Boris should start Scottish independence negotiations now – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Alan Beith managed 40 years of sitting on his arse in Berwick by getting the bins emptied, and not much else.FrancisUrquhart said:
What you mean banging on about twinning with Palestine rather than the bins doesn't get the blood flowing for many voters....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Meanwhile, in the constituency I work in - the Tories have built a new multi million pound sports facility, work has started on a new hospital and plans are in for school rebuilds. No wonder the Tories took Northumberland County Council.rottenborough said:Owen Jones Rose
@OwenJones84
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1h
Labour figures are now saying that “tackling injustice and inequality” is the party’s mission. But that’s an abstraction to most voters: you need to talk about concrete things that matter to people’s lives - like housing, jobs, pay, services - and what you’ll do about them
Blimey, Jones has said something that is a correct analysis.
Labour should ban the words 'social justice', 'injustice', 'inequality' etc. from use by the party.
I doubt many voters have a clue what the party means by them, but many will have a suspicion it involves loads of bonkers pc stuff and/or giving free money to people they think are undeserving.
People want tangible stuff, not vague notions.0 -
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.3 -
I expect him to do nothing. His angry interview yesterday said he'd do everything it takes - which is bin off the lunatics. Yes the split would be acrimonious but it feels inevitable that its coming so better to do it on his terms than theirs.WhisperingOracle said:
This can't work, because it will just result in an acrimonious split, which would then harm a PR coalition. Labour's only realistic options are a consensual centre-left program, or a semi-detached coalition agreement implementing PR, I would say.RochdalePioneers said:
Owen is right about Starmer. Its just that "so go back to Corbynism" isn't the answer.DavidL said:
A genuine and articulate shriek of rage.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Quite amusing really.
Iain Duncan Starmer says he will turn up the volume and act. Do so! Purge the lunatics and the unions or accept the show is over.
He won't. It's over.
I look forward to the Labour "Here to Hear" roadshow.
As for splitting the PR coalition the response should be the same as Milliband's should have been to Sturgeon. Challenge the 20ish Momentum MPs to vote against the progressive coalition and with the Tories.0 -
7000 new covid cases in Japan....0
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His cunning tactic of voting for May's deal was a masterstroke.HarryFreeman said:
Boris didn't see off May ?Scott_xP said:
That is not true.DavidL said:One thing that Boris does not lack is confidence.
He may be a flat track bully, but he ran away from
- challenging May
- Andrew Neil
- journalists in general (see fridge: hiding in...)
That's a view.
The other two are of no interest to the voters of Hartlepool.0 -
"You have been banned/suspended for etc, etc" - Might be a good idea.AnneJGP said:
Does the banned person not receive an explanation? I agree it's up to the host to decide who posts & who doesn't, but if I unintentionally transgressed I'd like to think I'd be told why, as the only way to avoid making the same mistake in future.Casino_Royale said:
I'd recommend magnanimity, though. Ultimately, it's Mike's site so I wouldn't criticise the administrators of the site too much, particularly in public, regardless of how unfair one thinks it is.isam said:
Thanks Philip. That makes two of us on both points!Philip_Thompson said:
Good to see you back isam! I had no idea why you were banned, but very glad to see you're back.isam said:
Is that what other people have to do to get banned?!RochdalePioneers said:
Can I make the case for @TheJezziah having his ban hammer removed? Yes he called me a nazi for calling out his anti-semitism, but he is funny...Stocky said:Pleased to see that @isam 's ban has been lifted
But actually, the repeated banning for no discernible reason, and the lack of explanation as to why it happens time and time again, makes me feel like one of my heroes, Cool Hand Luke - constantly fighting against the nasty bosses, so it's not all bad
Of course we have one of the great legal minds of our times monitoring the board.
Though sadly TSE's been AWOL re: potential litigation of global (or at least continental) significance, namely the matter of West West Virginia . . .0 -
Too much vinegar on your cornflakes today?kinabalu said:
That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.felix said:
Sadly for Labour proving only too true......kinabalu said:
These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?felix said:
And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.Sean_F said:In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.
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I'm not saying Starmer WILL turn things around - perhaps he is a dud - I'm saying he has a year to start doing so and he might. There's some evidence he can't cut it, that's undeniable, but it's not enough for a verdict. As you say, let's see how it goes post pandemic, eg on the tax & spend front. We've lost 2 years of growth, unemployment is back, inequalities are deepening, and the public finances are fucked. So there's a lot to like.ping said:
I hope you’re right.kinabalu said:
It's not that. There are alternatives. Plus you don't know if someone will be good as leader until they are the leader.ydoethur said:
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.isam said:If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
The reason not to junk Starmer is because he hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can do in a scenario where Covid is not blotting out normal politics.
This starts now. Keir has a Yeir.
But I think he’s a dud, unfortunately. Not sure labour have anyone better, tho.
A lot depends on what the tories do. Are they going to revert to fiscal conservatism? That would help Kier out of his mess.
I suspect they’re gonna kick paying the bills past the next election - In which case, I don’t think labour gets a look in.0 -
Maybe PBers could have our own Court of Appeals like Face Book?
