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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Saying you will vote for Ukip at GE2015: The great divider
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Saying you will vote for Ukip at GE2015: The great divider between the generations
There’s one slight caveat. Polling that takes place over long holiday weekends can sometimes produce odd results. With this one YouGov started on Bank Holiday Monday.
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A quarter of Tory voters at the last election now back UKIP. A quarter!! When does the love bombing begin? It can't surely wait too long..?
The UKIP ball keeps rolling....................
FPT
I think 'IT' was one of the scariest books I've ever read. I didn't think the film did it any justice at all and if there's any film producers out there it is definitely one for a remake with all the developments in CGI.
One of the very interesting details is the Tory voting intentions of the 18 - 24 group. Are the younger people beginning to realise that Labour's position is all smoke and mirrors?
Jeez why is it so difficult to understand? @Eek (and many others) had it right. UKIP is the king of NOTA. It _is_ NOTA. Of course if you pin people down you’ll get some kind of answer (guess what? Even then it’s The economy) but it is the hatred, frustration, impotence resulting from a stonking recession (technicalities aside), a rage at the Banksters, Bliars, Broons, Milipedes, Chumocracies, Osbrownes, Gideons, expenses, political classes et al and people are sick of it.
Thing is, that’s politics. There is no divine right for it all to be ok. And raging at the moon ain’t going to put it right. Nor, I’m afraid, is voting for UKIP. Or The Greens. Or Labour. Ahem.
And D Cameron is right to have made that quote, crass as it was, and not apologised for it because he is putting distance, despite the best efforts of his back benchers, between him and UKIP. Which is vital.
Because eventually, when the economy gets better, and people individually feel better (hence employment is a key factor) we will revert to the status quo ante and UKIP will become one more “sign of the times” that these currently crazy years threw up.
@JohnLoony got a retweet from Tom Daley IIRC or at least a reply to his birthday wishes...
I wonder if this is because older people are naturally more conservative, and younger people are acutely aware that they're the ones (largely) who'll be paying back the debt and working until (probably) their early to mid-70s.
YouGov
Age Groups: 18-24; 25-39; 40-59; 60+
Would not vote: 13%; 14%; 6%; 5%
Vote UKIP: 10%; 6%; 15%; 28%
Social Grade: ABC1; C2DE
Vote UKIP: 13%; 21%
The certainty to vote must skew the end result - but is this certainty likely to change?
you are making my point for me. I agree that it is vital to have pressure groups to ensure that issues remain on the agenda. They define to a greater or lesser extent the narrative. They don't change the landscape.
The Greens are an extreme manifestation of, um, green intent but they are a million miles from govt. UKIP are an extreme manifestation of NOTA and ok maybe some incoherent set of right-wing policies which is having an influence on our parties. But they are (and will be) a million miles from govt.
Before the last election, when Alistair Darling was warning of cuts worse than Thatcher, considered opinion was that it would be a good election to lose. Whoever won would make themselves so unpopular they would be out of power for a generation ...
Now that the Government is really unpopular, it's because the PM went to Eton? Hmmm
The rise and rise of UKIP is so much like the Cleggasm. Clegg was popular for saying things the others couldn't. Then he made it into Government and realised why no serious party of Government could say the things he had been saying.
UKIP are the same. They are popular for saying things that no serious party of Government can say. At some point, maybe after they win lots of seats or gift a GE to Labour, the rhetoric and reality will clash in an annihilation scale event, but until then the Tories can't out-kipper them. You can't be a serious party of Government and UKIP at the same time, just as Clegg found out you can't be all things to all voters if you win power.
When Mr Cameron loses the faith of people like me - he needs to pay a lot of attention. I'm a 5* potential voter who is currently sitting on their hands and being wooed by Kippers FFS. It's insane that its got this far. No wonder so many like me aren't playing ball.
I've no interest in Class War, who his friends are, where he eats his tea, if he rides horses with the Aga Khan or if his kids get chocolate oranges for Christmas - its the policies he champions and frankly I think he's wrong more often than he's right.
those pesky voters, eh?
Issues come and go, gain and lose favour. Political parties have both to lead and follow public opinion but it's not an easy road to travel. Hence they are endlessly criticised for doing or not doing this or that.
Pressure groups such as the Greens, UKIP, Countryside Alliance, SWP, Stop the War and the Unions for that matter, absolutely influence politics. For all parties.
