Had vaccine at Dugdale Centre in Enfield this afternoon - wasn't terrible but not great either.
A full hour from arrival until actually vaccinated. Three completely separate check-in processes:
1) 20 minute wait outside to get into building (15 people in queue). Person checked booking reference at the door.
2) Then waited 5 minutes to go to a desk where checked-in properly. Took about 5 minutes. Basic admin questions.
3) Then stood in queue for 5 minutes to get into what I thought was vaccine area - once inside then another 10 minutes sitting waiting to be called.
4) Then called into pod to see a nurse who to my amazement said she wasn't actually doing the vaccine - just a much longer series of questions - both admin and medical. Took 10 minutes but I think I was far quicker than most people at this stage.
5) At long last walk through to actual vaccine area - where there are 6 pods - done immediately as only 3 pods in use - 3 other people just standing around waiting to do vaccines!!!
Bloke who did me seemed unaware there was such a huge queue to get to end of process.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
I love changing headlines. Earlier today there was one on the BBC entitled 'Is AZ safe?' (or thereabouts), the answer to which was yes in the story, but now what I think is the same story is headlines on the main page as 'Is Europe's Oxford jab decision making flawed?'
Amusingly either headline is interchangeably a QTWAIY.
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
The direction of travel is clear, any difference today will be the difference between 95% and 98% complete come June.
Anyway, today's jab figures are for Sunday. The time for serious doubt about the long-awaited surge is if we get to Wednesday or Thursday and a big jump still hasn't happened, I would've thought.
These aren’t surge numbers, when controlling for the day of the week. It might come, it should come, it probably will come. But it certainly hasn’t come yet. And we have a lot of catching up to do. March so far has been poor.
My guess is that the government wants groups 1-9 complete by next Monday so that when we unlock on 12/4 all of them have some level of immunity. I think there are around 3-4m left to do.
Monday might now be pushing it - the NHS England booking website it still stubbornly stuck at age 55 and over - but if (pray God) the surge does get properly underway by mid-week then they shouldn't be that far off.
They may still be able to get as far down as around age 45 for opening up online booking by Easter.
Guys, I know you're all getting excited, and I agree that this is a major clusterfuck which will cost many lives, but it isn't actually anything to do with the EU. The EMA is the body being sensible here. It is individual states, some in the EU but some outside the EU, who are acting irrationally. And it's mostly not politicians, either.
I wonder if the EU will start asking for vaccination passports and insist that the vaccine used is recorded.
They could and I'm sure member states like Greece and Spain will be thrilled that hundreds of thousand of British tourists won't be coming after all......
Astra is being suspended over safety fears, not efficacy. If you're letting other people into your country then you shouldn't give a monkeys about safety concerns over vaccines, only efficacy (As we may well do with Sputnik). So a ban on people entering with Astra would be illogical in the extreme - safety is only a concern for your OWN vaccination program. Then again this is the EU.
So. Is it fair to say that the vaccine numbers haven't been accelerating lately?
And is it also fair to say that we are working our way through the population to younger age groups surprisingly quickly?
If those things are both true, how are they to be squared? The only answer I can think of is a high number of people refusing to take the vaccine.
On Cyclefree's excellent thread, depressing and predictable. No doubt Johnson believes in freedom the same way he believes in monogamy. Coming from this Home secretary it is no surprise.
I assume, in addition to all the comment on the crazy application of the "precautionary principle" in Europe (Macron even said that France was suspending pending advice from the EMA - which has advised carrying on!) i assume there's been comment on Italy and it's ridiculous legal processes? No doubt we've seen examples in the past of things like investigating geologists for failing to predict earthquakes, but confiscating 400,000 vaccines pending investigation into a death. In the middle of a pandemic! OK so they've suspended its use anyway, but if that sort of thing is going to happen then Italy may as well give up now.
And frankly, if i was a vaccine manufacturer, i think i would refuse to allow any of the product to be used in the country.
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
I do sometimes wonder what your field of expertise is.
Anyhow, to state the obvious, all vaccines kill someone. That is how vaccines work.
Smallpox was eradicated, but the smallpox vaccine killed many people. For every one million people vaccinated with smallpox vaccine, ~70 suffered serious complications, and at least one died. The smallpox vaccine could be deadly, but it was not as deadly as smallpox, which killed 1 in 3.
The coronavirus vaccines will kill a very small number of people.
If you want zero risk, then you will have to find another method to eliminate coronavirus other than vaccination.
So. Is it fair to say that the vaccine numbers haven't been accelerating lately?
And is it also fair to say that we are working our way through the population to younger age groups surprisingly quickly?
If those things are both true, how are they to be squared? The only answer I can think of is a high number of people refusing to take the vaccine.
On Cyclefree's excellent thread, depressing and predictable. No doubt Johnson believes in freedom the same way he believes in monogamy. Coming from this Home secretary it is no surprise.
The take up rate in the various groups is very very high. I've created a spreadsheet down to the MSOA level for England - nearly 7K areas. Uploaded here -
So. Is it fair to say that the vaccine numbers haven't been accelerating lately?
And is it also fair to say that we are working our way through the population to younger age groups surprisingly quickly?
If those things are both true, how are they to be squared? The only answer I can think of is a high number of people refusing to take the vaccine.