I nominate Jack W.1 -
Its still a "no" though...Philip_Thompson said:
More than I could picture Starmer as one, yes.RochdalePioneers said:
Can you see Jess Phillips as PM? Thought not...Brom said:
I don’t think it takes much to shift that market, but you can definitely imagine her throwing her hat in the ring if they lose Batley & Spen. She’s a slightly more electable version of Angela Rayner I suppose. Gobbier but with added brains.rottenborough said:Just noticed that Jess Philips is fav on BF for next lab leader at 4.1
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My main criticism of Johnson is that if Brexit was so obviously the right thing to do, why did he go into hiding for a month after the referendum result came out? His lack of cojones directly led to the May years.david_herdson said:
Agreeing a referendum when the SNP are relatively weak and have an underwhelming mandate is a much better idea from a unionist viewpoint than agreeing one when they're in a hegimonic ascendency.FrankBooth said:I like a lot of David Herdson's pieces but I have to admit I completely disagree on this. Referendums on national independence ought to be understood as a once in a generation idea. After all they are not things that can be easily undone. There was a referendum on Scottish independence less than seven years ago so why would it be sensible to have another one now? Brexit? Well yes a clear majority in Scotland voted to remain in the EU but still I would be looking for an overwhelming mandate to even countenance another vote on cessation at this stage. It's pretty obvious that the Scottish result has not provided that. As Neil Oliver said Scotland is split down the middle. Those who believe the SNP have a mandate should follow the logic of that. It means that you can have a referendum every time there is a pro independence majority in Holyrood. Just keep holding referendums until you get the right result. We ought to have more respect for the union and in fact more respect for Scotland. I feel very sorry for those like my brother who live in Scotland and have to deal with this rather than the bread and butter issues that ought to be debated. When will people start questioning the SNP’s patriotism? Yes, I’m serious. If you really care about Scotland why would you want to hold another inevitably divisive referendum just a few years after another very divisive referendum. How concerned are these fanatics with the wellbeing of Scotland’s economy and civic society?
Mentioning Harold Wilson is rather apt. A supposedly cunning political operator it was of course Wilson who brought the referendum into British politics. Not for any high minded reason but in order to resolve a problem within his own party. For all the abuse hurled at David Cameron he was following a precedent already set. He also didn’t realise that many people had seen the same trick pulled before and wouldn’t be persuaded.
I agree that the thorny choices faced by an independent Scotland should be set out clearly in advance but seems absurd when the current prime minister was front and centre of the shallow Brexit campaign. Is he going to do a mea culpa over the lack of detail presented to people in 2016. How can a government that has denied the need for a border between the UK and Ireland start stressing the need for customs checks on the Tweed? Be careful about stoking allegations of bullying and project fear. As I’ve repeatedly said the UK government’s approach to the post-Brexit relationship with the EU has undermined the union between England and Scotland.
If the Union side (Remain/No, say), won a more convincing victory than in 2014, that would likely put the issue to bed for a generation. There does seem to be an acceptance that Brexit has changed things but that actually offers those opposed to a neverendum a good argument: there is unlikely to be any similar level of constitutional change that would merit such a quick revisiting of the question. And as Brexit proved, support for the idea, even with many firmly in each camp, still drifted by as much as 10%.
In respect of Wilson, his EEC referendum pretty much ended debate on the issue for 30+ years. Yes, Labour was committed to withdrawal in 1983 (though not 1979), but Labour was also unelectable at the time and going against the referendum was just another sign of that. True, that was based on a 2:1 outcome which is highly unlikely in Scotland but I wouldn't be surprised if, on a level field and with the genuine consequences of independence in front of them, the unionists couldn't outperform the 55% from last time.
As for Johnson, his argument would be 1. you learn lessons from experiences and use them to do it better next time, and 2. ultimately, the UK did have to have a vote on the deal, via the 2019 general election.1 -
Congratulations to Drakeford on a stunning result -- perhaps not quite so many congratulations to Wales, though.
The main take-home seems to be pandemics & lockdowns are just great for Governing parties.
Now the advantages are clear, perhaps we'll be having them more regularly in future 3 -
Speaking of bins, how's the Captain doing in the Big Smoke?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Alan Beith managed 40 years of sitting on his arse in Berwick by getting the bins emptied, and not much else.FrancisUrquhart said:
What you mean banging on about twinning with Palestine rather than the bins doesn't get the blood flowing for many voters....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Meanwhile, in the constituency I work in - the Tories have built a new multi million pound sports facility, work has started on a new hospital and plans are in for school rebuilds. No wonder the Tories took Northumberland County Council.rottenborough said:Owen Jones Rose
@OwenJones84
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1h
Labour figures are now saying that “tackling injustice and inequality” is the party’s mission. But that’s an abstraction to most voters: you need to talk about concrete things that matter to people’s lives - like housing, jobs, pay, services - and what you’ll do about them
Blimey, Jones has said something that is a correct analysis.
Labour should ban the words 'social justice', 'injustice', 'inequality' etc. from use by the party.
I doubt many voters have a clue what the party means by them, but many will have a suspicion it involves loads of bonkers pc stuff and/or giving free money to people they think are undeserving.
People want tangible stuff, not vague notions.0 -
Talk on the Beeb that Andy Street may win WM on 1st pref. Meanwhile in london so far swing to the tories ranging from 1-3.5%. Clearly Bailey won't win but with Labour down by more than the Tories in Scotland and even in Wales popular vote both Lab and Con up by 5% there's really not a lot of good cheer for Starmer today....so far.0
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I think if things look as bleak for Labour this time next year he will resign. He'll have no choice.Stocky said:
What happens after a year should things not improve and he doesn't resign? The LP is not good as dispensing with its leaders.kinabalu said:
It's not that. There are alternatives. Plus you don't know if someone will be good as leader until they are the leader.ydoethur said:
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.isam said:If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
The reason not to junk Starmer is because he hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can do in a scenario where Covid is not blotting out normal politics.
This starts now. Keir has a Yeir.1 -
1. We haven't counted the votes yet. How do you know what the biggest vote is?HYUFD said:
Wrong, Unionist parties have won most votes in Scotland at this election, most Scots do not want indyref2 now. Spain ignored the Catalan nationalist government without even one independence referendum and it remains in Spain 4 years later.RochdalePioneers said:Question - is crafty cockney a HYUFD sock puppet as with Sean / eadric / Leon? They make the same tone-deaf "argument" in the same stupid way.
