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Not all parts are following the national trend – this is Cambridgeshire – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 7 in General
imageNot all parts are following the national trend – this is Cambridgeshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    University towns and city centres do not equal a majority.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    First, like Mr Swinney.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812
    This is part of the new national trend - swing Lab to Con is proportional to distance from London. Often literal physical distance, occasionally "thematic" distance, ie how much the area resembles Liberal Metropolitan Elite-land.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Local circumstances - "Farmgate Scandal" - whatever that was!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103
    Just heard someone on Radio 5 try to spin the same line - the way he phrased it was that ub Leave areas Labour are doung terribly, in Remain areas Labour are doing not quite so badly.
    I get the point he was making, but the crumbs of comfort felt a little scant.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    Labour are down 91 councillors in 25 councils. Still at risk of 400+ losses, even if things are a bit better in the south.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    DavidL said:

    Labour are down 91 councillors in 25 councils. Still at risk of 400+ losses, even if things are a bit better in the south.

    Still think my 200-250 Labour losses might be a decent shout.....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.

    The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.

    Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.

    Straight into the elephant trap.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    UKIP votes shared out (Basildon Pitsea (Essex) )

    Con: 45.9% (+8.7)
    Lab: 41.8% (+5.4)
    Oth: 6.4% (+4.2)
    LDem: 5.8% (+0.9)

    No UKIP (-19.2) as prev.

    Con HOLD (X1)
    Lab HOLD (X1)
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198

    Local circumstances - "Farmgate Scandal" - whatever that was!

    It sounds worthy of more investigation as it seems to relate to former deputy leader Roger Hickford acquiring a county council farm tenancy followed by the council spending money to improve the farm.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164

    DavidL said:

    Labour are down 91 councillors in 25 councils. Still at risk of 400+ losses, even if things are a bit better in the south.

    Still think my 200-250 Labour losses might be a decent shout.....
    Maybe. It is truly remarkable that they are having net losses at all.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198

    I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.

    The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.

    Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.

    Straight into the elephant trap.

    I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Gasman said:

    There is probably some analysis to be done, but this sounds more than a little desperate to find some bad news for the Conservatives.

    "A terrrrrrrrrible night for Boris Johnson....."

    lol....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Conservative GAIN Westcourt (Gravesham) from Labour

    The Labour leader of Sheffield City Council has lost his seat to the Greens
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,844
    DavidL said:

    University towns and city centres do not equal a majority.

    An issue is that the Remain vote was very concentrated while the Leave one was spread more evenly
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    Tiger Patel got quite the swing

    Blackburn with Darwen
    Audley and Queen's Park
    ​​​​​
    ​​​​​
    PARTY PCT. CHG.
    ⬤ Con 52.5 +38.1
    ⬤ Lab 47.5 -23.5

    https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/19286385.tiger-patel-viral-sensation-triumphs-blackburn-council-election/
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,042
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour are down 91 councillors in 25 councils. Still at risk of 400+ losses, even if things are a bit better in the south.

    Still think my 200-250 Labour losses might be a decent shout.....
    Maybe. It is truly remarkable that they are having net losses at all.
    Absolutely, this thread header is a bit daft, all Councils should be showing tory losses, we are 11 years into a Tory Government, even Blair had big Council seat losses at the height of New Labour
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Graun's Libby Brooks making an interesting point about the high turnout in Scotland -

    1m
    1/2 Thinking aloud on Scotland's high (yippee!) turnout: early analysis will focus on which parties most successfully GOTV & suggest this is about both voters' enthusiasm for indyref2, and those determined to stop it. But could it also be a **vote of confidence** in Holyrood...
    Libby Brooks
    @libby_brooks
    Replying to
    @libby_brooks
    2/2 ...after a year plus of (not so) subtle threats to devolution via UKIM, Cummings, Johnson calling Scottish devolution "a disaster", added to its handling of pandemic? Did this cut through enough for high turnout to also be a message to Westminster: "hands off our parliament"?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour are down 91 councillors in 25 councils. Still at risk of 400+ losses, even if things are a bit better in the south.

