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Latest Savanta/ComRes lockdown tracker finds declining levels of compliance particularly amongst the

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 24 in General
imageLatest Savanta/ComRes lockdown tracker finds declining levels of compliance particularly amongst the young – politicalbetting.com

In today’s poll the percentage of those in the 16-34 segment saying they are following the advice ‘mostly’ or ‘entirely’ – is now 58% down from 65% in January.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    edited March 24
    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,914
    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The Tories aren't thinking this through. They should invite newly elected Tory MPs in red wall seats to bid for the construction of the Gulag which political prisoners such as asylum seekers can he "housed" in. Money can be made in construction and operation of the facility as well as for small business people who can sell rotten shellfish we can't export to be hurled in hate at the walls.
    The Brexit seats voted to leave the EU because they didn't want foreigners. No red wall seat MP is going to willingly accept a asylum in their constituency.
    The question is how many MPs of any sort are queueing up to offer?

    BTW there are more complications. An announcement recently opening the doors to millions of HK refugees was received without much comment either from left or right. So a straight 'racist' critique about Brexiteers etc won't quite do.

    They aren't asylum seekers. Those are the ones who come here on dinghies to simultaneously take all the jobs AND claim benefits. An announcement about HK *possible* migrants hasn't remotely cut through onto people's consciousness. Yet.
    People in this country are generous and don't mind legitimate migration.

    People flying legally from HK, or being flown from refugee camps in Turkey to be resettled in the UK is not objected to.
    People created enough fuss about hard-working Poles.
    Why are you bringing economic migration into a debate about asylum?
    I was replying to Philip Thompson's comment about generosity and legitimacy.
    But what has that got to do with economic migration?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,850
    edited March 24
    3rd.

    Comment now removed by Guardian for polluting their community standards with sub-standard drivel.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,316
    "But there is a group of people who have actually become happier in the past 12 months and they aren’t the super-rich sunbathing in the Maldives. According to research published today by the Policy Institute at King’s College London (KCL) and Ipsos Mori, one in five believe their lives have improved since last March and they feel more content, while 54 per cent say they will miss some aspects of the Covid-19 restrictions."

    [£]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-truth-is-many-of-us-have-loved-lockdown-kc30kfgms
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,242
    edited March 24

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    edited March 24
    Seeing other people openly break the rules is the worst part about all of this. I don't blame them, but it's still crap.

    Those who do follow the rules are invariably going to feel more and more resentful. Especially those who's businesses cannot open, potentially for longer, because of it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    Excess deaths are over. The second wave is over.

    We should be rapidly unlocking at least back to the point we were at in July last year domestically, while keeping the border sealed to protect our gains domestically. That's the trade-off.

    Telling people to stay at home when nobody is dying is unforgiveable.

    Given what we know about the current strains, a full unlock now would quickly fill up ICU with 30-50 year olds.

    That is why the roadmap is linking levels of vaccination to reducing the levels of restrictions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    Excess deaths are over. The second wave is over.

    We should be rapidly unlocking at least back to the point we were at in July last year domestically, while keeping the border sealed to protect our gains domestically. That's the trade-off.

    Telling people to stay at home when nobody is dying is unforgiveable.

    Given what we know about the current strains, a full unlock now would quickly fill up ICU with 30-50 year olds.

    That is why the roadmap is linking levels of vaccination to reducing the levels of restrictions.
    I think that's a load of bollocks sorry.

    More than a fifth over 50s have been vaccinated already, the vulnerable under 50s. The majority of adults have been vaccinated now, which means they're much less likely to pass the virus on.

    With our level of vaccinations, even with the new variant, there's little reason why ICUs should escalate any more than they did last July.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 646
    "Compliance with guidance is dipping slightly" - and for one I am not surprised. Polling seems to concentrate on the persona of Mr Johnson. But if it started asking about trust in the group of politicians who make up the government, I think the results would be rather different.

    For my part, I do not trust them one bit. Everything they say or do is done in the political interests of their own party, or in the financial interests of their cronies. I make up my own mind and act accordingly. In this I am guided by what I read, not least by posters on PB. In the end, what I do is much more cautious that most of the government has said and done.

    Am I alone in this?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,528

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    Add in those who have immunity through infection and it will be 60%+.

    Not to mention that the people who have been vaccinated are those most at risk.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    @bigjohnowls the problem Starmer has is that he cannot call out Tory corruption if he doesn't call out his own.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,850
    Sandpit said:

    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.

    I'd be worried about the ones that have come 120 miles from the other end and now have to reverse...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    Excess deaths are over. The second wave is over.

    We should be rapidly unlocking at least back to the point we were at in July last year domestically, while keeping the border sealed to protect our gains domestically. That's the trade-off.

    Telling people to stay at home when nobody is dying is unforgiveable.

