Why the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election – politic

Gallowgate said:

algarkirk said:

Andy_JS said:

algarkirk said:

isam said:

In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

Much truth in this. Assume for a moment that voters are sorts of spectrums, which can be described in a number of ways: from richest to poorest, from PhD to no qualifications; Remain and Rejoin to Ardent Hard Brexit and so on.

To win general elections you need 40%+ of the spectrum to vote for you. More people cluster round the middle of the spectrum than anywhere else - that's a general law of maths and reality - we are mostly middling sorts.

The best way of getting 40%+ to vote for you it to be around the middle, and you can shift your centre a fair way either side of the middle depending on circumstances.

That's what Tories do. The hostility to them comes from some but not all of the ends of the spectrums: least and highest educated, most urban, richest and poorest, most remainy, the loony left the fascist right. None of it comes from the centre.

IMHO they have shifted focus to move their spectrum so as to gain a lot of WWC and to lose Putney and Cambridge, but still occupy a central piece of the spectrum - from Henley to Hartlepool. All their opponents occupy smaller and detached chunks.

One of the best examples is the West Midlands. For instance, Sutton Coldfield and Cannock Chase have totally different demographics but they're now both very safe Tory seats. Solihull and Newcastle-under-Lyme are another such pairing.

Thanks. Yes. And I suggest that from Christchurch and South Holland to Hartlepool and Mansfield, while truly different, they are part of the same spectrum of middling sorts without passionately strong political convictions but all sorts of loyalties in common; that Labour has abandoned its huge spectrum, and the Tories have shifted along to fill it, losing Canterbury, Putney, Oxford, London, Bristol on the way. But middle England is colossal. Look at the political map!

That's all well and good but the government must deliver and not take "middle England" for granted.

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

Yes, and - delightfully - kinabalu himself seems unaware that he comes across as a sneering, narcissistic pillock, as do so many Lefties. Their sense of moral superiority OOZES like Housman's "morbid excrescence".

Which in turn makes people vote for Anyone but the Left.

I only come across like that to those lacking intellect and perception.

Everyone else loves me.

Oh I know this story! You may have convinced yourself that, but we can see you're wearing no clothes.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

Are they centre left

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

No.

The story is wrong but there ARE people pushing for an eternal quasi-lockdown. Masks on public transport, all through next winter.

If they want masks why not a juicy dollop of social distancing? I can see that too. Oh let's close theatres in the winter. And cinemas. Too dangerous!

We cannot let them normalise this shit

Reposting this from earlier today to calm you down...

Vaccination boosts naturally enhanced neutralizing breadth to SARS-CoV-2 one year after infection
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.07.443175v1
Over one year after its inception, the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains difficult to control despite the availability of several excellent vaccines. Progress in controlling the pandemic is slowed by the emergence of variants that appear to be more transmissible and more resistant to antibodies. Here we report on a cohort of 63 COVID-19-convalescent individuals assessed at 1.3, 6.2 and 12 months after infection, 41% of whom also received mRNA vaccines. In the absence of vaccination antibody reactivity to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2, neutralizing activity and the number of RBD-specific memory B cells remain relatively stable from 6 to 12 months. Vaccination increases all components of the humoral response, and as expected, results in serum neutralizing activities against variants of concern that are comparable to or greater than neutralizing activity against the original Wuhan Hu-1 achieved by vaccination of naive individuals. The mechanism underlying these broad-based responses involves ongoing antibody somatic mutation, memory B cell clonal turnover, and development of monoclonal antibodies that are exceptionally resistant to SARS-CoV-2 RBD mutations, including those found in variants of concern. In addition, B cell clones expressing broad and potent antibodies are selectively retained in the repertoire over time and expand dramatically after vaccination. The data suggest that immunity in convalescent individuals will be very long lasting and that convalescent individuals who receive available mRNA vaccines will produce antibodies and memory B cells that should be protective against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants. Should memory responses evolve in a similar manner in vaccinated individuals, additional appropriately timed boosting with available vaccines could cover most circulating variants of concern.

Government might well encourage those over the age of (say) 50 to get booster shots this autumn with the second generation vaccines.
it would certainly be sensible for the over 65s.

I don't see that as any more of a big deal than the normal annual flu shot.

