politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON take lead with ICM as Ukip drop 7 points

Damian Green - reportedly axed.

Shocking if true.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Damian Green - reportedly axed.

Shocking if true.

What on earth is Cameron up to ?!

Evening Compouter, you wanted Crossover.. now you have it.. with the GOLD STANDARD

SquareRoot said:

Evening Compouter, you wanted Crossover.. now you have it.. with the GOLD STANDARD

It's gotta be a sustained crossover to count, apparently

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Why has David Jones got the sack, he seemed an excellent performer when I saw him on Question Time. Not in the right clique ?

His views on gay marriage, and his willingness to air them.

Tolerant.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You can still get 4/1 on Cons Most Votes and Lab Most Seats

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes-most-seats-doubles

Poor value.

Back Con Votes and Labour seats at best prices and you will smash this 4-1.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

Evening Compouter, you wanted Crossover.. now you have it.. with the GOLD STANDARD

It's gotta be a sustained crossover to count, apparently

2 out of the last 3 ICMs have been Tory leads.

No no no. It's like the definition of a recession... ;')

Strange as it seems, Damian Green was responsible for one of PB's most fractious days.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 24s

BREAKING: Police Minister Damian Green has been sacked.

Why's he been sacked ?

I have no fecking idea.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Strange as it seems, Damian Green was responsible for one of PB's most fractious days.

Did he pen a guest post on the use of AV within a Scottish referendum, during Eurovision?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bloody hell, looks like Dominic Grieve has been given the heave ho, I'm still fuming at Edward Garnier's axe in 2012

Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 50s

Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen

Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.

Has Hague gone in yet ?

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Strange as it seems, Damian Green was responsible for one of PB's most fractious days.

Did he pen a guest post on the use of AV within a Scottish referendum, during Eurovision?

Was the night he was arrested, a few people, including those who should have known better, decided to smear him, they all went silent a few hours later, when footage emerged of Gordon Brown publicly admitting in the 80s doing what Damian Green had been arrested for.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Strange as it seems, Damian Green was responsible for one of PB's most fractious days.

Did he pen a guest post on the use of AV within a Scottish referendum, during Eurovision?

Was the night he was arrested, a few people, including those who should have known better, decided to smear him, they all went silent a few hours later, when footage emerged of Gordon Brown publicly admitting in the 80s doing what Damian Green had been arrested for.

I was going for the cheap laugh... (how sad)

I'll get me coat.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Strange as it seems, Damian Green was responsible for one of PB's most fractious days.

Did he pen a guest post on the use of AV within a Scottish referendum, during Eurovision?

Was the night he was arrested, a few people, including those who should have known better, decided to smear him, they all went silent a few hours later, when footage emerged of Gordon Brown publicly admitting in the 80s doing what Damian Green had been arrested for.

I was going for the cheap laugh... (how sad)

I'll get me coat.

Oh don't. Cheap laughs are good

GIN1138 said:

Do we know who's replacing "The Fallen" or will that be announced tomorrow?

And what happens if there is a major crisis in a policy area that has just lost their minister?? How will we all cope? I am scared!

(not really, we can all do without a bit of government!)

Evening all

An interesting day for poll watchers but perhaps time for a little reflection on ICM. It's called "the Gold Standard" by some mainly perhaps because it's been around for so long and provides a measure every month. It's good with trends BUT and this is worth emphasising, I've always said ICM is as capable of producing an outlier as any other pollster.

In my experience, ICM throws out outlier numbers for individual parties and this moves the whole poll. In fainess, the difference in the UKIP and LD numbers between Ashcroft and ICM is statistically enormous - a variation between 7% and 12% is well beyond background noise or anything else.

The UKIP fall has broken the way most of us expected with about 40% going back to the Conservatives but significant numbers moving back to the LDs and Labour.

The other part of this is the remarkable lack of movement between the two largest parties which Nick P confirmed in his canvassing report. We are then left with two significant voter movements since 2010 - the LD to Labour bloc and the various to UKIP which now looks akin to the moves to the LDs and before them the Liberals in previous Parliaments.

Today's polls still leave Labour in a strong position - Ashcroft offers a majority and even ICM would see Ed Milliband fairly secure in No.10 (take out SF and he is almost across the line). The Conservatives are a long way from an overall majority and need a degree of movement from labour that today's polls don't yet suggest. The LDs will be pleased to back above 10% with ICM and may dismiss Ashcroft as an outlier while UKIP are in the reverse position hoping ICM is an outlier which it might well be.

