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A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority – politicalbettin

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 4 in General
A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority – politicalbetting.com

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    edited April 4
    First like Attlee.
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    edited April 4
    I've now realised who Keir Starmer reminds me of more than anyone ... Walter Mondale. Worthy but dour. Boris Johnson reminds me somewhat of Ronald Reagan.

    I fear the result might be similar.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election

    Exactly 35 months from now we will be reading our Sunday newspapers about who has won the UK General Election (unless the tories repeal the FPA and call it sooner). 35 months. Do you really think the global covid pandemic will have entirely disappeared by then? I increasingly don't.

    If the vaccine rollout works and Britain is moving again, albeit under traffic lights and passports, then Johnson will take much of the credit, whether that's entirely justified or not.

    Much as it pains some of us, I don't think we should rule out a Boris Johnson landslide.
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    edited April 4
    It's the 'Reagan Democrats' that makes me think of the comparison. The 'Red Wall tories'. Jimmy Carter also thought Reagan, like Boris, was something of a joke, or a buffoon in Alan Duncan's jealous word.

    If you can reach across the political divide, as Boris Johnson also successfully did by winning Labour London for the tories, then you are a dangerous and formidable politician.

    We underestimate Boris at our peril.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna5151912
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    I've only just caught up with the national opinion polls from this past week.

    Jeez. 3 polls putting the tories 8% ahead of Labour and one putting them 10% ahead.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    I think if I were a Tory backbencher I’d be submitting a letter to Brady this morning. They need to put a stop to this vaccine passport nonsense.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    tlg86 said:

    I think if I were a Tory backbencher I’d be submitting a letter to Brady this morning. They need to put a stop to this vaccine passport nonsense.

    With at least 62% public support not a chance.

    Yep it's a mild infringement of liberty but on the grand scale, set against the pandemic? They will mean we return to a new normality.

    You'll have to suck it up I'm afraid.
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.
    Boris ... is also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Indeed. It's got to be THE hallmark of a successful politician hasn't it?

    Thatcher until the poll tax did it with her right to buy: she totally got aspiration

    Blair until Iraq did it brilliantly for the same reason: aspiration all wrapped up in Cool Britannia

    Boris did it with Brexit Britain

    All 3 won support across the political divide. Thatcher won huge working class support (at the beginning). Blair won huge middle class support. And Boris won huge red wall Labour Brexit support.

    All 3 are political giants whatever Alan Duncan might like to think.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    Morning all, and Happy Easter!

    Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair, 124 gains seem a long way off, especially as a significant number of them need to be in Scotland.
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    My brother, otherwise very critical of the infringement on civil liberties and generally anti-Boris, just wrote this to me:

    'vaccine passports will be the way ahead.'

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,369
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Light, Boris Johnson is a charismatic chap and a great campaigner. He's also a self-absorbed incompetent.

    Also, 'vaccine passport' is a misleading term. You don't need a passport to go to a shop. It's for international travel.
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    No they'll also be used for events and some venues
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.
    Boris ... is also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Indeed. It's got to be THE hallmark of a successful politician hasn't it?

    Thatcher until the poll tax did it with her right to buy: she totally got aspiration

    Blair until Iraq did it brilliantly for the same reason: aspiration all wrapped up in Cool Britannia

    Boris did it with Brexit Britain

    All 3 won support across the political divide. Thatcher won huge working class support (at the beginning). Blair won huge middle class support. And Boris won huge red wall Labour Brexit support.

    All 3 are political giants whatever Alan Duncan might like to think.
    No, Johnson will not be remembered well. Both Thatcher and Blair had an ideology and vision for the country. Johnson is a populist, without real direction. He doesn't know himself if he wants protectionism or free trade. He does steal policies shamelessly from Labour, but that isn't a great plan.

    The problem for the Tories will be when the money runs out, and spending like He does it will soon enough. Then he will be faced by either harsh austerity or major tax rises. The first won't play well in the Purple Wall, the second with his own party. Indeed I think the lack of any fiscal conservatism is what will be his downfall.

    Will this happen before the next GE or after? It wouldn't surprise me if he could scrape another majority but it won't be a landslide, and Starmer may well manage to get a hung Parliament. I am no Starmer fan, and think he should go next year, but I do think he has the skillset to manage a coalition skillfully.

  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.

    Which is all that now matters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    My brother, otherwise very critical of the infringement on civil liberties and generally anti-Boris, just wrote this to me:

    'vaccine passports will be the way ahead.'

    No, they are a daft idea, and along with the overspending will piss off his core constituency.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,372
    Labour face the dilemma that the more it looks like a rainbow alliance outcome the more the Tory vote will consolidate to avert it, especially with what he would have to concede to the SNP
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.

