Why the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election – politic

HarryFreeman said:

Leon said:

HarryFreeman said:

Boris rowing back on Step 4 being the end of restrictions.

Hmm.

What did he say? I want all this crap GONE

He said "we will be laying out what the world will look like once we get to June 21st.."

Back on that old 'King of the World" fantasy, then ?

kinabalu said:

isam said:

In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

You don't scan for me.

With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incredibly anti-Labour.

There is no way, no way on earth, the Tories can be considered better on this issue than Labour. Just look at their respective records and manifestos since year dot. Even the Blair government who you castigate for free movement. Ok, they allowed that, but they also (against Tory opposition) brought in the minimum wage. You really think the positive impact of this on the low paid didn't dwarf that of free movement? C'mon.

It makes no sense, the way Starmer and Labour can do nothing right for you and Johnson's mob no wrong. There's something else going on. It's bugging me. So tell me please.

There are different ways of improving the lot of the low paid. Labour do not have a monopoly on this.

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

That's ridiculous

And therefore almost inevitable.

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kinabalu said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just got my vaccine marching orders from my GP.

Booked in for this Sunday. Thrilled!

Well done! Eagerly awaiting my appointment. Hoping that I'll be able to book my second within a few weeks too.

Not to play one-up on you, Max, but I've had my 2nd jab now and am therefore pretty much immune. And what a boost it gives you. I feel so strong, so powerful. Gonna go out there soon and give all the people a big fat kiss. I'll kiss the men, I'll kiss the beautiful women, I'll kiss EVERYONE on the Finchley Road!

Careful, there's some very dodgy people on Finchley Road.

Avoid 788-790 Finchley Road ...

I used to use the cashpoint at the Barclays that used to be beneath that building all the time, and never knew...

kinabalu said:

isam said:

In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

You don't scan for me.

With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incredibly anti-Labour.

There is no way, no way on earth, the Tories can be considered better on this issue than Labour. Just look at their respective records and manifestos since year dot. Even the Blair government who you castigate for free movement. Ok, they allowed that, but they also (against Tory opposition) brought in the minimum wage. You really think the positive impact of this on the low paid didn't dwarf that of free movement? C'mon.

It makes no sense, the way Starmer and Labour can do nothing right for you and Johnson's mob no wrong. There's something else going on. It's bugging me. So tell me please.

IN a number of industries and skills, the minimum wage has simply become the norm. Previously quite a few such trades and jobs were quite well paid.

If you'd talked to a few of the people who moved from trade to trade as their wages continuously fell, you know where alot of support for Brexit came from.

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kinabalu said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just got my vaccine marching orders from my GP.

Booked in for this Sunday. Thrilled!

Well done! Eagerly awaiting my appointment. Hoping that I'll be able to book my second within a few weeks too.

Not to play one-up on you, Max, but I've had my 2nd jab now and am therefore pretty much immune. And what a boost it gives you. I feel so strong, so powerful. Gonna go out there soon and give all the people a big fat kiss. I'll kiss the men, I'll kiss the beautiful women, I'll kiss EVERYONE on the Finchley Road!

Careful, there's some very dodgy people on Finchley Road.

Avoid 788-790 Finchley Road ...

tbh I never did understand what that story was all about.

Pulpstar said:

Once everyone is vaxxed up, you probably want to let something like the Indian or Kent variant rip; if you lock down till a vax resistant strain is the dominant type, well that puts you back about 10 spaces.

This is a really crucial point: if the Indian strain is more transmittable but is only likely to cause asymptomatic infections, then one should be keen to let it run through the vaccinated population, as it effectively acts like a booster shot, and gives the immune system more cv19-like features to glom on to.

Deborah Mattinson
@debmattinson
·
20m
SOME PERSONAL NEWS!!!

I shall be leaving the brilliant team
@BritainThinks
in June and joining
@Keir_Starmer
and his team as Director of Strategy in July. I'm looking forward to playing a part in helping Labour reconnect with the voters it has lost.