    Still think my 200-250 Labour losses might be a decent shout.....
    Maybe. It is truly remarkable that they are having net losses at all.
    Absolutely, this thread header is a bit daft, all Councils should be showing tory losses, we are 11 years into a Tory Government, even Blair had big Council seat losses at the height of New Labour
    On the plus side things can only get better for Labour. Probably. Maybe. Dunno.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Chameleon said:

    Tiger Patel got quite the swing

    Blackburn with Darwen
    Audley and Queen's Park
    ​​​​​
    ​​​​​
    PARTY PCT. CHG.
    ⬤ Con 52.5 +38.1
    ⬤ Lab 47.5 -23.5

    https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/19286385.tiger-patel-viral-sensation-triumphs-blackburn-council-election/

    Talking of high profile candidates, I wonder how the fantastic Ms Jiyhun Park got on in Bury...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164

    DavidL said:

    University towns and city centres do not equal a majority.

    An issue is that the Remain vote was very concentrated while the Leave one was spread more evenly
    Yes, that is a major headache for SKS and the Lib Dems. If much of the midlands and north turn Tory it is very difficult to see where SKS gets his majority from.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Conservative GAIN Bishop Middleham & Cornforth (County Durham) from Labour.

    Third Labour loss in Durham.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    edited May 7
    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719
    eek said:

    Local circumstances - "Farmgate Scandal" - whatever that was!

    It sounds worthy of more investigation as it seems to relate to former deputy leader Roger Hickford acquiring a county council farm tenancy followed by the council spending money to improve the farm.
    CB1 bubble story, nobody is interested, everyone expects politicians to be sleazy...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,147
    Chameleon said:

    Tiger Patel got quite the swing

    Blackburn with Darwen
    Audley and Queen's Park
    ​​​​​
    ​​​​​
    PARTY PCT. CHG.
    ⬤ Con 52.5 +38.1
    ⬤ Lab 47.5 -23.5

    https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/19286385.tiger-patel-viral-sensation-triumphs-blackburn-council-election/

    Hopefully the swings will get an upgrade shortly.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390667572119486465

    Sheffield results starting to come in - big Green gain in Hillsborough here, toppling the council leader:

    Grn: 41.4% (+26.9)
    Lab: 35.6% (-11.0)
    Con: 16.0% (+9.1)
    LDem: 5.6% (-4.6)
    Oth: 1.4% (-1.5)

    No UKIP (-18.9)

    Grn GAIN from Lab
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Thanks for helping us keep close Tabs on developments in Cambridgeshire...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    Banffshire and Buchan another seat with a clear Unionist majority held by the SNP, just. Big, big swing though.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 795
    Tories have run the Nats very close indeed in Banff and Buchan Coast
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812
    Gasman said:

    There is probably some analysis to be done, but this sounds more than a little desperate to find some bad news for the Conservatives.

    As a Conservative, I'm good with this, and much prefer cautious introspection to triumphalism preceding an inevitable fall.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour are down 91 councillors in 25 councils. Still at risk of 400+ losses, even if things are a bit better in the south.

    Still think my 200-250 Labour losses might be a decent shout.....
    Maybe. It is truly remarkable that they are having net losses at all.
    Absolutely, this thread header is a bit daft, all Councils should be showing tory losses, we are 11 years into a Tory Government, even Blair had big Council seat losses at the height of New Labour
    On the plus side things can only get better for Labour. Probably. Maybe. Dunno.
    "things can only get better"?

    Catchy - they should adopt it as a slogan......
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 795
    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    AberdeenshireCouncil
    @Aberdeenshire
    ·
    47s
    Karen Adam (SNP) 14,920
    Jason Duncan (Freedom Alliance Integrity, Society, Economy) 347
    Mark Findlater (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 14,148
    David Philip McHutchon (Restore Scotland) 331
    Alison Simpson (Scottish Lib Dem) 1,071
    Georgia Strachan (Scottish Labour) 2,169
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 619
    I thought this _was_ the national trend? Highly remain-y places turn away from the Tories. Everywhere else (including only moderately remain-y places) turn away from Labour.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,980
    Most Brexity area of Scotland. Close shave but high watermark for Hartlepoolism north of the border?

    https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1390668139759816707?s=21
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    In some parts of Cambridgeshire Labour didn't put up a candidate.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    BREAKING: Labour request recount at Vale of Clwyd, with Conservatives apparently ahead
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,980
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    But not the setbacks you were predicting so far?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    There's a long way to go, but we could easily see the SNP hold firm and the sock puppets make progress on the list, so there'll end up being a bigger independence majority than before. Quelle surprise. The doom loop continues.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Cicero said:

