April, as well

    London has just experienced a ferocious hailstorm. One of the most severe I've seen in the UK

    It does feel quite apocalyptic. And the now the sky is as black as Satan's Squid Ink
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,183
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Better than his mother iirc. Diana really was a non-starter academically. But a genius at manipulating people and playing the victim...
  • Options
    Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 178
    edited May 2021

    Leon said:

    gealbhan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Where did he say that lol? What an idiot.
    "Prince Harry faces backlash in the US after calling First Amendment 'bonkers'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/prince-harry-faces-backlash-in-the-us-after-calling-first-amendment-bonkers-12309014
    I suspect that they'll tire of him quick enough.
    Indeed. First rule of being in someone else's country is that you slag off their traditions and institutions at your peril. He is showing the poor judgement of a man who has always had his judgements made for him.
    Silly of him to attack the US press, especially if any of the rumours about what they have in their cuttings library about his wife are true.

    Also stupid given how easy they've been going on the both of them. Why antagonise them? They've literally been signal boosting all of their crap for months.
    You guys actually defending something as insane as what the First Amendment has become? That would be pretty clueless about America, because what held it together for so long is putting America at the top of the list above all,else, now the throughly dangerous First Amendment is burning through that putting America first like smouldering brimstone.

    the First Amendment has mutated into free speech idolatry. Free speech has been placed on so high a pedestal that it is almost automatically privileged over privacy, fair trials, equality and public health, even protecting depictions of animal cruelty and violent video games sold to children. At the same time, dissent is unduly stifled and religious minorities are burdened. The First Amendment benefits the powerful at the expense of the vulnerable. By contrast, other Western democracies provide more reasonable accommodations between free speech and other values though their protections of dissent, and religious minorities are also inadequate.

    Harry’s absolutely spot on. I feel embarrassed for the lot of you.
    Thank you for explaining in one paragraph why the First Amendment is a good idea.
    Free Speech as described in the First Amendment is a great idea. If only America pursued it. Given that you get fired and cancelled in America for stating mere scientific truths, let alone opinions, it is sadly not the case that they protect free speech. Not any more
    The First Amendment protects free speech in law, not the societal consequences of free speech, no?
    I belive it only protects you against the government. Private businesses can do whatever they like.

    (Apart from yelling fire in a crowded theatre, apperently)
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Hospital admissions down to 59 (1 more than on 1st September last year) and beds occupied down at 749, so approximately zero sign of any surge.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235
    The MSOA cases data is amazing. Wide stretches of the country with fewer than 3 cases in the last week (so showing white on the map). Includes the whole of Cornwall. I understand caution, and its only 4 weeks and 6 days, but what are the risks in Cornwall right now?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,622
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    You have to pass an entrance exam to get into Harrow too, Harrow may not be as academic as Eton or Winchester or Westminster but it is not Stowe either (and even Stowe requires 55% average at Common Entrance)
    Did not David Cameron once muse that Eton was becoming too academically intensive and it was the thick sons of gentleman farmers and the aristocracy who made the place?
    Eton is catching up with Winchester and Westminster, which have always traditionally been the most academically intense of the top rank public schools if slightly less socially exclusive than Eton, with scholarships and highly competitive entrance.

    Before Cameron of course went to Eton as befits his class, along with Boris, even if their brains did not perhaps match those of Winchester educated Sunak
    The last debating competition my son was in at Durham had 8 teams from Eton, one of which ultimately won. They haven’t given up on teaching future cabinet ministers just yet.
    Oxbridge has become very wary of taking Etonians (one per college per year) so for those who miss out Durham, Exeter or St. Andrews remain popular choices. My nephew ended up at Durham.
    Plenty of Etonians at Bristol too
    Yep and Universities that they might have thought twice about previously such as Newcastle and Leeds. Very rah those now.
    Newcastle has always been popular with them: party city!
    Newcastle, more specifically Castle Leazes, was full of rahs, including one Princess Eugenie who was a student there at the same time as me, the first time round.

    I could have bumped into her in the Sinners trebles bar and never known it.
    When he was a student at Exeter, Peter Philips - Princess Anne’s son - tried to seduce my then girlfriend (also a student). He failed. Or so she told me

    Ironically, when I look back at old photos I realise that she was a dead ringer for Meghan Markle, except paler and more wistful. An absolute stunner

    Sigh
    Getting a bit of a 'did a search for her on FB' vibe tbh
    She was also the first girl to send me a nude selfie. So it must have happened around the advent of mobile phone cameras, in the early Noughties

    I was sitting in a soho club when it pinged, unheralded, onto my phone. It was a huge, sudden jolt of eroticism. Like a minor heart attack

    I’ve still got this primordial image stored on my latest phone. Very poor resolution ofc
    Do not wish to spoil the vibe but - is a minor heart attack erotic then?
    "Motivated by the desire for revenge, your Worship? Heaven forbid - MY motive was money, honey!"
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    And the thunderclaps rumble over London. Again. And the cold steel rain pummels the pavements. Again

    I think the evolution from here is starting to become clear. Several more days of awful showery weather. Then it dries up a tiny bit but gets even colder. By this point we're all close to despair, and the record books are being dusted off. Flowering fails across the already decimated vineyards of France and Germany. Covid infections remain stubbornly high as everyone stays indoors.

    Then it settles down, and slowly warms up. By June we're back into normality, or warmer.

    It's not 100 miles off what we saw from late May to late June 1995. That's the hope.
    This May will surely break records? And after a cold April, as well

    London has just experienced a ferocious hailstorm. One of the most severe I've seen in the UK

    It does feel quite apocalyptic. And the now the sky is as black as Satan's Squid Ink
    Glorious sunshine here. Only 13C but after the last month it feels like 20C.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    DougSeal said:
    I think a few more days of this will be very helpful to change the current narrative. The current zero COVID chumps won't be able to keep banging on about their policies if cases keep falling over the next week despite the variant.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    Ludgrove and Eton both recommended he went to a different school. His grandmother (who appoints the Provost of Eton as her personal representative on the board and therefore has some sway) insisted. She wanted him close - this was shortly after Diana’s death - and she had him round to stay at her pad nearby most weekends
    Connections eh.

    How do we remove this unelected ruler?

    It is an insult to millions of working class kids in the country who do not have these connections and cannot improve their lot in life.
    Whether Harry went to Eton or Stowe would not have made the slightest difference to their life chances (or indeed his as he would be a multimillionaire through inheritance anyway), it was closing most of the grammar schools that reduced working class kids chances of getting into top universities and the top professions.
    You have just reminded me why I am not a Conservative.

