Setting the scene for next Thursday’s local elections – politicalbetting.com
Next Thursday, I think I’m safe in asserting, we will see the largest set of local elections ever to take place in England. This is because the group of seats that should have been voted on last year had their elections postponed and of course this year we have the 2017 cohort. On top of that we have several hundred local by-elections which have been delayed again because of the pandemic ban on election activity in England.
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On topic, from previous thread. I disagree with Mike.
"Latest YouGov has the Tories extending their lead: Con 44% ( - ) Labour 33% ( -1).
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5wmdyo10ta/TheTimes_Voting_Intention_Track_210428__W.pdf
Worth noting that when the 2017 local election seats were fought, the Tories also had an 11% lead over Labour on the actual result - albeit on 38%-27%. If Labour are to make any gains, they look to be from LibDems (7% now versus 18% actual in 2017). Labour will stand still as against the Tories at best (note YouGov has 3% for Refuk, but as most seats won't have a candidate that could add a point or two to the Tory lead).
Those seats last fought in 2016 could prove to be horrible for Labour, where they actually finished one point ahead of the Tories on 31%, Tories on 30%, LibDems 15%, UKIP 12%. Looking at projections for these seats - where they won 1326 Councillors to the Tories 842 - may be where the gloom in Labour's internal machine is coming from.
Starmer could be down 200-250 councillors after next Thursday."0 -
Super Thursday ! Will it be the most ever UK seperate elections on one day ?0
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Looking at those poll averages, the Tories with a 20% lead over Labour before the 2017 county elections compared to only a 9% lead over Labour now you would expect Labour to gain county council seats from the Tories on Thursday. However the LDs were on 10% in 2017 compared to only 7% now so the Tories might gain some county seats from LDs (albeit LDs going Nimby in the Home Counties will likely reduce that chance).
In the district elections the Tories only had a 3% lead in 2016 so could even make gains from Labour in the district elections, the LDs are unchanged from what they were on in 2016 but the Tories could still make gains from the LDs where there was a UKIP candidate in 2016 and will not be next week0 -
Brexit is done
Brexit means we can do trade deals
Brexit: Anger over government's failure to get Norway fishing deal - BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-569409142 -
Is there a ready reckoner anywhere of what was last fought in 2016 ?MarqueeMark said:On topic, from previous thread. I disagree with Mike.
"Latest YouGov has the Tories extending their lead: Con 44% ( - ) Labour 33% ( -1).
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5wmdyo10ta/TheTimes_Voting_Intention_Track_210428__W.pdf
Worth noting that when the 2017 local election seats were fought, the Tories also had an 11% lead over Labour on the actual result - albeit on 38%-27%. If Labour are to make any gains, they look to be from LibDems (7% now versus 18% actual in 2017). Labour will stand still as against the Tories at best (note YouGov has 3% for Refuk, but as most seats won't have a candidate that could add a point or two to the Tory lead).
Those seats last fought in 2016 could prove to be horrible for Labour, where they actually finished one point ahead of the Tories on 31%, Tories on 30%, LibDems 15%, UKIP 12%. Looking at projections for these seats - where they won 1326 Councillors to the Tories 842 - may be where the gloom in Labour's internal machine is coming from.
Starmer could be down 200-250 councillors after next Thursday."0 -
My son in law had a complete knee replacement operation earlier this week and I went to collect him this morning from Wrexham
Returning along the A55 it was wonderful to see the number of caravans, campervans, and holiday traffic coming back again and great for our tourism in North Wales
At the same time traveling out of Wales were Irish HGVs, obviously from a recent ferry docking at Holyhead, and to be fair the volume seemed much as normal.
Getting nearer Llandudno, the fairways on the golf course, freshly mown, were full of golfers
It was as if we were witnessing a reawakening from hibernation and it was a joyful sight
I would very surprised if Boris and HMG do not get a bounce in next week's elections as the feel good factor returns, and I very much doubt minds will be on the wallpaper in his flat4 -
I find it difficult to feel sorry for the fishermen who have been truly hoist by their own petard.Scott_xP said:Brexit is done
Brexit means we can do trade deals
Brexit: Anger over government's failure to get Norway fishing deal - BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-569409140 -
So much "anger" that not a single Brexiteer here seems to be bothered by it.Scott_xP said:Brexit is done
Brexit means we can do trade deals
Brexit: Anger over government's failure to get Norway fishing deal - BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56940914
In fact even on the media reporting it seems just one particular limited company, with a rather pretentious name, with one large trawler, that seems to be doing the complaining.
I'm wondering who does more trawling - the Kirkella, or you looking for things to whinge about?0 -
Looks like John Barrowman is about to be cancelled !0
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Its hard to underplay the feeling of relief getting vaccinated, especially when you see the scenes in places like India.Big_G_NorthWales said:My son in law had a complete knee replacement operation earlier this week and I went to collect him this morning from Wrexham
Returning along the A55 it was wonderful to see the number of caravans, campervans, and holiday traffic coming back again and great for our tourism in North Wales
At the same time traveling out of Wales were Irish HGVs, obviously from a recent ferry docking at Holyhead, and to be fair the volume seemed much as normal.