    Given what we know about the current strains, a full unlock now would quickly fill up ICU with 30-50 year olds.

    That is why the roadmap is linking levels of vaccination to reducing the levels of restrictions.
    I think that's a load of bollocks sorry.

    More than a fifth over 50s have been vaccinated already, the vulnerable under 50s. The majority of adults have been vaccinated now, which means they're much less likely to pass the virus on.

    With our level of vaccinations, even with the new variant, there's little reason why ICUs should escalate any more than they did last July.
    Hospital admissions R is around 0.8

    Who are all these people being admitted to hospital - *now*?

    image

    If you let rip, it's not long before you are back at admissions R of 1.x and then we are in the same position as Europe.

    Hence a phased approach.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,321

    @bigjohnowls the problem Starmer has is that he cannot call out Tory corruption if he doesn't call out his own.
    Hence me posting without comment.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,242

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    FFS I am not suggesting a total relaxation at all.

    I am suggesting that people should be able to legally meet outdoors in small groups if they want to. That they should be allowed to outdoor exercise or even heaven forfend enjoy themselves by playing golf or tennis.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 6,630

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    As suggested on pb days ago, there ought to have been a quid pro quo for getting the needle, such as freedom to meet others or visit care homes -- partly because such informal loosening was bound to happen anyway.

    The government needs to get ahead of the game. It must regain control by reopening what is safe, before the public takes matters into its own hands and resumes unsafe activities. The previously issued roadmap is too cautious in places but also too arbitrary. Why is the government threatening drone strikes on sunbathers when outdoor transmission (and most of Britain's beaches are outdoors) is almost unheard of?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    I believe many more people in this country have been vaccinated than were in Israel when they lifted their lockdown, since Israel were double-dosing their vulnerable.

    Their ICUs weren't filled.

    You're assuming that R hasn't been affected by vaccinating half of the population, that's a ridiculously false assumption.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    Excess deaths are over. The second wave is over.

    We should be rapidly unlocking at least back to the point we were at in July last year domestically, while keeping the border sealed to protect our gains domestically. That's the trade-off.

    Telling people to stay at home when nobody is dying is unforgiveable.

    Given what we know about the current strains, a full unlock now would quickly fill up ICU with 30-50 year olds.

    That is why the roadmap is linking levels of vaccination to reducing the levels of restrictions.
    I think that's a load of bollocks sorry.

    More than a fifth over 50s have been vaccinated already, the vulnerable under 50s. The majority of adults have been vaccinated now, which means they're much less likely to pass the virus on.

    With our level of vaccinations, even with the new variant, there's little reason why ICUs should escalate any more than they did last July.
    Hospital admissions R is around 0.8

    Who are all these people being admitted to hospital - *now*?

    image

    If you let rip, it's not long before you are back at admissions R of 1.x and then we are in the same position as Europe.

    Hence a phased approach.
    0.8 of an increasingly low number is still a low number. Its hard to get much lower than that.

    We are not remotely going to be in the same position as Europe because most adults in this country have antibodies now.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    Andy_JS said:

    "But there is a group of people who have actually become happier in the past 12 months and they aren’t the super-rich sunbathing in the Maldives. According to research published today by the Policy Institute at King’s College London (KCL) and Ipsos Mori, one in five believe their lives have improved since last March and they feel more content, while 54 per cent say they will miss some aspects of the Covid-19 restrictions."

    [£]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-truth-is-many-of-us-have-loved-lockdown-kc30kfgms

    I can see that, the pre lockdown pace of day to day life in the West probably was too fast for some people, so a minority enjoying lockdown isn’t that surprising
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 6,630
    If Robert Jenrick is genuinely concerned about property development scandals, perhaps he should look closer to home.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    FFS I am not suggesting a total relaxation at all.

    I am suggesting that people should be able to legally meet outdoors in small groups if they want to. That they should be allowed to outdoor exercise or even heaven forfend enjoy themselves by playing golf or tennis.
    Each relaxation will raise R - so the roadmap links that to vaccination levels.

    Until we get down to the 40s, the issue is that, yes, younger people don't get hospitalised very often. But there are lots and lots of them. Millions.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,242

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    As suggested on pb days ago, there ought to have been a quid pro quo for getting the needle, such as freedom to meet others or visit care homes -- partly because such informal loosening was bound to happen anyway.

    The government needs to get ahead of the game. It must regain control by reopening what is safe, before the public takes matters into its own hands and resumes unsafe activities. The previously issued roadmap is too cautious in places but also too arbitrary. Why is the government threatening drone strikes on sunbathers when outdoor transmission (and most of Britain's beaches are outdoors) is almost unheard of?
    Because its run by authoritarian clowns with a love of shiny new tech?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    edited March 24
    Sandpit said:

    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.