On Cyclefree's excellent thread, depressing and predictable. No doubt Johnson believes in freedom the same way he believes in monogamy. Coming from this Home secretary it is no surprise.
They have been accelerating, just look at the number from the last two days.
So. Is it fair to say that the vaccine numbers haven't been accelerating lately?
And is it also fair to say that we are working our way through the population to younger age groups surprisingly quickly?
If those things are both true, how are they to be squared? The only answer I can think of is a high number of people refusing to take the vaccine.
On Cyclefree's excellent thread, depressing and predictable. No doubt Johnson believes in freedom the same way he believes in monogamy. Coming from this Home secretary it is no surprise.
Think the explanation is as follows. The website has been stuck at 55 years old for a while. A substantial number of people under that age with underlying conditions are being done now. Very frustrating for a healthy 54 year old.
Sigh. My wife has been having a problem with a kidney stone. She has just been told to come into hospital tonight so they can operate tomorrow. She was due to finally get her vaccination on Thursday. Roughly 2/3 of all Scottish infections have come through hospitals.
At 60 she really should have been vaccinated weeks ago so that she would have some protection. I am not happy. Not at all.
Commiserations to the good lady on the kidney stone. Trust me, she won't be giving a shiny shit about anything other than getting rid of it. Bastard painful things.
She's been down this road before many times unfortunately. Son started back at school today too so no risk there! Life comes at you fast sometimes.
Has she not been able to isolate the purine triggers in her diet?
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
That is an argument for further investigation. It is not an argument for suspension. It might be how things work in a trial, when time is not of the essence. But every moment of delay means deaths of many magnitudes the identified risk, even if real.
I get that perhaps the counter argument is that much of Europe is only using AZ for younger people. So the risk is only of prevention of spread and delay of release from lockdowns. But even these are potentially very serious matters. Meanwhile the undermining of overall confidence in the vaccine worldwide could be catastrophic. What if the COVAX programme starts rejecting it? This is (currently anyway) the vaccine that is going to vaccinate the world.
So. Is it fair to say that the vaccine numbers haven't been accelerating lately?
And is it also fair to say that we are working our way through the population to younger age groups surprisingly quickly?
If those things are both true, how are they to be squared? The only answer I can think of is a high number of people refusing to take the vaccine.
On Cyclefree's excellent thread, depressing and predictable. No doubt Johnson believes in freedom the same way he believes in monogamy. Coming from this Home secretary it is no surprise.
Think the explanation is as follows. The website has been stuck at 55 years old for a while. A substantial number of people under that age with underlying conditions are being done now. Very frustrating for a healthy 54 year old.
Yes, my wife 45 (46 tomorrow) with mild asthma was done yesterday.
Hang on, if no aircraft is allowed to fly within 3 nautical miles, how will they be able to fly above 6,000 ft within 3 nautical miles?
It's a bit weird that this allegedly astonishing pillar of our defence is concerned about light aircraft nearby. It's also no way to train in that in real-world situations they're likely to have all sorts of stuff in the airspace.
We should be saying something like - if you get within 20m then we'll shoot you down - it doesn't matter if you're a flying oil rig - 20m is enough!
So. Is it fair to say that the vaccine numbers haven't been accelerating lately?
And is it also fair to say that we are working our way through the population to younger age groups surprisingly quickly?
If those things are both true, how are they to be squared? The only answer I can think of is a high number of people refusing to take the vaccine.
On Cyclefree's excellent thread, depressing and predictable. No doubt Johnson believes in freedom the same way he believes in monogamy. Coming from this Home secretary it is no surprise.
Think the explanation is as follows. The website has been stuck at 55 years old for a while. A substantial number of people under that age with underlying conditions are being done now. Very frustrating for a healthy 54 year old.
Yes, my wife 45 (46 tomorrow) with mild asthma was done yesterday.
Hang on, if no aircraft is allowed to fly within 3 nautical miles, how will they be able to fly above 6,000 ft within 3 nautical miles?
It's a bit weird that this allegedly astonishing pillar of our defence is concerned about light aircraft nearby. It's also no way to train in that in real-world situations they're likely to have all sorts of stuff in the airspace.
We should be saying something like - if you get within 20m then we'll shoot you down - it doesn't matter if you're a flying oil rig - 20m is enough!
So. Is it fair to say that the vaccine numbers haven't been accelerating lately?
And is it also fair to say that we are working our way through the population to younger age groups surprisingly quickly?
If those things are both true, how are they to be squared? The only answer I can think of is a high number of people refusing to take the vaccine.
On Cyclefree's excellent thread, depressing and predictable. No doubt Johnson believes in freedom the same way he believes in monogamy. Coming from this Home secretary it is no surprise.
Think the explanation is as follows. The website has been stuck at 55 years old for a while. A substantial number of people under that age with underlying conditions are being done now. Very frustrating for a healthy 54 year old.
My mother's GP practice was really struggling to fill slots in the latest vaccine round (they were scheduled to do the 60+ etc). So they rang all around their 55+ patients - but virtually all were already booked in to the mass vacc centres! So they moved to the 54 year olds. Needless to say they were pleased!
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
That is an argument for further investigation. It is not an argument for suspension. It might be how things work in a trial, when time is not of the essence. But every moment of delay means deaths of many magnitudes the identified risk, even if real.
