The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
Added an exclamation mark after 'Fuck' and 'is great' after 'Brexit' to their leftover 2019 election leaflets?
"Stormed out" might be a bit harsh, losing your seat is incredibly hard. It's a rejection of all the effort youve put in over the years. The last thing she will want is for people to gloat when all she will want to do is cry.
Replying to @BBCPhilipSim The idea of an SNP majority hinges entirely on eight or nine marginal constituency seats they're targeting. East Lothian was one of them, and significantly one where they won't lose a list seat in the swings and roundabouts. Big, big win for the SNP...
Ooh, a Tory has been elected in Sheffield! Not their old havens in Dore, Ecclesall or Fulwood, but Stocksbridge - semi detached from the city, heavily working class. A small town within the city boundaries - typically red wall.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Well that's not my experience.
Also "a woman". Any old woman?
There is a very pleasant old "bag lady" I sometimes chat to who would probably be an improvement on Corbyn
(apols for the un-PC language in the interests of humour)
Failed on both counts, sorry.
Oh, what a shame. Failed. Just like Corbyn. And Labour. Must try harder.
Here is a theory. It has probably been noticed that I am not a fan of Mr. Johnson. I fail to see his appeal, but your post has just enlightened me. The Labour Party has no sense of humour. The Tory Party does. They put a clown in as leader. That is what the Labour Party must do. They had a good go with Corbyn. I mean the man was a joke, but they got it slightly wrong as he was not funny (anti Semitism definitely not funny!). Johnson is both things. He is a joke and he is funny.
Based on this (from 768 Lab maj to 366 Con maj), it would look like Wrexham (1,325 Lab maj in 2016) and Vale of Glamorgan (777 Lab majority in 2016) are the ones to watch, while Delyn (3,582 maj) and Clwyd South (3,016 maj) shouldn't be too problematic for Labour.
Alyn and Deeside might have an atypical swing. Depends on how the locals feel about Mr J. Sargeant’s use of the courts to block an inquiry into his father’s suicide.
Vale of Glamorgan might be an easier hold than Clwyd South due to its proximity to Cardiff. Equally, Ken Skates is pretty high profile and that should help him.
We've yet to see a scottish result where the Scottish Green Party is standing a candidate in a, SNP-held green-friendly area. A strong Unionist tactical vote allied to an SNP to Green swing could make things interesting - watch for Edinburgh N
Seems like it's a great night for the Tories, a slightly underwhelming one for the SNP, a mixed one for the Lib Dems and an awful one for Labour.
If I were Johnson, I'd be elated. Davey, relieved Sturgeon, disappointed Starmer, devestated
Sound about right?
In sme ways, it's shame Swinson lost her seat and Johnson didn't have to stand down after his Covid scare. If only because we might have a fully alliterative choice of leaders: Sunak, Swinson, Sturgeon or Starmer
Tweet from Stephen Bush: Sunderland results continue to have very little to do with its Brexit position! The local Lb Dems don't run on Brexit, but on the poor Ofsted rating for local services, the convicted paedophile ex-councillor & the former council leader who may or may not have murdered someone.
Tweet from Stephen Bush: Sunderland results continue to have very little to do with its Brexit position! The local Lb Dems don't run on Brexit, but on the poor Ofsted rating for local services, the convicted paedophile ex-councillor & the former council leader who may or may not have murdered someone.
Bloody hell, that’s dark!
Labour entrenched in local power is rarely a pretty sight, but that is somewhat darker than usual, for sure.
In retrospect, it is now obvious that one of the worst of the many failings of the Corbynites was the total lack of attention to any strategic thinking about what was happening in the ‘left behind’ areas.
Khan is the big Labour winner on the scene - time for him to follow Boris and go from MoL to leader..
That answer has the same flaw the Andy Burnham odds had earlier today. The candidate has to be an existing MP and neither of these options are...
Khan is, in my view, nailed on to return as an MP either shortly before or soon after his new term as London Mayor expires (I'm not actually sure if that will be in 2024 or 2025). Either way, he will want to be an MP again after the 2024 GE, so that he is well-placed to succeed either Starmer, or Starmer's successor (or I guess it's possible Labour will go through more than one more leader between now and then).
No idea about Burnham. He's the same age as Khan, and seemed to leave Parliament as much to get away from Corbynism (which clearly was out of line with his Blairite tendencies) as personal ambition. Possibly he'll feel the party has been sufficiently changed as to allow him to lead it, in which case he could take the same route. Possibly he will have had enough by then, or will just seek a third term in Manchester.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Well that's not my experience.