You gotta admire her bravery.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Once everyone is vaxxed up, you probably want to let something like the Indian or Kent variant rip; if you lock down till a vax resistant strain is the dominant type, well that puts you back about 10 spaces.

This is a really crucial point: if the Indian strain is more transmittable but is only likely to cause asymptomatic infections, then one should be keen to let it run through the vaccinated population, as it effectively acts like a booster shot, and gives the immune system more cv19-like features to glom on to.

I'm sceptical we'll need booster shots for that reason. The EU's 1.8bn dose deal could be a big waste of money.

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Why not?

The Tories are the ones fighting for and winning for them.

Labour are the ones who stood in their way.

Not you.

(And don't be silly.)

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

Hmm, I have read the opposite elsewhere that it doesn't show major immune escape and a care home which had an outbreak of this variant saw no deaths and no major symptoms with 15 infections among the vaccinated.

As the article,says good news for a Pfizer. They will be able to tweak the vaccine.

Zero Hedge seems to be a little alarmist.

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

Though 'Ravindra Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge and one of the study’s authors, told a press conference on Monday the variant discovered in India has mutations that "enable immune escape" and that "we should be assuming it’s as transmissible" as the one first identified in the UK. To be sure, the vaccines "will still protect against severe disease,” he added.'

"A modest ability" to evade antibodies generated by the Pfizer vaccine.

It's not very concerning for countries with high levels of vaccination, but it is obviously so for India.

Aaron Bastani
@AaronBastani
·
7m
I’ve written this because I’ve generally believed political leadership on the centre left was going to skip gen x, somewhat like in US (please don’t say Kamala Harris).

Burnham is making me re-think that!

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

No.

The story is wrong but there ARE people pushing for an eternal quasi-lockdown. Masks on public transport, all through next winter.

If they want masks why not a juicy dollop of social distancing? I can see that too. Oh let's close theatres in the winter. And cinemas. Too dangerous!

We cannot let them normalise this shit

Gonna be a strange, new, unfamiliar world appearing to my mind on Monday.
Not sure I'll be braving a sauna just yet.

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

They Want Us To Wear Masks Forever

I won't be wearing a mask after 17th June.

It should be voluntary, or some such fudge, to appease the bedwetters.

david_herdson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Cookie said:

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.

Seats which voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 but now have LD MPs eg Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, St Albans etc tend to be amongst the wealthiest, most educated and poshest in the country.

They voted Remain largely for economic reasons and are fiscally conservative but socially liberal (ie the opposite of Northern and Midlands Redwall seats). As the Tories increasingly move to RedWall values they have left a gap in other similar Cameroon Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham, Guildford, Henley, Esher and Walton as last week's results showed and they are where the LDs will be focusing on

Doesn't help the Labour Party of course

It does as the LDs are more likely to back Starmer's Labour Party over Boris' Tories if 2024 produces a hung parliament

That's what people said in 2009.

If LD seats are in Cameroon areas, then even in a Hung Parliament it might end up depending upon the results like it did in 2010. Especially now Brexit won't be an issue anymore.

Davey was comfortable in the Coalition.

That coalition was one led by Cameron who had conciously moved the Tories to the centre on social policy (which was one thing that gave UKIP space to grow on the right).

But more importantly (apart from the numbers), Labour was tired, fractious and losing seats whereas the Tories had just gained a load, which not only was a positive point when it came to 'mandate' but also meant they were in the mood for compromise if it meant a shot at office. Now, whether Labour's yet in that mindset remains to be seen but the Conservatives certainly no longer are.

I'm not sure that my Red Wall area could be called "socially conservative". Though that may vary heavily by social group.

I think more would more identify with Thatcher's 'household economics'.

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

Yes, and - delightfully - kinabalu himself seems unaware that he comes across as a sneering, narcissistic pillock, as do so many Lefties. Their sense of moral superiority OOZES like Housman's "morbid excrescence".

Which in turn makes people vote for Anyone but the Left.

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

You don't scan for me.

With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incredibly anti-Labour.

