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Boris should start Scottish independence negotiations now – politicalbetting.com

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  • What you mean banging on about twinning with Palestine rather than the bins doesn't get the blood flowing for many voters....
    Alan Beith managed 40 years of sitting on his arse in Berwick by getting the bins emptied, and not much else.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.
    The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.

    Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    This can't work, because it will just result in an acrimonious split, which would then harm a PR coalition. Labour's only realistic options are a consensual centre-left program, or a semi-detached coalition agreement implementing PR, I would say.
    I expect him to do nothing. His angry interview yesterday said he'd do everything it takes - which is bin off the lunatics. Yes the split would be acrimonious but it feels inevitable that its coming so better to do it on his terms than theirs.

    As for splitting the PR coalition the response should be the same as Milliband's should have been to Sturgeon. Challenge the 20ish Momentum MPs to vote against the progressive coalition and with the Tories.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,454
    7000 new covid cases in Japan....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Boris didn't see off May ?

    That's a view.

    The other two are of no interest to the voters of Hartlepool.

    His cunning tactic of voting for May's deal was a masterstroke.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    AnneJGP said:

    Does the banned person not receive an explanation? I agree it's up to the host to decide who posts & who doesn't, but if I unintentionally transgressed I'd like to think I'd be told why, as the only way to avoid making the same mistake in future.
    "You have been banned/suspended for etc, etc" - Might be a good idea.

    Of course we have one of the great legal minds of our times monitoring the board.

    Though sadly TSE's been AWOL re: potential litigation of global (or at least continental) significance, namely the matter of West West Virginia . . .
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    kinabalu said:

    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    Too much vinegar on your cornflakes today?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,302
    kinabalu said:



    So you think he'll go for it then?

    I'm no Johnson expert. One of his many stans on here will be better placed to judge.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    ping said:

    I hope you’re right.

    But I think he’s a dud, unfortunately. Not sure labour have anyone better, tho.

    A lot depends on what the tories do. Are they going to revert to fiscal conservatism? That would help Kier out of his mess.

    I suspect they’re gonna kick paying the bills past the next election - In which case, I don’t think labour gets a look in.
    I'm not saying Starmer WILL turn things around - perhaps he is a dud - I'm saying he has a year to start doing so and he might. There's some evidence he can't cut it, that's undeniable, but it's not enough for a verdict. As you say, let's see how it goes post pandemic, eg on the tax & spend front. We've lost 2 years of growth, unemployment is back, inequalities are deepening, and the public finances are fucked. So there's a lot to like.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Maybe PBers could have our own Court of Appeals like Face Book?

    I nominate Jack W.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    More than I could picture Starmer as one, yes.
    Its still a "no" though...
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819
    edited May 2021

    Agreeing a referendum when the SNP are relatively weak and have an underwhelming mandate is a much better idea from a unionist viewpoint than agreeing one when they're in a hegimonic ascendency.

    If the Union side (Remain/No, say), won a more convincing victory than in 2014, that would likely put the issue to bed for a generation. There does seem to be an acceptance that Brexit has changed things but that actually offers those opposed to a neverendum a good argument: there is unlikely to be any similar level of constitutional change that would merit such a quick revisiting of the question. And as Brexit proved, support for the idea, even with many firmly in each camp, still drifted by as much as 10%.

    In respect of Wilson, his EEC referendum pretty much ended debate on the issue for 30+ years. Yes, Labour was committed to withdrawal in 1983 (though not 1979), but Labour was also unelectable at the time and going against the referendum was just another sign of that. True, that was based on a 2:1 outcome which is highly unlikely in Scotland but I wouldn't be surprised if, on a level field and with the genuine consequences of independence in front of them, the unionists couldn't outperform the 55% from last time.

    As for Johnson, his argument would be 1. you learn lessons from experiences and use them to do it better next time, and 2. ultimately, the UK did have to have a vote on the deal, via the 2019 general election.
    My main criticism of Johnson is that if Brexit was so obviously the right thing to do, why did he go into hiding for a month after the referendum result came out? His lack of cojones directly led to the May years.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Congratulations to Drakeford on a stunning result -- perhaps not quite so many congratulations to Wales, though.

    The main take-home seems to be pandemics & lockdowns are just great for Governing parties.