    What I don’t understand is how Captain Frank Spencer did it? I’ve never skippered a supertanker myself but it feels like at a certain point in the turn you’d think “hmmm, maybe not, I’ll never clear that”.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    Add in those who have immunity through infection and it will be 60%+.

    Not to mention that the people who have been vaccinated are those most at risk.
    Indeed.

    Israel lifted lockdown on 7/2. They weren't at 60% vaccinated by 7/2 by a long shot. Especially since they were double-dosing the vulnerable.

    We've vaccinated as many people as Israel had by then.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.

    I'd be worried about the ones that have come 120 miles from the other end and now have to reverse...
    Especially since one of the reasons this happened (I am quite sure) is that navigation in the canal is very difficult.

    A big ship in a small waterway creates all kinds of interesting effects. The simple version is that a ship in the canal will try and doing anything but run down the middle in a stable fashion.

    That would go double for trying to go astern.....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,422

    @bigjohnowls the problem Starmer has is that he cannot call out Tory corruption if he doesn't call out his own.
    This. Yes they could lose the council and the mayorality in the short term. But the alternative is to provide succour to the Tories own corruption, which is a longer term damage.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012
    "Hidden" LOL

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1374660815417180163

    As in not produced for EU who no doubt feel they can nick them
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 6,630
    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "But there is a group of people who have actually become happier in the past 12 months and they aren’t the super-rich sunbathing in the Maldives. According to research published today by the Policy Institute at King’s College London (KCL) and Ipsos Mori, one in five believe their lives have improved since last March and they feel more content, while 54 per cent say they will miss some aspects of the Covid-19 restrictions."

    [£]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-truth-is-many-of-us-have-loved-lockdown-kc30kfgms

    I can see that, the pre lockdown pace of day to day life in the West probably was too fast for some people, so a minority enjoying lockdown isn’t that surprising
    Some of those enjoying lockdown post here. If you are established in a safe white collar job, with a big house and no children, and are introverted, WFH is great -- no commuting, no forced socialising, no need to dress up. What's not to like?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,560

    Seeing other people openly break the rules is the worst part about all of this. I don't blame them, but it's still crap.

    Those who do follow the rules are invariably going to feel more and more resentful. Especially those who's businesses cannot open, potentially for longer, because of it.

    Until businesses can open it's not over. People seem to forget that businesses are losing money or closing or getting into more and more debt, people are having their pay cut, are not earning bonuses or tips, are not developing or practising their skills or getting the chance to learn and try new skills. Many businesses have been really severely hurt by the restrictions and the priority should be to get them back operating again. It's not just about allowing people to visit their friends and relatives, important as that is.

    People who work in affected businesses have had both their work and personal lives affected. It is a serious double whammy for them which, possibly because it has mostly affected small businesses, the young or ones which are not really valued by those in the professional classes who make up the commentariat, does not seem to be understood as much as it should be.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    FFS I am not suggesting a total relaxation at all.

    I am suggesting that people should be able to legally meet outdoors in small groups if they want to. That they should be allowed to outdoor exercise or even heaven forfend enjoy themselves by playing golf or tennis.
    That happens next week
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,242

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    FFS I am not suggesting a total relaxation at all.

    I am suggesting that people should be able to legally meet outdoors in small groups if they want to. That they should be allowed to outdoor exercise or even heaven forfend enjoy themselves by playing golf or tennis.
    Each relaxation will raise R - so the roadmap links that to vaccination levels.

    Until we get down to the 40s, the issue is that, yes, younger people don't get hospitalised very often. But there are lots and lots of them. Millions.
    Outdoor transmission is extremely rare, our rules are completely disproportionate to the risks:

    "Evidence continues to suggest that the vast majority of transmission happens in
    indoor spaces; recent reviews considering data from several countries found very
    little evidence of outdoor transmission for SARS-CoV-2, influenza or other
    respiratory viruses [9, 10]. The small number of cases where outdoor transmission
    may have occurred are associated with gatherings that facilitate close interactions,
    particularly extended duration, or settings where people mixed in indoor venues
    alongside an outdoor setting. It is therefore important that messaging recognises that
    close interactions outdoors can still pose a risk. "

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/945978/S0921_Factors_contributing_to_risk_of_SARS_18122020.pdf
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,321

    If Robert Jenrick is genuinely concerned about property development scandals, perhaps he should look closer to home.
    There is a scandal exemption clause i believe
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    Floater said:

    "Hidden" LOL

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1374660815417180163

    As in not produced for EU who no doubt feel they can nick them

    They really, really need to be careful. Dicking about with Canadian supplies is getting awfully close to affecting the US directly, given Biden’s decision to share with his neighbour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    Andy_JS said:

    "But there is a group of people who have actually become happier in the past 12 months and they aren’t the super-rich sunbathing in the Maldives. According to research published today by the Policy Institute at King’s College London (KCL) and Ipsos Mori, one in five believe their lives have improved since last March and they feel more content, while 54 per cent say they will miss some aspects of the Covid-19 restrictions."