I get that perhaps the counter argument is that much of Europe is only using AZ for younger people. So the risk is only of prevention of spread and delay of release from lockdowns. But even these are potentially very serious matters. Meanwhile the undermining of overall confidence in the vaccine worldwide could be catastrophic. What if the COVAX programme starts rejecting it? This is (currently anyway) the vaccine that is going to vaccinate the world.
The WHO are absolutely livid. The UK is actually on the side of the EMA and the WHO against a group of individual EU member states. Which is somewhat ironic.
Hang on, if no aircraft is allowed to fly within 3 nautical miles, how will they be able to fly above 6,000 ft within 3 nautical miles?
It's a bit weird that this allegedly astonishing pillar of our defence is concerned about light aircraft nearby. It's also no way to train in that in real-world situations they're likely to have all sorts of stuff in the airspace.
We should be saying something like - if you get within 20m then we'll shoot you down - it doesn't matter if you're a flying oil rig - 20m is enough!
I take it you mean 20 metres not twenty miles?
I did. I'm trying to wean myself off all non metric units.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
"The prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis is generally favourable"
So they've stopped distributing a life saving vaccine during a plague because.... there's a 1 in 100,000 chance you will suffer a headache-like complaint which is generally non-fatal.
Genius
Forget Covid - there is a huge undiagnosed outbreak of the highly contagious Stoopid Virus, sweeping across Europe.
Hang on, if no aircraft is allowed to fly within 3 nautical miles, how will they be able to fly above 6,000 ft within 3 nautical miles?
It's a bit weird that this allegedly astonishing pillar of our defence is concerned about light aircraft nearby. It's also no way to train in that in real-world situations they're likely to have all sorts of stuff in the airspace.
We should be saying something like - if you get within 20m then we'll shoot you down - it doesn't matter if you're a flying oil rig - 20m is enough!
I take it you mean 20 metres not twenty miles?
I did. I'm trying to wean myself off all non metric units.
So. Is it fair to say that the vaccine numbers haven't been accelerating lately?
And is it also fair to say that we are working our way through the population to younger age groups surprisingly quickly?
If those things are both true, how are they to be squared? The only answer I can think of is a high number of people refusing to take the vaccine.
On Cyclefree's excellent thread, depressing and predictable. No doubt Johnson believes in freedom the same way he believes in monogamy. Coming from this Home secretary it is no surprise.
Think the explanation is as follows. The website has been stuck at 55 years old for a while. A substantial number of people under that age with underlying conditions are being done now. Very frustrating for a healthy 54 year old.
Yes, my wife 45 (46 tomorrow) with mild asthma was done yesterday.
Happy birthday to Mrs Seal for tomorrow.
I keep counting the days until I can be done.
If you teachers will insist on disrespecting Gavin Williamson you will just keep dropping down that list!
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
[snip]
The only way in which it would make sense to suspend the use of AZ is if those 7 cases have all happened very recently, i.e. if it isn't 7 out of the full 1.6m, but 7 out of a much smaller number (those vaccinated in the last few days). It's unclear whether that's what is meant by "the Paul Ehrlich Institute, said it had suddenly (since Thurs) noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of a rare kind of blood clot on the brain, cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) in people who'd just had the vaccine". If they do mean that this is something specific to the last few days, then I suppose the hypothesis that it's a particular batch would be something they'd have to consider.
Hang on, if no aircraft is allowed to fly within 3 nautical miles, how will they be able to fly above 6,000 ft within 3 nautical miles?
They mean there's a cylinder of prohibited airspace 3 nautical miles around the ship and up to 6,000ft high.
It's possible there might be further rules for aircraft within the 3 nautical mile zone that aren't on a prearranged flight path (say, a landing flight path that's at 10,000ft to 9,000ft overhead) that's notified to HMS Queen Elizabeth, so Police Scotland have just phrased it badly.
Last April, my colleague Adam Houldsworth interviewed Oxford University Innovation CEO Adam Stoten about OUI's patent licensing policy on the back of promising news concerning the potential development of a covid-19 vaccine by researchers at the university. Some of you may remember I posted a link on here when it was in front of our paywall (it's not anymore).
A short time later Oxford signed a deal with Astra Zeneca to ensure widespread manufacture and roll-out of the vaccine were it to get regulatory approval. Of course, it did and today I received my first AZ/Oxford jab. I waited in a quiet queue for 10 minutes, then went into a cubicle and in 30 seconds it was all done.
I remember editing Adam's article and putting it live, thinking there is no way that this is going to be ready for a long, long time - if at all. And now look at where we are. It is a quite magnificent achievement by the researchers, by the tech transfer professionals, by the manufacturers, by the regulators, by the NHS and everyone else involved.
From terrible darkness, we now have immense hope. The spirit and the enterprise behind the great, cross-border, collaborative work of the last few months should be bottled and applied to other emergencies. It can be done, so let's do it. Climate change anyone?
Thanks to all the PB-ers who gave advice at the weekend.
I finally managed to get hold of my GP, and now have a vaccination booked at the local place (which I can get to easily on my mobility scooter) this coming Saturday; that seems a better option than the mass vax centre (which I can only get to by risking taxi journeys) immediately. My best guess as to why they didn't contact me earlier is either a) incompetence or b) perhaps my consultant put me on the group 6 list and my GP didn't know.