    Tories have run the Nats very close indeed in Banff and Buchan Coast

    Indeed, but BBC's Philip Sim reckoned it was unusual - will be interesting to see if he is right.
    hilip Sim
    @BBCPhilipSim
    ·
    21m
    Banffshire and Buchan Coast was a huge outlier in terms of the % of people signing up for postal votes compared to 2016 turnout. Was a 23% SNP majority but potential for something unusual to happen there if a different cohort of voters turns out - as happened to WM seat in 2017
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    edited May 7

    Most Brexity area of Scotland. Close shave but high watermark for Hartlepoolism north of the border?

    https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1390668139759816707?s=21

    Not to mention all those predictions of fisherfolk rallying to the Johnsonian banner of Brexit. But also interesting that there is not much swing from Labour or LD (partly admittedly cos hardly anyone voted for them comparatively anyway).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    There's a long way to go, but we could easily see the SNP hold firm and the sock puppets make progress on the list, so there'll end up being a bigger independence majority than before. Quelle surprise. The doom loop continues.
    But if the SNP just tread water it's another reason for Boris to say NO (he will say NO anyway). There is no surge for independence, blah blah, build back better, let's focus on recovery

    There's not going to be another referendum for the foreseeable
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    Carnyx said:

    AberdeenshireCouncil
    @Aberdeenshire
    ·
    47s
    Karen Adam (SNP) 14,920
    Jason Duncan (Freedom Alliance Integrity, Society, Economy) 347
    Mark Findlater (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 14,148
    David Philip McHutchon (Restore Scotland) 331
    Alison Simpson (Scottish Lib Dem) 1,071
    Georgia Strachan (Scottish Labour) 2,169

    Yet another example of the inefficiency of the Unionist vote helping out the SNP.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,047
    edited May 7
    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    (*except in France, where the national declaration takes 10 seconds IIRC so the rest of the evening can be spent on the serious business of consuming millions of gallons of champagne).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited May 7
    On topic: no results from Hertfordshire yet but it's possible that the Lib Dems might make modest progress in the more posh remainer parts of the county, too. However, the Tories are immensely strong and may be able to pillage some of the surviving Labour seats as well, so not much change likely around here.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    edited May 7
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    AberdeenshireCouncil
    @Aberdeenshire
    ·
    47s
    Karen Adam (SNP) 14,920
    Jason Duncan (Freedom Alliance Integrity, Society, Economy) 347
    Mark Findlater (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 14,148
    David Philip McHutchon (Restore Scotland) 331
    Alison Simpson (Scottish Lib Dem) 1,071
    Georgia Strachan (Scottish Labour) 2,169

    Yet another example of the inefficiency of the Unionist vote helping out the SNP.
    Wait till we see the List; this is only half of the story. Splitting the Unionist vote was at the core of the Labour-LD attempt to blockade independence forever with their voting system at Holyrood.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    Carnyx said:

    Graun's Libby Brooks making an interesting point about the high turnout in Scotland -

    1m
    1/2 Thinking aloud on Scotland's high (yippee!) turnout: early analysis will focus on which parties most successfully GOTV & suggest this is about both voters' enthusiasm for indyref2, and those determined to stop it. But could it also be a **vote of confidence** in Holyrood...
    Libby Brooks
    @libby_brooks
    Replying to
    @libby_brooks
    2/2 ...after a year plus of (not so) subtle threats to devolution via UKIM, Cummings, Johnson calling Scottish devolution "a disaster", added to its handling of pandemic? Did this cut through enough for high turnout to also be a message to Westminster: "hands off our parliament"?

    That's a bit out there as a theory isn't it? My folks (and I'm sure they're not alone) regard Holyrood as a joke, filled with low calibre people who are doing a terrible job running the country (Education, Health etc.).

    Surely this election was more or less entirely about sending messages re Indyref2 and that's what drove turnout?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Counter intuitive

    Barnfield (Hyndburn) council result:

    Lab: 52.2% (+8.6)
    Con: 47.8% (+0.8)

    No UKIP (-9.3) as prev.

