Just done a quick vaccine count calculation - by the end of May we'll reach 81-83% of adults with one dose and 50% of adults with two doses, that's with no increase in vaccine supply. Assuming the MHRA ever get around to approving Novavax that 81-83% becomes more like 87-89% leaving just 7-8% needing first doses (around one week of supply in June). By the time we hit June 21st everyone who wants a vaccine will have had a first dose and by the end of July every single person will have had both doses except a few unlucky people who get AZ in the next two to three weeks.
My dose yesterday was AZ, I'm guessing that means second dose won't be possible before 11 weeks from now? So about end of July?
Side effects wise I've had a splitting headache and sore arm. Hopefully that passes tomorrow.
When I had it the headache passed within a day but the sore arm lasted a week or so.
It looks like the Guardian did not understand what plot there was, if it thinks Thelma & Louise was a plot hole, and that is partly because writer Jed Mercurio spent most of the series misleading viewers on the nature and roles of H and the OCG. There have been plot holes aplenty over the years, and the introduction of whatever real-life news had made Mercurio's blood boil that summer – particularly racism and child sex abuse – did not help. But throughout the past decade it has been clear that Mercurio writes fantastically tense and engrossing set piece scenes but his plotting is badly flawed. You can't complain now. Even the second series, regarded by many as the best, with Keeley Hawes as Lindsay Denton, required Mercurio to tour television studios afterwards to explain what was supposed to have happened.
Can we all agree the worst ending ever was the one to Enterprise?
If this LoD ending was worse than that, it must have been bad.
I thought GoT was the worst ending (last entire season) ever.
I think the American version of House of Cards was even worse.
Breaking Bad and Sons of Anarchy on the other hand - great endings.
I never even got to that ending. The first series was great, the second mostly OK, but it got incredibly repetitive during the third, with the same plot setup used over and over, and I lost interest.
I believe the ending was poor partly because they had to drop the leading actor for reasons that are well known.
It looks like the Guardian did not understand what plot there was, if it thinks Thelma & Louise was a plot hole, and that is partly because writer Jed Mercurio spent most of the series misleading viewers on the nature and roles of H and the OCG. There have been plot holes aplenty over the years, and the introduction of whatever real-life news had made Mercurio's blood boil that summer – particularly racism and child sex abuse – did not help. But throughout the past decade it has been clear that Mercurio writes fantastically tense and engrossing set piece scenes but his plotting is badly flawed. You can't complain now. Even the second series, regarded by many as the best, with Keeley Hawes as Lindsay Denton, required Mercurio to tour television studios afterwards to explain what was supposed to have happened.
Here is to series 7, if there is one.
If there is one I hope Chloe, who seemed to do all the detective work, gets more prominence and some credit.
On the topic of good or bad TV endings, the best has to be the finale of M*A*S*H
Not seen it. But Blackadder has to be up there, no?
Yes I'd put that up there too.
That's probably my second favourite.
What about the ending of 'It Ain't Half Hot, Mum'? That brought a tear to my eye!
Yes, an excellent ending. Sgt Major Williams cut a rather pathetic figure stripped of all of his power over the men who couldn’t even be bothered to tell him what they thought of him athough they’d rehearsed it.
You Rang My Lord had a really good ending as well.
The ending of Blake’s Seven was a belter.
Like the First World War song, When this Bloody War is Over. I will tell the sergeant major to stick his passes up his arse. (and more in that vein, nsfw). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_m4bqD2z-sw
It looks like the Guardian did not understand what plot there was, if it thinks Thelma & Louise was a plot hole, and that is partly because writer Jed Mercurio spent most of the series misleading viewers on the nature and roles of H and the OCG. There have been plot holes aplenty over the years, and the introduction of whatever real-life news had made Mercurio's blood boil that summer – particularly racism and child sex abuse – did not help. But throughout the past decade it has been clear that Mercurio writes fantastically tense and engrossing set piece scenes but his plotting is badly flawed. You can't complain now. Even the second series, regarded by many as the best, with Keeley Hawes as Lindsay Denton, required Mercurio to tour television studios afterwards to explain what was supposed to have happened.
Here is to series 7, if there is one.
If there is one I hope Chloe, who seemed to do all the detective work, gets more prominence and some credit.
Chloe aka exposition girl, a composite of all AC-12's unnamed extras beavering away in the back of the shot. I think there was a fan theory that Chloe would turn out to be the daughter of first series protagonist Tony Gates (Lennie James) but as we now know, that did not happen.
Line of Duty fans with two minutes to spare should watch the funny but faithful episode summaries, Line of Duty in a One Bedroom Flat. Here is episode six from last week. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYFBtzxu3Ks
It looks like the Guardian did not understand what plot there was, if it thinks Thelma & Louise was a plot hole, and that is partly because writer Jed Mercurio spent most of the series misleading viewers on the nature and roles of H and the OCG. There have been plot holes aplenty over the years, and the introduction of whatever real-life news had made Mercurio's blood boil that summer – particularly racism and child sex abuse – did not help. But throughout the past decade it has been clear that Mercurio writes fantastically tense and engrossing set piece scenes but his plotting is badly flawed. You can't complain now. Even the second series, regarded by many as the best, with Keeley Hawes as Lindsay Denton, required Mercurio to tour television studios afterwards to explain what was supposed to have happened.
Here is to series 7, if there is one.
If there is one I hope Chloe, who seemed to do all the detective work, gets more prominence and some credit.
Chloe aka exposition girl, a composite of all AC-12's unnamed extras beavering away in the back of the shot. I think there was a fan theory that Chloe would turn out to be the daughter of first series protagonist Tony Gates (Lennie James) but as we now know, that did not happen.
The Newcastle Chronicle Facebook feed Was full of an endless diet of Line of Duty clickbait with this theory being one of them 😀 series like this and people like piers Morgan when on GMTV must be an absolute godsend for the drivers of click bait to press and media outlets. My favourite being Cornette wife was actually H due to a kitchen tile.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
This week’s Scottish elections will determine whether the battle for independence will return to the forefront of our politics again. Sturgeon’s great opportunity is Johnson’s nightmare
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
On the topic of good or bad TV endings, the best has to be the finale of M*A*S*H
Not seen it. But Blackadder has to be up there, no?
Yes I'd put that up there too.
That's probably my second favourite.
What about the ending of 'It Ain't Half Hot, Mum'? That brought a tear to my eye!
Yes, an excellent ending. Sgt Major Williams cut a rather pathetic figure stripped of all of his power over the men who couldn’t even be bothered to tell him what they thought of him athough they’d rehearsed it.
You Rang My Lord had a really good ending as well.
The ending of Blake’s Seven was a belter.