I'm looking forward to seeing students again, when it's allowed, albeit in very small groups and masked as per my institution's regulations.
(I also moved my dentist appointment back a couple of weeks, as it seemed unnecessary to risk infection when likely-immunity is just around the corner. It's nice to have light at the end of the tunnel.)
Very belatedly on topic, I have some sympathy with the intent of parts of the legislation. For example, the mass occupation of roads, bridges and tube stations by Extinction Rebellion in 2019 went beyond reasonable protest in my view, was deliberately obstructive, and stretched the resources of the police to the limit, but their powers to lessen the impact were circumscribed - current test is very high: "serious public disorder, serious damage to property or serious disruption to the life of the community" - and they were frustrated they couldn't do more. Ordinary Londoners had a nightmare getting to work and going about their daily lives.
The issue is whether the police use these powers proportionately and properly, and on the law of unintended consequences, and it'd be on that front that I'd have concerns.
Last April, my colleague Adam Houldsworth interviewed Oxford University Innovation CEO Adam Stoten about OUI's patent licensing policy on the back of promising news concerning the potential development of a covid-19 vaccine by researchers at the university. Some of you may remember I posted a link on here when it was in front of our paywall (it's not anymore).
A short time later Oxford signed a deal with Astra Zeneca to ensure widespread manufacture and roll-out of the vaccine were it to get regulatory approval. Of course, it did and today I received my first AZ/Oxford jab. I waited in a quiet queue for 10 minutes, then went into a cubicle and in 30 seconds it was all done.
I remember editing Adam's article and putting it live, thinking there is no way that this is going to be ready for a long, long time - if at all. And now look at where we are. It is a quite magnificent achievement by the researchers, by the tech transfer professionals, by the manufacturers, by the regulators, by the NHS and everyone else involved.
From terrible darkness, we now have immense hope. The spirit and the enterprise behind the great, cross-border, collaborative work of the last few months should be bottled and applied to other emergencies. It can be done, so let's do it. Climate change anyone?
Why bother? The Germans will suspend it, because a weasel coughed near Stuttgart
Thanks to all the PB-ers who gave advice at the weekend.
I finally managed to get hold of my GP, and now have a vaccination booked at the local place (which I can get to easily on my mobility scooter) this coming Saturday; that seems a better option than the mass vax centre (which I can only get to by risking taxi journeys) immediately. My best guess as to why they didn't contact me earlier is either a) incompetence or b) perhaps my consultant put me on the group 6 list and my GP didn't know.
I'm looking forward to seeing students again, when it's allowed, albeit in very small groups and masked as per my institution's regulations.
(I also moved my dentist appointment back a couple of weeks, as it seemed unnecessary to risk infection when likely-immunity is just around the corner. It's nice to have light at the end of the tunnel.)
--AS
Excellent.
One thing I learnt from my wife, who coming from abroad, has no inhibitions about asking questions and rescheduling things, is that the NHS quite often needs a subtle prod or 2 from it's customers.
And, of course, if you go down a long list of hundreds of possible conditions, then for about one in a hundred of them you will randomly get elevated outcomes that you would only expect to see one in a hundred times.
Which won’t stop people claiming that they’re linked.
Catching up with the required rate. We have been through this endlessly now. Today’s numbers aren’t good enough. This is when controlling for the day of the week.
They might come, they should come, but they aren’t there yet.
Very belatedly on topic, I have some sympathy with the intent of parts of the legislation. For example, the mass occupation of roads, bridges and tube stations by Extinction Rebellion in 2019 went beyond reasonable protest in my view, was deliberately obstructive, and stretched the resources of the police to the limit, but their powers to lessen the impact were circumscribed - current test is very high: "serious public disorder, serious damage to property or serious disruption to the life of the community" - and they were frustrated they couldn't do more. Ordinary Londoners had a nightmare getting to work and going about their daily lives.
The issue is whether the police use these powers proportionately and properly, and on the law of unintended consequences, and it'd be on that front that I'd have concerns.
Yes, I agree with that. What this bill really needs is proper parliamentary scrutiny, which it's probably not going to get.
In other news, as my son is severely autistic and seriously learning disabled: - He has been offered a jab on Wednesday this week (Pfizer, as he’s 17 and that’s the only one cleared for 16-18 - As I’m closely involved in caring for him, I’ve been offered a jab on Thursday (as I’m 48, it’s probably only a couple of weeks earlier than otherwise).
Mine is Astrazeneca, and I’ve felt zero hesitation and happily accepting.
Emmanuel Macron said that French authorities have decided to suspend shots at least until Tuesday afternoon, when the European Medicines Agency will issue its recommendation over the vaccine.
Spain has suspended use of the vaccine for at least two weeks after one case of thrombosis in a vaccinated person who required treatment over the weekend
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
Is that incidence rate calculated across the same demographics as those receiving the vaccine? I think the UK figures were controlled for that.
A cynical German lady has quite rightly pointed out that German women are expected to tolerate a vastly higher risk of thrombosis when they take the contraceptive pill - 1 in 1000 rather than 1 in 100,000
I'm betting it isn't a British contraceptive pill though......
