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Not a good Daily Mail front page tomorrow for the PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    you mean you have a superior morality to everyone else on the board ? Interesting.
    Obviously not, no. A silly non-sequitur. You're thrashing around.

    Anyway, thanks for the exchange. Off to play some bad golf. :smile:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    Interesting question.

    For many months now all polls have been within Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.

    I suspect that in say two months time once this has all washed out and the initial post Local bounce has faded that polls will probably still be Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.

    So yes zero, within Margin of Error. Satisfied? What do you think?
    Well as I noted previously, and despite the ERM which I understand although disagree slightly as pre the voter on the street, in 1997 everything was going swimmingly. It was the sleaze and a tired Cons administration.

    Although he tried to rebrand in 2019 (successfully imo) we will have had a Cons govt one way or another for 14 years by 2024.

    Once people forget about Covid (!) they will look for other stories and sleaze is an easy one for the papers to get behind.

    So I think the numbers might be reversed. Albeit I have absolutely no faith that SKS can regain the mantle of Opposition.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    BallotBoxScotland apply their own model:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1386953196623519744


    Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll):

    SNP 45% (-2)
    Labour 22% (+2)
    Conservatives 20% (-3)
    Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)
    Greens 4% (-)

    Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:

    SNP 36% (-)
    Conservatives 21% (-1)
    Labour 18% (+1)
    Greens 10% (+1)
    Alba 6% (-)
    Liberal Democrats 6% (-)
    All for Unity 2% (-)

    On behalf of Scot Goes Pop, the polling company Panelbase interviewed a representative sample of 1075 adults in Scotland, including 16 and 17 year olds, from 21st-26th April.

    Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)

    Pro-independence parties: 80 seats (62.0%)
    Anti-independence parties: 49 seats (38.0%)

    PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited April 2021
    malcolmg said:



    Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll):

    SNP 45% (-2)
    Labour 22% (+2)
    Conservatives 20% (-3)
    Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)
    Greens 4% (-)

    Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:

    SNP 36% (-)
    Conservatives 21% (-1)
    Labour 18% (+1)
    Greens 10% (+1)
    Alba 6% (-)
    Liberal Democrats 6% (-)
    All for Unity 2% (-)

    On behalf of Scot Goes Pop, the polling company Panelbase interviewed a representative sample of 1075 adults in Scotland, including 16 and 17 year olds, from 21st-26th April.

    Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)

    Pro-independence parties: 80 seats (62.0%)
    Anti-independence parties: 49 seats (38.0%)

    PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS

    No SNP majority as in 2011 (65 needed for that) before the legal 2014 referendum, no legal indyref2 will be allowed by the UK government, tough.

    Brexit also clearly not a material change in circumstances as there was already an SNP and Green government before Brexit so the once in a generation 2014 vote stands
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    Interesting question.

    For many months now all polls have been within Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.

    I suspect that in say two months time once this has all washed out and the initial post Local bounce has faded that polls will probably still be Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.

    So yes zero, within Margin of Error. Satisfied? What do you think?
    You don't recognise the trend shown at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678
    edited April 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Talking about zoom - does anyone still do social zooms?

    I find them the most depressing thing going.

    Yes, quite a lot of us (especially those with international friends) find they make a pleasant supplement even though we're now also meeting friends in gardens. Joint cooking in mutual homes is also a thing. I think social Zoom is dying out among those who didn't like it, and continuing for those who did. Nothing wrong with having the choice, surely?

    The use of Zoom for work of all kinds is also much more prominent as an option. I've been asked to do some quasi-medical interpretation from and to Danish in Llandudno. I quoted £935 to do it including 12 hours of travel and an overnight stay, or £125 to do it for an hour by Zoom. They've very sensibly opted for the latter, which probably wouldn't have occurred to any of us pre-pandemic.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681
    Selebian said:

    My mind is now running over possibilities for how one receives the vaccine interestingly... Delivered by dart gun? By umbrella? By pricking a finger on a spinning wheel?
    Via the horn of a charging unicorn.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402
    HYUFD said:

    Labour is not going to lose London whatever happens, indeed they are likely to make gains there in the Assembly even if they lose Hartlepool.

    Until all the council and Scotland results are in we cannot see a clear picture.

    Hartlepool to me does not tell us much, even if the Labour party vote is up there the Tories will likely still win if they squeeze the huge 25% BXP vote.