    Which is all that now matters.

    Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.

    I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    edited April 4
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all, and Happy Easter!

    Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair, 124 gains seem a long way off, especially as a significant number of them need to be in Scotland.

    I think I’m right in saying that since Attlee’s unusual result in 1945, only one Leader of the Opposition has won that many seats in one go - Blair in 1997, who gained 145 seats on notional boundaries.

    So Starmer needs a Blair-style result just to get a fairly small majority.

    Not impossible if @Foxy is right about the options, but a big old ask.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827
    There’s a deep structural problem for Labour. Even in 2010 when they had the Red Wall intact and amid Clegg mania, Cameron held a handy 38 seat majority across England & Wales. Heck, even Howard had a higher vote share in England than Blair, once Iraq had rubbed off his sheen.

    Take away the comfort blanket of Scotland and the red king is wearing no clothes. And by 2019 even the Red Wall had realised it.

    Without a total reinvention of what the Labour Party is for, the best they can ever hope for is a fragile coalition with nationalists, which would likely only serve to make them permanently unelectable.

    Little of this is particularly Starmer’s fault, though arguably it was he as the face of Labour’s Brexit policy that lost the Red Wall. But he’s clearly not the solution. It’s not obvious if anyone in the current parliamentary party is either.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    algarkirk said:

    Labour face the dilemma that the more it looks like a rainbow alliance outcome the more the Tory vote will consolidate to avert it, especially with what he would have to concede to the SNP

    Labour’s best hope of a revival - an SNP civil war?

    Well, that doesn’t look too likely at the moment, of course...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    Looking at last nights Scots poll and the most recent Welsh poll Starmer may be in for a very difficult May even before the England and Hartlepool results

    London may be his only success
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    edited April 4

    My brother, otherwise very critical of the infringement on civil liberties and generally anti-Boris, just wrote this to me:

    'vaccine passports will be the way ahead.'

    Here’s an article that he may find useful...
    https://twitter.com/_whitneywebb/status/1378334506093051904

    The effort to manufacture consent for an all-encompassing digital identification system is notable given that its main selling point thus far has been coercion. We have been told that without such a system we will never be able to return to work or school, never be able to travel, or never be allowed to participate normally in the economy. While this system is being introduced in this way, it is essential to point out that coercion is a built-in part of this infrastructure and, if implemented, will be used to modify human behavior to great effect, reaching far beyond just the issue of COVID-19 vaccines.
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    edited April 4
    A good example of Boris' competence: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9433921/PMs-efficiency-drive-Oxford-vaccine-factory-pays-site-make-extra-5m-jabs-year.html

    I'm no fan of Boris Johnson. Or, rather, I wasn't until about 6 months ago. He's doing brilliantly on vaccination and I'm chilled about vaccine passports.

    Like most people, I get it that they're necessary for the unlock. An intellectual debate about civil liberties is, on this particular issue, a bit arcane.

    Great to see that the FA Cup semis and League Cup final will have some fans back. So cool.

    Have a good day everyone.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 891

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    edited April 4

    Looking at last nights Scots poll and the most recent Welsh poll Starmer may be in for a very difficult May even before the England and Hartlepool results

    London may be his only success

    Labour going backwards in Wales is probably already baked in. Similarly Scotland isn’t where the action is for Labour (even though it needs to be).

    I think the actual tests are the local elections. Bear in mind, these were last contested when Theresa May was riding at 50% in the polls and before the realities of Brexit, Covid etc hit. Moreover, they were before the full extent of local government’s financial problems were revealed, many of them caused by poor management from Tory cabinets and others caused by austerity in the centre. So there should be plenty of low-hanging fruit for Labour.

    If Starmer cannot make real progress in these, and especially in those areas he needs to win back - e.g. the Midlands - that is a very bad sign for him.

    Mind you, I wonder how many people even realise there are local elections happening. I’ve had nothing at all for Staffordshire. I didn’t even realise until yesterday it was one of the authorities with local elections.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,372
    The Guardian on SKS last night, essentially doing a press release for them, is sounding perilous close to the language of 'relaunch'. When you reach that point the Titanic comes to mind, and a vision of IDS.

    They won't, but what if they lost Hartlepool? It might be keeping them awake.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    ydoethur said:

    And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.

    Which is all that now matters.

    Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.

    I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
    But if what comes out of Covid is "Government by Task Force"?

    Imagine the vaccine level of achievement across each Department....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    ydoethur said:

    And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.

    Which is all that now matters.

    Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.

    I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
    But if what comes out of Covid is "Government by Task Force"?

    Imagine the vaccine level of achievement across each Department....
    Well, bluntly, it is hard to imagine an Education Task Force could possibly be worse than the current Department for Education. The latter are so thick they literally can’t count up to 18.