Like the First World War song, When this Bloody War is Over. I will tell the sergeant major to stick his passes up his arse. (and more in that vein, nsfw). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_m4bqD2z-sw
When we get these stupid masks off Oh how happy we shall be.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
The consolation prize is if everyone else is vaccinated you are far less likely to catch it.
I see the winner of the Tamil Nadu state elections is called Stalin - apparently named thus in honour of the Russian leader before the Cold War started after WW2. Like Germans called Adolf by enthusiastic 1940s parents, he must have had embarassing moments, though he is apparently grew up to be a mild-mannered regionalist social democrat. i think I'd have changed my name in his shoes, but perhaps voters there aren't that bothered.
Incidentally, I reently changed computers, and before getting my new one used to finding politicalbetting.com, it persistently offered me what looks like a spam site, telling me I've won something or other. Do the moderators know about it?
I think lots of us get that spam site occasionally. It's very frustrating. I don't know why. Don't get it or anything like it with any other site.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
There is further data here on the clinical details of the vaccine failures:
The CDC figures may not be so complete, but in the USA 498 people were hospitalized and there were 88 deaths in vaccinated patients. Because of the vaccine schedule there, many would be double jabbed.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
The consolation prize is if everyone else is vaccinated you are far less likely to catch it.
Yes, that seems true.
The data on vaccine failures is a bit complicated, as the covid prevalence was dropping as the vaccine rate was rising, so knowing what the denominator is is problematic. Nearly all the deaths were in Tier 2 patients, so 80+.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
There is further data here on the clinical details of the vaccine failures:
The CDC figures may not be so complete, but in the USA 498 people were hospitalized and there were 88 deaths in vaccinated patients. Because of the vaccine schedule there, many would be double jabbed.
Among what, 132 million people? That seems a pretty low percentage.
Suggests total vaccine failure is even rarer than blood clots.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
There is further data here on the clinical details of the vaccine failures:
The CDC figures may not be so complete, but in the USA 498 people were hospitalized and there were 88 deaths in vaccinated patients. Because of the vaccine schedule there, many would be double jabbed.
Among what, 132 million people? That seems a pretty low percentage.
Suggests total vaccine failure is even rarer than blood clots.
87 million vaccinated at the time of those figures, but I don't think that your conclusion is valid. 100% would have been exposed to the vaccine, but we have no idea what percentage of the vaccinated were exposed to the virus, almost certainly much lower than 100%.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
There is further data here on the clinical details of the vaccine failures:
The CDC figures may not be so complete, but in the USA 498 people were hospitalized and there were 88 deaths in vaccinated patients. Because of the vaccine schedule there, many would be double jabbed.
Among what, 132 million people? That seems a pretty low percentage.
Suggests total vaccine failure is even rarer than blood clots.
87 million vaccinated at the time of those figures, but I don't think that your conclusion is valid. 100% would have been exposed to the vaccine, but we have no idea what percentage of the vaccinated were exposed to the virus, almost certainly much lower than 100%.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
Not really accurate. There is a sampling issue that the hospitalisation figures are only those serious enough to get hospitalised.
The data seems to show that you're much less likely to get infected if you're vaccinated, but if you do get infected then you've got a consolation prize that you're less likely to get sick.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
There is further data here on the clinical details of the vaccine failures:
The CDC figures may not be so complete, but in the USA 498 people were hospitalized and there were 88 deaths in vaccinated patients. Because of the vaccine schedule there, many would be double jabbed.
Among what, 132 million people? That seems a pretty low percentage.
Suggests total vaccine failure is even rarer than blood clots.
87 million vaccinated at the time of those figures, but I don't think that your conclusion is valid. 100% would have been exposed to the vaccine, but we have no idea what percentage of the vaccinated were exposed to the virus, almost certainly much lower than 100%.
Exposure to the virus would likely be (At population level) broadly similar for vaxxed and unvaxxed I think ?
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
The consolation prize is if everyone else is vaccinated you are far less likely to catch it.
Yes, that seems true.
The data on vaccine failures is a bit complicated, as the covid prevalence was dropping as the vaccine rate was rising, so knowing what the denominator is is problematic. Nearly all the deaths were in Tier 2 patients, so 80+.
Also, from the figures you quoted, less than one per cent of those hospitalised had gone more than three weeks after their first vaccine shot. And the immune response with the AZN vaccine appears still to be building after three weeks.
I’m not convinced Nicola Sturgeon’s grasp of law is all it might be (and I’m not talking about her nobbling the AG either).
If I fail to injunct a burglar from breaking into my house, that doesn’t mean I agree with their actions or make them legal.
Or perhaps a better parallel, if I fail to take pre-emptive legal action against the teenager who rides an unlicensed scrambler bike up and down my road at 50mph, that doesn’t suddenly mean he’s OK to do it.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
The consolation prize is if everyone else is vaccinated you are far less likely to catch it.
Yes, that seems true.
The data on vaccine failures is a bit complicated, as the covid prevalence was dropping as the vaccine rate was rising, so knowing what the denominator is is problematic. Nearly all the deaths were in Tier 2 patients, so 80+.
I believe it's widely accepted that most vaccines tend to be less reliable in the elderly, so you'd expect cases of 'vaccine failure' to be concentrated in this demographic?
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
Not really accurate. There is a sampling issue that the hospitalisation figures are only those serious enough to get hospitalised.
The data seems to show that you're much less likely to get infected if you're vaccinated, but if you do get infected then you've got a consolation prize that you're less likely to get sick.
Yes; I was treating getting a non-symptomatic or very mild infection as included within the vaccine 'working'.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
Not really accurate. There is a sampling issue that the hospitalisation figures are only those serious enough to get hospitalised.
The data seems to show that you're much less likely to get infected if you're vaccinated, but if you do get infected then you've got a consolation prize that you're less likely to get sick.
Not based on these US CDC figures:
"Of the 7,157 cases, 498 people were hospitalized and there were 88 deaths."
So an admission rate of 7% and a case fatality rate of 1.3%, which sounds not very different to the unvaccinated.
The CDC figures are probably incomplete, and it isn't clear at what point in the timeline disease developed.
The CDC is sequencing the failures to look at if any particular variants are involved. My hunch would be that it is mostly host response rather than virus subtype that matters most.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
The consolation prize is if everyone else is vaccinated you are far less likely to catch it.
Yes, that seems true.
The data on vaccine failures is a bit complicated, as the covid prevalence was dropping as the vaccine rate was rising, so knowing what the denominator is is problematic. Nearly all the deaths were in Tier 2 patients, so 80+.
I believe it's widely accepted that most vaccines tend to be less reliable in the elderly, so you'd expect cases of 'vaccine failure' to be concentrated in this demographic?
Yes, immune response is generally less with age, for almost everything.
Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.
Harris: When he wasn’t “chillaxing”, Cameron tried to cover his lack of substance with a performative gravitas that sometimes verged on camp. Johnson, by contrast, seizes every opportunity to reduce politics to the absurd, and thereby makes the vacuum beneath him even more glaring. Without convictions or consistency you get a government based on serial lurching, from U-turn to U-turn and crisis to crisis, which sooner or later has massive consequences.
Moreover, because that dominance symbolises a very English mixture of nostalgia, deference and recklessness, it is part of the reason why the UK is now pulling apart; indeed, the fact that Johnson has been so hare-brained about arrangements in Northern Ireland is a vivid case study in the perils of entrusting matters of the utmost fragility to people whose basic unseriousness is not just toxic, but extremely dangerous.
Part of the English disease is our readiness to ascribe our national disasters to questions of personal character. But the vanities of posh men and their habit of dragging us into catastrophe have much deeper roots. They centre on an ancient system that trains a narrow caste of people to run our affairs, but also ensures they have almost none of the attributes actually required. If this country is to belatedly move into the 21st century, this is what we will finally have to confront: a great tower of failings that, to use a very topical word, are truly institutional.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
The consolation prize is if everyone else is vaccinated you are far less likely to catch it.
Yes, that seems true.
The data on vaccine failures is a bit complicated, as the covid prevalence was dropping as the vaccine rate was rising, so knowing what the denominator is is problematic. Nearly all the deaths were in Tier 2 patients, so 80+.
I believe it's widely accepted that most vaccines tend to be less reliable in the elderly, so you'd expect cases of 'vaccine failure' to be concentrated in this demographic?
Yes, immune response is generally less with age, for almost everything.
CNN: Despite the United Kingdom's successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout and an end to lockdown in sight, the British Prime Minister finds himself engulfed in scandals less than a week before crucial elections take place.
One place this could hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The Prime Minister already knows that there is little chance of Scottish voters electing anything than a parliamentary majority in favor of independence. As the leader of the Brexit campaign in 2016 and self-appointed defender of the Union, it's hard to think of a greater humiliation for Johnson to endure than see Scotland leaving the UK and going back into the EU.
Even members of his own government privately worry that the actions of Johnson, the Unionist who sought to unite the nation post-Brexit, could kick off a chain of events that leads to Scotland finally cutting loose from the United Kingdom.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
The consolation prize is if everyone else is vaccinated you are far less likely to catch it.
Yes, that seems true.
The data on vaccine failures is a bit complicated, as the covid prevalence was dropping as the vaccine rate was rising, so knowing what the denominator is is problematic. Nearly all the deaths were in Tier 2 patients, so 80+.
Also, from the figures you quoted, less than one per cent of those hospitalised had gone more than three weeks after their first vaccine shot. And the immune response with the AZN vaccine appears still to be building after three weeks.
2 weeks post completion of course, seems to mean post second dose, but difficult to specify a 1/100 000 risk without specifying a time period covered, and knowing the background risk.
I am very pro-vaccine, but understanding the risk of breakthrough infection is fairly key to the normalisation schedule.
Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.
You’d think so. And that it was reckless to do this in aftermath of pandemic etc etc.
We should probably wait until the weekend though..
Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
The consolation prize is if everyone else is vaccinated you are far less likely to catch it.
Yes, that seems true.
The data on vaccine failures is a bit complicated, as the covid prevalence was dropping as the vaccine rate was rising, so knowing what the denominator is is problematic. Nearly all the deaths were in Tier 2 patients, so 80+.
Also, from the figures you quoted, less than one per cent of those hospitalised had gone more than three weeks after their first vaccine shot. And the immune response with the AZN vaccine appears still to be building after three weeks.
2 weeks post completion of course, seems to mean post second dose, but difficult to specify a 1/100 000 risk without specifying a time period covered, and knowing the background risk.
I am very pro-vaccine, but understanding the risk of breakthrough infection is fairly key to the normalisation schedule.
Absolutely. No doubt better data will emerge, but those numbers are very encouraging.
CNN: Despite the United Kingdom's successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout and an end to lockdown in sight, the British Prime Minister finds himself engulfed in scandals less than a week before crucial elections take place.
One place this could hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The Prime Minister already knows that there is little chance of Scottish voters electing anything than a parliamentary majority in favor of independence. As the leader of the Brexit campaign in 2016 and self-appointed defender of the Union, it's hard to think of a greater humiliation for Johnson to endure than see Scotland leaving the UK and going back into the EU.
Even members of his own government privately worry that the actions of Johnson, the Unionist who sought to unite the nation post-Brexit, could kick off a chain of events that leads to Scotland finally cutting loose from the United Kingdom.
This CNN article describes Johnson as a Unionist, but I wouldn’t use that term of him.
There’s very little evidence he gives a toss about the Union, save the impact on his own reputation.
I see the winner of the Tamil Nadu state elections is called Stalin - apparently named thus in honour of the Russian leader before the Cold War started after WW2. Like Germans called Adolf by enthusiastic 1940s parents, he must have had embarassing moments, though he is apparently grew up to be a mild-mannered regionalist social democrat. i think I'd have changed my name in his shoes, but perhaps voters there aren't that bothered.
Incidentally, I reently changed computers, and before getting my new one used to finding politicalbetting.com, it persistently offered me what looks like a spam site, telling me I've won something or other. Do the moderators know about it?
In Beirut I worked with a gaffer (chief electrician) who was introduced to me as 'Hitler'. I laughed politely. (It isn't uncommon for the macho jobs on crew to have nicknames like 'Horse' and 'Chunky'). But I was the only one laughing.
It was his actual name and his brother was called Rommel! It was explained to me that in the Middle East it was common for their heroes to be our villains
CNN: Despite the United Kingdom's successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout and an end to lockdown in sight, the British Prime Minister finds himself engulfed in scandals less than a week before crucial elections take place.
One place this could hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The Prime Minister already knows that there is little chance of Scottish voters electing anything than a parliamentary majority in favor of independence. As the leader of the Brexit campaign in 2016 and self-appointed defender of the Union, it's hard to think of a greater humiliation for Johnson to endure than see Scotland leaving the UK and going back into the EU.
Even members of his own government privately worry that the actions of Johnson, the Unionist who sought to unite the nation post-Brexit, could kick off a chain of events that leads to Scotland finally cutting loose from the United Kingdom.
This CNN article describes Johnson as a Unionist, but I wouldn’t use that term of him.
There’s very little evidence he gives a toss about the Union, save the impact on his own reputation.
Yup. And to be fair to Theresa, she probably was..
According to reports, players and staff in the Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) camp are ill and isolating, following which their IPL 2021 match against Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB), due to be played on Monday, May 3, in Ahmedabad, is set to be rescheduled.
