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Not all parts are following the national trend – this is Cambridgeshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699

    Something I hope we can all applaud

    Dawn Foster
    @DawnHFoster
    7m
    Jayda Fransen, who Nicola Sturgeon rightly called a racist and fascist on camera yesterday, polls 46 votes at Glasgow Southside and the announcement is met with audible laughter at the count

    Good on her for that.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,725

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
    Mulitple elections happening at the same time. Ordinarily things are staggered, add to the excessive covid restrictions and on top of that the various forms of non fptp voting systems used.

    For instance a ward in hartlepool would have three members up for election on a single fptp ballet. You need to divide all the papers up by those who choose a slate and then all and every variation possible. Then youve got two supplementary votes one or the mayor and one for the pcc and then you have the parliamentary seat.
    Can remember back in November 2020, when multiple voices here were saying the stupid Americans need to put races for president, congress, whatever on separate ballots to speed the count!
    Wow! You can remember back that far?! I need to be reminded of what I had for breakfast. Apparently two espressos.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,721
    edited May 7
    eek said:

    In the sneaking news out while no one is looking department.

    The Post Office are talking about 500 additional miscarriage of Justice cases

    https://twitter.com/nickwallis/status/1390655924830879751

    SO when will Paula Vennells be stripped of the gong given her for "for services to the Post Office and to charity"?

    Personally would do that AND work it so that all her mail got routed via Pitcairn Island. Both ways!

    EDIT - Why do I get the distinct feeling, that she was moonlighting last year as Trumpsky's postal consultant?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484
    DavidL said:

    NeilVW said:

    .

    felix said:

    SNP GAIN East Lothian from Labour

    Paul McLennan elected as MSP, seeing off Labour's Martin Whitfield who sought to replace Iain Gray.


    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1390681293902557186?s=20

    Is this the Sarwar bounce we hear so much about?
    Douglas Ross currently on track to surpass Ruth Davidson’s 2016 vote share, based on what we have so far. Again not in the script.
    But maybe not seats; Eastwood, Ayr, Edinburgh Central, Dumfriesshire all very tight. Some of the longshot offsets have come and gone.
    Exactly no use pointless votes when you lose all your seats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    Something I hope we can all applaud

    Dawn Foster
    @DawnHFoster
    7m
    Jayda Fransen, who Nicola Sturgeon rightly called a racist and fascist on camera yesterday, polls 46 votes at Glasgow Southside and the announcement is met with audible laughter at the count

    I misread that for a moment as ‘Jayda Fransen, who rightly called Nicola Sturgeon a racist and fascist on camera yesterday.’

    I was surprised to see you had gone sour on her...
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 912
    What the blazes are my ward doing?

    Just seen this:

    Election results for Victoria
    Sefton Council Elections 2021 - Thursday 6th May, 2021
    Status: Not started
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    Look at the nature of the seats that are counting today, v tomorrow
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,424
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Can I just say Starmer needs to go.

    Morale completely on the floor.

    Socialist Mark Drakeford the only bright spot

    You've been saying that for months, Comrade.

    Who do you want to replace him?
    I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
    Julian Clary would be quite original I think.
    YES! What a great suggestion. That would fulfil the suggestion that I made further down thread about Labour needing to follow the Tory lead and have someone who is a joke and is funny at the same time. People will probably be a lot more comfortable nowadays about jokes about fisting the chancellor of the exchequer
    Well, we had that comedian helping Mr Murphy win the last Scottish election. I forget the person's name - was it E. Izzard?
    True. From a personal perspective I find Mr Izzard about as funny as I find Boris Johnson credible. Julian Clary would be better.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,725
    ydoethur said:

    TimT said:

    Taz said:

    Can I just say Starmer needs to go.

    Morale completely on the floor.

    Socialist Mark Drakeford the only bright spot

    I think you're right. Starmer doesn't have the respect nor the vision to pull Labour from the mire.
    He’s going nowhere.
    Well quite.
    Trouble is that, from where I'm standing (i.e. pining for the days when I could taunt lefties because righties weren't so awful), the logic that led to Starmer's election last year still stands.

