In retrospect, it is now obvious that one of the worst of the many failings of the Corbynites was the total lack of attention to any strategic thinking about what was happening in the ‘left behind’ areas.
Senior Shaun Bailey source tells Guido off the back of this, “it’s closer than everyone thinks. Still a long way to go though, but Shaun will have beaten the polls by a fair whack”
In retrospect, it is now obvious that one of the worst of the many failings of the Corbynites was the total lack of attention to any strategic thinking about what was happening in the ‘left behind’ areas.
78% of Bexley & Bromley 78% of West Central (Westminster, Hammersmith, Chelsea, Kensington) 67% of Lambeth & Southwark 64% of Brent & Harrow 60% of North East (Islington and Waltham Forest) 59% of Ealing & Hillingdon 54% of Havering & Redbridge (from the constituency result looks it is from Havering rather than Redbridge)
That is massively closer than the polls were indicating. Really surprising although some of the best parts for the Tories have the highest percentages.
My son is my main representative amongst the younger people of London and he tells me that loads of them have gone Binface 1st pref then Khan on the 2nd. Far fewer have gone Binface, Bailey - since there's a reluctance to do two joke candidates.
Starmer sounded totally off the wall in his interview earlier - his minders should never have let him go on - he was totally shouty, shouty and saying nothing.
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Was that a big personal vote for you then, H? Or was it all party?
Much as I would like to think it was a personal vote for me no it was really an excellent campaign all round from the Tory team in Epping and Theydon Bois and across the Epping Forest district
And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:
Turkey Maldives Nepal
The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
Does anyone know why there was a potentially fake news headline today saying 1 in 1,000 people have Covid-19? According to the Zoe app, the estimated number of people with the virus is 15,055 which would be about 1 in 4,500.
And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:
Turkey Maldives Nepal
The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
In a totally O/t post aimed at nature lovers, the Bluetit in our Tv=cam nest box has hatched two of her seven eggs. Dad has appeared and is busily helping in the feeding.
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Was that a big personal vote for you then, H? Or was it all party?
Much as I would like to think it was a personal vote for me no it was really an excellent campaign all round from the Tory team in Epping and Theydon Bois and across the Epping Forest district
In a totally O/t post aimed at nature lovers, the Bluetit in our Tv=cam nest box has hatched two of her seven eggs. Dad has appeared and is busily helping in the feeding.
They need a ridiculous number of moth larvae to feed them (mostly Winter and November Moth). (From memory, blue tits consume 30 billion of them.) I hope they are having better luck finding them than I am. Saw my first of the year today.
Epping Forest was parliamentary constituency of Winston Churhill 1924-45.
Am sure that Sir Winston's ghost is smiling at your victory in his old patch. And in a good way!
The Prime Minister failed to persuade the constituency to deselect Winston Churchill. Boris was far more efficient in purging his opponents but of course he had Stalin to learn from.
In a totally O/t post aimed at nature lovers, the Bluetit in our Tv=cam nest box has hatched two of her seven eggs. Dad has appeared and is busily helping in the feeding.
They need a ridiculous number of moth larvae to feed them (mostly Winter and November Moth). (From memory, blue tits consume 30 billion of them.) I hope they are having better luck finding them than I am. Saw my first of the year today.
Do you expect them to be a month late like everything else, or have they been frozen?
Starmer sounded totally off the wall in his interview earlier - his minders should never have let him go on - he was totally shouty, shouty and saying nothing.
Can someone please explain with the Scottish AMS system does the SNP taking East Lothian (from South Scotland region) probably mean that the SNP will lose one of their three List MSPs they had? Or does it not work that way?
Yes, almost certainly so there is no net gain for them. If they were to pick up another constituency such as Dumfries as well they probably would have an overall gain.
Not neccessarily - Winning another FPTP seat compared with 2016, everything else being the same, would still keep SNP above SCON for 7th allocated seat and therefore winning 3 list seats. I make it they would have 5,753 regional votes (across 9 constituencies!) advantage - it's that close.