According to the statement from IPL, “Varun Chakaravarthy and Sandeep Warrier were found to be positive in the third round of testing in the last four days. All other team members have tested negative for COVID -19. Both the players have isolated themselves from the rest of the squad. The Medical Team is in continuous touch with the duo and are monitoring their health. Meanwhile, the Kolkata Knight Riders have now moved towards a daily testing routine to identify any other possible cases and treat them at the earliest.”
Harris: When he wasn’t “chillaxing”, Cameron tried to cover his lack of substance with a performative gravitas that sometimes verged on camp. Johnson, by contrast, seizes every opportunity to reduce politics to the absurd, and thereby makes the vacuum beneath him even more glaring. Without convictions or consistency you get a government based on serial lurching, from U-turn to U-turn and crisis to crisis, which sooner or later has massive consequences.
Moreover, because that dominance symbolises a very English mixture of nostalgia, deference and recklessness, it is part of the reason why the UK is now pulling apart; indeed, the fact that Johnson has been so hare-brained about arrangements in Northern Ireland is a vivid case study in the perils of entrusting matters of the utmost fragility to people whose basic unseriousness is not just toxic, but extremely dangerous.
Part of the English disease is our readiness to ascribe our national disasters to questions of personal character. But the vanities of posh men and their habit of dragging us into catastrophe have much deeper roots. They centre on an ancient system that trains a narrow caste of people to run our affairs, but also ensures they have almost none of the attributes actually required. If this country is to belatedly move into the 21st century, this is what we will finally have to confront: a great tower of failings that, to use a very topical word, are truly institutional.
That seems like a lot of words to say this is all about class. But are other places really hugely varied in their leadership?
Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.
......and the reply is that 40% of a 70% turnout doesn't demonstrate a desire for a Boris Johnson led government.
Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.
......and the reply is that 40% of a 70% turnout doesn't demonstrate a desire for a Boris Johnson led government.
Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.
Correct and we Tories will refuse one regardless.
If necessary we are prepared to follow the example of our conservative cousins the PP in Spain when they were in government in 2017, so even if Sturgeon does win an SNP or nationalist majority at Holyrood on Thursday and hold such a non binding referendum we will tell Unionists to boycott it and ignore the result just as the Spanish government ignored the independence referendum the Catalan nationalist government held in 2017. As Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 the UK government can do so.
The Catalan government even went so far as to declare UDI, which Sturgeon unlike Salmond has said she will not do but if either of them did we would ignore such a UDI as well.
We may not go as far as our Spanish cousins and order the arrest of Sturgeon and Salmond for threatening the Unity of the State but otherwise we will do everything in our power to enforce the preservation of our Union and respect the 'once in a generation' 2014 referendum on independence which resulted in a 55% No vote
CNN: Despite the United Kingdom's successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout and an end to lockdown in sight, the British Prime Minister finds himself engulfed in scandals less than a week before crucial elections take place.
One place this could hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The Prime Minister already knows that there is little chance of Scottish voters electing anything than a parliamentary majority in favor of independence. As the leader of the Brexit campaign in 2016 and self-appointed defender of the Union, it's hard to think of a greater humiliation for Johnson to endure than see Scotland leaving the UK and going back into the EU.
Even members of his own government privately worry that the actions of Johnson, the Unionist who sought to unite the nation post-Brexit, could kick off a chain of events that leads to Scotland finally cutting loose from the United Kingdom.
This CNN article describes Johnson as a Unionist, but I wouldn’t use that term of him.
There’s very little evidence he gives a toss about the Union, save the impact on his own reputation.
I see the winner of the Tamil Nadu state elections is called Stalin - apparently named thus in honour of the Russian leader before the Cold War started after WW2. Like Germans called Adolf by enthusiastic 1940s parents, he must have had embarassing moments, though he is apparently grew up to be a mild-mannered regionalist social democrat. i think I'd have changed my name in his shoes, but perhaps voters there aren't that bothered.
Incidentally, I reently changed computers, and before getting my new one used to finding politicalbetting.com, it persistently offered me what looks like a spam site, telling me I've won something or other. Do the moderators know about it?
In Beirut I worked with a gaffer (chief electrician) who was introduced to me as 'Hitler'. I laughed politely. (It isn't uncommon for the macho jobs on crew to have nicknames like 'Horse' and 'Chunky'). But I was the only one laughing.
It was his actual name and his brother was called Rommel! It was explained to me that in the Middle East it was common for their heroes to be our villains
In reply to Nick Palmer
The has been a persistent problem as the site seems to have been hacked. If you login via vanilla there is no issue.
Harris: When he wasn’t “chillaxing”, Cameron tried to cover his lack of substance with a performative gravitas that sometimes verged on camp. Johnson, by contrast, seizes every opportunity to reduce politics to the absurd, and thereby makes the vacuum beneath him even more glaring. Without convictions or consistency you get a government based on serial lurching, from U-turn to U-turn and crisis to crisis, which sooner or later has massive consequences.
Moreover, because that dominance symbolises a very English mixture of nostalgia, deference and recklessness, it is part of the reason why the UK is now pulling apart; indeed, the fact that Johnson has been so hare-brained about arrangements in Northern Ireland is a vivid case study in the perils of entrusting matters of the utmost fragility to people whose basic unseriousness is not just toxic, but extremely dangerous.
Part of the English disease is our readiness to ascribe our national disasters to questions of personal character. But the vanities of posh men and their habit of dragging us into catastrophe have much deeper roots. They centre on an ancient system that trains a narrow caste of people to run our affairs, but also ensures they have almost none of the attributes actually required. If this country is to belatedly move into the 21st century, this is what we will finally have to confront: a great tower of failings that, to use a very topical word, are truly institutional.
That seems like a lot of words to say this is all about class. But are other places really hugely varied in their leadership?
Not so far as I can tell. Most societies form oligarchies.
Surely the obvious UK government line is that 50% of a 50% turnout does not demonstrate an overwhelming desire in Scotland for another independence referendum.
Correct and we Tories will refuse one regardless.
If necessary we are prepared to follow the example of our conservative cousins the PP in Spain when they were in government in 2017, so even if Sturgeon does win an SNP or nationalist majority at Holyrood on Thursday and hold such a non binding referendum we will tell Unionists to boycott it and ignore the result just as the Spanish government ignored the independence referendum the Catalan nationalist government held in 2017. As Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 the UK government can do so.
The Catalan government even went so far as to declare UDI, which Sturgeon unlike Salmond has said she will not do but if either of them did we would ignore such a UDI as well.
