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Not all parts are following the national trend – this is Cambridgeshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Cons asking for a recount in Ayr - ouch.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090

    In retrospect, it is now obvious that one of the worst of the many failings of the Corbynites was the total lack of attention to any strategic thinking about what was happening in the ‘left behind’ areas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartlepool_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#/media/File:Hartlepool_vote_share_graph.png

    "Your preoccupation with the working-class vote is wrong. They've got nowhere to go” - Peter Mandelson to Peter Hain, 1999
    May have applied in 1999. It certainly didn’t by the time Corbyn became leader in 2015. Ed Balls had just lost his seat.
    Ironic that Jezza saw himself - and still does - as a working class hero. Sort of a Rocky as yard gnome.

    But the actual working class was as attracted to him, as Superman is to kryptonite.
    Did ok at GE17 though. Early Corbyn was his best work. Debut album had some strong tracks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,585
    ydoethur said:

    Wow, Cardiff Central now topping the turnout tables - 64%.

    That’s got to be good for Labour, surely.

    Or Plaid?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    edited May 2021
    ..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow, Cardiff Central now topping the turnout tables - 64%.

    That’s got to be good for Labour, surely.

    Or Plaid?
    Can’t see it, but you never know.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Ayr is also in South of Scotland so ultimately may not make any difference.

    SNP has 3 list seats in the region.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Cons asking for a recount in Ayr - ouch.

    Ruh-roh.

    That'd be a second in Southern Scotland. Weird system that it probably leaves SNP up 1 seat, because they've gained 2 if that happens.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,748
    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20

    Whatever they're on, could I have some please?

    Unrelated good news: two-thirds of the adult population of the UK have now had their first Covid jab.
    66.6% no less

    What will the....errr... religiously interesting types make of that?
    And somewhere, the spirit of David Shepherd is lifting a foot.
    The elephant and locomotive painter?
    Well, who knows? But I was thinking of the umpire :smile:
    Ah, I hadn't heard of him! Elephant lifting a foot was all I coiuld imagine. And I was intrigued.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,515

    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20

    On a personal note, I have £20 on Bailey winning at 50/1.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,907
    Floater said:

    As you were...

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1390689259368194061

    Senior Shaun Bailey source tells Guido off the back of this, “it’s closer than everyone thinks. Still a long way to go though, but Shaun will have beaten the polls by a fair whack”

    But what about Brian Rose.....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    MikeL said:

    Ayr is also in South of Scotland so ultimately may not make any difference.

    SNP has 3 list seats in the region.

    Doesn't that depend on if SNP voters vote Green on the list?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,394
    kinabalu said:

    In retrospect, it is now obvious that one of the worst of the many failings of the Corbynites was the total lack of attention to any strategic thinking about what was happening in the ‘left behind’ areas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartlepool_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#/media/File:Hartlepool_vote_share_graph.png

    "Your preoccupation with the working-class vote is wrong. They've got nowhere to go” - Peter Mandelson to Peter Hain, 1999
    May have applied in 1999. It certainly didn’t by the time Corbyn became leader in 2015. Ed Balls had just lost his seat.
    Ironic that Jezza saw himself - and still does - as a working class hero. Sort of a Rocky as yard gnome.

    But the actual working class was as attracted to him, as Superman is to kryptonite.
    Did ok at GE17 though. Early Corbyn was his best work. Debut album had some strong tracks.
    Many of them successfully covered by another guy in 2019.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Delyn changes are

    Lab +7.7
    Con +9
    Plaid -1.9
    LD -3.3
    UKIP -13.1

    Labour majority is 14.1%
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,744

    Binface has won a moral victory in London.

    So long as he collects his spoils.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,330
    MikeL said:

    Lab win Delyn today pretty easily - whereas Con won at 2019 GE.

    Seems very poor for Con.

    Sleazy Tories on the slide
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702

    MikeL said:

    Ayr is also in South of Scotland so ultimately may not make any difference.

    SNP has 3 list seats in the region.

    Doesn't that depend on if SNP voters vote Green on the list?
    Oh sure - assumes List votes same as last time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Turkey and a few other countries added to the red list.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Labour defending seven of the twelve seats up in Grimsby and Cleethorpes this year.

    With eleven having declared, results are:

    CON: 10 (+8)
    LDEM: 1 (-1)
    LAB: 0 (-7)
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Btw apologies.

