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Yes, Lukasz Kubot lost in straight sets to Milos Raonic of CanadaPulpstar said:Are there any polls out today >?
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Half-time - Colombia 1-0 Uruguay - fantastic goal!0
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It sounds much like the London I remember from 30 years ago, though probably a higher percentage of passengers were white then. Londoners have had a reputation for rudeness that is only exceeded by Parisiens, New Yorkers and Hong Kong Chinese.
I see a fair number of Somalis in Leicester and have found them to have the rather formal manners that one encounters with most Africans. African cultures have an etiquette of their own, and generally are very polite, though often in a slightly rigid way.
I am told that there is no equivalent word for please in Cantonese and having eaten many times at the legendary Wong Kei, I believe it: http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2014/feb/24/rudest-restaurant-london-wong-kei
But while the words are different, and Chinese people speak with a rather fast cadence that can appear rude, I find that on the whole this is cultural misunderstanding rather than rudeness.
The rudeness and boorishness that I encounter is mostly of the traditional British variety. We have a culture that can be very affected in its manners and also riotously abusive in other contexts. Context is everything with manners and the rules can be arcane.Socrates said:
I take the tube every workday, and it's about 50-50 whether an elderly person gets offered their seat. Given that there are about 20 people in eyeshot of them, that means only one in forty people has decent manners. It's certainly very, very different to where I grew up. You'd be socially ostracised if you didn't give it up.NickPalmer said:Fisher basically takes the current polls and assumes gradual swingback, so when it doesn't happen the prediction gradually moves towards the current polls.
What do we think tonight's polls will have? A bump for hero Dave, a dip for for defeated Dave, or nothing very much? A small bump that reverts next week is my guess.
Not my experience, in general, and I live in a busy, multicultural area and catch the bus along the Holloway Road every day. People often stand up for each other and the general culture is to rub along, a bit self-preoccupied but civil enough. Nottingham is much the same. Think you were just unlucky and perhaps projected it onto your expectations.Socrates said:
Crowded, multicultural London is a rude, selfish place. People need to learn some bloody manners.
I also find that the Somalis are by far the rudest group in terms of pushing past people. (I have a friend who lives near a lot of them so I often get a bus with a lot on.) It's like they don't even have the concept of manners in their culture.0 -
I've been told that the NHS is choosing inappropriate long-term usage of cheap drugs and ignoring the fact that there will be nádty side effects as a result. Additionally they are moving to surgery in some cases vs expensive drugs thát could avoid procedures with a double digit mortality rateMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Smarmeron, I said 'as is'.
I support the basic principle, but I do believe without change it's unaffordable. I'm sure some backroom changes could save something, but we may also end up looking at taxing 'unhealthy' activities, having charges for self-inflicted or partially self-inflicted conditions (ie, drunk who falls over and hurts himself) and the removal of certain procedures altogether (nobody will miss tattoo removal being axed but other areas, IVF, say, would be more contentious).
I doubt much of that, perhaps excepting increased taxation, will occur. Politicians will try and muddle through, the service will worsen, and eventually it'll just collapse. Well, that's my forecast.0 -
Uruguay look OK - but they'd be better off with a truly world class #1A striker up front.
Do they have anyone like that ?0 -
Ah thankspeter_from_putney said:
Stephen Fisher uses as his base UKPR's averages of the recent polls (theirs and others'), adjusting these for a number of factors in his model, including clawback by the incumbent part of Government, a "Shy Tory" factor, etc.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, Prof Fisher has in the past been quite bullish on the Tory chances, so the fact it is getting tighter is interesting.
The reduction of around 10-12 in his forecast of Tory seats and a largely corresponding increase in Labour seats simply reflects an approximate 2%-3% shift in the polls over recent weeks.
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The problem is, an extra £15 bn isn't available. Taxes are as high as they can go, and there are endless claims on the public purse.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Smarmeron, I said 'as is'.
I support the basic principle, but I do believe without change it's unaffordable. I'm sure some backroom changes could save something, but we may also end up looking at taxing 'unhealthy' activities, having charges for self-inflicted or partially self-inflicted conditions (ie, drunk who falls over and hurts himself) and the removal of certain procedures altogether (nobody will miss tattoo removal being axed but other areas, IVF, say, would be more contentious).