Getting nearer Llandudno, the fairways on the golf course, freshly mown, were full of golfers
It was as if we were witnessing a reawakening from hibernation and it was a joyful sight
I would very surprised if Boris and HMG do not get a bounce in next week's elections as the feel good factor returns, and I very much doubt minds will be on the wallpaper in his flat2 -
Nicola Sturgeon has just destroyed Edinburgh Tourism
'Alderson puts it bluntly: “I fear the Edinburgh Festival is being driven out of Scotland. It’s leaving Edinburgh.”'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/theatre/what-to-see/nicola-sturgeons-disgraceful-two-metre-rule-threatens-cultural/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr&onwardjourney=web-4346-morestories_variation0 -
The entertainment industry is rotten to the core....while always preaching to the world how wrong they are about everything.Pulpstar said:Looks like John Barrowman is about to be cancelled !
The sexual harassment and general depravity, the tax dodging, the hypocrisy over green issues, etc etc etc....but its all ok, we gave the best director Oscar to a "woman of colour"....so we are the good guys, sorry should check their pronouns first.0 -
June Mummery, fishing maven and Brexiter was on LBC this morning screaming that she has been betrayed by Boris.
Brexit is going “8/10” for the fishing industry, she says (Confusingly, she’s using 10, rather than zero, to indicate the worst possible outcome).0 -
TOOOOOOOO CONFUSING would be the wall to wall headlines....If Boris suggested them.Leon said:Nicola Sturgeon has just destroyed Edinburgh Tourism
'Alderson puts it bluntly: “I fear the Edinburgh Festival is being driven out of Scotland. It’s leaving Edinburgh.”'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/theatre/what-to-see/nicola-sturgeons-disgraceful-two-metre-rule-threatens-cultural/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr&onwardjourney=web-4346-morestories_variation0 -
Blimey. I hope he makes a great recovery. Heck of an op.Big_G_NorthWales said:My son in law had a complete knee replacement operation earlier this week a
And your lovely comments about vaccinations and the palpable relief is so true.0 -
I feel like I haven't bet enough on this one.Pulpstar said:Super Thursday ! Will it be the most ever UK seperate elections on one day ?
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I mentioned this morning that I really couldn't care a less if Boris has syphoned off funds to refurb his family accommodation, especially as it's sub-par for a world leader.
All I care about right now is that the Gov't continue this fantastic vaccine rollout, that nothing stops it and, with it, the return of our freedoms.
I will care about other things again some day, I'm sure.2 -
I think the media will go 1. Hartlepool 2. Scotland 3. London/WM mayors 4. Net gains/losses, comparative year disregarded 5. BBC calculated vote share. Everything else will only get local reports.
What is the sequence with which results will come through? Most County seats are counting on Friday, I believe. So Hartlepool/Mayors/some district seats late Thursday, Counties and other districts Friday, Scotland late Friday?1 -
FTPT
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.0 -
It was amazing to have a complete knee replacement and (not for the squeamishl) the surgeon, following the completion of the operation under an epidural which numbed his legs, lifted his leg, rotated the knee, bent it up and down and my son in law was amazed at the result even while under gentle sedationCocky_cockney said:
Blimey. I hope he makes a great recovery. Heck of an op.Big_G_NorthWales said:My son in law had a complete knee replacement operation earlier this week a
And your lovely comments about vaccinations and the palpable relief is so true.
Advances in medical procedures are amazing though he faces upto 3 months rehabilitation
And yes vaccination has been a world leading success and for that Boris deserves congratulations from us all2 -
Wales says 'Hi' NickNickPalmer said:I think the media will go 1. Hartlepool 2. Scotland 3. London/WM mayors 4. Net gains/losses, comparative year disregarded 5. BBC calculated vote share. Everything else will only get local reports.
What is the sequence with which results will come through? Most County seats are counting on Friday, I believe. So Hartlepool/Mayors/some district seats late Thursday, Counties and other districts Friday, Scotland late Friday?3 -
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There's a kid on YouTube that's part of the Waymo trial who records his trips and put the video up. They're very impressive but it doesn't feel quite there yet.Alistair said:FTPT
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.
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Motorway cruising cars will be allowed in UK this year - beyond that it's very difficult to see when the next stage of problems will be fixed enough to allow things to expand.Alistair said:FTPT
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.
But for a lot of journeys automated steering while on a motorway will make those journeys a lot more pleasant.0 -
Smarkets just opened a Chesham & Amersham by-election exchange market. Tories currently 1.12
https://smarkets.com/event/42195394/politics/uk/by-elections/chesham-and-amersham-by-election0 -
Means you can get bladdered down the dog and duck and car will take you homeeek said:
Motorway cruising cars will be allowed in UK this year - beyond that it's very difficult to see when the next stage of problems will be fixed enough to allow things to expand.Alistair said:FTPT
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.
But for a lot of journeys automated steering while on a motorway will make those journeys a lot more pleasant.1 -
True. But cars cost from tens of thousands of pounds, to thousands, to hundreds of pounds depending upon whether you get a new or second-hand, top-end or entry level model. For many people insuring a car and its running costs will be more than actually purchasing a vehicle. But if you're using it on a daily basis it can still be much cheaper than paying private hire.Charles said:
But the Uber user hasn’t tied up capital in a car. It’s just like a PFI solution - less good and costs more but you don’t have to buy and operate it yourselfPhilip_Thompson said:
Horses were replaced because people could get a personal chassis that would move an order of magnitude faster than the horse.Leon said:
Exactly right. On this issue we are seers, and the rest of PB is too dull-witted to comprehendkinabalu said:
I think this is right - about cars being on their way out.Leon said:
Not insane at all. ClairvoyantGallowgate said:This has recently been completed. It is the tallest building in the North East, I believe.
https://www.hadrianstower.com
It comes with zero car parking, other than a bit of "on street parking". Zero car parking for "luxury apartments"!