    Now the advantages are clear, perhaps we'll be having them more regularly in future :)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Alan Beith managed 40 years of sitting on his arse in Berwick by getting the bins emptied, and not much else.
    Speaking of bins, how's the Captain doing in the Big Smoke?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Talk on the Beeb that Andy Street may win WM on 1st pref. Meanwhile in london so far swing to the tories ranging from 1-3.5%. Clearly Bailey won't win but with Labour down by more than the Tories in Scotland and even in Wales popular vote both Lab and Con up by 5% there's really not a lot of good cheer for Starmer today....so far.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    Stocky said:

    What happens after a year should things not improve and he doesn't resign? The LP is not good as dispensing with its leaders.
    I think if things look as bleak for Labour this time next year he will resign. He'll have no choice.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    HYUFD said:

    Wrong, Unionist parties have won most votes in Scotland at this election, most Scots do not want indyref2 now. Spain ignored the Catalan nationalist government without even one independence referendum and it remains in Spain 4 years later.

    I know you hate Brexit and are desperate for Scottish independence to punish Leavers (though it would make the rUK even more Leave) but it is not happening
    1. We haven't counted the votes yet. How do you know what the biggest vote is?
    2. Who gives a rat fuck about your endless comparisons to somewhere else?
    3. I do not want independence

    Apart from that you're spot on luv.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,011
    kinabalu said:

    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2021
    MaxPB said:

    I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.

    In fairness to Mr Johnson, that's also true for many Tory MPs AIUI (and of other parties too, but they're not so immediately germane).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    BBC Scotland election coverage is fun. They have a "Blockbusters"-style map of hexagonal shapes.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819

    Boris didn't see off May ?

    That's a view.

    The other two are of no interest to the voters of Hartlepool.

    He bottled the aftermath of the referendum to the extent that his main supporters lost all confidence in him.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Alistair said:

    Over the Solway Firth.
    The Skye Boat Song - Ella Roberts
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBSqQPP4aVM

    Not Solway Firth, but you get the idea.

    AND a great excuse to post a great song sung by a great singer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,504

    More Labour slaughter. This time Cannock.

    Bloody hell. Never saw that coming. There are some very large swings there. Even my own ward, which was 55% Labour last time, has gone down. Losing all nine seats is a bit of a horror show.

    Not looking good on the County Council either. Two losses for Labour so far, Burntwood North and Keele, while the three Cannock wards (which have yet to declare) will surely be going blue as well on these figures.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,011
    MaxPB said:

    I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.

    Zippo
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,504
    edited May 2021
    kinabalu said:

    I think if things look as bleak for Labour this time next year he will resign. He'll have no choice.
    Corbyn was in a far bleaker situation in 2016-17 and didn’t resign.

    And, to Labour’s later great misfortune, staged at least a partial recovery.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,504
    Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917
    MaxPB said:

    Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP.

    How would one go about "selling out brexit", if one wanted to?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,454
    MaxPB said:

    I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.

    Cameron rented his place out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775

    It is indeed trivial to identify Labours problems, although it would be hard to single it down to a problem. My rough order would be:

    Demographics against them
    FPTP against them
    Divided
    Lack of clear message
    Corbyn legacy
    Leadership lacking quality in both leader and cabinet
    City vs town
    Devolution settlements
    Boundaries against them
    Nothing trivial about that! Especially when you start to rank them and look at cross correlations. It's a PhD.

    Depressing list but a pretty good one imo. I'd throw in the media. Although maybe not, since we can't do much about that.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Carnyx said:



    In fairness to Mr Johnson, that's also true for many Tory MPs AIUI (and of other parties too, but they're not so immediately germane).
    Hardly on a scale of Trump and his hotels billing his Secret Service detail, or charging visiting foreign dignitaries.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,504
    ydoethur said:

    Bloody hell. Never saw that coming. There are some very large swings there. Even my own ward, which was 55% Labour last time, has gone down. Losing all nine seats is a bit of a horror show.

    Not looking good on the County Council either. Two losses for Labour so far, Burntwood North and Keele, while the three Cannock wards (which have yet to declare) will surely be going blue as well on these figures.
    The Midlands seem to have really turned against Labour.