We may not go as far as our Spanish cousins and order the arrest of Sturgeon and Salmond for threatening the Unity of the State but otherwise we will do everything in our power to enforce the preservation of our Union and respect the 'once in a generation' 2014 referendum on independence which resulted in a 55% No vote
Harris: When he wasn’t “chillaxing”, Cameron tried to cover his lack of substance with a performative gravitas that sometimes verged on camp. Johnson, by contrast, seizes every opportunity to reduce politics to the absurd, and thereby makes the vacuum beneath him even more glaring. Without convictions or consistency you get a government based on serial lurching, from U-turn to U-turn and crisis to crisis, which sooner or later has massive consequences.
Moreover, because that dominance symbolises a very English mixture of nostalgia, deference and recklessness, it is part of the reason why the UK is now pulling apart; indeed, the fact that Johnson has been so hare-brained about arrangements in Northern Ireland is a vivid case study in the perils of entrusting matters of the utmost fragility to people whose basic unseriousness is not just toxic, but extremely dangerous.
Part of the English disease is our readiness to ascribe our national disasters to questions of personal character. But the vanities of posh men and their habit of dragging us into catastrophe have much deeper roots. They centre on an ancient system that trains a narrow caste of people to run our affairs, but also ensures they have almost none of the attributes actually required. If this country is to belatedly move into the 21st century, this is what we will finally have to confront: a great tower of failings that, to use a very topical word, are truly institutional.
That seems like a lot of words to say this is all about class. But are other places really hugely varied in their leadership?
I think that the point is that the cult of the Public schoolboy gentleman amateur still dominates English life. Certainly other countries have ruling cliques, but the English one eschews intellectual study and preparation. It seems an unshakeable fixation in the land.
So we have two recent Etonian Prime Ministers playing their games with our lives. Cameron then Johnson, entitled amateurism first as tragedy, then as farce.
I see the winner of the Tamil Nadu state elections is called Stalin - apparently named thus in honour of the Russian leader before the Cold War started after WW2. Like Germans called Adolf by enthusiastic 1940s parents, he must have had embarassing moments, though he is apparently grew up to be a mild-mannered regionalist social democrat. i think I'd have changed my name in his shoes, but perhaps voters there aren't that bothered.
Incidentally, I reently changed computers, and before getting my new one used to finding politicalbetting.com, it persistently offered me what looks like a spam site, telling me I've won something or other. Do the moderators know about it?
In Beirut I worked with a gaffer (chief electrician) who was introduced to me as 'Hitler'. I laughed politely. (It isn't uncommon for the macho jobs on crew to have nicknames like 'Horse' and 'Chunky'). But I was the only one laughing.
It was his actual name and his brother was called Rommel! It was explained to me that in the Middle East it was common for their heroes to be our villains
I think I can guess why Hitler would be a hero in much of the Middle East.
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
CNN: Despite the United Kingdom's successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout and an end to lockdown in sight, the British Prime Minister finds himself engulfed in scandals less than a week before crucial elections take place.
One place this could hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The Prime Minister already knows that there is little chance of Scottish voters electing anything than a parliamentary majority in favor of independence. As the leader of the Brexit campaign in 2016 and self-appointed defender of the Union, it's hard to think of a greater humiliation for Johnson to endure than see Scotland leaving the UK and going back into the EU.
Even members of his own government privately worry that the actions of Johnson, the Unionist who sought to unite the nation post-Brexit, could kick off a chain of events that leads to Scotland finally cutting loose from the United Kingdom.
This CNN article describes Johnson as a Unionist, but I wouldn’t use that term of him.
There’s very little evidence he gives a toss about the Union, save the impact on his own reputation.
He has turned the UK into Greater England.
Under @HYUFD it will be England and the occupied territories.
I can’t read that story because I’m not a subscriber. But remember all legal restrictions will go on 21 June according to the government’s own roadmap. Whether some venues keep glass screens, who knows?
Harris: When he wasn’t “chillaxing”, Cameron tried to cover his lack of substance with a performative gravitas that sometimes verged on camp. Johnson, by contrast, seizes every opportunity to reduce politics to the absurd, and thereby makes the vacuum beneath him even more glaring. Without convictions or consistency you get a government based on serial lurching, from U-turn to U-turn and crisis to crisis, which sooner or later has massive consequences.
Moreover, because that dominance symbolises a very English mixture of nostalgia, deference and recklessness, it is part of the reason why the UK is now pulling apart; indeed, the fact that Johnson has been so hare-brained about arrangements in Northern Ireland is a vivid case study in the perils of entrusting matters of the utmost fragility to people whose basic unseriousness is not just toxic, but extremely dangerous.
Part of the English disease is our readiness to ascribe our national disasters to questions of personal character. But the vanities of posh men and their habit of dragging us into catastrophe have much deeper roots. They centre on an ancient system that trains a narrow caste of people to run our affairs, but also ensures they have almost none of the attributes actually required. If this country is to belatedly move into the 21st century, this is what we will finally have to confront: a great tower of failings that, to use a very topical word, are truly institutional.
That seems like a lot of words to say this is all about class. But are other places really hugely varied in their leadership?
I think that the point is that the cult of the Public schoolboy gentleman amateur still dominates English life. Certainly other countries have ruling cliques, but the English one eschews intellectual study and preparation. It seems an unshakeable fixation in the land.
So we have two recent Etonian Prime Ministers playing their games with our lives. Cameron then Johnson, entitled amateurism first as tragedy, then as farce.
Sounds like bollocks to me. Or, gasp, English exceptionalism.
Unless I am to believe that when people in other countries complain about their ruling cliques they are doing so on the basis they are too well prepared, intelligent and competent, how dare they. Which is the unavoidable implication of suggesting our clique, uniquely, eschews study and preparation.
It also seems like a way of blaming people for who they are choosing whilst still making that choice the fault of the person chosen.
Apropos of nothing, I’m just having a moan, after my first jab yesterday, AZ, I’ve felt like crap all day today. Light-headed, fuzzy brained, niggling headache. Been absolutely useless all day. My parents, in their 60s, both had AZ and they were fine apart from a bit of a sore arm so I thought I’d fly through it. But not so. Hopefully I’ll feel better tomorrow.
That was me yesterday too. Touch wood, woken up feeling more like myself today.
I would regard some malaise as a good thing, in that an immune response has been triggered.
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
So either the vaccine works, or it doesn’t, and mostly it does. But if it doesn’t, there is no consolation prize.
The consolation prize is if everyone else is vaccinated you are far less likely to catch it.
Yes, that seems true.
The data on vaccine failures is a bit complicated, as the covid prevalence was dropping as the vaccine rate was rising, so knowing what the denominator is is problematic. Nearly all the deaths were in Tier 2 patients, so 80+.