    [£]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-truth-is-many-of-us-have-loved-lockdown-kc30kfgms

    My wife says she is much happier this past year. How much of that is having the opportunity to spend every day, every night with her gorgeous husband is....debatable.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "But there is a group of people who have actually become happier in the past 12 months and they aren’t the super-rich sunbathing in the Maldives. According to research published today by the Policy Institute at King’s College London (KCL) and Ipsos Mori, one in five believe their lives have improved since last March and they feel more content, while 54 per cent say they will miss some aspects of the Covid-19 restrictions."

    [£]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-truth-is-many-of-us-have-loved-lockdown-kc30kfgms

    I can see that, the pre lockdown pace of day to day life in the West probably was too fast for some people, so a minority enjoying lockdown isn’t that surprising
    Some of those enjoying lockdown post here. If you are established in a safe white collar job, with a big house and no children, and are introverted, WFH is great -- no commuting, no forced socialising, no need to dress up. What's not to like?
    Yep!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,280
    Mr. JohnL, the risk of friends/family dying?

    I work from home as a matter of course and the impact on my working life has been zero. But I'd still prefer a world with no pandemic.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    Millionaires don’t ever seem to have quite the same rules apply to them as you and I, do they?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,691

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    I love data. What is the reason for the increase and then decrease across the non England parts of the UK? Clearly the schools testing is impacting the R from positive tests, but that shouldn't affect hospital admisions?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    Add in those who have immunity through infection and it will be 60%+.

    Not to mention that the people who have been vaccinated are those most at risk.
    Indeed.

    Israel lifted lockdown on 7/2. They weren't at 60% vaccinated by 7/2 by a long shot. Especially since they were double-dosing the vulnerable.

    We've vaccinated as many people as Israel had by then.
    They have a large group who have consistently flouted the rules and caught the bug so higher natural immunity levels
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,914

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    I don't know if it was an urban myth, but someone once told me that Ruby Wax was in the UK illegally.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,242
    Charles said:

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    FFS I am not suggesting a total relaxation at all.

    I am suggesting that people should be able to legally meet outdoors in small groups if they want to. That they should be allowed to outdoor exercise or even heaven forfend enjoy themselves by playing golf or tennis.
    That happens next week
    Not fully, it is the rule of 6/2 households not the rule of 6.

    And it is too late, I am not against a phased approach, just that the dates are 1) too late if we continue to stay on track and 2) cannot be brought forward even if the data says they should be.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,528

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    I doubt he will be doing any 'work'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    Lucy Powell admits we have been nimbler on vaccine outside the EU:

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1374640553229484032
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    I believe many more people in this country have been vaccinated than were in Israel when they lifted their lockdown, since Israel were double-dosing their vulnerable.

    Their ICUs weren't filled.

    You're assuming that R hasn't been affected by vaccinating half of the population, that's a ridiculously false assumption.
    No, I'm not.

    Vaccinating 40% of the population has effected R. The question you are asking is whether vaccinating 40% of the population with a vaccine that is say 80% efficacious will bring R down enough to stop a take off.

    A rough estimate is that you multiply the 2 - so you get a vaccine effect of 0.32

    Which suggests that if the rest of your measures bring the R down to 1.4 or so, then the vaccination effect will take you down to a combined R of 1.

    The hospitalisation data above is real world, remember.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.

    I'd be worried about the ones that have come 120 miles from the other end and now have to reverse...
    They travel in convoys and can’t turn around in the width of the canal, so would probably need to be backed out by tugs, one at a time.

    The accident is at the worst possible point in the whole system, travelling northbound close to Suez city in the south of the canal. There’s no way around the blockage, so all rescue equipment needs to come from the north down the whole canal, unless they first back out all the vessels behind it to the south.

    The canal doesn’t have a completely flat bottom, it’s sloped at both sides with a relatively small lane of full depth in the centre. It’s likely grounded on both bow and stern, with the bow embedded some 30m into the side of the bank. It’s probably damaged sufficiently at the bow to be taking on water, which won’t help it float.

    Possibly the only way they drag it out, is by using the similarly large ship behind, many tug boats and a lot of very large cables. Once it’s floating, they need to patch it up and move it out of the canal for repairs.

    I guess this is why shipping insurance is more expensive than you think it should be!
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "But there is a group of people who have actually become happier in the past 12 months and they aren’t the super-rich sunbathing in the Maldives. According to research published today by the Policy Institute at King’s College London (KCL) and Ipsos Mori, one in five believe their lives have improved since last March and they feel more content, while 54 per cent say they will miss some aspects of the Covid-19 restrictions."