    Lab GAIN from Con
    More:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,047

    Liverpool Labour seeking to replace disgraced former Mayor Joe Anderson with their new candidate Jo Anderson.

    Is this some sort of Bugs Bunny disguise?

    You couldn't make that up – well you could, but it would be rejected as a plot device for being too fanciful.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    There's a long way to go, but we could easily see the SNP hold firm and the sock puppets make progress on the list, so there'll end up being a bigger independence majority than before. Quelle surprise. The doom loop continues.
    But if the SNP just tread water it's another reason for Boris to say NO (he will say NO anyway). There is no surge for independence, blah blah, build back better, let's focus on recovery

    There's not going to be another referendum for the foreseeable
    Wait till we see the List. Not surte how that will pan out.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    ridaligo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Graun's Libby Brooks making an interesting point about the high turnout in Scotland -

    1m
    1/2 Thinking aloud on Scotland's high (yippee!) turnout: early analysis will focus on which parties most successfully GOTV & suggest this is about both voters' enthusiasm for indyref2, and those determined to stop it. But could it also be a **vote of confidence** in Holyrood...
    Libby Brooks
    @libby_brooks
    Replying to
    @libby_brooks
    2/2 ...after a year plus of (not so) subtle threats to devolution via UKIM, Cummings, Johnson calling Scottish devolution "a disaster", added to its handling of pandemic? Did this cut through enough for high turnout to also be a message to Westminster: "hands off our parliament"?

    That's a bit out there as a theory isn't it? My folks (and I'm sure they're not alone) regard Holyrood as a joke, filled with low calibre people who are doing a terrible job running the country (Education, Health etc.).

    Surely this election was more or less entirely about sending messages re Indyref2 and that's what drove turnout?
    My folk certainly disagree. But it's worth pointing out that the Tories have become to some extent a de facto Abolish Holyrood Party with the statements and obiter dicta of Mr Johnson.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Is this true?

    Plaid’s
    @LeanneWood
    has lost her seat.

    I hear she’s stormed out of the counting hall.

    https://twitter.com/DrGABaines/status/1390667301754703872
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 33,746
    Cicero said:

    Tories have run the Nats very close indeed in Banff and Buchan Coast

    If you read the papers tomorrow you will see they lost, despite help from the other unionists. Whitewash looking as if it is on, Lib Dems will not even need a tandem
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 795
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    There's a long way to go, but we could easily see the SNP hold firm and the sock puppets make progress on the list, so there'll end up being a bigger independence majority than before. Quelle surprise. The doom loop continues.
    But if the SNP just tread water it's another reason for Boris to say NO (he will say NO anyway). There is no surge for independence, blah blah, build back better, let's focus on recovery

    There's not going to be another referendum for the foreseeable
    Wait till we see the List. Not surte how that will pan out.
    I dont think the total list vote will be higher for the SNP, the Alba message might help the Greens, but not the Nats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    AberdeenshireCouncil
    @Aberdeenshire
    ·
    47s
    Karen Adam (SNP) 14,920
    Jason Duncan (Freedom Alliance Integrity, Society, Economy) 347
    Mark Findlater (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 14,148
    David Philip McHutchon (Restore Scotland) 331
    Alison Simpson (Scottish Lib Dem) 1,071
    Georgia Strachan (Scottish Labour) 2,169

    Yet another example of the inefficiency of the Unionist vote helping out the SNP.
    Wait till we see the List; this is only half of the story. Splitting the Unionist vote was at the core of the Labour-LD attempt to blockade independence forever with their voting system at Holyrood.
    It does look as if the Unionist vote in going to be up on the list but the SNP are not particularly vulnerable there because of the number of constituency seats they get.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 33,746
    ridaligo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Graun's Libby Brooks making an interesting point about the high turnout in Scotland -

    1m
    1/2 Thinking aloud on Scotland's high (yippee!) turnout: early analysis will focus on which parties most successfully GOTV & suggest this is about both voters' enthusiasm for indyref2, and those determined to stop it. But could it also be a **vote of confidence** in Holyrood...
    Libby Brooks
    @libby_brooks
    Replying to
    @libby_brooks
    2/2 ...after a year plus of (not so) subtle threats to devolution via UKIM, Cummings, Johnson calling Scottish devolution "a disaster", added to its handling of pandemic? Did this cut through enough for high turnout to also be a message to Westminster: "hands off our parliament"?