    Selection at aged 11 is immoral. Wealthy parents paying for 11 plus tuition to pass the exam at the expense of smarter kids who can't afford that luxury.

    I went to a great, properly funded comprehensive in the mid seventies. Students in my year were high achievers in later life. This was followed by a grammar school where the second (bottom) set students were referred to as "less able". These "less able" students were the council house kids who didn't make 5 gces. In my book if 30 children passed the 11 plus and yet failed to achieve a mere 5 O levels that proves the system failed.
    Who was in charge in the mid-70s?
    You took my legs from under me with a scything studs-up Norman Hunter tackle, and by the number of likes the crowd loved it.

    Your basic premise is wrong. SDP Shirley, for it were she, ploughed on with comprehensive conversions throughout the mid eighties.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,622
    Nunu3 said:

    Leon said:

    gealbhan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Where did he say that lol? What an idiot.
    "Prince Harry faces backlash in the US after calling First Amendment 'bonkers'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/prince-harry-faces-backlash-in-the-us-after-calling-first-amendment-bonkers-12309014
    I suspect that they'll tire of him quick enough.
    Indeed. First rule of being in someone else's country is that you slag off their traditions and institutions at your peril. He is showing the poor judgement of a man who has always had his judgements made for him.
    Silly of him to attack the US press, especially if any of the rumours about what they have in their cuttings library about his wife are true.

    Also stupid given how easy they've been going on the both of them. Why antagonise them? They've literally been signal boosting all of their crap for months.
    You guys actually defending something as insane as what the First Amendment has become? That would be pretty clueless about America, because what held it together for so long is putting America at the top of the list above all,else, now the throughly dangerous First Amendment is burning through that putting America first like smouldering brimstone.

    the First Amendment has mutated into free speech idolatry. Free speech has been placed on so high a pedestal that it is almost automatically privileged over privacy, fair trials, equality and public health, even protecting depictions of animal cruelty and violent video games sold to children. At the same time, dissent is unduly stifled and religious minorities are burdened. The First Amendment benefits the powerful at the expense of the vulnerable. By contrast, other Western democracies provide more reasonable accommodations between free speech and other values though their protections of dissent, and religious minorities are also inadequate.

    Harry’s absolutely spot on. I feel embarrassed for the lot of you.
    Thank you for explaining in one paragraph why the First Amendment is a good idea.
    Free Speech as described in the First Amendment is a great idea. If only America pursued it. Given that you get fired and cancelled in America for stating mere scientific truths, let alone opinions, it is sadly not the case that they protect free speech. Not any more
    The First Amendment protects free speech in law, not the societal consequences of free speech, no?
    I belive it only protects you against the government. Private businesses can do whatever they like.

    (Apart from yelling fire in a crowded theatre, apperently)
    Re: "yelling fire in a crowded theatre" Donald Trumpsky says your full of it! As THAT is his his inalienable right as MAGA-maniac.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,389
    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Isaac Newton
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    DougSeal said:
    Pedant mode, but that's not positivity.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:
    Pedant mode, but that's not positivity.
    Actually its hard to say what it is - there are two different y-axis scales
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383
    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Did you used to play at the pond at that pub you go to?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,475

    The MSOA cases data is amazing. Wide stretches of the country with fewer than 3 cases in the last week (so showing white on the map). Includes the whole of Cornwall. I understand caution, and its only 4 weeks and 6 days, but what are the risks in Cornwall right now?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

    Sunburn, boredom, second-homers and Martin Clunes - same as any other year, I expect? :wink:
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,389
    Selebian said:

    The MSOA cases data is amazing. Wide stretches of the country with fewer than 3 cases in the last week (so showing white on the map). Includes the whole of Cornwall. I understand caution, and its only 4 weeks and 6 days, but what are the risks in Cornwall right now?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

    Sunburn, boredom, second-homers and Martin Clunes - same as any other year, I expect? :wink:
    According to my family, the main risk for holidaymakers in Cornwall, at the moment, is frostbite. It's no better down there than it is in the capital
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297
    algarkirk said:

    nico679 said:

    So the government is considering using force majeure as a means to not implement the NI protocol . So basically an act of God ! More disgraceful behaviour from this cesspit administration. And in other news the U.K. can’t align its food standards to help solve many border issues because it wants to lower them when it decides to throw farmers under a bus when it makes a trade deal with Australia.

    Brexit could not happen, given the various red lines, without either: Leaving with no deal, or leaving with a deal which contained delusion and contradiction over NI. No other choices were available (counter suggestions welcome).

    Leaving with no deal would have left the contradiction firmly in the hands of the EU/RoI because it was their rules which required a regulated border and they would have had to put up barriers at the border.

    Boris left it as mostly his problem, though not entirely. Because we have left, someone's red lines are going to shift. But the political achievement is that we have left, and fulfilled the mandate without the chaos of No Deal.

    Politics is what it is - a dark grey art. Boris has been as honourable over this as is feasible.
    A good take but a very generous one. A Brexit other than Brino wasn't possible without messing up Ireland. But does this mean we applaud Johnson lying to all and sundry to finesse the issue? I think we should leave that to his bois.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,183
    Sefton, an Indian variant hotspot, doing okay


  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235
    DougSeal said:

    Sefton, an Indian variant hotspot, doing okay


    Care needed at the local and regional level - the LF and PCR test shenanigans. See the .gov website for info.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,469
    edited May 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    Ludgrove and Eton both recommended he went to a different school. His grandmother (who appoints the Provost of Eton as her personal representative on the board and therefore has some sway) insisted. She wanted him close - this was shortly after Diana’s death - and she had him round to stay at her pad nearby most weekends
    Connections eh.

    How do we remove this unelected ruler?

    It is an insult to millions of working class kids in the country who do not have these connections and cannot improve their lot in life.
    Whether Harry went to Eton or Stowe would not have made the slightest difference to their life chances (or indeed his as he would be a multimillionaire through inheritance anyway), it was closing most of the grammar schools that reduced working class kids chances of getting into top universities and the top professions.
    Tell that to Ben Houchen.

    He's a Northumbria University Law School graduate.
    His school was a former grammar school
    Aye, that former grammar school got him into that prestigious university and it's done him no harm at all.

    Also his school changed from a grammar school into a comprehensive 9 years before he was even born.
    Most of the best comprehensives used to be the grammar schools in their area still
    Right, but what's your point?

