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The screen-grab from the BBC’s LE2017 coverage that sets out the huge challenge for Johnson’s party

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Comments

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,833

    Cookie said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/02/face-masks-glass-screens-may-have-stay-beyond-june-21/
    Face masks likely to remain after 21st June.
    Cookie likely to continue witholding his vote from the Conservative party after 21st June.

    I can’t read that story because I’m not a subscriber. But remember all legal restrictions will go on 21 June according to the government’s own roadmap. Whether some venues keep glass screens, who knows?
    Is that what it says?

    ” Step 4 - not before 21 June
    Social contact
    By Step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June, the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact.

    Business, activities and events
    We hope to reopen remaining premises, including nightclubs, and ease the restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3. This will be subject to the results of a scientific Events Research Programme to test the outcome of certain pilot events through the spring and summer, where we will trial the use of testing and other techniques to cut the risk of infection. The same Events Research Programme will guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.”
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,833
    HYUFD said:

    On topic I note the voteshares in the 2017 county council elections were 38% Tory, 27% Labour and 18% LD based on the BBC results screenshot in OGH's thread header.

    So given even the latest Survation voteshares at the weekend of Tories 39%, Labour 38% and LD 9% the Tories would actually be up 1% still on their 2017 county council voteshare (helped by squeezing UKIP who got 4.6% in England in the 2017 locals), Labour would be up by 11%, a big jump and the LDs would actually be down 9% on what they got last time.

    On that basis then you would expect Labour to gain a large number of Tory county council seats on Thursday based on a 5% swing from the Tories to Labour, though the Tories would still be narrowly ahead overall. There would also be a 10% swing from LD to Labour so you would expect Labour to gain a number of LD county council seats as well and a 5% swing from LD to Tory, so you would expect the Tories to gain some LD county council seats (though LD opposition to new development in the Home Counties etc might reduce that swing in the South of England at least).

    Are the GE polls indicative of the NEV shares in Local Elections?
    I was rather under the impression that they were usually fairly different.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    Is it any surprise that a campaign by Little Englanders for Little Englanders did not win majority support in Scotland?

    They should definately have another go...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,836
    I think there’s a very good chance that “Remain” wins any IndyRef2 in any case.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Harris: When he wasn’t “chillaxing”, Cameron tried to cover his lack of substance with a performative gravitas that sometimes verged on camp. Johnson, by contrast, seizes every opportunity to reduce politics to the absurd, and thereby makes the vacuum beneath him even more glaring. Without convictions or consistency you get a government based on serial lurching, from U-turn to U-turn and crisis to crisis, which sooner or later has massive consequences.

    Moreover, because that dominance symbolises a very English mixture of nostalgia, deference and recklessness, it is part of the reason why the UK is now pulling apart; indeed, the fact that Johnson has been so hare-brained about arrangements in Northern Ireland is a vivid case study in the perils of entrusting matters of the utmost fragility to people whose basic unseriousness is not just toxic, but extremely dangerous.

    Part of the English disease is our readiness to ascribe our national disasters to questions of personal character. But the vanities of posh men and their habit of dragging us into catastrophe have much deeper roots. They centre on an ancient system that trains a narrow caste of people to run our affairs, but also ensures they have almost none of the attributes actually required. If this country is to belatedly move into the 21st century, this is what we will finally have to confront: a great tower of failings that, to use a very topical word, are truly institutional.

    That seems like a lot of words to say this is all about class. But are other places really hugely varied in their leadership?
    I think that the point is that the cult of the Public schoolboy gentleman amateur still dominates English life. Certainly other countries have ruling cliques, but the English one eschews intellectual study and preparation. It seems an unshakeable fixation in the land.

    So we have two recent Etonian Prime Ministers playing their games with our lives. Cameron then Johnson, entitled amateurism first as tragedy, then as farce.

    Sounds like bollocks to me. Or, gasp, English exceptionalism.

    Unless I am to believe that when people in other countries complain about their ruling cliques they are doing so on the basis they are too well prepared, intelligent and competent, how dare they. Which is the unavoidable implication of suggesting our clique, uniquely, eschews study and preparation.

    It also seems like a way of blaming people for who they are choosing whilst still making that choice the fault of the person chosen.
    It’s a particularly English ailment, though, to create a ruling clique whose defining feature is insouciance.
    Is it? Boris has that, but a lack of seriousness from him is striking because it is uncommon. Part of his brand is being distinct from most of the clique, for better or worse depending on your stance.
    Insouciance doesn't have to have a lack of seriousness, it can be born of arrogance and a slightly distorted sense of "duty". Boris is unusual in that he doesn't take politics, life or himself entirely seriously. It may partly be an affectation but it is one of his more redeeming features. In contrast SKS takes himself way too seriously.
    But as you've just said, Boris is unusual. He isn't emblematic of some common trend in British politics. Indeed, the fear that he will become emblematic of it is one thing that worries people.

    So the premise still fails.
    I really cannot see politicians not taking themselves seriously catching on. To want to be PM or even a minister you need to be vain, arrogant and genuinely believe that you are the answer to the questions being asked. It will be a while before another Boris comes along.
    But you said in an earlier post: "SKS takes himself way too seriously" which is, it seems, a criticism. I'm curious why you think this - you're either serious or you're not. How do you think SKS should take himself less seriously - tell more jokes? Lighten up a bit? Do you think the contrast with BJ is too sharp? Or is it just that you've got to find something to be critical of SKS?
    I think that the perception that Boris does not take himself seriously chimes with people (whether it is true or not) who, by and large, do not take politicians seriously at all. SKS seems to me an intelligent man who means well but has little sense of the absurd and a minimal sense of humour. We saw at the weekend how uncomfortable he looked doing the John Lewis gimmick, its just not him.

    You can make the case that someone who takes the job seriously is exactly what we need and having a buffoon/clown/Bozo/ whatever today's epithet needed is never a good idea; let alone in serious times like this. I am not completely unsympathetic to that view myself but I think that the weight of the evidence shows that being a bit of a laugh and an entertainer wins far more votes than it probably should.
    Ms Davidson is of course another example of the 'bit of laugh and entertainer' approach - very much aware of her media image, jokey photo opportunities etc. Her SLD oppo also tries that but he seems to end up with copulating farm animals in the background of the photo ...
    True. For 2 politicians who really don't seem to like each other very much they have a lot in common in terms of style. And I have several friends who are Labour through and through who cut her a lot of slack as a result. It works.
    I'm actually surprised the comparison isn't made more often.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,162
    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I think you're being incredibly optimistic.

    I just don't see any way possible that the SNP+Greens won't have a majority, not without a mammoth polling turnabout/catastrophe.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
  • eekeek Posts: 15,741

    eek said:

    A survey commissioned by These Islands has revealed widespread fact denial within the Scottish electorate and deep confusion over the SNP’s independence plans, particularly with respect to currency. Survation surveyed 1,047 people aged 16+ living in Scotland. Fieldwork was conducted 21st - 23rd April 2021.

    57% of Scottish independence supporters agree with the statement “The figures used to calculate Scotland’s deficit (the GERS figures) are made up by Westminster to hide Scotland's true wealth” and 90% of those considered the statement to be “important” or “very important” to their opinion on Scottish independence.
    The reality of Scotland’s deficit position is shown in the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures published by the Scottish Government. These figures qualify as National Statistics and are compiled by the Scottish Government’s own statisticians and economists. It should be deeply shocking that most independence supporters agree with the statement above – the figures are demonstrably not “made up by Westminster” and it is fantastical to believe that an SNP Government would choose to publish figures which “hide Scotland’s true wealth”. The First Minister is a gifted communicator, but is strangely reluctant to nail this corrosive myth.


    https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i374/scottish_politics_in_the_grip_of_a_fact_denial_epidemic.aspx

    Oh that explains MalcolmG but how do you solve that issue in a way the SNP can't escape from.
    As far as I can see the majority of pro Indy voters don’t want to confront the economics of independence. That’s fine.
    Well we left the EU without regard to the economic consequences so it makes perfect sense that Scotland may do the same
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,162
    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I’m old enough to remember when Alba were seen to be gaming the election.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,162
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
    It seems to be a group dedicated to 303 Squadron and Jags which is not an instant association in my head.
    https://www.facebook.com/303jagsquaduk/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    eek said:

    eek said:

    A survey commissioned by These Islands has revealed widespread fact denial within the Scottish electorate and deep confusion over the SNP’s independence plans, particularly with respect to currency. Survation surveyed 1,047 people aged 16+ living in Scotland. Fieldwork was conducted 21st - 23rd April 2021.