Absolutely insane.
Cars are going. Electric self drive cars will be here in 5-10 years. World changing. No need to own a car. It will transform our cities for the better, making them cleaner, quieter, lovelier. All those car parks, drives, garages? - gone. They can be turned into urban woodlands. Marvellous.
Embrace the future
A good technique (if you can do it) for predicting the future is to go out and view the environment as one of those "Cadbury's Smash Aliens" would. Disassociate yourself from the reality you've grown accustomed to and look at things afresh through the question, "Does this really make sense?"
If you do this, the sight of all these small yet bulky metallic boxes strewn all over the place, occasionally being used to transport just one or two flesh & blood units in a slow, painful manner from one place to another place, it will suddenly strike you as absurd.
You'll shake your head in wonder as this dawns. Then you'll have a giggle (like in the advert) and know for a fact that in not too many years from now they will have disappeared.
The Osmonds were onto this before anybody. Crazy Horses, wooo, wooo. Got to number 2 in 1972.
Imagine trying to explain to people why everyone rides horses.
What, you climb on top of a massive half-domesticated animal, with a tendency to bolt, and you order it to walk you somewhere in the city by threatening it with a stick, and so it slowly walks around as it craps on small children and pisses on old ladies, and then it dies and it is turned into glue?
Taxis, Ubers, whatever you want to call them are vastly inferior to a personal car. They're not yours, they're not personalised, they're not available on demand, they don't have your own equipment in them. If I want to take my kids to school I get them ready, step out of my house, through my garden and into my car. Their car seats are already there. I then drive and am at the school a few minutes later.
Why would I trade that for hailing an Uber, that will arrive without car seats, that will take about as long to get to me as the drive itself takes?
Its a vastly inferior service. That's why we already don't use it.
Personally I've got the same vehicle I bought new a decade ago. Its a very well built vehicle that has lasted very well, and I made the decision years ago that I wasn't going to replace it with another petrol vehicle unless I had to, so I will either run it into the ground, or until I replace it with an electric one. So I have to pay fuel, maintenance costs, insurance etc - but that's a fraction of the cost of if I paid private hire vehicles to take me everywhere I go.
If I was to replace this vehicle with another 60-reg vehicle it wouldn't cost much in the way of capital.0 -
Parishes saturday!NickPalmer said:I think the media will go 1. Hartlepool 2. Scotland 3. London/WM mayors 4. Net gains/losses, comparative year disregarded 5. BBC calculated vote share. Everything else will only get local reports.
What is the sequence with which results will come through? Most County seats are counting on Friday, I believe. So Hartlepool/Mayors/some district seats late Thursday, Counties and other districts Friday, Scotland late Friday?0 -
Err, no!malcolmg said:
Means you can get bladdered down the dog and duck and car will take you homeeek said:
Motorway cruising cars will be allowed in UK this year - beyond that it's very difficult to see when the next stage of problems will be fixed enough to allow things to expand.Alistair said:FTPT
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.
But for a lot of journeys automated steering while on a motorway will make those journeys a lot more pleasant.1 -
That's just about the last (if not the last) thing an automated car will be allowed to do.malcolmg said:
Means you can get bladdered down the dog and duck and car will take you homeeek said:
Motorway cruising cars will be allowed in UK this year - beyond that it's very difficult to see when the next stage of problems will be fixed enough to allow things to expand.Alistair said:FTPT
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.
But for a lot of journeys automated steering while on a motorway will make those journeys a lot more pleasant.1 -
Hartlepool: Labour Party now out to 2.7 with BF. Is this too big?
I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.
Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?0 -
Meanwhile we have big Autonomous Community election in Spain on Tuesday with PP riding high and a big slump in the PSOE expected vote. Bit of a surprise compared to national polling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Madrilenian_regional_election1 -
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.0 -
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...1 -
Might favour Labour if their GOTV op is superior.Stocky said:Hartlepool: Labour Party now out to 2.7 with BF. Is this too big?
I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.
Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?
But you know my feelings here. This should be a Con win and I personally don't think Lab at 2.7 is value.1 -
Don’t forget as well, rUK will be paying Scottish pensions in the event of indyeek said:
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...2 -
What proportion are PVs already in I wonder. Still expect a tight Labour hold.kinabalu said:
Might favour Labour if their GOTV op is superior.Stocky said:Hartlepool: Labour Party now out to 2.7 with BF. Is this too big?
I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.
Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?
But you know my feelings here. This should be a Con win and I personally don't think Lab at 2.7 is value.0 -
it's all highly paradoxical. Sturgeon won't want any referendum if the polls stay like this, with NO in the lead. Her ideal position is to ask for one, and get refused (the likeliest outcome). Even then she will face a nightmare of splits in her party, as the nutters demand UDIeek said:
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...1 -
Why should the rest of us be expected to subsidise the Scots?eek said:
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...
If they wish to control their own destiny, if the economics is neutral, then they should do so. We shouldn't be spending our money to bribe them to stay in a union they don't want for other reasons.0 -
Shouldn't you be in your idyllic leafy pub where you can just waltz in to their rose garden and have a cold beer on Downshire Hill?kinabalu said:
Might favour Labour if their GOTV op is superior.Stocky said:Hartlepool: Labour Party now out to 2.7 with BF. Is this too big?
I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.
Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?