    Are you saying that good schools are good schools, regardless of whether they are grammar schools or not? Because it seems like that's what you're saying.
    I am saying the best state schools in non selective areas still tend to carry something of the grammar school ethos and reputation they had before eg the best state school in Epping Forest, the Davenant, is a Church of England academy but was a grammar school until 1980
    Great — so we agree grammar school status is not required to be a good school. Cool.
    No, the best state schools overall with the best exam results are still grammar schools and the best state schools with the best exam results in non selective areas still tend to be ex grammar schools.

    Even if you do not have a wholesale return to selection, the uniforms, discipline, house systems, emphasis on excellence of grammars still produces results
    Exactly — ex grammar schools. I.e. haven't been grammar schools for over 40 years.

    Also "houses" are not unique to grammar schools. All my comprehensive schools had houses. And uniforms. And discipline.
    Which is closer to the grammar school model than the model preferred by the left
    You don't have a coherent point here.

    Surely the "grammar school model" is just selection. Otherwise there's no difference from the comprehensive model.
    No, the left oppose uniforms, oppose setting and oppose house systems and are less keen on strict discipline too
    All the 5th form smokers queuing up in their full uniform waiting to be caned in my comp circa 1975/6 would doubtless disagree. I was in Langdale house by the way. Two of the others were Snowdon and Lomond, I can't remember the fourth, only it was yellow.
    1980s schools -- end of corporal punishment; end of O-levels; lots of reorganisation (closures and mergers) from what I vaguely recall.

    ETA and high unemployment leading to the breakdown of the educational contract for many working class children -- do well at school, get an apprenticeship; do badly, production line. Instead for many, it became pointless.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Did you used to play at the pond at that pub you go to?
    Oh dear. There's a fly in the room. Where's my spray?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,702
    So the more I read threads like this, the more Labour do seem snookered. No way back through the red wall - I think that's gone. Not enough seats in the big cities to win via the core vote. No route to victory through the Southern shires. No route to victory through Scotland.

    This is much worse for them than the 80s, or even that for the Tories in the early 200os where there was still always the Eurosceptic / anti-woke / common sense revolution kind of populism to turn to if needed.

    The only way - really the only way - is full on realignment which means electoral reform and PR, which the conservatives will resist at all costs and which not even labour realise they need yet. So the centre-left is out of power for a generation.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235

    DougSeal said:

    Sefton, an Indian variant hotspot, doing okay


    Care needed at the local and regional level - the LF and PCR test shenanigans. See the .gov website for info.
    Further on this:
    "The introduction of a new system disrupted the removal of cases where a positive rapid lateral flow test was followed by all negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken within 3 days. These 4,776 cases have now been removed. Newly-reported cases for the UK and England were unaffected. Historical published date totals have not been changed.

    Newly-reported cases at regional and local authority level within England are calculated as the daily change in the total number of cases. This means that for 18 May 2021, these show significantly lower numbers or zero, and do not reflect the actual number of new cases reported on that date. Details of the changes and numbers of newly reported cases for 18 May 2021 are available in csv (wide format) and csv (long format)
    ."
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    DougSeal said:

    Sefton, an Indian variant hotspot, doing okay


    I'm still hopeful that it will be a rapid burnout type variant. I seem to remember reading that the infectious period with it is possibly lower.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,525
    Ireland is currently having huge IT problems;
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57111615

    I think vaccinations are still happening and being logged locally, but not uploaded onto the totaliser.

    (Here we go: they are booking older fortysomethings starting this week:
    https://extra.ie/2021/05/18/news/irish-news/hse-covid-19-vaccine-portal-45-49)
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    DougSeal said:
    Sorry if I have missed the subtilty of the term 'Positivity' but does that mean the % of tests that are positive? and if so do we know how many tests? if so has the number of test changed? if the number of tests has gone up a lot but the % positive has only fallen a small about, then it could be still growing?

    Incidentally with Boulton, are they vaccinating everybody that wishes to be? and if so do we know when that will be complete? seeing where we are a week after that will be very interesting.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Isaac Newton
    Ah, the Newt. What a giant. For every action ... but is there?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383
    edited May 2021
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Did you used to play at the pond at that pub you go to?
    Oh dear. There's a fly in the room. Where's my spray?
    NO! Don't give in! Keep at it.

    Your cracking post today about Boris and the positive response to it should help the whole self-esteem thing.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235
    BigRich said:

    DougSeal said:
    Sorry if I have missed the subtilty of the term 'Positivity' but does that mean the % of tests that are positive? and if so do we know how many tests? if so has the number of test changed? if the number of tests has gone up a lot but the % positive has only fallen a small about, then it could be still growing?

    Incidentally with Boulton, are they vaccinating everybody that wishes to be? and if so do we know when that will be complete? seeing where we are a week after that will be very interesting.
    I'd argue on the data presented in that tweet, we don't know what is falling, other than something...
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The MSOA cases data is amazing. Wide stretches of the country with fewer than 3 cases in the last week (so showing white on the map). Includes the whole of Cornwall. I understand caution, and its only 4 weeks and 6 days, but what are the risks in Cornwall right now?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

    What's really remarkable is zooming in on the Northwest.

    Bolton, Blackburn and inner Blackpool are dark blue and purple, but much of the NW around it including almost all of Liverpool, Warrington, South Ribble, Skelmersdale and Southport are white.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    And the thunderclaps rumble over London. Again. And the cold steel rain pummels the pavements. Again

    I think the evolution from here is starting to become clear. Several more days of awful showery weather. Then it dries up a tiny bit but gets even colder. By this point we're all close to despair, and the record books are being dusted off. Flowering fails across the already decimated vineyards of France and Germany. Covid infections remain stubbornly high as everyone stays indoors.

    Then it settles down, and slowly warms up. By June we're back into normality, or warmer.

    It's not 100 miles off what we saw from late May to late June 1995. That's the hope.
    This May will surely break records? And after a cold April, as well

    London has just experienced a ferocious hailstorm. One of the most severe I've seen in the UK

    It does feel quite apocalyptic. And the now the sky is as black as Satan's Squid Ink
    Have you checked out June though? Seriously seriously HOT from what I'm hearing.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:
    Pedant mode, but that's not positivity.
    Actually its hard to say what it is - there are two different y-axis scales
    Isn't the right one just per capita? No way you could plot number of positive cases and positivity on the same scale.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Did you used to play at the pond at that pub you go to?
    Oh dear. There's a fly in the room. Where's my spray?
    NO! Don't give in! Keep at it.