    I can imagine SKS as Prime Minister. Maybe not a great one, but a plausible one. Most of the alternatives bandied about, great campaigners but PM material... not so sure. And many of those who might have been on the leadership track have gone to the backbenches, or cities and regions, or out of politics, thanks to the clustershambles of the last decade.

    It's not a problem unique to the left... Hague '97 was right man, far too early. IDS, puulease. And yes, BoJo is a joke, but he was up against an even more absurd possibility.

    I don't know how to solve that problem. The nearest I can come up with is SKS as Kenneth Horne- the calm frontman, the centre of the show, around who the louder characters orbit. Are Labour as whole- let alone the wider anti-Johnson galaxy- up for that? I don't know, though I doubt it from where I'm looking.
    An Ed Balls BoJo match up would have been interesting
    Balls traditionally are beneath A Johnson.
    LOL. And first to get caught in a zipper ... What was that line in Something About Mary?
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475
    @Gallowgate Jessie Joke got hammered.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,095
    72.7% for Houchen? Said it would be north of 70%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    edited May 7
    N East Fife declares:

    Comfortable LD hold

    LD gain 11%, SNP gain 3%, Tory down 11%, Lab down 3%
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,526
    Mphm. I do wonder even more about this tactical voting stuff.


    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    Replying to
    @BallotBoxScot
    Coatbridge and Chryston (Central) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 20577 (57.5%, +9.5)
    Labour ~ 11140 (31.1%, -3.5)
    Conservative ~ 3028 (8.5%, -1.7)
    Lib Dem ~ 622 (1.7%, +0.2)
    Family Party ~ 411 (1.1%, +1.1)
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818
    Pulpstar said:

    Sub Corbyn performance from Starmer. Has to go.

    As I asked earlier to be replaced by whom?
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 464
    edited May 7

    In retrospect, it is now obvious that one of the worst of the many failings of the Corbynites was the total lack of attention to any strategic thinking about what was happening in the ‘left behind’ areas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartlepool_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#/media/File:Hartlepool_vote_share_graph.png

    "Your preoccupation with the working-class vote is wrong. They've got nowhere to go” - Peter Mandelson to Peter Hain, 1999
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    edited May 7
    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    5 of the 7 counting tomorrow should be Labour (Barnet & Camden, City & East, Enfield & Haringey, Greenwich & Lewisham and Merton & Wandsworth) with 2 being Con (Croydon & Sutton, South West)

  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 734

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    List count for Aberdeen donside , first count, Alba got 2%. Salmond out?

    That would be a such a pity - and a suitable end to his political career.
    I hope that the Scots demonstrate that bullies and sex pests shouldn't be rewarded.
    Glasgow Southside didn't get the memo on the former.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    TimT said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimT said:

    Taz said:

    Can I just say Starmer needs to go.

    Morale completely on the floor.

    Socialist Mark Drakeford the only bright spot

    I think you're right. Starmer doesn't have the respect nor the vision to pull Labour from the mire.
    He’s going nowhere.
    Well quite.
    Trouble is that, from where I'm standing (i.e. pining for the days when I could taunt lefties because righties weren't so awful), the logic that led to Starmer's election last year still stands.

    I can imagine SKS as Prime Minister. Maybe not a great one, but a plausible one. Most of the alternatives bandied about, great campaigners but PM material... not so sure. And many of those who might have been on the leadership track have gone to the backbenches, or cities and regions, or out of politics, thanks to the clustershambles of the last decade.

    It's not a problem unique to the left... Hague '97 was right man, far too early. IDS, puulease. And yes, BoJo is a joke, but he was up against an even more absurd possibility.

    I don't know how to solve that problem. The nearest I can come up with is SKS as Kenneth Horne- the calm frontman, the centre of the show, around who the louder characters orbit. Are Labour as whole- let alone the wider anti-Johnson galaxy- up for that? I don't know, though I doubt it from where I'm looking.
    An Ed Balls BoJo match up would have been interesting
    Balls traditionally are beneath A Johnson.
    LOL. And first to get caught in a zipper ... What was that line in Something About Mary?
    If Balls got caught in a zipper, unlike A Johnson he’d be teste.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.

