Dawn Foster @DawnHFoster 7m Jayda Fransen, who Nicola Sturgeon rightly called a racist and fascist on camera yesterday, polls 46 votes at Glasgow Southside and the announcement is met with audible laughter at the count
I misread that for a moment as ‘Jayda Fransen, who rightly called Nicola Sturgeon a racist and fascist on camera yesterday.’
I was surprised to see you had gone sour on her...
Well, Fransen DID perform one sterling service - IIRC she contributed greatly to Trumpsky's Twitter ban.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.
I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.
Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.
The "has to be a woman" stuff is just bollocks. Surely it has to be the best person to win the next election?
"Has to be a woman" is "bollocks"? Perhaps you need a refresher course in basic biology?
Actually, sometimes selecting a woman IS definitely the way to go.
That's why Republicans in southwest WA State selected a very young Jaime Hererra Beutler to fill a legislative vacancy back in the early years of the current millennium, to replace a state representative who'd gotten himself into a sex scandal.
She went on to win a seat in Congress previously held by the Democrats, and has kept it ever since.
You MAY have heard of her, as her name came up in the aftermath of Trumpsky's abortive Putsch?
I'm not sure why you think that specific case would justify that opinion, but okay.
Labour holding Delyn and Wrexham is rather better news for them. Those are seats that if the Brexit vote was breaking to the Tories in a big way - as initial results hinted - were toast.
That should be a harbinger for good results in Newport and Gower as well.
By the end of the campaign, I expected them to win Delyn but I wasn't expecting them to hold Wrexham
They've just taken me around the room showing me spoilt ballots - a grand total of two spoilt by phallic drawings - and a number of people spoiling ballots by writing messages like 'no vaccine passports' and 'no more lockdowns'."
The Staines-upon-Thames massive are clearly not happy.
SNP hold Dundee City West, 62 per cent of the vote for Joe Fitzpatrick, who had to resign as Drugs Minister over rising deaths. However, his vote up 4 per pent, unaffected by issue on the doorstep in the city
London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:
Khan 38 Bailey 37
I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?
If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
People forget that London had a Tory mayor just a few years back. It is unlikely but not unthinkable that it will happen again. Neither Sadiq nor Shaun Bailey have the presence of Ken or Boris.
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Congrats, HYUFD.
I've just stood down after nine years as a town councillor, the last two as chairman. It's been fun. Mostly. Although you spend at least 50% of your time raging at the county or district.
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Many congratulations.
Indeed, congratulation HYFUD. While we often disagree, I have to admire that you stand by your political beliefs and put yourself out there for election
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Congrats, HYUFD.
I've just stood down after nine years as a town councillor, the last two as chairman. It's been fun. Mostly. Although you spend at least 50% of your time raging at the county or district.
Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)
This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting
Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.
Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
I keep forgetting that the virus only comes out at night. Soz.
Public transport for count staff is also quite a big issue, I expect.
Timetables are almost back to normal in Scotland.
In tdhe small hours of the night? OK, maybe I need to take another look at the bus stop.
They were never available in the small hours so it's irrelevant.
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Congrats, HYUFD.
I've just stood down after nine years as a town councillor, the last two as chairman. It's been fun. Mostly. Although you spend at least 50% of your time raging at the county or district.
Sounds like you had a good stint anyway, though yes always a few tensions with the town and district and county councils and here is no exception either
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Congratulations comrade chairman.
Standing in two seats, clever move.
Thanks, I stood in the Tory Epping ward we held at district for town and for district in the LD Epping ward they held which explains the difference in result
In retrospect, it is now obvious that one of the worst of the many failings of the Corbynites was the total lack of attention to any strategic thinking about what was happening in the ‘left behind’ areas.
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.
I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.
Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.
The "has to be a woman" stuff is just bollocks. Surely it has to be the best person to win the next election?
"Has to be a woman" is "bollocks"? Perhaps you need a refresher course in basic biology?
Actually, sometimes selecting a woman IS definitely the way to go.
That's why Republicans in southwest WA State selected a very young Jaime Hererra Beutler to fill a legislative vacancy back in the early years of the current millennium, to replace a state representative who'd gotten himself into a sex scandal.
She went on to win a seat in Congress previously held by the Democrats, and has kept it ever since.
You MAY have heard of her, as her name came up in the aftermath of Trumpsky's abortive Putsch?
I'm not sure why you think that specific case would justify that opinion, but okay.
I think the point, Rob, is that in certain circumstances, being a [woman] (or, in other circumstances, insert other identity) is an integral part of being the best candidate to win.
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Many congratulations.
Is he going do a Trump, and stay loony, or will the responsibilities of office produce a new, sensible HY?
