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LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures – politicalbetting.com

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,186

    And of course as has been said public opinion will be in favour
    Sometimes the public need to be educated, not pandered too. The public have been scared witless by Govt for a year. It is disgusting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon is Nick Palmer is Tse is
    No, my position is private companies (airlines, hotels, pub chains, theatres, restaurants, whatever) should be given the choice of using Vaxports or not. That is the only fair way. Because many customers WILL want them and quite a few (like you) will not

    I'd guess most theatres and all airlines will welcome them, to rescue their collapsing industries, in the short term. Many pubs, perhaps, with a mainly younger clientele, will say No. And that is their right

    Do you object to this?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,652
    Wonder who they learned that trick off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,195
    ~ 60% of English adults will have had a vaccine soon, yet I feel like I'm nowhere near one lol
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,276

    I'm not, sadly I'm resigned to this government doing this and how they will try and justify it, I'm pointing out all the warning signs were there when they went for the Henry VIII powers during Brexit.

    As Matt Singh has pointed out during the pandemic one of the many consistent things during pandemic polling is this

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1374386230989709318
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1374386762965913609
    Take heart.

    The chances of this government coming up with a working system are tiny.

    (Besides- the time window between now and immunity by vaccination is probably even shorter than you think. We all underestimate the power of a whooshing graph.)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    alex_ said:

    Well quite. We didn't even have to wear masks outside at the height of the pandemic in January. And yet some idiots think it should be a necessary threshold to attending a bl**dy county cricket match! And, anyway, don't most people attending County matches spend most of the day eating and drinking?

    Personally i can't wear a mask and my glasses at the same time (they just steam up). So, although my eyesight isn't that bad, wearing a mask at a spectator event like cricket is completely out.

    Also, finally, under the "official" road map, isn't 21st June supposed to be the date at which ALL restrictions (including social distancing etc) are lifted? Whether that is actually sensible or not, i don't know, but given that is the road map, why are things like sporting events bending over backwards to not take the roadmap at it's word?
    Re: the last paragraph, a case of weasel words quite possibly. Here's what has been published on gov.uk about the final phase of the release from prison:

    Social contact
    By Step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June, the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact.

    Business, activities and events
    We hope to reopen remaining premises, including nightclubs, and ease the restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3. This will be subject to the results of a scientific Events Research Programme to test the outcome of certain pilot events through the spring and summer, where we will trial the use of testing and other techniques to cut the risk of infection. The same Events Research Programme will guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.


    1. "remove all legal limits on social contact" - could be interpreted as 'you can meet up with your mates, but other people in a great big crowd, or on a bus or a train, that you don't know don't count' and consequently shitty masks and distancing can still be argued to be applicable
    2. "ease the restrictions on large events and performances" - expressly doesn't say remove, which implies that they're likely already intending to keep at least some of the biosecurity apparatus in place. Then goes on to talk about the Events Research Programme, testing, other techniques, "whether all limits can be removed," etc. - basically that, again, could mean that we're stuck with evil rules everywhere, depending on what the most terrified scientists and the most authoritarian ministers want to impose
    3. In any event, the whole thing talks repeatedly about what they "hope" to do rather than what they will do, which is a generalised get out of jail free card for everything

    We may be rid of restrictions by the end of June. We might have to wait until next Spring. They might try to keep some of them in place forever. Who knows? The roadmap is essentially meaningless waffle on this point, although FWIW anybody who entirely trusts what Boris Johnson says about any subject needs their head examining, anyway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,073
    ClippP said:

    They are well trained, aren't they? And brainwashed into the bargain.
    The same grammatical mistake in all of them!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536

    Wonder who they learned that trick off.
    Yes, TUD complaining about this is ludicrous. The SNP does exactly this shit all the time. All parties do it. During Sturgeon's Salmondgate hearing about 300 identical pro-Nicola tweets went out every 10 minutes
  • Franchise cricket is one thing.