    The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.

    Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.

    Straight into the elephant trap.

    I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
    It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.

    On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.

    I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
    I concur. So long as he survives, his odds are bound to come in at some stage.
    Yep, it's a punt on that. And if I'm wrong I'll lose my money! The perfect poetry and simple metrics of betting. It weeds out the nonsense.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    edited May 7
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.

    Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.

    I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.

    These are awful results for Labour.

    I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.

    Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.

    Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
    Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
    Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
    Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
    That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
    It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.

    I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.

    Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.

  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 576

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,232
    edited May 7
    Jeezo, definitely no UNS in Scotland

    Nick Eardley
    @nickeardleybbc
    Lib Dems hold Shetland - but majority over SNP slashed from 4,000 to 800
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    April fools day is really late this year :smiley:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,424
    ydoethur said:

    .

    dixiedean said:

    Can I just say Starmer needs to go.

    Morale completely on the floor.

    Socialist Mark Drakeford the only bright spot

    You've been saying that for months, Comrade.

    Who do you want to replace him?
    I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
    Julian Clary would be quite original I think.
    Don't be silly, he meant John Curtice.
    Well, if we’re talking comedians how about Jasper Carrott?
    Another great suggestion. Jasper would fall more into the category of funny, but not a joke though. Kind of the opposite of Corbyn, so not quite pulling off the Boris double act. It really is a tough one for Labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.

    Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.

    I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.

    These are awful results for Labour.

    I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.

    Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.

    Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
    Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
    Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
    Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
    That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
    It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.

    I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.

    Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.

    The "has to be a woman" stuff is just bollocks. Surely it has to be the best person to win the next election?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,721
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like almost no change in Scotland?

    Rising turnout by Nats is cancelled by rising turnout for No (plus unionist tactical voting)

    This comment will probably look ridiculous by late August, when they finally finish counting

    Can someone explain to me why we have gone from being the envy of the world at counting ballots* to taking effing days? The votes should be counted overnight, everywhere. Wales, Scotland, NI, London, Jersey, the Balliwick of South Sark. Everywhere.

    Its partly COVID restrictions I think....??
    Mulitple elections happening at the same time. Ordinarily things are staggered, add to the excessive covid restrictions and on top of that the various forms of non fptp voting systems used.

    For instance a ward in hartlepool would have three members up for election on a single fptp ballet. You need to divide all the papers up by those who choose a slate and then all and every variation possible. Then youve got two supplementary votes one or the mayor and one for the pcc and then you have the parliamentary seat.
    Can remember back in November 2020, when multiple voices here were saying the stupid Americans need to put races for president, congress, whatever on separate ballots to speed the count!
    Wow! You can remember back that far?! I need to be reminded of what I had for breakfast. Apparently two espressos.
    Keep in mind, yours truly is a semi-superannuated quasi-Irishman, thus beginning to suffer from early-onset Irish Alzheimer's.

    Meaning I'm starting to forget everything - including my breakfast choices -EXCEPT my grievances!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    Vale of Glamorgan turnout is high, at 54% - highest in Wales.

    I am guessing that’s Labour voters turning out in the hope of hanging on, but I could be wrong.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    Lib Dems hold North East Fife
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    I wonder whether the Sewell report has done the tories a big favour in some constituencies.

    The report made it OK to be a WWC person in an old town again.

    Of course labour reviled the report, and with it some of their base.

    Straight into the elephant trap.

    I suspect you are reading too much into that report - this is just the 2017-20 political party realignment taking full effect..
    It's a new politics - and apart from the opportunities for 'new punditry' and betting opps, boy do I not like it.

    On which point (betting), money where mouth is, I said that post Hartlepool I'd be betting into the trend not with it, and so I have. I've done Starmer Next PM @ 7.4.

    I like this because I think he will ride this out and lead into the GE. And Johnson's going nowhere, so he will too. So I have an enormous 7.4 on one runner in a 2 horse race. I'll be able to lay it back (if I want) at less than half that price in a year from now.
    Brave call. But interesting that so far the only voices raised against have come from the Corbynites. I think that would suggest he’s safe for now.