Life_ina_market_town said:

If it is the case that both Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have been sacked, today represents an awful day for the rule of law. There will no longer be any heavyweight supporters of the principle near the top of government.

I didn't have the impression that you were sympathetic to either.

First thought, got to be an outlier. But I'm still going to enjoy the moment

Hague rumours growing in intensity...

Life_ina_market_town said:

If it is the case that both Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have been sacked, today represents an awful day for the rule of law. There will no longer be any heavyweight supporters of the principle near the top of government.

The rule of law, due process and preserving liberties is so out of fashion these days. Everyone knows the only way to preserve our way of life in the face of challenge is to abandon key aspects of that way of life ourselves, stands to reason.

Good to get a probable outlier like this ICM poll - even if, as likely, it is an outlier, it will cause plenty of people to get excited nonetheless, and mix up the narrative for a bit.

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You can get evens on the Lib Dems outpolling UKIP

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/match-bet

That's nailed on now.

You can have 11/10 here, how much?

Really hoping that the rumours prove to be false, Hague has been a good Foreign Secretary and I would be sorry to see him go at this point.

oxfordsimon said:

Hague rumours growing in intensity...

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

Politics Home latest casualty list:

Ken Clarke stands down as Minister without Portfolio

David Jones sacked as Welsh Secretary

David Willetts stands down as Universities Minister, also announces he will not stand again for Parliament in 2015

Andrew Robathan leaves the Northern Ireland Office

Stephen Hammond leaves the Department for Transport

Nick Hurd quits as Minister for Civil Society

Alan Duncan leaves the Department for International Development

Damian Green out as Policing Minister

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/101623/government_reshuffle_latest_departures.html

Green is a loss - an assured media performer who should have gone further....

So David Jones was pushed? Or is sacked just another way of saying left/quit etc.

An interesting point. Is there generally any significance to the language used at such times, or does the media play fast and loose with it as they like? I assume in most instances the terminology is equivalent to football parlance around managers leaving 'by mutual consent' and the like.

SquareRoot said:

Life_ina_market_town said:

If it is the case that both Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have been sacked, today represents an awful day for the rule of law. There will no longer be any heavyweight supporters of the principle near the top of government.

The most disgusting decision IMHO was the hounding of Baroness Elizabeth Butler Sloss.. What the FECK is going on.. The country is going to the dogs if the aggrieved can choose who sits over an enquiry. Whatever they say , I think she has been seriously smeared.

Imagine the next old lag refusing to be sentence by Judge X because the defendant doesn't like the cut of his/her jib.

Frankly I am appalled at todays events.

I have been appalled by the whole hysterical reaction to this issue. Smears and crass innuendo have replaced any sensible journalism on the subject.

I am in no way seeking to diminish the seriousness of the issue of child sex abuse - but unless we can approach it as rational adults, we will never get close to the truth.

I can't think of a single media outlet that has tackled this properly.

Sky claim Grieve has gone. Is the Solicitor General really be lined up as a replacement?

SquareRoot said:

The most disgusting decision IMHO was the hounding of Baroness Elizabeth Butler Sloss.. What the FECK is going on.. The country is going to the dogs if the aggrieved can choose who sits over an enquiry. Whatever they say , I think she has been seriously smeared.

Imagine the next old lag refusing to be sentence by Judge X because the defendant doesn't like the cut of his/her jib.

Frankly I am appalled at todays events.

It is very simple. This will be a Hillsborough-style inquiry. That inquiry adopted a "families first" policy, enabling the families to have greater rights than other interested parties, including those subject to criticism by the inquiry. If this inquiry will be "survivors first", we really will be heading to the dogs.

I'm trying to find the ICM data tables from their last poll. Their site doesn't make finding this easy though.

Pulpstar said:

I'm trying to find the ICM data tables from their last poll. Their site doesn't make finding this easy though.

They're unlikely to be up yet. Try tomorrow.

MarkHopkins said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm trying to find the ICM data tables from their last poll. Their site doesn't make finding this easy though.

They're unlikely to be up yet. Try tomorrow.

Last poll, not this one.

Easterross said:

Evening all and obviously as a Tory I am pleased with the ICM poll. However I think today's collection just prove my point that basically Tories and Labour are neck and neck and everything else froth.

Big reshuffle changes and surprise departures.

One betting thought. Although NPXMP is a nice cap, if you were a Broxtowe voter would you want your MP to be someone who spent 13 years on the back bench when his party was in Government or someone who in 4 years has risen from PPC to Minister and may by tomorrow evening be a Cabinet Minister?