Also "a woman". Any old woman?
There is a very pleasant old "bag lady" I sometimes chat to who would probably be an improvement on Corbyn
(apols for the un-PC language in the interests of humour)
Failed on both counts, sorry.
Oh, what a shame. Failed. Just like Corbyn. And Labour. Must try harder.
Here is a theory. It has probably been noticed that I am not a fan of Mr. Johnson. I fail to see his appeal, but your post has just enlightened me. The Labour Party has no sense of humour. The Tory Party does. They put a clown in as leader. That is what the Labour Party must do. They had a good go with Corbyn. I mean the man was a joke, but they got it slightly wrong as he was not funny (anti Semitism definitely not funny!). Johnson is both things. He is a joke and he is funny.
I probably managed to offend all sides there!
I think you are right. As another one who doesn't like Johnson and would not vote for him, I think his appeal lies in appearing to be more human than politician. I say appearing as I believe he is a thoroughly devious and disreputable politician and the 'human' stuff is just a clever act. But he is good at it. And as such people relate to him where they cannot relate to the more general political species.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
He’s promising to change the things that need changing, and to learn the lessons that need learning.
Good for him.
This is the stop where I leave the Starmer bus.
Im going green.
Things are, apparently, going to be hugely different going forward. Although maybe with the same policies and the same team. But otherwise, big changes are coming....
I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.
A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
It's a while since I was there, but even a decade ago, Ely was turning into Cambridge overspill, thanks to the train line.
Pretty, relatively pricey housing, definitely Pale of Cambridge. Deep Fenland geographically, culturally not so much.
Culturally it used to be pretty Fenny. I worked there in the late '90s; there were a lot of verging-on-Norfolk accents, and the only time that anyone from Cambridge ever ventured there was to change trains or to sing at the Cathedral (because Cambridge, unlike Oxford, doesn't pretend to have a cathedral).
But as @Stuartinromford says, it's become much, much more Cambridge commuter territory recently, encouraged by Cambridge's ridiculous house prices and a much improved train service. There's even a fair amount of Ely-London commuting.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Well that's not my experience.
Also "a woman". Any old woman?
There is a very pleasant old "bag lady" I sometimes chat to who would probably be an improvement on Corbyn
(apols for the un-PC language in the interests of humour)
Failed on both counts, sorry.
Oh, what a shame. Failed. Just like Corbyn. And Labour. Must try harder.
Here is a theory. It has probably been noticed that I am not a fan of Mr. Johnson. I fail to see his appeal, but your post has just enlightened me. The Labour Party has no sense of humour. The Tory Party does. They put a clown in as leader. That is what the Labour Party must do. They had a good go with Corbyn. I mean the man was a joke, but they got it slightly wrong as he was not funny (anti Semitism definitely not funny!). Johnson is both things. He is a joke and he is funny.
I probably managed to offend all sides there!
Boring to pursue, but I suspect it's you who has the humour bypass. My response to you was a gentle 'joke'. But hey ho.
I think you're right. Starmer doesn't have the respect nor the vision to pull Labour from the mire.
He’s going nowhere.
Well quite.
Trouble is that, from where I'm standing (i.e. pining for the days when I could taunt lefties because righties weren't so awful), the logic that led to Starmer's election last year still stands.
I can imagine SKS as Prime Minister. Maybe not a great one, but a plausible one. Most of the alternatives bandied about, great campaigners but PM material... not so sure. And many of those who might have been on the leadership track have gone to the backbenches, or cities and regions, or out of politics, thanks to the clustershambles of the last decade.
It's not a problem unique to the left... Hague '97 was right man, far too early. IDS, puulease. And yes, BoJo is a joke, but he was up against an even more absurd possibility.
I don't know how to solve that problem. The nearest I can come up with is SKS as Kenneth Horne- the calm frontman, the centre of the show, around who the louder characters orbit. Are Labour as whole- let alone the wider anti-Johnson galaxy- up for that? I don't know, though I doubt it from where I'm looking.
Seems like it's a great night for the Tories, a slightly underwhelming one for the SNP, a mixed one for the Lib Dems and an awful one for Labour.
If I were Johnson, I'd be elated. Davey, relieved Sturgeon, disappointed Starmer, devestated
Sound about right?
In sme ways, it's shame Swinson lost her seat and Johnson didn't have to stand down after his Covid scare. If only because we might have a fully alliterative choice of leaders: Sunak, Swinson, Sturgeon or Starmer
I was going to "like" this post but when I checked the 2 who had I saw "Foss" and "Foxy".