    And really, oh superforecaster, who would want to bet against you now?
    :smile: - It's a fair old time now since I got something wrong.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,979
    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
    There is little enthusiasm for Khan even amongst those who want him to win. I'd expect there are a load of Green 1st Labour 2nd and Joke/Indy 1st Labour 2nd preference votes that reflect this.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
    The site keeps crashing, but the parts being counted today are biased toward outer London
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    Scottish Tories for wee Willie.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,328

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
    There is little enthusiasm for Khan even amongst those who want him to win. I'd expect there are a load of Green 1st Labour 2nd and Joke/Indy 1st Labour 2nd preference votes that reflect this.
    Yep, this is my read. No-one loves Khan.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sub Corbyn performance from Starmer. Has to go.

    As I asked earlier to be replaced by whom?
    Burnham.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    IanB2 said:

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
    The site keeps crashing, but the parts being counted today are biased toward outer London
    Sorry, might have been me also trying to opening it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Conservatives GAIN NINE seats in Sandwell.

    Conservative GAIN Quinton (Birmingham) from Labour.

    Conservative GAIN Oscott (Birmingham) from Labour.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.

    Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.

    I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.

    These are awful results for Labour.

    I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.

    Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.

    Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
    Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
    Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
    Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
    That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
    It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.

    I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.

    Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.

    The "has to be a woman" stuff is just bollocks. Surely it has to be the best person to win the next election?
    I agree. It is how the LDs chose Swinson, and the Tories chose May. Not exclusively, but significantly because they were women.

  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    What the blazes are my ward doing?

    Just seen this:

    Election results for Victoria
    Sefton Council Elections 2021 - Thursday 6th May, 2021
    Status: Not started

    In Lancashire the count won't start until tomorrow. By then I might have forgotten who I voted for...
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.

    Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.

    I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.

    These are awful results for Labour.

    I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.

    Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.

    Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
    Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
    Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
    Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
    That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
    It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.

    I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.

    Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.

    The "has to be a woman" stuff is just bollocks. Surely it has to be the best person to win the next election?
    It's going to be a woman by default as the male options are all useless.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,232
    Lol, 'I was only there for the photocalls'

    Paul Hutcheon
    @paulhutcheon
    1m
    Sounds like Ruth Davidson is running a mile from the Scottish Tory campaign. She said it was Douglas Ross' campaign, adding:

    "I wasn't part of the planners."
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    5 of the 7 counting tomorrow should be Labour (Barnet & Camden, City & East, Enfield & Haringey, Greenwich & Lewisham and Merton & Wandsworth) with 2 being Con (Croydon & Sutton, South West)

    Bailey is 21s on betfair if you believe in miracles.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,683
    edited May 7

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    5 of the 7 counting tomorrow should be Labour (Barnet & Camden, City & East, Enfield & Haringey, Greenwich & Lewisham and Merton & Wandsworth) with 2 being Con (Croydon & Sutton, South West)

    i suspect this is close to the polls in terms of Khan's vote - he will get 40-45% (bookies fav) . City and East is ,despite its name , heavily Labour given the East bit of the seat having 100,000s of voters and the City bit about 10,000
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    Look at the nature of the seats that are counting today, v tomorrow
    Yes - he's clearly not gpoing to win - but is he doing a little better than ther polls and if so why?
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475
    Former labour mp Helen goodman lost her attempt to get back into politics in Durham council. Good.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,195
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,834
    ydoethur said:

    Something I hope we can all applaud

    Dawn Foster
    @DawnHFoster
    7m
    Jayda Fransen, who Nicola Sturgeon rightly called a racist and fascist on camera yesterday, polls 46 votes at Glasgow Southside and the announcement is met with audible laughter at the count

    I misread that for a moment as ‘Jayda Fransen, who rightly called Nicola Sturgeon a racist and fascist on camera yesterday.’