    Why the One Hundred though? It's ridiculous, just go for a T20.
    It makes working out the run rate easier for those aren't good at arithmetic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,394

    And of course as has been said public opinion will be in favour
    If they are its because they have been duped into believing it is essential to allow the opening up of public places.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,717
    Leon said:

    No, my position is private companies (airlines, hotels, pub chains, theatres, restaurants, whatever) should be given the choice of using Vaxports or not. That is the only fair way. Because many customers WILL want them and quite a few (like you) will not

    I'd guess most theatres and all airlines will welcome them, to rescue their collapsing industries, in the short term. Many pubs, perhaps, with a mainly younger clientele, will say No. And that is their right

    Do you object to this?
    I have said several times now I don't object to businesses being able to decide to ask them because then I have a choice not to use them. Which I will not and even when vaxports are gotten rid of( if ever) they will never ever get business off me again. They can choose I can choose. That is all fine.

    I am not fine if the only way to live a normal life post june is to show my papers everywhere because some idiot makes it mandatory
  • Cookie said:

    Well, that was the impression I'd got. How would you see it working?

    I suspect it will be venue and business led.

    Want to get into our shop/venue you need to show that you've been vaccinated or have a medical exemption.

    I suspect venues will want to show they are safe, people will be a slightly hesitant at the start, remember during the ending of the first lockdown the government had to bribe people to go to restaurants.

    To get the economy going there will be some support from the government to help businesses to let in only the vaccinated.

    I'm sure the incel squad, sorry Covid Research Group, will put a sunset clause on the government support of this.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,186

    Take heart.

    The chances of this government coming up with a working system are tiny.

    (Besides- the time window between now and immunity by vaccination is probably even shorter than you think. We all underestimate the power of a whooshing graph.)
    This is still my crumb of comfort. The govt wouldn't be able to do this before, say, November at the earliest. A few months to develop an app. Another month to redevelop an app after the first one fundamentally misunderstands how technology works. A couple of months in the law courts when a crowdfunded JR is brought in. A month trial somewhere (Isle of Wight maybe). By which time the pandemic is over and everyone laughs at the govt for being so stupid to not realise this in the first place.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,695

    Take heart.

    The chances of this government coming up with a working system are tiny.

    (Besides- the time window between now and immunity by vaccination is probably even shorter than you think. We all underestimate the power of a whooshing graph.)

    Yes, one way to look at it is that the government needs to be seen to be doing something while waiting for the milestones on the reopening roapmap to be reached. If we get there without any resurgence of cases, these ideas can be quietly shelved.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,652
    I am watching 1 Million years BC. I think most must have gone to see it just to wait until Raquel Welch appeared in a skimpy cavewoman outfit, as it's pretty terrible so far. Just seen a caveman escape from a vastly magnified Komodo dragon. They all communicate with 'ug ug', which whilst no doubt accurate, is going to limit the potential for repartee.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    “ The Conservatives have staged a turnaround in “Red Wall” constituencies, according to exclusive polling carried out for Channel 4 News.

    The results, by research company J.L. Partners, suggest Labour have seen a decline since November 2020, with its six point advantage turning into a four point Tory lead.

    It shows leadership has been a key driver in the turnaround in both parties’ standing.

    Sir Keir Starmer has fallen into negative territory, going from +7% to -3%.

    Boris Johnson has switched from a net positivity rating of -2% to +7%.”

    https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-poll-shows-conservative-lead-in-red-wall-seats
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,394
  • If they are its because they have been duped into believing it is essential to allow the opening up of public places.
    Throughout covid the public have shown just how risk averse they are and it remains the case even though we are being vaccinated
  • Take heart.

    The chances of this government coming up with a working system are tiny.

    (Besides- the time window between now and immunity by vaccination is probably even shorter than you think. We all underestimate the power of a whooshing graph.)
    Yup, we can relax if Dido Harding is put in charge of vaccine passports, we should have concerns if Kate Bingham is in charge of it.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Leon said:

    No, my position is private companies (airlines, hotels, pub chains, theatres, restaurants, whatever) should be given the choice of using Vaxports or not. That is the only fair way. Because many customers WILL want them and quite a few (like you) will not

    I'd guess most theatres and all airlines will welcome them, to rescue their collapsing industries, in the short term. Many pubs, perhaps, with a mainly younger clientele, will say No. And that is their right

    Do you object to this?
    I think you are wrong in thinking that customers will want them. They will be popular because people will want them for other people. The moment they accidentally leave their's at home and are denied access to Sunday lunch in a pub with their family they will kick off like nobody's business.