But you know my feelings here. This should be a Con win and I personally don't think Lab at 2.7 is value.1 -
Normally I’d expect over half to be returned by now - my guess would be 60%, with the remainder divided between the last weekend, and those that get taken to the polling station (perhaps less of those this year). An anecdotal report from our council is that the return of postal votes is so far lower than expected, especially with more applications due to the pandemic.felix said:
What proportion are PVs already in I wonder. Still expect a tight Labour hold.kinabalu said:
Might favour Labour if their GOTV op is superior.Stocky said:Hartlepool: Labour Party now out to 2.7 with BF. Is this too big?
I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.
Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?
But you know my feelings here. This should be a Con win and I personally don't think Lab at 2.7 is value.1 -
FPT
£11m well spent say the developers, as the government mysteriously refuse to engage with millions of occupants stuck in unsaleable properties and instead backs the developers.Jonathan said:
Surely the government can do better than that, it is unreasonable for leaseholders to take such a crippling share of responsibility for what has obviously been systemic failure. It's not as if there is moral hazard at work and these leaseholders could have done much if anything to avoid this. A classic case for the government to step in.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/30/family-facing-40000-fire-safety-bill-told-they-can-contact-samaritans
Call the samaritans if you feel suicidal advises Jenrick aide to a family who are now fucked in their inferno risk flat.
Surely the correct advice is to buy a ticket for a Tory fundraiser. Jenrick would sort them out no problem.
I'm not saying the government is doing the direct bidding of its donors, but - no hang on, I AM saying that.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-party-property-developer-boris-johnson-conservative-donors-a9588381.html1 -
Yeah I can't figure out where this pub is, neither can my wife and we lived in Hampstead for 7 years. 🤔Leon said:
Shouldn't you be in your idyllic leafy pub where you can just waltz in to their rose garden and have a cold beer on Downshire Hill?kinabalu said:
Might favour Labour if their GOTV op is superior.Stocky said:Hartlepool: Labour Party now out to 2.7 with BF. Is this too big?
I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.
Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?
But you know my feelings here. This should be a Con win and I personally don't think Lab at 2.7 is value.0 -
I wonder how much awareness there is in the non-political society that there is an election ongoing right now, without campaigning etc?
Not much sign of it in my area. Received a few leaflets from the Tories, a couple from Labour, no others. On my road there's not many placards advertising parties - the house nearby that permanently flies a Unite the Union flag has a Vote Labour placard on its fence. Not seen any others.
At the last general election there were many more placards. Kinabalu might be interested to know that last time the houses that fly Union Jack flags mostly but not all had Tory placards at the General Election. None of them have placards so far, only the Unite flag flying garden one does.0 -
I didn't say I like the idea (I would prefer Scottish independence for the popcorn value) but the Barnett Formula shows how that side of things work.Philip_Thompson said:
Why should the rest of us be expected to subsidise the Scots?eek said:
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...
If they wish to control their own destiny, if the economics is neutral, then they should do so. We shouldn't be spending our money to bribe them to stay in a union they don't want for other reasons.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14982 has some great charts that shows the type of information the Better Together side needs to ensure everyone in Scotland fully comprehends and understands (basically independence means losing a lot of the sweeties such as free university and prescriptions).1 -
They are counting Hartlepool on the night, but they are validating first. With council AND Mayor AND the PCC AND the byelection to validate, it will be very very late by the time they actually start counting.NickPalmer said:I think the media will go 1. Hartlepool 2. Scotland 3. London/WM mayors 4. Net gains/losses, comparative year disregarded 5. BBC calculated vote share. Everything else will only get local reports.
What is the sequence with which results will come through? Most County seats are counting on Friday, I believe. So Hartlepool/Mayors/some district seats late Thursday, Counties and other districts Friday, Scotland late Friday?2 -
It works as a quick fix to dump a large amount in one place and upset fewer people overall, so might be more popular than acrually better options. Just looking for something which get through the Shire objectors.Gardenwalker said:
Why?kle4 said:We need some new towns. That's definitely popular in generality and not particular though.
Generally speaking, New Towns is failed model.
There’s no space for them anyway.0 -
I remain optimistic/stupid in the hope that sensible heads prevail and we discuss a viable constitutional settlement for the successor to the current mess. Regardless of whether that happens or not, if a majority of MSPs are elected on a second referendum mandate then that is the Will Of The People and has to be listened to.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.0 -
Useless theneek said:
That's just about the last (if not the last) thing an automated car will be allowed to do.malcolmg said:
Means you can get bladdered down the dog and duck and car will take you homeeek said:
Motorway cruising cars will be allowed in UK this year - beyond that it's very difficult to see when the next stage of problems will be fixed enough to allow things to expand.Alistair said:FTPT
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.
But for a lot of journeys automated steering while on a motorway will make those journeys a lot more pleasant.0 -
Another reason for backing a free market in development, there'd be no reason for developers to seek political favours if there were a free for all. 😉RochdalePioneers said:FPT
£11m well spent say the developers, as the government mysteriously refuse to engage with millions of occupants stuck in unsaleable properties and instead backs the developers.Jonathan said:
Surely the government can do better than that, it is unreasonable for leaseholders to take such a crippling share of responsibility for what has obviously been systemic failure. It's not as if there is moral hazard at work and these leaseholders could have done much if anything to avoid this. A classic case for the government to step in.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/30/family-facing-40000-fire-safety-bill-told-they-can-contact-samaritans
Call the samaritans if you feel suicidal advises Jenrick aide to a family who are now fucked in their inferno risk flat.
Surely the correct advice is to buy a ticket for a Tory fundraiser. Jenrick would sort them out no problem.