    I was surprised to see you had gone sour on her...
    As a riposte, it would not have been wholly without foundation.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 188

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
    There is little enthusiasm for Khan even amongst those who want him to win. I'd expect there are a load of Green 1st Labour 2nd and Joke/Indy 1st Labour 2nd preference votes that reflect this.
    Agreed. In my own circles (admittedly a bubble) most people I know very much prefer Khan to Bailey, but none of them are giving Khan their first preference. It's all Green/Lib Dem/Binface. Also Tory areas counting first.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,195
    UK case summary

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.

    Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.

    I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.

    These are awful results for Labour.

    I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.

    Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.

    Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
    Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
    Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
    Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
    That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
    It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.

    I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.

    Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.

    Labour doesn’t deliver for them, anyway. I was standing next to Wes Streeting when, as a councillor, he promised the voluntary sector and low income campaign groups of the Borough that, if Labour took control of the council, they would maintain the coalition’s record and not cut council tax support for low income working families.

    They won the election, and broke that promise at the first opportunity. And again at the second, the year after, and then again for a third time.

    Labour’s attitude to the poor in an anecdote.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,195
    UK Hospitals

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  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Lol, 'I was only there for the photocalls'

    Paul Hutcheon
    @paulhutcheon
    1m
    Sounds like Ruth Davidson is running a mile from the Scottish Tory campaign. She said it was Douglas Ross' campaign, adding:

    "I wasn't part of the planners."

    Yet to be seen whether he has done better or worse than her.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,605
    edited May 7

    In retrospect, it is now obvious that one of the worst of the many failings of the Corbynites was the total lack of attention to any strategic thinking about what was happening in the ‘left behind’ areas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartlepool_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#/media/File:Hartlepool_vote_share_graph.png

    "Your preoccupation with the working-class vote is wrong. They've got nowhere to go” - Peter Mandelson to Peter Hain, 1999
    May have applied in 1999. It certainly didn’t by the time Corbyn became leader in 2015. Ed Balls had just lost his seat.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260
    IanB2 said:

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
    The site keeps crashing, but the parts being counted today are biased toward outer London
    Acute case of candidatitis, by the sound of it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,721
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.

    Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.

    I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.

    These are awful results for Labour.

    I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.

    Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.

    Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
    Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
    Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
    Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
    That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
    It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.

    I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.

    Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.

    The "has to be a woman" stuff is just bollocks. Surely it has to be the best person to win the next election?
    "Has to be a woman" is "bollocks"? Perhaps you need a refresher course in basic biology?

    Actually, sometimes selecting a woman IS definitely the way to go.

    That's why Republicans in southwest WA State selected a very young Jaime Hererra Beutler to fill a legislative vacancy back in the early years of the current millennium, to replace a state representative who'd gotten himself into a sex scandal.

    She went on to win a seat in Congress previously held by the Democrats, and has kept it ever since.

    You MAY have heard of her, as her name came up in the aftermath of Trumpsky's abortive Putsch?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,195
    UK Deaths

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    Floater said:

    Conservatives GAIN NINE seats in Sandwell.

    Conservative GAIN Quinton (Birmingham) from Labour.

    Conservative GAIN Oscott (Birmingham) from Labour.

    The Midlands results and now some in Birmingham augur very well for Andy Street.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,195
    UK R

    image
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,424
    RobD said:

    Something I hope we can all applaud

    Dawn Foster
    @DawnHFoster
    7m
    Jayda Fransen, who Nicola Sturgeon rightly called a racist and fascist on camera yesterday, polls 46 votes at Glasgow Southside and the announcement is met with audible laughter at the count

    Good on her for that.
    Racism is often a driver of nationalism. Whether she is a "fascist" is probably up for debate. She certainly is someone that thought it OK to cover up for someone she later described as a "sex pest".
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    Lab easily wins 2nd prefs for PCC in Newcastle, Sunderland, and Northumberland. Shows the nature of the "left" being split compared to a united "right".
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Declaration in Delyn imminent. Candidates called
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sub Corbyn performance from Starmer. Has to go.