    But I would want to know how and whom they reported to, and for how long, before hailing it as a great breakthrough.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    algarkirk said:

    The Guardian on SKS last night, essentially doing a press release for them, is sounding perilous close to the language of 'relaunch'. When you reach that point the Titanic comes to mind, and a vision of IDS.

    They won't, but what if they lost Hartlepool? It might be keeping them awake.

    The problem for Starmer’s critics within Labour is there is no obviously better candidate. Which was not the case for say, IDS. Nandy and Rayner are about their only realistic alternatives and I don’t think either would be making more headway. As for the Left, they are so bereft of leadership it’s actually slightly embarrassing.

    Starmer’s job - indeed the job of whoever is leader now - is to restore some sanity and order to Labour after Corbyn’s catastrophic mistakes. He’s making progress on that. How much progress, we’re about to find out. Taking the next step and winning a general election is a very tough ask given where he starts from.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    A good example of Boris' competence: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9433921/PMs-efficiency-drive-Oxford-vaccine-factory-pays-site-make-extra-5m-jabs-year.html

    I'm no fan of Boris Johnson. Or, rather, I wasn't until about 6 months ago. He's doing brilliantly on vaccination and I'm chilled about vaccine passports.

    Like most people, I get it that they're necessary for the unlock. An intellectual debate about civil liberties is, on this particular issue, a bit arcane.

    Great to see that the FA Cup semis and League Cup final will have some fans back. So cool.

    Have a good day everyone.

    But they’re not...

    We’re already unlocking, without vaccine passports, and positive tests, hospitalisations, and deaths are plunging through the floor.

    They are solving a problem that doesn’t exist.
    And by the time vaccine passports would make sense, nearly everyone will be vaccinated anyway.

    It’s a real unforced error.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    ydoethur said:

    And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.

    Which is all that now matters.

    Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.

    I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
    But if what comes out of Covid is "Government by Task Force"?

    Imagine the vaccine level of achievement across each Department....
    It is not a transferable solution. It is not an approach that works for social care for example, or that can fix the appalling educational achievements along the Purple Wall.

    The thing is that sooner or later Johnson will have to do unpopular stuff to rein in the massive deficit.

    Similarly, vaccine passports for events are going to be popular until people have to use them, then they will be as popular as the poll tax, at first ignored, then despised.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    That’s always been true. Look at Derby and Disraeli, bringing down the Russell government of 1866 because its parliamentary reform bill was too radical, then a year later bringing in a much more radical one themselves.

    Although that’s why they’ve survived the last 300 years and the Whigs/Liberals haven’t.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769

    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
    Which shows how screwed up politics is. Boris is many things, but truth teller is not one of them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    Yes. A split on the right is very possible. The combination of freespending on special interest groups, bungs to mates and a bit of performative flagwaving works electorally, at least for a while, but not economically. It is Peronism.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    That’s always been true. Look at Derby and Disraeli, bringing down the Russell government of 1866 because its parliamentary reform bill was too radical, then a year later bringing in a much more radical one themselves.

    Although that’s why they’ve survived the last 300 years and the Whigs/Liberals haven’t.
    Power for powers sake and the opportunity to make a fast buck off the back of it, little more.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    That’s always been true. Look at Derby and Disraeli, bringing down the Russell government of 1866 because its parliamentary reform bill was too radical, then a year later bringing in a much more radical one themselves.

    Although that’s why they’ve survived the last 300 years and the Whigs/Liberals haven’t.
    Power for powers sake and the opportunity to make a fast buck off the back of it, little more.
    Put that way, you make them sound like Hugo Chavez.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    Jonathan said:

    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
    Which shows how screwed up politics is. Boris is many things, but truth teller is not one of them.
    Seems neither is Starmer in the publics view
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    That’s always been true. Look at Derby and Disraeli, bringing down the Russell government of 1866 because its parliamentary reform bill was too radical, then a year later bringing in a much more radical one themselves.

    Although that’s why they’ve survived the last 300 years and the Whigs/Liberals haven’t.
    Power for powers sake and the opportunity to make a fast buck off the back of it, little more.
    Put that way, you make them sound like Hugo Chavez.
    Well quite. No doubt they would share his policies if there was a few quid in it for some donor.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    edited April 4

    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
    I think that both are liars. Johnson is more barefaced, but Starmer is too. The problem of his "fun with flags" initiative is that it screams inauthenticity, not just personally but across the party.

    Starmer needs the self confidence to be himself, to expound a different vision of Britishness, perhaps starting with the right to peaceful protest and the right to not carry an internal passport.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769

    Jonathan said:

    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
    Which shows how screwed up politics is. Boris is many things, but truth teller is not one of them.
    Seems neither is Starmer in the publics view
    Starmer is reforming his party and losing a few friends in the process. Boris, we’ll just does his own thing and Tories are currently going along for the ride.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    tlg86 said:

    I think if I were a Tory backbencher I’d be submitting a letter to Brady this morning. They need to put a stop to this vaccine passport nonsense.