    Hartlepool is a distraction, it is the net change in council seats, in London Assembly and Scottish and Welsh Parliament seats that will really tell us what the picture is now
    Blimey, for once I actually agree with HYFUD. By elections are not predictive of a whole lot, though FWIW I think the Tories will still struggle to win Hartlepool. Even if they were to win there and win in WM, they will not win in London, and may be thumped.

    As far as Scotland is concerned, the feeling on the ground seems like the big news will be a setback for the SNP. How big a setback, I am not sure, but the tide is definately running away from them and Labour and the Lib Dems rather than the Tories will be the beneficiaries. Alba may get in, but effectively they are damaging the SNP vote, not extending it. The post election fall out amongst the Nationalists could be very bitter indeed. The Tories without Ruth are also going backwards

    So, in judging the overall national picture, the Tories will probably be able to point to WM and maybe Wales and Hartlepool and want to downplay London and Scotland. Labour will highlight London and possibly Scotland and downplay WM and possibly Hartlepool. The Lib Dems will not be massacred and could be on for a respectable result overall, but masking very poor results in Wales and parts of England with a solid performance elsewhere. Overall, my feeling is that it will be a bit curates egg for all the parties, with no real overall winner, even if the spin decides otherwise.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    HYUFD said:

    No SNP majority as in 2011 (65 needed for that) before the legal 2014 referendum, no legal indyref2 will be allowed by the UK government, tough.

    Brexit also clearly not a material change in circumstances as there was already an SNP and Green government before Brexit so the once in a generation 2014 vote stands
    Fascinating
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    edited April 2021
    O/t perhaps but I wonder if there is anything in this, from the Guardian.

    "UK to come under scrutiny in Italy’s largest mafia trial in decades
    Witnesses will be asked to respond to claims the ’Ndrangheta has laundered billions of euros in City of London."

    The report beneath suggests there could be almost as much dodgy ’Ndrangheta and Mafia money swilling about in London as Russian.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    glw said:

    Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.

    In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.

    Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
    It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    The co-leader of the Greens, Jonathan Bartley, wants us to slow down our vaccinations to help India.

    The reality is that as long we’re in lockdown, it can’t happen.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
    Someone, in the history of humanity, had to be the first to eat cooked meat, send a text message, fly a plane, travel in space, play a flute, write a poem, etc.

    How many of us were the first at any of those things? Or, indeed, anything?

    Sure, someone has to be first, but that doesn't mean it isn't vanishingly unlikely.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,633

    They don't have evidence of aliens. They have evidence of things that we can't explain. Aliens are a possible explanation, but there may be others.

    Before special relativity wobbles observed in the orbit of Mercury were thought to indicate the existence of another planet, closer to the sun. But no direct evidence of such a planet was found.

    UFOs are Unidentified Flying Objects, just as the wobbles in Mercury's orbit were Unexplained Orbital Perturbations. Get back to me when UFOs become AFOs - Alien Flying Objects.
    I keep hearing about a video from '50 feet' etc, but until I see it, I don't believe it. There are huge levels of confirmation bias going on here - those that want there to be aliens behind UFO's are being led a fine dance. I note almost all those speaking out tend to be 'ex' officials.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    tlg86 said:

    The co-leader of the Greens, Jonathan Bartley, wants us to slow down our vaccinations to help India.

    The reality is that as long we’re in lockdown, it can’t happen.

    Well, that has happened. We didn't get a delivery of 5 million AZ doses.

    And because we are grown-ups when it comes to vaccines mostly everyone shrugged because they could see it was reasonable.
  • https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1387013178270355460

    Come on Dom, release the audio, all is forgiven!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    You don't recognise the trend shown at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
    I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.

    If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.

    TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.

    image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
    Because the universe is a great deal older than our solar system, and it's very likely that planets with the capacity to host life existed long before the earth ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited April 2021

    I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.

    If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.

    TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.

    image
    42% Tories 36% Labour would be a swing of 3% from the Tories to Labour since the general election of 2019 so the Tories would likely still win narrowly a la 1992 or at least be largest party in a hung parliament but Labour would also make significant gains
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    edited April 2021
    Russian man 'trapped' on Chinese reality TV show finally voted out after three months
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/27/russian-man-trapped-chinese-reality-tv-show-voted-out-lelush-vladislav-ivanov-produce-camp
    The reality TV ordeal of a Russian who joined a Chinese boy band show by accident – and made it to the final despite urging fans to vote him off – has finally ended after nearly three months.