Also, from the figures you quoted, less than one per cent of those hospitalised had gone more than three weeks after their first vaccine shot. And the immune response with the AZN vaccine appears still to be building after three weeks.
2 weeks post completion of course, seems to mean post second dose, but difficult to specify a 1/100 000 risk without specifying a time period covered, and knowing the background risk.
I am very pro-vaccine, but understanding the risk of breakthrough infection is fairly key to the normalisation schedule.
Tim Spector reckons your chance of catching COVID in the UK after one vaccine shot is 1/100,000 per 24 hour period. And 1/150,000 after two shots. Of course this is partly a result of the low prevalence in the UK. Would be good to see this compasred with other everyday risks, like crossing the road.
On topic I note the voteshares in the 2017 county council elections were 38% Tory, 27% Labour and 18% LD based on the BBC results screenshot in OGH's thread header.
So given even the latest Survation voteshares at the weekend of Tories 39%, Labour 38% and LD 9% the Tories would actually be up 1% still on their 2017 county council voteshare (helped by squeezing UKIP who got 4.6% in England in the 2017 locals), Labour would be up by 11%, a big jump and the LDs would actually be down 9% on what they got last time.
On that basis then you would expect Labour to gain a large number of Tory county council seats on Thursday based on a 5% swing from the Tories to Labour, though the Tories would still be narrowly ahead overall. There would also be a 10% swing from LD to Labour so you would expect Labour to gain a number of LD county council seats as well and a 5% swing from LD to Tory, so you would expect the Tories to gain some LD county council seats (though LD opposition to new development in the Home Counties etc might reduce that swing in the South of England at least).
CNN: Despite the United Kingdom's successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout and an end to lockdown in sight, the British Prime Minister finds himself engulfed in scandals less than a week before crucial elections take place.
One place this could hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The Prime Minister already knows that there is little chance of Scottish voters electing anything than a parliamentary majority in favor of independence. As the leader of the Brexit campaign in 2016 and self-appointed defender of the Union, it's hard to think of a greater humiliation for Johnson to endure than see Scotland leaving the UK and going back into the EU.
Even members of his own government privately worry that the actions of Johnson, the Unionist who sought to unite the nation post-Brexit, could kick off a chain of events that leads to Scotland finally cutting loose from the United Kingdom.
This CNN article describes Johnson as a Unionist, but I wouldn’t use that term of him.
There’s very little evidence he gives a toss about the Union, save the impact on his own reputation.
He has turned the UK into Greater England.
Under @HYUFD it will be England and the occupied territories.
No, that would require the abolition of Holyrood and the Senedd and Stormont and the imposition of direct rule from Westminster too and also the removal of all Scottish and Welsh and Northern Irish MPs from the House of Commons
CNN: Despite the United Kingdom's successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout and an end to lockdown in sight, the British Prime Minister finds himself engulfed in scandals less than a week before crucial elections take place.
One place this could hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The Prime Minister already knows that there is little chance of Scottish voters electing anything than a parliamentary majority in favor of independence. As the leader of the Brexit campaign in 2016 and self-appointed defender of the Union, it's hard to think of a greater humiliation for Johnson to endure than see Scotland leaving the UK and going back into the EU.
Even members of his own government privately worry that the actions of Johnson, the Unionist who sought to unite the nation post-Brexit, could kick off a chain of events that leads to Scotland finally cutting loose from the United Kingdom.
This CNN article describes Johnson as a Unionist, but I wouldn’t use that term of him.
There’s very little evidence he gives a toss about the Union, save the impact on his own reputation.
He has turned the UK into Greater England.
Which is how the UK has always been perceived overseas.
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
Or because he's not as stupid as HYUFD as to think its possible to deny a democratic mandate, making Scots slaves unable to determine their own future at the ballot box.
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.
Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.
The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.
Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
Yes, give in to the Nationalists now before a generation has elapsed since 2014 and even if No narrowly win an indyref2 the hardliners in the Nationalists would force Sturgeon to push for indyref3 soon after
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
If Boris decides to address the issue head-on and grant section 30 (of course that depends on the HOC agreeing) when requested he will stun everyone and actually regain the initiative by making the case for the union in a positive argument
I would be content for him to follow that course if Thursday's election confirms a majority position for indyref2
Harris: When he wasn’t “chillaxing”, Cameron tried to cover his lack of substance with a performative gravitas that sometimes verged on camp. Johnson, by contrast, seizes every opportunity to reduce politics to the absurd, and thereby makes the vacuum beneath him even more glaring. Without convictions or consistency you get a government based on serial lurching, from U-turn to U-turn and crisis to crisis, which sooner or later has massive consequences.
Moreover, because that dominance symbolises a very English mixture of nostalgia, deference and recklessness, it is part of the reason why the UK is now pulling apart; indeed, the fact that Johnson has been so hare-brained about arrangements in Northern Ireland is a vivid case study in the perils of entrusting matters of the utmost fragility to people whose basic unseriousness is not just toxic, but extremely dangerous.
Part of the English disease is our readiness to ascribe our national disasters to questions of personal character. But the vanities of posh men and their habit of dragging us into catastrophe have much deeper roots. They centre on an ancient system that trains a narrow caste of people to run our affairs, but also ensures they have almost none of the attributes actually required. If this country is to belatedly move into the 21st century, this is what we will finally have to confront: a great tower of failings that, to use a very topical word, are truly institutional.
That seems like a lot of words to say this is all about class. But are other places really hugely varied in their leadership?
I think that the point is that the cult of the Public schoolboy gentleman amateur still dominates English life. Certainly other countries have ruling cliques, but the English one eschews intellectual study and preparation. It seems an unshakeable fixation in the land.
So we have two recent Etonian Prime Ministers playing their games with our lives. Cameron then Johnson, entitled amateurism first as tragedy, then as farce.
Sounds like bollocks to me. Or, gasp, English exceptionalism.
Unless I am to believe that when people in other countries complain about their ruling cliques they are doing so on the basis they are too well prepared, intelligent and competent, how dare they. Which is the unavoidable implication of suggesting our clique, uniquely, eschews study and preparation.
It also seems like a way of blaming people for who they are choosing whilst still making that choice the fault of the person chosen.
Best description of this for me was in Chariots of Fire where Abrahams' college masters were accusing his professionalism of being a little too plebeian.
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
Yes, give in to the Nationalists now before a generation has elapsed since 2014 and even if No narrowly win an indyref2 the hardliners in the Nationalists would force Sturgeon to push for indyref3 soon after
In which case if the Scots don't want an Indyref3 they can say "enough is enough" and vote for another party. Is democracy really such an alien concept to you?
People don't like to be asked the same question again and again without good reason.
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.
Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.
The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.
Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
Boris has a higher approval rating in Scotland now than Alex Salmond who led the Yes campaign in 2014, Starmer has a higher approval rating in Scotland now than Cameron did in 2014
CNN: Despite the United Kingdom's successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout and an end to lockdown in sight, the British Prime Minister finds himself engulfed in scandals less than a week before crucial elections take place.
One place this could hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The Prime Minister already knows that there is little chance of Scottish voters electing anything than a parliamentary majority in favor of independence. As the leader of the Brexit campaign in 2016 and self-appointed defender of the Union, it's hard to think of a greater humiliation for Johnson to endure than see Scotland leaving the UK and going back into the EU.
Even members of his own government privately worry that the actions of Johnson, the Unionist who sought to unite the nation post-Brexit, could kick off a chain of events that leads to Scotland finally cutting loose from the United Kingdom.
This CNN article describes Johnson as a Unionist, but I wouldn’t use that term of him.
There’s very little evidence he gives a toss about the Union, save the impact on his own reputation.
He has turned the UK into Greater England.
Under @HYUFD it will be England and the occupied territories.
That made me laugh. I think HYUFD is heading for PB's national treasure status.....and it's all done with a straight face (I think!)
I can’t read that story because I’m not a subscriber. But remember all legal restrictions will go on 21 June according to the government’s own roadmap. Whether some venues keep glass screens, who knows?
Disturbing story briefed in the times. Suggests theatre and cinema goers will be forced to wear masks throughout screenings and performances. Distancing to be gone, but punters to wear masks when moving around. Sports venues may be capped to avoid pinch points. If things go as I expect with the vaccination rollout, cases will continue to fall, and hospitalisation and death will be minimal, yet I’ll still need to wear a mask to watch a film? Bye bye cinemas.
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.
Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.
The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.
Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
The SNP will use Brexit and the fact the Scots didn't want it as front and centre of any campaign. Especially as they can pin Boris in that and sidetrack all interviews he does.
I can’t read that story because I’m not a subscriber. But remember all legal restrictions will go on 21 June according to the government’s own roadmap. Whether some venues keep glass screens, who knows?
If I was running a big chain of shops I would not be rushing to remove all that kit.
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
I was chatting to someone who worked on the last Indyref and he's convinced that Gove is pulling the strings on this and will game the referendum a bit.
Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.
The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.
Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
Or they just might see him as the man who has saved the lives of thousands of Scots by rolling out a truly amazing vaccine program and the jobs of tens of thousands of Scots with furlough money, grants and QE beyond the aspirations of an independent Scotland. The answers to what has the Union done for me are stronger right now than they have been in decades and I think Boris (and Gove) are very well aware of that and want to take advantage.
I don't know Scott, its almost as if he is gearing up to fight Indyref2 already. This is going to be an anxious week.
I am more and more convinced he is going to allow Indyref2 solely because he thinks he can win it.
That has crossed my mind more than once. The problem is that Nicola will play for a repeat of the Neverendum of 2012-2014 and the damage done to an already damaged Scottish economy will be immense.
Yes, give in to the Nationalists now before a generation has elapsed since 2014 and even if No narrowly win an indyref2 the hardliners in the Nationalists would force Sturgeon to push for indyref3 soon after
You have no answer to a very serious and complex problem which, handled diplomatically, could see the case for the union win, especially as covid recovery and brexit has made the argument for independence much more difficult to make
Just repeating a mantra, robot style will not resolve the issue
Comments
Here is to series 7, if there is one.
I believe the ending was poor partly because they had to drop the leading actor for reasons that are well known.
“When did we stop caring about honesty and integrity?”
Most voters watched it; now they can have a little think about it....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_m4bqD2z-sw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYFBtzxu3Ks
A taster of our film on the battle for Scotland @NicolaSturgeon @Douglas4Moray @AnasSarwar https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1389102139658616835/video/1
Looking over the more up to date data on the vaccine failures, this caught my eye:
"There have been community studies in the U.K. and Israel demonstrating vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization. What is notable about vaccinated patients who are admitted to the hospital is that their outcomes are the same as non-vaccinated counterparts.
In order to be in the hospital, patients have to meet a “threshold of sickness” that is the same “if they are vaccinated or non-vaccinated,” said Annemarie Doherty, critical care consultant and a co-author of the study. “They look as sick as non-vaccinated patients. We’re only comparing patients that are sick enough to come into hospital, and then there is no difference in how well they do,” she said."
From: https://www.bioworld.com/articles/506587-real-world-uk-data-show-small-number-of-covid-19-vaccine-failures
"526 of the hospitalized patients had developed their symptoms more than three weeks after being vaccinated, meaning they would be expected to have had immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 113 those patients died."
This would be just over 1% of hospital admissions, over the period. Obviously the %vaccinated over the period changed, so hard to know the denominator.
There were only 140 admissions post second vaccine, though because of the timelines, very few would have had the second dose within the study period.
Should I be worried that my immune system is defunct?
(I had the rona over Christmas).
Oh how happy we shall be.
Government to launch 40,000 person daily contact testing study
New study to offer daily rapid testing to contacts of positive COVID-19 cases.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-launch-40000-person-daily-contact-testing-study
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/isaric4c-hospitalised-vaccinated-patients-during-the-second-wave-11-march-2021
The CDC figures may not be so complete, but in the USA 498 people were hospitalized and there were 88 deaths in vaccinated patients. Because of the vaccine schedule there, many would be double jabbed.
I know there’s been one, in Scotland, but AFAICS it’s never been published.
Do any of our Scottish posters know differently? I would very much like to read it.
The data on vaccine failures is a bit complicated, as the covid prevalence was dropping as the vaccine rate was rising, so knowing what the denominator is is problematic. Nearly all the deaths were in Tier 2 patients, so 80+.
Suggests total vaccine failure is even rarer than blood clots.
The data seems to show that you're much less likely to get infected if you're vaccinated, but if you do get infected then you've got a consolation prize that you're less likely to get sick.
Latest CDC figures have 835 reported hospitalised out of 95 million who’ve had two shots. Less than 1 in 100,000.
(And the US prevalence of infection has been rather higher than here.)
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence-referendum-would-be-legal-unless-court-blocks-it-12292827
‘Commonplace’ now means in the millions.
If I fail to injunct a burglar from breaking into my house, that doesn’t mean I agree with their actions or make them legal.
Or perhaps a better parallel, if I fail to take pre-emptive legal action against the teenager who rides an unlicensed scrambler bike up and down my road at 50mph, that doesn’t suddenly mean he’s OK to do it.
"Of the 7,157 cases, 498 people were hospitalized and there were 88 deaths."
So an admission rate of 7% and a case fatality rate of 1.3%, which sounds not very different to the unvaccinated.
The CDC figures are probably incomplete, and it isn't clear at what point in the timeline disease developed.