    As the region is packed full of marginals this looks extremely bad for Starmer.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    At 12:26 the vote share / change in the constituency seats counted is:
    SNP 47% +1%
    Con 22% -0.3%
    Lab 22% -0.9%
    LD 8% -0.9%
    Green 0.8% +0.4%

    Remember that people vote even more tactically on the list than constituencies, so a doubling of the Green vote (from a small base) would be very good for them on the list if they accelerate this as forecast.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,933
    Good to see @isam back. Much of what he has been saying has been vindicated.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    Cameron rented his place out.
    Dave wasn't reliant on the income from that property rental to pay for his wife's expensive tastes and 6 kids worth of child support.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    MaxPB said:

    I'm also extremely uneasy about Boris becoming a landlord and renting out his house in London. That's got to be a huge conflict of interest when the chancellor inevitably begins to push for more restrictions and taxes on landlords. How much will Boris' personal financial situation play into the decision making process.

    You have to be kidding the entire labour cabinet became millionaires on acquiring and renting out london property. A conflict of interest would need to show that he was disproportionately impacted by any proposals. unlikely. Like saying that if the chancellor is a big fan of whisky he shouldnt be able to change the duty on it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,504

    The Midlands seem to have really turned against Labour.

    As the region is packed full of marginals this looks extremely bad for Starmer.
    Not many in Staffordshire though.

    Which in a sense is the problem, given in 1997 I think only three seats were not Labour and now they don’t hold a single one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    edited May 2021
    isam said:

    But what IS his big Ideir?
    Patience. You'll find out in a yeir. :smile:
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    7000 new covid cases in Japan....

    And yet the IOC insist the Olympics will carry on as planned. At which point does reality kick in that Covid isn't done but the idea of 2021 as being ok for leisure travel and global sports IS done?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    TimT said:

    Hardly on a scale of Trump and his hotels billing his Secret Service detail, or charging visiting foreign dignitaries.
    No. Changes to capital taxation (for instance) would massively trump (sorry) such chicken feed revenue.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210


    Congratulations to Drakeford on a stunning result -- perhaps not quite so many congratulations to Wales, though.

    The main take-home seems to be pandemics & lockdowns are just great for Governing parties.

    Now the advantages are clear, perhaps we'll be having them more regularly in future :)

    Has Covid helped incumbents in general ?

    Once the voters have other stuff to worry about we may see more change in the future ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    You have to be kidding the entire labour cabinet became millionaires on acquiring and renting out london property. A conflict of interest would need to show that he was disproportionately impacted by any proposals. unlikely. Like saying that if the chancellor is a big fan of whisky he shouldnt be able to change the duty on it.
    But he would be disproportionately effected by more taxes on income from property. We know his personal financial situation is poor so if renting out his London house is the way out of that he's hardly going to approve any policy measures which hit that income.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559


    Congratulations to Drakeford on a stunning result -- perhaps not quite so many congratulations to Wales, though.

    The main take-home seems to be pandemics & lockdowns are just great for Governing parties.

    Now the advantages are clear, perhaps we'll be having them more regularly in future :)

    Which puts into perspective Trumpsky's achievement in losing, not just his own re-election but the US Senate.

    He had to work overtime achieving THAT own goal.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,011

    Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.

    He is a left wing loon.. does he include free everything for everyone?
    ...
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited May 2021
    MaxPB said:

    The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.

    Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
    Yes. Also, in effect, I think a lot of people almost think of the likes of Starmer as having been the Government in 17-19 because of the power Parliament had and what was done. That Parliament was extremely unpopular and in essence Boris is the change candidate that overthrew it, and since then hasn’t been in power long. That gets him the “give him a chance to do something” benefit of the doubt and he’s also been immensely lucky in that all Covid errors are now forgiven because vaccines. Next week he gets to shape the agenda with a Queen’s Speech, and because of increases to growth forecasts, the spending review will now have more cash to throw around.

    He’s lucky.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    MaxPB said:

    Dave wasn't reliant on the income from that property rental to pay for his wife's expensive tastes and 6 kids worth of child support.
    Wife's tastes? As well as Ms Symonds?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    MrEd said:

    If we are going to start rhyming slogans, it's time to get rid of Dreary Keir-y
    Rhyming is ok - and good fun - but not in a partisan sneery way.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    Aberdeenshire South & Kincardine: SNP hold
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    No. Changes to capital taxation (for instance) would massively trump (sorry) such chicken feed revenue.
    You may be over-estimating how much actual capital Trumpsky has to tax!