    With at least 62% public support not a chance.

    Yep it's a mild infringement of liberty but on the grand scale, set against the pandemic? They will mean we return to a new normality.

    You'll have to suck it up I'm afraid.
    The polling on this is bullshit, same as lockdown. People want it for everyone else, not themselves.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think if I were a Tory backbencher I’d be submitting a letter to Brady this morning. They need to put a stop to this vaccine passport nonsense.

    With at least 62% public support not a chance.

    Yep it's a mild infringement of liberty but on the grand scale, set against the pandemic? They will mean we return to a new normality.

    You'll have to suck it up I'm afraid.
    The polling on this is bullshit, same as lockdown. People want it for everyone else, not themselves.
    I think the one domestic venue where they might make some sense is nightclubs. Apart from anything else, on current policy it’s evidence you’re over 18.

    But it’s hardly worth rolling them out for one fairly minor type of venue which won’t be reopening until everywhere else is anyway.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    I wonder if the Sturgeonistas muttering darkly “no smoke without fire” over Salmond will be advancing the same argument now?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a0452af4-94ce-11eb-8d6e-90b9b6b1f793?shareToken=7560e0ba15bbc55d12e2318b699a6422
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    edited April 4
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    Yes. A split on the right is very possible. The combination of freespending on special interest groups, bungs to mates and a bit of performative flagwaving works electorally, at least for a while, but not economically. It is Peronism.
    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,225
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    Yes. A split on the right is very possible. The combination of freespending on special interest groups, bungs to mates and a bit of performative flagwaving works electorally, at least for a while, but not economically. It is Peronism.
    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.
    Morning all. Good trip to family yesterday. Loys of discussion about Grandson 2's plans for Uni.
    Notable lack of EU registered lorries around the Dartford Crossing.

    On topic, surely there's more likely to be a palace revolt than a split?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827
    edited April 4
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    Yes. A split on the right is very possible. The combination of freespending on special interest groups, bungs to mates and a bit of performative flagwaving works electorally, at least for a while, but not economically. It is Peronism.
    While not entirely a phenomenon of the Right, the closest we’ve come in British politics to a split in 30 years is Ukip/BPE. And we saw how ruthlessly the Tory party eventually dealt with that threat, by becoming the party of Brexit.

    Corbynism tested to destruction the idea we could have a successful split in one of the old parties, rather than a single issue insurgent party forcing their agenda.

    If there is to be a substantial split in the Tory vote on traditional fiscal prudence, it would most obviously have to migrate to the Labour Party rather than some jumped up Philip Hammond vehicle or something.

    But there’s a lot of brand damage still there from Corbynism, and even from “there’s no money left”. In my view how you get to a Labour majority, is with a well marketed, common sense and proud defence of inclusive British values, including fiscal frugality, while of course keeping hold of the environmental / NHS coalition.

    Starmer’s obviously not the salesperson for that pitch. It’s one more Tory majority and perhaps that salesperson will then emerge. But perhaps still they will not, there’s really no guarantee of it. After all, where is the future Blair figure in a job such as Shadow Education waiting for the next election defeat?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,498
    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.

    They had a split 2 years ago.

    All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    edited April 4
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.

    They had a split 2 years ago.

    All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
    But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.

    Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Foxy said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.
    Boris ... is also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Indeed. It's got to be THE hallmark of a successful politician hasn't it?

    Thatcher until the poll tax did it with her right to buy: she totally got aspiration

    Blair until Iraq did it brilliantly for the same reason: aspiration all wrapped up in Cool Britannia

    Boris did it with Brexit Britain

    All 3 won support across the political divide. Thatcher won huge working class support (at the beginning). Blair won huge middle class support. And Boris won huge red wall Labour Brexit support.

    All 3 are political giants whatever Alan Duncan might like to think.
    No, Johnson will not be remembered well. Both Thatcher and Blair had an ideology and vision for the country. Johnson is a populist, without real direction. He doesn't know himself if he wants protectionism or free trade. He does steal policies shamelessly from Labour, but that isn't a great plan.

    The problem for the Tories will be when the money runs out, and spending like He does it will soon enough. Then he will be faced by either harsh austerity or major tax rises. The first won't play well in the Purple Wall, the second with his own party. Indeed I think the lack of any fiscal conservatism is what will be his downfall.

    Will this happen before the next GE or after? It wouldn't surprise me if he could scrape another majority but it won't be a landslide, and Starmer may well manage to get a hung Parliament. I am no Starmer fan, and think he should go next year, but I do think he has the skillset to manage a coalition skillfully.