When - not if - a majority of pro-independence MSPs are declared later today, the expressed will of the people will be clear and unambiguous. I have no doubt the Tories will try and ignore it, and thus will absolutely seal the reality of Scottish independence further down the line.
Johnson's Blue Labour party are English Nationalists. The sooner they openly accept this the better.
I know you hate Brexit and are desperate for Scottish independence to punish Leavers (though it would make the rUK even more Leave) but it is not happening
2. Who gives a rat fuck about your endless comparisons to somewhere else?
3. I do not want independence
Apart from that you're spot on luv.0 -
You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..kinabalu said:
That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.felix said:
Sadly for Labour proving only too true......kinabalu said:
These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?felix said:
And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.Sean_F said:In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.
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In fairness to Mr Johnson, that's also true for many Tory MPs AIUI (and of other parties too, but they're not so immediately germane).MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
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BBC Scotland election coverage is fun. They have a "Blockbusters"-style map of hexagonal shapes.1
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He bottled the aftermath of the referendum to the extent that his main supporters lost all confidence in him.HarryFreeman said:
Boris didn't see off May ?Scott_xP said:
That is not true.DavidL said:One thing that Boris does not lack is confidence.
He may be a flat track bully, but he ran away from
- challenging May
- Andrew Neil
- journalists in general (see fridge: hiding in...)
That's a view.
The other two are of no interest to the voters of Hartlepool.0 -
The Skye Boat Song - Ella RobertsAlistair said:
Over the Solway Firth.Casino_Royale said:I love this: https://www.gov.scot/policies/international-relations/
"We also have a network of eight offices worldwide who work to promote Scottish interests overseas and strenthen (sic) our relationships with countries and continents. These offices are located in:"
Beijing
Berlin
Brussels
Dublin
London
Ottawa
Paris
Washington DC
London. "Overseas".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBSqQPP4aVM
Not Solway Firth, but you get the idea.
AND a great excuse to post a great song sung by a great singer.0 -
Bloody hell. Never saw that coming. There are some very large swings there. Even my own ward, which was 55% Labour last time, has gone down. Losing all nine seats is a bit of a horror show.rottenborough said:More Labour slaughter. This time Cannock.
Not looking good on the County Council either. Two losses for Labour so far, Burntwood North and Keele, while the three Cannock wards (which have yet to declare) will surely be going blue as well on these figures.0 -
ZippoMaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
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Corbyn was in a far bleaker situation in 2016-17 and didn’t resign.kinabalu said:
I think if things look as bleak for Labour this time next year he will resign. He'll have no choice.Stocky said:
What happens after a year should things not improve and he doesn't resign? The LP is not good as dispensing with its leaders.kinabalu said:
It's not that. There are alternatives. Plus you don't know if someone will be good as leader until they are the leader.ydoethur said:
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.isam said:If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
The reason not to junk Starmer is because he hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can do in a scenario where Covid is not blotting out normal politics.
This starts now. Keir has a Yeir.
And, to Labour’s later great misfortune, staged at least a partial recovery.0 -
Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.2
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Cameron rented his place out.MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
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Nothing trivial about that! Especially when you start to rank them and look at cross correlations. It's a PhD.noneoftheabove said:
It is indeed trivial to identify Labours problems, although it would be hard to single it down to a problem. My rough order would be:kinabalu said:
It's not a trivial exercise to identify the problem. You have to do this first in order to propose a solution. If you do it the other way around you risk wasting a lot of time. Jones argues that Labour's problem is lack of a vision that's both clear and radically different to the Conservatives. His solution is to develop that vision and he views the GE17 manifesto and campaign as something to draw upon. I'm not a total buyer of this - I think the 17 offering was old fashioned and the result somewhat flattered it due to tactical voting by Remainers - but it's a perspective that adds value and needs to be seriously considered.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It certainly adds more value than the noddy, jaundiced notion that Jeremy Corbyn is the source of all Labour's ills and the solution is to eliminate his toxic legacy by embracing the flag and eschewing radicalism or anything which smacks of looking too socialist, chasing memories of Tony Blair and 1997. I do think there is much to learn from the New Labour project, but it's in the areas of style and focus and organization, rather than policy substance and political positioning. Blair was Mr 90s and that was a different world.
Demographics against them
FPTP against them
Divided
Lack of clear message
Corbyn legacy
Leadership lacking quality in both leader and cabinet
City vs town
Devolution settlements
Boundaries against them
Depressing list but a pretty good one imo. I'd throw in the media. Although maybe not, since we can't do much about that.0 -
Hardly on a scale of Trump and his hotels billing his Secret Service detail, or charging visiting foreign dignitaries.Carnyx said:
In fairness to Mr Johnson, that's also true for many Tory MPs AIUI (and of other parties too, but they're not so immediately germane).MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
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Don’t scrap the 91s just yet!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/08/uk-high-speed-trains-cancelled-after-cracks-found-in-carriages1 -
The Midlands seem to have really turned against Labour.ydoethur said:
Bloody hell. Never saw that coming. There are some very large swings there. Even my own ward, which was 55% Labour last time, has gone down. Losing all nine seats is a bit of a horror show.rottenborough said:More Labour slaughter. This time Cannock.
Not looking good on the County Council either. Two losses for Labour so far, Burntwood North and Keele, while the three Cannock wards (which have yet to declare) will surely be going blue as well on these figures.
