Setting the scene for next Thursday’s local elections – politicalbetting.com

felix said:

NickyBreakspear said:

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-mayoral-parliamentary-scottish-welsh-elections-results-polls

Peter Kellner has summarised various targets for each party to claim success.

Conservatives

Open up a five-point lead over Labour in projected Britain-wide vote share
Re-elect Tory mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley and win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Gain Hartlepool parliamentary seat from Labour
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win at least 20 (out of 60) seats in Welsh Parliament
Gain votes in London mayoral election (having achieved 35 per cent of first-preference votes last time)

Labour

Overtake Tories in projected Britain-wide vote share
Win London mayoralty outright on first preference votes (44 per cent last time)
Defeat Tory incumbent mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley; win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Hold Hartlepool parliamentary seat
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win absolute majority in Welsh Parliament (two short last time)

Liberal Democrats

Win at least 16 per cent of projected Britain-wide vote share
Gain more council seats than they lose
Win at least 10 per cent of constituency vote in elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly (8 per cent in both elections last time)

SNP

Win overall majority in Scottish Parliament (they need 65 of the 129 seats; they won 63 last time)
Keep Alex Salmond’s new Alba party out of the parliament completely

Greens

Win at least 8 per cent of first preference votes in the London mayoral election
Gain 100 seats in English council elections
Add to the six seats they won last time in Scotland

Plaid Cymru

Win at least 15 seats in Welsh Assembly (12 last time)
Win at least 25 per cent of the vote in either the constituency or party list vote (21 per cent in both last time)

Golly - with targets like some of those I forecast that most will be losers!

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder how much awareness there is in the non-political society that there is an election ongoing right now, without campaigning etc?

Not much sign of it in my area. Received a few leaflets from the Tories, a couple from Labour, no others. On my road there's not many placards advertising parties - the house nearby that permanently flies a Unite the Union flag has a Vote Labour placard on its fence. Not seen any others.

At the last general election there were many more placards. Kinabalu might be interested to know that last time the houses that fly Union Jack flags mostly but not all had Tory placards at the General Election. None of them have placards so far, only the Unite flag flying garden one does.

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

williamglenn said:

I doubt you could get a modern car that fits.

https://twitter.com/moylato/status/1387139670962843658

FrancisUrquhart said:

We are can't take a stance or join a lobbying campaign, but we are taking a stance....

The BBC as a corporation cannot take part in the campaign. We have special duties that don't apply to other organisations under our Royal Charter and editorial guidelines that prevent us from joining lobbying campaigns. So while we have firm policies to deal with online abuse, the corporation cannot join a lobbying campaign no matter how worthy the cause.

This does not mean that the BBC is neutral on issues such as racism or hate crime. They are abhorrent.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/56942511

I genuinely don't see what all these clubs not tweeting for a couple of days will achieve.

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Jonathan said:

Gardenwalker said:

Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.

The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.

Fast forward twenty odd years.

I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.

I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.

What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?

budget?

I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.

So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.

Does that help?

I have a lot of time for the Asian brands as a rule of thumb, they tend to have much better value for money than the British or European brands and are a very good quality. Frequently just as often made here too.

I've not looked into new cars in a long time. My car is a Kia. It was far cheaper when I bought it than comparable cars then due to being a relatively unknown brand, but came with a seven year warranty as opposed to a three year one. I would strongly recommend them as a brand and anyone I know with a Kia has said the same, but I don't know if they're still as good value for money as they used to be.

I think they still all come now with a seven year warranty as standard which speaks to their respect in their own quality and reliability - not sure what other brands are like.

EDIT: Kia C'eed is my model, sort of an SUV but not as big as most SUVs. Would probably suit unless you want something smaller.

I've recently bought a Hyundai i10 as a runaround and for my daughters to learn to drive in. It's perfect. It replaces a Audi A1 which I would have gone for again but for the insurance cost for learner drivers.

All cars are plasticky these days aren't they?

I'd recommend either of above two cars but maybe look at minis as well?

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

kjh said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Jonathan said:

Gardenwalker said:

Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.

The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.

Fast forward twenty odd years.

I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.

I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.

What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?

budget?

I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.

So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.

Does that help?

I have a lot of time for the Asian brands as a rule of thumb, they tend to have much better value for money than the British or European brands and are a very good quality. Frequently just as often made here too.

I've not looked into new cars in a long time. My car is a Kia. It was far cheaper when I bought it than comparable cars then due to being a relatively unknown brand, but came with a seven year warranty as opposed to a three year one. I would strongly recommend them as a brand and anyone I know with a Kia has said the same, but I don't know if they're still as good value for money as they used to be.