I don't agree with everything he writes, and have, I am sure, possibly even been unkind and even sarcastic (no, never I hear you cry) , but I have always been impressed that HYUFD remains polite. Something to be admired.
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Be grateful you didn't win both!
And congrats.
Thanks, yes the more you take on at council level the more you have to do no doubt, if you get to county council level, certainly at cabinet level. it is a full time job in itself really
Can someone please explain with the Scottish AMS system does the SNP taking East Lothian (from South Scotland region) probably mean that the SNP will lose one of their three List MSPs they had? Or does it not work that way?
Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.
Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.
I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.
These are awful results for Labour.
I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.
Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.
Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.
I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.
Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.
The "has to be a woman" stuff is just bollocks. Surely it has to be the best person to win the next election?
I agree. It is how the LDs chose Swinson, and the Tories chose May. Not exclusively, but significantly because they were women.
The Tories chose May because the three men either stabbed each other or self-immolated and the other woman was, er, sub-optimal. Gender had nothing to do with it.
Can someone please explain with the Scottish AMS system does the SNP taking East Lothian (from South Scotland region) probably mean that the SNP will lose one of their three List MSPs they had? Or does it not work that way?
Yes, almost certainly so there is no net gain for them. If they were to pick up another constituency such as Dumfries as well they probably would have an overall gain.
In English local councils now the Lib Dems are now +1. As you were.
I think a lot of the more promising Lib Dem prospects are being counted tomorrow (the legendary yellow shift), so their numbers should improve. Looks like a solid set of results overall and the slight risk of virtual wipeout in Scotland seems to have been averted.
Can someone please explain with the Scottish AMS system does the SNP taking East Lothian (from South Scotland region) probably mean that the SNP will lose one of their three List MSPs they had? Or does it not work that way?
Yes, almost certainly so there is no net gain for them. If they were to pick up another constituency such as Dumfries as well they probably would have an overall gain.
yes sort of "seats for show , votes for dough" rule
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Was that a big personal vote for you then, H? Or was it all party?
Much as I would like to think it was a personal vote for me no it was really an excellent campaign all round from the Tory team in Epping and Theydon Bois and across the Epping Forest district
Why is turnout so low for Holyrood elections? If its your national election effectively, then shouldn't turnout be like General Election levels (eg 67.3% in 2019)?
It does seem to be much higher, at that sort of level (65-70) this year.
Keep the faith. The overall majority is shorter than it was an hour ago. Looking like a 1 in 4 chance.
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Was that a big personal vote for you then, H? Or was it all party?
Much as I would like to think it was a personal vote for me no it was really an excellent campaign all round from the Tory team in Epping and Theydon Bois and across the Epping Forest district
To quote that great political commentator Mandy Rice Davis, well, you would say that, wouldn't you?
Senior Shaun Bailey source tells Guido off the back of this, “it’s closer than everyone thinks. Still a long way to go though, but Shaun will have beaten the polls by a fair whack”
Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.
The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes
Was that a big personal vote for you then, H? Or was it all party?
Much as I would like to think it was a personal vote for me no it was really an excellent campaign all round from the Tory team in Epping and Theydon Bois and across the Epping Forest district
I know the geography round there, but even to me "Theydon Bois" sounds like a crack team of (young, male) Tory canvassers!
Graun's Libby Brooks making an interesting point about the high turnout in Scotland -
1m 1/2 Thinking aloud on Scotland's high (yippee!) turnout: early analysis will focus on which parties most successfully GOTV & suggest this is about both voters' enthusiasm for indyref2, and those determined to stop it. But could it also be a **vote of confidence** in Holyrood... Libby Brooks @libby_brooks Replying to @libby_brooks 2/2 ...after a year plus of (not so) subtle threats to devolution via UKIM, Cummings, Johnson calling Scottish devolution "a disaster", added to its handling of pandemic? Did this cut through enough for high turnout to also be a message to Westminster: "hands off our parliament"?
That's a bit out there as a theory isn't it? My folks (and I'm sure they're not alone) regard Holyrood as a joke, filled with low calibre people who are doing a terrible job running the country (Education, Health etc.).
Surely this election was more or less entirely about sending messages re Indyref2 and that's what drove turnout?
Your folks are obviously out of touch with reality and the joke is on them.
C'mon, Malc, how can they be out of touch with reality? They live in Scotland so they live the reality every day. I do agree with you about one thing - the joke is on them ... not very funny though.
78% of Bexley & Bromley 78% of West Central (Westminster, Hammersmith, Chelsea, Kensington) 67% of Lambeth & Southwark 64% of Brent & Harrow 60% of North East (Islington and Waltham Forest) 59% of Ealing & Hillingdon 54% of Havering & Redbridge (from the constituency result looks it is from Havering rather than Redbridge)
I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.