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
I layed Starmer on that basis last time around! Jess Phillips would have made things more interesting, might have been much worse or much better, but certainly more interesting.
I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
LOL, Hard to do much when you already have most of the seats
Not for much longer Malc... the Nats can probably hold what the have in the constituencies, but the anti Nat vote will be up across the country and you could see some losses in the list. Alba will get zero to one, which is 1% wasted. Indeed the SNP may well need the Greens, who could drive the kind of hard bargain that will be pretty unpopular with non Green voters.
I think you're right. Starmer doesn't have the respect nor the vision to pull Labour from the mire.
He’s going nowhere.
Well quite.
Trouble is that, from where I'm standing (i.e. pining for the days when I could taunt lefties because righties weren't so awful), the logic that led to Starmer's election last year still stands.
I can imagine SKS as Prime Minister. Maybe not a great one, but a plausible one. Most of the alternatives bandied about, great campaigners but PM material... not so sure. And many of those who might have been on the leadership track have gone to the backbenches, or cities and regions, or out of politics, thanks to the clustershambles of the last decade.
It's not a problem unique to the left... Hague '97 was right man, far too early. IDS, puulease. And yes, BoJo is a joke, but he was up against an even more absurd possibility.
I don't know how to solve that problem. The nearest I can come up with is SKS as Kenneth Horne- the calm frontman, the centre of the show, around who the louder characters orbit. Are Labour as whole- let alone the wider anti-Johnson galaxy- up for that? I don't know, though I doubt it from where I'm looking.
An Ed Balls BoJo match up would have been interesting
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.
Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
Mulitple elections happening at the same time. Ordinarily things are staggered, add to the excessive covid restrictions and on top of that the various forms of non fptp voting systems used.
For instance a ward in hartlepool would have three members up for election on a single fptp ballet. You need to divide all the papers up by those who choose a slate and then all and every variation possible. Then youve got two supplementary votes one or the mayor and one for the pcc and then you have the parliamentary seat.
Can remember back in November 2020, when multiple voices here were saying the stupid Americans need to put races for president, congress, whatever on separate ballots to speed the count!
East Lothian is in South of Scotland where SNP DOES have (three) list seats.
So they might lose the third of their list seats netting out at zero change?
Yep,. that's possible.
James Kelly @JamesKelly SNP gain East Lothian - a South Scotland seat so the gain may be cancelled out on the list, but psychologically important. #sp21
I think you're right. Starmer doesn't have the respect nor the vision to pull Labour from the mire.
He’s going nowhere.
Well quite.
Trouble is that, from where I'm standing (i.e. pining for the days when I could taunt lefties because righties weren't so awful), the logic that led to Starmer's election last year still stands.
I can imagine SKS as Prime Minister. Maybe not a great one, but a plausible one. Most of the alternatives bandied about, great campaigners but PM material... not so sure. And many of those who might have been on the leadership track have gone to the backbenches, or cities and regions, or out of politics, thanks to the clustershambles of the last decade.
It's not a problem unique to the left... Hague '97 was right man, far too early. IDS, puulease. And yes, BoJo is a joke, but he was up against an even more absurd possibility.
I don't know how to solve that problem. The nearest I can come up with is SKS as Kenneth Horne- the calm frontman, the centre of the show, around who the louder characters orbit. Are Labour as whole- let alone the wider anti-Johnson galaxy- up for that? I don't know, though I doubt it from where I'm looking.
An Ed Balls BoJo match up would have been interesting
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Well that's not my experience.
Also "a woman". Any old woman?
There is a very pleasant old "bag lady" I sometimes chat to who would probably be an improvement on Corbyn
(apols for the un-PC language in the interests of humour)
Failed on both counts, sorry.
Oh, what a shame. Failed. Just like Corbyn. And Labour. Must try harder.
Here is a theory. It has probably been noticed that I am not a fan of Mr. Johnson. I fail to see his appeal, but your post has just enlightened me. The Labour Party has no sense of humour. The Tory Party does. They put a clown in as leader. That is what the Labour Party must do. They had a good go with Corbyn. I mean the man was a joke, but they got it slightly wrong as he was not funny (anti Semitism definitely not funny!). Johnson is both things. He is a joke and he is funny.
I probably managed to offend all sides there!