I think they still all come now with a seven year warranty as standard which speaks to their respect in their own quality and reliability - not sure what other brands are like.

EDIT: Kia C'eed is my model, sort of an SUV but not as big as most SUVs. Would probably suit unless you want something smaller.

I've recently bought a Hyundai i10 as a runaround and for my daughters to learn to drive in. It's perfect. It replaces a Audi A1 which I would have gone for again but for the insurance cost for learner drivers.

All cars are plasticky these days aren't they?

I'd recommend either of above two cars but maybe look at minis as well?

I know nothing, but when has that stopped any of us? We have a Kia Picanto and I believe it is basically the same car as the Hyundai i10 under the bodywork, but you get 7 years rather than 5 year warranty. So if the Hyundai is recommended the Picanto must be in with a shout I guess.

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

turbotubbs said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder how much awareness there is in the non-political society that there is an election ongoing right now, without campaigning etc?

Not much sign of it in my area. Received a few leaflets from the Tories, a couple from Labour, no others. On my road there's not many placards advertising parties - the house nearby that permanently flies a Unite the Union flag has a Vote Labour placard on its fence. Not seen any others.

At the last general election there were many more placards. Kinabalu might be interested to know that last time the houses that fly Union Jack flags mostly but not all had Tory placards at the General Election. None of them have placards so far, only the Unite flag flying garden one does.

I guess it depends if they still watch 'live' TV - plenty of party politicals in the just before 'The One Show' slot.

Razedabode said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Im not sure how the abundance of wind, water and dwindling oil levels will cover the current day to day spending of the snp. But there we go

Philip_Thompson said:

Razedabode said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Im not sure how the abundance of wind, water and dwindling oil levels will cover the current day to day spending of the snp. But there we go

Then an independent Scotland will need to grow its economy to afford all that day to day spending, or cut its cloth to what it can afford. Teach a man to fish ... what's not to like about that??

FrancisUrquhart said:

We are can't take a stance or join a lobbying campaign, but we are taking a stance....

The BBC as a corporation cannot take part in the campaign. We have special duties that don't apply to other organisations under our Royal Charter and editorial guidelines that prevent us from joining lobbying campaigns. So while we have firm policies to deal with online abuse, the corporation cannot join a lobbying campaign no matter how worthy the cause.

This does not mean that the BBC is neutral on issues such as racism or hate crime. They are abhorrent.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/56942511

I genuinely don't see what all these clubs not tweeting for a couple of days will achieve.

malcolmg said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Razedabode said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Im not sure how the abundance of wind, water and dwindling oil levels will cover the current day to day spending of the snp. But there we go

Then an independent Scotland will need to grow its economy to afford all that day to day spending, or cut its cloth to what it can afford. Teach a man to fish ... what's not to like about that??

Why does England not do that then , enlighten me.

felix said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

Don’t forget as well, rUK will be paying Scottish pensions in the event of indy

More garbage, Scotland will pay its own pensions like normal countries, England will pay the debts it owes for the money people paid into their pension scam scheme or perhaps welch on their commitments.

There are no such 'debts' owed by England other than to english people. The OAP doesn't work that way. Current Scots would pay Scottish pensions , etc

Razedabode said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Im not sure how the abundance of wind, water and dwindling oil levels will cover the current day to day spending of the snp. But there we go

malcolmg said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Whatever - we are never going to agree

Exactly , you spouting about things you have absolutely NO clue about is extremely pointless.

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Whatever - we are never going to agree

Exactly , you spouting about things you have absolutely NO clue about is extremely pointless.

Except for the fact you don't provide any evidence of anything that actually generates money.

felix said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Hartlepool: Labour Party now out to 2.7 with BF. Is this too big?

I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.

Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?

Might favour Labour if their GOTV op is superior.

But you know my feelings here. This should be a Con win and I personally don't think Lab at 2.7 is value.

What proportion are PVs already in I wonder. Still expect a tight Labour hold.

IanB2 said:

felix said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Hartlepool: Labour Party now out to 2.7 with BF. Is this too big?

I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.

Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?

Might favour Labour if their GOTV op is superior.

But you know my feelings here. This should be a Con win and I personally don't think Lab at 2.7 is value.

What proportion are PVs already in I wonder. Still expect a tight Labour hold.

Normally I’d expect over half to be returned by now - my guess would be 60%, with the remainder divided between the last weekend, and those that get taken to the polling station (perhaps less of those this year). An anecdotal report from our council is that the return of postal votes is so far lower than expected, especially with more applications due to the pandemic.

felix said:

turbotubbs said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Jonathan said:

Gardenwalker said:

Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.