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
Is that incidence rate calculated across the same demographics as those receiving the vaccine? I think the UK figures were controlled for that.
A cynical German lady has quite rightly pointed out that German women are expected to tolerate a vastly higher risk of thrombosis when they take the contraceptive pill - 1 in 1000 rather than 1 in 100,000
I'm betting it isn't a British contraceptive pill though......
That was exactly the thought that went through my mind.....
I do wonder what happens if the uk unlocks fully on june 21st and most of europe is still in lockdown due to lack of vaccination. I suspect that is when we might seeing some kickback from populations in eu countries
Last April, my colleague Adam Houldsworth interviewed Oxford University Innovation CEO Adam Stoten about OUI's patent licensing policy on the back of promising news concerning the potential development of a covid-19 vaccine by researchers at the university. Some of you may remember I posted a link on here when it was in front of our paywall (it's not anymore).
A short time later Oxford signed a deal with Astra Zeneca to ensure widespread manufacture and roll-out of the vaccine were it to get regulatory approval. Of course, it did and today I received my first AZ/Oxford jab. I waited in a quiet queue for 10 minutes, then went into a cubicle and in 30 seconds it was all done.
I remember editing Adam's article and putting it live, thinking there is no way that this is going to be ready for a long, long time - if at all. And now look at where we are. It is a quite magnificent achievement by the researchers, by the tech transfer professionals, by the manufacturers, by the regulators, by the NHS and everyone else involved.
From terrible darkness, we now have immense hope. The spirit and the enterprise behind the great, cross-border, collaborative work of the last few months should be bottled and applied to other emergencies. It can be done, so let's do it. Climate change anyone?
A great display of British leadership, which we will hopefully build on later this year with climate change.
In other news, as my son is severely autistic and seriously learning disabled: - He has been offered a jab on Wednesday this week (Pfizer, as he’s 17 and that’s the only one cleared for 16-18 - As I’m closely involved in caring for him, I’ve been offered a jab on Thursday (as I’m 48, it’s probably only a couple of weeks earlier than otherwise).
Mine is Astrazeneca, and I’ve felt zero hesitation and happily accepting.
I had AZ, and likewise. No problemo
You walk out of the jab HQ feeling a few inches taller. It's like they inject you with optimism. Finally
I do wonder what happens if the uk unlocks fully on june 21st and most of europe is still in lockdown due to lack of vaccination. I suspect that is when we might seeing some kickback from populations in eu countries
It has occurred to me that we could come under pressure to remain locked down out of solidarity. But then I was unaware that most of Europe was out of lockdown.
Catching up with the required rate. We have been through this endlessly now. Today’s numbers aren’t good enough. This is when controlling for the day of the week.
They might come, they should come, but they aren’t there yet.
In other news, as my son is severely autistic and seriously learning disabled: - He has been offered a jab on Wednesday this week (Pfizer, as he’s 17 and that’s the only one cleared for 16-18 - As I’m closely involved in caring for him, I’ve been offered a jab on Thursday (as I’m 48, it’s probably only a couple of weeks earlier than otherwise).
Mine is Astrazeneca, and I’ve felt zero hesitation and happily accepting.
I had AZ, and likewise. No problemo
You walk out of the jab HQ feeling a few inches taller. It's like they inject you with optimism. Finally
If I walked out of the jab HQ then it would really be a miracle drug ; )
I do wonder what happens if the uk unlocks fully on june 21st and most of europe is still in lockdown due to lack of vaccination. I suspect that is when we might seeing some kickback from populations in eu countries
It has occurred to me that we could come under pressure to remain locked down out of solidarity. But then I was unaware that most of Europe was out of lockdown.
A lot of europe apparently is heading into a new wave, as far as I am aware most major european countries like germany,france and italy are still in some form of lockdown.
I think pictures of brits enjoying normal life and meeting down the pub might cause a few europeans to wonder what their governements have been playing at if they are still in the "Fill out a form to leave the house" stage
I do wonder what happens if the uk unlocks fully on june 21st and most of europe is still in lockdown due to lack of vaccination. I suspect that is when we might seeing some kickback from populations in eu countries
The EU will announce vaccine passports for UK holidaymakers. But will exclude Oxford-AstraZeneca.
WW1? I always think it's rather nice to have international roots. Mine just equate to 1/8th Scottish. I'd like to have more really. I have a friend who's got a huge chunk of Zulu - now that's an ancestry!
Thanks to all the PB-ers who gave advice at the weekend.
I finally managed to get hold of my GP, and now have a vaccination booked at the local place (which I can get to easily on my mobility scooter) this coming Saturday; that seems a better option than the mass vax centre (which I can only get to by risking taxi journeys) immediately. My best guess as to why they didn't contact me earlier is either a) incompetence or b) perhaps my consultant put me on the group 6 list and my GP didn't know.
I'm looking forward to seeing students again, when it's allowed, albeit in very small groups and masked as per my institution's regulations.
(I also moved my dentist appointment back a couple of weeks, as it seemed unnecessary to risk infection when likely-immunity is just around the corner. It's nice to have light at the end of the tunnel.)
In other news, as my son is severely autistic and seriously learning disabled: - He has been offered a jab on Wednesday this week (Pfizer, as he’s 17 and that’s the only one cleared for 16-18 - As I’m closely involved in caring for him, I’ve been offered a jab on Thursday (as I’m 48, it’s probably only a couple of weeks earlier than otherwise).