    [£]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-truth-is-many-of-us-have-loved-lockdown-kc30kfgms

    I can see that, the pre lockdown pace of day to day life in the West probably was too fast for some people, so a minority enjoying lockdown isn’t that surprising
    Some of those enjoying lockdown post here. If you are established in a safe white collar job, with a big house and no children, and are introverted, WFH is great -- no commuting, no forced socialising, no need to dress up. What's not to like?
    To be honest it hasn’t bothered me that much. I worked from home anyway, and had spent the best part of a decade single & feeling quite lonely. Three years ago I met my girlfriend and we moved in together in a fairly big house, had a son, then lockdown began. So I’ve been indoors with them but more fulfilled than ever really. In the main it has been bad for people though of course, I would have suffered three years ago.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,448

    Excess deaths are over. The second wave is over.

    We should be rapidly unlocking at least back to the point we were at in July last year domestically, while keeping the border sealed to protect our gains domestically. That's the trade-off.

    Telling people to stay at home when nobody is dying is unforgiveable.

    Given what we know about the current strains, a full unlock now would quickly fill up ICU with 30-50 year olds.

    That is why the roadmap is linking levels of vaccination to reducing the levels of restrictions.
    I think that's a load of bollocks sorry.

    More than a fifth over 50s have been vaccinated already, the vulnerable under 50s. The majority of adults have been vaccinated now, which means they're much less likely to pass the virus on.

    With our level of vaccinations, even with the new variant, there's little reason why ICUs should escalate any more than they did last July.
    Hospital admissions R is around 0.8

    Who are all these people being admitted to hospital - *now*?

    image

    If you let rip, it's not long before you are back at admissions R of 1.x and then we are in the same position as Europe.

    Hence a phased approach.
    My understanding is that the hospital admissions figure includes people who came in to hospital for other reasons but then tested positive for covid in hospital. This will include primarily those who caught covid in hospital, also those who had covid but were unaware of it, and false positives. I think? When covid is prevalent, the existence of this subset doesn't lessen the value of hospitalisations as an indicator - but perhaps at the low levels we have now, hospitalisations is a less accurate indicator of the true picture? Happy to be corrected - none of the above is based on much more than hearsay.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402

    Sandpit said:

    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.

    What I don’t understand is how Captain Frank Spencer did it? I’ve never skippered a supertanker myself but it feels like at a certain point in the turn you’d think “hmmm, maybe not, I’ll never clear that”.
    Sudden loss of power which included steering.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,560

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    It's a non-job.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695

    Sandpit said:

    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.

    What I don’t understand is how Captain Frank Spencer did it? I’ve never skippered a supertanker myself but it feels like at a certain point in the turn you’d think “hmmm, maybe not, I’ll never clear that”.
    In 2012, there was an 80,000 tonnes bulk carrier full of corn that was crossing from Brazil to South Africa. They seemed not to notice that between the two were Tristan da Cunha and its two associated islands. Whilst they partied for several days, they managed to smash into Nightingale Island and sink. (Releasing 1,800 tonnes of bunker fuel into the sea, coating all the penguins. Idiots.)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    FFS I am not suggesting a total relaxation at all.

    I am suggesting that people should be able to legally meet outdoors in small groups if they want to. That they should be allowed to outdoor exercise or even heaven forfend enjoy themselves by playing golf or tennis.
    Each relaxation will raise R - so the roadmap links that to vaccination levels.

    Until we get down to the 40s, the issue is that, yes, younger people don't get hospitalised very often. But there are lots and lots of them. Millions.
    Indeed, just as there were last July when lockdown was lifted. Just as there were in Israel when lockdown was lifted.

    We've vaccinated more of our under 50s than Israel had when lockdown was lifted. Its preposterous to suggest they'll suddenly all become infected overnight.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020

    Lucy Powell admits we have been nimbler on vaccine outside the EU:

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1374640553229484032

    Fair enough.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 39,928
    edited March 24

    Sandpit said:

    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.

    What I don’t understand is how Captain Frank Spencer did it? I’ve never skippered a supertanker myself but it feels like at a certain point in the turn you’d think “hmmm, maybe not, I’ll never clear that”.
    The ship was fully loaded with containers and one of the largest in the World

    It was caught by gale force winds causing the ship to slew sideward

    There is not a captain anywhere who could have prevented it other than those pilots and authorities who may have been able to anticipate the problem from weather forecasting and close the canal to this type of vessel
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Cyclefree said:

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    It's a non-job.
    He'll still need the right to work. It may be a non-job, but they will be paying him is non-imaginary-money.

    If it's anything like the banks, it is another example of how money and influence works in the US. Quite simply, if you are working for a powerful enough entity in the US, they can sort you out working status in day or so.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137
    After the thread yesterday on recent opinion poll movements, I've had another look at the trends since the general election and I think there is some encouraging news for Labour.