The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.

Fast forward twenty odd years.

I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.

I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.

What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?

budget?

I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.

So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.

Does that help?

I have a lot of time for the Asian brands as a rule of thumb, they tend to have much better value for money than the British or European brands and are a very good quality. Frequently just as often made here too.

I've not looked into new cars in a long time. My car is a Kia. It was far cheaper when I bought it than comparable cars then due to being a relatively unknown brand, but came with a seven year warranty as opposed to a three year one. I would strongly recommend them as a brand and anyone I know with a Kia has said the same, but I don't know if they're still as good value for money as they used to be.

I think they still all come now with a seven year warranty as standard which speaks to their respect in their own quality and reliability - not sure what other brands are like.

EDIT: Kia C'eed is my model, sort of an SUV but not as big as most SUVs. Would probably suit unless you want something smaller.

I've been Toyota for the last three cars. AA men frequently comment (when attending other vehicles, such as our classic mini), that they rarely attend Japanese cars as they are so reliable. I also know of a story from a mechanical engineer about Ford. Apparently they routinely castigate parts suppliers if the parts last too long. So if the spec says last 100,000 miles, Ford would prefer it to fail at 100,001, not 200,000.
Currently have a hybrid. Bit of a con really, as the self-charging really just makes it more economical (so from about 40 mpg to more like 55 in reality). That said its automatic and electric drive, and drives really nicely.
I think I'd prefer plug-in hybrid with small petrol tank as reserve if needed, at least until rapid charging is much more widely established.

I love my Toyota CH-R

williamglenn said:

There's a fun video of a Belgian parking in his garage which is only 6cm wider than the car. I doubt you could get a modern car that fits.

https://twitter.com/moylato/status/1387139670962843658

Alistair said:

felix said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

Don’t forget as well, rUK will be paying Scottish pensions in the event of indy

More garbage, Scotland will pay its own pensions like normal countries, England will pay the debts it owes for the money people paid into their pension scam scheme or perhaps welch on their commitments.

There are no such 'debts' owed by England other than to english people. The OAP doesn't work that way. Current Scots would pay Scottish pensions , etc

The UK government guarantees to pay a state pension to anyone, UK citizen or not, that has made sufficient qualifying contributions.

Dura_Ace said:

TOPPING said:

Gardenwalker said:

Jonathan said:

Gardenwalker said:

Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.

The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.

Fast forward twenty odd years.

I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.

I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.

What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?

budget?

I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.

So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.

Does that help?

Seconded on a BMW X series (5 is the biggest, 3 is a smaller 5 and 1 is the SUV of the Touring). Or touring if you prefer closer to the ground and traditional rear wheel drive.

But we are all skating on thin ice here once Dura comes on and spells out exactly what it is you actually do need.

X7 is the largest BMW SUV. This discussion is like watching me try to opine on wine or coffee.

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

We are can't take a stance or join a lobbying campaign, but we are taking a stance....

The BBC as a corporation cannot take part in the campaign. We have special duties that don't apply to other organisations under our Royal Charter and editorial guidelines that prevent us from joining lobbying campaigns. So while we have firm policies to deal with online abuse, the corporation cannot join a lobbying campaign no matter how worthy the cause.

This does not mean that the BBC is neutral on issues such as racism or hate crime. They are abhorrent.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/56942511

I genuinely don't see what all these clubs not tweeting for a couple of days will achieve.

Lady on TalkSPORT was keen to stress that it is a social media boycott rather than a blackout as the latter phrase has negative racial connotations.

TimT said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Whatever - we are never going to agree

Exactly , you spouting about things you have absolutely NO clue about is extremely pointless.

Except for the fact you don't provide any evidence of anything that actually generates money.

Maybe not an entirely non-partisan source, but here is some data to start with:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/scotland-is-one-of-the-worlds-most-naturally-wealthy-nations/

Of course, some of the countries with the greatest natural resources wealth are not exactly paradigms of paradise. Russia, Congo ...

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Hartlepool: Labour Party now out to 2.7 with BF. Is this too big?

I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.

Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?

Might favour Labour if their GOTV op is superior.

But you know my feelings here. This should be a Con win and I personally don't think Lab at 2.7 is value.

Shouldn't you be in your idyllic leafy pub where you can just waltz in to their rose garden and have a cold beer on Downshire Hill?

I'm back now. Nice little interlude though. Couple of chilled ones in the middle of the day doesn't hurt. Felt no need to augment with any oysters, oddly.

The only downside was it still wasn't at all "leafy".

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1388131356870430723?s=19

Philip_Thompson said:

Just got my Covid Vaccine invitation via text! 💉😁

Will be going tomorrow morning.