    Though maybe I'm missing your point? Or you are missing TimT's?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,339
    MaxPB said:

    The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.

    Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
    Here's the thing though.

    There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

    If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.

    I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    7000 new covid cases in Japan....

    I thought they were one of the poster childs of disease control?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    AFTER the dust has settled, can we please return to TRULY important matters?

    Such as the Heligoland Question!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,504
    Carnyx said:

    Wife's tastes? As well as Ms Symonds?
    How did you hack Carnyx’s account, Justin?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    edited May 2021
    MaxPB said:

    The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.

    Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
    "I'm really pleased that, whatever outcome the next Prime Minister puts before us, whether that's a deal of some sort or no deal, we've agreed that it must be subject to another referendum, and in that referendum Remain must be an option, and Labour will be campaigning for Remain.

    That's a really important point of principle" - Sir Keir Starmer 2019

    That's why he will never be PM - nearly two thirds of constituencies voted Leave
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.

    Does that really work when the Govt are already doing it? Biden is doing it in the teeth of uncompromising opposition from the Republicans.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2021
    ydoethur said:

    How did you hack Carnyx’s account, Justin?
    What have I said wrong?

    Edit: should have said "Ms Symonds's." Apologies.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    IshmaelZ said:

    Covid will be blotting out normal politics this time next year.
    To some extent (as a global story) but not here.

    Plus, soon as it's only people in the third world suffering we'll lose interest.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    tlg86 said:
    Whoops! Must be a serious issue to immediately have to take them all out of service for inspection, hope they don’t find many sets with issues.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,454
    edited May 2021
    Floater said:

    I thought they were one of the poster childs of disease control?
    Nah....South Korea is the only country now who has managed this without going full metal isolation / lockdown with 2 cases and they still bump along with a few 100 cases a day.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2021


    Congratulations to Drakeford on a stunning result -- perhaps not quite so many congratulations to Wales, though.

    The main take-home seems to be pandemics & lockdowns are just great for Governing parties.

    Now the advantages are clear, perhaps we'll be having them more regularly in future :)

    Yes and no.

    The bills for this largesse have yet to come, but they will, in terms of higher taxes, faster inflation, and maybe higher structural unemployment.

    Look at the tory result in Surrey, one of the areas set to get hit for six by Johnson's inevitable tax increases over the winter.

    Not good, Not good at all.

    Essex? Kent? meh. Its not all good news.



  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    i see the bloodbath for Labour continues apace

    Tories plus 17 in Rotherham

    Cannock Chase gained by tories

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    He is a left wing loon.. does he include free everything for everyone?
    ...
    Uncle Joe a left wing loon? Will be thrilled to pass this along to Bernie & AOC!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited May 2021
    alex_ said:

    Does that really work when the Govt are already doing it? Biden is doing it in the teeth of uncompromising opposition from the Republicans.
    It's a key part of the government's optimistic pitch to the former Labour heartlands. Starmer needs to advertise what Labour would also do on that front too, in a distinctive and immediately compelling way, amongst other things.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    Here's the thing though.

    There are an awful lot of people who are of the view that the UK is making a mistake here. Apart from at the height of the vaccine wars, "2016 was the wrong decision" outpolls "2016 was the right decision". I've posted this link before, but it's important;

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

    If Labour gets on board as a Brexit cheerleader, they ship lots of votes- mostly younger, urban voters.

    I don't know what the answer is, but getting on board with Brexit isn't it.
    Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,309

    At 12:26 the vote share / change in the constituency seats counted is:
    SNP 47% +1%
    Con 22% -0.3%
    Lab 22% -0.9%
    LD 8% -0.9%
    Green 0.8% +0.4%

    Remember that people vote even more tactically on the list than constituencies, so a doubling of the Green vote (from a small base) would be very good for them on the list if they accelerate this as forecast.

    43% = powerful new mandate to get Brexit done
    47% = now is not the time
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,522

    Totally off topic: The joys of extended families...

    Wor Lass has a cousin on her father's side and a cousin on her mother's side who are married to a pair of siblings. This means that she has two sets of great-cousins from opposite sides of the family who are each other's cousins. It took me a few minutes to get my head around it.

    Anyway, one of them got married yesterday, and we were able to watch the ceremony live on line. Cheaper than two flights to Vancouver for certain.