    Just like everyone was in favour of strict lockdowns, but most believe that the strict rules didn't really apply to them because they were responsible individuals who could be trusted to exhibit basic common sense when defying the letter of the rules.

    Vaccine passports will be popular because the Government will market them as the key to doing things that you otherwise couldn't do. Not a business option for staff who choose to implement them to make themselves attractive to customers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    Pagan2 said:

    I have said several times now I don't object to businesses being able to decide to ask them because then I have a choice not to use them. Which I will not and even when vaxports are gotten rid of( if ever) they will never ever get business off me again. They can choose I can choose. That is all fine.

    I am not fine if the only way to live a normal life post june is to show my papers everywhere because some idiot makes it mandatory
    Then you and I are agreed, and there is no cause for discord. Let the angels pluck the harps of blissful peace
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    And of course as has been said public opinion will be in favour
    So what? The public are in favour of lots of things that aren’t necessarily right. Tyranny of the majority.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,186

    I suspect it will be venue and business led.

    Want to get into our shop/venue you need to show that you've been vaccinated or have a medical exemption.

    I suspect venues will want to show they are safe, people will be a slightly hesitant at the start, remember during the ending of the first lockdown the government had to bribe people to go to restaurants.

    To get the economy going there will be some support from the government to help businesses to let in only the vaccinated.

    I'm sure the incel squad, sorry Covid Research Group, will put a sunset clause on the government support of this.
    Have you tried to book anywhere nice recently? Its almost impossible.

    The public are aching to get back to normal. Barring a few 'better stay in the jungle in case the war isn't really over' fearties, some of whom, let us remember, have barely left the house in a year, the vast majority of people cannot wait to get back to normal. It is different to last year.
  • Mortimer said:

    Sometimes the public need to be educated, not pandered too. The public have been scared witless by Govt for a year. It is disgusting.
    Just for accuracy by all four nations and the fact is Sturgeon and Drakeford want a zero covid policy
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,652
    I really hate the smell of weed. I'm not sure if this is compounded by me not being fond of flagrant low level law-breaking, or just because it does smell of actual shit.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,186

    Just for accuracy by all four nations and the fact is Sturgeon and Drakeford want a zero covid policy
    That is why I said 'Govt' - the councils have been just as complicit. Scary posters everywhere.

    It has been a poor example of statescraft from all quarters.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,717

    I suspect it will be venue and business led.

    Want to get into our shop/venue you need to show that you've been vaccinated or have a medical exemption.

    I suspect venues will want to show they are safe, people will be a slightly hesitant at the start, remember during the ending of the first lockdown the government had to bribe people to go to restaurants.

    To get the economy going there will be some support from the government to help businesses to let in only the vaccinated.

    I'm sure the incel squad, sorry Covid Research Group, will put a sunset clause on the government support of this.
    Then businesses that implement it will be boycotted. Where I live there was a pub that every few years would go non smoking (prior to the smoking ban) it would only last a few months because by then all the customers had decamped.

    Venues that put in vaxports will in my view experience the same. If I am out for the night with a group of friends and they say lets goto bar A and I say I cant no vaxport....we will end up going to bar b instead.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,652

    Yup, we can relax if Dido Harding is put in charge of vaccine passports, we should have concerns if Kate Bingham is in charge of it.
    Yep, the Didas touch for this one please.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    He's right, tho. It feels exactly like that in north London, too. A wonderful, largely peaceful Liberation.

    The Nazi virus has been driven out. The Vaccine of the Allies has won. And Boris de Gaulle parades down Parkway.
  • NEW THREAD

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,394
    This thread has failed to show its health status covid app pass
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,148
    Thanks to @Big_G_NorthWales for mentioning that the Scottish leaders debate was on. I'd have missed it otherwise. My thoughts.

    I was impressed with the Green leader, Slater, which probably doesn't surprise many given my predisposition, but there have been times when I've willed a Green politician to do well in debates, and they've really bombed. I felt she gave a good impression of having a series of good ideas to implement, and was most focused on policy.