Booster shots, fine. All good


And I have no doubts Boris would like to get rid of every restriction tomorrow, if he could. We already know he was prepared to see "the bodies piled high" to avoid another lockdown

What worries me is that he is surrounded and advised by nannying scientists, the sort of middlebrow pearl-clutchers who want to Prohibit alcohol - as any drink is a risk - and who love to lecture and police the silly public.

Gallowgate said:

squareroot2 said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

You cannot assume everyone on PB who isn't left wing thinks the same way.. unless you are tim...

It's all relative. @londonpubman and @HYUFD think I'm the "hard left". 🤷‍♂️

Gallowgate said:

squareroot2 said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

You cannot assume everyone on PB who isn't left wing thinks the same way.. unless you are tim...

It's all relative. @londonpubman and @HYUFD think I'm the "hard left". 🤷‍♂️

williamglenn said:

Leon said:

The hollowing of the American city

Average one bed apartment rents in New York City have fallen by 27% in a year

In San Francisco they have fallen by an incredible 45%

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2021/05/10/where-apartment-rents-are-falling-fastest-in-the-us-infographic/?sh=10b4657f1abf

The population of California overall has fallen for the first time in history.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/07/us/california-population-drop/index.html

Charles said:

Alistair said:

Charles said:

Alistair said:

I see "Cancel Culture" now includes being caught for doping your race horses now.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/10/bob-baffert-medina-spirit-kentucky-derby-horse-racing-cancel-culture-disqualification

Wither the fearless free speech warriors who will defend this noble horse doper?

I’m more concerned about his defence that a groom urinated on the horse’s food…

Omg, I missed this on first read

Baffert has had at least 30 positive doping tests for his horses, but insisted to Fox that he runs a clean operation.

How is he still operating?

I know… are they all his own horses or does he train for other owners…

Gallowgate said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

Aye, with policies like this:

Police officers need better and more intensive training to protect all basic and human rights, such as freedom of the press, or in the fight against racism. That must become one of the main contents of police training. And it means: a social pluralism must be reflected in the composition of the police to a greater extent than before.

All people have the exclusive right to define their own gender. Intersexual, transsexual and non-binary people have the right to have their self-defined gender officially recognized without bureaucratic or medical hurdles. Self-determination requires comprehensive protection from violence.

Germany's colonial past has been dealt with far too little in the cultural sphere as well. Extensive research is needed on the origin of objects collected and intangible cultural assets from colonial contexts, their return to the societies of origin, and the decolonization of cultural institutions and the public domain. This can only be done in close cooperation with the descendants of the formerly colonized, domestically as well as internationally.

Racism is an undeniable reality in our society and is more or less present in all structures. Racism - and every other form of group-related hostility towards people - means that many people in Germany are not safe.

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

I don't think that actually. This is bespoke for @isam.

Seems everybody bar him is answering.

Gallowgate said:

williamglenn said:

Leon said:

The hollowing of the American city

Average one bed apartment rents in New York City have fallen by 27% in a year

In San Francisco they have fallen by an incredible 45%

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2021/05/10/where-apartment-rents-are-falling-fastest-in-the-us-infographic/?sh=10b4657f1abf

The population of California overall has fallen for the first time in history.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/07/us/california-population-drop/index.html

Aren't they all moving to Arizona and Utah?

I swear loads of American "influencers" suddenly live in Salt Lake City.

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

I don't think that actually. This is bespoke for @isam.

Seems everybody bar him is answering.

I believe it is exactly what you think hence the bafflement with @isam.

An occasional "bafflement with isam" is something you and I have in common tbf. Just that it's not exactly the same thing which does the baffling.

Oh god mate just relax. We're far too dumb for your intricate games. I mean if they give you comfort then by all means crack on but it's quite tiring for us and surely must be for you also.

You even edited that four line pithy post.

How about this: you win PB. Does that help?

I really don't know what your problem is.

I'm simply probing someone and something. Here we have somebody (isam) who is working class and used to vote Labour. He then got so livid about free movement and its impact on his main concern - the living standards of the low paid - that he voted Leave and then Tory to deliver Leave.

Ok. So it's now done. We've left. Free movement is over. But he is STILL incredibly anti Labour. I'm curious as to why and have therefore asked him. If you and others don't find this interesting, fine. Just babble on about some other shit.