    Vladislav Ivanov, a 27-year-old from Vladivostok, was kicked out of the Produce Camp 2021 on Saturday after viewers ignored his pleas to leave and backed him all the way to the final.

    Ivanov, who speaks Mandarin, joined the show as a Chinese translator. But he said he was invited to sign up as a contestant after the directors noticed his good looks. “They asked if I’d like to try a new life,” Ivanov said during the show.

    He appeared to regret his decision almost immediately but could not leave without breaching his contract. His lack of enthusiasm played out in half-hearted singing, rapping and dancing alongside the other, more eager contestants.

    “Becoming a member of a boy band is not my dream as I can’t sing and dance,” Ivanov said in Chinese on the show, according to SCMP. “I hope the judges won’t support me. While the others want to get an A, I want to get an F as it stands for freedom.”

    Performing under the stage name Lelush, he urged the public to vote him out, saying he did not want to be among the 11 winners of the show, who are contractually obliged to form a boy band.

    “Don’t love me, you’ll get no results,” he said on one episode. But viewers took to his dour persona and kept him in the running for nearly three months....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Probably for the same reason no prior PM has started them.

    The media and opposition scored a real own goal getting these cancelled. Couldn't see the bigger picture, idiots. 🤦🏻‍♂️
    Idiocy is in the eye of the beholder
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.

    If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.

    TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.

    image
    That chart shows the critical interplay between the LDs and Labour and underlines the current situation where UKIP(etc) acts in the same way, but in an opposite direction for the Tories.

    The path therefore for Labour is clear. Neutralise UKIP(etc) muchas Cameron killed the LDs and revive the LDs or Greens as stopping off point for wavering Tories.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    Yes, quite a lot of us (especially those with international friends) find they make a pleasant supplement even though we're now also meeting friends in gardens. Joint cooking in mutual homes is also a thing. I think social Zoom is dying out among those who didn't like it, and continuing for those who did. Nothing wrong with having the choice, surely?

    The use of Zoom for work of all kinds is also much more prominent as an option. I've been asked to do some quasi-medical interpretation from and to Danish in Llandudno. I quoted £935 to do it including 12 hours of travel and an overnight stay, or £125 to do it for an hour by Zoom. They've very sensibly opted for the latter, which probably wouldn't have occurred to any of us pre-pandemic.
    Absolutely. Each to their own Nick. You're not a great pub goer as I remember, nor a fan of much of modern, populist society that "the young" take part in.

    So it is elegant that you should have picked up the techno-solution to socialising with such gusto.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.

    If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.

    TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.

    image
    I know we've discussed this and I get your "dead men walking" about the Cons following Black Wednesday but for me there are too many variables to attribute an election defeat to an incident, no matter how profound, that occurred five years previously.

    Of course we'll never know one way or the other.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Nigelb said:

    Because the universe is a great deal older than our solar system, and it's very likely that planets with the capacity to host life existed long before the earth ?
    Doesn't really work like that though. Older civilisations could easily have been wiped out before they reached our level of technology.

    I'm not saying it's particularly likely, but it's certainly a possible reason why we have yet to see verifiable signs of intelligent alien life.

    It's just as likely as some Star Trek style galactic rule that leaves "undeveloped civilisations" alone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    On aliens, this old blog of mine might be of interest:

    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-fermi-paradox-and-great-filter.html
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited April 2021

    It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
    The Sun is 4.5 Gyrs old. There are stars in the Galaxy that are nearly 14 Gyrs old. That is why.

    The Sun is just a teenager -- we are just a new toy in a teenager's bedroom.

    EDIT: I see @Nigelb has made the same point.

    Basically, for us to be the most advanced civilisation is special pleading. It is invoking the tooth fairy.

    The main rule of modern science is you must not invoke tooth fairies.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    I love how we've got onto Star Trek today.

    Engage.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    The Sun is 4.5 Gyrs old. There are stars in the Galaxy that are nearly 14 Gyrs old. That is why.

    The Sun is just a teenager -- we are just a new toy in a teenager's bedroom.
    So what? You don't have to patronise me. I understand physics. It is an accepted possible theory that we could be the first — the fact is that we just don't know.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    The theory is as such:

    If a civilisation was so advanced that they had discovered FTL travel, we'd know about them.