    As I asked earlier to be replaced by whom?
    Burnham.
    Not an option as he isn't an MP - and the rules say you need to be one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Maffew said:

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
    There is little enthusiasm for Khan even amongst those who want him to win. I'd expect there are a load of Green 1st Labour 2nd and Joke/Indy 1st Labour 2nd preference votes that reflect this.
    Agreed. In my own circles (admittedly a bubble) most people I know very much prefer Khan to Bailey, but none of them are giving Khan their first preference. It's all Green/Lib Dem/Binface. Also Tory areas counting first.
    So Khan will win on binface second preferences? Marvellous.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,195
    Age related data

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,979
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just seen the graphics on the swings to Labour in various counties relative to 2017.

    Minimal. The subtitles I picked up seemed to be a ray of hope narrative for Labour, but I was just thinking 'Ouch'. I mean, I know none of Kent, Essex or Leicestershire constitute Greater Remainia, but still. The NEV is likely to be painful.

    I note the unity across the Labour church, that it needs to know what it stands for and have a bold vision (versions of which may differ wildly). You simply can't argue with that. I hope that is developed already and ready to get out there in the next 12 months of comparative normality, and that 2022 puts them in a somewhat different place.

    These are awful results for Labour.

    I think that there may well be a leadership challenge (40% chance, but my confidence in that number is very small). Not because there should be, but because the opportunity is there.

    Normal politics whenever that happens will see Starmer do better, but it's tricky to see him finding the miracle. He's rightly drifting in the next pm market.

    Next GE is more firmly in 2024 too in my view.
    Anecdotally, pretty every Labour supporter I know personally wants Burnham as leader. ASAP.
    Anecdotally, none of the Labour supporters I know want Burnham as leader. If Starmer were to go, they all think we should elect a woman as next leader.
    Is my feeling, fwiw. If we haven't turned a corner by say next summer (after a year of post pandemic politics) then I think a change of leader will probably be needed and if so I'd be looking to vote (as I did last time) for a female candidate. It's not as if we don't have any good ones. This isn't mindless box ticking, it's recognition of a genuine embarrassment that the party of the progressive left has never had a female leader and a desire to put this right. So along with all the other qualities relevant to the choice, gender is rightly there. It doesn't rule out a bloke, should he happen to be clearly better on most everything else, but I'd very much want a woman (as it were).
    That was how we got Swinson. Just saying.
    It was indeed. I think Ed Davey would have handled 2019 much better. I did vote for him.

    I think though that the best candidates for Labour are female though. Burnham is out of Westminster politics, and there are no standout men in the Shadow cabinet or waiting in the wings. Possibly Lammy.

    Most importantly, Labour needs to figure out what it is for. We know what it is against. It needs to move away from welfare too. Campaigning on Foodbanks, Bedroom tax etc is a hiding to nothing, not least because that clientele doesn't turn out, at least not in numbers.

    The "has to be a woman" stuff is just bollocks. Surely it has to be the best person to win the next election?
    Kind of, especially if you look at is a one off. However longer term the Labour party are probably missing out on talented female leaders because their selectorate is biased against them as leader. What are the odds that none of the best people to win an election for Labour have ever been women? Why didnt they get the job?

    Once they have had one female leader, as the Tories found with Thatcher, those barriers become less.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,721

    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20

    Surprise would be IF the said it under their own names, as opposed to being anonymous "sources".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,526
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sub Corbyn performance from Starmer. Has to go.

    As I asked earlier to be replaced by whom?
    Burnham.
    Not an option as he isn't an MP - and the rules say you need to be one.
    Do Lords count?
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 81
    Labour holding on in Wrexham. Didn't see that.

    I'm increasingly convinced by John Denham's hypothesis that there is a correlation between %age of those declaring themselves "More English than British" and Tory gains.

    It doesn't translate to Wales where the UKIP vote appears to have mainly gone back to Labour.

    Also have to say the increasing distinction Welsh Labour have made between themselves and the UK Party is working out for them too given how tarnished the Labour brand is across the border.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,195
    Age related data scaled to 100 population per age group

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  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Willie Rennie romps home with a staunch 55 % of the vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20

    He’s clearly not bright enough to have deduced that Inner and Outer London aren’t electorally the same?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,481
    Looks like the Conservatives are making further progress in Leave areas in the local elections and Hartlepool of course.