    57% of Scottish independence supporters agree with the statement “The figures used to calculate Scotland’s deficit (the GERS figures) are made up by Westminster to hide Scotland's true wealth” and 90% of those considered the statement to be “important” or “very important” to their opinion on Scottish independence.
    The reality of Scotland’s deficit position is shown in the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures published by the Scottish Government. These figures qualify as National Statistics and are compiled by the Scottish Government’s own statisticians and economists. It should be deeply shocking that most independence supporters agree with the statement above – the figures are demonstrably not “made up by Westminster” and it is fantastical to believe that an SNP Government would choose to publish figures which “hide Scotland’s true wealth”. The First Minister is a gifted communicator, but is strangely reluctant to nail this corrosive myth.


    https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i374/scottish_politics_in_the_grip_of_a_fact_denial_epidemic.aspx

    Oh that explains MalcolmG but how do you solve that issue in a way the SNP can't escape from.
    As far as I can see the majority of pro Indy voters don’t want to confront the economics of independence. That’s fine.
    Well we left the EU without regard to the economic consequences so it makes perfect sense that Scotland may do the same
    Though the Scots were too frit to vote to leave a union in either 2014 or 2016, so who says they'll be prepared to a third time around?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    https://twitter.com/SnellArthur/status/1389149512002908160?s=19

    Royal Family hasn't been consulted about the yacht. Amazing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I think you're being incredibly optimistic.

    I just don't see any way possible that the SNP+Greens won't have a majority, not without a mammoth polling turnabout/catastrophe.
    Two things here Philip.

    Firstly, on whether there should be a second referendum I think that we look at the overall vote not the number of seats won under a fairly dodgy voting system. That is extremely close with the latest by Panelbase having 51% for the SNP+Greens+Alba and the previously one, Survation I think, having 49%. If a majority of Scots vote for parties opposed to a second referendum Boris is entitled to say no unless he thinks there is a tactical advantage in saying yes.

    Secondly, the objective of a Unionist like me voting is to maximise the representation of Unionists in the Parliament. There are some interesting factors at play here. The SNP vote seems less enthused, the Greens tend to poll higher than they get and Alba are threatening to take away a couple of percent without making the threshold in some places. I agree an SNP+ Green coalition is very likely to have a majority, I want that majority to be as small as possible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I’m old enough to remember when Alba were seen to be gaming the election.
    It doesn't seem to be working, does it? I am very surprised how little impact Salmond has had.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I’m old enough to remember when Alba were seen to be gaming the election.
    It doesn't seem to be working, does it? I am very surprised how little impact Salmond has had.
    Especially given all the free publicity in the Unionist media.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I think you're being incredibly optimistic.

    I just don't see any way possible that the SNP+Greens won't have a majority, not without a mammoth polling turnabout/catastrophe.
    Two things here Philip.

    Firstly, on whether there should be a second referendum I think that we look at the overall vote not the number of seats won under a fairly dodgy voting system. That is extremely close with the latest by Panelbase having 51% for the SNP+Greens+Alba and the previously one, Survation I think, having 49%. If a majority of Scots vote for parties opposed to a second referendum Boris is entitled to say no unless he thinks there is a tactical advantage in saying yes.

    Secondly, the objective of a Unionist like me voting is to maximise the representation of Unionists in the Parliament. There are some interesting factors at play here. The SNP vote seems less enthused, the Greens tend to poll higher than they get and Alba are threatening to take away a couple of percent without making the threshold in some places. I agree an SNP+ Green coalition is very likely to have a majority, I want that majority to be as small as possible.
    On your first point I disagree. Democracy is people elected, not percentages. I don't think it's either acceptable or appropriate for the Tories to start saying who was elected doesn't matter and the voting system should be ignored.

    On your second point that is fair enough. But minimising the size of a majority is a different matter to removing the majority altogether.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924

    Cookie said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/02/face-masks-glass-screens-may-have-stay-beyond-june-21/
    Face masks likely to remain after 21st June.
    Cookie likely to continue witholding his vote from the Conservative party after 21st June.

    I can’t read that story because I’m not a subscriber. But remember all legal restrictions will go on 21 June according to the government’s own roadmap. Whether some venues keep glass screens, who knows?
    Is that what it says?

    ” Step 4 - not before 21 June
    Social contact
    By Step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June, the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact.

    Business, activities and events
    We hope to reopen remaining premises, including nightclubs, and ease the restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3. This will be subject to the results of a scientific Events Research Programme to test the outcome of certain pilot events through the spring and summer, where we will trial the use of testing and other techniques to cut the risk of infection. The same Events Research Programme will guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.”
    Well “all legal restrictions” is what Boris said - the words from him own mouth - so that’s the policy.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,624
    edited May 3

    geoffw said:

    Asked 17 yo granddaughter if she was voting on Thurs. "Oh yeah - SNP yay! We all hate the English." She's really intelligent but this is like voting people off Love Island.
    Depressed me no end.

    Did she really say 'We all hate the English'?
    She did. I took "we" to be her friends, not her family. Mind you, they are all stressed a bit atm with Highers substitute tests in school, so probably regard the Thursday election as an amusing diversion.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,738
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I’m old enough to remember when Alba were seen to be gaming the election.
    It doesn't seem to be working, does it? I am very surprised how little impact Salmond has had.
    I'm not, he's extremely unpopular outside of a few very hardcore supporters. It might just be enough for 1 or 2 seats. If he makes it into the Scottish parliament then that may change as people remember why they liked him in the first place but that barrier definitely exists.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,923
    Note for @Morris_Dancer if betting on the minor places in future GPs - check the weather forecast for wind speeds.

    ...“It was probably the most difficult race we’ve had since 2019,” said Russell, referring to his gruelling first season with the team when their car was the slowest in the field by far.

    “We’ve said it since the beginning – we know the strengths and we know the weaknesses of our car. It’s incredibly sensitive aerodynamically. And we saw at Imola when conditions were calmer, the performance was there. We saw yesterday in qualifying, the conditions calmed down for that Q2 run, and the performance was there, as it was in FP1.

    “Today it was nowhere. And unfortunately, that’s the nature of the beast with our car at the moment. We’ve had three races now, two of which have been very gusty and very exposed circuits, so fingers crossed we’re not talking about this all season.”...
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,451
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Asked 17 yo granddaughter if she was voting on Thurs. "Oh yeah - SNP yay! We all hate the English." She's really intelligent but this is like voting people off Love Island.
    Depressed me no end.

    Did she really say 'We all hate the English'?
    She did. I took "we" to be her friends, not her family. Mind you, they are all stressed a bit atm with Highers substitute tests in school, so probably regard the Thursday election as an amusing diversion.

    There is a deeply unpleasant undercurrent to any nationalist sentiment that it partly defines itself by who it opposes or hates.

    I’m sure she, and her friends, would all be mortified at being thought of as prejudiced too. Especially when the SNP is quite forward thinking on race issue.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,351

    In all this talk of indyref2, on the assumption Boris agrees to it, then surely it must be upto the HoC voting it through, and the HOC largely consists of anti indyref2 MPs

    Can someone confirm or otherwise the actual process of granting a sec 30 order as that would be most helpful

    Sec 30 orders require H o C approval.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,162
    edited May 3
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I’m old enough to remember when Alba were seen to be gaming the election.
    It doesn't seem to be working, does it? I am very surprised how little impact Salmond has had.
    I can still see Alba getting zero or (much less likely) six seats, a range of uncertainty quite unusual 4 days before an election.
    Salmond’s campaign does seem to have been pretty tin eared, those flagship, publicity seeking events are a bit sad. I believe OGH & TSE tend to say that you can’t beat personal ratings as a guide to performance, in that respect Salmond has a huge obstacle to get past.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I’m old enough to remember when Alba were seen to be gaming the election.
    It doesn't seem to be working, does it? I am very surprised how little impact Salmond has had.
    I'm not, he's extremely unpopular outside of a few very hardcore supporters. It might just be enough for 1 or 2 seats. If he makes it into the Scottish parliament then that may change as people remember why they liked him in the first place but that barrier definitely exists.
    He was the big beast of Scottish politics for a very long time.