    Therefore as we don't know about them, either FTL travel is impossible, or no civilisation is that advanced.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    EDIT: I see @Nigelb has made the same point.

    Basically, for us to be the most advanced civilisation is special pleading. It is invoking the tooth fairy.

    The main rule of modern science is you must not invoke tooth fairies.

    I'm not sure you can say I'm "invoking the tooth fairy" when we've yet to discover any sign of any form of complex alien life, anywhere, never mind "intelligent" alien life.

    Everything is guess work and probabilities.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited April 2021

    So what? You don't have to patronise me. I understand physics. It is an accepted possible theory that we could be the first — the fact is that we just don't know.
    It isn't a "theory" to say we are first.

    It is like saying that we are special, we live in a special place and at a special time. That is not a theory.

    We do know that all cosmologies built on the idea that we are special have turned out to be wrong.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The theory is as such:

    If a civilisation was so advanced that they had discovered FTL travel, we'd know about them.

    Therefore as we don't know about them, either FTL travel is impossible, or no civilisation is that advanced.

    With logic being that FTL is therefore implausible.

    The idea it's plausible but we will be the first to do it seems exceedingly unlikely.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,929
    edited April 2021

    The theory is as such:

    If a civilisation was so advanced that they had discovered FTL travel, we'd know about them.

    Therefore as we don't know about them, either FTL travel is impossible, or no civilisation is that advanced.

    Perhaps there are too many corners of the universe that are more interesting than this one.

    Aliens might just not be that interested in what wallpaper our Great Leader has chosen.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    It isn't a "theory" to say we are first.

    It is like saying that we are special, we live in a special place and at a special time. That is not a theory.

    We do know that all cosmologies build on the idea that we are special have turned out to be wrong.
    Your last sentence is an irrelevance to truth. We could very well be special in this instance, we just don't know.

    Like I said, we have zero evidence of any form of complex alien life whatsoever.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,473

    I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.

    If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.

    TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.

    image
    It was 100% sleaze that wrecked the Tories in 1997 (and a charismatic Labour leader) and it had bugger all to do with Black Wednesday
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    The theory is as such:

    If a civilisation was so advanced that they had discovered FTL travel, we'd know about them.

    Therefore as we don't know about them, either FTL travel is impossible, or no civilisation is that advanced.

    But what about the prime directive? ;)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    With logic being that FTL is therefore implausible.

    The idea it's plausible but we will be the first to do it seems exceedingly unlikely.
    As far as we know, complex life itself is exceedingly unlikely, so the scale of probabilities we're talking about are tiny anyway.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Perhaps there are too many corners of the universe that are more interesting than this one.

    Aliens might just not be that interested in what wallpaper our Great Leader has chosen.
    A civilisation that had discovered FTL travel would have unlimited energy and therefore unlimited resources and unlimited growth potential. You'd be looking at exponential population growth on a galactic scale.

    It's an interesting thought exercise.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395

    As far as we know, complex life itself is exceedingly unlikely, so the scale of probabilities we're talking about are tiny anyway.
    But, across tens of billions of stars likely that it occurs in a handful of instances.

    My money is on "yes", to some extent, but so far away we'll never know.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Gate, we don't know if complex life is unlikely. Our basis of comparison is minimal.

    It might be really common.

    There might also be an inherent conflict between adaptability and inventiveness on one side, and instability and chaos on the other. Civilisations capable of making more powerful weapons may be prone to self-annihilation.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,929

    As far as we know, complex life itself is exceedingly unlikely, so the scale of probabilities we're talking about are tiny anyway.
    The Drake Equation expresses this, but it has always seemed to me that it is stating the obvious without actually solving anything.

    If there's more intelligent life out there, there's almost certainly lots of it, and thus we aren't very interesting.

    If there isn't, then, well, there isn't...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    NEW: No10 refuses three times to deny Boris Johnson said “let it rip” over coronavirus. Instead the PM’s spokesman says: “The reports put forward, the speculation, they distort the actions that the PM has taken.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Mr. Gate, we don't know if complex life is unlikely. Our basis of comparison is minimal.

    It might be really common.

