Latest Savanta/ComRes lockdown tracker finds declining levels of compliance particularly amongst the
Latest Savanta/ComRes lockdown tracker finds declining levels of compliance particularly amongst the young – politicalbetting.com
In today’s poll the percentage of those in the 16-34 segment saying they are following the advice ‘mostly’ or ‘entirely’ – is now 58% down from 65% in January.
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We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.
Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.
In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"
No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.
Comment now removed by Guardian for polluting their community standards with sub-standard drivel.
We should be rapidly unlocking at least back to the point we were at in July last year domestically, while keeping the border sealed to protect our gains domestically. That's the trade-off.
Telling people to stay at home when nobody is dying is unforgiveable.
[£]
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-truth-is-many-of-us-have-loved-lockdown-kc30kfgms
Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
Those who do follow the rules are invariably going to feel more and more resentful. Especially those who's businesses cannot open, potentially for longer, because of it.
That is why the roadmap is linking levels of vaccination to reducing the levels of restrictions.
More than a fifth over 50s have been vaccinated already, the vulnerable under 50s. The majority of adults have been vaccinated now, which means they're much less likely to pass the virus on.
With our level of vaccinations, even with the new variant, there's little reason why ICUs should escalate any more than they did last July.
For my part, I do not trust them one bit. Everything they say or do is done in the political interests of their own party, or in the financial interests of their cronies. I make up my own mind and act accordingly. In this I am guided by what I read, not least by posters on PB. In the end, what I do is much more cautious that most of the government has said and done.
Am I alone in this?
It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.
They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.
My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.
This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -
There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
Not to mention that the people who have been vaccinated are those most at risk.
https://twitter.com/SpinningHugo/status/1374662943447642113?s=20
Who are all these people being admitted to hospital - *now*?
If you let rip, it's not long before you are back at admissions R of 1.x and then we are in the same position as Europe.
Hence a phased approach.
I am suggesting that people should be able to legally meet outdoors in small groups if they want to. That they should be allowed to outdoor exercise or even heaven forfend enjoy themselves by playing golf or tennis.
The government needs to get ahead of the game. It must regain control by reopening what is safe, before the public takes matters into its own hands and resumes unsafe activities. The previously issued roadmap is too cautious in places but also too arbitrary. Why is the government threatening drone strikes on sunbathers when outdoor transmission (and most of Britain's beaches are outdoors) is almost unheard of?
Their ICUs weren't filled.
You're assuming that R hasn't been affected by vaccinating half of the population, that's a ridiculously false assumption.
We are not remotely going to be in the same position as Europe because most adults in this country have antibodies now.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1374655142516158469
Until we get down to the 40s, the issue is that, yes, younger people don't get hospitalised very often. But there are lots and lots of them. Millions.
Israel lifted lockdown on 7/2. They weren't at 60% vaccinated by 7/2 by a long shot. Especially since they were double-dosing the vulnerable.
We've vaccinated as many people as Israel had by then.
A big ship in a small waterway creates all kinds of interesting effects. The simple version is that a ship in the canal will try and doing anything but run down the middle in a stable fashion.
That would go double for trying to go astern.....
I've always been curious.
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1374660815417180163
As in not produced for EU who no doubt feel they can nick them
People who work in affected businesses have had both their work and personal lives affected. It is a serious double whammy for them which, possibly because it has mostly affected small businesses, the young or ones which are not really valued by those in the professional classes who make up the commentariat, does not seem to be understood as much as it should be.
"Evidence continues to suggest that the vast majority of transmission happens in
indoor spaces; recent reviews considering data from several countries found very
little evidence of outdoor transmission for SARS-CoV-2, influenza or other
respiratory viruses [9, 10]. The small number of cases where outdoor transmission
may have occurred are associated with gatherings that facilitate close interactions,
particularly extended duration, or settings where people mixed in indoor venues
alongside an outdoor setting. It is therefore important that messaging recognises that
close interactions outdoors can still pose a risk. "
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/945978/S0921_Factors_contributing_to_risk_of_SARS_18122020.pdf
I work from home as a matter of course and the impact on my working life has been zero. But I'd still prefer a world with no pandemic.