I doubt much of that, perhaps excepting increased taxation, will occur. Politicians will try and muddle through, the service will worsen, and eventually it'll just collapse. Well, that's my forecast.
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YesPulpstar said:Are there any polls out today >?
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@Morris_Dancer
More backroom efficiency savings might be the way forward, though I thought they had all been achieved with the reorganisation?0 -
There's also the obesity time bomb. From the other day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I wonder if demographics now make the NHS as is simply unaffordable.
With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.
Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.
Three in four over-65s overweight
Doctors warn of knock-on health problems as figures show 5.8m people aged 65 and over in England are overweight
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/26/three-quarters-over-65s-overweight0 -
Uruguay's attack lacks teeth and bitePulpstar said:Uruguay look OK - but they'd be better off with a truly world class #1A striker up front.
Do they have anyone like that ?
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And Jerzy Janowicz lost to Spain's Tommy Robredo in five setsTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr. F, indeed, our deficit remains enormous and our debt is already huge.
But if Miliband wins, you will be proved wrong about taxes being as high as they can go, I suspect.
Mr. Charles, sounds a little like potholes. (Bear with me). They can be repaired quickly and cheaply, or more expensively. The expensive way lasts much longer. But because local councils don't have the cash now and didn't mend the roads when the economy was better they're trapped in a vicious circle of just affording the quick, cheap repairs which need doing again in a few years.
Mr. Smarmeron, do I detect a small hint of sarcasm?
Backroom efficiencies can help, but will not be enough, I suspect.0 -
I've replied to your email.viewcode said:
I've emailed you, Peter. Please do not disclose my name nor address.peter_from_putney said:
viewcode - I have Stephen Fisher's weekly numbers covering the past 3 months (from 25 March) If you care to email me at peterfromputney@gmail.com I'll send these to you.0 -
Front of the sunday telegraph,couldn't agree more.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/100657/the_sunday_telegraph_sunday_29th_june_2014.html
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Healthier lifestyles may, in turn, put pressure on the pensions budget.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's also the obesity time bomb. From the other day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I wonder if demographics now make the NHS as is simply unaffordable.
With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.
Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.
Three in four over-65s overweight
Doctors warn of knock-on health problems as figures show 5.8m people aged 65 and over in England are overweight
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/26/three-quarters-over-65s-overweight
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Mr. Eagles, it'd be ironic if obesity killed off people before they can claim too much in pensions or develop expensive (and horrible) Alzheimer's.
Whilst not a pie-muncher or cake enthusiast myself, I dislike the notion of a broad brush tax on such things. It may be necessary, alas.0 -
@MorrisDancer
The consequences are not cost. The consequences are serious healthy issues because patîeñts are bring prescribed inappropriate medication in ways that is explicitly recommended against.0 -
What we need is more immigrants paying more taxes to the treasury to help fund looking after our OAPsSean_F said:
Healthier lifestyles may, in turn, put pressure on the pensions budget.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's also the obesity time bomb. From the other day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I wonder if demographics now make the NHS as is simply unaffordable.
With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.
Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.
Three in four over-65s overweight
Doctors warn of knock-on health problems as figures show 5.8m people aged 65 and over in England are overweight
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/26/three-quarters-over-65s-overweight
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Mr. Charles, are you posting from Iberia? You seem to have an unusual accent today.
Ah, I stand corrected.
Edited extra bit: anyway, I'm off for the night.0 -
Isn't that just a massive human ponzi scheme ?TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more immigrants paying more taxes to the treasury to help fund looking after our OAPsSean_F said:
Healthier lifestyles may, in turn, put pressure on the pensions budget.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's also the obesity time bomb. From the other day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I wonder if demographics now make the NHS as is simply unaffordable.
With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.
Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.