    At first I was quite disappointed with Sarwar, who seemed to be big on vague platitudes, but he had a good section where he talked a bit more specifics on the NHS.

    Sturgeon has decided to frame the election as Scotland v Boris. It's possible that every mention of "Boris Johnson" was worth a percentage point on the SNP vote.

    There were several times when Rennie used the exact same phrases that had just been used by Sarwar. It was uncanny. I felt sure he was about to say "I agree with Anas", at some point, but it didn't quite come.

    Ross had a dodgy moment when he wasn't able to say when he thought we should stop extracting oil from the North Sea, but it was right at the end that he really messed it up by deploying his prepared attack line against Labour in the worst possible circumstances, in response to a softball question on keeping debate respectful. What a twit.

    A bit depressing that there was zero mention of the Salmond scandal, and the questions of whether there was interference in the legal process, respecting the independence of the civil service, the rule of law, etc. In particular I think it was a missed opportunity not to have mentioned it right at the start when the BBC introduced the concept of trust in the opening question. Can you really trust the SNP with the rule of law?

    I was wondering whether Sarwar would give me a reason to vote Labour instead of Green, but he didn't really do so. Slater is standing in my constituency and it would be daft not to give her both my votes, even if I do disagree strongly on the Union.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Throughout covid the public have shown just how risk averse they are and it remains the case even though we are being vaccinated
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-56575135

    Yeah. They all look well terrified.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262
    edited March 2021
    Pagan2 said:

    Fine you are either too lazy or too thick to google
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9401561/Where-vaccine-passports-used-YouGov-poll-reveals-Britons-want-IDs-place-gyms.html
    So: 54% In favour, 18% Against (for various reasons), 19% 'Don't know enough about health passports', 8% Don't know, 1% Other.

    That seems credible.

    The DK's of both flavours will just go 'meh' and comply if the passports are required.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/survey-results/daily/2021/02/24/91a0e/2
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506
    Mortimer said:

    It is still my hope that this chatter about it is all a load of guff dreamed up by the Spi-B committee to nudge people into taking a vaccine.

    However with my party activist hat on I am incensed. Frankly it makes me sick that the party which I work so hard for and donate significant amounts of money and time to can even contemplate such illiberal policies.
    Think back to your early teachings. All those who gain power are afraid to lose it, even the Tories!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Mortimer said:

    That is why I said 'Govt' - the councils have been just as complicit. Scary posters everywhere.

    It has been a poor example of statescraft from all quarters.
    I'm getting somewhat annoyed by the current line that "what happens in the EU will wash up on our shores".

    Which completely ignores the facts that

    1) it is the UK variant currently washing up on EU shores not the other way around
    2) the whole point of vaccination is that the current problems in the EU should NOT impact significantly here. Otherwise why are we trumpeting how far ahead we are in vaccinating the population?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Pagan2 said:

    Then businesses that implement it will be boycotted. Where I live there was a pub that every few years would go non smoking (prior to the smoking ban) it would only last a few months because by then all the customers had decamped.

    Venues that put in vaxports will in my view experience the same. If I am out for the night with a group of friends and they say lets goto bar A and I say I cant no vaxport....we will end up going to bar b instead.
    Which is why the Government will make it mandatory. With public support.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Mortimer said:

    Have you tried to book anywhere nice recently? Its almost impossible.

    The public are aching to get back to normal. Barring a few 'better stay in the jungle in case the war isn't really over' fearties, some of whom, let us remember, have barely left the house in a year, the vast majority of people cannot wait to get back to normal. It is different to last year.
    Indeed. I was amazed to discover recently that I was unable to get a table at J. Sheekey on a Thursday in June!

    Also polls of the public should be controlled for those who would normally do those activities. I’m not clear why the opinions of those who never normally visit pubs are at all relevant to the formation of hospitality policy... ditto gyms, schools, spectator sports...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262
    alex_ said:

    I'm getting somewhat annoyed by the current line that "what happens in the EU will wash up on our shores".