    In a way he's lucky to have had the pandemic; while it has exposed already-known weaknesses (which more lately he has learned to compensate for by leaving stuff to people with more competence) it has avoided exposing his biggest weakness, which as you say is his complete lack of political aspiration for what he wants to make of the job, aside from sitting in the chair.

    After what we have been through, people will be expecting change (which he knows, hence build back better), and the key test will be whether he manages to deliver anything significant. Pouring zillions into a few vanity projects and continuing to look out for the next younger woman won't cut it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    Jonathan said:

    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
    Which shows how screwed up politics is. Boris is many things, but truth teller is not one of them.
    Anyone think Starmer was a vessel of truth and enlightenment when for three years he sat in the Shadow Cabinet of a party with huge antisemitic issues at its core, yet saw nothing in those three years that led a former DPP - a former DPP - to ask questions, let alone resign?

    Turning a blind eye to antisemitism for years is as bad as anything on the charge sheet against Boris.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,225
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.

    They had a split 2 years ago.

    All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
    But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.

    Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
    No they didn't form a separate party; they went off and got themselves good jobs with their friends in the City.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,095
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    A Tory Government is Best for Britain. Regardless of what the policies are or even if the policies are the direct opposite of what they believe in. Huzzah!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    ydoethur said:

    And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.

    Which is all that now matters.

    Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.

    I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
    You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827
    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
    Which shows how screwed up politics is. Boris is many things, but truth teller is not one of them.
    Seems neither is Starmer in the publics view
    Starmer is reforming his party and losing a few friends in the process. Boris, we’ll just does his own thing and Tories are currently going along for the ride.
    Sir Keir is now like a football manager who has abandoned his long term philosophy to get short term results to avoid the sack. 18 months ago he was demanding a ‘people’s vote’, now he is forcing his party to accept Brexit despite half its members wanting to rejoin the EU; he is wrapping himself in union jacks despite being a republican & calling for tough policing despite taking the knee for an organisation that wants to defund them.

    All smacks of desperation, as does this ‘relaunch’ and getting Mandelson to hold his hand
    This is the problem isn’t it. He’s smart enough to know what needs to be done, or at least smart enough to listen to those that do. But he’s not the one to do it and knows it. This is the reason why his figures on truth telling are poor. People see through it.

    The real question is whether he’s the best bag holder until the next Parliament or there’s someone else who might lose less badly and prepare the wicket to make 2028(ish) Labour majority territory. I don’t know the answer to that, no doubt the likes of Mandy are trying to figure it out.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524
    edited April 4
    moonshine said:

    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
    Which shows how screwed up politics is. Boris is many things, but truth teller is not one of them.
    Seems neither is Starmer in the publics view
    Starmer is reforming his party and losing a few friends in the process. Boris, we’ll just does his own thing and Tories are currently going along for the ride.
    Sir Keir is now like a football manager who has abandoned his long term philosophy to get short term results to avoid the sack. 18 months ago he was demanding a ‘people’s vote’, now he is forcing his party to accept Brexit despite half its members wanting to rejoin the EU; he is wrapping himself in union jacks despite being a republican & calling for tough policing despite taking the knee for an organisation that wants to defund them.

    All smacks of desperation, as does this ‘relaunch’ and getting Mandelson to hold his hand
    This is the problem isn’t it. He’s smart enough to know what needs to be done, or at least smart enough to listen to those that do. But he’s not the one to do it and knows it. This is the reason why his figures on truth telling are poor. People see through it.

    The real question is whether he’s the best bag holder until the next Parliament or there’s someone else who might lose less badly and prepare the wicket to make 2028(ish) Labour majority territory. I don’t know the answer to that, no doubt the likes of Mandy are trying to figure it out.
    The most likely path to victory for Sir Keir in my eyes is a problem arising with the vaccine. Unlike a financial crisis, people can’t even secretly hope for that
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    The art of political analysis and the art of great betting is not

    A good example of Boris' competence: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9433921/PMs-efficiency-drive-Oxford-vaccine-factory-pays-site-make-extra-5m-jabs-year.html

    I'm no fan of Boris Johnson. Or, rather, I wasn't until about 6 months ago. He's doing brilliantly on vaccination and I'm chilled about vaccine passports.

    Like most people, I get it that they're necessary for the unlock. An intellectual debate about civil liberties is, on this particular issue, a bit arcane.

    Great to see that the FA Cup semis and League Cup final will have some fans back. So cool.

    Have a good day everyone.

    But they’re not...

    We’re already unlocking, without vaccine passports, and positive tests, hospitalisations, and deaths are plunging through the floor.