    The Tory and Labour poll shares look to be quite tightly anti-correlated. That is, when the Tory share goes down the Labour share goes up. This suggests there is direct swing of voters between the two parties.

    This might seem like an unsurprising result, but it was notably absent from the polling in the previous Parliament, most likely because Corbyn's leadership had become so toxic for potential swing voters.

    That is definitively over now. Labour at least have a chance if they can manage to do all the other things an opposition needs to do.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402
    Let it never be said that puerile doesn't have a place in politics.

    https://twitter.com/JacobBCraig/status/1374448724147986435?s=20
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,528

    Excess deaths are over. The second wave is over.

    We should be rapidly unlocking at least back to the point we were at in July last year domestically, while keeping the border sealed to protect our gains domestically. That's the trade-off.

    Telling people to stay at home when nobody is dying is unforgiveable.

    Given what we know about the current strains, a full unlock now would quickly fill up ICU with 30-50 year olds.

    That is why the roadmap is linking levels of vaccination to reducing the levels of restrictions.
    I think that's a load of bollocks sorry.

    More than a fifth over 50s have been vaccinated already, the vulnerable under 50s. The majority of adults have been vaccinated now, which means they're much less likely to pass the virus on.

    With our level of vaccinations, even with the new variant, there's little reason why ICUs should escalate any more than they did last July.
    Hospital admissions R is around 0.8

    Who are all these people being admitted to hospital - *now*?

    image

    If you let rip, it's not long before you are back at admissions R of 1.x and then we are in the same position as Europe.

    Hence a phased approach.
    There's a five week lag between the effect of new vaccinations on hospital admissions.

    How low do you think hospital admissions will be in five weeks ?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012
    Paging the grey man - you need to up your game mate!!!!

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1374671940150042632
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,166
    tlg86 said:

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    I don't know if it was an urban myth, but someone once told me that Ruby Wax was in the UK illegally.
    Great. Now Priti will be looking for her.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,560
    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Oh look -

    "The Committee on Standards in Public Life (CSPL) advises the Prime Minister on ethical standards across the whole of public life. It monitors and reports on issues relating to arrangements for upholding the standards of conduct of all public office holders.

    The Prime Minister is seeking independent members to join the Committee for a five year term.

    We are looking for high calibre individuals with a real interest in ethical standards and commitment to the principles of public life, who could make a strong contribution to the important work of this Committee."

    Is this what is known as performative art by the PM? A sort of elaborate joke on us all, the joke being that there is absolutely no point giving such advice because neither the PM nor anyone in his government will follow it?

    Go on. You know you want to... ;)
    I tried for the House of Commons Standards Committee last year and was turned down though I saw that a year later they were recruiting again. The police watchdog, the IOPC, did not want me either, funnily enough.

    How could anyone apply with a straight face?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577

    Sandpit said:

    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.

    What I don’t understand is how Captain Frank Spencer did it? I’ve never skippered a supertanker myself but it feels like at a certain point in the turn you’d think “hmmm, maybe not, I’ll never clear that”.
    It sounds like they had a power failure, rather than were trying to turn around. Vessels in canals and ports also have a local “Pilot” on board, who’s in charge of the vessel through their stretch of water.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,691

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    I believe many more people in this country have been vaccinated than were in Israel when they lifted their lockdown, since Israel were double-dosing their vulnerable.

    Their ICUs weren't filled.

    You're assuming that R hasn't been affected by vaccinating half of the population, that's a ridiculously false assumption.
    No, I'm not.

    Vaccinating 40% of the population has effected R. The question you are asking is whether vaccinating 40% of the population with a vaccine that is say 80% efficacious will bring R down enough to stop a take off.

    A rough estimate is that you multiply the 2 - so you get a vaccine effect of 0.32

    Which suggests that if the rest of your measures bring the R down to 1.4 or so, then the vaccination effect will take you down to a combined R of 1.

    The hospitalisation data above is real world, remember.
    I'll just throw into the mix my belief that many people already mixing quite a lot, certainly among family. The shops are not open, nor are the pubs etc, but I don't think we are going to be going from nothing to a lot in a big bang. More and more people, particularly the lucky sods who have had at least one jab (like me) are feeling much safer about meeting others who have also been jabbed. The government has resisted calls to let those people free ahead of the unvaccinated (I believe in some US states they have done this). But the change from where we are today to the April 12th will not be as big as expected.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    A compete relaxation now will fill ICU - there are enough 30-50 year olds who will get sick enough.

    This is R calculated from *hospital admissions* -

    image

    There isn't a vast amount of leeway.
    I believe many more people in this country have been vaccinated than were in Israel when they lifted their lockdown, since Israel were double-dosing their vulnerable.