As the region is packed full of marginals this looks extremely bad for Starmer.1 -
At 12:26 the vote share / change in the constituency seats counted is:
SNP 47% +1%
Con 22% -0.3%
Lab 22% -0.9%
LD 8% -0.9%
Green 0.8% +0.4%
Remember that people vote even more tactically on the list than constituencies, so a doubling of the Green vote (from a small base) would be very good for them on the list if they accelerate this as forecast.0 -
Dave wasn't reliant on the income from that property rental to pay for his wife's expensive tastes and 6 kids worth of child support.FrancisUrquhart said:
Cameron rented his place out.MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
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You have to be kidding the entire labour cabinet became millionaires on acquiring and renting out london property. A conflict of interest would need to show that he was disproportionately impacted by any proposals. unlikely. Like saying that if the chancellor is a big fan of whisky he shouldnt be able to change the duty on it.MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
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Not many in Staffordshire though.rottenborough said:
The Midlands seem to have really turned against Labour.ydoethur said:
Bloody hell. Never saw that coming. There are some very large swings there. Even my own ward, which was 55% Labour last time, has gone down. Losing all nine seats is a bit of a horror show.rottenborough said:More Labour slaughter. This time Cannock.
Not looking good on the County Council either. Two losses for Labour so far, Burntwood North and Keele, while the three Cannock wards (which have yet to declare) will surely be going blue as well on these figures.
As the region is packed full of marginals this looks extremely bad for Starmer.
Which in a sense is the problem, given in 1997 I think only three seats were not Labour and now they don’t hold a single one.1 -
Patience. You'll find out in a yeir.isam said:
But what IS his big Ideir?kinabalu said:
It's not that. There are alternatives. Plus you don't know if someone will be good as leader until they are the leader.ydoethur said:
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.isam said:If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
The reason not to junk Starmer is because he hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can do in a scenario where Covid is not blotting out normal politics.
This starts now. Keir has a Yeir. 2 -
And yet the IOC insist the Olympics will carry on as planned. At which point does reality kick in that Covid isn't done but the idea of 2021 as being ok for leisure travel and global sports IS done?FrancisUrquhart said:7000 new covid cases in Japan....
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No. Changes to capital taxation (for instance) would massively trump (sorry) such chicken feed revenue.TimT said:
Hardly on a scale of Trump and his hotels billing his Secret Service detail, or charging visiting foreign dignitaries.Carnyx said:
In fairness to Mr Johnson, that's also true for many Tory MPs AIUI (and of other parties too, but they're not so immediately germane).MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
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Has Covid helped incumbents in general ?YBarddCwsc said:
Congratulations to Drakeford on a stunning result -- perhaps not quite so many congratulations to Wales, though.
The main take-home seems to be pandemics & lockdowns are just great for Governing parties.
Now the advantages are clear, perhaps we'll be having them more regularly in future
Once the voters have other stuff to worry about we may see more change in the future ?0 -
But he would be disproportionately effected by more taxes on income from property. We know his personal financial situation is poor so if renting out his London house is the way out of that he's hardly going to approve any policy measures which hit that income.CursingStone said:
You have to be kidding the entire labour cabinet became millionaires on acquiring and renting out london property. A conflict of interest would need to show that he was disproportionately impacted by any proposals. unlikely. Like saying that if the chancellor is a big fan of whisky he shouldnt be able to change the duty on it.MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
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Which puts into perspective Trumpsky's achievement in losing, not just his own re-election but the US Senate.YBarddCwsc said:
Congratulations to Drakeford on a stunning result -- perhaps not quite so many congratulations to Wales, though.
The main take-home seems to be pandemics & lockdowns are just great for Governing parties.
Now the advantages are clear, perhaps we'll be having them more regularly in future
He had to work overtime achieving THAT own goal.0 -
He is a left wing loon.. does he include free everything for everyone?rottenborough said:Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.
...0 -
Yes. Also, in effect, I think a lot of people almost think of the likes of Starmer as having been the Government in 17-19 because of the power Parliament had and what was done. That Parliament was extremely unpopular and in essence Boris is the change candidate that overthrew it, and since then hasn’t been in power long. That gets him the “give him a chance to do something” benefit of the doubt and he’s also been immensely lucky in that all Covid errors are now forgiven because vaccines. Next week he gets to shape the agenda with a Queen’s Speech, and because of increases to growth forecasts, the spending review will now have more cash to throw around.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leavenoneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
He’s lucky.
0 -
Wife's tastes? As well as Ms Symonds?MaxPB said:
Dave wasn't reliant on the income from that property rental to pay for his wife's expensive tastes and 6 kids worth of child support.FrancisUrquhart said:
Cameron rented his place out.MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
0 -
Rhyming is ok - and good fun - but not in a partisan sneery way.MrEd said:
If we are going to start rhyming slogans, it's time to get rid of Dreary Keir-ykinabalu said:
It's not that. There are alternatives. Plus you don't know if someone will be good as leader until they are the leader.ydoethur said:
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.isam said:If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
The reason not to junk Starmer is because he hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can do in a scenario where Covid is not blotting out normal politics.
This starts now. Keir has a Yeir.0 -
Aberdeenshire South & Kincardine: SNP hold0
-
You may be over-estimating how much actual capital Trumpsky has to tax!Carnyx said:
No. Changes to capital taxation (for instance) would massively trump (sorry) such chicken feed revenue.TimT said:
Hardly on a scale of Trump and his hotels billing his Secret Service detail, or charging visiting foreign dignitaries.Carnyx said:
In fairness to Mr Johnson, that's also true for many Tory MPs AIUI (and of other parties too, but they're not so immediately germane).MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
Though maybe I'm missing your point? Or you are missing TimT's?0 -
Here's the thing though.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.
I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.1 -
I thought they were one of the poster childs of disease control?FrancisUrquhart said:7000 new covid cases in Japan....
1 -
AFTER the dust has settled, can we please return to TRULY important matters?