Three in four over-65s overweight
Doctors warn of knock-on health problems as figures show 5.8m people aged 65 and over in England are overweight
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/26/three-quarters-over-65s-overweight0 -
@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page:
'Dead-hand' Miliband blasted by top adviser
twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/4829857336750448650 -
But if they go out, will they have a shoulder to cry on?TheScreamingEagles said:
Uruguay's attack lacks teeth and bitePulpstar said:Uruguay look OK - but they'd be better off with a truly world class #1A striker up front.
Do they have anyone like that ?
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Britain doesn't suffer from a shortage of immigrants. And, they will grow old in turn.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more immigrants paying more taxes to the treasury to help fund looking after our OAPsSean_F said:
Healthier lifestyles may, in turn, put pressure on the pensions budget.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's also the obesity time bomb. From the other day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I wonder if demographics now make the NHS as is simply unaffordable.
With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.
Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.
Three in four over-65s overweight
Doctors warn of knock-on health problems as figures show 5.8m people aged 65 and over in England are overweight
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/26/three-quarters-over-65s-overweight
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My favourite joke of the weekMarkHopkins said:
But if they go out, will they have a shoulder to cry on?TheScreamingEagles said:
Uruguay's attack lacks teeth and bitePulpstar said:Uruguay look OK - but they'd be better off with a truly world class #1A striker up front.
Do they have anyone like that ?
statistically you are more likely to be bitten by Luis Suarez than a shark
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Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Charles, are you posting from Iberia? You seem to have an unusual accent today.
Ah, I stand corrected.
Edited extra bit: anyway, I'm off for the night.
No, just from an iPad' but I have fat fingersMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, are you posting from Iberia? You seem to have an unusual accent today.
Ah, I stand corrected.
Edited extra bit: anyway, I'm off for the night.0 -
He'd raise tax rates. It's debatable whether tax revenues would rise.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, indeed, our deficit remains enormous and our debt is already huge.
But if Miliband wins, you will be proved wrong about taxes being as high as they can go, I suspect.
Mr. Charles, sounds a little like potholes. (Bear with me). They can be repaired quickly and cheaply, or more expensively. The expensive way lasts much longer. But because local councils don't have the cash now and didn't mend the roads when the economy was better they're trapped in a vicious circle of just affording the quick, cheap repairs which need doing again in a few years.
Mr. Smarmeron, do I detect a small hint of sarcasm?
Backroom efficiencies can help, but will not be enough, I suspect.
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2-0!!!
Uruguay = England?0 -
James Rodrigues for golden boot?0
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Uruguay betlsip in tatters. James Rodriguez is some player.0
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He's the Hannibal Lecter of football.TheScreamingEagles said:
My favourite joke of the weekMarkHopkins said:
But if they go out, will they have a shoulder to cry on?TheScreamingEagles said:
Uruguay's attack lacks teeth and bitePulpstar said:Uruguay look OK - but they'd be better off with a truly world class #1A striker up front.
Do they have anyone like that ?
statistically you are more likely to be bitten by Luis Suarez than a shark0 -
Without Suarez they are about the same level I think.Sunil_Prasannan said:2-0!!!
Uruguay = England?0 -
He's just misunderstood.Sean_F said:
He's the Hannibal Lecter of football.TheScreamingEagles said:
My favourite joke of the weekMarkHopkins said:
But if they go out, will they have a shoulder to cry on?TheScreamingEagles said:
Uruguay's attack lacks teeth and bitePulpstar said:Uruguay look OK - but they'd be better off with a truly world class #1A striker up front.
Do they have anyone like that ?
statistically you are more likely to be bitten by Luis Suarez than a shark0 -
He's having an old friend for dinner - L(o)uis FriendTheScreamingEagles said:
He's just misunderstood.Sean_F said:
He's the Hannibal Lecter of football.TheScreamingEagles said:
My favourite joke of the weekMarkHopkins said:
But if they go out, will they have a shoulder to cry on?TheScreamingEagles said:
Uruguay's attack lacks teeth and bitePulpstar said:Uruguay look OK - but they'd be better off with a truly world class #1A striker up front.