There is no way, no way on earth, the Tories can be considered better on this issue than Labour. Just look at their respective records and manifestos since year dot. Even the Blair government who you castigate for free movement. Ok, they allowed that, but they also (against Tory opposition) brought in the minimum wage. You really think the positive impact of this on the low paid didn't dwarf that of free movement? C'mon.

It makes no sense, the way Starmer and Labour can do nothing right for you and Johnson's mob no wrong. There's something else going on. It's bugging me. So tell me please.

IN a number of industries and skills, the minimum wage has simply become the norm. Previously quite a few such trades and jobs were quite well paid.

If you'd talked to a few of the people who moved from trade to trade as their wages continuously fell, you know where alot of support for Brexit came from.

Yes, I'm sure. But the minimum wage was an iconic policy to help the low paid and it came from Labour against Tory opposition. And free movement is gone. So why would somebody whose main voting driver is the material betterment of the low paid be so virulently against the Labour Party now? This is what I'm probing.

Gallowgate said:

algarkirk said:

Andy_JS said:

algarkirk said:

isam said:

In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

Much truth in this. Assume for a moment that voters are sorts of spectrums, which can be described in a number of ways: from richest to poorest, from PhD to no qualifications; Remain and Rejoin to Ardent Hard Brexit and so on.

To win general elections you need 40%+ of the spectrum to vote for you. More people cluster round the middle of the spectrum than anywhere else - that's a general law of maths and reality - we are mostly middling sorts.

The best way of getting 40%+ to vote for you it to be around the middle, and you can shift your centre a fair way either side of the middle depending on circumstances.

That's what Tories do. The hostility to them comes from some but not all of the ends of the spectrums: least and highest educated, most urban, richest and poorest, most remainy, the loony left the fascist right. None of it comes from the centre.

IMHO they have shifted focus to move their spectrum so as to gain a lot of WWC and to lose Putney and Cambridge, but still occupy a central piece of the spectrum - from Henley to Hartlepool. All their opponents occupy smaller and detached chunks.

One of the best examples is the West Midlands. For instance, Sutton Coldfield and Cannock Chase have totally different demographics but they're now both very safe Tory seats. Solihull and Newcastle-under-Lyme are another such pairing.

Thanks. Yes. And I suggest that from Christchurch and South Holland to Hartlepool and Mansfield, while truly different, they are part of the same spectrum of middling sorts without passionately strong political convictions but all sorts of loyalties in common; that Labour has abandoned its huge spectrum, and the Tories have shifted along to fill it, losing Canterbury, Putney, Oxford, London, Bristol on the way. But middle England is colossal. Look at the political map!

That's all well and good but the government must deliver and not take "middle England" for granted.

Absolutely agreed.

If they do and if Labour make no effort to return to Middle England, then the Party could get and will deserve a Japanese style period in office. Unless or until they lose touch and/or Labour regain it.

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

I don't think that actually. This is bespoke for @isam.

Seems everybody bar him is answering.

Floater said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1391786544416137218

CONFIRMED by PM.. time coming "when we learn to live responsibly" with the virus "and cease to rely on govt edicts and make our own decisions."
Quote Tweet

The media circus was focused on where labour did badly last week.

Perhaps the conservatives had a look at where they didn't do so well.

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

No.

The story is wrong but there ARE people pushing for an eternal quasi-lockdown. Masks on public transport, all through next winter.

If they want masks why not a juicy dollop of social distancing? I can see that too. Oh let's close theatres in the winter. And cinemas. Too dangerous!

We cannot let them normalise this shit

Reposting this from earlier today to calm you down...