    There might also be an inherent conflict between adaptability and inventiveness on one side, and instability and chaos on the other. Civilisations capable of making more powerful weapons may be prone to self-annihilation.

    But that's all I'm saying. We don't know.

    Life may be common and may be really uncommon.

    If it is really uncommon, it's possible that we are most advanced civilisation in the universe. It's not a totally ridiculous assertion.

    We may never know...
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    I'm not sure you can say I'm "invoking the tooth fairy" when we've yet to discover any sign of any form of complex alien life, anywhere, never mind "intelligent" alien life.

    Everything is guess work and probabilities.
    Judging recent events there is little or no intelligent life on Earth. Why we should assume it exists elsewhere is beyond me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,195
    TOPPING said:

    Talking about zoom - does anyone still do social zooms?

    I find them the most depressing thing going.

    I did one for 2 hours last night. Also a birthday party on Saturday for a couple of hours. They were fine but I am a bit zoomed out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited April 2021
    HYUFD said:

    No SNP majority as in 2011 (65 needed for that) before the legal 2014 referendum, no legal indyref2 will be allowed by the UK government, tough.

    Brexit also clearly not a material change in circumstances as there was already an SNP and Green government before Brexit so the once in a generation 2014 vote stands
    I see your knowledge of Scotland and her people are on the ball as usual.

    The SNP won a majority in 2011.
  • We know aliens exist.

    George Galloway has to always wear that fucking hat to hide his antennae.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    We know aliens exist.

    George Galloway has to always wear that fucking hat to hide his antennae.

    I thought we were talking about intelligent life?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    F1: oh, good. The first f1 sprint race will be at Silverstone.

    https://twitter.com/adamcooperF1/status/1386989411028635648
  • RobD said:

    But what about the prime directive? ;)
    John Redwood has said his fellow Vulcans shouldn't out themselves, just yet.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Gate, I refuse to believe that the most advanced civilisation in the universe came within a few thousand votes of having Jeremy Corbyn lead a major part of it.
  • NEW THREAD

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Cicero said:

    Blimey, for once I actually agree with HYFUD. By elections are not predictive of a whole lot, though FWIW I think the Tories will still struggle to win Hartlepool. Even if they were to win there and win in WM, they will not win in London, and may be thumped.

    As far as Scotland is concerned, the feeling on the ground seems like the big news will be a setback for the SNP. How big a setback, I am not sure, but the tide is definately running away from them and Labour and the Lib Dems rather than the Tories will be the beneficiaries. Alba may get in, but effectively they are damaging the SNP vote, not extending it. The post election fall out amongst the Nationalists could be very bitter indeed. The Tories without Ruth are also going backwards

    So, in judging the overall national picture, the Tories will probably be able to point to WM and maybe Wales and Hartlepool and want to downplay London and Scotland. Labour will highlight London and possibly Scotland and downplay WM and possibly Hartlepool. The Lib Dems will not be massacred and could be on for a respectable result overall, but masking very poor results in Wales and parts of England with a solid performance elsewhere. Overall, my feeling is that it will be a bit curates egg for all the parties, with no real overall winner, even if the spin decides otherwise.
    How does ALBA hurt SNP, they are only on the list and SNP get almost no seats on List, any seats ALBA get will be from unionists. You do not seem to understand how it works at Holyrood and it will in fact strengthen independence parties a lot.
    Once court cases are over it is likely Sturgeon will be gone and even if not her feet will be held to the fire by Alba and she will possibly lose many to them if she continues as previously.
    Looking like a really good election for independence supporters , which to cover the continuing ignorance on here, does not mean SNP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    The Sun is 4.5 Gyrs old. There are stars in the Galaxy that are nearly 14 Gyrs old. That is why.

    The Sun is just a teenager -- we are just a new toy in a teenager's bedroom.

    EDIT: I see @Nigelb has made the same point.

    Basically, for us to be the most advanced civilisation is special pleading. It is invoking the tooth fairy.

    The main rule of modern science is you must not invoke tooth fairies.
    Though, of course, stars have to be born and die before life is possible.
    There's a better case for us to be the only civilisation than there is for us to be the most advanced one.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,473

    NEW: No10 refuses three times to deny Boris Johnson said “let it rip” over coronavirus. Instead the PM’s spokesman says: “The reports put forward, the speculation, they distort the actions that the PM has taken.

    That's three admissions three denials. About par for the course.
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