    I think that I will leave that there, actually.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,311
    Mr. B, cheers for that note.

    The commentators also cited the wind (and traffic), but it was super windy in qualifying as well.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I’m old enough to remember when Alba were seen to be gaming the election.
    It doesn't seem to be working, does it? I am very surprised how little impact Salmond has had.
    I can still see Alba getting zero or (much less likely) six seats, a range of uncertainty quite unusual 4 days before an election.
    Salmond’s campaign does seem to have been pretty tin eared, those flagship, publicity seeking events are a bit sad. I believe OGH & TSE tend to say that you can’t beat personal ratings as a guide to performance, in that respect Salmond has a huge obstacle to get past.
    I am thinking more a couple. Himself in the NE and one in Highland. But I agree that the level of uncertainty is unusual.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I’m old enough to remember when Alba were seen to be gaming the election.
    It doesn't seem to be working, does it? I am very surprised how little impact Salmond has had.
    I'm not, he's extremely unpopular outside of a few very hardcore supporters. It might just be enough for 1 or 2 seats. If he makes it into the Scottish parliament then that may change as people remember why they liked him in the first place but that barrier definitely exists.
    Even if he gets elected as a glorified independent I suspect he will still cut a rather tragic figure rather than making people like him.

    He seems to be wanting to follow the Farage path of leading a pressure group and being elected is rather secondary. But Farage was never in Parliament let alone a former Prime Minister, he was a consummate outsider. I don't think it works in the same way for a former First Minister.

    If Farage had formerly been Prime Minister then standing and failing to be elected at General Elections would have been perceived as a failure not as "wow they got 12%".
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,890
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
    303 is a strange choice for a Leavermobile like a Jag XE.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,157
    edited May 3

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I think you're being incredibly optimistic.

    I just don't see any way possible that the SNP+Greens won't have a majority, not without a mammoth polling turnabout/catastrophe.
    If we put the best opinion poll [the latest ComRes] for Unionists into a swingometer, then we see that the SNP lose 2 list seats, the Tories lose 3 list seats and the Greens gain 5 list seats. Nationalists 72 - 57 Unionists, a Nationalist majority of 15.

    If you take an optimistic scenario for Unionists, and believe that Sarwar's positive ratings will produce a swing to Labour compared to the best opinion poll, let's say a 3-point SNP-Labour swing, then that results in the SNP losing a constituency seat to the Tories and Labour gaining a list seat from the SNP and two list seats from the Tories (there may be some churn beneath these headline numbers). Overall, Nationalists 70 - 59 Unionists.

    If you're very optimistic, and you give Labour a 5% swing from the SNP on the most favourable recent poll, then there are more complicated changes - including Labour starting to make constituency gains from the SNP. Overall, Nationalists 66 - 63 Unionists.

    If you continue increasing the SNP - Labour swing, from the most favourable recent opinion poll, then you don't reach a majority for Unionists at Holyrood until the swing is 6% in Labour's favour. The mountain for Labour to climb in the constituencies is high, and with the Greens making gains in the list, and the Tory leader in Scotland polling so poorly, it's only Labour gains in the constituencies that can prevent a Nationalist majority in Scotland at this election. But, who knows, Unionists will have to have a bit of optimism to keep them going.

    My seat to watch is therefore Dunfermline, where the SNP majority over Labour was 4,558 votes in 2016.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523
    eek said:

    eek said:

    A survey commissioned by These Islands has revealed widespread fact denial within the Scottish electorate and deep confusion over the SNP’s independence plans, particularly with respect to currency. Survation surveyed 1,047 people aged 16+ living in Scotland. Fieldwork was conducted 21st - 23rd April 2021.

    57% of Scottish independence supporters agree with the statement “The figures used to calculate Scotland’s deficit (the GERS figures) are made up by Westminster to hide Scotland's true wealth” and 90% of those considered the statement to be “important” or “very important” to their opinion on Scottish independence.
    The reality of Scotland’s deficit position is shown in the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures published by the Scottish Government. These figures qualify as National Statistics and are compiled by the Scottish Government’s own statisticians and economists. It should be deeply shocking that most independence supporters agree with the statement above – the figures are demonstrably not “made up by Westminster” and it is fantastical to believe that an SNP Government would choose to publish figures which “hide Scotland’s true wealth”. The First Minister is a gifted communicator, but is strangely reluctant to nail this corrosive myth.


    https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i374/scottish_politics_in_the_grip_of_a_fact_denial_epidemic.aspx

    Oh that explains MalcolmG but how do you solve that issue in a way the SNP can't escape from.
    As far as I can see the majority of pro Indy voters don’t want to confront the economics of independence. That’s fine.
    Well we left the EU without regard to the economic consequences so it makes perfect sense that Scotland may do the same
    But we have been constantly berated for doing that.

    Most loudly by the Scots. Heaven forbid they should be, you know, hypocrites....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,311
    Mr. Mark, by the SNP. Advocates for leaving the EU (and the UK) and 'outraged' by leaving the EU as part of the UK.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
    303 is a strange choice for a Leavermobile like a Jag XE.
    Exactly. But not all Jag drivers would be Brexiters, who in any case were putting photos of Polish squadrons from the Battle of Britain on their bumf.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I think you're being incredibly optimistic.

    I just don't see any way possible that the SNP+Greens won't have a majority, not without a mammoth polling turnabout/catastrophe.
    If we put the best opinion poll [the latest ComRes] for Unionists into a swingometer, then we see that the SNP lose 2 list seats, the Tories lose 3 list seats and the Greens gain 5 list seats. Nationalists 72 - 57 Unionists, a Nationalist majority of 15.

    If you take an optimistic scenario for Unionists, and believe that Sarwar's positive ratings will produce a swing to Labour compared to the best opinion poll, let's say a 3-point SNP-Labour swing, then that results in the SNP losing a constituency seat to the Tories and Labour gaining a list seat from the SNP and two list seats from the Tories (there may be some churn beneath these headline numbers). Overall, Nationalists 70 - 59 Unionists.

    If you're very optimistic, and you give Labour a 5% swing from the SNP on the most favourable recent poll, then there are more complicated changes - including Labour starting to make constituency gains from the SNP. Overall, Nationalists 66 - 63 Unionists.

    If you continue increasing the SNP - Labour swing, from the most favourable recent opinion poll, then you don't reach a majority for Unionists at Holyrood until the swing is 6% in Labour's favour. The mountain for Labour to climb in the constituencies is high, and with the Greens making gains in the list, and the Tory leader in Scotland polling so poorly, it's only Labour gains in the constituencies that can prevent a Nationalist majority in Scotland at this election. But, who knows, Unionists will have to have a bit of optimism to keep them going.

    My seat to watch is therefore Dunfermline, where the SNP majority over Labour was 4,558 votes in 2016.
    There are a few other factors as if that were not complicated enough. Firstly, the Greens have consistently got fewer votes than their polling and the SNP are being much more aggressive about the 2 votes for the SNP than they have been in the past. I wouldn't be too surprised to see them go backwards to be honest with a loss of tactical SNP voters, especially given the Alba option.

    Secondly, there may well be larger regional swings if the Unionist vote improves its efficiency. I am hoping Labour do well in Glasgow and the urban west and that the Tories make modest gains in the northeast and south Perthshire. It is going to be Sunday before we know the final score which is more than a bit frustrating.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,857
    edited May 3
    algarkirk said:

    In all this talk of indyref2, on the assumption Boris agrees to it, then surely it must be upto the HoC voting it through, and the HOC largely consists of anti indyref2 MPs

    Can someone confirm or otherwise the actual process of granting a sec 30 order as that would be most helpful

    Sec 30 orders require H o C approval.
    Which will never be won, for the foreseeable. Even in a free vote. Labour is terrified of losing Scotland, it's best chance of recovering - properly - in the UK. The Tories are mostly unionists who will say No to indyref2

    There will be a few maverick ultra-democrats around the House will will agree, plus all the smaller parties - PC, Dildos-R-Us, Alliance, Lib Dems? - but, in a free vote, Sindyef2 would be voted down by the combined MPs of the UK parties about 400-100

    Before it gets there Boris should announce a Grand Constitutional Convention, to thrash out the various alternative scenarios for a post-Brexit, post-Covid reset, a settlement that lasts. This should include Scottish indy BUT the Convention should also seek to answer the questions: what does indy actually look like? No more blind referendums like Brexit

    Let that go away and ponder for a few years. Then vote, including indy if the Scots want

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,923
    edited May 3

    Mr. B, cheers for that note.