Such as the Heligoland Question!0 -
How did you hack Carnyx’s account, Justin?Carnyx said:
Wife's tastes? As well as Ms Symonds?MaxPB said:
Dave wasn't reliant on the income from that property rental to pay for his wife's expensive tastes and 6 kids worth of child support.FrancisUrquhart said:
Cameron rented his place out.MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
1 -
"I'm really pleased that, whatever outcome the next Prime Minister puts before us, whether that's a deal of some sort or no deal, we've agreed that it must be subject to another referendum, and in that referendum Remain must be an option, and Labour will be campaigning for Remain.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
That's a really important point of principle" - Sir Keir Starmer 2019
That's why he will never be PM - nearly two thirds of constituencies voted Leave1 -
Does that really work when the Govt are already doing it? Biden is doing it in the teeth of uncompromising opposition from the Republicans.rottenborough said:Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.
0 -
What have I said wrong?ydoethur said:
How did you hack Carnyx’s account, Justin?Carnyx said:
Wife's tastes? As well as Ms Symonds?MaxPB said:
Dave wasn't reliant on the income from that property rental to pay for his wife's expensive tastes and 6 kids worth of child support.FrancisUrquhart said:
Cameron rented his place out.MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
Edit: should have said "Ms Symonds's." Apologies.1 -
To some extent (as a global story) but not here.IshmaelZ said:
Covid will be blotting out normal politics this time next year.kinabalu said:
It's not that. There are alternatives. Plus you don't know if someone will be good as leader until they are the leader.ydoethur said:
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.isam said:If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
The reason not to junk Starmer is because he hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can do in a scenario where Covid is not blotting out normal politics.
This starts now. Keir has a Yeir.
Plus, soon as it's only people in the third world suffering we'll lose interest.0 -
Whoops! Must be a serious issue to immediately have to take them all out of service for inspection, hope they don’t find many sets with issues.tlg86 said:Don’t scrap the 91s just yet!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/08/uk-high-speed-trains-cancelled-after-cracks-found-in-carriages0 -
Nah....South Korea is the only country now who has managed this without going full metal isolation / lockdown with 2 cases and they still bump along with a few 100 cases a day.Floater said:
I thought they were one of the poster childs of disease control?FrancisUrquhart said:7000 new covid cases in Japan....
0 -
Yes and no.YBarddCwsc said:
Congratulations to Drakeford on a stunning result -- perhaps not quite so many congratulations to Wales, though.
The main take-home seems to be pandemics & lockdowns are just great for Governing parties.
Now the advantages are clear, perhaps we'll be having them more regularly in future
The bills for this largesse have yet to come, but they will, in terms of higher taxes, faster inflation, and maybe higher structural unemployment.
Look at the tory result in Surrey, one of the areas set to get hit for six by Johnson's inevitable tax increases over the winter.
Not good, Not good at all.
Essex? Kent? meh. Its not all good news.
0 -
i see the bloodbath for Labour continues apace
Tories plus 17 in Rotherham
Cannock Chase gained by tories
4 -
Uncle Joe a left wing loon? Will be thrilled to pass this along to Bernie & AOC!squareroot2 said:
He is a left wing loon.. does he include free everything for everyone?rottenborough said:Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.
...
1 -
It's a key part of the government's optimistic pitch to the former Labour heartlands. Starmer needs to advertise what Labour would also do on that front too, in a distinctive and immediately compelling way, amongst other things.alex_ said:
Does that really work when the Govt are already doing it? Biden is doing it in the teeth of uncompromising opposition from the Republicans.rottenborough said:Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.
0 -
Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.Stuartinromford said:
Here's the thing though.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.
I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.0 -
43% = powerful new mandate to get Brexit doneRochdalePioneers said:At 12:26 the vote share / change in the constituency seats counted is:
SNP 47% +1%
Con 22% -0.3%
Lab 22% -0.9%
LD 8% -0.9%
Green 0.8% +0.4%
Remember that people vote even more tactically on the list than constituencies, so a doubling of the Green vote (from a small base) would be very good for them on the list if they accelerate this as forecast.
47% = now is not the time2 -
In Norfolk, that leads to problems working out which is the ring finger....SandyRentool said:Totally off topic: The joys of extended families...
Wor Lass has a cousin on her father's side and a cousin on her mother's side who are married to a pair of siblings. This means that she has two sets of great-cousins from opposite sides of the family who are each other's cousins. It took me a few minutes to get my head around it.
Anyway, one of them got married yesterday, and we were able to watch the ceremony live on line. Cheaper than two flights to Vancouver for certain.0 -
The history of New Labour was them being too clever by half, and it backfiring badly:FrankBooth said:
They were afraid of the nationalists and hoped it would solve the issue.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Fishing, aye. Labour dicking about with the constitutional arrangement because they complacently thought they'd have Celtic fiefdoms forever has not been a great success for either the integrity of the UK or the electoral prospects of the Labour Party.
- Scottish devolution
- dodgy dossiers
- financial regulation
- mass immigration to "rub the right's noses in diversity"
- allowing a house price boom to placate middle England but pricing the young out of the market
- letting Northern Irish terrorists turn into gangsters to keep them quiet
etc etc etc.
Unfortunately for the country, they were not nearly as clever as they thought they were.3 -
Oh dear. A second error.Carnyx said:
What have I said wrong?ydoethur said:
How did you hack Carnyx’s account, Justin?Carnyx said:
Wife's tastes? As well as Ms Symonds?MaxPB said:
Dave wasn't reliant on the income from that property rental to pay for his wife's expensive tastes and 6 kids worth of child support.FrancisUrquhart said:
Cameron rented his place out.MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
Edit: should have said "Ms Symonds's." Apologies.
It is of course ‘Ms Symonds’.’0 -
All its eggs in the mRNA basket:
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-seals-contract-for-1-8-billion-biontech-pfizer-vaccines/0 -
At some point, the light will come on at the IOC and they’ll finally realise the Olympics can’t go ahead.RochdalePioneers said:
And yet the IOC insist the Olympics will carry on as planned. At which point does reality kick in that Covid isn't done but the idea of 2021 as being ok for leisure travel and global sports IS done?FrancisUrquhart said:7000 new covid cases in Japan....