I'm not saying the government is doing the direct bidding of its donors, but - no hang on, I AM saying that.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-party-property-developer-boris-johnson-conservative-donors-a9588381.html0 -
Is that true if SNP / Greens / Alba only have 45-49% of the vote?RochdalePioneers said:
I remain optimistic/stupid in the hope that sensible heads prevail and we discuss a viable constitutional settlement for the successor to the current mess. Regardless of whether that happens or not, if a majority of MSPs are elected on a second referendum mandate then that is the Will Of The People and has to be listened to.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.0 -
Some areas are going validate Friday, county Saturday, parishes Sunday,pcc Monday.IanB2 said:
Parishes saturday!NickPalmer said:I think the media will go 1. Hartlepool 2. Scotland 3. London/WM mayors 4. Net gains/losses, comparative year disregarded 5. BBC calculated vote share. Everything else will only get local reports.
What is the sequence with which results will come through? Most County seats are counting on Friday, I believe. So Hartlepool/Mayors/some district seats late Thursday, Counties and other districts Friday, Scotland late Friday?0 -
Never heard of it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Wales says 'Hi' NickNickPalmer said:I think the media will go 1. Hartlepool 2. Scotland 3. London/WM mayors 4. Net gains/losses, comparative year disregarded 5. BBC calculated vote share. Everything else will only get local reports.
What is the sequence with which results will come through? Most County seats are counting on Friday, I believe. So Hartlepool/Mayors/some district seats late Thursday, Counties and other districts Friday, Scotland late Friday?2 -
Scaremongering rubbish, no need to lose anything other than the crap UK Trident , London infrastructure spending , HS2 and other vanity projects. England gives us nothing , we pay for it and they borrow money to spend on crap that we would never do.eek said:
I didn't say I like the idea (I would prefer Scottish independence for the popcorn value) but the Barnett Formula shows how that side of things work.Philip_Thompson said:
Why should the rest of us be expected to subsidise the Scots?eek said:
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...
If they wish to control their own destiny, if the economics is neutral, then they should do so. We shouldn't be spending our money to bribe them to stay in a union they don't want for other reasons.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14982 has some great charts that shows the type of information the Better Together side needs to ensure everyone in Scotland fully comprehends and understands (basically independence means losing a lot of the sweeties such as free university and prescriptions).0 -
Yep - to get to the point a drunk can be allowed unaccompanied in a car - the steering wheel needs to go and that I reckon is 20+ years away.malcolmg said:
Useless theneek said:
That's just about the last (if not the last) thing an automated car will be allowed to do.malcolmg said:
Means you can get bladdered down the dog and duck and car will take you homeeek said:
Motorway cruising cars will be allowed in UK this year - beyond that it's very difficult to see when the next stage of problems will be fixed enough to allow things to expand.Alistair said:FTPT
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.
But for a lot of journeys automated steering while on a motorway will make those journeys a lot more pleasant.0 -
I've had an off the wall idea re the wallpaper (ho ho).
The PM says he has now "covered" the costs. Odd word that - "covered".
Maybe what has happened is that the entire sum has been paid by the annual £30k allowance - using unused annual allowances from previous years and years to come. The original donor has been repaid from that sum. So the entire cost has come from the taxpayer but using the annual allowance the PM has for his flat.
The PM has not paid anything himself. He has simply covered the costs out of his annual allowance. The taxpayer has not been charged anything more than they would have been had the allowance been used up every year.
This would explain the tortured refusals to explain everything simply - not just because it looks greedy to blow a 5-year budget in one go but also because it looks bad to have to repay the original rich Tory donor.
Maybe completely wrong of course.
Oh and I doubt it will affect a single vote.6 -
More garbage, Scotland will pay its own pensions like normal countries, England will pay the debts it owes for the money people paid into their pension scam scheme or perhaps welch on their commitments.Razedabode said:
Don’t forget as well, rUK will be paying Scottish pensions in the event of indyeek said:
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...0 -
Could easily be - did @Charles speculate a similar thing (the allowance brought forward)?Cyclefree said:I've had an off the wall idea re the wallpaper (ho ho).
The PM says he has now "covered" the costs. Odd word that - "covered".
Maybe what has happened is that the entire sum has been paid by the annual £30k allowance - using unused annual allowances from previous years and years to come. The original donor has been repaid from that sum. So the entire cost has come from the taxpayer but using the annual allowance the PM has for his flat.
The PM has not paid anything himself. He has simply covered the costs out of his annual allowance. The taxpayer has not been charged anything more than they would have been had the allowance been used up every year.
This would explain the tortured refusals to explain everything simply - not just because it looks greedy to blow a 5-year budget in one go but also because it looks bad to have to repay the original rich Tory donor.
Maybe completely wrong of course.
Oh and I doubt it will affect a single vote.
"Covered" is certainly very carefully used and stands out in Boris' pronouncements over the issue.1 -
Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?0 -
I guess SNP minority with Greens is technically the best available option. It doesnt change that if the parliament supports a ref they should get one, but at least the SNP would have less reason to be personally smug.0
-
"582,163 new vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (ex NI)
🏴 110,976 1st doses / 395,043 2nd doses
🏴 5,342 / 40,232
🏴 14,513 / 16,057
(NI has changed its reporting in a way which would make day-to-day comparison misleading)"1 -
I am looking out for if and how the anti-Tory vote is beginning to shape up, and specifically whether there are any Green shoots.