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

You don't scan for me.

With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incredibly anti-Labour.

There is no way, no way on earth, the Tories can be considered better on this issue than Labour. Just look at their respective records and manifestos since year dot. Even the Blair government who you castigate for free movement. Ok, they allowed that, but they also (against Tory opposition) brought in the minimum wage. You really think the positive impact of this on the low paid didn't dwarf that of free movement? C'mon.

It makes no sense, the way Starmer and Labour can do nothing right for you and Johnson's mob no wrong. There's something else going on. It's bugging me. So tell me please.

IN a number of industries and skills, the minimum wage has simply become the norm. Previously quite a few such trades and jobs were quite well paid.

If you'd talked to a few of the people who moved from trade to trade as their wages continuously fell, you know where alot of support for Brexit came from.

Yes, I'm sure. But the minimum wage was an iconic policy to help the low paid and it came from Labour against Tory opposition. And free movement is gone. So why would somebody whose main voting driver is the material betterment of the low paid be so virulently against the Labour Party now? This is what I'm probing.

The Tories introduced the Living Wage and have continued to increase it annually. The Living Wage under the Tories is in real terms much more than Labour's Minimum Wage.

They've done ok-to-fine on the LW/MW. But look, I don't have the time for a torrid tumble with you right now and that's nothing but a literal fact. Cheers and beers.

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

I don't think that actually. This is bespoke for @isam.

Seems everybody bar him is answering.

I believe it is exactly what you think hence the bafflement with @isam.

An occasional "bafflement with isam" is something you and I have in common tbf. Just that it's not exactly the same thing which does the baffling.

Oh god mate just relax. We're far too dumb for your intricate games. I mean if they give you comfort then by all means crack on but it's quite tiring for us and surely must be for you also.

You even edited that four line pithy post.

How about this: you win PB. Does that help?

I really don't know what your problem is.

I'm simply probing someone and something. Here we have a PB poster (isam) who is working class and used to vote Labour. He then got so livid about free movement and its impact on his main concern - the living standards of the low paid - that he voted Leave and then Tory to deliver Leave.

Ok. So it's now done. We've left. Free movement is over. But he is STILL incredibly anti Labour. I'm curious as to why and have therefore asked him. If you and others don't find this interesting, fine, just babble on about some other shit.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gallowgate said:

squareroot2 said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

You cannot assume everyone on PB who isn't left wing thinks the same way.. unless you are tim...

It's all relative. @londonpubman and @HYUFD think I'm the "hard left". 🤷‍♂️

The terminally stupid have on occasion labelled me 'far right' and a 'leftie'.

MattW said:

Gallowgate said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

Aye, with policies like this:

Police officers need better and more intensive training to protect all basic and human rights, such as freedom of the press, or in the fight against racism. That must become one of the main contents of police training. And it means: a social pluralism must be reflected in the composition of the police to a greater extent than before.

All people have the exclusive right to define their own gender. Intersexual, transsexual and non-binary people have the right to have their self-defined gender officially recognized without bureaucratic or medical hurdles. Self-determination requires comprehensive protection from violence.

Germany's colonial past has been dealt with far too little in the cultural sphere as well. Extensive research is needed on the origin of objects collected and intangible cultural assets from colonial contexts, their return to the societies of origin, and the decolonization of cultural institutions and the public domain. This can only be done in close cooperation with the descendants of the formerly colonized, domestically as well as internationally.

Racism is an undeniable reality in our society and is more or less present in all structures. Racism - and every other form of group-related hostility towards people - means that many people in Germany are not safe.

The whole draft manifesto is here:
https://cms.gruene.de/uploads/documents/2021_Wahlprogrammentwurf.pdf

Stuff like balanced govt budget, not leaving Nato, C02 targets which are getting a bit closer to catching up to ours etc.

There are more UK Green like parties starting to emerge outboard from the Gruene.

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gallowgate said:

squareroot2 said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

You cannot assume everyone on PB who isn't left wing thinks the same way.. unless you are tim...

It's all relative. @londonpubman and @HYUFD think I'm the "hard left". 🤷‍♂️

The terminally stupid have on occasion labelled me 'far right' and a 'leftie'.