    I’ve just realised as I swipe down on my iPhone on pb, I occasionally “off topic” as well as “like” random posts.

    Nothing personal if I’ve done it to you!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Portugal, Gibraltar, Israel and 9 unnamed other places.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,122
    The word on the street in Remainia is that Count Binface and Piers Corbyn are tied on 1% - I don't know if this is correct.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    ping said:

    Btw apologies.

    I’ve just realised as I swipe down on my iPhone on pb, I occasionally “off topic” as well as “like” random posts.

    Nothing personal if I’ve done it to you!

    You can un-off topic by tapping again.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,748
    This thread has fallen off the bottom of the list in the bastardised d'Hondt system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,749
    edited May 2021
    Conservatives hold Aberconwy with a majority of 3,336 over PC
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,007
    MikeL said:

    Lab win Delyn today pretty easily - whereas Con won at 2019 GE.

    Seems very poor for Con.

    We've won Nut Nut's dog???
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Omnium said:

    Binface has won a moral victory in London.

    So long as he collects his spoils.
    I like the way he trash talks the opposition
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,761

    Khan 39% Bailey 37% is with results from

    78% of Bexley & Bromley
    78% of West Central (Westminster, Hammersmith, Chelsea, Kensington)
    67% of Lambeth & Southwark
    64% of Brent & Harrow
    60% of North East (Islington and Waltham Forest)
    59% of Ealing & Hillingdon
    54% of Havering & Redbridge (from the constituency result looks it is from Havering rather than Redbridge)

    That is massively closer than the polls were indicating. Really surprising although some of the best parts for the Tories have the highest percentages.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345

    Portugal, Gibraltar, Israel and 9 unnamed other places.

    Is this the trick? We can travel to these places, but only if we find out where they are?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    edited May 2021
    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, approx 70% done.

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    Binface?
    A popular receptacle for protest votes?
    My son is my main representative amongst the younger people of London and he tells me that loads of them have gone Binface 1st pref then Khan on the 2nd. Far fewer have gone Binface, Bailey - since there's a reluctance to do two joke candidates.

    So Sadiq should be ok.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,075
    MikeL said:

    BBC suggesting Con may well lose Ayr.

    I went from thinking that the Nats would be down 2 over all, now I think they will be up 3.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Ditto Lab win Wrexham after Con win it at 2019 GE.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,907

    Portugal, Gibraltar, Israel and 9 unnamed other places.

    Airbridge 2.0....just no.....this is a terrible idea
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,748
    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    1m
    SNP HOLD Renfrewshire North and West (West)

    Natalie Don elected as MSP, succeeding Derek Mackay who had been an Independent for the last year of the term following a scandal.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    felix said:

    Starmer sounded totally off the wall in his interview earlier - his minders should never have let him go on - he was totally shouty, shouty and saying nothing.

    Like Johnson then. If you can't beat them ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,749
    Labour hold Wrexham with a majority of 1,350 over the Tories
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,007
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.

    The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes

    Was that a big personal vote for you then, H? Or was it all party?
    Much as I would like to think it was a personal vote for me no it was really an excellent campaign all round from the Tory team in Epping and Theydon Bois and across the Epping Forest district
    Well done HY. But don't go power-mad!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,907
    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,749
    edited May 2021
    SNP hold Rutherglen, SNP up 4% and Labour up 3%, so a 0.8% swing to the SNP
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,515
    Does anyone know why there was a potentially fake news headline today saying 1 in 1,000 people have Covid-19? According to the Zoe app, the estimated number of people with the virus is 15,055 which would be about 1 in 4,500.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,749
    Ayr and Dumbarton possibly going to recounts
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,785

    New Thread

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,515
    HYUFD said:

    Labour hold Wrexham with a majority of 1,350 over the Tories

    Are Labour heading for less than 30 seats? I can't tell yet.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,160

    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?

    Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,406
    In a totally O/t post aimed at nature lovers, the Bluetit in our Tv=cam nest box has hatched two of her seven eggs. Dad has appeared and is busily helping in the feeding.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    edited May 2021
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.