0 -
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?0 -
Remember I have no problem with Scotland leaving - I just want the right to say we told you so if/ when it all goes pearshaped.malcolmg said:
Scaremongering rubbish, no need to lose anything other than the crap UK Trident , London infrastructure spending , HS2 and other vanity projects. England gives us nothing , we pay for it and they borrow money to spend on crap that we would never do.eek said:
I didn't say I like the idea (I would prefer Scottish independence for the popcorn value) but the Barnett Formula shows how that side of things work.Philip_Thompson said:
Why should the rest of us be expected to subsidise the Scots?eek said:
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...
If they wish to control their own destiny, if the economics is neutral, then they should do so. We shouldn't be spending our money to bribe them to stay in a union they don't want for other reasons.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14982 has some great charts that shows the type of information the Better Together side needs to ensure everyone in Scotland fully comprehends and understands (basically independence means losing a lot of the sweeties such as free university and prescriptions).
PS that "If" is there for you as am 100% certain the Scottish finances are not anywhere near as rosy as you think they are..0 -
BMW X series. (SUV-ish)Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?0 -
I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.Jonathan said:
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?0 -
It really depends upon what you want, do you want a saloon or SUV? Sporty or hatchback? Value for money or money no object? Electric or petrol?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
If you've got a driveway I'm guessing that makes electric recharging more viable if you're bothered by that.0 -
The ONS survey shows very good news in dropping infections.
I've said for a while that we'll have an indication when we're nearing herd immunity (without restrictions), because when infections are dropping at, say, 50% per week with the restrictions we've got, we probably won't be far off (assuming current restrictions impair R by about a factor of 2, taking into account the level of (eroding) compliance).
They've halved in two weeks, from being reasonably constant for a few weeks before that. Of course, there's chunky error bars involved, but that could be a pointer to us passing the inflexion point on increasing immunity.
I genuinely think they could bring the 17th of May relaxation forwards by two weeks based on this data, and be ready to bring the 21st of June relaxation forwards significantly as well when more data comes in.0 -
Suburu ForresterGardenwalker said:
I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.Jonathan said:
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?0 -
Saloon.
Utility is more important than sportiness.
I at least need to feel I am getting value for money.
Yes, electric would be desirable but I am a bit hostile to Tesla and the broader market seems a bit immature.0 -
If Scotland do get a second referendum, surely the question will be Remain/Leave, not the biased yes/no question.0
-
Mini Countryman. It's a good size for London and fun to drive outside of London.Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?0 -
If you want utility, a saloon is not necessarily the best option. A crossover saloon/SUV is the way to go. Suburu Forrester.Gardenwalker said:Saloon.
Utility is more important than sportiness.
I at least need to feel I am getting value for money.
Yes, electric would be desirable but I am a bit hostile to Tesla and the broader market seems a bit immature.0 -
I have a lot of time for the Asian brands as a rule of thumb, they tend to have much better value for money than the British or European brands and are a very good quality. Frequently just as often made here too.Gardenwalker said:
I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.Jonathan said:
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?
I've not looked into new cars in a long time. My car is a Kia. It was far cheaper when I bought it than comparable cars then due to being a relatively unknown brand, but came with a seven year warranty as opposed to a three year one. I would strongly recommend them as a brand and anyone I know with a Kia has said the same, but I don't know if they're still as good value for money as they used to be.
I think they still all come now with a seven year warranty as standard which speaks to their respect in their own quality and reliability - not sure what other brands are like.
EDIT: Kia C'eed is my model, sort of an SUV but not as big as most SUVs. Would probably suit unless you want something smaller.0 -
Cheap, green, boring enough to forget about it, easy in the city and capable of going out from time to time with two small kids .Gardenwalker said:
I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.Jonathan said:
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?
* Ford Fiesta 1.0l Ecoboost
* Toyota Yaris Hybrid
A Ford Focus if you need more space. Like I say boring, but reliable.
Check out the tax rules, some years are cheaper than others.0 -
First Boris will refuse indyref2 regardless as 2014 was a once in a generation referendum, if a referendum is granted by the UK government before a generation has elapsed even if No narrowly wins the Nationalists would demand a third referendum within a year.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Second a plurality of Scottish Green voters now oppose independence so only an SNP and Alba majority can even be considered to have a mandate for indyref2, an SNP and Green majority will not count
https://archive.ph/eg2lt0 -
Seconded on a BMW X series (5 is the biggest, 3 is a smaller 5 and 1 is the SUV of the Touring). Or touring if you prefer closer to the ground and traditional rear wheel drive.Gardenwalker said:
I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.Jonathan said:
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?
But we are all skating on thin ice here once Dura comes on and spells out exactly what it is you actually do need.2 -
And for commuting to and from your salon.MaxPB said:
Mini Countryman. It's a good size for London and fun to drive outside of London.Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
1 -
There are no such 'debts' owed by England other than to english people. The OAP doesn't work that way. Current Scots would pay Scottish pensions , etcmalcolmg said:
More garbage, Scotland will pay its own pensions like normal countries, England will pay the debts it owes for the money people paid into their pension scam scheme or perhaps welch on their commitments.Razedabode said:
Don’t forget as well, rUK will be paying Scottish pensions in the event of indyeek said:
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...1 -
Thanks for the achingly dull recommendations, although I accept my requirement is achingly dull.
So, do I buy or lease?0 -
Someone (could have been you) put it perfectly yesterday. Apols I can't remember:Andy_Cooke said:The ONS survey shows very good news in dropping infections.
I've said for a while that we'll have an indication when we're nearing herd immunity (without restrictions), because when infections are dropping at, say, 50% per week with the restrictions we've got, we probably won't be far off (assuming current restrictions impair R by about a factor of 2, taking into account the level of (eroding) compliance).