0 -
Didn't realize either he or isam were banned? How would one know if a poster is banned as opposed to just not choosing to post?RochdalePioneers said:
Can I make the case for @TheJezziah having his ban hammer removed? Yes he called me a nazi for calling out his anti-semitism, but he is funny...Stocky said:Pleased to see that @isam 's ban has been lifted
0 -
The list vote counts in so far have the Greens only rising a couple of percentage points at most. They might not even get anymore MSPs net because the SNP win in Edinburgh Central counterintuitive ly knocks out one Green MSP in Lothian based on 2016 numbers.RochdalePioneers said:At 12:26 the vote share / change in the constituency seats counted is:
SNP 47% +1%
Con 22% -0.3%
Lab 22% -0.9%
LD 8% -0.9%
Green 0.8% +0.4%
Remember that people vote even more tactically on the list than constituencies, so a doubling of the Green vote (from a small base) would be very good for them on the list if they accelerate this as forecast.1 -
I think the public are ready to move on from Covid - but are the government ? The media aren't as it's keeping them relevant.kinabalu said:
To some extent (as a global story) but not here.IshmaelZ said:
Covid will be blotting out normal politics this time next year.kinabalu said:
It's not that. There are alternatives. Plus you don't know if someone will be good as leader until they are the leader.ydoethur said:
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.isam said:If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
The reason not to junk Starmer is because he hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can do in a scenario where Covid is not blotting out normal politics.
This starts now. Keir has a Yeir.
Plus, soon as it's only people in the third world suffering we'll lose interest.
They may need to shill for Indy ref 2 to keep them in a job - they have already started.0 -
Is this the same Badenoch...Sandpit said:
Kemi’s great, and doing an awesome job on the Equalities brief. Definitely a future member of the Cabinet.CursingStone said:
The con parliamentary party is brimming with lots of raw talent, much of it very new. Kemi Badenoch is a solid star to watch..Stuartinromford said:
And to be clear, the Conservatives face the same problem if Johnson falls under a bus tomorrow. The choice will be Sunak (personable, but about twelve years old, very dry, fingerprints on some of the worst Covid decisions) or Gove (stop sniggering at the back). None of the rest of them come close.ydoethur said:
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.isam said:If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
https://mobile.twitter.com/katielouisegunn/status/1308001804207128577
0 -
F1: pre-qualifying ramble:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/05/spain-pre-qualifying-2021.html1 -
Yesterday's US employment numbers were a big setback for Biden. Much worse than expected. Meanwhile economists are noting how inflationary pressures are returning, inevitable when rates are zip and money is being printed at a colossal rate. Copper hit a record high yesterday and Crude oil is bouncing back strongly.rottenborough said:Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.
Biden could be looking at the mom and pop of all stagflations if he is not careful and that will be bad for all Americans, including key constituencies like white women in the suburbs.
Britain has the same policy. The difference I think is that Sunak is clever enough to know how exposed the economy is, and the conservatives are.
1 -
Cameron didn't win in 2010 because he moved to the centre. Well, he didn't really win at all. 2010 was an indecisive tie in his favour. But insofar as he did win, it was because the Labour Government screwed up badly and unmistakably on the economy in a way that affected tens of millions of people. That's what Labour need now, far more than a better leader.MaxPB said:
Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.Stuartinromford said:
Here's the thing though.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.
I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.0 -
More to the point, how do you get a Covid test 24 hours before leaving the South Sandwich Islands?SeaShantyIrish2 said:AFTER the dust has settled, can we please return to TRULY important matters?
Such as the Heligoland Question!4 -
Believe "Ms Symonds's" and "Ms Symonds'" are both proper.ydoethur said:
Oh dear. A second error.Carnyx said:
What have I said wrong?ydoethur said:
How did you hack Carnyx’s account, Justin?Carnyx said:
Wife's tastes? As well as Ms Symonds?MaxPB said:
Dave wasn't reliant on the income from that property rental to pay for his wife's expensive tastes and 6 kids worth of child support.FrancisUrquhart said:
Cameron rented his place out.MaxPB said:I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.
Edit: should have said "Ms Symonds's." Apologies.
It is of course ‘Ms Symonds’.’
But former is clearer, which is preferable & why I use it.
Have always thought the dangling ' a rather ridiculous feature of the English language.3 -
Also G. Brown was nowhere near as popular/competent as the media kept telling everyone he was.Fishing said:
Cameron didn't win in 2010 because he moved to the centre. Well, he didn't really win at all. 2010 was an indecisive tie in his favour. But insofar as he did win, it was because the Labour Government screwed up badly and unmistakably on the economy in a way that affected tens of millions of people. That's what Labour need now, far more than a better leader.MaxPB said:
Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.Stuartinromford said:
Here's the thing though.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.
I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.1 -
Given turnouts in Scotland, that may have little effect other than in winding up voters by appearing to play games. After Brexit.ydoethur said:The other trick Johnson could play - and it would be totally cynical but almost certainly successful - is to put a minimum 40% threshold of the total population voting for Sindy before a change could take place, given how dramatic the changes would be.
1979 offers him a precedent.1 -
Or the lone tory, been a long time since there's been a tory on Sheffield Council, it would be good if they had some powerGardenwalker said:
A LD/Green administration would be good.MarqueeMark said:Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.
I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.
Don’t know if that’s possible, maybe with support from an independent or two?0 -
Traditional culture will mean much less when voters' wallets are ravaged by higher taxes, higher interest rates and faster inflation.MaxPB said:
Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.Stuartinromford said:
Here's the thing though.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.