    The commentators also cited the wind (and traffic), but it was super windy in qualifying as well.

    Note both Russell and Hamilton had their quickest laps in Q2 when the wind was lowest. And it was stronger still on Sunday.

    Basically the Williams can be quick, but it's an untrustworthy beast for betting on.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    In all this talk of indyref2, on the assumption Boris agrees to it, then surely it must be upto the HoC voting it through, and the HOC largely consists of anti indyref2 MPs

    Can someone confirm or otherwise the actual process of granting a sec 30 order as that would be most helpful

    Sec 30 orders require H o C approval.
    Which will never be won, for the foreseeable. Even in a free vote. Labour is terrified of losing Scotland, it's best chance of recovering - properly - in the UK. The Tories are mostly unionists who will say No to indyref2

    There will be a few maverick ultra-democrats around the House will will agree, plus all the smaller parties - PC, Dildos-R-Us, Alliance, Lib Dems? - but, in a free vote, Sindyef2 would be voted down by the combined MPs of the UK parties about 400-100

    Before it gets there Boris should announce a Grand Constitutional Convention, to thrash out the various alternative scenarios for a post-Brexit, post-Covid reset, a settlement that lasts. This should include Scottish indy BUT the Convention should also seek to answer the questions: what does indy actually look like? No more blind referendums like Brexit

    Let that go away and ponder for a few years. Then vote, including indy if the Scots want

    If Boris agrees to a Section 30 order then it's happening. No question about that.

    With the Tories and SNP in favour, it would take about 100 rebels to vote it down.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,351

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    Do you really want Gove and Johnson front and centre of an Indyref2 campaign?

    Gove the living embodiment of the scorpion in the story of The Scorpion and the frog and Boris Johnson who might be facing legal and tax problems relating to his finances.

    You know things like pile the bodies high stuff will be there.
    I don't think Johnson could resist. Like Trump, the only bits he enjoys about politics are the adoring crowds while campaigning, the groupies and the trappings of power. He is bored by the day job. Johnson is incapable of resisting that heffalump trap.

    Like @DavidL I think a further defeat would be the last referendum in a long time, and the SNP would go into feuding decline, as it did post 1978. Obviously a successful indyvote would open a whole new can of worms, but like Brexit would be unstoppable, even though similarly nearly evenly split.

    The SNP going into feuding decline would almost certainly mean a major Labour comeback in Scotland. I doubt the Tories would want that. The current state of affairs suits them fine as they get to play their English nationalism off against the SNP's Scottish nationalism. Both parties need each other.

    Ain´t that the truth.

    However I do detect a growing weariness with the polarising nastiness on offer. I will make a modest prediction therefore that the Tories and the SNP will be down a bit overall and Labour and the Lib Dems will both make gains.
    And on that last point I am off out to finish a final LD leaflet round.
    Persuaded my daughter to vote LD on the list in mid Scotland and Fife yesterday. They are the Unionist most vulnerable to a surge in Green or Alba support. She is voting for Fraser against Swinney in the constituency. The relevant question everywhere is which Unionist needs the most support/has the best chance of winning? There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the nationalists getting a majority.
    I think you're being incredibly optimistic.

    I just don't see any way possible that the SNP+Greens won't have a majority, not without a mammoth polling turnabout/catastrophe.
    If we put the best opinion poll [the latest ComRes] for Unionists into a swingometer, then we see that the SNP lose 2 list seats, the Tories lose 3 list seats and the Greens gain 5 list seats. Nationalists 72 - 57 Unionists, a Nationalist majority of 15.

    If you take an optimistic scenario for Unionists, and believe that Sarwar's positive ratings will produce a swing to Labour compared to the best opinion poll, let's say a 3-point SNP-Labour swing, then that results in the SNP losing a constituency seat to the Tories and Labour gaining a list seat from the SNP and two list seats from the Tories (there may be some churn beneath these headline numbers). Overall, Nationalists 70 - 59 Unionists.

    If you're very optimistic, and you give Labour a 5% swing from the SNP on the most favourable recent poll, then there are more complicated changes - including Labour starting to make constituency gains from the SNP. Overall, Nationalists 66 - 63 Unionists.

    If you continue increasing the SNP - Labour swing, from the most favourable recent opinion poll, then you don't reach a majority for Unionists at Holyrood until the swing is 6% in Labour's favour. The mountain for Labour to climb in the constituencies is high, and with the Greens making gains in the list, and the Tory leader in Scotland polling so poorly, it's only Labour gains in the constituencies that can prevent a Nationalist majority in Scotland at this election. But, who knows, Unionists will have to have a bit of optimism to keep them going.

    My seat to watch is therefore Dunfermline, where the SNP majority over Labour was 4,558 votes in 2016.
    The toughest result for Nicola is one where separatists get a decent majority of seats but polling continues split on independence and the actual voting figures show the same close split.

    It would be a decent though not great result for Boris, because it gives him reasons for both Yes and No to Ref2, which enables him to control the timing and the process.

    Perhaps the dilemma is going to be greater for Nicola than for Boris, as it is fairly obvious the hurdles to independence are going to be too great but she will have the seat numbers.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970
    I could see a second IndyRef going either way, either a narrow win for independence or even a small swing to No/Remain over and above 2014.

    Rather than try and game it I'd favour a clean fight on a pre-negotiated package (if no SNP engagement on that then no referendum) and then go for a "Scotland benefits in the UK" approach, rather than Project Fear.

    I think fronting it with Boris and Gove would be suicide. Hunt or Truss would be far better.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,890
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
    303 is a strange choice for a Leavermobile like a Jag XE.
    Exactly. But not all Jag drivers would be Brexiters, who in any case were putting photos of Polish squadrons from the Battle of Britain on their bumf.
    That is true. They could just have tragic taste in cars.

    My late father was an ardent Europhile (worked at the British Embassy and Brookings Institute in Brussels) and he had a Series 3 XJ6. He bought it new and it had visible rust on the A pillar within a year and a never ending series of electrical problems that defied all attempts at diagnosis and rectification.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155
    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,834
    edited May 3
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What’s to come if SNP take Holyrood. Sturgeon throws down gauntlet to PM: If UK govt doesn’t challenge the Scot govt in court, referendum wld be legal. Govt insiders concede there’s no choice but to fight in court, with all the political danger that brings
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence-referendum-would-be-legal-unless-court-blocks-it-12292827

    I’m not convinced Nicola Sturgeon’s grasp of law is all it might be (and I’m not talking about her nobbling the AG either).

    If I fail to injunct a burglar from breaking into my house, that doesn’t mean I agree with their actions or make them legal.

    Or perhaps a better parallel, if I fail to take pre-emptive legal action against the teenager who rides an unlicensed scrambler bike up and down my road at 50mph, that doesn’t suddenly mean he’s OK to do it.
    For me it's a bit like Jerry Hall and Mick Jagger's non-legal wedding. Nobody prevented that happening, but that's not the same as the results having the same consequences under the law as an officially recognised marriage.

    It's interesting how the Tories and the SNP are essentially fighting using exactly the same election campaign platform, but from opposing sides. They both agree that it spells Indyref 2 if the SNP win, because both believe it's in their interests for it to be believed. Stories like the above are good for both of them.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,916

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What’s to come if SNP take Holyrood. Sturgeon throws down gauntlet to PM: If UK govt doesn’t challenge the Scot govt in court, referendum wld be legal. Govt insiders concede there’s no choice but to fight in court, with all the political danger that brings
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence-referendum-would-be-legal-unless-court-blocks-it-12292827

    Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.

    ......and the reply is that 40% of a 70% turnout doesn't demonstrate a desire for a Boris Johnson led government.
    No equivalence really. We have to have a government after all. Independence is a very major constitutional change. I can't believe the number of people siding with the SNP just because it will annoy Boris.

    I also want someone to ask Sturgeon WHEN she would hold a referendum if it was granted.
    I agree. It is diffcult to overestimate the loathing and desire for revenge many feel towards Boris Johnson. Not primarily because he's a crooked lying bastard but because he was responsible for taking us out of the EU
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    The collapse in the Green vote from what it's polling would have to be absolutely remarkable though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,857
    The beastly weather might play a part in this election.