They've halved in two weeks, from being reasonably constant for a few weeks before that. Of course, there's chunky error bars involved, but that could be a pointer to us passing the inflexion point on increasing immunity.
I genuinely think they could bring the 17th of May relaxation forwards by two weeks based on this data, and be ready to bring the 21st of June relaxation forwards significantly as well when more data comes in.
Rhetoric is data not dates, policy is dates not data.0 -
Hyundai Ioniq 5 or VW ID.4 both have good interiors.Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
93kwh Taycan is a great car if the budget allows.
I've just bought a manual '07 997 Turbo with a blown turbo and a roasted clutch. She's fucking mint.1 -
Better than an Evoque!TOPPING said:
And for commuting to and from your salon.MaxPB said:
Mini Countryman. It's a good size for London and fun to drive outside of London.Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?0 -
I've recently bought a Hyundai i10 as a runaround and for my daughters to learn to drive in. It's perfect. It replaces a Audi A1 which I would have gone for again but for the insurance cost for learner drivers.Philip_Thompson said:
I have a lot of time for the Asian brands as a rule of thumb, they tend to have much better value for money than the British or European brands and are a very good quality. Frequently just as often made here too.Gardenwalker said:
I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.Jonathan said:
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?
I've not looked into new cars in a long time. My car is a Kia. It was far cheaper when I bought it than comparable cars then due to being a relatively unknown brand, but came with a seven year warranty as opposed to a three year one. I would strongly recommend them as a brand and anyone I know with a Kia has said the same, but I don't know if they're still as good value for money as they used to be.
I think they still all come now with a seven year warranty as standard which speaks to their respect in their own quality and reliability - not sure what other brands are like.
EDIT: Kia C'eed is my model, sort of an SUV but not as big as most SUVs. Would probably suit unless you want something smaller.
All cars are plasticky these days aren't they?
I'd recommend either of above two cars but maybe look at minis as well?1 -
LOL true!MaxPB said:
Better than an Evoque!TOPPING said:
And for commuting to and from your salon.MaxPB said:
Mini Countryman. It's a good size for London and fun to drive outside of London.Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?0 -
Just got my Covid Vaccine invitation via text! 💉😁
Will be going tomorrow morning.
38 years old, so into the thirties now.11 -
FWIW I buy and write it off. Probably not the cheapest, but I simply can't be arsed with leases and finance on cars and all the Delboy nonsense that goes with it.Gardenwalker said:Thanks for the achingly dull recommendations, although I accept my requirement is achingly dull.
So, do I buy or lease?1 -
Whisky!eek said:
That is actually my expected result - the issue needs to be laid to bed and the only way to do that is for the Scottish to see how much they are subsidised by the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Although I support Scottish independence, I think the funniest result "for the bantz" would be SNP minority, majority with Greens, second referendum occurs, second referendum goes No.RochdalePioneers said:https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19270556.john-curtice-polls-show-snp-independence-support-slipping/
Professor JohnCurtice (for it is He) says that whilst SNP support is slipping, the Greens are romping along, so a majority of MSPs will support independence. Strap yourselves in - when HYUFD explodes as a result of Boris doing what he has endlessly said he won't do, it will be messy.
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...0 -
Fantastic. Welcome aboard.Philip_Thompson said:Just got my Covid Vaccine invitation via text! 💉😁
Will be going tomorrow morning.
38 years old, so into the thirties now.2 -
X7 is the largest BMW SUV. This discussion is like watching me try to opine on wine or coffee.TOPPING said:
Seconded on a BMW X series (5 is the biggest, 3 is a smaller 5 and 1 is the SUV of the Touring). Or touring if you prefer closer to the ground and traditional rear wheel drive.Gardenwalker said:
I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.Jonathan said:
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?
But we are all skating on thin ice here once Dura comes on and spells out exactly what it is you actually do need.0 -
They've been using that method in the Outer Hebrides for years, with mixed success.malcolmg said:
Means you can get bladdered down the dog and duck and car will take you homeeek said:
Motorway cruising cars will be allowed in UK this year - beyond that it's very difficult to see when the next stage of problems will be fixed enough to allow things to expand.Alistair said:FTPT
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.
But for a lot of journeys automated steering while on a motorway will make those journeys a lot more pleasant.0 -
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-mayoral-parliamentary-scottish-welsh-elections-results-polls
Peter Kellner has summarised various targets for each party to claim success.
Conservatives
Open up a five-point lead over Labour in projected Britain-wide vote share
Re-elect Tory mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley and win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Gain Hartlepool parliamentary seat from Labour
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win at least 20 (out of 60) seats in Welsh Parliament
Gain votes in London mayoral election (having achieved 35 per cent of first-preference votes last time)
Labour
Overtake Tories in projected Britain-wide vote share
Win London mayoralty outright on first preference votes (44 per cent last time)
Defeat Tory incumbent mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley; win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Hold Hartlepool parliamentary seat
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win absolute majority in Welsh Parliament (two short last time)
Liberal Democrats
Win at least 16 per cent of projected Britain-wide vote share
Gain more council seats than they lose
Win at least 10 per cent of constituency vote in elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly (8 per cent in both elections last time)
SNP
Win overall majority in Scottish Parliament (they need 65 of the 129 seats; they won 63 last time)
Keep Alex Salmond’s new Alba party out of the parliament completely
Greens
Win at least 8 per cent of first preference votes in the London mayoral election
Gain 100 seats in English council elections
Add to the six seats they won last time in Scotland
Plaid Cymru
Win at least 15 seats in Welsh Assembly (12 last time)
Win at least 25 per cent of the vote in either the constituency or party list vote (21 per cent in both last time)1 -
Completely agree. I've looked at this a few times and I always come back to cash is best.Jonathan said:
FWIW I buy and write it off. Probably not the cheapest, but I simply can't be arsed with leases and finance on cars and all the Delboy nonsense that goes with it.Gardenwalker said:Thanks for the achingly dull recommendations, although I accept my requirement is achingly dull.