I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.
This is the next big debate. It will be the economy and living standards.1 -
Is it just me or is the constant political with a same p on Sky Sports and BT Sports getting incredibly irriating. I just want to watch the footy, but every advert break I am bombarded by their anti social media hate speech, BLM, eco campaigns and no escape while watching the game as they flash up BLM banner next to the score.0
-
I’m sure the government plans to have new jobs, buildings and infrastructure in marginal seats well underway by the time of the next election. People can see every day that voting Conservative gets stuff done and creates jobs.WhisperingOracle said:
It's a key part of the government's optimistic pitch to the former Labour heartlands. Starmer needs to advertise what Labour would also do on that front too, in a distinctive and immediately compelling way, amongst other things.alex_ said:
Does that really work when the Govt are already doing it? Biden is doing it in the teeth of uncompromising opposition from the Republicans.rottenborough said:Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.
1 -
I still don’t really understand South Korea (not that I’ve made any effort to). They consistently have between c.4-700 cases a day but never more or less. Which suggests that their R number has basically been exactly 1 for weeks. Which in the U.K. we would be saying leaves the situation on a knife edge. And their number of deaths fluctuates between 4 and 9 a day. I don’t understand how they can be controlling it that well, without it ever breaking upwards - or moving towards elimination.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nah....South Korea is the only country now who has managed this without going full metal isolation / lockdown with 2 cases and they still bump along with a few 100 cases a day.Floater said:
I thought they were one of the poster childs of disease control?FrancisUrquhart said:7000 new covid cases in Japan....
0 -
You have a choice. Get rid of your package.FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me or is the constant political with a same p on Sky Sports and BT Sports getting incredibly irriating. I just want to watch the footy, but every advert break I am bombarded by their social media abuse, BLM, eco campaigns and no escape while watching the game as they flash up BLM banner next to the score.
0 -
See also 'shovelling money into inner city constituencies and ignoring towns'.Fishing said:
The history of New Labour was them being too clever by half, and it backfiring badly:FrankBooth said:
They were afraid of the nationalists and hoped it would solve the issue.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Fishing, aye. Labour dicking about with the constitutional arrangement because they complacently thought they'd have Celtic fiefdoms forever has not been a great success for either the integrity of the UK or the electoral prospects of the Labour Party.
- Scottish devolution
- dodgy dossiers
- financial regulation
- mass immigration to "rub the right's noses in diversity"
- allowing a house price boom to placate middle England but pricing the young out of the market
- letting Northern Irish terrorists turn into gangsters to keep them quiet
etc etc etc.
Unfortunately for the country, they were not nearly as clever as they thought they were.1 -
Sky is now owned by Democrat shilling ComCast - not Rupert Murdoch.FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me or is the constant political with a same p on Sky Sports and BT Sports getting incredibly irriating. I just want to watch the footy, but every advert break is bombarded by social media abuse, BLM, eco campaigns and no escape while watching the game as they flash up BLM banner next to the score.
I note the Kentucky Derby beat the Oscars for viewing figures in the US this year - draw your own conclusions.0 -
Unless that doesn't happen. No fat ladies have sung anywhere yet.kinabalu said:
To some extent (as a global story) but not here.IshmaelZ said:
Covid will be blotting out normal politics this time next year.kinabalu said:
It's not that. There are alternatives. Plus you don't know if someone will be good as leader until they are the leader.ydoethur said:
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.isam said:If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
The reason not to junk Starmer is because he hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can do in a scenario where Covid is not blotting out normal politics.
This starts now. Keir has a Yeir.
Plus, soon as it's only people in the third world suffering we'll lose interest.
Plus pms and lotos have to deal with what comes up. Not a good covid loto is a "wrong sort of snow" sort of claim. And let's not forget how often it's been said over the last year that covid does not play to Johnson's strengths either.1 -
Spying on your every move allows you to do proper contact tracing and thus can get on top of a cluster early. Also they wear masks everywhere and I believe a range of rules to limit spread that people stick to.alex_ said:
I still don’t really understand South Korea (not that I’ve made any effort to). They consistently have between c.4-700 cases a day but never more or less. Which suggests that their R number has basically been exactly 1 for weeks. Which in the U.K. we would be saying leaves the situation on a knife edge. And their number of deaths fluctuates between 4 and 9 a day. I don’t understand how they can be controlling it that well, without it ever breaking upwards - or moving towards elimination.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nah....South Korea is the only country now who has managed this without going full metal isolation / lockdown with 2 cases and they still bump along with a few 100 cases a day.Floater said:
I thought they were one of the poster childs of disease control?FrancisUrquhart said:7000 new covid cases in Japan....
0 -
Will a party calling for even more expenditure and even higher taxes and even faster greening benefit from the discontent?contrarian said:
Traditional culture will mean much less when voters' wallets are ravaged by higher taxes, higher interest rates and faster inflation.MaxPB said:
Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.Stuartinromford said:
Here's the thing though.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.
I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.
This is the next big debate. It will be the economy and living standards.0 -
My understanding is that the first rule of the ban hammer is that you don't talk about the ban hammer.kinabalu said:
Didn't realize either he or isam were banned? How would one know if a poster is banned as opposed to just not choosing to post?RochdalePioneers said:
Can I make the case for @TheJezziah having his ban hammer removed? Yes he called me a nazi for calling out his anti-semitism, but he is funny...Stocky said:Pleased to see that @isam 's ban has been lifted
4 -
I lived in Rotherham. My son lives in Rotherham. Its a classic example of a town absolutely left to rot with a labour council that is happy to blame the Tories as it presides over a mess.Floater said:i see the bloodbath for Labour continues apace
Tories plus 17 in Rotherham
Cannock Chase gained by tories
Not remotely surprised the Tories are taking a wrecking ball to their arrogance. Not that they can - or will want to - fix what is wrong with the town.1 -
The hype was Brown had a towering intellect. Actually he was th8ck as f8ck. His UK gold sale alone cost the country billions.HarryFreeman said:
Also G. Brown was nowhere near as popular/competent as the media kept telling everyone he was.Fishing said:
Cameron didn't win in 2010 because he moved to the centre. Well, he didn't really win at all. 2010 was an indecisive tie in his favour. But insofar as he did win, it was because the Labour Government screwed up badly and unmistakably on the economy in a way that affected tens of millions of people. That's what Labour need now, far more than a better leader.MaxPB said:
Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.Stuartinromford said:
Here's the thing though.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.