    In Norfolk, that leads to problems working out which is the ring finger....
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,499

    They were afraid of the nationalists and hoped it would solve the issue.
    The history of New Labour was them being too clever by half, and it backfiring badly:

    - Scottish devolution
    - dodgy dossiers
    - financial regulation
    - mass immigration to "rub the right's noses in diversity"
    - allowing a house price boom to placate middle England but pricing the young out of the market
    - letting Northern Irish terrorists turn into gangsters to keep them quiet

    etc etc etc.

    Unfortunately for the country, they were not nearly as clever as they thought they were.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,504
    Carnyx said:

    What have I said wrong?

    Edit: should have said "Ms Symonds's." Apologies.
    Oh dear. A second error.

    It is of course ‘Ms Symonds’.’
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    And yet the IOC insist the Olympics will carry on as planned. At which point does reality kick in that Covid isn't done but the idea of 2021 as being ok for leisure travel and global sports IS done?
    At some point, the light will come on at the IOC and they’ll finally realise the Olympics can’t go ahead.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775

    Can I make the case for @TheJezziah having his ban hammer removed? Yes he called me a nazi for calling out his anti-semitism, but he is funny...
    Didn't realize either he or isam were banned? How would one know if a poster is banned as opposed to just not choosing to post?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    At 12:26 the vote share / change in the constituency seats counted is:
    SNP 47% +1%
    Con 22% -0.3%
    Lab 22% -0.9%
    LD 8% -0.9%
    Green 0.8% +0.4%

    Remember that people vote even more tactically on the list than constituencies, so a doubling of the Green vote (from a small base) would be very good for them on the list if they accelerate this as forecast.

    The list vote counts in so far have the Greens only rising a couple of percentage points at most. They might not even get anymore MSPs net because the SNP win in Edinburgh Central counterintuitive ly knocks out one Green MSP in Lothian based on 2016 numbers.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    kinabalu said:

    To some extent (as a global story) but not here.

    Plus, soon as it's only people in the third world suffering we'll lose interest.
    I think the public are ready to move on from Covid - but are the government ? The media aren't as it's keeping them relevant.

    They may need to shill for Indy ref 2 to keep them in a job - they have already started.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    Sandpit said:

    Kemi’s great, and doing an awesome job on the Equalities brief. Definitely a future member of the Cabinet.
    Is this the same Badenoch...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/katielouisegunn/status/1308001804207128577
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2021

    Paul Mason backing what I said earlier about doing a Biden. Get the massive economic bold policy going.

    Yesterday's US employment numbers were a big setback for Biden. Much worse than expected. Meanwhile economists are noting how inflationary pressures are returning, inevitable when rates are zip and money is being printed at a colossal rate. Copper hit a record high yesterday and Crude oil is bouncing back strongly.

    Biden could be looking at the mom and pop of all stagflations if he is not careful and that will be bad for all Americans, including key constituencies like white women in the suburbs.

    Britain has the same policy. The difference I think is that Sunak is clever enough to know how exposed the economy is, and the conservatives are.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,499
    MaxPB said:

    Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.
    Cameron didn't win in 2010 because he moved to the centre. Well, he didn't really win at all. 2010 was an indecisive tie in his favour. But insofar as he did win, it was because the Labour Government screwed up badly and unmistakably on the economy in a way that affected tens of millions of people. That's what Labour need now, far more than a better leader.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,504
    Floater said:

    i see the bloodbath for Labour continues apace

    Tories plus 17 in Rotherham

    Cannock Chase gained by tories

    You have missed the important news in Cannock.

    Labour were defending nine seats. About half of them by large margins.

    They have lost all nine of them.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,587

    AFTER the dust has settled, can we please return to TRULY important matters?

    Such as the Heligoland Question!

    More to the point, how do you get a Covid test 24 hours before leaving the South Sandwich Islands?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    Oh dear. A second error.

    It is of course ‘Ms Symonds’.’
    Believe "Ms Symonds's" and "Ms Symonds'" are both proper.

    But former is clearer, which is preferable & why I use it.