Mine is Astrazeneca, and I’ve felt zero hesitation and happily accepting.
I had AZ, and likewise. No problemo
You walk out of the jab HQ feeling a few inches taller. It's like they inject you with optimism. Finally
If I had a free preference, then based on the hospitalisation efficacy figures from real-life data (and immunologists commenting on how adenovector vaccines seem to keep increasing in efficacy for months) and the Imperial College study about mixing adenovector and RNA vaccines, I’d want an AZ first and a Pfizer as a booster 12 weeks later.
But as long as I get any of the approved vaccines, I’m happy (even if I have a teeny tiny preference for AZ as the first jab at least)
Reflecting on my vaccination experience last Friday, it was like voting in a local council by-election in a safe seat in mid summer at 11am.
Not exactly busy.
Was this because of limited supply last week ? I'm going to assume so because Excel has the capacity to vaccinate hundreds per hour so why wasn't I in a queue of eager people looking forward to being injected with liquid optimism (@Leon)?
Meanwhile parts of Europe are enthusiastically using (and pressure growing elsewhere) the Russian Sputnik vaccine.
Which hasn't got EMA approval, and the British Government believes is essentially the Ox-AZ vaccine produced on the basis of illegally acquired information...
Germany is averaging 50-150 deaths a day at the moment. This will come down, but more slowly now. Let's say the average through this extra month is 30 deaths a day (conservatively). Adding a month to the vaccine roll-out, thanks to the AZ suspension, therefore means 1000 dead Germans and 5000 in ICU who would not otherwise have died or gone into ICU, and many more with Long Covid. Plus more economic pain
That is the literal cost of this policy. For a generally non-fatal complication which - if it affects 1 in 200,000 jabbed, and Germany eventually gives, say, 20m AZ jabs, means 100 people with CVST and maybe 10-15 dead
Simple cost benefit.
1000 dead and 5000 in hospital.... versus 15 dead and 100 in hospital. And that is IF there really is a causal link, which is far from certain. One of the strangest decisions I have ever seen in an advanced nation.
I do wonder what happens if the uk unlocks fully on june 21st and most of europe is still in lockdown due to lack of vaccination. I suspect that is when we might seeing some kickback from populations in eu countries
The EU will announce vaccine passports for UK holidaymakers. But will exclude Oxford-AstraZeneca.
Why would that influence european populations, if I was for example sitting in my house in france grumbling as I fill out an online form so I could leave my house for a trip to the supermarket while seeing pics of brits partying like its 2018 then I might just be going what the fuck went wrong with my government. I would not be saying "ha well at least the brits cant go on holiday to magaluf either"
I do wonder what happens if the uk unlocks fully on june 21st and most of europe is still in lockdown due to lack of vaccination. I suspect that is when we might seeing some kickback from populations in eu countries
It has occurred to me that we could come under pressure to remain locked down out of solidarity. But then I was unaware that most of Europe was out of lockdown.
A lot of europe apparently is heading into a new wave, as far as I am aware most major european countries like germany,france and italy are still in some form of lockdown.
I think pictures of brits enjoying normal life and meeting down the pub might cause a few europeans to wonder what their governements have been playing at if they are still in the "Fill out a form to leave the house" stage
Not unlike us watching Australia and New Zealand...
As of 9th March – 22 cases of thromboembolic events had been reported among the 3 million people vaccinated with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca in the European Economic Area
Of those 22 cases there were 2 deaths. In 3 million.
I do wonder what happens if the uk unlocks fully on june 21st and most of europe is still in lockdown due to lack of vaccination. I suspect that is when we might seeing some kickback from populations in eu countries
It has occurred to me that we could come under pressure to remain locked down out of solidarity. But then I was unaware that most of Europe was out of lockdown.
A lot of europe apparently is heading into a new wave, as far as I am aware most major european countries like germany,france and italy are still in some form of lockdown.
I think pictures of brits enjoying normal life and meeting down the pub might cause a few europeans to wonder what their governements have been playing at if they are still in the "Fill out a form to leave the house" stage
Not unlike us watching Australia and New Zealand...
With the difference being we couldnt really emulate what they did.....whereas europe could absolutely emulate what we did
On topic, a magnificent piece by @Cyclefree, and in essence one of the many reasons I could never vote Conservative or Labour (I say Labour because that party has an excellent track record for authoritarian measures and were it in power in the current situation I suspect it would be coming forward with something similar).
This is symptomatic of every time there is a public order incident or a terror attack - Patel is no different to May or to Blunkett or to Straw - we clamour for the Home Secretary to "do something" and because we are so scared we sign away a little more of our freedom in the name of the notion of safety and security.
I said a few days ago the coronavirus was like a terrorist attack and the Government's response is in so many ways reminiscent of how it has responded to every terrorist outrage. A bit more security, a bit more State, a bit more law, a bit more control, a bit less freedom, a bit less liberty, a bit less accountability, a bit less security.
Unfortunately, as I've often said and history has proved so often, if you make people scared enough whether it's of a terrorist or a virus, they will agree to anything and once that is enshrined in law, it seems to hang around. At what point is this Prime Minister, who claims to be a lover of freedom, going to make a bonfire of the security, surveillance and control powers enjoyed by the Government?