38 years old, so into the thirties now.

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

Alistair said:

felix said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

Don’t forget as well, rUK will be paying Scottish pensions in the event of indy

More garbage, Scotland will pay its own pensions like normal countries, England will pay the debts it owes for the money people paid into their pension scam scheme or perhaps welch on their commitments.

There are no such 'debts' owed by England other than to english people. The OAP doesn't work that way. Current Scots would pay Scottish pensions , etc

The UK government guarantees to pay a state pension to anyone, UK citizen or not, that has made sufficient qualifying contributions.

The clown just talks through his posterior. They are so ignorant due to their bigotry that they cannot even rationalise that if you have paid someone for a pension they cannot just dump you, pathetic.

Except they're not dumping you, if you vote for independence then you're voting to dump them. Since pensions are PAYG, in the future Scottish taxes and Scottish pensions would be the responsibility of the Scottish state.

Otherwise are you expecting to still be paying taxes to Westminster in the future?

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

Alistair said:

felix said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

Don’t forget as well, rUK will be paying Scottish pensions in the event of indy

More garbage, Scotland will pay its own pensions like normal countries, England will pay the debts it owes for the money people paid into their pension scam scheme or perhaps welch on their commitments.

There are no such 'debts' owed by England other than to english people. The OAP doesn't work that way. Current Scots would pay Scottish pensions , etc

The UK government guarantees to pay a state pension to anyone, UK citizen or not, that has made sufficient qualifying contributions.

The clown just talks through his posterior. They are so ignorant due to their bigotry that they cannot even rationalise that if you have paid someone for a pension they cannot just dump you, pathetic.

Except they're not dumping you, if you vote for independence then you're voting to dump them. Since pensions are PAYG, in the future Scottish taxes and Scottish pensions would be the responsibility of the Scottish state.

Otherwise are you expecting to still be paying taxes to Westminster in the future?

The British state currently, right this second, pays non-uk citizens who are not resident in the UK a British state pension.

That's because the law says that anyone who has qualified for a state pension gets a state pension.

These are people who are currently no contributing a single penny of tax to the UK exchequer.

Now, non-residents do not get the annual _increases_ to the state pension - they get the pension at the level it was first awarded to them but that is the setup.

contrarian said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.

The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.

Fast forward twenty odd years.

I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.

I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.

What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?

Mini Countryman. It's a good size for London and fun to drive outside of London.

I've got a Mini John Cooper Works (and I'm picking up a new model, the 2021 version, today)

Yes yes, a girly car, overpriced, all that - but wow they are fast and growly and fantastic fun to drive

What's the engine size? 1600?

Theuniondivvie said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Whatever - we are never going to agree

Exactly , you spouting about things you have absolutely NO clue about is extremely pointless.

Except for the fact you don't provide any evidence of anything that actually generates money.

You are the one claiming to be the expert on Scotland's budget and resources , now you expect me to show how little you know.

Nope you claim it has large amounts of resources that generate real income and tax.

And I have not got a clue what they are as I don’t believe they exist.

As it’s impossible to prove a negative it makes sense to ask you to provide a list of things in Scotland (beyond oil and whiskey) that generate large amounts of profit and so tax...

'I really don't care if the Scots clear off' seems a long time and 100s of posts ago.

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.

The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.

Fast forward twenty odd years.

I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.

I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.

What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?

Mini Countryman. It's a good size for London and fun to drive outside of London.

I've got a Mini John Cooper Works (and I'm picking up a new model, the 2021 version, today)

Yes yes, a girly car, overpriced, all that - but wow they are fast and growly and fantastic fun to drive

eek said:

TimT said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Whatever - we are never going to agree

Exactly , you spouting about things you have absolutely NO clue about is extremely pointless.

Except for the fact you don't provide any evidence of anything that actually generates money.

Maybe not an entirely non-partisan source, but here is some data to start with:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/scotland-is-one-of-the-worlds-most-naturally-wealthy-nations/

Of course, some of the countries with the greatest natural resources wealth are not exactly paradigms of paradise. Russia, Congo ...

What tax revenue or profit comes from that. If it's just sat there being unutilised it's not worth anything.

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

Alistair said:

felix said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

Don’t forget as well, rUK will be paying Scottish pensions in the event of indy

More garbage, Scotland will pay its own pensions like normal countries, England will pay the debts it owes for the money people paid into their pension scam scheme or perhaps welch on their commitments.

There are no such 'debts' owed by England other than to english people. The OAP doesn't work that way. Current Scots would pay Scottish pensions , etc

The UK government guarantees to pay a state pension to anyone, UK citizen or not, that has made sufficient qualifying contributions.