They’ve worked out you’re an extremist, but can’t fathom which way you swing?

williamglenn said:

This is the guy who's usually quoted to show that the US is backing the EU on Northern Ireland. He's an anti-British fanatic.

"@RepKevinBoyle
It’s known in US national security circles large segments of the Irish media & some politicians have been compromised by British intelligence. Long overdue that some of them are being exposed or soon will be."

https://twitter.com/RepKevinBoyle/status/1391746352888025090

IshmaelZ said:

stodge said:

Charles said:

Alistair said:

Charles said:

Alistair said:

I see "Cancel Culture" now includes being caught for doping your race horses now.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/10/bob-baffert-medina-spirit-kentucky-derby-horse-racing-cancel-culture-disqualification

Wither the fearless free speech warriors who will defend this noble horse doper?

I’m more concerned about his defence that a groom urinated on the horse’s food…

Omg, I missed this on first read

Baffert has had at least 30 positive doping tests for his horses, but insisted to Fox that he runs a clean operation.

How is he still operating?

I know… are they all his own horses or does he train for other owners…

No, they aren't "his" but he does seem to have incredible bad luck such as the pain relief the groom was wearing which rubbed onto a horse and caused it to fail a post-race test.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/kentucky-derby-winner-medina-spirit-tests-positive-for-banned-raceday-substance/488912

The horse has NOT been disqualified at this time - the Kentucky racing authorities are waiting the results of further tests.

That sort of bad luck is spookily common. The usual story is the groom was taking the banned substance and had a pee in the stable.

williamglenn said:

This is the guy who's usually quoted to show that the US is backing the EU on Northern Ireland. He's an anti-British fanatic.

"@RepKevinBoyle
It’s known in US national security circles large segments of the Irish media & some politicians have been compromised by British intelligence. Long overdue that some of them are being exposed or soon will be."

https://twitter.com/RepKevinBoyle/status/1391746352888025090

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gallowgate said:

squareroot2 said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

You cannot assume everyone on PB who isn't left wing thinks the same way.. unless you are tim...

It's all relative. @londonpubman and @HYUFD think I'm the "hard left". 🤷‍♂️

The terminally stupid have on occasion labelled me 'far right' and a 'leftie'.

If the Corbyn years taught me anything it is that the left is full of right wingers, apparently. I think only half the time did they mean people were right wing 'for a leftie' rather than actually being right wing.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

Taz said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

Hmm, I have read the opposite elsewhere that it doesn't show major immune escape and a care home which had an outbreak of this variant saw no deaths and no major symptoms with 15 infections among the vaccinated.

As the article,says good news for a Pfizer. They will be able to tweak the vaccine.

Zero Hedge seems to be a little alarmist.

Zerohedge is not a little alarmist

Zerohedge is a contrarian shit stirrer funded by dodgy Russian money that delights in spreading fear and panic among credulous westerners like @Leon

It's also founded and run by a convicted insider trader who is banned from working in the Securities Industry.

Plus, the allegations that they receive money from hedge funds for running stories on stocks (to help send the price in one direction or the other) are pretty credible.

tlg86 said:

On the German Greens, I don't follow German politics closely, but I think the Left here shouldn't get excited about it spreading here.

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

All Greens are watermelons.

Avocados are probably a more appropriate fruit

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

I don't think that actually. This is bespoke for @isam.

Seems everybody bar him is answering.

I believe it is exactly what you think hence the bafflement with @isam.

An occasional "bafflement with isam" is something you and I have in common tbf. Just that it's not exactly the same thing which does the baffling.

Oh god mate just relax. We're far too dumb for your intricate games. I mean if they give you comfort then by all means crack on but it's quite tiring for us and surely must be for you also.

You even edited that four line pithy post.

How about this: you win PB. Does that help?

I really don't know what your problem is.

I'm simply probing someone and something. Here we have a PB poster (isam) who is working class and used to vote Labour. He then got so livid about free movement and its impact on his main concern - the living standards of the low paid - that he voted Leave and then Tory to deliver Leave.

Ok. So it's now done. We've left. Free movement is over. But he is STILL incredibly anti Labour. I'm curious as to why and have therefore asked him. If you and others don't find this interesting, fine, just babble on about some other shit.

You know what else is done? The minimum wage. Its done, below minimum wages are over. But you think people should STILL vote Labour because of it 24 years later.