In a totally O/t post aimed at nature lovers, the Bluetit in our Tv=cam nest box has hatched two of her seven eggs. Dad has appeared and is busily helping in the feeding.
They need a ridiculous number of moth larvae to feed them (mostly Winter and November Moth). (From memory, blue tits consume 30 billion of them.) I hope they are having better luck finding them than I am. Saw my first of the year today.
Do you expect them to be a month late like everything else, or have they been frozen?
Like Mark I am a 'moth-er'. In fact it was Mark who got me started in the hobby. What I am seeing further north (Mark is down in the South West I believe) is that the cold nights are having a severe impact on moth activity. In early March I was seeing close to 100 specimens a night on a warm night but in April on the rare occasions it warmed up to the point it was worth putting the trap out the results were very poor. Almost a whole month of frost seems to have hit everything very hard.
I am hoping they will recover okay. The Winter/November moths were out flying at the end of last year so hopefully they were not too disrupted by this unusually cold spring. But I am worried about the species that should be flying right now and also about the bats that will be relying on them for food.
I have between 10 and 15 pairs of bluetits nesting on my land at present so I will keep an eye out and see how they are doing. Certainly I have already seen a couple of blue tit fledglings so hopefully they are doing okay.
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
My cousins, the Wake family, have lived there for a while. Area likes to rebel against the government in London almost regardless of what colour it is.
Graun's Libby Brooks making an interesting point about the high turnout in Scotland -
1m 1/2 Thinking aloud on Scotland's high (yippee!) turnout: early analysis will focus on which parties most successfully GOTV & suggest this is about both voters' enthusiasm for indyref2, and those determined to stop it. But could it also be a **vote of confidence** in Holyrood... Libby Brooks @libby_brooks Replying to @libby_brooks 2/2 ...after a year plus of (not so) subtle threats to devolution via UKIM, Cummings, Johnson calling Scottish devolution "a disaster", added to its handling of pandemic? Did this cut through enough for high turnout to also be a message to Westminster: "hands off our parliament"?
That's a bit out there as a theory isn't it? My folks (and I'm sure they're not alone) regard Holyrood as a joke, filled with low calibre people who are doing a terrible job running the country (Education, Health etc.).
Surely this election was more or less entirely about sending messages re Indyref2 and that's what drove turnout?
Your folks are obviously out of touch with reality and the joke is on them.
C'mon, Malc, how can they be out of touch with reality? They live in Scotland so they live the reality every day. I do agree with you about one thing - the joke is on them ... not very funny though.
If they don't like the heat get out of the kitchen I say, given all the advantages and still whinging.
Comments
SNP has 3 list seats in the region.
That'd be a second in Southern Scotland. Weird system that it probably leaves SNP up 1 seat, because they've gained 2 if that happens.
Lab +7.7
Con +9
Plaid -1.9
LD -3.3
UKIP -13.1
Labour majority is 14.1%
With eleven having declared, results are:
CON: 10 (+8)
LDEM: 1 (-1)
LAB: 0 (-7)
I’ve just realised as I swipe down on my iPhone on pb, I occasionally “off topic” as well as “like” random posts.
Nothing personal if I’ve done it to you!
So Sadiq should be ok.
@BallotBoxScot
·
1m
SNP HOLD Renfrewshire North and West (West)
Natalie Don elected as MSP, succeeding Derek Mackay who had been an Independent for the last year of the term following a scandal.
Turkey
Maldives
Nepal
The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
New Thread
So yes.
Very pleased for you.
Who as quite a politically-engaged Bishop and therefore on-topic.
Did a lot wrt Protestant - Roman-Catholic relations in Liverpool alongside Archbishop Derek Worlock.
I am hoping they will recover okay. The Winter/November moths were out flying at the end of last year so hopefully they were not too disrupted by this unusually cold spring. But I am worried about the species that should be flying right now and also about the bats that will be relying on them for food.
I have between 10 and 15 pairs of bluetits nesting on my land at present so I will keep an eye out and see how they are doing. Certainly I have already seen a couple of blue tit fledglings so hopefully they are doing okay.