    That's a bit out there as a theory isn't it? My folks (and I'm sure they're not alone) regard Holyrood as a joke, filled with low calibre people who are doing a terrible job running the country (Education, Health etc.).

    Surely this election was more or less entirely about sending messages re Indyref2 and that's what drove turnout?
    Your folks are obviously out of touch with reality and the joke is on them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    AberdeenshireCouncil
    @Aberdeenshire
    ·
    47s
    Karen Adam (SNP) 14,920
    Jason Duncan (Freedom Alliance Integrity, Society, Economy) 347
    Mark Findlater (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 14,148
    David Philip McHutchon (Restore Scotland) 331
    Alison Simpson (Scottish Lib Dem) 1,071
    Georgia Strachan (Scottish Labour) 2,169

    Yet another example of the inefficiency of the Unionist vote helping out the SNP.
    Wait till we see the List; this is only half of the story. Splitting the Unionist vote was at the core of the Labour-LD attempt to blockade independence forever with their voting system at Holyrood.
    It does look as if the Unionist vote in going to be up on the list but the SNP are not particularly vulnerable there because of the number of constituency seats they get.
    And another quarter of the story (I know that makes 5/4) is what happens with the Greens, Mr Wightman and any Alba-ists on the list.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,047

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
    I keep forgetting that the virus only comes out at night. Soz.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    Labour have lost control of Sheffield - precisely the sort of place the main left of centre alternative in ANY universe should be holding.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Carnyx said:

    First, like Mr Swinney.

    Encouraging to see one of you can count......or maybe not....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    2m
    Rishton (Hyndburn) council result:

    Con: 37.6% (+3.2)
    Lab: 35.5% (-6.2)
    Ind: 23.5% (+23.5)
    RefUK: 2.2% (+2.2)
    LDem: 1.1% (+1.1)

    No UKIP (-23.9) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab
    More:
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 33,746
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    LOL, Hard to do much when you already have most of the seats
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
    I keep forgetting that the virus only comes out at night. Soz.
    Public transport for count staff is also quite a big issue, I expect.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Leon said:

    Counter intuitive

    Barnfield (Hyndburn) council result:

    Lab: 52.2% (+8.6)
    Con: 47.8% (+0.8)

    No UKIP (-9.3) as prev.

    Lab GAIN from Con
    More:

    did they just swap?

    Rishton (Hyndburn) council result:

    Con: 37.6% (+3.2)
    Lab: 35.5% (-6.2)
    Ind: 23.5% (+23.5)
    RefUK: 2.2% (+2.2)
    LDem: 1.1% (+1.1)

    No UKIP (-23.9) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    Ben Houchen has won 68% of the vote in MIDDLESBOROUGH
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
    That's the official line but I cannot see why wearing a mask would slow the count, or why the Sunderland team had to walk and not run.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,147
    @SebastianEPayne
    A sign of what's to come in Tees Valley: @BenHouchen won 46% of the vote in Redcar and 44% in Middlesborough 2017.

    In 2021, I'm told he's won 75% in Redcar and 68% in Middlesborough. Think it's fair to say he's going to win by a landslide.


    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1390672596140797962
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,047
    Radio presenters aren't going to be happy if Ms Jo (without an e) Anderson succeeds Mr Joe (with an e) Anderson in Liverpool. Perhaps it would be easier were she to revert to her full name – Joanne.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
    That's the official line but I cannot see why wearing a mask would slow the count, or why the Sunderland team had to walk and not run.
    Panting in an indoor space.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 33,746
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    There's a long way to go, but we could easily see the SNP hold firm and the sock puppets make progress on the list, so there'll end up being a bigger independence majority than before. Quelle surprise. The doom loop continues.
    But if the SNP just tread water it's another reason for Boris to say NO (he will say NO anyway). There is no surge for independence, blah blah, build back better, let's focus on recovery

    There's not going to be another referendum for the foreseeable
    Wait till we see the List. Not surte how that will pan out.
    If it continues as we are and SNP win almost all constituency seats it will be a disaster for unionists.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    There's a long way to go, but we could easily see the SNP hold firm and the sock puppets make progress on the list, so there'll end up being a bigger independence majority than before. Quelle surprise. The doom loop continues.
    But if the SNP just tread water it's another reason for Boris to say NO (he will say NO anyway). There is no surge for independence, blah blah, build back better, let's focus on recovery

    There's not going to be another referendum for the foreseeable
    And so we enter a long footrace between the SNP/Scottish Green Front in Scotland and the Conservatives in England. Who do the electorate tire of first? If it's the Tories then the SNP almost certainly end up holding the balance of power at Westminster and the referendum is initiated. If it's the SNP/Scottish Greens then whatever Unionist combination supplants it may be able to put the lid on the endless independence argument for a long time.