    Your cracking post today about Boris and the positive response to it should help the whole self-esteem thing.
    Bzzzzz ...
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:
    Pedant mode, but that's not positivity.
    Actually its hard to say what it is - there are two different y-axis scales
    Isn't the right one just per capita? No way you could plot number of positive cases and positivity on the same scale.
    I don't know - but any decent graph should be properly labelled!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383
    edited May 2021
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Did you used to play at the pond at that pub you go to?
    Oh dear. There's a fly in the room. Where's my spray?
    NO! Don't give in! Keep at it.

    Your cracking post today about Boris and the positive response to it should help the whole self-esteem thing.
    Bzzzzz ...
    What a shame. Look, I don't mind that it took you all night to work that one out but it puts you back in the everyone thinks I'm an idiot box.

    You are better than that, as I and many others have noted today.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,389
    It came from the lab? Of course it came from the fucking lab

    "Biggest story in the world and they ***at best*** ignored a plausible/likely explanation for a year, while often helping label anyone who wanted the lab leak possibility investigated as a conspiracy theorist. It’s a big L and they need to just take it and do better in the future."

    https://twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1394652935666159618?s=20


    "I’m largely glad that the conventional wisdom about the lab leak theory is shifting before our eyes. But the set of evidence now isn’t worlds apart from the set of evidence a year ago."

    https://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/1394664031378608128?s=20
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:
    Pedant mode, but that's not positivity.
    Actually its hard to say what it is - there are two different y-axis scales
    Isn't the right one just per capita? No way you could plot number of positive cases and positivity on the same scale.
    I don't know - but any decent graph should be properly labelled!
    Agreed entirely. You can't put positivity and positive cases on the same plot with one line because the former depends on the total number of tests, while the latter does not. It would only work if the total number of test was constant throughout the whole period.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    It's gone a bit unnoticed, but there is a curious difference between most EU countries and the UK going on right now.

    Simply: despite being two to three months behind the UK, as far as vaccinations go, most EU countries are removing restrictions. Denmark, for example, will is going to remove almost all Covid restrictions from Friday. Only nightclubs will remain closed.

    My gut is that the UK has been far too cautious in reopening, and has therefore thrown away a good part of the benefits from its successful vaccination programme.

    However... given that most of the EU still has relatively high levels of Covid (typically 2-5x the UK on a per person basis), this is a gutsy call.

    However (part two), this doesn't tell the whole story. Denmark tests more than 10% of its population each day, and has managed to be pretty successful at shielding the more vulnerable. This means there are remarkably few people in hospital with Covid in the whole country (just 166, of which only 31 are in intensive care).

    Anyway: it's a good reason to be cautious about reopening the borders with the EU. But it's also going to be a great counterfactual: could we have reopened the economy earlier without seeing a spike in hospitalizations.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    https://order-order.com/2021/05/18/watch-rayners-mauling-by-mordaunt/

    Kaboom!

    Why is Penny M out at 40/1 for next leader?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,389
    WHY were so many apparently intelligent people - on here as well as in the media - so keen to believe the wet market story, and so eager to dismiss the lab leak hypothesis, despite the huge coincidence of THAT globally unique lab researching bat coronaviruses being "just down the road" from the putative birthplace of a novel bat coronavirus?

    Is it just because Trump punted this theory, so it was tainted? Was it normalcy bias, again?

    "bill ray
    @12billpen


    Former NY Times science reporter: The lab leak theory is a lot more credible than I once believed"

    https://twitter.com/12billpen/status/1394677510810517508?s=20
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    The MSOA cases data is amazing. Wide stretches of the country with fewer than 3 cases in the last week (so showing white on the map). Includes the whole of Cornwall. I understand caution, and its only 4 weeks and 6 days, but what are the risks in Cornwall right now?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

    Sunburn, boredom, second-homers and Martin Clunes - same as any other year, I expect? :wink:
    According to my family, the main risk for holidaymakers in Cornwall, at the moment, is frostbite. It's no better down there than it is in the capital
    Indeed it has been chilly. Some sunshine this morning but rain this afternoon. My plan for a walk to a local pub for supper are under threat (although I have a workaround, which is to drive to said pub and then get a bus to another pub when I get back). It was nice being in the pub yesterday though.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:
    Pedant mode, but that's not positivity.
    Actually its hard to say what it is - there are two different y-axis scales
    Isn't the right one just per capita? No way you could plot number of positive cases and positivity on the same scale.
    I don't know - but any decent graph should be properly labelled!
    Agreed entirely. You can't put positivity and positive cases on the same plot with one line because the former depends on the total number of tests, while the latter does not. It would only work if the total number of test was constant throughout the whole period.
    For some reason he's weirdly snipped the image. The full version makes much more sense.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn with Darwen
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    You have to pass an entrance exam to get into Harrow too, Harrow may not be as academic as Eton or Winchester or Westminster but it is not Stowe either (and even Stowe requires 55% average at Common Entrance)
    Did not David Cameron once muse that Eton was becoming too academically intensive and it was the thick sons of gentleman farmers and the aristocracy who made the place?
    Eton is catching up with Winchester and Westminster, which have always traditionally been the most academically intense of the top rank public schools if slightly less socially exclusive than Eton, with scholarships and highly competitive entrance.

    Before Cameron of course went to Eton as befits his class, along with Boris, even if their brains did not perhaps match those of Winchester educated Sunak
    The last debating competition my son was in at Durham had 8 teams from Eton, one of which ultimately won. They haven’t given up on teaching future cabinet ministers just yet.
    Oxbridge has become very wary of taking Etonians (one per college per year) so for those who miss out Durham, Exeter or St. Andrews remain popular choices. My nephew ended up at Durham.
    Plenty of Etonians at Bristol too
    Yep and Universities that they might have thought twice about previously such as Newcastle and Leeds. Very rah those now.
    Newcastle has always been popular with them: party city!
    Newcastle, more specifically Castle Leazes, was full of rahs, including one Princess Eugenie who was a student there at the same time as me, the first time round.

    I could have bumped into her in the Sinners trebles bar and never known it.
    When he was a student at Exeter, Peter Philips - Princess Anne’s son - tried to seduce my then girlfriend (also a student). He failed. Or so she told me

    Ironically, when I look back at old photos I realise that she was a dead ringer for Meghan Markle, except paler and more wistful. An absolute stunner

    Sigh
    Getting a bit of a 'did a search for her on FB' vibe tbh
    She was also the first girl to send me a nude selfie. So it must have happened around the advent of mobile phone cameras, in the early Noughties

    I was sitting in a soho club when it pinged, unheralded, onto my phone. It was a huge, sudden jolt of eroticism. Like a minor heart attack

    I’ve still got this primordial image stored on my latest phone. Very poor resolution ofc
    I still have some life drawings of my first serious girlfriend.
    Unfortunately melancholy tends to overwhelm the erotic charge.
    Picturing DiCaprio and Winslet here, TUD, needless to say.
    Ah were a lad from the mean streets of Aberdeen, handy wi' a stick o' charcoal, she were from the posh side o' Dundee. It were doomed to fail, but for a couple o' delirious years..