If the most recent dividing line was on the Tories favour, why overturn that because of a different one that was over a quarter of a century ago?

IshmaelZ said:

dixiedean said:

IshmaelZ said:

stodge said:

Charles said:

Alistair said:

Charles said:

Alistair said:

I see "Cancel Culture" now includes being caught for doping your race horses now.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/10/bob-baffert-medina-spirit-kentucky-derby-horse-racing-cancel-culture-disqualification

Wither the fearless free speech warriors who will defend this noble horse doper?

I’m more concerned about his defence that a groom urinated on the horse’s food…

Omg, I missed this on first read

Baffert has had at least 30 positive doping tests for his horses, but insisted to Fox that he runs a clean operation.

How is he still operating?

I know… are they all his own horses or does he train for other owners…

No, they aren't "his" but he does seem to have incredible bad luck such as the pain relief the groom was wearing which rubbed onto a horse and caused it to fail a post-race test.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/kentucky-derby-winner-medina-spirit-tests-positive-for-banned-raceday-substance/488912

The horse has NOT been disqualified at this time - the Kentucky racing authorities are waiting the results of further tests.

That sort of bad luck is spookily common. The usual story is the groom was taking the banned substance and had a pee in the stable.

Given that you might think
DO NOT PISS IN THE STABLES!!
Would be prominent in the job description.

Everybody pisses in stables

And your rule would ruin the excuse

IanB2 said:

A woman in Tuscany is under observation after she was given six doses of the Pfizer vaccine by mistake....

stodge said:

I have to say Mrs Stodge is seething tonight.

Not, I stress, because Count Binfa-ce didn't quite make it to the London Mayoralty.

It seems Transport for London, in their infinite wisdom, has decided to celebrate our "freedom" by instigating six successive weekends of engineering works on our tube lines.

Her view is they've had plenty of time to do all this work while no one has been travelling and such work should be suspended through the summer to allow people to get out and about.

Speaking of "freedom", I saw some anti-lockdown graffiti on one of our local bus stops from an organisation calling itself the "White Rose". Now, I'm sure that isn't a reference to some English county but it's insulting to the real heroes and heroines of the White Rose in Munich during WW2.

Fortunately, no one takes the British incarnation seriously.

williamglenn said:

Apparently George Galloway is threatening to stand in Batley and Spen.

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gallowgate said:

squareroot2 said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

You cannot assume everyone on PB who isn't left wing thinks the same way.. unless you are tim...

It's all relative. @londonpubman and @HYUFD think I'm the "hard left". 🤷‍♂️

The terminally stupid have on occasion labelled me 'far right' and a 'leftie'.

Were they just suggesting you’re deeply confused ?

stodge said:

I have to say Mrs Stodge is seething tonight.

Not, I stress, because Count Binfa-ce didn't quite make it to the London Mayoralty.

It seems Transport for London, in their infinite wisdom, has decided to celebrate our "freedom" by instigating six successive weekends of engineering works on our tube lines.

Her view is they've had plenty of time to do all this work while no one has been travelling and such work should be suspended through the summer to allow people to get out and about.

Speaking of "freedom", I saw some anti-lockdown graffiti on one of our local bus stops from an organisation calling itself the "White Rose". Now, I'm sure that isn't a reference to some English county but it's insulting to the real heroes and heroines of the White Rose in Munich during WW2.

Fortunately, no one takes the British incarnation seriously.

squareroot2 said:

IshmaelZ said:

dixiedean said:

IshmaelZ said:

stodge said:

Charles said:

Alistair said:

Charles said:

Alistair said:

I see "Cancel Culture" now includes being caught for doping your race horses now.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/10/bob-baffert-medina-spirit-kentucky-derby-horse-racing-cancel-culture-disqualification

Wither the fearless free speech warriors who will defend this noble horse doper?

I’m more concerned about his defence that a groom urinated on the horse’s food…

Omg, I missed this on first read

Baffert has had at least 30 positive doping tests for his horses, but insisted to Fox that he runs a clean operation.

How is he still operating?

I know… are they all his own horses or does he train for other owners…

No, they aren't "his" but he does seem to have incredible bad luck such as the pain relief the groom was wearing which rubbed onto a horse and caused it to fail a post-race test.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/kentucky-derby-winner-medina-spirit-tests-positive-for-banned-raceday-substance/488912

The horse has NOT been disqualified at this time - the Kentucky racing authorities are waiting the results of further tests.