I think people would say they would prefer an MP not encumbered by government work so they could dedicate themselves more fully to constituency work, but from what I gather most would rally behind an MP with a higher profile, unless that profile was about making an arse of themselves. But that is just a gut feeling, especially as rising through the ranks in a party is only partially about ability - knowing the right people and fitting other requirements, such as gender, can certainly aid advancement in conjunction with that ability - as most ministers tend to not be in marginals I would guess, although not all can avoid it of course.

Is there an age angle here? A lot of departing ministers are aged around 60.

HurstLlama said:

CarlottaVance said:

Politics Home latest casualty list:

Ken Clarke stands down as Minister without Portfolio

David Jones sacked as Welsh Secretary

David Willetts stands down as Universities Minister, also announces he will not stand again for Parliament in 2015

Andrew Robathan leaves the Northern Ireland Office

Stephen Hammond leaves the Department for Transport

Nick Hurd quits as Minister for Civil Society

Alan Duncan leaves the Department for International Development

Damian Green out as Policing Minister

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/101623/government_reshuffle_latest_departures.html

Green is a loss - an assured media performer who should have gone further....

These are all pretty junior people, even Clarke these days carries more weight physically than he does politically. The Minister for Civil Society is to be replaced? Well, so what? How many people knew there was such a post. Actually, this reshuffle seems to have the, perhaps unwanted, effect of showing up how many useless mouths there are in the trough. The DfID has a junior minister? Why for heaven's sake? Its sole job is to give away large chunks of cash we don't have; can't Greening do that on her own?

If Cameron wanted to make a real statement about his government he could sack all these people and not replace them. Who, aside from suddenly redundant civil servants, would notice?

As new people will have little chance to make a substantive impact before the election, and so any positive response from the public arising from them being known, if they are at all, coming from shallow media perception of their suitability, I would presume the main purpose of the reshuffle is therefore geared toward Cameron seeing off any internal threats pre-emptively by showing he is promoting the 'right' people, and hoping that any hatred among powerful groups certain junior ministers have built up over the past few years will be lessened by a new face, even if that new face carries on the same policies.

I get a feeling that this reshuffle will be presented in terms of building the team for the second term. Putting in place people who can spend the next 5 years in place.

Or at least that is how I would present such a major shift in personnel!

Mr Jones

Your comment had the potential to get Mike Smithson into trouble.

So going forward you are not permitted to talk about the topic of paedophiles, directly or indirectly.

Just saw a totally libellous tweet about Hague...

Not seeing any downsides in this reshuffle so far. Kenneth Clarke to retire from politics now please, there's a good chap.

oxfordsimon said:

I get a feeling that this reshuffle will be presented in terms of building the team for the second term. Putting in place people who can spend the next 5 years in place.

Or at least that is how I would present such a major shift in personnel!

Or 5 years having to watch from the opposition benches as the two Eds implement their vision.

Another safe seat up next time

Christopher Hope ‏@christopherhope 53s

BREAKING Greg Barker quits as Energy minister, and will leave Parliament at the next general election. He told PM of his decision at weekend

FrancisUrquhart said:

oxfordsimon said:

I get a feeling that this reshuffle will be presented in terms of building the team for the second term. Putting in place people who can spend the next 5 years in place.

Or at least that is how I would present such a major shift in personnel!

Or 5 years having to watch from the opposition benches as the two Eds implement their vision.

For that to be possible, the Eds would have to have a vision. Which if they have got, they are keeping very well hidden.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 24s

BREAKING: Police Minister Damian Green has been sacked.

Why's he been sacked ?

Cameron would like at least some police officers and their families to vote Conservative?

Least surprising news.

Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Osborne will stay as Chancellor

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bloody hell, looks like Dominic Grieve has been given the heave ho, I'm still fuming at Edward Garnier's axe in 2012

Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 50s

Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen

Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.

Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.

If so, 'tis a pity. A government that's bound only by its own conscience is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they are doing it for the finest of motives, it's still making themselves into tinpot gods. If Parliament is supreme...who stops them when they decide to start hurting people for fun?

The people stop them. It's called democracy. Who stops the ECHR hurting people for fun?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil

Much more to come on cabinet reshuffle. including one very major, unexpected change.

For Labour's sake I hope it won't be Osborne, Gove or IDS getting sacked.

TGOHF said:

RobD said:

Just saw a totally libellous tweet about Hague...

Was it "he has done a good job as FS" ?

*titter*