    Their ICUs weren't filled.

    You're assuming that R hasn't been affected by vaccinating half of the population, that's a ridiculously false assumption.
    No, I'm not.

    Vaccinating 40% of the population has effected R. The question you are asking is whether vaccinating 40% of the population with a vaccine that is say 80% efficacious will bring R down enough to stop a take off.

    A rough estimate is that you multiply the 2 - so you get a vaccine effect of 0.32

    Which suggests that if the rest of your measures bring the R down to 1.4 or so, then the vaccination effect will take you down to a combined R of 1.

    The hospitalisation data above is real world, remember.
    Indeed to which the answer is yes, yes it is enough.

    Again what proportion of the population (not jabs) had Israel done when they lifted lockdown?

    The purpose of lockdown isn't to stop every single death or hospitalisation from ever occuring, it is to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed. That won't, that can't effectively, happen now that most of the country and almost all of the vulnerable have immunity either naturally acquired or from vaccines.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,598
    So - what effect will the EU export ban have on us?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    Cyclefree said:

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    It's a non-job.
    He'll still need the right to work. It may be a non-job, but they will be paying him is non-imaginary-money.

    If it's anything like the banks, it is another example of how money and influence works in the US. Quite simply, if you are working for a powerful enough entity in the US, they can sort you out working status in day or so.
    That's true but he's also married to an American so entitled to a Green Card anyway.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    Excess deaths are over. The second wave is over.

    We should be rapidly unlocking at least back to the point we were at in July last year domestically, while keeping the border sealed to protect our gains domestically. That's the trade-off.

    Telling people to stay at home when nobody is dying is unforgiveable.

    Given what we know about the current strains, a full unlock now would quickly fill up ICU with 30-50 year olds.

    That is why the roadmap is linking levels of vaccination to reducing the levels of restrictions.
    I think that's a load of bollocks sorry.

    More than a fifth over 50s have been vaccinated already, the vulnerable under 50s. The majority of adults have been vaccinated now, which means they're much less likely to pass the virus on.

    With our level of vaccinations, even with the new variant, there's little reason why ICUs should escalate any more than they did last July.
    Hospital admissions R is around 0.8

    Who are all these people being admitted to hospital - *now*?

    image

    If you let rip, it's not long before you are back at admissions R of 1.x and then we are in the same position as Europe.

    Hence a phased approach.
    There's a five week lag between the effect of new vaccinations on hospital admissions.

    How low do you think hospital admissions will be in five weeks ?
    Hopefully nice and low. Hopefully.

    We have a nice 0.8 (or so) R for hospitals at the moment. The issue is that 0.8 turns into 1.05 quite easily.

    I don't want to do this all over again. At this point a 5 weeks is not much to ask to get security - at that point we will (the fuckwits willing) have the over 50s done to a high level - including getting areas such as Newham to a better state....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969
    Cyclefree said:

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    It's a non-job.
    Not at all. It’s very important.

    He’s not just making oodles of money giving speeches to investment bankers and documentaries for Netflix.

    He’s working for a *mental health* company

    He’s not such a bad guy giving up his valuable time like that...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    If the "Italian stash" are due to go to Canada & Mexico blocking them would not meet the second criterion.....

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    Excess deaths are over. The second wave is over.

    We should be rapidly unlocking at least back to the point we were at in July last year domestically, while keeping the border sealed to protect our gains domestically. That's the trade-off.

    Telling people to stay at home when nobody is dying is unforgiveable.

    Given what we know about the current strains, a full unlock now would quickly fill up ICU with 30-50 year olds.

    That is why the roadmap is linking levels of vaccination to reducing the levels of restrictions.
    I think that's a load of bollocks sorry.

    More than a fifth over 50s have been vaccinated already, the vulnerable under 50s. The majority of adults have been vaccinated now, which means they're much less likely to pass the virus on.

    With our level of vaccinations, even with the new variant, there's little reason why ICUs should escalate any more than they did last July.
    Hospital admissions R is around 0.8

    Who are all these people being admitted to hospital - *now*?

    image

    If you let rip, it's not long before you are back at admissions R of 1.x and then we are in the same position as Europe.

    Hence a phased approach.
    There's a five week lag between the effect of new vaccinations on hospital admissions.

    How low do you think hospital admissions will be in five weeks ?
    Hopefully nice and low. Hopefully.

    We have a nice 0.8 (or so) R for hospitals at the moment. The issue is that 0.8 turns into 1.05 quite easily.

    I don't want to do this all over again. At this point a 5 weeks is not much to ask to get security - at that point we will (the fuckwits willing) have the over 50s done to a high level - including getting areas such as Newham to a better state....
    Even if it turns to 1.05 that's still low numbers as we're operating from a low base. It isn't going to turn to 1.4 or 1.5 again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577

    Cyclefree said:

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    It's a non-job.
    He'll still need the right to work. It may be a non-job, but they will be paying him is non-imaginary-money.