That sort of bad luck is spookily common. The usual story is the groom was taking the banned substance and had a pee in the stable.

Given that you might think
DO NOT PISS IN THE STABLES!!
Would be prominent in the job description.

Everybody pisses in stables

And your rule would ruin the excuse

Only in other peoples. I take a pee in the fields...

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Centre-left vote in Europe

UK
Lowest since 1935

Austria
Lowest since 1911

Germany
Lowest since 1932

France
Lowest ever

Italy
Lowest ever

N'lands
Lowest ever

Sweden
Lowest since 1908

Finland
2nd lowest

Spain
3rd lowest since democracy

Maybe it's not Brexit or Starmer?
5:15 PM · May 10, 2021·Twitter Web App

And how does it look if you do Center Left + Green?

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Apparently George Galloway is threatening to stand in Batley and Spen.

Well if Batley and Spen is going to attract losers who stood in Holyrood then it won't be long before Salmond announces he's standing in Batley and Spen.

dixiedean said:

MattW said:

Gallowgate said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

Aye, with policies like this:

Police officers need better and more intensive training to protect all basic and human rights, such as freedom of the press, or in the fight against racism. That must become one of the main contents of police training. And it means: a social pluralism must be reflected in the composition of the police to a greater extent than before.

All people have the exclusive right to define their own gender. Intersexual, transsexual and non-binary people have the right to have their self-defined gender officially recognized without bureaucratic or medical hurdles. Self-determination requires comprehensive protection from violence.

Germany's colonial past has been dealt with far too little in the cultural sphere as well. Extensive research is needed on the origin of objects collected and intangible cultural assets from colonial contexts, their return to the societies of origin, and the decolonization of cultural institutions and the public domain. This can only be done in close cooperation with the descendants of the formerly colonized, domestically as well as internationally.

Racism is an undeniable reality in our society and is more or less present in all structures. Racism - and every other form of group-related hostility towards people - means that many people in Germany are not safe.

The whole draft manifesto is here:
https://cms.gruene.de/uploads/documents/2021_Wahlprogrammentwurf.pdf

Stuff like balanced govt budget, not leaving Nato, C02 targets which are getting a bit closer to catching up to ours etc.

The combination of the policies you highlight, and the ones Gallowgate outlines probably puts them on the centre left...

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

All Greens are watermelons.

Not my wife. Full-on eco-authoritarian.

williamglenn said:

Apparently George Galloway is threatening to stand in Batley and Spen.

tlg86 said:

On the German Greens, I don't follow German politics closely, but I think the Left here shouldn't get excited about it spreading here.

BigRich said:

williamglenn said:

Apparently George Galloway is threatening to stand in Batley and Spen.

I could see George doing better in the 'Airdrie and Shotts' by-election where Unionist voters may find it easier to switch to him than to other unionist party's, but may be too late to get on the ballot.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Apparently George Galloway is threatening to stand in Batley and Spen.

Well if Batley and Spen is going to attract losers who stood in Holyrood then it won't be long before Salmond announces he's standing in Batley and Spen.

They could come to US and stand for Laurel and Hardy.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:

On the German Greens, I don't follow German politics closely, but I think the Left here shouldn't get excited about it spreading here.

Arguably "the Left here" should be worried in case the German success (if it happens) lends credibility to the UK Green Party as a repository for voters disillusioned, or more likely baffled, by Labour.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

I see "Cancel Culture" now includes being caught for doping your race horses now.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/10/bob-baffert-medina-spirit-kentucky-derby-horse-racing-cancel-culture-disqualification

Wither the fearless free speech warriors who will defend this noble horse doper?

He reckons the groom pissed on the hay the horse ate and the cough medicine subsequently showed up in it.

i) Hay is normally hung up
ii) If you take a piss in a horse's stable it's generally onto the straw.
iii) This is an animal worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, you aren't going to piss on it's hay.
iv) The horse wouldn't eat the pissed on hay.
v) Even if the horse did eat the pissed on hay with the groom's cough syrup the amount of steroid coming back through the horses' own piss would be infintesimal.

I blame an overdose of Vitamin Hay.