The clown just talks through his posterior. They are so ignorant due to their bigotry that they cannot even rationalise that if you have paid someone for a pension they cannot just dump you, pathetic.

Except they're not dumping you, if you vote for independence then you're voting to dump them. Since pensions are PAYG, in the future Scottish taxes and Scottish pensions would be the responsibility of the Scottish state.

Otherwise are you expecting to still be paying taxes to Westminster in the future?

The British state currently, right this second, pays non-uk citizens who are not resident in the UK a British state pension.

That's because the law says that anyone who has qualified for a state pension gets a state pension.

These are people who are currently no contributing a single penny of tax to the UK exchequer.

Now, non-residents do not get the annual _increases_ to the state pension - they get the pension at the level it was first awarded to them but that is the setup.

Law? Which law? I mean this is really basic. Scotland would be outside of the UK for jurisdictional purposes. There's simply no way that and independent Scotland could count on the UK treasury for anything at all.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

malcolmg said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/

Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.

Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.

That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.

Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...

You really are ignorant of Scotland, it has far more natural resources than England.

Whatever - we are never going to agree

Exactly , you spouting about things you have absolutely NO clue about is extremely pointless.

Except for the fact you don't provide any evidence of anything that actually generates money.

You are the one claiming to be the expert on Scotland's budget and resources , now you expect me to show how little you know.

Nope you claim it has large amounts of resources that generate real income and tax.

And I have not got a clue what they are as I don’t believe they exist.

As it’s impossible to prove a negative it makes sense to ask you to provide a list of things in Scotland (beyond oil and whiskey) that generate large amounts of profit and so tax...

'I really don't care if the Scots clear off' seems a long time and 100s of posts ago.

Possibly they were just referring to you and malcolmg on here.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Just got my Covid Vaccine invitation via text! 💉😁

Will be going tomorrow morning.

38 years old, so into the thirties now.

Not long now, and good to see there's available slots for first doses without any issues or waiting for a week.

Indeed, I wasn't expecting to get my invite for a few more weeks.

The link came with an address I could get the jab at, and an option to choose different times at different dates. I chose the first available slot at 9:10am tomorrow morning. No point dilly dallying.

Beginning tomorrow we will be monitoring your post to see IF there are any signs of adverse reaction to the jab.

My prognostication: the vac may make your posts even nuttier than per usual!

[EDIT] Just kidding! (I think!!)

Dura_Ace said:

contrarian said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.

The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.

Fast forward twenty odd years.

I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.

I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.

What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?

Mini Countryman. It's a good size for London and fun to drive outside of London.

I've got a Mini John Cooper Works (and I'm picking up a new model, the 2021 version, today)

Yes yes, a girly car, overpriced, all that - but wow they are fast and growly and fantastic fun to drive

What's the engine size? 1600?

JCW Minis have the 2.0 BMW B48 IL4.

felix said:

NickyBreakspear said:

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-mayoral-parliamentary-scottish-welsh-elections-results-polls

Peter Kellner has summarised various targets for each party to claim success.

Conservatives

Open up a five-point lead over Labour in projected Britain-wide vote share
Re-elect Tory mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley and win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Gain Hartlepool parliamentary seat from Labour
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win at least 20 (out of 60) seats in Welsh Parliament
Gain votes in London mayoral election (having achieved 35 per cent of first-preference votes last time)

Labour

Overtake Tories in projected Britain-wide vote share
Win London mayoralty outright on first preference votes (44 per cent last time)
Defeat Tory incumbent mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley; win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Hold Hartlepool parliamentary seat
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win absolute majority in Welsh Parliament (two short last time)

Liberal Democrats

Win at least 16 per cent of projected Britain-wide vote share
Gain more council seats than they lose
Win at least 10 per cent of constituency vote in elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly (8 per cent in both elections last time)

SNP

Win overall majority in Scottish Parliament (they need 65 of the 129 seats; they won 63 last time)
Keep Alex Salmond’s new Alba party out of the parliament completely

Greens

Win at least 8 per cent of first preference votes in the London mayoral election
Gain 100 seats in English council elections
Add to the six seats they won last time in Scotland

Plaid Cymru

Win at least 15 seats in Welsh Assembly (12 last time)
Win at least 25 per cent of the vote in either the constituency or party list vote (21 per cent in both last time)

Golly - with targets like some of those I forecast that most will be losers!

williamglenn said:

Striking map.

williamglenn said:

There's a fun video of a Belgian parking in his garage which is only 6cm wider than the car. I doubt you could get a modern car that fits.

https://twitter.com/moylato/status/1387139670962843658