    Somehow I don't see the SNP being first to trip over their shoelaces. The Yes partisans have made up their minds and will keep voting in an endless series of nationalist majorities until they get what they want.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871
    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    It's not California. ;)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    There's a long way to go, but we could easily see the SNP hold firm and the sock puppets make progress on the list, so there'll end up being a bigger independence majority than before. Quelle surprise. The doom loop continues.
    But if the SNP just tread water it's another reason for Boris to say NO (he will say NO anyway). There is no surge for independence, blah blah, build back better, let's focus on recovery

    There's not going to be another referendum for the foreseeable
    And so we enter a long footrace between the SNP/Scottish Green Front in Scotland and the Conservatives in England. Who do the electorate tire of first? If it's the Tories then the SNP almost certainly end up holding the balance of power at Westminster and the referendum is initiated. If it's the SNP/Scottish Greens then whatever Unionist combination supplants it may be able to put the lid on the endless independence argument for a long time.

    Somehow I don't see the SNP being first to trip over their shoelaces. The Yes partisans have made up their minds and will keep voting in an endless series of nationalist majorities until they get what they want.
    The SNP still have indy to hold their coalition together.
    The Tories will have to start delivering priorities other than Brexit so are vulnerable to splits in the next 5 years or so, in my opinion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354
    edited May 7

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
    That's the official line but I cannot see why wearing a mask would slow the count, or why the Sunderland team had to walk and not run.
    The restrictions within venues are slowing things a bit, but the biggest impact is that distanced counting means fewer counting tables and counting staff

    On the island they started the verification at 9.30 this morning, and have only just finished it. Now counting can start (after a short break)
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 795
    malcolmg said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    LOL, Hard to do much when you already have most of the seats
    Not for much longer Malc... the Nats can probably hold what the have in the constituencies, but the anti Nat vote will be up across the country and you could see some losses in the list. Alba will get zero to one, which is 1% wasted. Indeed the SNP may well need the Greens, who could drive the kind of hard bargain that will be pretty unpopular with non Green voters.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Cambridge has some hot local issues:

    Bringing in a metro system.

    Car vs bike.

    Planning for Oxford to Cambridge train line.

    Tory shires, Lefty cities.

    Fertile ground for insurgents like the LDs.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Glasgow Anniesland is SNP hold.
    More or less same majority as last time.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,484
    DavidL said:

    Banffshire and Buchan another seat with a clear Unionist majority held by the SNP, just. Big, big swing though.

    That is the closest the Tories will get. Its all downhill for them from here on.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Cicero said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    LOL, Hard to do much when you already have most of the seats
    Not for much longer Malc... the Nats can probably hold what the have in the constituencies, but the anti Nat vote will be up across the country and you could see some losses in the list. Alba will get zero to one, which is 1% wasted. Indeed the SNP may well need the Greens, who could drive the kind of hard bargain that will be pretty unpopular with non Green voters.
    Nothing new there - the Scottish Parliament voting system was designed to enforce coalitions, de jure or de facto. It's actually something of an aberration for a party to have a majority.
  • pingping Posts: 1,142
    Snp no maj backed down to 1/5
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,484
    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Houchen has won 68% of the vote in MIDDLESBOROUGH

    He'll clear 70% across the region then or perhaps 75%. I did say the 63% poll was a massive undercall...
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,035

    Cambridge has some hot local issues:

    Bringing in a metro system.

    Car vs bike.

    Planning for Oxford to Cambridge train line.

    Tory shires, Lefty cities.

    Fertile ground for insurgents like the LDs.