    On an associated topic, I've been watching Mare of Easttown. I'd always thought Winslet a so so actress and quite dim on the sole basis of seeing her on Who do you Think you Are. Good tv and her performance is outstanding, US friends tell me her Pennsylvania accent is on the button. Quite revised my opinion of her.

    Edit: she was also good in The Reader which I'd forgotten about
    I've hardly seen her in anything so I always think Titanic. Which I liked. You can't really make a bad film from that story. Not as moving as A Night To Remember but a visual treat. Plus the song really worked for me. I cry easily and that had no trouble at all.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383
    rcs1000 said:

    It's gone a bit unnoticed, but there is a curious difference between most EU countries and the UK going on right now.

    Simply: despite being two to three months behind the UK, as far as vaccinations go, most EU countries are removing restrictions. Denmark, for example, will is going to remove almost all Covid restrictions from Friday. Only nightclubs will remain closed.

    My gut is that the UK has been far too cautious in reopening, and has therefore thrown away a good part of the benefits from its successful vaccination programme.

    However... given that most of the EU still has relatively high levels of Covid (typically 2-5x the UK on a per person basis), this is a gutsy call.

    However (part two), this doesn't tell the whole story. Denmark tests more than 10% of its population each day, and has managed to be pretty successful at shielding the more vulnerable. This means there are remarkably few people in hospital with Covid in the whole country (just 166, of which only 31 are in intensive care).

    Anyway: it's a good reason to be cautious about reopening the borders with the EU. But it's also going to be a great counterfactual: could we have reopened the economy earlier without seeing a spike in hospitalizations.

    I think it's gone very noticed. By me at least. I have consistently posted about how our lockdown has been longer and more restrictive than many countries around us, noting how, when I have been speaking to people in Paris, etc, how they have had to endure "curfews" and that we would kill for curfews rather than everything closed. Add that to the pictures from friends (as I'm sure you are experiencing also) of big parties of people in the US with no masks.

    Now, at some point perhaps this will be translated into XX deaths saved but that only looks at the "raw" deaths which, although awful for those families, doesn't tell the overall picture of the economy nor society.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235
    rcs1000 said:

    It's gone a bit unnoticed, but there is a curious difference between most EU countries and the UK going on right now.

    Simply: despite being two to three months behind the UK, as far as vaccinations go, most EU countries are removing restrictions. Denmark, for example, will is going to remove almost all Covid restrictions from Friday. Only nightclubs will remain closed.

    My gut is that the UK has been far too cautious in reopening, and has therefore thrown away a good part of the benefits from its successful vaccination programme.

    However... given that most of the EU still has relatively high levels of Covid (typically 2-5x the UK on a per person basis), this is a gutsy call.

    However (part two), this doesn't tell the whole story. Denmark tests more than 10% of its population each day, and has managed to be pretty successful at shielding the more vulnerable. This means there are remarkably few people in hospital with Covid in the whole country (just 166, of which only 31 are in intensive care).

    Anyway: it's a good reason to be cautious about reopening the borders with the EU. But it's also going to be a great counterfactual: could we have reopened the economy earlier without seeing a spike in hospitalizations.

    I've been pretty clear that I think our reopening has been and is too slow. I think we could go to the last stage today. Plenty of advice and guidance, but no more mandated masks and distancing. I also understand why we are going so slowly - the government has be burned before - Autumn, Christmas and so on. We also no have the debt paradox. When you have no debt, going into the overdraft can be hard. When you are 20,000 into debt, the next bit of debt is easy (hence people in debt can often go out of control). Thats where we are - we've borrowed and spent like there's no tomorrow (and maybe that'll be fine) but the restraint on keeping doing it just isn't there - why not keep furlough a bit longer?
    I really do think we are on the way now - and if we have to wait until June 21st so be it.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:
    Pedant mode, but that's not positivity.
    Actually its hard to say what it is - there are two different y-axis scales
    Isn't the right one just per capita? No way you could plot number of positive cases and positivity on the same scale.
    I don't know - but any decent graph should be properly labelled!
    Agreed entirely. You can't put positivity and positive cases on the same plot with one line because the former depends on the total number of tests, while the latter does not. It would only work if the total number of test was constant throughout the whole period.
    For some reason he's weirdly snipped the image. The full version makes much more sense.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn with Darwen
    Thats better! Makes sense now.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    Ludgrove and Eton both recommended he went to a different school. His grandmother (who appoints the Provost of Eton as her personal representative on the board and therefore has some sway) insisted. She wanted him close - this was shortly after Diana’s death - and she had him round to stay at her pad nearby most weekends
    Connections eh.

    How do we remove this unelected ruler?

    It is an insult to millions of working class kids in the country who do not have these connections and cannot improve their lot in life.
    Whether Harry went to Eton or Stowe would not have made the slightest difference to their life chances (or indeed his as he would be a multimillionaire through inheritance anyway), it was closing most of the grammar schools that reduced working class kids chances of getting into top universities and the top professions.
    Tell that to Ben Houchen.

    He's a Northumbria University Law School graduate.
    His school was a former grammar school
    Aye, that former grammar school got him into that prestigious university and it's done him no harm at all.

    Also his school changed from a grammar school into a comprehensive 9 years before he was even born.
    Most of the best comprehensives used to be the grammar schools in their area still
    Right, but what's your point?

    Are you saying that good schools are good schools, regardless of whether they are grammar schools or not? Because it seems like that's what you're saying.
    I am saying the best state schools in non selective areas still tend to carry something of the grammar school ethos and reputation they had before eg the best state school in Epping Forest, the Davenant, is a Church of England academy but was a grammar school until 1980
    Great — so we agree grammar school status is not required to be a good school. Cool.
    No, the best state schools overall with the best exam results are still grammar schools and the best state schools with the best exam results in non selective areas still tend to be ex grammar schools.

    Even if you do not have a wholesale return to selection, the uniforms, discipline, house systems, emphasis on excellence of grammars still produces results
    Exactly — ex grammar schools. I.e. haven't been grammar schools for over 40 years.