    I see right now in Glasgow it is lashing with rain, and 7C. So a relatively, decent early-summer day by Scotch standards

    But on some models the weather then worsens, Thursday might be a stinker

    Ditto across much of the UK, expect another bizarrely cold week, only this with much more rain

    Cheers!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What’s to come if SNP take Holyrood. Sturgeon throws down gauntlet to PM: If UK govt doesn’t challenge the Scot govt in court, referendum wld be legal. Govt insiders concede there’s no choice but to fight in court, with all the political danger that brings
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence-referendum-would-be-legal-unless-court-blocks-it-12292827

    I’m not convinced Nicola Sturgeon’s grasp of law is all it might be (and I’m not talking about her nobbling the AG either).

    If I fail to injunct a burglar from breaking into my house, that doesn’t mean I agree with their actions or make them legal.

    Or perhaps a better parallel, if I fail to take pre-emptive legal action against the teenager who rides an unlicensed scrambler bike up and down my road at 50mph, that doesn’t suddenly mean he’s OK to do it.
    For me it's a bit like Jerry Hall and Mick Jagger's non-legal wedding. Nobody prevented that happening, but that's not the same as the results having the same consequences under the law as an officially recognised marriage.

    It's interesting how the Tories and the SNP are essentially fighting using exactly the same election campaign platform, but from opposing sides. They both agree that it spells Indyref 2 if the SNP win, because both believe it's in their interests for it to be believed. Stories like the above are good for both of them.
    Hands down you win PB. That’s the best, worst analogy on here in 16 years. Nice work.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 326

    Cookie said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/02/face-masks-glass-screens-may-have-stay-beyond-june-21/
    Face masks likely to remain after 21st June.
    Cookie likely to continue witholding his vote from the Conservative party after 21st June.

    I can’t read that story because I’m not a subscriber. But remember all legal restrictions will go on 21 June according to the government’s own roadmap. Whether some venues keep glass screens, who knows?
    Is that what it says?

    ” Step 4 - not before 21 June
    Social contact
    By Step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June, the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact.

    Business, activities and events
    We hope to reopen remaining premises, including nightclubs, and ease the restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3. This will be subject to the results of a scientific Events Research Programme to test the outcome of certain pilot events through the spring and summer, where we will trial the use of testing and other techniques to cut the risk of infection. The same Events Research Programme will guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.”
    This could be a misleading statement by the government. Even if legal restrictions are removed, the restrictions will remain in all public services until the advice is changed. In many areas the restrictions will remain in full force as long as the "hands, face, space" advice continues. June 21 could easily be a huge anticlimax.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970
    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    We could all use some LOLs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    The collapse in the Green vote from what it's polling would have to be absolutely remarkable though.
    I try not to let my strong belief that they are contemptible little sh1ts influence me too strongly but in 2016, for example, they were polling 10% and got 6.6%. My recollection is that something similar happened in 2011.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    Leon said:

    The beastly weather might play a part in this election.

    I see right now in Glasgow it is lashing with rain, and 7C. So a relatively, decent early-summer day by Scotch standards

    But on some models the weather then worsens, Thursday might be a stinker

    Ditto across much of the UK, expect another bizarrely cold week, only this with much more rain

    Cheers!

    And a much warmer weekend next weekend...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,738

    Leon said:

    The beastly weather might play a part in this election.

    I see right now in Glasgow it is lashing with rain, and 7C. So a relatively, decent early-summer day by Scotch standards

    But on some models the weather then worsens, Thursday might be a stinker

    Ditto across much of the UK, expect another bizarrely cold week, only this with much more rain

    Cheers!

    And a much warmer weekend next weekend...
    Still pissing it down with rain though. The lockdown gods are having one last laugh before we can socialise indoors.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,857
    edited May 3

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    In all this talk of indyref2, on the assumption Boris agrees to it, then surely it must be upto the HoC voting it through, and the HOC largely consists of anti indyref2 MPs

    Can someone confirm or otherwise the actual process of granting a sec 30 order as that would be most helpful

    Sec 30 orders require H o C approval.
    Which will never be won, for the foreseeable. Even in a free vote. Labour is terrified of losing Scotland, it's best chance of recovering - properly - in the UK. The Tories are mostly unionists who will say No to indyref2

    There will be a few maverick ultra-democrats around the House will will agree, plus all the smaller parties - PC, Dildos-R-Us, Alliance, Lib Dems? - but, in a free vote, Sindyef2 would be voted down by the combined MPs of the UK parties about 400-100

    Before it gets there Boris should announce a Grand Constitutional Convention, to thrash out the various alternative scenarios for a post-Brexit, post-Covid reset, a settlement that lasts. This should include Scottish indy BUT the Convention should also seek to answer the questions: what does indy actually look like? No more blind referendums like Brexit

    Let that go away and ponder for a few years. Then vote, including indy if the Scots want

    If Boris agrees to a Section 30 order then it's happening. No question about that.

    With the Tories and SNP in favour, it would take about 100 rebels to vote it down.
    But you're delusional. No way would Boris risk it. Also, he is morally right. Once in a generation. At what a point a generation is passed is a decision taken by all of Britain, via its MPs: on the rights and wrongs of another Sindyref.

    If you give in to the SNP demand now, then you have to give in every time they ask (otherwise, what are your criteria for allowing one, or not?). Every time the NATs have a majority, have a new indy vote. Heck, have one every year. Every six months.

    Permitting Sindyref is a UK-wise issue, decided by all of the UK's MPs, including Scots, in the measured interests of all four nations. If the vote is permitted, then, of course, it is for Scots alone to choose Yea or Nay

    You might believe a British refusal will stoke sentiment for YES, so a refusal is blinkered - but that's a different issue. Boris is gonna say Naw, and that's it
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,916
    For those who haven't read Laura K's thoughts on Boris Johnson's relationship with 'truth'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56624437
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,834
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
    I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
    That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
    I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.

    Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.

    The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.

    Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
    Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
    I respect those arguments. The problem is that so many people remember all of the other disastrous decisions made by Johnson during the pandemic and the much better decisions made by Sturgeon. And Johnson refusing to answer questions and Sturgeon doing so every day.

    Then we have the Big Picture.
    England - "we have you vaccines and furlough, what are you complaining about?"
    Scotland - "I am a prisoner, you let me vote but refuse to accept what I vote for"
    England - "bloody jocks, shut up and do what we tell you"
    I don't think Sturgeon made better decisions. We are still much more locked down than England despite a vanishingly low level of infection. She has consistently overdone lockdown with a casual indifference to its economic cost just to be different and show how much she "cares". Our disaster on residential homes was at least as bad as that in England, arguably worse, the education of our children has been handled even more badly than by Williamson, a truly astounding achievement and our vaccine roll out has been slower and more bureaucratic.

    I also don't understand your second point. We will, sadly, have yet another SNP administration looking to pick arguments, focused on short term freebies, indifferent to Scotland's actual needs unless they are relevant to the great god independence, and all too often not even then because they are too thick to see it.
    Markedly different death rates in the later stages of the pandemic. That counts for a lot.
    Don't forget keeping Corona funding to help businesses back so voters could be showered with free iPads and bikes nearer the election. They really are a loathsome shower.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460
    Scott_xP said:

    Is it any surprise that a campaign by Little Englanders for Little Englanders did not win majority support in Scotland?

    They should definitely have another go...

    Sunak says Scottish independence would wreck UK economy. Surely Scotland regaining its independence would save the UK billions in subsidies?..Oh wait a minute.............
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970
    I'm so fed up of lockdown. What a waste of everyone's time and lives.

    The idea masks contribute anything once 90%+ of the population are fully vaccinated is for the birds. I presume it's some sort of of cosmetic placebo, to remind people the virus "hasn't gone away", but you could fit a condom onto a cucumber for all the good it'd do, and strap it onto your head.

    I hate masks. Three days for HMG to end the bullshit or I'm strop-voting for the yellow peril.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    edited May 3
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
    303 is a strange choice for a Leavermobile like a Jag XE.
    Exactly. But not all Jag drivers would be Brexiters, who in any case were putting photos of Polish squadrons from the Battle of Britain on their bumf.
    That is true. They could just have tragic taste in cars.