I think you are right. As another one who doesn't like Johnson and would not vote for him, I think his appeal lies in appearing to be more human than politician. I say appearing as I believe he is a thoroughly devious and disreputable politician and the 'human' stuff is just a clever act. But he is good at it. And as such people relate to him where they cannot relate to the more general political species.
To twist a phrase, maybe it is enough to fool enough of the people enough of the time. It was said that Blair was a good actor. I believe both Eton and Fetes have wonderful drama facilities.
I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.
Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
I keep forgetting that the virus only comes out at night. Soz.
Public transport for count staff is also quite a big issue, I expect.
I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
Julian Clary would be quite original I think.
Don't be silly, he meant John Curtice.
Well, if we’re talking comedians how about Jasper Carrott?
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
Fortunately, just so happens that the best candidates are now women: Rayner, Nandy, Phillips.
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.
Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
I keep forgetting that the virus only comes out at night. Soz.
Public transport for count staff is also quite a big issue, I expect.
Timetables are almost back to normal in Scotland.
In tdhe small hours of the night? OK, maybe I need to take another look at the bus stop.
Seems like it's a great night for the Tories, a slightly underwhelming one for the SNP, a mixed one for the Lib Dems and an awful one for Labour.
If I were Johnson, I'd be elated. Davey, relieved Sturgeon, disappointed Starmer, devestated
Sound about right?
To the tune of Whiskey in the Jar:
If I were Boris Johnson, I would be elated If I were Keir starmer, well I'd be devastated Disapointed if I were Sturgeon, Unknown if I were Davey. But I'd be storming out if I was that there Welsh Lady
Mush a ring dum a do dum a da Results grim for Labour Results grim for Labour Is it over for Star-mer?
We knew they were our voters, we took them all for granted We knew they were our voters, but now they've all departed They swore that they were Labour and they'd never leave us But the devil take yon Boris, he wooed them with a red bus
Mush a ring dum a do dum a da Results grim for Labour Results grim for Labour Is it over for Star-mer?
I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
Julian Clary would be quite original I think.
YES! What a great suggestion. That would fulfil the suggestion that I made further down thread about Labour needing to follow the Tory lead and have someone who is a joke and is funny at the same time. People will probably be a lot more comfortable nowadays about jokes about fisting the chancellor of the exchequer
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Some big regional differences, but overall Nats are making no progress.
LOL, Hard to do much when you already have most of the seats
Not for much longer Malc... the Nats can probably hold what the have in the constituencies, but the anti Nat vote will be up across the country and you could see some losses in the list. Alba will get zero to one, which is 1% wasted. Indeed the SNP may well need the Greens, who could drive the kind of hard bargain that will be pretty unpopular with non Green voters.
Dawn Foster @DawnHFoster 7m Jayda Fransen, who Nicola Sturgeon rightly called a racist and fascist on camera yesterday, polls 46 votes at Glasgow Southside and the announcement is met with audible laughter at the count
I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
Julian Clary would be quite original I think.
YES! What a great suggestion. That would fulfil the suggestion that I made further down thread about Labour needing to follow the Tory lead and have someone who is a joke and is funny at the same time. People will probably be a lot more comfortable nowadays about jokes about fisting the chancellor of the exchequer
Well, we had that comedian helping Mr Murphy win the last Scottish election. I forget the person's name - was it E. Izzard?
I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.
The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.
Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.
Straight into the elephant trap.
I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.
On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.
I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
That is insane. If you want to give money away...
Why do you say that? You think there's a big chance of Johnson and/or Starmer being replaced before the GE?
Yes, particularly Starmer, but if it were that two, Starmer would still lose.
Ah ok. But my play (if I'm right) is that when it becomes clear the GE WILL be Johnson v Starmer I'll have a terrific long at 7.4. Because even with the Cons remaining strong favourites, the Starmer price will be much shorter than that.
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.
Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
Mulitple elections happening at the same time. Ordinarily things are staggered, add to the excessive covid restrictions and on top of that the various forms of non fptp voting systems used.
For instance a ward in hartlepool would have three members up for election on a single fptp ballet. You need to divide all the papers up by those who choose a slate and then all and every variation possible. Then youve got two supplementary votes one or the mayor and one for the pcc and then you have the parliamentary seat.
Can remember back in November 2020, when multiple voices here were saying the stupid Americans need to put races for president, congress, whatever on separate ballots to speed the count!
If it weren’t for COVID precautions (American’s voice off: “what are they?”) we’d be doing this at 2am last night.
Comments
Any PBers willing to offer he a shoulder to cry on?