    The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes

    Was that a big personal vote for you then, H? Or was it all party?
    Much as I would like to think it was a personal vote for me no it was really an excellent campaign all round from the Tory team in Epping and Theydon Bois and across the Epping Forest district
    I can smell false modesty a mile off - :smile:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,500

    In a totally O/t post aimed at nature lovers, the Bluetit in our Tv=cam nest box has hatched two of her seven eggs. Dad has appeared and is busily helping in the feeding.

    They need a ridiculous number of moth larvae to feed them (mostly Winter and November Moth). (From memory, blue tits consume 30 billion of them.) I hope they are having better luck finding them than I am. Saw my first of the year today.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090

    Khan won't win at the first stage this time - which way will the binface votes go ?

    To Khan, I think, but who knows. One thing is for certain - Binface is kingmaker.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,796

    Epping Forest was parliamentary constituency of Winston Churhill 1924-45.

    Am sure that Sir Winston's ghost is smiling at your victory in his old patch. And in a good way!

    The Prime Minister failed to persuade the constituency to deselect Winston Churchill. Boris was far more efficient in purging his opponents but of course he had Stalin to learn from.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090

    I am thinking of starting a Truth and Decency party.

    Has a "Polish Alt Right" feel to it, that.

    So yes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,068

    Thread on the EU rejection of UK's suggested "risk based approach" to food standards/SPS in NI; in short "Computer says no":

    https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1390692908815327237?s=20

    Is that not due to an over-reliance on the Precautionary Principle?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Ayr and Dumbarton possibly going to recounts

    Dumbarton going to a recount is a massive surprise. Baille had a big 14% Con vote to squeeze.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,068

    In a totally O/t post aimed at nature lovers, the Bluetit in our Tv=cam nest box has hatched two of her seven eggs. Dad has appeared and is busily helping in the feeding.

    They need a ridiculous number of moth larvae to feed them (mostly Winter and November Moth). (From memory, blue tits consume 30 billion of them.) I hope they are having better luck finding them than I am. Saw my first of the year today.
    Do you expect them to be a month late like everything else, or have they been frozen?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,330

    TOTAL VICTORY

    Whoever flagged that, you are a sad sad man.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    Starmer sounded totally off the wall in his interview earlier - his minders should never have let him go on - he was totally shouty, shouty and saying nothing.

    Like Johnson then. If you can't beat them ...
    He certainly can't beat him......
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dumbarton has only just started counting less than an hour ago. No idea where the idea of a recount is coming from.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,330

    Binface camp confident of coming 5th

    BINFACE!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,330
    @HYUFD many congratulations on your election, dear boy.

    Very pleased for you.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    edited May 2021

    TOTAL VICTORY

    Whoever flagged that, you are a sad sad man.
    The "ping" construct has fessed up to doing it accidentally.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,987
    DavidL said:

    Can someone please explain with the Scottish AMS system does the SNP taking East Lothian (from South Scotland region) probably mean that the SNP will lose one of their three List MSPs they had? Or does it not work that way?

    Yes, almost certainly so there is no net gain for them. If they were to pick up another constituency such as Dumfries as well they probably would have an overall gain.
    Not neccessarily - Winning another FPTP seat compared with 2016, everything else being the same, would still keep SNP above SCON for 7th allocated seat and therefore winning 3 list seats. I make it they would have 5,753 regional votes (across 9 constituencies!) advantage - it's that close.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,068
    edited May 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20

    Whatever they're on, could I have some please?

    Unrelated good news: two-thirds of the adult population of the UK have now had their first Covid jab.
    66.6% no less

    What will the....errr... religiously interesting types make of that?
    And somewhere, the spirit of David Shepherd is lifting a foot.
    The elephant and locomotive painter?
    I think he means the Test Cricketer turned Bishop of Woolwich, Bishop of Liverpool 1975-1997 and then Labour Life Peer. Spelt Sheppard, though.

    Who as quite a politically-engaged Bishop and therefore on-topic.

    Did a lot wrt Protestant - Roman-Catholic relations in Liverpool alongside Archbishop Derek Worlock.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,433
    MattW said:

    In a totally O/t post aimed at nature lovers, the Bluetit in our Tv=cam nest box has hatched two of her seven eggs. Dad has appeared and is busily helping in the feeding.