Vaccination boosts naturally enhanced neutralizing breadth to SARS-CoV-2 one year after infection
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.07.443175v1
Over one year after its inception, the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains difficult to control despite the availability of several excellent vaccines. Progress in controlling the pandemic is slowed by the emergence of variants that appear to be more transmissible and more resistant to antibodies. Here we report on a cohort of 63 COVID-19-convalescent individuals assessed at 1.3, 6.2 and 12 months after infection, 41% of whom also received mRNA vaccines. In the absence of vaccination antibody reactivity to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2, neutralizing activity and the number of RBD-specific memory B cells remain relatively stable from 6 to 12 months. Vaccination increases all components of the humoral response, and as expected, results in serum neutralizing activities against variants of concern that are comparable to or greater than neutralizing activity against the original Wuhan Hu-1 achieved by vaccination of naive individuals. The mechanism underlying these broad-based responses involves ongoing antibody somatic mutation, memory B cell clonal turnover, and development of monoclonal antibodies that are exceptionally resistant to SARS-CoV-2 RBD mutations, including those found in variants of concern. In addition, B cell clones expressing broad and potent antibodies are selectively retained in the repertoire over time and expand dramatically after vaccination. The data suggest that immunity in convalescent individuals will be very long lasting and that convalescent individuals who receive available mRNA vaccines will produce antibodies and memory B cells that should be protective against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants. Should memory responses evolve in a similar manner in vaccinated individuals, additional appropriately timed boosting with available vaccines could cover most circulating variants of concern.

Government might well encourage those over the age of (say) 50 to get booster shots this autumn with the second generation vaccines.
it would certainly be sensible for the over 65s.

I don't see that as any more of a big deal than the normal annual flu shot.

Centre-left vote in Europe

UK
Lowest since 1935

Austria
Lowest since 1911

Germany
Lowest since 1932

France
Lowest ever

Italy
Lowest ever

N'lands
Lowest ever

Sweden
Lowest since 1908

Finland
2nd lowest

Spain
3rd lowest since democracy

Maybe it's not Brexit or Starmer?
5:15 PM · May 10, 2021·Twitter Web App

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

I don't think that actually. This is bespoke for @isam.

Seems everybody bar him is answering.

I believe it is exactly what you think hence the bafflement with @isam.

Oh I know you are also quite insecure on here (for what reason goodness only knows - perhaps it's your fear of being seen as a class traitor) and hence attempt to position yourself as you have done here with maximum fluidity and plausible deniability, but I do believe you think that.

Gallowgate said:

dixiedean said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

all university students to return to in person teaching.

Term has all but finished

Yes. My eldest has finished a 3 year degree. Slightly less than 5 of the 9 scheduled terms...

I have exams starting Wednesday and finish next week...

More exams?

Is the fee per 6 minutes?

Best of luck.

Floater said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1391786544416137218

CONFIRMED by PM.. time coming "when we learn to live responsibly" with the virus "and cease to rely on govt edicts and make our own decisions."
Quote Tweet

The great minds of PB will collapse at the very notion.

Govt edicts to make our own decisions is what has been applauded from the getgo on here.

Cookie said:

Floater said:

Leon said:

They Want Us To Wear Masks Forever

To be honest if I am on a train for nigh on an hour I might be well tempted to wear one

Jeez, really?
I can do a mask for a two minute pop into the butcher, but I get seriously irritated having to wear one for more than ten minutes or so. I went to Ikea at the weekend - which because the purveyors of pleasant and affordable furniture force you to walk past every fucking thing they sell and people adopt a special 'slow amble' gait in Ikea, never takes less than an hour to get around - I was feeling properly homicidal by the end.
My local climbing centre insists you wear masks while you climb. Now I like this place and feel some loyalty towards them but they can, frankly, fuck off.
Basically I'm not going to start playing a proper part in the consumer economy while I'm forced to wear a mask. Everyone whose at risk will have been jabbed - I can't see any reason at all for carrying on with this past June.

GO THE OTHER WAY!

In Ikea, that is.

CursingStone said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

You don't scan for me.

With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incredibly anti-Labour.

There is no way, no way on earth, the Tories can be considered better on this issue than Labour. Just look at their respective records and manifestos since year dot. Even the Blair government who you castigate for free movement. Ok, they allowed that, but they also (against Tory opposition) brought in the minimum wage. You really think the positive impact of this on the low paid didn't dwarf that of free movement? C'mon.

