- Conservative vote up almost everywhere, as UKIP/BXP break decisively for them - Labour being pummelled, particularly in the North East - LibDems have had a mixed night, with losses in Leave-y parts of the country somewhat offset by gains against Lab in the NE and Cons in the Home Counties - SNP... too early to tell, but at best flat on 2016
- Conservative vote up almost everywhere, as UKIP/BXP break decisively for them - Labour being pummelled, particularly in the North East - LibDems have had a mixed night, with losses in Leave-y parts of the country somewhat offset by gains against Lab in the NE and Cons in the Home Counties - SNP... too early to tell, but at best flat on 2016
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.
The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.
Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.
Straight into the elephant trap.
I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.
On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.
I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
- Conservative vote up almost everywhere, as UKIP/BXP break decisively for them - Labour being pummelled, particularly in the North East - LibDems have had a mixed night, with losses in Leave-y parts of the country somewhat offset by gains against Lab in the NE and Cons in the Home Counties - SNP... too early to tell, but at best flat on 2016
Labour did better than expected in Newcastle
Maybe I should have said "outside of the big Cities"
University towns and city centres do not equal a majority.
An issue is that the Remain vote was very concentrated while the Leave one was spread more evenly
Population shifts of the young are quite a trend. Youngsters leave towns like Hartlepool for University and do not return. The country as a whole is ageing, but this is particularly so in small and medium sized towns.
- Conservative vote up almost everywhere, as UKIP/BXP break decisively for them - Labour being pummelled, particularly in the North East - LibDems have had a mixed night, with losses in Leave-y parts of the country somewhat offset by gains against Lab in the NE and Cons in the Home Counties - SNP... too early to tell, but at best flat on 2016
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
"Stormed out" might be a bit harsh, losing your seat is incredibly hard. It's a rejection of all the effort youve put in over the years. The last thing she will want is for people to gloat when all she will want to do is cry.
I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.
The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.
Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.
Straight into the elephant trap.
I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.
On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.
I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
There's a long way to go, but we could easily see the SNP hold firm and the sock puppets make progress on the list, so there'll end up being a bigger independence majority than before. Quelle surprise. The doom loop continues.
But if the SNP just tread water it's another reason for Boris to say NO (he will say NO anyway). There is no surge for independence, blah blah, build back better, let's focus on recovery
There's not going to be another referendum for the foreseeable
Wait till we see the List. Not surte how that will pan out.
If it continues as we are and SNP win almost all constituency seats it will be a disaster for unionists.
Trouble is, Malcolm, once the List is added it's not looking great for an overall majority. Drifted to about 5 in the betting now. In which case, rather a Blue day (in both senses).
"Stormed out" might be a bit harsh, losing your seat is incredibly hard. It's a rejection of all the effort youve put in over the years. The last thing she will want is for people to gloat when all she will want to do is cry.
Oh come on, she’s a modern politician who plays the game. No,sympathy.
‘Nicola Sturgeon now tells BBC: "A majority has always been a very, very long shot"’
Ah, thats a giveaway...
If this is the result, Sturgeon shy of a maj, nothing for Alba, London will breathe a big sigh of relief
They will (somewhat disingenuously because the Greens want an IndyRef) say “she asked for a majority and she didn’t get it, so we’re not giving her a referendum”. Tenuous but it will do for them.
I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.
The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.
Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.
Straight into the elephant trap.
I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.
On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.
I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
That is insane. If you want to give money away...
Why do you say that? You think there's a big chance of Johnson and/or Starmer being replaced before the GE?
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
He'd be a decent choice, but in my view he's very much a lightweight. The most likely person in the Labour party to persuade me by argument is probably Hilary Benn. The most likely via razzmatazz is Alinn-Khan.
Burnham, Balls, David Milliband - all seem great when at long distance. Not so sure when they're there though.
Happily I'm a Tory voter though. Quite sunny today!
Not sure if it's been commented on, but in England it does look as if Labour is losing some votes to the Greens, especially in the cities - e.g. Sheffield, maybe London, so far. I thought this would happen - largely younger, pro-Corbyn people disgruntled with the new regime going Green, I suspect.
A smaller challenge for Labour than the loss of the WWC to the Tories, but a further problem to solve.
I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.
The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.
Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.
Straight into the elephant trap.
I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.
On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.
I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
Brave call. But interesting that so far the only voices raised against have come from the Corbynites. I think that would suggest he’s safe for now.
And really, oh superforecaster, who would want to bet against you now?
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Well that's not my experience.
Also "a woman". Any old woman?