    Also "houses" are not unique to grammar schools. All my comprehensive schools had houses. And uniforms. And discipline.
    Which is closer to the grammar school model than the model preferred by the left
    You don't have a coherent point here.

    Surely the "grammar school model" is just selection. Otherwise there's no difference from the comprehensive model.
    No, the left oppose uniforms, oppose setting and oppose house systems and are less keen on strict discipline too
    Interestingly, school uniforms are extremely unusual in the US, even though it is a significantly more right wing country than the UK.
    They are normal at some of the prestigious private schools on the East coast still and of course the setting and discipline argument is also still an issue in the US too.

    In any case it is strict disciplinarian Singapore which tops the PISA rankings, not the USA
    That wasn't my point.

    My point was simply that this isn't a left/right issue in the US.

    So, it's not the case that right wing states (like Texas) have them, and left wing ones (like California) do not.

    In fact, the only government schools in the US that have uniforms that I am aware of are a couple in New York City.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,297
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Did you used to play at the pond at that pub you go to?
    Oh dear. There's a fly in the room. Where's my spray?
    NO! Don't give in! Keep at it.

    Your cracking post today about Boris and the positive response to it should help the whole self-esteem thing.
    Bzzzzz ...
    What a shame. Look, I don't mind that it took you all night to work that one out but it puts you back in the everyone thinks I'm an idiot box.

    You are better than that, as I and many others have noted today.
    As of course are you. How about some more on electric toothbrushes?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,053
    rcs1000 said:

    It's gone a bit unnoticed, but there is a curious difference between most EU countries and the UK going on right now.

    Simply: despite being two to three months behind the UK, as far as vaccinations go, most EU countries are removing restrictions. Denmark, for example, will is going to remove almost all Covid restrictions from Friday. Only nightclubs will remain closed.

    My gut is that the UK has been far too cautious in reopening, and has therefore thrown away a good part of the benefits from its successful vaccination programme.

    However... given that most of the EU still has relatively high levels of Covid (typically 2-5x the UK on a per person basis), this is a gutsy call.

    However (part two), this doesn't tell the whole story. Denmark tests more than 10% of its population each day, and has managed to be pretty successful at shielding the more vulnerable. This means there are remarkably few people in hospital with Covid in the whole country (just 166, of which only 31 are in intensive care).

    Anyway: it's a good reason to be cautious about reopening the borders with the EU. But it's also going to be a great counterfactual: could we have reopened the economy earlier without seeing a spike in hospitalizations.

    The Danish experience also seems to imply that some form of risk segmentation can work after all? The received wisdom on here was that it was unworkable?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    Scott_xP said:

    nico679 said:

    So the government is considering using force majeure as a means to not implement the NI protocol . So basically an act of God ! More disgraceful behaviour from this cesspit administration. And in other news the U.K. can’t align its food standards to help solve many border issues because it wants to lower them when it decides to throw farmers under a bus when it makes a trade deal with Australia.

    It is remarkable, though not surprising, that in this era of "food miles" and in a country that can't currently feed itself without imports, the Insane Clown posse are prepared to destroy local sheep farming in favour of importing them from the farthest point on the planet.
    Food miles are, if you'll excuse my language, utter bullshit. The amount of oil needed to shift a giant refrigerated ship from NZ to the UK is shockingly little. You'll almost certainly use more (or a leg of lamb basis) bringing it from the store to your home.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    Ludgrove and Eton both recommended he went to a different school. His grandmother (who appoints the Provost of Eton as her personal representative on the board and therefore has some sway) insisted. She wanted him close - this was shortly after Diana’s death - and she had him round to stay at her pad nearby most weekends
    Connections eh.

    How do we remove this unelected ruler?

    It is an insult to millions of working class kids in the country who do not have these connections and cannot improve their lot in life.
    Whether Harry went to Eton or Stowe would not have made the slightest difference to their life chances (or indeed his as he would be a multimillionaire through inheritance anyway), it was closing most of the grammar schools that reduced working class kids chances of getting into top universities and the top professions.
    Tell that to Ben Houchen.

    He's a Northumbria University Law School graduate.
    His school was a former grammar school
    Aye, that former grammar school got him into that prestigious university and it's done him no harm at all.

    Also his school changed from a grammar school into a comprehensive 9 years before he was even born.
    Most of the best comprehensives used to be the grammar schools in their area still
    Right, but what's your point?

    Are you saying that good schools are good schools, regardless of whether they are grammar schools or not? Because it seems like that's what you're saying.
    I am saying the best state schools in non selective areas still tend to carry something of the grammar school ethos and reputation they had before eg the best state school in Epping Forest, the Davenant, is a Church of England academy but was a grammar school until 1980
    Great — so we agree grammar school status is not required to be a good school. Cool.
    No, the best state schools overall with the best exam results are still grammar schools and the best state schools with the best exam results in non selective areas still tend to be ex grammar schools.

    Even if you do not have a wholesale return to selection, the uniforms, discipline, house systems, emphasis on excellence of grammars still produces results
    Exactly — ex grammar schools. I.e. haven't been grammar schools for over 40 years.

    Also "houses" are not unique to grammar schools. All my comprehensive schools had houses. And uniforms. And discipline.
    Which is closer to the grammar school model than the model preferred by the left
    You don't have a coherent point here.

    Surely the "grammar school model" is just selection. Otherwise there's no difference from the comprehensive model.
    No, the left oppose uniforms, oppose setting and oppose house systems and are less keen on strict discipline too
    Interestingly, school uniforms are extremely unusual in the US, even though it is a significantly more right wing country than the UK.
    They are normal at some of the prestigious private schools on the East coast still and of course the setting and discipline argument is also still an issue in the US too.

    In any case it is strict disciplinarian Singapore which tops the PISA rankings, not the USA
    That wasn't my point.

    My point was simply that this isn't a left/right issue in the US.

    So, it's not the case that right wing states (like Texas) have them, and left wing ones (like California) do not.

    In fact, the only government schools in the US that have uniforms that I am aware of are a couple in New York City.
    And how good are government schools in the US?
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,183
    At just 59, today's figure for reported admissions in England is the lowest since 1st September, (a day sometimes regarded as the start of the second wave).

    Between those dates though there have been over 285,000 admissions, averaging over 1,100 per day.


    https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1394679624999780354
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Did you used to play at the pond at that pub you go to?
    Oh dear. There's a fly in the room. Where's my spray?
    NO! Don't give in! Keep at it.