    Have always thought the dangling ' a rather ridiculous feature of the English language.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Fishing said:

    Cameron didn't win in 2010 because he moved to the centre. Well, he didn't really win at all. 2010 was an indecisive tie in his favour. But insofar as he did win, it was because the Labour Government screwed up badly and unmistakably on the economy in a way that affected tens of millions of people. That's what Labour need now, far more than a better leader.
    Also G. Brown was nowhere near as popular/competent as the media kept telling everyone he was.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,097
    ydoethur said:

    The other trick Johnson could play - and it would be totally cynical but almost certainly successful - is to put a minimum 40% threshold of the total population voting for Sindy before a change could take place, given how dramatic the changes would be.

    1979 offers him a precedent.

    Given turnouts in Scotland, that may have little effect other than in winding up voters by appearing to play games. After Brexit.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 265

    A LD/Green administration would be good.
    Don’t know if that’s possible, maybe with support from an independent or two?
    Or the lone tory, been a long time since there's been a tory on Sheffield Council, it would be good if they had some power
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MaxPB said:

    Labour are doomed to opposition for the next 2 or 3 cycles in that case. The Tory voter coalition is built on the back of brexit and traditional culture, I don't see how that can be broken apart by the current Labour party. In the same way Dave shat on the blue rinse brigade and turnip taliban to win in 2010 and 2015 Starmer needs to do the same with his remoaners and ultra woke types. They have nowhere else to go if they want to win.
    Traditional culture will mean much less when voters' wallets are ravaged by higher taxes, higher interest rates and faster inflation.

    This is the next big debate. It will be the economy and living standards.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,454
    edited May 2021
    Is it just me or is the constant political with a same p on Sky Sports and BT Sports getting incredibly irriating. I just want to watch the footy, but every advert break I am bombarded by their anti social media hate speech, BLM, eco campaigns and no escape while watching the game as they flash up BLM banner next to the score.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    It's a key part of the government's optimistic pitch to the former Labour heartlands. Starmer needs to advertise what Labour would also do on that front too, in a distinctive and immediately compelling way, amongst other things.
    I’m sure the government plans to have new jobs, buildings and infrastructure in marginal seats well underway by the time of the next election. People can see every day that voting Conservative gets stuff done and creates jobs.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Nah....South Korea is the only country now who has managed this without going full metal isolation / lockdown with 2 cases and they still bump along with a few 100 cases a day.
    I still don’t really understand South Korea (not that I’ve made any effort to). They consistently have between c.4-700 cases a day but never more or less. Which suggests that their R number has basically been exactly 1 for weeks. Which in the U.K. we would be saying leaves the situation on a knife edge. And their number of deaths fluctuates between 4 and 9 a day. I don’t understand how they can be controlling it that well, without it ever breaking upwards - or moving towards elimination.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Is it just me or is the constant political with a same p on Sky Sports and BT Sports getting incredibly irriating. I just want to watch the footy, but every advert break I am bombarded by their social media abuse, BLM, eco campaigns and no escape while watching the game as they flash up BLM banner next to the score.

    You have a choice. Get rid of your package.
  • Fishing said:

    The history of New Labour was them being too clever by half, and it backfiring badly:

    - Scottish devolution
    - dodgy dossiers
    - financial regulation
    - mass immigration to "rub the right's noses in diversity"
    - allowing a house price boom to placate middle England but pricing the young out of the market
    - letting Northern Irish terrorists turn into gangsters to keep them quiet

    etc etc etc.

    Unfortunately for the country, they were not nearly as clever as they thought they were.
    See also 'shovelling money into inner city constituencies and ignoring towns'.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Is it just me or is the constant political with a same p on Sky Sports and BT Sports getting incredibly irriating. I just want to watch the footy, but every advert break is bombarded by social media abuse, BLM, eco campaigns and no escape while watching the game as they flash up BLM banner next to the score.

    Sky is now owned by Democrat shilling ComCast - not Rupert Murdoch.

    I note the Kentucky Derby beat the Oscars for viewing figures in the US this year - draw your own conclusions.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    To some extent (as a global story) but not here.

    Plus, soon as it's only people in the third world suffering we'll lose interest.
    Unless that doesn't happen. No fat ladies have sung anywhere yet.