    They are solving a problem that doesn’t exist.
    Not true I'm afraid.

    We have yet to have gatherings of people in numbers larger than six, let alone significant crowd events.

    Vaccine passports will be used.

    Come back here in six months and they will be accepted as normal and all the fuss will have been seen to have been for nothing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,225
    edited April 4

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    A Tory Government is Best for Britain. Regardless of what the policies are or even if the policies are the direct opposite of what they believe in. Huzzah!
    That's what the Tory Party is for; power and profit for our friends.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all, and Happy Easter!

    Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair, 124 gains seem a long way off, especially as a significant number of them need to be in Scotland.

    And for that, we should all be grateful.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827
    isam said:

    moonshine said:

    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
    Which shows how screwed up politics is. Boris is many things, but truth teller is not one of them.
    Seems neither is Starmer in the publics view
    Starmer is reforming his party and losing a few friends in the process. Boris, we’ll just does his own thing and Tories are currently going along for the ride.
    Sir Keir is now like a football manager who has abandoned his long term philosophy to get short term results to avoid the sack. 18 months ago he was demanding a ‘people’s vote’, now he is forcing his party to accept Brexit despite half its members wanting to rejoin the EU; he is wrapping himself in union jacks despite being a republican & calling for tough policing despite taking the knee for an organisation that wants to defund them.

    All smacks of desperation, as does this ‘relaunch’ and getting Mandelson to hold his hand
    This is the problem isn’t it. He’s smart enough to know what needs to be done, or at least smart enough to listen to those that do. But he’s not the one to do it and knows it. This is the reason why his figures on truth telling are poor. People see through it.

    The real question is whether he’s the best bag holder until the next Parliament or there’s someone else who might lose less badly and prepare the wicket to make 2028(ish) Labour majority territory. I don’t know the answer to that, no doubt the likes of Mandy are trying to figure it out.
    The most likely path to victory for Sir Keir in my eyes is a problem arising with the vaccine. Unlike a financial crisis, people can’t even secretly hope for that
    That’s an extreme black swan. Would Starmer be the one to pick up the pieces in a Children of Men scenario? I doubt it. The next election won’t be fought on covid-19. I don’t know what it will be yet but it won’t be that.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    Wouldn’t bother me that much if he did become PM, other than the fact I’d had been proven completely wrong on something I have a strong opinion on. I just don’t think he has much chance of doing it
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,605
    In 2024 Covid will no longer be an issue (the world will be awash with vaccines in a few months’ time), but paying for it certainly will. Looks like NOM is the most likely outcome of the election from here, all other things being equal, which of course they won’t be.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    Try reading the header before writing rubbish.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.

    They had a split 2 years ago.

    All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
    But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.

    Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
    No, I wouldn't expect a formal split in the Tory party, but that it is likely that Johnsons end (and all political careers end in failure) will come from losing popularity internally.

    The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,605
    Btw, have we heard from Edmund in Tokyo recently? Hope he’s just taking a break after the US elections, and will be back soon.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    Centuries of history doing just that and you finally caught on.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    DavidL said:

    Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.

    So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.

    Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.

    I am pragmatic. I dislike Boris but I shall look forward to Boris winning again if only to enjoy the gnashing if teeth and venting of spleens that will follow it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    A Tory Government is Best for Britain. Regardless of what the policies are or even if the policies are the direct opposite of what they believe in. Huzzah!
    That's what the Tory Party is for; power and profit for our friends.
    You won't find nepotism and pocket-lining amongst the ranks of the comrades in the Labour Party. Squeaky clean, eh Liverpool....?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,225

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    A Tory Government is Best for Britain. Regardless of what the policies are or even if the policies are the direct opposite of what they believe in. Huzzah!
    That's what the Tory Party is for; power and profit for our friends.
    You won't find nepotism and pocket-lining amongst the ranks of the comrades in the Labour Party. Squeaky clean, eh Liverpool....?
    Well, of course. One case and it's 'point, but'.......

    Helping our friends to the detriment of others is, of course a human characteristic. Not necessarily one of the more desirable ones.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    Foxy said:

    ClippP said:

    Labour is doomed to be HM Official Opposition - until something better comes along.

    I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.

    Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.

    But if Johnson goes to the limit in stealing Labour's policies, then there is nothing to distinguish between Labour and the Conservatives - except personal qualities like integrity, honesty, decency, competence, and on those the Johnson Conservatives are clear losers.
    The recent poll had Starmer behind Boris in telling the truth
    I think that both are liars. Johnson is more barefaced, but Starmer is too. The problem of his "fun with flags" initiative is that it screams inauthenticity, not just personally but across the party.