It makes no sense, the way Starmer and Labour can do nothing right for you and Johnson's mob no wrong. There's something else going on. It's bugging me. So tell me please.

IN a number of industries and skills, the minimum wage has simply become the norm. Previously quite a few such trades and jobs were quite well paid.

If you'd talked to a few of the people who moved from trade to trade as their wages continuously fell, you know where alot of support for Brexit came from.

Yes, I'm sure. But the minimum wage was an iconic policy to help the low paid and it came from Labour against Tory opposition. And free movement is gone. So why would somebody whose main voting driver is the material betterment of the low paid be so virulently against the Labour Party now? This is what I'm probing.

The Tories introduced the Living Wage and have continued to increase it annually. The Living Wage under the Tories is in real terms much more than Labour's Minimum Wage.

So why not vote Tory? What big idea have Labour got to change that?

It's a little commented on phenomena that during a pay freeze generally, the ramping up of personal allowances and inflation busting increases in the national living wage saw take home wages from low paid full time workers actually increase quite a lot.

Indeed. While people like Kinabalu just kept banging on about bedroom tax and charities giving food to the needy.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Centre-left vote in Europe

UK
Lowest since 1935

Austria
Lowest since 1911

Germany
Lowest since 1932

France
Lowest ever

Italy
Lowest ever

N'lands
Lowest ever

Sweden
Lowest since 1908

Finland
2nd lowest

Spain
3rd lowest since democracy

Maybe it's not Brexit or Starmer?
5:15 PM · May 10, 2021·Twitter Web App

Some selective figures there.

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Centre-left vote in Europe

UK
Lowest since 1935

Austria
Lowest since 1911

Germany
Lowest since 1932

France
Lowest ever

Italy
Lowest ever

N'lands
Lowest ever

Sweden
Lowest since 1908

Finland
2nd lowest

Spain
3rd lowest since democracy

Maybe it's not Brexit or Starmer?
5:15 PM · May 10, 2021·Twitter Web App

Some selective figures there.

I'm guessing that's a Matt Goodwin tweet.

Alistair said:

I see "Cancel Culture" now includes being caught for doping your race horses now.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/10/bob-baffert-medina-spirit-kentucky-derby-horse-racing-cancel-culture-disqualification

Wither the fearless free speech warriors who will defend this noble horse doper?

He reckons the groom pissed on the hay the horse ate and the cough medicine subsequently showed up in it.

i) Hay is normally hung up
ii) If you take a piss in a horse's stable it's generally onto the straw.
iii) This is an animal worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, you aren't going to piss on it's hay.
iv) The horse wouldn't eat the pissed on hay.
v) Even if the horse did eat the pissed on hay with the groom's cough syrup the amount of steroid coming back through the horses' own piss would be infintesimal.

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

You don't scan for me.

With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incredibly anti-Labour.

There is no way, no way on earth, the Tories can be considered better on this issue than Labour. Just look at their respective records and manifestos since year dot. Even the Blair government who you castigate for free movement. Ok, they allowed that, but they also (against Tory opposition) brought in the minimum wage. You really think the positive impact of this on the low paid didn't dwarf that of free movement? C'mon.

It makes no sense, the way Starmer and Labour can do nothing right for you and Johnson's mob no wrong. There's something else going on. It's bugging me. So tell me please.

IN a number of industries and skills, the minimum wage has simply become the norm. Previously quite a few such trades and jobs were quite well paid.

If you'd talked to a few of the people who moved from trade to trade as their wages continuously fell, you know where alot of support for Brexit came from.

Yes, I'm sure. But the minimum wage was an iconic policy to help the low paid and it came from Labour against Tory opposition. And free movement is gone. So why would somebody whose main voting driver is the material betterment of the low paid be so virulently against the Labour Party now? This is what I'm probing.

The Tories introduced the Living Wage and have continued to increase it annually. The Living Wage under the Tories is in real terms much more than Labour's Minimum Wage.