On topic, a magnificent piece by @Cyclefree, and in essence one of the many reasons I could never vote Conservative or Labour (I say Labour because that party has an excellent track record for authoritarian measures and were it in power in the current situation I suspect it would be coming forward with something similar).
This is symptomatic of every time there is a public order incident or a terror attack - Patel is no different to May or to Blunkett or to Straw - we clamour for the Home Secretary to "do something" and because we are so scared we sign away a little more of our freedom in the name of the notion of safety and security.
I said a few days ago the coronavirus was like a terrorist attack and the Government's response is in so many ways reminiscent of how it has responded to every terrorist outrage. A bit more security, a bit more State, a bit more law, a bit more control, a bit less freedom, a bit less liberty, a bit less accountability, a bit less security.
Unfortunately, as I've often said and history has proved so often, if you make people scared enough whether it's of a terrorist or a virus, they will agree to anything and once that is enshrined in law, it seems to hang around. At what point is this Prime Minister, who claims to be a lover of freedom, going to make a bonfire of the security, surveillance and control powers enjoyed by the Government?
Unfortunately far too many people happily shovel their information at anyone that will take it and therefore don't really see it as bad. Something I don't do and am often made fun of for here. Yet a lot of those making fun of me then wonder how bills like this dont get people worked up
Comments
A full hour from arrival until actually vaccinated. Three completely separate check-in processes:
1) 20 minute wait outside to get into building (15 people in queue). Person checked booking reference at the door.
2) Then waited 5 minutes to go to a desk where checked-in properly. Took about 5 minutes. Basic admin questions.
3) Then stood in queue for 5 minutes to get into what I thought was vaccine area - once inside then another 10 minutes sitting waiting to be called.
4) Then called into pod to see a nurse who to my amazement said she wasn't actually doing the vaccine - just a much longer series of questions - both admin and medical. Took 10 minutes but I think I was far quicker than most people at this stage.
5) At long last walk through to actual vaccine area - where there are 6 pods - done immediately as only 3 pods in use - 3 other people just standing around waiting to do vaccines!!!
Bloke who did me seemed unaware there was such a huge queue to get to end of process.
Doing it the way Comedy Dave has done it makes it look like its simply suspended or no data available.
Seems a while since it last was.
"Mortality ranks between 5.5% and 18%"
They may still be able to get as far down as around age 45 for opening up online booking by Easter.
Then again this is the EU.
And is it also fair to say that we are working our way through the population to younger age groups surprisingly quickly?
If those things are both true, how are they to be squared? The only answer I can think of is a high number of people refusing to take the vaccine.
On Cyclefree's excellent thread, depressing and predictable. No doubt Johnson believes in freedom the same way he believes in monogamy. Coming from this Home secretary it is no surprise.
And frankly, if i was a vaccine manufacturer, i think i would refuse to allow any of the product to be used in the country.
Anyhow, to state the obvious, all vaccines kill someone. That is how vaccines work.
Smallpox was eradicated, but the smallpox vaccine killed many people. For every one million people vaccinated with smallpox vaccine, ~70 suffered serious complications, and at least one died. The smallpox vaccine could be deadly, but it was not as deadly as smallpox, which killed 1 in 3.
The coronavirus vaccines will kill a very small number of people.
If you want zero risk, then you will have to find another method to eliminate coronavirus other than vaccination.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eiOMJVLijTAemsGJ6sYNC8jwzhLWPDs-/view?usp=sharing
It uses the NIMIS projected populations, rather than the just ONS 2019
The total numbers per age group are
18-59 - 20%
60-64 - 63%
65-69 - 86%
70-74 - 92%
75-79- 94%
80+ - 93%
The website has been stuck at 55 years old for a while.
A substantial number of people under that age with underlying conditions are being done now.
Very frustrating for a healthy 54 year old.
I get that perhaps the counter argument is that much of Europe is only using AZ for younger people. So the risk is only of prevention of spread and delay of release from lockdowns. But even these are potentially very serious matters. Meanwhile the undermining of overall confidence in the vaccine worldwide could be catastrophic. What if the COVAX programme starts rejecting it? This is (currently anyway) the vaccine that is going to vaccinate the world.
Seems to me to defeat the object.
We should be saying something like - if you get within 20m then we'll shoot you down - it doesn't matter if you're a flying oil rig - 20m is enough!
I keep counting the days until I can be done.
Would have saved loads of kerfuffle.
25*8 =200
6-5 = 1
9/1 =9
200-100 =100
100+9 = 109
https://twitter.com/daytimesnaps/status/1371504212425777157/photo/1
https://twitter.com/JohnMullahy/status/1371516255690231808
https://twitter.com/le_parisien/status/1371533433588101125?s=21
It's possible there might be further rules for aircraft within the 3 nautical mile zone that aren't on a prearranged flight path (say, a landing flight path that's at 10,000ft to 9,000ft overhead) that's notified to HMS Queen Elizabeth, so Police Scotland have just phrased it badly.