    Starmer needs the self confidence to be himself, to expound a different vision of Britishness, perhaps starting with the right to peaceful protest and the right to not carry an internal passport.
    I said as much yesterday - you can see it in his anguished look in most of the pictures - he hates Brexit/the Flag/Tory scum/The Police/Colonial statues he's for the EU/Meghan and Harry/Wokeness/Public ownership/Colonial reparations .......

    His opponents know, it his supporters know it, more and more of the public know it - but he's shit scared to tell the truth in case he does even worse that Corbyn who, let's not forget, he loyally served despite the anti-semitism, etc, etc
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,269
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.

    They had a split 2 years ago.

    All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
    But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.

    Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
    No, I wouldn't expect a formal split in the Tory party, but that it is likely that Johnsons end (and all political careers end in failure) will come from losing popularity internally.

    The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
    Immediately followed by another CON election win?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,369
    Just finished Assassin's Fate, by Robin Hobb. Shan't spoil it (it's the third book in a third connected trilogy), but it's really very good.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.

    They had a split 2 years ago.

    All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
    I wasn't
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044
    edited April 4

    ydoethur said:

    And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.

    Which is all that now matters.

    Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.

    I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
    But if what comes out of Covid is "Government by Task Force"?

    Imagine the vaccine level of achievement across each Department....
    I imagine, except in very limited cases, it would be something of a disaster.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    A Tory Government is Best for Britain. Regardless of what the policies are or even if the policies are the direct opposite of what they believe in. Huzzah!
    There. Was that so hard?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,984
    edited April 4
    DavidL said:

    Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.

    So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.

    Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.

    That's an unnecessarily long way of saying you admire his indefatigability.

    As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,984
    Oh and as for SKS he gave up his right to challenge when he began to and subsequently continued to support every damn policy the government put forward.
  • I'd vote for any party that had Bez as leader. Starmer needs to get his marracas out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/apr/03/fit-in-my-40s-twistin-my-melon-with-bez
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.

    They had a split 2 years ago.

    All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
    But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.

    Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
    No, I wouldn't expect a formal split in the Tory party, but that it is likely that Johnsons end (and all political careers end in failure) will come from losing popularity internally.

    The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
    Immediately followed by another CON election win?
    Yes, then a landslide Labour one.

    Starmer is a Kinnock/Smith fellow, not a Blair.

    To put a seasonal twist on it, he is John the Baptist, not the Messiah.

    Off to work for me though...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035
    edited April 4
    On topic, I've never thought the concept of "net gains" as a measure of the challenge an opposition faces is very useful.

    Starmer will struggle at the next election, but because he's mediocre and uninspiring, except to soft LibDems, not because Corbyn did terribly five years before.

    Labour may struggle too, but because it hasn't found a convincing message where there is no money for its public sector client base, rather than because last time the red wall wanted Brexit.

    One thing it does do, though, is affect party morale going into the contest.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    Perspective on that SNP "fraud" (sic) story:

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1378610560485429250?s=20

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1378611514236669952?s=20

    Though although some SNP SIndy supporters might feel aggrieved and misled, far from clear that any law has been broken, despite what the Vicar of Bath may wish.....
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.

    So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.

    Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.

    That's an unnecessarily long way of saying you admire his indefatigability.

    As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.
    I like the honesty of your last sentence - it is probably true and then of course he will swiftly be replaced. The sadness is the way the left commentariat cling to the myth that the man who served so comfortably in a party led be a rabid left-winger and became mired in anti-semitism is somehow not fake when he pretends to like the Union Jack and the Police.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    I'm sure the SNP are enjoying the "throw enough mud" fest they themselves would never, ever indulge in, no siree!

    https://twitter.com/Sunday_Mail/status/1378608157413498885?s=20
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,980
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.

    So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.

    Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.

    That's an unnecessarily long way of saying you admire his indefatigability.

    As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.
    I reckon it will be in his second re-election campaign for US President, in the first he was lucky to be up against AOC and Marjorie Taylor Green from the Patriot party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.

    So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.

    Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.

    That's an unnecessarily long way of saying you admire his indefatigability.

    As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.
    LOL. Has he ever even tried to hide his fakeness? He plays with it constantly and uses it to allow people to underestimate him.

    Take a simple example, his 2 letters about Brexit one for and one against. Where do you think that story came from? It was a brilliant sleight of hand and those who loathe him cannot resist picking that scab again and again. They see insincerity and fakeness. Others see pragmatism and flexibility.


    I wish we had a PM with greater personal integrity, who was less grandiose, who seemed a bit more focused and didn't waste money on silly ideas. But we are seeing a political genius at work and all the venting in the world won't change that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,498
    TOPPING said:

    As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.

    My guess is Brexit.

    Everybody is ignoring it because Covid, but it remains a disaster.

    Supermarket shelves are full only because we have not implemented Brexit yet, but orders and deliveries for other good are delayed by weeks.