If they are influencing my party's politics then just look at the reaction they are provoking in others'.
But it is a side issue. My point was that UKIP are not going to come within a mile of political power in the formal sense. They will of course be able to channel public dissatisfaction which in turn will dissipate as the economy recovers.
The question which has dogged him most of has political career " what does David Cameron stand for" still remains unanswered. His only advantage is that Miliband is just as bad, a blank piece of paper. One talks of a Big Society, the other of Predistribution and the electorate collectively scratch their heads and ask WTF is that all about ? And then they start to look for people who speak english.
It really is a retrograde step to have a function removed because one or two posters abused it.
Reading threads that are now done is a trifle pointless if you can't have any input to them at all - or see what chimed at the time. I've certainly stopped wading through them since I can't even Like a joke.
Come on @PBModerators - let's have them back. 90%+ of us found them useful.
For a start, Labour may well still win majority. That's probably the likeliest result. If they do, there's no way they'd ditch FPTP. Secondly, if the result is hung but with Labour as clearly the biggest party I suspect they might prefer a second election. That would squeeze the Lib Dems as voters split red and blue and probably see Labour finish over the line.
In addition, they couldn't axe FPTP without a referendum. AV is obviously off the table. I'd hope that some godawful PR system would also fail, although it might not.
Are you offering odds?
On topic, the fundamental political divide is between those who are willing to believe that politicians can indulge their own fantasies as to how the country should be organised without having to make any difficult decisions and those who recognise that the country is up shit creek, will be so for a long time and who accept that we're just going to have to be prepared for years of crapness. This political divide transcends parties, but the UKIP support is derived exclusively from the fantasists.
Secondly, I agree that Cameron has bobbed like a cork on a wave since he came to power. He came in reversing policies and has reversed policies since.
But the broad thrust of the Cons is superior to all other options. You only have to see that with the WatO EdM fiasco.
And as for FPTP, forever in coalition, and a change in voting system, we Brits are just not up for it. Sorry.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Wings-Weird-Wonderful-Consign-Captain/dp/1902109163/ref=
Testing German aircraft - often without notes or servicing records.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Wings-Luftwaffe-Flying-Aircraft-Consign/dp/1902109155/ref=pd_sim_b_1
Mr Dancer - have now finally registered with Smashwords (they don't make it easy). Can you post the link (and the discount code 'cos I'm a cheapskate) again please... ;-)
Indeed - though I do get the Big Society aka volunteering and never understood why it was so alien to many on the Left and derided by the MSM who often are *so sophisticated* that they can't see the wood for the trees - and sneer at things instead.
Predistribution never made any sense to me at all either as a term or what it was meant to be - it was one of those weird Marxist verbs.
More plain-speaking a la Farage would help a lot. When he's challenged about non-PC things, he tends to be normal - though I felt he slipped over the lapdancing thingy. I'd have responded "So What? Do you think its important? I don't."
If someone speaks their mind enough - its becomes 'John/Boris/Ken et al' being themselves and are insulated from the media nit-picking.
In the YouGov poll of April 25/26 (http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lhnabrjag7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260413.pdf) NF was the only party leader to have net positive ratings.
But the question asked was "Do you think that Nigel Farage is doing well or badly as leader of the UK Independence Party", which is a very different question to that of leading the UK.
However, when asked, "Do you think each of the following would make a better or worse Prime Minister than David
Cameron?", only 11% thought NF would be better and 40% thought he would be worse (19% said neither and 30% were DK). Only 58% of the UKIPers thought he would be better.
So far, I have not been able to find a poll about that quality - leadership - which has been a strong topic recently - for any present or potential PM. Can any PBer point me in the right direction?
Code is XK87G. Hope you enjoy reading it
Edited extra bit: it's been a while since I registered, and there are certain advantages to it. For a start, the large variety of formats is nice. In addition, sometimes books are free in the US (on Amazon) but not in the UK. When authors do that the books are usually free on Smashwords as well.
(He had tweeted a photo of his car which looked as though its windscreen had been damaged by a falling tree, or vandalised, or whatever, and I asked him what had happened to it. He replied that his friends had covered his car in clingfilm while he was in diving practice!)
I am also being followed by Matthew Mitcham (the gay Australian 2008 Olympic gold-medallist in 10 metre diving) who tweeted a photo of the fan-letter I wrote to him, and Jake Foushee (an American voice-actor) from whom I have received a number of replies or re-tweets.