    Look at the results before commenting. Lib Dems did badly against Labour in the City but well against the Tories in South and East Cambs.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Houchen has won 68% of the vote in MIDDLESBOROUGH

    He'll clear 70% across the region then or perhaps 75%. I did say the 63% poll was a massive undercall...
    Why is he so popular?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,471
    Gasman said:

    There is probably some analysis to be done, but this sounds more than a little desperate to find some bad news for the Conservatives.

    The vaccination bounce is fading.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Glasgow Anniesland is SNP hold.
    More or less same majority as last time.

    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    2m
    Glasgow Anniesland (Glasgow) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 17501 (52.8%, +1)
    Labour ~ 10913 (32.9%, +2.4)
    Conservative ~ 3688 (11.1%, -2.9)
    Lib Dem ~ 1063 (3.2%, -0.6)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    edited May 7
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Houchen has won 68% of the vote in MIDDLESBOROUGH

    He'll clear 70% across the region then or perhaps 75%. I did say the 63% poll was a massive undercall...
    Why is he so popular?
    Because he has delivered everything he promised and more
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,503
    edited May 7

    @SebastianEPayne
    A sign of what's to come in Tees Valley: @BenHouchen won 46% of the vote in Redcar and 44% in Middlesborough 2017.

    In 2021, I'm told he's won 75% in Redcar and 68% in Middlesborough. Think it's fair to say he's going to win by a landslide.


    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1390672596140797962

    JJJ didn’t press the free Palestine message hard enough, obvs.

    P.S. It’s Middlesbrough.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
    That's the official line but I cannot see why wearing a mask would slow the count, or why the Sunderland team had to walk and not run.
    The restrictions within venues are slowing things a bit, but the biggest impact is that distanced counting means fewer counting tables and counting staff

    On the island they started the verification at 9.30 this morning, and have only just finished it. Now counting can start (after a short break)
    Careful. You will trigger the pb teachers if being too close to 30 others in the same room is officially dangerous.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Cockermouth North (Cumbria) council result:

    Con: 41.3% (+11.4)
    Lab: 28.0% (+1.1)
    LDem: 21.0% (-18.8)
    Grn: 6.9% (+3.5)
    Ind: 2.8% (+2.8)

    Con GAIN from LDem

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    (*except in France, where the national declaration takes 10 seconds IIRC so the rest of the evening can be spent on the serious business of consuming millions of gallons of champagne).
    Partially it's just that FPTP is easy to count. Every other system is harder, due to multiple ballot papers or counts, or extra systems to determine who gets in and where.

    Also note Scotland and London are the key places letting the side down right now, aka Remain Central. So, all the EU's fault as per usual.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    St Oswald's (Hyndburn) council result:

    Con: 50.8% (+18.2)
    Lab: 46.3% (+6.7)
    LDem: 2.9% (+2.9)

    No UKIP (-27.8)

    Con GAIN from Lab
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,614
    Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.

    Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.

    I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Newtown and Morton North (Carlisle) council result:

    Con: 49.3% (+26.2)
    Lab: 42.8% (+5.3)
    Grn: 5.6% (-10.4)
    Oth: 2.2% (+2.2)

    No UKIP (-23.3) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 7,934
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
    There's a long way to go, but we could easily see the SNP hold firm and the sock puppets make progress on the list, so there'll end up being a bigger independence majority than before. Quelle surprise. The doom loop continues.
    But if the SNP just tread water it's another reason for Boris to say NO (he will say NO anyway). There is no surge for independence, blah blah, build back better, let's focus on recovery

    There's not going to be another referendum for the foreseeable
    Wait till we see the List. Not surte how that will pan out.
    If it continues as we are and SNP win almost all constituency seats it will be a disaster for unionists.
    How do you feel about your undying love and loyalty for a man that was described by his own QC as a "bully and a sex pest"? Role model for you? I mean we know that nationalists are generally bullies, but is it a requirement for Alba followers to turn a blind eye to people who are sex pests if it is for the greater good for "Freeeedom"?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354
    List count for Aberdeen donside , first count, Alba got 2%. Salmond out?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    Floater said:

    Is this true?

    Plaid’s
    @LeanneWood
    has lost her seat.

    I hear she’s stormed out of the counting hall.

    https://twitter.com/DrGABaines/status/1390667301754703872

    Not seen any official confirmation yet but it will be hilarious if it is true. She is a very, very nasty, unpleasant individual.
This discussion has been closed.