    My late father was an ardent Europhile (worked at the British Embassy and Brookings Institute in Brussels) and he had a Series 3 XJ6. He bought it new and it had visible rust on the A pillar within a year and a never ending series of electrical problems that defied all attempts at diagnosis and rectification.
    My dad had a V12 XJ.

    Brilliant fun, but a plumbing nightmare when a heating hose went, and thirstier than @SeanT on a bender.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
    303 is a strange choice for a Leavermobile like a Jag XE.
    Exactly. But not all Jag drivers would be Brexiters, who in any case were putting photos of Polish squadrons from the Battle of Britain on their bumf.
    That is true. They could just have tragic taste in cars.

    My late father was an ardent Europhile (worked at the British Embassy and Brookings Institute in Brussels) and he had a Series 3 XJ6. He bought it new and it had visible rust on the A pillar within a year and a never ending series of electrical problems that defied all attempts at diagnosis and rectification.
    My late father had a similar experience, if not so grand. Being a patriot he signed up to buy a brand new Austin Metro on its launch in 1980, something that was supposed to revitalise UK car manufacturing. Possibly the only brand new car he ever had. It was an absolute dog of a car, unreliable, appalling electrics, terrible brakes. I think he persevered with it for about 3 years before enough was enough.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,857
    edited May 3

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    We could all use some LOLs.
    It's utterly grisly now, isn't it?

    And I know I bang on about the weather, but this sense of mounting frustration really is partly to do with the weather. Sitting outside a pub in 9C and light rain is just Not Fun, no matter how great it is that they are open. That's if you can get in a beer garden without booking 5 days ahead.

    The lockdown PLUS relentless cold and now rain, is a cup of cold sick with a side order of bile.

    Enough
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    The collapse in the Green vote from what it's polling would have to be absolutely remarkable though.
    I try not to let my strong belief that they are contemptible little sh1ts influence me too strongly but in 2016, for example, they were polling 10% and got 6.6%. My recollection is that something similar happened in 2011.
    10% was very much the exception not the norm in 2016 for them. 6.6% was pretty close to almost all of the polls for them. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Scottish_Parliament_election
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    In all this talk of indyref2, on the assumption Boris agrees to it, then surely it must be upto the HoC voting it through, and the HOC largely consists of anti indyref2 MPs

    Can someone confirm or otherwise the actual process of granting a sec 30 order as that would be most helpful

    Sec 30 orders require H o C approval.
    Which will never be won, for the foreseeable. Even in a free vote. Labour is terrified of losing Scotland, it's best chance of recovering - properly - in the UK. The Tories are mostly unionists who will say No to indyref2

    There will be a few maverick ultra-democrats around the House will will agree, plus all the smaller parties - PC, Dildos-R-Us, Alliance, Lib Dems? - but, in a free vote, Sindyef2 would be voted down by the combined MPs of the UK parties about 400-100

    Before it gets there Boris should announce a Grand Constitutional Convention, to thrash out the various alternative scenarios for a post-Brexit, post-Covid reset, a settlement that lasts. This should include Scottish indy BUT the Convention should also seek to answer the questions: what does indy actually look like? No more blind referendums like Brexit

    Let that go away and ponder for a few years. Then vote, including indy if the Scots want

    Stick your Convention up your jacksie, nothing to do with anyone south of Gretna
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Leon said:

    The beastly weather might play a part in this election.

    I see right now in Glasgow it is lashing with rain, and 7C. So a relatively, decent early-summer day by Scotch standards

    But on some models the weather then worsens, Thursday might be a stinker

    Ditto across much of the UK, expect another bizarrely cold week, only this with much more rain

    Cheers!

    I am off to meet some friends for a drink. Long Johns and raincoat...
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,498
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is it any surprise that a campaign by Little Englanders for Little Englanders did not win majority support in Scotland?

    They should definitely have another go...

    Sunak says Scottish independence would wreck UK economy. Surely Scotland regaining its independence would save the UK billions in subsidies?..Oh wait a minute.............
    Except Sunak didn’t say that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    BoZo is in Hartlepool
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    The collapse in the Green vote from what it's polling would have to be absolutely remarkable though.
    I try not to let my strong belief that they are contemptible little sh1ts influence me too strongly but in 2016, for example, they were polling 10% and got 6.6%. My recollection is that something similar happened in 2011.
    10% was very much the exception not the norm in 2016 for them. 6.6% was pretty close to almost all of the polls for them. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Scottish_Parliament_election
    Its quite a difficult chart to read and the fact that the Greens are under others, unlike the Lib Dems, doesn't help but I am seeing 3 polls at 10 and 1 at 11 in the last week.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,628
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is it any surprise that a campaign by Little Englanders for Little Englanders did not win majority support in Scotland?

    They should definitely have another go...

    Sunak says Scottish independence would wreck UK economy. Surely Scotland regaining its independence would save the UK billions in subsidies?..Oh wait a minute.............
    Without reading the report, perhaps he was referring to the disruption in trade? It isn’t as if the situation will be identical just without fiscal transfer.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,157
    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    Yes. That scenario is probably more likely than a Unionist majority, and I'm sure Sturgeon would be very uncomfortable with it, but I can't bring myself to want to see Salmond in Holyrood.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,834
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What’s to come if SNP take Holyrood. Sturgeon throws down gauntlet to PM: If UK govt doesn’t challenge the Scot govt in court, referendum wld be legal. Govt insiders concede there’s no choice but to fight in court, with all the political danger that brings
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence-referendum-would-be-legal-unless-court-blocks-it-12292827

    I’m not convinced Nicola Sturgeon’s grasp of law is all it might be (and I’m not talking about her nobbling the AG either).

    If I fail to injunct a burglar from breaking into my house, that doesn’t mean I agree with their actions or make them legal.

    Or perhaps a better parallel, if I fail to take pre-emptive legal action against the teenager who rides an unlicensed scrambler bike up and down my road at 50mph, that doesn’t suddenly mean he’s OK to do it.
    For me it's a bit like Jerry Hall and Mick Jagger's non-legal wedding. Nobody prevented that happening, but that's not the same as the results having the same consequences under the law as an officially recognised marriage.

    It's interesting how the Tories and the SNP are essentially fighting using exactly the same election campaign platform, but from opposing sides. They both agree that it spells Indyref 2 if the SNP win, because both believe it's in their interests for it to be believed. Stories like the above are good for both of them.
    Hands down you win PB. That’s the best, worst analogy on here in 16 years. Nice work.
    Thanks. :grin: We aim to please.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is in Hartlepool

    So they think that they are going to win then?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,162
    edited May 3
    Informative and nuanced thread (information and nuance not everyone's cup of tea, I understand) from the Constitution Director at the Cabinet Office who helped agree the framework for the Scottish independence referendum that the Unionists won.

    https://twitter.com/ciaranmartinoxf/status/1388903940482338817?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,628
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What’s to come if SNP take Holyrood. Sturgeon throws down gauntlet to PM: If UK govt doesn’t challenge the Scot govt in court, referendum wld be legal. Govt insiders concede there’s no choice but to fight in court, with all the political danger that brings
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence-referendum-would-be-legal-unless-court-blocks-it-12292827

    Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.

    ......and the reply is that 40% of a 70% turnout doesn't demonstrate a desire for a Boris Johnson led government.
    No equivalence really. We have to have a government after all. Independence is a very major constitutional change. I can't believe the number of people siding with the SNP just because it will annoy Boris.

    I also want someone to ask Sturgeon WHEN she would hold a referendum if it was granted.
    I agree. It is diffcult to overestimate the loathing and desire for revenge many feel towards Boris Johnson. Not primarily because he's a crooked lying bastard but because he was responsible for taking us out of the EU
    Many? A fanatic minority, perhaps.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,843
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    We could all use some LOLs.
    It's utterly grisly now, isn't it?

    And I know I bang on about the weather, but this sense of mounting frustration really is partly to do with the weather. Sitting outside a pub in 9C and light rain is just Not Fun, no matter how great it is that they are open. That's if you can get in a beer garden without booking 5 days ahead.

    The lockdown PLUS relentless cold and now rain, is a cup of cold sick with a side order of bile.

    Enough
    Go out to somewhere you haven't been before and see something new.

    There's plenty of Britain between the twee and the wild.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,498

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is it any surprise that a campaign by Little Englanders for Little Englanders did not win majority support in Scotland?

    They should definitely have another go...