The idea of an SNP majority hinges entirely on eight or nine marginal constituency seats they're targeting. East Lothian was one of them, and significantly one where they won't lose a list seat in the swings and roundabouts. Big, big win for the SNP...
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1390682818905354243?s=20
Here is a theory. It has probably been noticed that I am not a fan of Mr. Johnson. I fail to see his appeal, but your post has just enlightened me. The Labour Party has no sense of humour. The Tory Party does. They put a clown in as leader. That is what the Labour Party must do. They had a good go with Corbyn. I mean the man was a joke, but they got it slightly wrong as he was not funny (anti Semitism definitely not funny!). Johnson is both things. He is a joke and he is funny.
I probably managed to offend all sides there!
Vale of Glamorgan might be an easier hold than Clwyd South due to its proximity to Cardiff. Equally, Ken Skates is pretty high profile and that should help him.
Eh?
He’s promising to change the things that need changing, and to learn the lessons that need learning.
Who do you want to replace him?
https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1390677730568572932
No idea about Burnham. He's the same age as Khan, and seemed to leave Parliament as much to get away from Corbynism (which clearly was out of line with his Blairite tendencies) as personal ambition. Possibly he'll feel the party has been sufficiently changed as to allow him to lead it, in which case he could take the same route. Possibly he will have had enough by then, or will just seek a third term in Manchester.
This is the stop where I leave the Starmer bus. I lent Liam Byrne my 2nd vote in the WM mayoralty. That will be the last time I vote Labour I think.
Im going fully green for now on.
"This goes beyond personalities.
This goes beyond a reshuffle."
Wild screams on the floor
"Keir looking shocked and stressed"
Nothing of substance to say.
But as @Stuartinromford says, it's become much, much more Cambridge commuter territory recently, encouraged by Cambridge's ridiculous house prices and a much improved train service. There's even a fair amount of Ely-London commuting.
I can imagine SKS as Prime Minister. Maybe not a great one, but a plausible one. Most of the alternatives bandied about, great campaigners but PM material... not so sure. And many of those who might have been on the leadership track have gone to the backbenches, or cities and regions, or out of politics, thanks to the clustershambles of the last decade.
It's not a problem unique to the left... Hague '97 was right man, far too early. IDS, puulease. And yes, BoJo is a joke, but he was up against an even more absurd possibility.
I don't know how to solve that problem. The nearest I can come up with is SKS as Kenneth Horne- the calm frontman, the centre of the show, around who the louder characters orbit. Are Labour as whole- let alone the wider anti-Johnson galaxy- up for that? I don't know, though I doubt it from where I'm looking.
SNP hold (Sturgeon v Sarwar) 19k v 10k
She is such a class act.
Overall net swing in Scotland so far is pretty minimal
So I wasn't going to ruin that.
SNP +9.5
Lab -3.6
https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/1390685274984919044?s=20
Sarwar bus misfiring
@BallotBoxScot
·
11m
East Lothian (South) Constituency Vote:
SNP ~ 17968 (39.2%, +4.4)
Labour ~ 16789 (36.7%, -1.1)
Conservative ~ 9470 (20.7%, -3.2)
Lib Dem ~ 1556 (3.4%, -0.1)
#SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
Not sure how that tactical voting business works there.
Much penitence for ever doubting
19% swing LD to SNP - but LD hold
James Kelly
@JamesKelly
SNP gain East Lothian - a South Scotland seat so the gain may be cancelled out on the list, but psychologically important. #sp21
The Post Office are talking about 500 additional miscarriage of Justice cases
https://twitter.com/nickwallis/status/1390655924830879751
If I were Boris Johnson, I would be elated
If I were Keir starmer, well I'd be devastated
Disapointed if I were Sturgeon, Unknown if I were Davey.
But I'd be storming out if I was that there Welsh Lady
Mush a ring dum a do dum a da
Results grim for Labour
Results grim for Labour
Is it over for Star-mer?
We knew they were our voters, we took them all for granted
We knew they were our voters, but now they've all departed
They swore that they were Labour and they'd never leave us
But the devil take yon Boris, he wooed them with a red bus
Mush a ring dum a do dum a da
Results grim for Labour
Results grim for Labour
Is it over for Star-mer?
Bit early to be on the drink, surely?
Khan 38
Bailey 37
Dawn Foster
@DawnHFoster
7m
Jayda Fransen, who Nicola Sturgeon rightly called a racist and fascist on camera yesterday, polls 46 votes at Glasgow Southside and the announcement is met with audible laughter at the count
We'll see!