They've done ok-to-fine on the LW/MW. But look, I don't have the time for a torrid tumble with you right now and that's nothing but a literal fact. Cheers and beers.

No need for a tumble. If you have a reason why the "Working Class" should vote for Labour in 2021 or beyond rather than 1997 maybe try and think of one. Your glowing intellect you self regard ought to be able to come up with something.

If you can't think of anything past 1997 decided by leaders of the past then 2019 issues decided by current leaders is surely more relevant.

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

I don't think that actually. This is bespoke for @isam.

Seems everybody bar him is answering.

I believe it is exactly what you think hence the bafflement with @isam.

An occasional "bafflement with isam" is something you and I have in common tbf. Just that it's not exactly the same thing which does the baffling.

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

That's fine as long as Portugal doesn't also get red listed.

I am surprised nobody has pointed out how stupid it is that Spain is on the red list, but Portugal and Gibraltar aren't, so it is trivial to go on holiday to Spain if you choose to do so.

At the moment Corona cases in Spain are 400% of those in Portugal. May have changed by the time it all happens.

Having said that, they have reopened the border.

But there is a huge difference between UK -> Portugal + drive to Spain, and UK -> Spain.

MattW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

That's fine as long as Portugal doesn't also get red listed.

I am surprised nobody has pointed out how stupid it is that Spain is on the red list, but Portugal and Gibraltar aren't, so it is trivial to go on holiday to Spain if you choose to do so.

At the moment Corona cases in Spain are 400% of those in Portugal. May have changed by the time it all happens.

Having said that, they have reopened the border.

But there is a huge difference between UK -> Portugal + drive to Spain, and UK -> Spain.

Plus if you go UK -> Portugal -> Spain -> Portugal -> UK then you're required to declare you've been to Spain (in the past 14 days?) and quarantine still anyway, aren't you?

MattW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

That's fine as long as Portugal doesn't also get red listed.

I am surprised nobody has pointed out how stupid it is that Spain is on the red list, but Portugal and Gibraltar aren't, so it is trivial to go on holiday to Spain if you choose to do so.

At the moment Corona cases in Spain are 400% of those in Portugal. May have changed by the time it all happens.

Having said that, they have reopened the border.

But there is a huge difference between UK -> Portugal + drive to Spain, and UK -> Spain.

Funnily enough I have done one typical holiday in Spain. We stayed near Huelva but the flights were to/from Faro in Portugal.

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

...

RobD said:

BluestBlue said:

So much for the wallpaper

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

Conservative 45% (+5)
Labour 34% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 May

But, the wallpaper?

Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!

See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.

Your comment is super interesting and indicative of why Lab will find it so difficult to win back lost voters.

You simply cannot comprehend that the Cons are concerned about the poor. You genuinely think that it is only Lab that can care and that the Cons almost by definition don't or can't.

That is the mountain you guys have got to climb. Good luck.

I don't think that actually. This is bespoke for @isam.

Seems everybody bar him is answering.

I believe it is exactly what you think hence the bafflement with @isam.

An occasional "bafflement with isam" is something you and I have in common tbf. Just that it's not exactly the same thing which does the baffling.

Oh god mate just relax. We're far too dumb for your intricate games. I mean if they give you comfort then by all means crack on but it's quite tiring for us and surely must be for you also.

You even edited that four line pithy post.

How about this: you win PB. Does that help?

dixiedean said:

Fishing said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Centre-left vote in Europe

UK
Lowest since 1935

Austria
Lowest since 1911

Germany
Lowest since 1932

France
Lowest ever

Italy
Lowest ever

N'lands
Lowest ever

Sweden
Lowest since 1908

Finland
2nd lowest

Spain
3rd lowest since democracy

Maybe it's not Brexit or Starmer?
5:15 PM · May 10, 2021·Twitter Web App

It's not true that Labour's vote is the lowest since 1935. Its % of the vote was lower in 1983, 1987, 2010 and 2015.

In fact, in 1935, when the Conservatives won a majority of more than 200, Labour won more of the vote (38%) than it did in 2005 (35%) when it won a majority of 60.