    Sunak says Scottish independence would wreck UK economy. Surely Scotland regaining its independence would save the UK billions in subsidies?..Oh wait a minute.............
    Except Sunak didn’t say that.
    To be clear -

    “Chancellor Rishi Sunak has warned that plans for a second Scottish independence referendum would “needlessly divide” the UK at the “worst possible time”, as the country recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.”
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,628

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is it any surprise that a campaign by Little Englanders for Little Englanders did not win majority support in Scotland?

    They should definitely have another go...

    Sunak says Scottish independence would wreck UK economy. Surely Scotland regaining its independence would save the UK billions in subsidies?..Oh wait a minute.............
    Except Sunak didn’t say that.
    Ah, I should have read the reports then. :D
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,157

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    The collapse in the Green vote from what it's polling would have to be absolutely remarkable though.
    Not really. The Green vote has a history of flattering in opinion polls. They polled in the range 6-11% in the run-up to 2016, and are now polling in the range 7-12%. Alba and the Greens might end up battling it out for the final list seat, if Alba end up receiving votes at the top end of their polling range.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,741
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is in Hartlepool

    So they think that they are going to win then?
    They were always going to
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What’s to come if SNP take Holyrood. Sturgeon throws down gauntlet to PM: If UK govt doesn’t challenge the Scot govt in court, referendum wld be legal. Govt insiders concede there’s no choice but to fight in court, with all the political danger that brings
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence-referendum-would-be-legal-unless-court-blocks-it-12292827

    Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.

    ......and the reply is that 40% of a 70% turnout doesn't demonstrate a desire for a Boris Johnson led government.
    No equivalence really. We have to have a government after all. Independence is a very major constitutional change. I can't believe the number of people siding with the SNP just because it will annoy Boris.

    I also want someone to ask Sturgeon WHEN she would hold a referendum if it was granted.
    I agree. It is diffcult to overestimate the loathing and desire for revenge many feel towards Boris Johnson. Not primarily because he's a crooked lying bastard but because he was responsible for taking us out of the EU
    Many? A fanatic minority, perhaps.
    Surely not, its everyone that @Roger knows for a start!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,857

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    We could all use some LOLs.
    It's utterly grisly now, isn't it?

    And I know I bang on about the weather, but this sense of mounting frustration really is partly to do with the weather. Sitting outside a pub in 9C and light rain is just Not Fun, no matter how great it is that they are open. That's if you can get in a beer garden without booking 5 days ahead.

    The lockdown PLUS relentless cold and now rain, is a cup of cold sick with a side order of bile.

    Enough
    Go out to somewhere you haven't been before and see something new.

    There's plenty of Britain between the twee and the wild.
    I fucking hate Britain. Break it up, it's done. Stupid shitty island with "chips for tea"

    As soon as they open the borders - Va-da-fucking-boom. I'm bugging out for the sun and I won't come back to Plague Island until mid 2023, earliest
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is in Hartlepool

    So they think that they are going to win then?
    *second mp anecdote* second mp discussion a few days ago, a new red waller who was in hartlepool, looks good confident, but they've got no historical data to work off. Flying blind.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    The collapse in the Green vote from what it's polling would have to be absolutely remarkable though.
    I try not to let my strong belief that they are contemptible little sh1ts influence me too strongly but in 2016, for example, they were polling 10% and got 6.6%. My recollection is that something similar happened in 2011.
    10% was very much the exception not the norm in 2016 for them. 6.6% was pretty close to almost all of the polls for them. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Scottish_Parliament_election
    Its quite a difficult chart to read and the fact that the Greens are under others, unlike the Lib Dems, doesn't help but I am seeing 3 polls at 10 and 1 at 11 in the last week.
    Not within the last week. Within the last week on AMS polls they have shares of 9, 7 and 6 versus an outcome of 6.6

    Over a longer timespan there are some 10s as you said, but there's also some 6s.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,472

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    We could all use some LOLs.
    It's utterly grisly now, isn't it?

    And I know I bang on about the weather, but this sense of mounting frustration really is partly to do with the weather. Sitting outside a pub in 9C and light rain is just Not Fun, no matter how great it is that they are open. That's if you can get in a beer garden without booking 5 days ahead.

    The lockdown PLUS relentless cold and now rain, is a cup of cold sick with a side order of bile.

    Enough
    Go out to somewhere you haven't been before and see something new.

    There's plenty of Britain between the twee and the wild.
    Sean’s just inflicting his London-centric misery on the rest of us. The grey city is a depressing place when you’re not allowed anywhere inside.

    Away from London, it’s been a dry month, with lots of sunshine, a lot less windy than usual (about to change down here!), ideal for any sort of strenuous outside activity, getting the garden in shape, or enjoying the warmth of the sun on a park bench, or behind a sunny window or conservatory.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,738
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/mind/vaccinated-wont-go-rise-covid-anxiety-syndrome/

    This is what Boris and JVT are fuelling with their comments about vaccines. It is completely selfish of them to try and cast doubt on vaccines being the end game solution to this because they don't want to give up their COVID powers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,304
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    We could all use some LOLs.
    It's utterly grisly now, isn't it?

    And I know I bang on about the weather, but this sense of mounting frustration really is partly to do with the weather. Sitting outside a pub in 9C and light rain is just Not Fun, no matter how great it is that they are open. That's if you can get in a beer garden without booking 5 days ahead.

    The lockdown PLUS relentless cold and now rain, is a cup of cold sick with a side order of bile.

    Enough
    No need to book at this little bar I go to.

    But I agree on the weather. Some heat is needed and is coming soon, one hopes.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    The collapse in the Green vote from what it's polling would have to be absolutely remarkable though.
    One can only hope. I've come to the conclusion that the Greens are the most devious, manipulative and dangerous political party we currently have in the UK. They are even more dangerous because of their absolute sense of righteousness of their cause, their desire to pursue their remedy for their problem at any and all costs, and the fact that voters are either neutral or see them in a positive light.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is in Hartlepool

    I might be losing my bet with @kinabalu then.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
    303 is a strange choice for a Leavermobile like a Jag XE.
    Exactly. But not all Jag drivers would be Brexiters, who in any case were putting photos of Polish squadrons from the Battle of Britain on their bumf.
    That is true. They could just have tragic taste in cars.

    My late father was an ardent Europhile (worked at the British Embassy and Brookings Institute in Brussels) and he had a Series 3 XJ6. He bought it new and it had visible rust on the A pillar within a year and a never ending series of electrical problems that defied all attempts at diagnosis and rectification.
    My late father had a similar experience, if not so grand. Being a patriot he signed up to buy a brand new Austin Metro on its launch in 1980, something that was supposed to revitalise UK car manufacturing. Possibly the only brand new car he ever had. It was an absolute dog of a car, unreliable, appalling electrics, terrible brakes. I think he persevered with it for about 3 years before enough was enough.
    It is shockingly remarkable just how reliable cars are now. Their biggest issues tend to not be mechanical but their desire to shove all their base models with technology which is less stable.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,023

    I'm so fed up of lockdown. What a waste of everyone's time and lives.

    The idea masks contribute anything once 90%+ of the population are fully vaccinated is for the birds. I presume it's some sort of of cosmetic placebo, to remind people the virus "hasn't gone away", but you could fit a condom onto a cucumber for all the good it'd do, and strap it onto your head.

    I hate masks. Three days for HMG to end the bullshit or I'm strop-voting for the yellow peril.

    The hypothesis that it's about a virus doesn't seem to fit post-Mar. 2020 events.

    Look at govt websites, consultations already gone through ... digital ID cards, cattle tags (sorry, 'COVID certificates'). See too 'partnership with the World Economic Forum' (WEF has repellent ideas, including masks for ever more https://choosing-him.blogspot.com/2021/04/the-wef-creates-prisoner-mask.html), '4th. industrial revolution', a biosecurity state (they don't yet call it that, 'digital health' is more likely.)

    Had it been about a virus the UK would have activated its existing 2011 pandemic plan. Regions that ended lockdown - like Florida - or never had it were applying WHO's long-lasting public health policy (WHO did a U-turn <14 months ago, funny that.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    We could all use some LOLs.
    It's utterly grisly now, isn't it?

    And I know I bang on about the weather, but this sense of mounting frustration really is partly to do with the weather. Sitting outside a pub in 9C and light rain is just Not Fun, no matter how great it is that they are open. That's if you can get in a beer garden without booking 5 days ahead.