    Even John Redwood is beginning to realise he isn't getting the sunlit uplands he wanted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526

    I'd vote for any party that had Bez as leader. Starmer needs to get his marracas out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/apr/03/fit-in-my-40s-twistin-my-melon-with-bez

    Bez sat around getting high with a mate of mine at Glasto. He merrily admitted he had voted for Brexit....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,984
    edited April 4
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.

    My guess is Brexit.

    Everybody is ignoring it because Covid, but it remains a disaster.

    Supermarket shelves are full only because we have not implemented Brexit yet, but orders and deliveries for other good are delayed by weeks.

    Even John Redwood is beginning to realise he isn't getting the sunlit uplands he wanted.
    Not sure. If people think we have Brexited then he doesn't need to worry too much about John Redwood. No one has the appetite to rejoin or fight for a harder version.

    So we have BINO.

    @DavidL would cite this as evidence of his genius. Me? I'm not so sure.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    edited April 4

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam will be ROCK HARD when he reads this title. 🍆💦

    What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?

    A Tory Government is Best for Britain. Regardless of what the policies are or even if the policies are the direct opposite of what they believe in. Huzzah!
    That's what the Tory Party is for; power and profit for our friends.
    You won't find nepotism and pocket-lining amongst the ranks of the comrades in the Labour Party. Squeaky clean, eh Liverpool....?
    The Labour Party have a long history of corruption, Blair's party donations for Honours scandal, the Labour MPs expenses scandal. Labour criminality sometimes goes hand in glove with Conservative backers. Paulson, T. Dan Smith. In Red Wall circles in England, Scotland and Wales, small and large envelopes changing hands have been common knowledge from Port Talbot to Liverpool (there, it would seem both in the past and -allegedly- present).

    The charge against Johnson's Government is corruption, nepotism and patronage is rife from many quarters. Jenrick and the pornographer, Hancock and his neighbour, the fast track PPE list of Tory donors, Dido Harding's appointment, travel policy exemptions to suit Stanley Johnson. And of course Johnson's back catalogue for "spaffing" public money pre-dates his premiership. Ms. Arcuri, the Garden Bridge etc. etc

    However, at the moment the public is comfortable with £38b on test and trace, but not the alleged interests of Joe Anderson. Johnson is the "sword of truth" (we know where that led a Conservative Grandee a couple of decades ago) and Starmer (by the evidence from these polls) an alleged liar.

    Government corruption can be ignored, if the voters so wish, but when the evidence is there it shouldn't be denied, or excused because "they are all at it". It's our money, not theirs!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.

    My guess is Brexit.

    Everybody is ignoring it because Covid, but it remains a disaster.

    Supermarket shelves are full only because we have not implemented Brexit yet, but orders and deliveries for other good are delayed by weeks.

    Even John Redwood is beginning to realise he isn't getting the sunlit uplands he wanted.
    Only in your mind

    Brexit has happened and by 2024 the agenda will be very different
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.

    They had a split 2 years ago.

    All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
    I wasn't
    You became a "Bozoist".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.

    My guess is Brexit.

    Everybody is ignoring it because Covid, but it remains a disaster.

    Supermarket shelves are full only because we have not implemented Brexit yet, but orders and deliveries for other good are delayed by weeks.

    Even John Redwood is beginning to realise he isn't getting the sunlit uplands he wanted.
    Not sure. If people think we have Brexited then he doesn't need to worry too much about John Redwood. No one has the appetite to rejoin or fight for a harder version.

    So we have BINO.

    @DavidL would cite this as evidence of his genius. Me? I'm not so sure.
    What I was predicting for more than a year before it happened is that the economically trivial effects of Brexit for good or ill would be lost in the noise of current economic policy which would make far more of a difference to our performance. Of course I did not foresee that that "noise" would reach anything like the cacophony of Covid. Brexit has been relegated from small change to a rounding error.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.

    So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.

    Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.

    That's an unnecessarily long way of saying you admire his indefatigability.

    As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.
    LOL. Has he ever even tried to hide his fakeness? He plays with it constantly and uses it to allow people to underestimate him.

    Take a simple example, his 2 letters about Brexit one for and one against. Where do you think that story came from? It was a brilliant sleight of hand and those who loathe him cannot resist picking that scab again and again. They see insincerity and fakeness. Others see pragmatism and flexibility.


    I wish we had a PM with greater personal integrity, who was less grandiose, who seemed a bit more focused and didn't waste money on silly ideas. But we are seeing a political genius at work and all the venting in the world won't change that.
    As Helmut Kohl remarked "I have greatly benefited by being underestimated by others...."

    I see Hunky Dunky's diary is not being met with unalloyed praise......
This discussion has been closed.