    The LDs and Greens are doing better in Remain areas like Cambridgeshire, Labour not really making any progress at all and losing seats in England, though it will likely make gains once the London results come in and hold on in Wales.

    In Scotland looks like little change on 2016
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 734
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems like it's a great night for the Tories, a slightly underwhelming one for the SNP, a mixed one for the Lib Dems and an awful one for Labour.

    If I were Johnson, I'd be elated.
    Davey, relieved
    Sturgeon, disappointed
    Starmer, devestated

    Sound about right?
    What do you think Sturgeon wants?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Can I just say Starmer needs to go.

    Morale completely on the floor.

    Socialist Mark Drakeford the only bright spot

    You've been saying that for months, Comrade.

    Who do you want to replace him?
    I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
    Julian Clary would be quite original I think.
    YES! What a great suggestion. That would fulfil the suggestion that I made further down thread about Labour needing to follow the Tory lead and have someone who is a joke and is funny at the same time. People will probably be a lot more comfortable nowadays about jokes about fisting the chancellor of the exchequer
    Well, we had that comedian helping Mr Murphy win the last Scottish election. I forget the person's name - was it E. Izzard?
    True. From a personal perspective I find Mr Izzard about as funny as I find Boris Johnson credible. Julian Clary would be better.
    Izzard is very funny, but is a liability with politics.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20

    Whatever they're on, could I have some please?

    Unrelated good news: two-thirds of the adult population of the UK have now had their first Covid jab.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    Starmer sounded totally off the wall in his interview earlier - his minders should never have let him go on - he was totally shouty, shouty and saying nothing.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 477
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
    The site keeps crashing, but the parts being counted today are biased toward outer London
    Sorry, might have been me also trying to opening it.
    Croydon & Sutton is usually one of the first results, will be a Con hold, no Lib/Dems in Croydon and hardly any Lab in Sutton.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,195
    CFR

    image
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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20

    Not. Happening.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    Declaration in Delyn imminent. Candidates called

    Labour holding Delyn and Wrexham is rather better news for them. Those are seats that if the Brexit vote was breaking to the Tories in a big way - as initial results hinted - were toast.

    That should be a harbinger for good results in Newport and Gower as well.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,721

    In retrospect, it is now obvious that one of the worst of the many failings of the Corbynites was the total lack of attention to any strategic thinking about what was happening in the ‘left behind’ areas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartlepool_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#/media/File:Hartlepool_vote_share_graph.png

    "Your preoccupation with the working-class vote is wrong. They've got nowhere to go” - Peter Mandelson to Peter Hain, 1999
    May have applied in 1999. It certainly didn’t by the time Corbyn became leader in 2015. Ed Balls had just lost his seat.
    Ironic that Jezza saw himself - and still does - as a working class hero. Sort of a Rocky as yard gnome.

    But the actual working class was as attracted to him, as Superman is to kryptonite.
  • What the blazes are my ward doing?

    Just seen this:

    Election results for Victoria
    Sefton Council Elections 2021 - Thursday 6th May, 2021
    Status: Not started

    Counting tomorrow most likely?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    edited May 7
    Turnout up 11 percentage points in Moray.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Can I just say Starmer needs to go.

    Morale completely on the floor.

    Socialist Mark Drakeford the only bright spot

    You've been saying that for months, Comrade.

    Who do you want to replace him?
    I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
    Julian Clary would be quite original I think.
    YES! What a great suggestion. That would fulfil the suggestion that I made further down thread about Labour needing to follow the Tory lead and have someone who is a joke and is funny at the same time. People will probably be a lot more comfortable nowadays about jokes about fisting the chancellor of the exchequer
    Well, we had that comedian helping Mr Murphy win the last Scottish election. I forget the person's name - was it E. Izzard?
    Carnyx, you missed a L there I think
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    Interesting contrast on the BBC headlines: Boris out and about in the weather with Hartlepool as the backdrop, Kier sat in a booklined study talking about needing to reconnect with 'real people'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, approx 70% done.

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    Binface?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    I wonder what that Cambridgeshire result means for James Palmer now, incumbent mayor of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority.

    I think he should just still do it, but it'll be close.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    Alistair said:

    Turnout up 11 percentage points in Moray.