There is a very pleasant old "bag lady" I sometimes chat to who would probably be an improvement on Corbyn
(apols for the un-PC language in the interests of humour)
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
He'd be a decent choice, but in my view he's very much a lightweight. The most likely person in the Labour party to persuade me by argument is probably Hilary Benn. The most likely via razzmatazz is Alinn-Khan.
Burnham, Balls, David Milliband - all seem great when at long distance. Not so sure when they're there though.
Happily I'm a Tory voter though. Quite sunny today!
I thought the same back in 2015 but he seems to have grown into his own as mayor of Manchester.
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.
Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
Mulitple elections happening at the same time. Ordinarily things are staggered, add to the excessive covid restrictions and on top of that the various forms of non fptp voting systems used.
For instance a ward in hartlepool would have three members up for election on a single fptp ballet. You need to divide all the papers up by those who choose a slate and then all and every variation possible. Then youve got two supplementary votes one or the mayor and one for the pcc and then you have the parliamentary seat.
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
It's a while since I was there, but even a decade ago, Ely was turning into Cambridge overspill, thanks to the train line.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.
Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
That's the official line but I cannot see why wearing a mask would slow the count, or why the Sunderland team had to walk and not run.
The restrictions within venues are slowing things a bit, but the biggest impact is that distanced counting means fewer counting tables and counting staff
On the island they started the verification at 9.30 this morning, and have only just finished it. Now counting can start (after a short break)
Careful. You will trigger the pb teachers if being too close to 30 others in the same room is officially dangerous.
We know it’s potentially dangerous. It’s those stupid fuckers at the DfE that think it’s safe.*
Fortunately, the level of virus is sufficiently low now that it turned out to be much less risky than we feared, although a couple of my colleagues have still had the plague since we went back.
*These are also people who think that exam criteria are best set by civil servants, that ‘safeguarding’ is something you do to your career and that there are 18 weeks between 1st September and 25th December. So they are clearly a bit dim.
Considering all the brickbats flung between factions this Spring, standing still is pretty impressive. Interesting to see how the SGreens do in the list vote.
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
Labour didn't stand a candidate in some of the wards.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Well that's not my experience.
Also "a woman". Any old woman?
There is a very pleasant old "bag lady" I sometimes chat to who would probably be an improvement on Corbyn
(apols for the un-PC language in the interests of humour)
Tweet from Stephen Bush: Sunderland results continue to have very little to do with its Brexit position! The local Lb Dems don't run on Brexit, but on the poor Ofsted rating for local services, the convicted paedophile ex-councillor & the former council leader who may or may not have murdered someone.
I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.
The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.
Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.
Straight into the elephant trap.
I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.
On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.
I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
I concur. So long as he survives, his odds are bound to come in at some stage.
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
Labour didn't stand a candidate in some of the wards.
Based on this (from 768 Lab maj to 366 Con maj), it would look like Wrexham (1,325 Lab maj in 2016) and Vale of Glamorgan (777 Lab majority in 2016) are the ones to watch, while Delyn (3,582 maj) and Clwyd South (3,016 maj) shouldn't be too problematic for Labour.
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
Labour didn't stand a candidate in some of the wards.
Considering all the brickbats flung between factions this Spring, standing still is pretty impressive. Interesting to see how the SGreens do in the list vote.
This is only a part of one regional list obvs, but that SG vote is up and into seat-catching zone (depends on how the sums pan out).
Ballot Box Scotland @BallotBoxScot · 3m Aberdeen Donside (North East) List Vote:
SNP ~ 16233 (45.2%, -6.7) Con ~ 8849 (24.6%, +5.8) Lab ~ 5283 (14.7%, -2.1) Green ~ 1764 (4.9%, +1.5) LD ~ 1728 (4.8%, -0.5) Alba ~ 743 (2.1%, +2.1) AFU ~ 225 (0.6%, +0.6) Others ~ 1126 (3.1%, -0.8)
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
It's a while since I was there, but even a decade ago, Ely was turning into Cambridge overspill, thanks to the train line.
Pretty, relatively pricey housing, definitely Pale of Cambridge. Deep Fenland geographically, culturally not so much.
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
It's a while since I was there, but even a decade ago, Ely was turning into Cambridge overspill, thanks to the train line.
It is tempting to say that only Labour voters can afford to live in Cambridge nowadays; but as it happens the wealthier bits, which were safe Tory back in my day, are the bits of the city where the LibDems have hung on.
On a quick look at the results so far, Labour look set to be down about four seats in Wales, depending on the lists.
I said months ago the Liberal Democrats were going to be wiped out. I’m happy with that prediction still.