    Plus pms and lotos have to deal with what comes up. Not a good covid loto is a "wrong sort of snow" sort of claim. And let's not forget how often it's been said over the last year that covid does not play to Johnson's strengths either.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,454
    alex_ said:

    I still don’t really understand South Korea (not that I’ve made any effort to). They consistently have between c.4-700 cases a day but never more or less. Which suggests that their R number has basically been exactly 1 for weeks. Which in the U.K. we would be saying leaves the situation on a knife edge. And their number of deaths fluctuates between 4 and 9 a day. I don’t understand how they can be controlling it that well, without it ever breaking upwards - or moving towards elimination.
    Spying on your every move allows you to do proper contact tracing and thus can get on top of a cluster early. Also they wear masks everywhere and I believe a range of rules to limit spread that people stick to.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Traditional culture will mean much less when voters' wallets are ravaged by higher taxes, higher interest rates and faster inflation.

    This is the next big debate. It will be the economy and living standards.
    Will a party calling for even more expenditure and even higher taxes and even faster greening benefit from the discontent?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    kinabalu said:

    Didn't realize either he or isam were banned? How would one know if a poster is banned as opposed to just not choosing to post?
    My understanding is that the first rule of the ban hammer is that you don't talk about the ban hammer.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    Floater said:

    i see the bloodbath for Labour continues apace

    Tories plus 17 in Rotherham

    Cannock Chase gained by tories

    I lived in Rotherham. My son lives in Rotherham. Its a classic example of a town absolutely left to rot with a labour council that is happy to blame the Tories as it presides over a mess.

    Not remotely surprised the Tories are taking a wrecking ball to their arrogance. Not that they can - or will want to - fix what is wrong with the town.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Also G. Brown was nowhere near as popular/competent as the media kept telling everyone he was.
    The hype was Brown had a towering intellect. Actually he was th8ck as f8ck. His UK gold sale alone cost the country billions.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    Stocky said:

    I don't agree with this.

    The first referendum would be indicative, i.e. for Scots to express a wish that terms be investigated and negotiated in advance of a final decision being made, so that they know of the practicalities and outcomes involved upfront.

    Then a 2nd referendum would determine the final outcome with the electorate having been furnished with the information necessary to make an enlightened choice.
    But that steers massively to "Yes" in the first. It's like not having it. So you're back (effectively) to just the the one real vote - on the deal. Which is the scenario I first addressed. The negotiations would lack political imperative and genuine balance of power, things which can only come from separation first being democratically mandated. Vote for Indy, then the Scottish govt thrashes out the best deal it can get from Westminster. This has all the downsides we know and (don't) love, but I can't see any other way in practice for it to handled.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Fishing said:

    The history of New Labour was them being too clever by half, and it backfiring badly:

    - Scottish devolution
    - dodgy dossiers
    - financial regulation
    - mass immigration to "rub the right's noses in diversity"
    - allowing a house price boom to placate middle England but pricing the young out of the market
    - letting Northern Irish terrorists turn into gangsters to keep them quiet

    etc etc etc.

    Unfortunately for the country, they were not nearly as clever as they thought they were.
    One of the main advantages to Scotland falling off would be to kick the faltering Labour Party's walking stick away. How soon we forget 2017! We came within a hair's breadth of having Prime Minister Corbyn propped up by the SNP. The best insurance against a future far left Government in England: get shot of the Scottish MPs.

    Of course, you could argue that if we had an English Parliament, equity would be restored to the Union and an accommodation between a Labour minority and Scottish nationalism at UK level wouldn't be half so destructive. But we're not getting an English Parliament, so we must deal with the reality of things as they are. Separation is therefore best for everyone, except Labour which richly deserves to suffer the consequences of the hubristic imbecility of Blair, Brown, Dewar and all the rest of them.

    The Labour Party killed Britain. It deserves to be thrown into the grave along with it.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    43% = powerful new mandate to get Brexit done
    47% = now is not the time
    The difference is that the former already had the 50% vote in favour. The SNP are looking for justification to pursue the holding of such a vote. And on the grounds that there is fundamental change that means the verdict of 7 years ago is no longer sustainable.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,499

    Also G. Brown was nowhere near as popular/competent as the media kept telling everyone he was.
    He had the right personality type to be chancellor (into detail, comes across as dull and competent), but totally unsuited to be Prime Minister, where you need to be flashy and willing to do things on the fly. In that respect, he and Blair were well-cast. I think Starmer is much more like Brown - would be decent as a senior Cabinet Minister, but totally unsuited to be PM/LotO.
This discussion has been closed.