    Your cracking post today about Boris and the positive response to it should help the whole self-esteem thing.
    Bzzzzz ...
    What a shame. Look, I don't mind that it took you all night to work that one out but it puts you back in the everyone thinks I'm an idiot box.

    You are better than that, as I and many others have noted today.
    As of course are you. How about some more on electric toothbrushes?
    That's better. Getting back on track; we can move on I hope. No more nonsense today, though, you have a record to protect.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,800
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    nico679 said:

    So the government is considering using force majeure as a means to not implement the NI protocol . So basically an act of God ! More disgraceful behaviour from this cesspit administration. And in other news the U.K. can’t align its food standards to help solve many border issues because it wants to lower them when it decides to throw farmers under a bus when it makes a trade deal with Australia.

    It is remarkable, though not surprising, that in this era of "food miles" and in a country that can't currently feed itself without imports, the Insane Clown posse are prepared to destroy local sheep farming in favour of importing them from the farthest point on the planet.
    Food miles are, if you'll excuse my language, utter bullshit. The amount of oil needed to shift a giant refrigerated ship from NZ to the UK is shockingly little. You'll almost certainly use more (or a leg of lamb basis) bringing it from the store to your home.
    In quaint old England some of us actually walk to the shops and back not using any oil. Imagine that!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:
    Pedant mode, but that's not positivity.
    Actually its hard to say what it is - there are two different y-axis scales
    Isn't the right one just per capita? No way you could plot number of positive cases and positivity on the same scale.
    I don't know - but any decent graph should be properly labelled!
    Agreed entirely. You can't put positivity and positive cases on the same plot with one line because the former depends on the total number of tests, while the latter does not. It would only work if the total number of test was constant throughout the whole period.
    For some reason he's weirdly snipped the image. The full version makes much more sense.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn with Darwen
    Thanks, that makes more sense.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,742

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    You have to pass an entrance exam to get into Harrow too, Harrow may not be as academic as Eton or Winchester or Westminster but it is not Stowe either (and even Stowe requires 55% average at Common Entrance)
    Did not David Cameron once muse that Eton was becoming too academically intensive and it was the thick sons of gentleman farmers and the aristocracy who made the place?
    Eton is catching up with Winchester and Westminster, which have always traditionally been the most academically intense of the top rank public schools if slightly less socially exclusive than Eton, with scholarships and highly competitive entrance.

    Before Cameron of course went to Eton as befits his class, along with Boris, even if their brains did not perhaps match those of Winchester educated Sunak
    The last debating competition my son was in at Durham had 8 teams from Eton, one of which ultimately won. They haven’t given up on teaching future cabinet ministers just yet.
    Oxbridge has become very wary of taking Etonians (one per college per year) so for those who miss out Durham, Exeter or St. Andrews remain popular choices. My nephew ended up at Durham.
    Plenty of Etonians at Bristol too
    Yep and Universities that they might have thought twice about previously such as Newcastle and Leeds. Very rah those now.
    Newcastle has always been popular with them: party city!
    Newcastle, more specifically Castle Leazes, was full of rahs, including one Princess Eugenie who was a student there at the same time as me, the first time round.

    I could have bumped into her in the Sinners trebles bar and never known it.
    When he was a student at Exeter, Peter Philips - Princess Anne’s son - tried to seduce my then girlfriend (also a student). He failed. Or so she told me

    Ironically, when I look back at old photos I realise that she was a dead ringer for Meghan Markle, except paler and more wistful. An absolute stunner

    Sigh
    Getting a bit of a 'did a search for her on FB' vibe tbh
    She was also the first girl to send me a nude selfie. So it must have happened around the advent of mobile phone cameras, in the early Noughties

    I was sitting in a soho club when it pinged, unheralded, onto my phone. It was a huge, sudden jolt of eroticism. Like a minor heart attack

    I’ve still got this primordial image stored on my latest phone. Very poor resolution ofc
    I still have some life drawings of my first serious girlfriend.
    Unfortunately melancholy tends to overwhelm the erotic charge.
    Picturing DiCaprio and Winslet here, TUD, needless to say.
    Ah were a lad from the mean streets of Aberdeen, handy wi' a stick o' charcoal, she were from the posh side o' Dundee. It were doomed to fail, but for a couple o' delirious years..

    On an associated topic, I've been watching Mare of Easttown. I'd always thought Winslet a so so actress and quite dim on the sole basis of seeing her on Who do you Think you Are. Good tv and her performance is outstanding, US friends tell me her Pennsylvania accent is on the button. Quite revised my opinion of her...
    Tough accent to pull off, apparently.
    Winslett said it was as hard as doing a Polish-Armenian-Russian accent, and made her "want to throw things".
    https://www.phillyvoice.com/kate-winslet-philly-accent-mare-of-easttown-trailer-hbo-series-delco/

    What really impressed the rest of the crew, reportedly, was that between takes she reverted to her own accent, while other US cast members had to stay in the role or lose it.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, why does Harry find the first amendment "baffling" ?

    Because he's not very bright?

    Because he has been convinced all his life that the UK press are a pack of uncontrolled snarling monsters out to exploit him and his family and he now finds that they are extremely controlled by our libel and other laws compared with the press in the US? A shattering of illusions.
    If only he had a US wife who could have told him what the US Constitution says ........
    He's an embarrassingly stupid man who has no real understanding of just how stupid he is.
    As my mother said at the weekend; he got a B and a D at A level…and one of those was in art
    Confirms Eton is overcharging parents?

    Also, how easy must the entrance exam be? Or has Eton gone all Harrow and let in any kid of rich feckers?
    Ludgrove and Eton both recommended he went to a different school. His grandmother (who appoints the Provost of Eton as her personal representative on the board and therefore has some sway) insisted. She wanted him close - this was shortly after Diana’s death - and she had him round to stay at her pad nearby most weekends
    Connections eh.

    How do we remove this unelected ruler?

    It is an insult to millions of working class kids in the country who do not have these connections and cannot improve their lot in life.
    Whether Harry went to Eton or Stowe would not have made the slightest difference to their life chances (or indeed his as he would be a multimillionaire through inheritance anyway), it was closing most of the grammar schools that reduced working class kids chances of getting into top universities and the top professions.
    Tell that to Ben Houchen.

    He's a Northumbria University Law School graduate.
    His school was a former grammar school
    Aye, that former grammar school got him into that prestigious university and it's done him no harm at all.

    Also his school changed from a grammar school into a comprehensive 9 years before he was even born.
    Most of the best comprehensives used to be the grammar schools in their area still
    Right, but what's your point?