I think the alarming thing for Labour is that while UKIP/Brexit votes are moving to them in the Valleys, it looks as though they’re going the other way elsewhere. They are picking up votes from the Liberal Democrats but there are too few of those in the right places to make a substantial difference.
Whatever the result of this election they need to come up with a way to reverse that, but how they will do it in a coalition with Plaid Cymru is anyone’s guess.
I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.
The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.
Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.
Straight into the elephant trap.
I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.
On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.
I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
That is insane. If you want to give money away...
Why do you say that? You think there's a big chance of Johnson and/or Starmer being replaced before the GE?
Yes, particularly Starmer, but if it were that two, Starmer would still lose.
Comments
https://www.londonelects.org.uk
It looks as if the site was pulled for a couple of hours so MI5 could insert handfuls of ballots filled in for Sadiq Khan.
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney
Lab 61.5 (+14.3)
Plaid 17.5 (-0.5)
Con 12.6 (+6.2)
- Conservative vote up almost everywhere, as UKIP/BXP break decisively for them
- Labour being pummelled, particularly in the North East
- LibDems have had a mixed night, with losses in Leave-y parts of the country somewhat offset by gains against Lab in the NE and Cons in the Home Counties
- SNP... too early to tell, but at best flat on 2016
Edit: but just one constituency area.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.
I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
For those not watching Scotland closely, "at the moment" means after 9 of 73 constituency declarations, so it's still early
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1390674656949047307?s=20
Morale completely on the floor.
Socialist Mark Drakeford the only bright spot
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1390679698921902082
@BallotBoxScot
·
5m
Falkirk East (Central) Constituency Vote:
SNP ~ 18417 (47.4%, -4)
Labour ~ 10832 (27.9%, +2)
Conservative ~ 7618 (19.6%, +0.1)
Lib Dem ~ 1007 (2.6%, -0.6)
Independent ~ 971 (2.5%, +2.5)
And that question is the problem....
Also "a woman". Any old woman?
Tory gain from Lab by 366
Burnham, Balls, David Milliband - all seem great when at long distance. Not so sure when they're there though.
Happily I'm a Tory voter though. Quite sunny today!
A smaller challenge for Labour than the loss of the WWC to the Tories, but a further problem to solve.
And really, oh superforecaster, who would want to bet against you now?
(apols for the un-PC language in the interests of humour)
For instance a ward in hartlepool would have three members up for election on a single fptp ballet. You need to divide all the papers up by those who choose a slate and then all and every variation possible. Then youve got two supplementary votes one or the mayor and one for the pcc and then you have the parliamentary seat.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1390681109210533889?s=20
Fortunately, the level of virus is sufficiently low now that it turned out to be much less risky than we feared, although a couple of my colleagues have still had the plague since we went back.
*These are also people who think that exam criteria are best set by civil servants, that ‘safeguarding’ is something you do to your career and that there are 18 weeks between 1st September and 25th December. So they are clearly a bit dim.
Paul McLennan elected as MSP, seeing off Labour's Martin Whitfield who sought to replace Iain Gray.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1390681293902557186?s=20
Ballot Box Scotland
@BallotBoxScot
·
3m
Aberdeen Donside (North East) List Vote:
SNP ~ 16233 (45.2%, -6.7)
Con ~ 8849 (24.6%, +5.8)
Lab ~ 5283 (14.7%, -2.1)
Green ~ 1764 (4.9%, +1.5)
LD ~ 1728 (4.8%, -0.5)
Alba ~ 743 (2.1%, +2.1)
AFU ~ 225 (0.6%, +0.6)
Others ~ 1126 (3.1%, -0.8)
"What was the SNP's only gain in the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary elections?"
"Ah, the old East Lothian question"
I said months ago the Liberal Democrats were going to be wiped out. I’m happy with that prediction still.
I think the alarming thing for Labour is that while UKIP/Brexit votes are moving to them in the Valleys, it looks as though they’re going the other way elsewhere. They are picking up votes from the Liberal Democrats but there are too few of those in the right places to make a substantial difference.
Whatever the result of this election they need to come up with a way to reverse that, but how they will do it in a coalition with Plaid Cymru is anyone’s guess.
SNP: 48.6% (+2.9)
CON: 38.7% (+1.4)
LAB: 7.6% (-1.8)
LDEM: 5.1% (-2.6)
SNP HOLD.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390682078015070213?s=20
Davey, relieved
Sturgeon, disappointed
Starmer, devestated
Sound about right?
Con +5
Lab +0.5
Plaid +2.7
LD -0.1