The CDC is sequencing the failures to look at if any particular variants are involved. My hunch would be that it is mostly host response rather than virus subtype that matters most.
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-police-arrest-coronavirus-vaccination-hub-bomb-brescia/amp/
Moreover, because that dominance symbolises a very English mixture of nostalgia, deference and recklessness, it is part of the reason why the UK is now pulling apart; indeed, the fact that Johnson has been so hare-brained about arrangements in Northern Ireland is a vivid case study in the perils of entrusting matters of the utmost fragility to people whose basic unseriousness is not just toxic, but extremely dangerous.
Part of the English disease is our readiness to ascribe our national disasters to questions of personal character. But the vanities of posh men and their habit of dragging us into catastrophe have much deeper roots. They centre on an ancient system that trains a narrow caste of people to run our affairs, but also ensures they have almost none of the attributes actually required. If this country is to belatedly move into the 21st century, this is what we will finally have to confront: a great tower of failings that, to use a very topical word, are truly institutional.
Anyway, weather or no weather, I am off to the Welsh coast for the first time since August.
Have a good day.
One place this could hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The Prime Minister already knows that there is little chance of Scottish voters electing anything than a parliamentary majority in favor of independence. As the leader of the Brexit campaign in 2016 and self-appointed defender of the Union, it's hard to think of a greater humiliation for Johnson to endure than see Scotland leaving the UK and going back into the EU.
Even members of his own government privately worry that the actions of Johnson, the Unionist who sought to unite the nation post-Brexit, could kick off a chain of events that leads to Scotland finally cutting loose from the United Kingdom.
2 weeks post completion of course, seems to mean post second dose, but difficult to specify a 1/100 000 risk without specifying a time period covered, and knowing the background risk.
I am very pro-vaccine, but understanding the risk of breakthrough infection is fairly key to the normalisation schedule.
We should probably wait until the weekend though..
No doubt better data will emerge, but those numbers are very encouraging.
There’s very little evidence he gives a toss about the Union, save the impact on his own reputation.
It was his actual name and his brother was called Rommel! It was explained to me that in the Middle East it was common for their heroes to be our villains
"We" do not care about such things??? You Conservatives speak only for yourselves. I for one do care about honesty and integrity.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-met-keir-starmers-donkeys-and-they-told-me-something-about-him/
According to reports, players and staff in the Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) camp are ill and isolating, following which their IPL 2021 match against Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB), due to be played on Monday, May 3, in Ahmedabad, is set to be rescheduled.
According to the statement from IPL, “Varun Chakaravarthy and Sandeep Warrier were found to be positive in the third round of testing in the last four days. All other team members have tested negative for COVID -19. Both the players have isolated themselves from the rest of the squad. The Medical Team is in continuous touch with the duo and are monitoring their health. Meanwhile, the Kolkata Knight Riders have now moved towards a daily testing routine to identify any other possible cases and treat them at the earliest.”
https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/report-kkr-rcb-match-to-be-rescheduled-after-several-players-fall-ill
Pat Cummins also tests positive
https://twitter.com/plalor/status/1389105639855517697
Now hearing at least 3 players in 2 franchises as well as a television crew have tested positive
https://twitter.com/plalor/status/1389114387999326215
But we're in a minority these days. Maybe we always have been.
Anyway off to have a proper haircut today. Hooray!
If necessary we are prepared to follow the example of our conservative cousins the PP in Spain when they were in government in 2017, so even if Sturgeon does win an SNP or nationalist majority at Holyrood on Thursday and hold such a non binding referendum we will tell Unionists to boycott it and ignore the result just as the Spanish government ignored the independence referendum the Catalan nationalist government held in 2017. As Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 the UK government can do so.
The Catalan government even went so far as to declare UDI, which Sturgeon unlike Salmond has said she will not do but if either of them did we would ignore such a UDI as well.
We may not go as far as our Spanish cousins and order the arrest of Sturgeon and Salmond for threatening the Unity of the State but otherwise we will do everything in our power to enforce the preservation of our Union and respect the 'once in a generation' 2014 referendum on independence which resulted in a 55% No vote
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19274682.scottish-elections-boris-johnsons-union-saving-plan-complete-c-p-late-make-impact/?ref=twtrec
Face masks likely to remain after 21st June.
Cookie likely to continue witholding his vote from the Conservative party after 21st June.
The has been a persistent problem as the site seems to have been hacked. If you login via vanilla there is no issue.
So we have two recent Etonian Prime Ministers playing their games with our lives. Cameron then Johnson, entitled amateurism first as tragedy, then as farce.
Mr. Cookie, what percentage of the population is expected to be vaccinated at that point?
The masks have to come off at some point.
Unless I am to believe that when people in other countries complain about their ruling cliques they are doing so on the basis they are too well prepared, intelligent and competent, how dare they. Which is the unavoidable implication of suggesting our clique, uniquely, eschews study and preparation.
It also seems like a way of blaming people for who they are choosing whilst still making that choice the fault of the person chosen.
So given even the latest Survation voteshares at the weekend of Tories 39%, Labour 38% and LD 9% the Tories would actually be up 1% still on their 2017 county council voteshare (helped by squeezing UKIP who got 4.6% in England in the 2017 locals), Labour would be up by 11%, a big jump and the LDs would actually be down 9% on what they got last time.
On that basis then you would expect Labour to gain a large number of Tory county council seats on Thursday based on a 5% swing from the Tories to Labour, though the Tories would still be narrowly ahead overall. There would also be a 10% swing from LD to Labour so you would expect Labour to gain a number of LD county council seats as well and a 5% swing from LD to Tory, so you would expect the Tories to gain some LD county council seats (though LD opposition to new development in the Home Counties etc might reduce that swing in the South of England at least).
Unless the SNP absolutely sweep the Constituencies they will not get a majority. Their list vote is crashing and I suspect inefficiently distributed.
But the SNP absolutely could sweep the constituencies depending on how tactical voting plays out.
Such as allowing Scots in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland a vote in Indyref2, that sort of stuff.
The huge downside in all of this is the Prime Minister, I've mentioned on here that Yes tried to portray the 2014 as a battle of good v. evil but whilst the majority of Scots didn't agree with the politics of David Cameron they didn't see him as some malignant force, just a nice family man they disagreed with.
Now it is possible the majority of Scots do see Boris Johnson as some malignant force.
I would be content for him to follow that course if Thursday's election confirms a majority position for indyref2
People don't like to be asked the same question again and again without good reason.
If things go as I expect with the vaccination rollout, cases will continue to fall, and hospitalisation and death will be minimal, yet I’ll still need to wear a mask to watch a film? Bye bye cinemas.
Just repeating a mantra, robot style will not resolve the issue