So, do I buy or lease?0 -
I grew up in a New Town and they suffer quite badly from brain drain. There's plenty of manufacturing/factory jobs available but if you want to do anything else you need to relocate sadly as there's zero incentive to get a degree and then move back there.kle4 said:
It works as a quick fix to dump a large amount in one place and upset fewer people overall, so might be more popular than acrually better options. Just looking for something which get through the Shire objectors.Gardenwalker said:
Why?kle4 said:We need some new towns. That's definitely popular in generality and not particular though.
Generally speaking, New Towns is failed model.
There’s no space for them anyway.1 -
haha that is true but I can't imagine anyone wanting or needing anything bigger than the 5.Dura_Ace said:
X7 is the largest BMW SUV. This discussion is like watching me try to opine on wine or coffee.TOPPING said:
Seconded on a BMW X series (5 is the biggest, 3 is a smaller 5 and 1 is the SUV of the Touring). Or touring if you prefer closer to the ground and traditional rear wheel drive.Gardenwalker said:
I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.Jonathan said:
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?
But we are all skating on thin ice here once Dura comes on and spells out exactly what it is you actually do need.
I knew I was going to be in trouble the moment I responded.0 -
Not long now, and good to see there's available slots for first doses without any issues or waiting for a week.Philip_Thompson said:Just got my Covid Vaccine invitation via text! 💉😁
Will be going tomorrow morning.
38 years old, so into the thirties now.1 -
We are can't take a stance or join a lobbying campaign, but we are taking a stance....
The BBC as a corporation cannot take part in the campaign. We have special duties that don't apply to other organisations under our Royal Charter and editorial guidelines that prevent us from joining lobbying campaigns. So while we have firm policies to deal with online abuse, the corporation cannot join a lobbying campaign no matter how worthy the cause.
This does not mean that the BBC is neutral on issues such as racism or hate crime. They are abhorrent.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/56942511
I genuinely don't see what all these clubs not tweeting for a couple of days will achieve.0 -
Golly - with targets like some of those I forecast that most will be losers!NickyBreakspear said:https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-mayoral-parliamentary-scottish-welsh-elections-results-polls
Peter Kellner has summarised various targets for each party to claim success.
Conservatives
Open up a five-point lead over Labour in projected Britain-wide vote share
Re-elect Tory mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley and win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Gain Hartlepool parliamentary seat from Labour
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win at least 20 (out of 60) seats in Welsh Parliament
Gain votes in London mayoral election (having achieved 35 per cent of first-preference votes last time)
Labour
Overtake Tories in projected Britain-wide vote share
Win London mayoralty outright on first preference votes (44 per cent last time)
Defeat Tory incumbent mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley; win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Hold Hartlepool parliamentary seat
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win absolute majority in Welsh Parliament (two short last time)
Liberal Democrats
Win at least 16 per cent of projected Britain-wide vote share
Gain more council seats than they lose
Win at least 10 per cent of constituency vote in elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly (8 per cent in both elections last time)
SNP
Win overall majority in Scottish Parliament (they need 65 of the 129 seats; they won 63 last time)
Keep Alex Salmond’s new Alba party out of the parliament completely
Greens
Win at least 8 per cent of first preference votes in the London mayoral election
Gain 100 seats in English council elections
Add to the six seats they won last time in Scotland
Plaid Cymru
Win at least 15 seats in Welsh Assembly (12 last time)
Win at least 25 per cent of the vote in either the constituency or party list vote (21 per cent in both last time)6 -
There is plastic and there is plastic.we thought the I 10 was sub optimal cheap plastic ...and went for a Honda Jazz.. OK we are of a certain age and me more so than my wife but it's a good car and does 50mpg.. avoid the automatic imho.Stocky said:
I've recently bought a Hyundai i10 as a runaround and for my daughters to learn to drive in. It's perfect. It replaces a Audi A1 which I would have gone for again but for the insurance cost for learner drivers.Philip_Thompson said:
I have a lot of time for the Asian brands as a rule of thumb, they tend to have much better value for money than the British or European brands and are a very good quality. Frequently just as often made here too.Gardenwalker said:
I am not a car person; largely I regard them as frustrating opex rather than sensible capex.Jonathan said:
budget?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps PB motorists can give me advice.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?
I've not looked into new cars in a long time. My car is a Kia. It was far cheaper when I bought it than comparable cars then due to being a relatively unknown brand, but came with a seven year warranty as opposed to a three year one. I would strongly recommend them as a brand and anyone I know with a Kia has said the same, but I don't know if they're still as good value for money as they used to be.
I think they still all come now with a seven year warranty as standard which speaks to their respect in their own quality and reliability - not sure what other brands are like.
EDIT: Kia C'eed is my model, sort of an SUV but not as big as most SUVs. Would probably suit unless you want something smaller.
All cars are plasticky these days aren't they?
I'd recommend either of above two cars but maybe look at minis as well?0