    Are you saying that good schools are good schools, regardless of whether they are grammar schools or not? Because it seems like that's what you're saying.
    I am saying the best state schools in non selective areas still tend to carry something of the grammar school ethos and reputation they had before eg the best state school in Epping Forest, the Davenant, is a Church of England academy but was a grammar school until 1980
    Great — so we agree grammar school status is not required to be a good school. Cool.
    No, the best state schools overall with the best exam results are still grammar schools and the best state schools with the best exam results in non selective areas still tend to be ex grammar schools.

    Even if you do not have a wholesale return to selection, the uniforms, discipline, house systems, emphasis on excellence of grammars still produces results
    Exactly — ex grammar schools. I.e. haven't been grammar schools for over 40 years.

    Also "houses" are not unique to grammar schools. All my comprehensive schools had houses. And uniforms. And discipline.
    Which is closer to the grammar school model than the model preferred by the left
    You don't have a coherent point here.

    Surely the "grammar school model" is just selection. Otherwise there's no difference from the comprehensive model.
    No, the left oppose uniforms, oppose setting and oppose house systems and are less keen on strict discipline too
    Interestingly, school uniforms are extremely unusual in the US, even though it is a significantly more right wing country than the UK.
    They are normal at some of the prestigious private schools on the East coast still and of course the setting and discipline argument is also still an issue in the US too.

    In any case it is strict disciplinarian Singapore which tops the PISA rankings, not the USA
    That wasn't my point.

    My point was simply that this isn't a left/right issue in the US.

    So, it's not the case that right wing states (like Texas) have them, and left wing ones (like California) do not.

    In fact, the only government schools in the US that have uniforms that I am aware of are a couple in New York City.
    What about the military schools? They seem more prevalent in the US than here (or anywhere outside the PRC?!).

    Does everyone who goes to one end up going into the military?
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,581
    TimS said:

    So the more I read threads like this, the more Labour do seem snookered. No way back through the red wall - I think that's gone. Not enough seats in the big cities to win via the core vote. No route to victory through the Southern shires. No route to victory through Scotland.

    This is much worse for them than the 80s, or even that for the Tories in the early 200os where there was still always the Eurosceptic / anti-woke / common sense revolution kind of populism to turn to if needed.

    The only way - really the only way - is full on realignment which means electoral reform and PR, which the conservatives will resist at all costs and which not even labour realise they need yet. So the centre-left is out of power for a generation.

    The other only ways are (once either a genuine positivity about Brexit or a route back to EU/EFTA has been marked out):

    Centre left alliance/pact - pretty full on.
    Wait for Boris's wheels to fall off, which they will.
    Find a political genius, a mixture of the strategy of Napoleon and the political antennae of Blair, Bill Clinton and Obama will do fine.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,622

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    nico679 said:

    So the government is considering using force majeure as a means to not implement the NI protocol . So basically an act of God ! More disgraceful behaviour from this cesspit administration. And in other news the U.K. can’t align its food standards to help solve many border issues because it wants to lower them when it decides to throw farmers under a bus when it makes a trade deal with Australia.

    It is remarkable, though not surprising, that in this era of "food miles" and in a country that can't currently feed itself without imports, the Insane Clown posse are prepared to destroy local sheep farming in favour of importing them from the farthest point on the planet.
    Food miles are, if you'll excuse my language, utter bullshit. The amount of oil needed to shift a giant refrigerated ship from NZ to the UK is shockingly little. You'll almost certainly use more (or a leg of lamb basis) bringing it from the store to your home.
    In quaint old England some of us actually walk to the shops and back not using any oil. Imagine that!
    As do some of us (myself included) in the US. But most Americans drive to the store, or these days have someone deliver their groceries for them. And in the UK?
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited May 2021
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    One of the delights of PB is that on any given topic there is usually an expert who can shed light on the matter at hand.

    One of the downsides of PB is that there are a number of people who think they are experts on absolutely everything.

    We've had a couple of examples today. An expert on polling and the Tory Party who, sadly, is at a loss when pretending to be an expert on education. And an expert on pretty much everything, apparently, but probably not on the Middle East.

    Are you an amateur expert on experts? Or a professional expert on experts?
    Neither. I know sweet FA actually (though I'm an expert on (false) modesty).
    “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

    Probably a fake quote, but so very true....
    Is that Einstein? If so, he found more pebbles than most. And fortunately for us he pocketed and took them home rather than skimming them on that great ocean of truth.

    My record is a fifteener. A skim so good that the last few blended seamlessly and the stone seemed to be walking on the water.
    Did you used to play at the pond at that pub you go to?
    Oh dear. There's a fly in the room. Where's my spray?
    NO! Don't give in! Keep at it.

    Your cracking post today about Boris and the positive response to it should help the whole self-esteem thing.
    Bzzzzz ...
    What a shame. Look, I don't mind that it took you all night to work that one out but it puts you back in the everyone thinks I'm an idiot box.

    You are better than that, as I and many others have noted today.
    As of course are you. How about some more on electric toothbrushes?
    That's better. Getting back on track; we can move on I hope. No more nonsense today, though, you have a record to protect.
    On experts, my wife is an anaesthesiologist (anesthetist in US, i.e. physician, not nurse). Her group at a regional hospital was debating whether to challenge the hospital administration's announcement that it would stop testing elective patients for COVID. She wrote a letter to be discussed at the meeting. When one of the physicians spoke up and said "Why do we think we can challenge the administration? I am not an expert in anaesthesia!"

    Jaw drops around the room. If you're not an expert, then why TF are we letting you near patients?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,053

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    nico679 said:

    So the government is considering using force majeure as a means to not implement the NI protocol . So basically an act of God ! More disgraceful behaviour from this cesspit administration. And in other news the U.K. can’t align its food standards to help solve many border issues because it wants to lower them when it decides to throw farmers under a bus when it makes a trade deal with Australia.

    It is remarkable, though not surprising, that in this era of "food miles" and in a country that can't currently feed itself without imports, the Insane Clown posse are prepared to destroy local sheep farming in favour of importing them from the farthest point on the planet.
    Food miles are, if you'll excuse my language, utter bullshit. The amount of oil needed to shift a giant refrigerated ship from NZ to the UK is shockingly little. You'll almost certainly use more (or a leg of lamb basis) bringing it from the store to your home.
    In quaint old England some of us actually walk to the shops and back not using any oil. Imagine that!
    A couple of years back I took a business trip to Atlanta. My US clients were shocked that I willingly walked the less-than twenty minutes from my hotel to the conference centre every day. Funny old world.
This discussion has been closed.