I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.
2 -
But that steers massively to "Yes" in the first. It's like not having it. So you're back (effectively) to just the the one real vote - on the deal. Which is the scenario I first addressed. The negotiations would lack political imperative and genuine balance of power, things which can only come from separation first being democratically mandated. Vote for Indy, then the Scottish govt thrashes out the best deal it can get from Westminster. This has all the downsides we know and (don't) love, but I can't see any other way in practice for it to handled.Stocky said:
I don't agree with this.kinabalu said:
Yep, you could have a ratifying 2nd referendum. That is more feasible. But it would be prone to all the flaws (imo fatal) that would have bedeviled the Brexit version if May had put her deal to the vote. Remain can't really be on there because it's been rejected. If it is, Leavers who don't like the deal would be disenfranchized and many would boycott. Trinary referendums are too messy so the other option has to be Leave No Deal. Which opens up a different can of worms. Ah the memories.Stocky said:
Not if there are two referendums, one to trigger the above procedure and, if approved, the second to ratify the outcome.kinabalu said:Thanks for interesting Header. The premise - negotiate the indy deal first and then have the vote - sounds sensible on the face of it but in practice is a non starter. Years of intense, complex, fractious talks would be required to thrash out a deal, and to get there you need the authentic political pressures of having to do it because separation has been democratically mandated. The notion of going through all of this in advance as a kind of roleplay, and with the balance of power artificially stacked in favour of the UK government, which it would be, is somewhat ludicrous. It's a Not Happening Event.
The first referendum would be indicative, i.e. for Scots to express a wish that terms be investigated and negotiated in advance of a final decision being made, so that they know of the practicalities and outcomes involved upfront.
Then a 2nd referendum would determine the final outcome with the electorate having been furnished with the information necessary to make an enlightened choice.1 -
One of the main advantages to Scotland falling off would be to kick the faltering Labour Party's walking stick away. How soon we forget 2017! We came within a hair's breadth of having Prime Minister Corbyn propped up by the SNP. The best insurance against a future far left Government in England: get shot of the Scottish MPs.Fishing said:
The history of New Labour was them being too clever by half, and it backfiring badly:FrankBooth said:
They were afraid of the nationalists and hoped it would solve the issue.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Fishing, aye. Labour dicking about with the constitutional arrangement because they complacently thought they'd have Celtic fiefdoms forever has not been a great success for either the integrity of the UK or the electoral prospects of the Labour Party.
- Scottish devolution
- dodgy dossiers
- financial regulation
- mass immigration to "rub the right's noses in diversity"
- allowing a house price boom to placate middle England but pricing the young out of the market
- letting Northern Irish terrorists turn into gangsters to keep them quiet
etc etc etc.
Unfortunately for the country, they were not nearly as clever as they thought they were.
Of course, you could argue that if we had an English Parliament, equity would be restored to the Union and an accommodation between a Labour minority and Scottish nationalism at UK level wouldn't be half so destructive. But we're not getting an English Parliament, so we must deal with the reality of things as they are. Separation is therefore best for everyone, except Labour which richly deserves to suffer the consequences of the hubristic imbecility of Blair, Brown, Dewar and all the rest of them.
The Labour Party killed Britain. It deserves to be thrown into the grave along with it.2 -
The difference is that the former already had the 50% vote in favour. The SNP are looking for justification to pursue the holding of such a vote. And on the grounds that there is fundamental change that means the verdict of 7 years ago is no longer sustainable.Theuniondivvie said:
43% = powerful new mandate to get Brexit doneRochdalePioneers said:At 12:26 the vote share / change in the constituency seats counted is:
SNP 47% +1%
Con 22% -0.3%
Lab 22% -0.9%
LD 8% -0.9%
Green 0.8% +0.4%
Remember that people vote even more tactically on the list than constituencies, so a doubling of the Green vote (from a small base) would be very good for them on the list if they accelerate this as forecast.
47% = now is not the time1 -
He had the right personality type to be chancellor (into detail, comes across as dull and competent), but totally unsuited to be Prime Minister, where you need to be flashy and willing to do things on the fly. In that respect, he and Blair were well-cast. I think Starmer is much more like Brown - would be decent as a senior Cabinet Minister, but totally unsuited to be PM/LotO.HarryFreeman said:
Also G. Brown was nowhere near as popular/competent as the media kept telling everyone he was.Fishing said:
Cameron didn't win in 2010 because he moved to the centre. Well, he didn't really win at all. 2010 was an indecisive tie in his favour. But insofar as he did win, it was because the Labour Government screwed up badly and unmistakably on the economy in a way that affected tens of millions of people. That's what Labour need now, far more than a better leader.MaxPB said:
Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.Stuartinromford said:
Here's the thing though.MaxPB said:
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.kinabalu said:
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.Philip_Thompson said:
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.kinabalu said:
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.noneoftheabove said:
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.isam said:
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.noneoftheabove said:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.kinabalu said:Owen Jones take on Labour's predicament -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/hartlepool-labour-lack-vision-corbyn-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
However Keir is Idea-free.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.
I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.0