The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.
Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.
Straight into the elephant trap.
I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.
On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.
I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
I concur. So long as he survives, his odds are bound to come in at some stage.
Yep, it's a punt on that. And if I'm wrong I'll lose my money! The perfect poetry and simple metrics of betting. It weeds out the nonsense.
Sounds a shrewd bet to me. I don't think he will be next PM. But 7.4 sounds more than generous.
I am thinking of starting a Truth and Decency party.
Excellent idea!
May I suggest that you get Laurence Fox to compose AND perform your campaign theme song?
EDIT - Though upon mature reflection, fear that TAD just MIGHT be a front for extreme Cornish Nationalist elements who want to establish a beachhead in the Big Smoke?
To undermine English tyranny at its roots, and usher in the dawn of the Greater East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere, stretching from the banks of the Tamar to the Shepard's Bush roundabout.
Comments
They've just taken me around the room showing me spoilt ballots - a grand total of two spoilt by phallic drawings - and a number of people spoiling ballots by writing messages like 'no vaccine passports' and 'no more lockdowns'."
The Staines-upon-Thames massive are clearly not happy.
Genuinely - this is possibly the longest I've gone for in the past fourteen months without thinking about it.
And congrats.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/video-willie-rennie-caught-guard-amorous-pigs-622453
I've just stood down after nine years as a town councillor, the last two as chairman. It's been fun. Mostly. Although you spend at least 50% of your time raging at the county or district.
Standing in two seats, clever move.
Running in more than one seat at the same time, was something Eamon deValera used to do IIRC.
Gratified to see you are following a fine Fenian example!
Just as now the home counties are about to experience slow disenfranchisement from the New-Conservatives.
And, no, surely not. That would be an earthquake. I'd have to move to Cambridge or Brighton.
https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1390692908815327237?s=20
Lib Dem ~ 5803 (48.6%, -18.8)
SNP ~ 4997 (41.9%, +18.8)
Conservative ~ 503 (4.2%, +0.5)
Labour ~ 424 (3.6%, -2.3)
Independent ~ 116 (1%, +1)
Restore Scotland ~ 90 (0.8%, +0.8)
Bloody odd Unionist tactical voting ...
My preferred candidate did not win, though she is getting closer every time.
The greens need to stop playing mr nice guy.
@BallotBoxScot
·
2m
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn (Glasgow) Constituency Vote:
SNP ~ 16428 (59%, +3.4)
Labour ~ 8504 (30.5%, -1.3)
Conservative ~ 2241 (8%, -1.7)
Lib Dem ~ 688 (2.5%, -0.5)
#SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
Again no sign of tactical voting here. It's literally all over the place from constituency to constituency.
Am sure that Sir Winston's ghost is smiling at your victory in his old patch. And in a good way!
That’s got to be good for Labour, surely.
Hopefully the onerous civic duties will not reduce your postings rate.
Which does NOT mean that it's NOT true.
I just hope his brief has nothing to do with geography...
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1390689259368194061
Senior Shaun Bailey source tells Guido off the back of this, “it’s closer than everyone thinks. Still a long way to go though, but Shaun will have beaten the polls by a fair whack”
Congratulations
78% of Bexley & Bromley
78% of West Central (Westminster, Hammersmith, Chelsea, Kensington)
67% of Lambeth & Southwark
64% of Brent & Harrow
60% of North East (Islington and Waltham Forest)
59% of Ealing & Hillingdon
54% of Havering & Redbridge (from the constituency result looks it is from Havering rather than Redbridge)
I don't think he will be next PM. But 7.4 sounds more than generous.
Labour 12,486
Tories
UKIP 962
RefUK 297
Conservatives 9,135
Plaid 2,097
LDs 1,094
Labour hold Delyn then in a slightly better result for the reds, though a 0.7% swing to the Tories
May I suggest that you get Laurence Fox to compose AND perform your campaign theme song?
EDIT - Though upon mature reflection, fear that TAD just MIGHT be a front for extreme Cornish Nationalist elements who want to establish a beachhead in the Big Smoke?
To undermine English tyranny at its roots, and usher in the dawn of the Greater East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere, stretching from the banks of the Tamar to the Shepard's Bush roundabout.
Seems very poor for Con.
@BallotBoxScot
·
41s
Paisley (West) Constituency Vote:
SNP ~ 17495 (50%, +0.2)
Labour ~ 11420 (32.7%, +0.5)
Conservative ~ 3342 (9.6%, -2.4)
Green ~ 1584 (4.5%, +4.5)
Lib Dem ~ 1124 (3.2%, -2.8)
Again, no pattern to speak of.