    They need a ridiculous number of moth larvae to feed them (mostly Winter and November Moth). (From memory, blue tits consume 30 billion of them.) I hope they are having better luck finding them than I am. Saw my first of the year today.
    Do you expect them to be a month late like everything else, or have they been frozen?
    Like Mark I am a 'moth-er'. In fact it was Mark who got me started in the hobby. What I am seeing further north (Mark is down in the South West I believe) is that the cold nights are having a severe impact on moth activity. In early March I was seeing close to 100 specimens a night on a warm night but in April on the rare occasions it warmed up to the point it was worth putting the trap out the results were very poor. Almost a whole month of frost seems to have hit everything very hard.

    I am hoping they will recover okay. The Winter/November moths were out flying at the end of last year so hopefully they were not too disrupted by this unusually cold spring. But I am worried about the species that should be flying right now and also about the bats that will be relying on them for food.

    I have between 10 and 15 pairs of bluetits nesting on my land at present so I will keep an eye out and see how they are doing. Certainly I have already seen a couple of blue tit fledglings so hopefully they are doing okay.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,068
    edited May 2021
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20

    Whatever they're on, could I have some please?

    Unrelated good news: two-thirds of the adult population of the UK have now had their first Covid jab.
    66.6% no less

    What will the....errr... religiously interesting types make of that?
    And somewhere, the spirit of David Shepherd is lifting a foot.
    The elephant and locomotive painter?
    I think he means the Test Cricketer turned Bishop of Woolwich, Bishop of Liverpool 1975-1997 and then Labour Life Peer. Spelt Sheppard, though.

    Who was quite a politically-engaged Bishop and therefore on-topic.

    Did a lot wrt Protestant - Roman-Catholic relations in Liverpool alongside Archbishop Derek Worlock.

    Piccie:


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:



    The electoral map of Cambridgeshire is helpful. Lib Dems win in the south and around Ely.

    A poor show by the LibDems in the residential parts of the city
    Ely is really strange though. It is not quite Wisbech, but it is serious fen country, and therefore, normally very Brexity. It would be interesting to know how the LDs thought they pulled this off.
    My cousins, the Wake family, have lived there for a while. Area likes to rebel against the government in London almost regardless of what colour it is.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,287
    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Hmm some tactical voting there by the look of it.


    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    5m
    North East Fife (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

    Lib Dem ~ 22163 (55.1%, +11.2)
    SNP ~ 14715 (36.6%, +2.9)
    Conservative ~ 2323 (5.8%, -10.8)
    Labour ~ 1056 (2.6%, -3.3)

    Also, the Westminster seat was an LD gain in the 2019 election. And Willie Rennie is (relatively) popular.
    God knows why he is absolutely useless.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,287
    ridaligo said:

    malcolmg said:

    ridaligo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Graun's Libby Brooks making an interesting point about the high turnout in Scotland -

    1m
    1/2 Thinking aloud on Scotland's high (yippee!) turnout: early analysis will focus on which parties most successfully GOTV & suggest this is about both voters' enthusiasm for indyref2, and those determined to stop it. But could it also be a **vote of confidence** in Holyrood...
    Libby Brooks
    @libby_brooks
    Replying to
    @libby_brooks
    2/2 ...after a year plus of (not so) subtle threats to devolution via UKIM, Cummings, Johnson calling Scottish devolution "a disaster", added to its handling of pandemic? Did this cut through enough for high turnout to also be a message to Westminster: "hands off our parliament"?

    That's a bit out there as a theory isn't it? My folks (and I'm sure they're not alone) regard Holyrood as a joke, filled with low calibre people who are doing a terrible job running the country (Education, Health etc.).

    Surely this election was more or less entirely about sending messages re Indyref2 and that's what drove turnout?
    Your folks are obviously out of touch with reality and the joke is on them.
    C'mon, Malc, how can they be out of touch with reality? They live in Scotland so they live the reality every day. I do agree with you about one thing - the joke is on them ... not very funny though.
    If they don't like the heat get out of the kitchen I say, given all the advantages and still whinging.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,287

    Cons asking for a recount in Ayr - ouch.

    Bad losers as ever
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,287

    MikeL said:

    Ayr is also in South of Scotland so ultimately may not make any difference.

    SNP has 3 list seats in the region.

    Doesn't that depend on if SNP voters vote Green on the list?
    The leader told them to vote SNP x2 so she did not get a majority, so NO.
This discussion has been closed.