Also. France. Before Mitterand there was no centre left to speak of. Just Communists.
And what, then is Macron?

Egomaniac?

But then so was Mitterrand...

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MattW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

That's fine as long as Portugal doesn't also get red listed.

I am surprised nobody has pointed out how stupid it is that Spain is on the red list, but Portugal and Gibraltar aren't, so it is trivial to go on holiday to Spain if you choose to do so.

At the moment Corona cases in Spain are 400% of those in Portugal. May have changed by the time it all happens.

Having said that, they have reopened the border.

But there is a huge difference between UK -> Portugal + drive to Spain, and UK -> Spain.

Plus if you go UK -> Portugal -> Spain -> Portugal -> UK then you're required to declare you've been to Spain (in the past 14 days?) and quarantine still anyway, aren't you?

Aye that'll stop 'em

It won't stop liars.

But most people aren't liars, and it will give a useful reduction in toto.

So I would argue that it is a reasonable pragmatic policy for now.

dixiedean said:

Fishing said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Centre-left vote in Europe

UK
Lowest since 1935

Austria
Lowest since 1911

Germany
Lowest since 1932

France
Lowest ever

Italy
Lowest ever

N'lands
Lowest ever

Sweden
Lowest since 1908

Finland
2nd lowest

Spain
3rd lowest since democracy

Maybe it's not Brexit or Starmer?
5:15 PM · May 10, 2021·Twitter Web App

It's not true that Labour's vote is the lowest since 1935. Its % of the vote was lower in 1983, 1987, 2010 and 2015.

In fact, in 1935, when the Conservatives won a majority of more than 200, Labour won more of the vote (38%) than it did in 2005 (35%) when it won a majority of 60.

Also. France. Before Mitterand there was no centre left to speak of. Just Communists.
And what, then is Macron?

Unpopular.

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

Alistair said:

I see "Cancel Culture" now includes being caught for doping your race horses now.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/10/bob-baffert-medina-spirit-kentucky-derby-horse-racing-cancel-culture-disqualification

Wither the fearless free speech warriors who will defend this noble horse doper?

I’m more concerned about his defence that a groom urinated on the horse’s food…

Charles said:

Alistair said:

I see "Cancel Culture" now includes being caught for doping your race horses now.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/10/bob-baffert-medina-spirit-kentucky-derby-horse-racing-cancel-culture-disqualification

Wither the fearless free speech warriors who will defend this noble horse doper?

I’m more concerned about his defence that a groom urinated on the horse’s food…

Omg, I missed this on first read

Baffert has had at least 30 positive doping tests for his horses, but insisted to Fox that he runs a clean operation.

How is he still operating?

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

Are they centre left

Charles said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MattW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

That's fine as long as Portugal doesn't also get red listed.

I am surprised nobody has pointed out how stupid it is that Spain is on the red list, but Portugal and Gibraltar aren't, so it is trivial to go on holiday to Spain if you choose to do so.

At the moment Corona cases in Spain are 400% of those in Portugal. May have changed by the time it all happens.

Having said that, they have reopened the border.

But there is a huge difference between UK -> Portugal + drive to Spain, and UK -> Spain.

Plus if you go UK -> Portugal -> Spain -> Portugal -> UK then you're required to declare you've been to Spain (in the past 14 days?) and quarantine still anyway, aren't you?

Aye that'll stop 'em

Some people may break the law.

Therefore you want to punish everyone? Collective punishment is banned under the Geneva Convention…

Not at all, I was merely bantering.

To be honest I'm not sure what the purpose of green lists and red lists are now we're verging on vaccine-induced herd immunity. As the Indian variant has shown, it gets in regardless of any voluntary quarantine regime.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

Are they centre left

Well they're certainly not on the right

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales well, the German Greens are currently the highest polling party in Germany

I think PB righties have convinced themselves the German Greens are a centre right party now.

All Greens are watermelons.

Don’t overlook the mangos.