    Which completely ignores the facts that

    1) it is the UK variant currently washing up on EU shores not the other way around
    2) the whole point of vaccination is that the current problems in the EU should NOT impact significantly here. Otherwise why are we trumpeting how far ahead we are in vaccinating the population?
    1) Wasn't it more: a variant first detected in the UK because we have better detection?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    alex_ said:

    I'm getting somewhat annoyed by the current line that "what happens in the EU will wash up on our shores".

    Which completely ignores the facts that

    1) it is the UK variant currently washing up on EU shores not the other way around
    2) the whole point of vaccination is that the current problems in the EU should NOT impact significantly here. Otherwise why are we trumpeting how far ahead we are in vaccinating the population?
    I’m collecting annoying Covid phrases:

    “No earlier than...”

    “Wash up on our shores...”

    “Caution is advised...”

    “Data not dates...”

    “New normal...”

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex_ said:

    I understand your basic position. But i think you are being very naive about the idea that this idea is being pushed by the Government as a "voluntary" option for businesses. Even if it is voluntary on paper, it will be de facto compulsory for any businesses wanting to open up properly. I don't believe that any business will opt in to such a scheme unless forced to and/or majorly incentivised to do so.

    I don't remotely think its a case of "customer confidence". It's simply that the Government will impose conditions unless you opt in. Young people don't care. Older people are vaccinated and feel safe. Those that might be reluctant will be vastly dwarfed by those who are keen. And enforcement will come with a major cost to business, so very few will go for it voluntarily.
    I'm operating under the assumption that all government restrictions on Covid expire 21/6 in which case this isn't done by compulsion.

    You're right that there needs to be an incentive to do it but in a free market incentives don't come from the state, they come from customers.

    Businesses advertising that they are doing passports for entry to boost security may be popular with some customers, while unpopular with others.

    So if some premises choose to require this, while others choose not to, and the customers are free to choose which they prefer, then that is the free market in action.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pagan2 said:

    Well you probably aren't. Then however one of your casual contacts does something and suddenly they are interested and start poking through your life because you had contact with someone.

    I speak as someone who is pretty sure there phone was bugged at on point in the 90's. Had a landline and an extension.....main phone didnt ring only the extension picked it up and got greeted with "hello operations" in other words someone fucked up their end
    Are you really surprised given what you were up to?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    I'm operating under the assumption that all government restrictions on Covid expire 21/6 in which case this isn't done by compulsion.

    You're right that there needs to be an incentive to do it but in a free market incentives don't come from the state, they come from customers.

    Businesses advertising that they are doing passports for entry to boost security may be popular with some customers, while unpopular with others.

    So if some premises choose to require this, while others choose not to, and the customers are free to choose which they prefer, then that is the free market in action.
    Absolutely. But i think the number of businesses pursuing this without de facto compulsion from the Government will be miniscule. There is little evidence that i can see of customer hesitancy that is potentially damaging to businesses. (One only has to look at the evidence cited above of how difficult it is to book any venues for weeks or months). And nowhere near enough to justify the costs of enforcement that it would involve. (For example, a pub with multiple entrances would have to lock most of them (possibly against fire regulations) or put a staff member on every door).

    So i can only see the incentive for businesses being if the Government actually incentivises their introduction. By penalising those who opt out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,085

    I watched it and agree Ross was poor but Anas Sarwar was miles ahead and Sturgeon was on the defensive throughout, no more so than on independence which was not at all popular with the audience


    https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1376987656941342725?s=19
    SLAB in second place is my bet. It is the way to kick both governments, Holyrood and Westminster...
  • felix said:

    OMG Aren't we allowed to discuss how boring some threads are now?
    Does this mean you'll stop posting? That would be great news for us all
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 309

    I’m collecting annoying Covid phrases:

    “No earlier than...”

    “Wash up on our shores...”

    “Caution is advised...”

    “Data not dates...”

    “New normal...”

    I've noticed this forum is very quick to pick up on memetic turns of phrase. If someone disagrees with you, they're "foaming", for example, which is the kind of description I wouldn't be shocked to hear IRL, but has become a meme here and is used far beyond what you'd normally expect.
This discussion has been closed.