And it is too late, I am not against a phased approach, just that the dates are 1) too late if we continue to stay on track and 2) cannot be brought forward even if the data says they should be.
https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1374640553229484032
"The Committee on Standards in Public Life (CSPL) advises the Prime Minister on ethical standards across the whole of public life. It monitors and reports on issues relating to arrangements for upholding the standards of conduct of all public office holders.
The Prime Minister is seeking independent members to join the Committee for a five year term.
We are looking for high calibre individuals with a real interest in ethical standards and commitment to the principles of public life, who could make a strong contribution to the important work of this Committee."
Is this what is known as performative art by the PM? A sort of elaborate joke on us all, the joke being that there is absolutely no point giving such advice because neither the PM nor anyone in his government will follow it?
https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1374533269245497346
Vaccinating 40% of the population has effected R. The question you are asking is whether vaccinating 40% of the population with a vaccine that is say 80% efficacious will bring R down enough to stop a take off.
A rough estimate is that you multiply the 2 - so you get a vaccine effect of 0.32
Which suggests that if the rest of your measures bring the R down to 1.4 or so, then the vaccination effect will take you down to a combined R of 1.
The hospitalisation data above is real world, remember.
The accident is at the worst possible point in the whole system, travelling northbound close to Suez city in the south of the canal. There’s no way around the blockage, so all rescue equipment needs to come from the north down the whole canal, unless they first back out all the vessels behind it to the south.
The canal doesn’t have a completely flat bottom, it’s sloped at both sides with a relatively small lane of full depth in the centre. It’s likely grounded on both bow and stern, with the bow embedded some 30m into the side of the bank. It’s probably damaged sufficiently at the bow to be taking on water, which won’t help it float.
Possibly the only way they drag it out, is by using the similarly large ship behind, many tug boats and a lot of very large cables. Once it’s floating, they need to patch it up and move it out of the canal for repairs.
I guess this is why shipping insurance is more expensive than you think it should be!
We've vaccinated more of our under 50s than Israel had when lockdown was lifted. Its preposterous to suggest they'll suddenly all become infected overnight.
It was caught by gale force winds causing the ship to slew sideward
There is not a captain anywhere who could have prevented it other than those pilots and authorities who may have been able to anticipate the problem from weather forecasting and close the canal to this type of vessel
If it's anything like the banks, it is another example of how money and influence works in the US. Quite simply, if you are working for a powerful enough entity in the US, they can sort you out working status in day or so.
The Tory and Labour poll shares look to be quite tightly anti-correlated. That is, when the Tory share goes down the Labour share goes up. This suggests there is direct swing of voters between the two parties.
This might seem like an unsurprising result, but it was notably absent from the polling in the previous Parliament, most likely because Corbyn's leadership had become so toxic for potential swing voters.
That is definitively over now. Labour at least have a chance if they can manage to do all the other things an opposition needs to do.
https://twitter.com/JacobBCraig/status/1374448724147986435?s=20
How low do you think hospital admissions will be in five weeks ?
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1374671940150042632
How could anyone apply with a straight face?
Again what proportion of the population (not jabs) had Israel done when they lifted lockdown?
The purpose of lockdown isn't to stop every single death or hospitalisation from ever occuring, it is to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed. That won't, that can't effectively, happen now that most of the country and almost all of the vulnerable have immunity either naturally acquired or from vaccines.
We have a nice 0.8 (or so) R for hospitals at the moment. The issue is that 0.8 turns into 1.05 quite easily.
I don't want to do this all over again. At this point a 5 weeks is not much to ask to get security - at that point we will (the fuckwits willing) have the over 50s done to a high level - including getting areas such as Newham to a better state....
He’s not just making oodles of money giving speeches to investment bankers and documentaries for Netflix.
He’s working for a *mental health* company
He’s not such a bad guy giving up his valuable time like that...
It is shameful and indefensible.
The international creditability of the EU is at stake
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1374675149643993092?s=20
Someone will have signed off his paperwork, probably a while back.
https://twitter.com/jamesfraney/status/1374675700855287812?s=20
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1374674872719278081
Highly recommended.
Anyway.,
https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1374670760195858439?s=21
(without starting a vaccine war...)