The bloke who is getting thrashed 105-12 seems to be struggling with 109 everyone else got it in first 0.1 seconds
A short time later Oxford signed a deal with Astra Zeneca to ensure widespread manufacture and roll-out of the vaccine were it to get regulatory approval. Of course, it did and today I received my first AZ/Oxford jab. I waited in a quiet queue for 10 minutes, then went into a cubicle and in 30 seconds it was all done.
I remember editing Adam's article and putting it live, thinking there is no way that this is going to be ready for a long, long time - if at all. And now look at where we are. It is a quite magnificent achievement by the researchers, by the tech transfer professionals, by the manufacturers, by the regulators, by the NHS and everyone else involved.
From terrible darkness, we now have immense hope. The spirit and the enterprise behind the great, cross-border, collaborative work of the last few months should be bottled and applied to other emergencies. It can be done, so let's do it. Climate change anyone?
I finally managed to get hold of my GP, and now have a vaccination booked at the local place (which I can get to easily on my mobility scooter) this coming Saturday; that seems a better option than the mass vax centre (which I can only get to by risking taxi journeys) immediately. My best guess as to why they didn't contact me earlier is either a) incompetence or b) perhaps my consultant put me on the group 6 list and my GP didn't know.
I'm looking forward to seeing students again, when it's allowed, albeit in very small groups and masked as per my institution's regulations.
(I also moved my dentist appointment back a couple of weeks, as it seemed unnecessary to risk infection when likely-immunity is just around the corner. It's nice to have light at the end of the tunnel.)
--AS
https://youtu.be/pfa3MHLLSWI
The issue is whether the police use these powers proportionately and properly, and on the law of unintended consequences, and it'd be on that front that I'd have concerns.
One thing I learnt from my wife, who coming from abroad, has no inhibitions about asking questions and rescheduling things, is that the NHS quite often needs a subtle prod or 2 from it's customers.
AZ were due to supply 40m, and only 11m have been injected. Out of 106m total.
That will limit jabees to between 9% and 18% by the time they have all been used.
Which won’t stop people claiming that they’re linked.
Catching up with the required rate. We have been through this endlessly now. Today’s numbers aren’t good enough. This is when controlling for the day of the week.
They might come, they should come, but they aren’t there yet.
VFM
- He has been offered a jab on Wednesday this week (Pfizer, as he’s 17 and that’s the only one cleared for 16-18
- As I’m closely involved in caring for him, I’ve been offered a jab on Thursday (as I’m 48, it’s probably only a couple of weeks earlier than otherwise).
Mine is Astrazeneca, and I’ve felt zero hesitation and happily accepting.
Spain has suspended use of the vaccine for at least two weeks after one case of thrombosis in a vaccinated person who required treatment over the weekend
Seriously??
France - until TOMORROW?
Spain - 1 person......
https://twitter.com/herrkloeckner/status/1371521956504289283?s=20
You walk out of the jab HQ feeling a few inches taller. It's like they inject you with optimism. Finally
--AS
I think pictures of brits enjoying normal life and meeting down the pub might cause a few europeans to wonder what their governements have been playing at if they are still in the "Fill out a form to leave the house" stage
But as long as I get any of the approved vaccines, I’m happy (even if I have a teeny tiny preference for AZ as the first jab at least)
Reflecting on my vaccination experience last Friday, it was like voting in a local council by-election in a safe seat in mid summer at 11am.
Not exactly busy.
Was this because of limited supply last week ? I'm going to assume so because Excel has the capacity to vaccinate hundreds per hour so why wasn't I in a queue of eager people looking forward to being injected with liquid optimism (@Leon)?
Which hasn't got EMA approval, and the British Government believes is essentially the Ox-AZ vaccine produced on the basis of illegally acquired information...
That is the literal cost of this policy. For a generally non-fatal complication which - if it affects 1 in 200,000 jabbed, and Germany eventually gives, say, 20m AZ jabs, means 100 people with CVST and maybe 10-15 dead
Simple cost benefit.
1000 dead and 5000 in hospital.... versus 15 dead and 100 in hospital. And that is IF there really is a causal link, which is far from certain. One of the strangest decisions I have ever seen in an advanced nation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/entertainment-arts-56401138
https://twitter.com/thedailymash/status/1144216999993720833?s=20
Of those 22 cases there were 2 deaths. In 3 million.
https://www.dsru.org/pharmacovigilance-evidence-review-thrombosis-following-vaccination-with-covid-19-astrazeneca-vaccine/
This is symptomatic of every time there is a public order incident or a terror attack - Patel is no different to May or to Blunkett or to Straw - we clamour for the Home Secretary to "do something" and because we are so scared we sign away a little more of our freedom in the name of the notion of safety and security.
I said a few days ago the coronavirus was like a terrorist attack and the Government's response is in so many ways reminiscent of how it has responded to every terrorist outrage. A bit more security, a bit more State, a bit more law, a bit more control, a bit less freedom, a bit less liberty, a bit less accountability, a bit less security.
Unfortunately, as I've often said and history has proved so often, if you make people scared enough whether it's of a terrorist or a virus, they will agree to anything and once that is enshrined in law, it seems to hang around. At what point is this Prime Minister, who claims to be a lover of freedom, going to make a bonfire of the security, surveillance and control powers enjoyed by the Government?
"We will not suspend vaccination with AstraZeneca as no link to thrombosis has been proven."
a key Tory area to hold for a majorityolder than average