    Why is turnout so low for Holyrood elections? If its your national election effectively, then shouldn't turnout be like General Election levels (eg 67.3% in 2019)?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    The Labour Northumbria PCC had a majority of 6,000 in 2019.
    Today she has a majority of 66,000
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,424
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Can I just say Starmer needs to go.

    Morale completely on the floor.

    Socialist Mark Drakeford the only bright spot

    You've been saying that for months, Comrade.

    Who do you want to replace him?
    I think he suggested a sure fire winner, whose initials are shared with the Son of God . Think it might have been tried before though. The insanity of the left; keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.
    Julian Clary would be quite original I think.
    YES! What a great suggestion. That would fulfil the suggestion that I made further down thread about Labour needing to follow the Tory lead and have someone who is a joke and is funny at the same time. People will probably be a lot more comfortable nowadays about jokes about fisting the chancellor of the exchequer
    Well, we had that comedian helping Mr Murphy win the last Scottish election. I forget the person's name - was it E. Izzard?
    True. From a personal perspective I find Mr Izzard about as funny as I find Boris Johnson credible. Julian Clary would be better.
    Izzard is very funny, but is a liability with politics.

    I did say from a personal perspective. Comedy is like other art forms, the beauty is very much in the ear of the beholder. I know many people that don't find Python funny, which to me is an anathema. I don't find Ricky Gervais at all funny, seems like a twat playing himself, but others think he is hilarious.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    edited May 7
    HYUFD said:

    Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.

    The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes

    Congratulations. And commiserations too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,629
    HYUFD said:

    Pleased to say I was elected an Epping Town Councillor this afternoon in St John's ward with 1,156 votes.

    The LDs held the Epping Hemnall district seat where I also stood but increased the Tory vote slightly to 688 votes

    Tories - Epping Here!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,195

    That would be a surprise:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541?s=20

    Whatever they're on, could I have some please?

    Unrelated good news: two-thirds of the adult population of the UK have now had their first Covid jab.
    66.6% no less

    What will the....errr... religiously interesting types make of that?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,526
    Hmm some tactical voting there by the look of it.


    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    5m
    North East Fife (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

    Lib Dem ~ 22163 (55.1%, +11.2)
    SNP ~ 14715 (36.6%, +2.9)
    Conservative ~ 2323 (5.8%, -10.8)
    Labour ~ 1056 (2.6%, -3.3)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,979
    IanB2 said:

    Maffew said:

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, all about 70% complete:

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    I can’t see Bailey’s in with a chance.. surely
    What the hell is going on there? Tory areas counting first?

    If Khan really Khan’t, that would surely be curtains for Starmer. Can’t even process that being right.
    There is little enthusiasm for Khan even amongst those who want him to win. I'd expect there are a load of Green 1st Labour 2nd and Joke/Indy 1st Labour 2nd preference votes that reflect this.
    Agreed. In my own circles (admittedly a bubble) most people I know very much prefer Khan to Bailey, but none of them are giving Khan their first preference. It's all Green/Lib Dem/Binface. Also Tory areas counting first.
    So Khan will win on binface second preferences? Marvellous.
    As a thank you Khan should implement policies 2, 5, 7, 8, 14, 15, 18 and 19 from the Count's wonderful manifesto.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    TOTAL VICTORY
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    Donkey with a Rosette territory?

    SNP hold Dundee City West, 62 per cent of the vote for Joe Fitzpatrick, who had to resign as Drugs Minister over rising deaths. However, his vote up 4 per pent, unaffected by issue on the doorstep in the city

    https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1390662509682696194?s=20
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 576

    MikeL said:

    London - 7/14 seats counting, approx 70% done.

    Khan 38
    Bailey 37

    Binface?
    A popular receptacle for protest votes?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,526

    Alistair said:

    Turnout up 11 percentage points in Moray.

    Why is turnout so low for Holyrood elections? If its your national election effectively, then shouldn't turnout be like General Election levels (eg 67.3% in 2019)?
    It does seem to be much higher, at that sort of level (65-70) this year.
This discussion has been closed.