    The lockdown PLUS relentless cold and now rain, is a cup of cold sick with a side order of bile.

    Enough
    Go out to somewhere you haven't been before and see something new.

    There's plenty of Britain between the twee and the wild.
    I fucking hate Britain. Break it up, it's done. Stupid shitty island with "chips for tea"

    As soon as they open the borders - Va-da-fucking-boom. I'm bugging out for the sun and I won't come back to Plague Island until mid 2023, earliest
    Except we will be the only-place-in-the-world-without-plague Island.

    Not really, of course, but not far from the truth!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,022
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What’s to come if SNP take Holyrood. Sturgeon throws down gauntlet to PM: If UK govt doesn’t challenge the Scot govt in court, referendum wld be legal. Govt insiders concede there’s no choice but to fight in court, with all the political danger that brings
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence-referendum-would-be-legal-unless-court-blocks-it-12292827

    Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.

    ......and the reply is that 40% of a 70% turnout doesn't demonstrate a desire for a Boris Johnson led government.
    No equivalence really. We have to have a government after all. Independence is a very major constitutional change. I can't believe the number of people siding with the SNP just because it will annoy Boris.

    I also want someone to ask Sturgeon WHEN she would hold a referendum if it was granted.
    I agree. It is diffcult to overestimate the loathing and desire for revenge many feel towards Boris Johnson. Not primarily because he's a crooked lying bastard but because he was responsible for taking us out of the EU
    Surely the 17,399,999 or so other voters are just as responsible? Or did Boris somehow cast all those votes himself?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,304

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is in Hartlepool

    I might be losing my bet with @kinabalu then.
    I do expect to win, yes, but it's not over till it's over. Labour holding Hartlepool would be a surprise rather than a shock. If they were to drift to something like 3.5 I'd consider backing them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
    303 is a strange choice for a Leavermobile like a Jag XE.
    Exactly. But not all Jag drivers would be Brexiters, who in any case were putting photos of Polish squadrons from the Battle of Britain on their bumf.
    That is true. They could just have tragic taste in cars.

    My late father was an ardent Europhile (worked at the British Embassy and Brookings Institute in Brussels) and he had a Series 3 XJ6. He bought it new and it had visible rust on the A pillar within a year and a never ending series of electrical problems that defied all attempts at diagnosis and rectification.
    My late father had a similar experience, if not so grand. Being a patriot he signed up to buy a brand new Austin Metro on its launch in 1980, something that was supposed to revitalise UK car manufacturing. Possibly the only brand new car he ever had. It was an absolute dog of a car, unreliable, appalling electrics, terrible brakes. I think he persevered with it for about 3 years before enough was enough.
    It is shockingly remarkable just how reliable cars are now. Their biggest issues tend to not be mechanical but their desire to shove all their base models with technology which is less stable.
    I have a 13 year old Fiat with not a spot of rust, and all the electrics work, never garaged. We didn't get that in my youth.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,857
    edited May 3
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    We could all use some LOLs.
    It's utterly grisly now, isn't it?

    And I know I bang on about the weather, but this sense of mounting frustration really is partly to do with the weather. Sitting outside a pub in 9C and light rain is just Not Fun, no matter how great it is that they are open. That's if you can get in a beer garden without booking 5 days ahead.

    The lockdown PLUS relentless cold and now rain, is a cup of cold sick with a side order of bile.

    Enough
    No need to book at this little bar I go to.

    But I agree on the weather. Some heat is needed and is coming soon, one hopes.
    I am a bit of a weather geek. Normally I keep it hidden but in this remarkable period of nastiness, I expose it mercilessly.

    Anyway, here is one forecast for Thursday. A maximum of 6-10C in many places, with heavy rain in the far south, lighter rain and SNOW in Northern England and Scotland


    https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&amp;charthour=78&amp;chartname=preciptype&amp;chartregion=uk&amp;charttag=Precip type


    Despite anabobazina's understandable hopecasting below, the central prediction right now is for a rather modest upturn this weekend, then right back to possibly-record cold and some rain the week after, with no end in sight (two weeks is about as far as you can reasonably model UK weather, and even then it's pushing envelopes)

    Look at the forecast for noon, Wed 12 May. The maximum across southern England is 4-8C. This is NOON not midnight. This is May not Jan

    https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&amp;charthour=78&amp;chartname=uk2mtmp&amp;chartregion=uk&amp;charttag=2m max temp (C)

    We are looking at an exceptional spell of weather, for all the wrong reasons
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155

    DavidL said:

    Of course a possible outcome in Scotland is SNP 60, Green 4, Alba 2 which would give Nicola a majority when she could rely on Salmond. Totally disastrous for the country of course but the LOLs would be notable.

    The collapse in the Green vote from what it's polling would have to be absolutely remarkable though.
    One can only hope. I've come to the conclusion that the Greens are the most devious, manipulative and dangerous political party we currently have in the UK. They are even more dangerous because of their absolute sense of righteousness of their cause, their desire to pursue their remedy for their problem at any and all costs, and the fact that voters are either neutral or see them in a positive light.
    A ridiculously generous assessment.
  • TresTres Posts: 594
    Roger said:

    For those who haven't read Laura K's thoughts on Boris Johnson's relationship with 'truth'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56624437

    Only Laura K could write so much wiffle-waffle (only 1 politician has ever lied to her!) without even mentioning that Johnson has been sacked from multiple jobs for lying.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This popped up uninvited on my FB. Perhaps an idea for the PB Jeg owners, particularly for campaigning in Indy ref II? Might sway the new Polish Scots..




    Fuck me. That's uglier than Alok Sharma's cum face.
    The reproduction of the Hurricane’s fabric covered, scalloped fuselage is the sign of a true pervert. Kudos to that man..
    So he has. But only the rear portion, rightly so. Did he put the serial on the tail?

    He's got the Polish national flash too and the relevant (303) squadron badge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/534872893228836405/
    303 is a strange choice for a Leavermobile like a Jag XE.
    Exactly. But not all Jag drivers would be Brexiters, who in any case were putting photos of Polish squadrons from the Battle of Britain on their bumf.
    That is true. They could just have tragic taste in cars.

    My late father was an ardent Europhile (worked at the British Embassy and Brookings Institute in Brussels) and he had a Series 3 XJ6. He bought it new and it had visible rust on the A pillar within a year and a never ending series of electrical problems that defied all attempts at diagnosis and rectification.
    My late father had a similar experience, if not so grand. Being a patriot he signed up to buy a brand new Austin Metro on its launch in 1980, something that was supposed to revitalise UK car manufacturing. Possibly the only brand new car he ever had. It was an absolute dog of a car, unreliable, appalling electrics, terrible brakes. I think he persevered with it for about 3 years before enough was enough.
    It is shockingly remarkable just how reliable cars are now. Their biggest issues tend to not be mechanical but their desire to shove all their base models with technology which is less stable.
    I have a 13 year old Fiat with not a spot of rust, and all the electrics work, never garaged. We didn't get that in my youth.
    You can get up at 6am, -5 outside and not have any thought that your car wont start... Of course these things do happen, but its not normal as it was in the past.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,924
    The European Commission said Monday it wants to ease restrictions on non-essential travel to the EU — with the caveat of including a mechanism allowing countries to act to counter the spread of any new coronavirus variants.

    "We propose to welcome again vaccinated visitors & those from countries with a good health situation. But if variants emerge we have to act fast: we propose an EU emergency brake mechanism," tweeted Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    The proposal would allow travelers from countries with a “good epidemiological situation” to enter, as well as people who can prove they have had the “last recommended dose of an EU-authorised vaccine” approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) at least 14 days prior to arrival, the Commission said.


    Until now, the Commission had only proposed lifting restrictions on arrivals from seven countries — Australia, New Zealand, Rwanda, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand with a similar plan for Chinese travelers pending a deal on reciprocity.

    In a background briefing for journalists, a Commission official said that if the new system were in place today, Israel would likely be included, but there would be “question marks” over the United Kingdom’s place on the list, while the United States would also “not quite” make it.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/commission-wants-to-reopen-europe-to-third-country-tourists/

    Good. People shouldn't be going to the EU anyway given the infection rates there:

    The new plan would also see the EU’s methodology for calculating which countries are safe rise from a 14-day cumulative notification caseload of 25 per 100,000 people to 100 per 100,000; the bloc’s own average is 420.
This discussion has been closed.