    If it's anything like the banks, it is another example of how money and influence works in the US. Quite simply, if you are working for a powerful enough entity in the US, they can sort you out working status in day or so.
    It’s a valid question though. Presumably he arrived on some sort of diplomatic visa which doesn’t permit ‘work’ in the usual sense of the word. Someone must have agreed some sort of working visa for him.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    edited March 24
    I suppose "the truth" isn't an option as an explanation?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 39,928
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looking at images of that stuck ship, and diagrams of the canal, it’s very, *very* stuck indeed.

    It’s also an awful lot bigger than you think it is - it’s 400m long and 57m wide, weighs 220,000 tonnes, one of the largest vessels afloat.

    They’re going to have to dredge plenty of canal out of the way, and probably take off hundreds of containers.

    My prediction - 10 days to clear it, about the same time as the shipping diversion around Africa. Time to fill up your car with petrol.

    What I don’t understand is how Captain Frank Spencer did it? I’ve never skippered a supertanker myself but it feels like at a certain point in the turn you’d think “hmmm, maybe not, I’ll never clear that”.
    It sounds like they had a power failure, rather than were trying to turn around. Vessels in canals and ports also have a local “Pilot” on board, who’s in charge of the vessel through their stretch of water.
    As I said earlier the ship was hit by gale force winds and on the assumption it also had engine failure than those are the perfect ingredients to cause this shipping nightmare
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012

    I suppose "the truth" isn't an option as an explanation?
    No
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 39,928
    He has got one thing right.

    The international creditability of the EU is at stake
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,850

    This was foreseen - there is the gap between getting the most at risk groups vaccinated and getting to herd immunity levels.

    We are at 40%+ of all people having one vaccination.

    Israel is at 60%+ - which is at the lower bounds of herd immunity effect.

    In this gap, people are already saying "Isn't it over yet?"

    No, it isn't. Hence the roadmap.

    The deal between the public and govt was suspension of people's rights to stop the NHS being overloaded with covid patients. The last month has been the first persistent breach of that deal by the government. Bring in the outdoor rule of six now - its de facto in place for anything that doesnt require businesses to be involved already.

    Ive slipped from entirely in January to mostly now, and will slip to sometimes in the spring if the numbers keep dropping and the govt dont bring forward their plans.
    As suggested on pb days ago, there ought to have been a quid pro quo for getting the needle, such as freedom to meet others or visit care homes -- partly because such informal loosening was bound to happen anyway.

    The government needs to get ahead of the game. It must regain control by reopening what is safe, before the public takes matters into its own hands and resumes unsafe activities. The previously issued roadmap is too cautious in places but also too arbitrary. Why is the government threatening drone strikes on sunbathers when outdoor transmission (and most of Britain's beaches are outdoors) is almost unheard of?
    Think the drone was a joke...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Genuine question: what right does Prince Harry have to work in the USA? Does he have a right to work by virtue of being married to an American? Does he need a visa?

    I've always been curious.

    It's a non-job.
    He'll still need the right to work. It may be a non-job, but they will be paying him is non-imaginary-money.

    If it's anything like the banks, it is another example of how money and influence works in the US. Quite simply, if you are working for a powerful enough entity in the US, they can sort you out working status in day or so.
    It’s a valid question though. Presumably he arrived on some sort of diplomatic visa which doesn’t permit ‘work’ in the usual sense of the word. Someone must have agreed some sort of working visa for him.
    I've seen people get full working status in the US very rapidly - not sure of the legal manoeuvres, but in the banks, it is almost as if they have a stack of blank green cards in HR.

    Someone will have signed off his paperwork, probably a while back.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    I listened to Carra’s interview on the brilliant ‘Quickly Kevin’ podcast yesterday. Absolutely fantastic. Amazing how he went from mad Everton fan to now hoping they lose!

    Highly recommended.

    Anyway.,

    https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1374670760195858439?s=21
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 2,908
    If Pfizer exports to us (and Israel) are blocked, retaliation is a must. This will set the tone for the future near-term EU-UK relationship, and rolling over isn't going to be good for us.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,944
    Cyclefree said:

    Of course they can explain. It's just they don't want to because the answer would be embarrassing for them. So they're going to try and harm the population of another country to cover up their embarrassment, even if that results in some of those people dying or becoming ill.

    It is shameful and indefensible.
    It may be shameful and indefensible, but just in terms of people dying or becoming ill: if you could manage to take vaccines out of the arms of healthy 45 year old people in Britain and into the arms of 75 year old people in Spain, wouldn't you actually be saving lives?

    (without starting a vaccine war...)
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