I also received a reply from the actor Alex Pettyfer (who is currently the 2nd most gorgeous man in the world) when he did a question-and-answer session on Twitter. My question was "hippopotamus or armadillo?" and his answer was "hippopotamus".
The party list for the Euros was introduced without one as were the non-FPTP voting systems in Scotland.
Also the supplementary vote system, used in English mayoral and police commssioner elections was introduced without a referendum.
People under 60 must make sure they use their vote, otherwise the 60 & overs may well decide the future of the UK, when it is not in the interests of the whole country. For far too long Labour and Tories have been buying elections, by bribing pensioners with state benefits. They know these are the most likely to vote and we see the biding war between these parties near an election. Remember in 2010, when Labour said the Tories were going to cut some benefits and Cameron reacted with absolute fury, guaranteeing that the Tories would keep them.
Mr. Smithson, that's not a very democratic perspective, is it?
For a start, there's a difference between changing an old system to install a new one and introducing a system for a brand new elected body. In addition, the euro elections do not determine who governs Britain. Last, but not least, the need for a referendum to change FPTP now has a handy precedent.
Power is delegated from the people to Parliament. The people should have the ultimate authority over the 'rules of the game' - anything else is up to Parliament.
Permanent and (effectively) irreversible transfers of sovereignty, changing the structure and constitution of either of the two houses or the voting system all fall into the camp that need the blessing of the people. Populist stuff (capital punishment comes to mind) is the exclusive purview of our elected representatives.
If the rise in UKIP is down to the leaders of other parties chasing irrelevant policies, talking about themselves instead of 'real people', ignoring the voters and turning people against politics and politicians, there is no better single example of all of that than electoral reform, especially in a Parliament immediately after a referendum that nobody wanted and was soundly defeated.
I don't think even Ed is dumb enough to go for it, although Nick would probably be up for it.
Now where have I heard that before?
We are an aging population, and people are, naturally going to vote for the things they feel are important, and which effect them. As this continues, should we not expect things to be affected more and more by the grey vote. Given they're more likely to vote in the first place, and there's a ever increasing number of them..
If so expect the political 'centre ground' to move more and more in UKIPs and the Tories favour.
Does anyone have a combined UKIP/tory vote share graph? That would be very interesting...
We had a ref - it was soundly defeated. Get over it. The electorate told you they didn't want it. You may want it for narrow self-interest, that's another matter entirely.
That Kippers are temporarily polling quite highly is neither here nor there - PR advocates rang screaming from the room when it was the BNP who were winning seats using that system...
Or is it retire as from this moment?
Pelligrini > Chelsea
Moyse = stay
nailed on.
I wonder why... does age tend towards a dislike of previous experience/emotions?
Precisely the point
We all suffer from the Nostalgia Factor where the Good Was Great and the Bad Was Awful - but the wisdom of crowds does seem to tell us that older voters tend to be more conservative in outlook.
While Parliament is Sovereign different standards apply to rules for Westminster
The benefit of PR (particularly in local government) would also be that it would guard against the BNP suddenly winning a whole council - which was a conceivable outcome in places like Barking & Dagenham not so long ago.
A better example is probably Abu Qatada. Why is he not on a plane? Cameron could probably win the election outright by putting him on a plane, but he hasn't, because he is leading a serious party of Government. Labour didn't do it either for the same reason. Nigel Farage can talk about it all he wants and court popularity. Keeping him here is unpopular, and the Government is doing it.
Try sneering less and thinking more
BTW Opening of Parliament BBC1 10.30 is hosted by your own, your very own Huw.
It's the same as hating Hitler, but never mentioning Stalin.
@BBCNormanS: Ed Miliband says Labour will "look at" Govt proposals to curb benefit tourism but does not commit to support or oppose them
I mean really - are the BBC a cable channel with ONE anchor host? It does seem like it.
But as for GE2015, I would only do so if I could be sure that Labour don't win here, Ilford North. Since it's quite a marginal (Con/Lab), I can reassure TSE that my loyalties to the blue team will endure!
A childhood now lost!
:seeks-comfort-from-another-Airfix-model:
@WillHillBet: Further to Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement, we're going 4/1 for both Jose Mourinho and Ronaldo to join Man Utd http://tinyurl.com/bpksuds
Those who lose never like a system where others won ;^ )