Do they have anyone like that ?
statistically you are more likely to be bitten by Luis Suarez than a shark0 -
I've got a bet (That should be voided) on Falcao to get the golden boot. On the strength of Columbia's performance it might have had a chance if he'd have played in the tourney.0
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LOL Labours GP negotiation kicks in to fook the NHSMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I wonder if demographics now make the NHS as is simply unaffordable.
With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.
Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.
The NHS is toxic for the Tories for a good reason0 -
Evening all. Anything interesting happen today?0
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I wonder if Prof. Fisher’s predictions will magically gradually change towards the election as it becomes clear his model was nonsense?
Just like i think the ARSE will have to move as swingback is lower than both models assume0 -
The Fisher predictions are basically a measure of if swingback is meeting, exceeding, or below expectations. Not unhelpful even if you disagree with his expectations.bigjohnowls said:I wonder if Prof. Fisher’s predictions will magically gradually change towards the election as it becomes clear his model was nonsense?
Just like i think the ARSE will have to move as swingback is lower than both models assume0 -
A non-political rpely - my understanding (Fox or others may know more) is that greater longevity hasn't in fact been accompanied by a longer period of being very ill. Most of us get by OK with the odd aches and pains and mishaps until the last few years, when we go downhill sharply (and loads of money is spent on us). It's quite common to see people in their 60s and 70s who are very active - I'm 64 myself and don't feel less healthy than when I was 34. I've been lucky, but it's not a very rare luck.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I wonder if demographics now make the NHS as is simply unaffordable.
With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.
Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.
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Although he can’t lose – he can make headline grabbing nonsense forecasts further out then his model magically adjusts to predict the actual result by the time of the election)as someone pointed out on UKPR0
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The level of swingback from here to the next general election is a known unknown.0
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It could - though I find it unlikely be negative. No irrefutable law that means it has to occur at all in fact.0
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It should be noted that Prof Fisher was one of the geniuses behind the very accurate exit poll at the last general election.0
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It is true that the vast majority of health costs are in the last two years of life, so longer lives are not inevitably more medically expensive. The nature of diseases change though, and certain diseases of age are quite expensive such as dementia.
Obesity does shorten lives, but the consequent shortening of working lives due to ill health largely offsets this. The economic costs of such illnesses are often the cost of disability rather than the cost of medical theraputics. In other words: lost productive years e.g. due to diabetes are often more costly to the state and individual than the cost of healthy years of retirement.NickPalmer said:
A non-political rpely - my understanding (Fox or others may know more) is that greater longevity hasn't in fact been accompanied by a longer period of being very ill. Most of us get by OK with the odd aches and pains and mishaps until the last few years, when we go downhill sharply (and loads of money is spent on us). It's quite common to see people in their 60s and 70s who are very active - I'm 64 myself and don't feel less healthy than when I was 34. I've been lucky, but it's not a very rare luck.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I wonder if demographics now make the NHS as is simply unaffordable.
With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.
Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.0 -
I don't expect you are interested in the answer, because it seems your only motivation is to rubbish an analysis which you don't like (and probably don't understand), but here goes:bigjohnowls said:I wonder if Prof. Fisher’s predictions will magically gradually change towards the election as it becomes clear his model was nonsense?
Yes, as the election gets closer the output from Prof Fisher's model (but not the model itself, of course) will change, in two ways. Firstly the central forecast of the vote shares of the various parties will get closer to what the opinion polls are saying at the time. Secondly, the error bars on that central forecast will narrow.
This is commonsense: polls a long way out from an election are a less good guide to the final result than polls very close to the election. What Prof. Fisher has done is quantify that effect by analysing how close polls in the past have been to the final result at various intervals before the election, and in which direction they have tended to shift.
It's a superb piece of work and extremely useful for political punters.
It is NOT a forecast, but an analysis of the predictive power of opinion polls.0 -
ED MILIBAND’S policy chief has launched a coded attack on the Labour leader for creating “cynical” policies designed only to “chime with focus groups”.
Jon Cruddas accused Miliband’s inner circle of wielding a “profound dead hand at the centre” to stop the party adopting bold policies.
He attacked Labour’s plans to cut jobseeker’s allowance from those aged 18 to 21 unless they undergo training as “punitive” and suggested welfare cuts had been adopted only to placate the media and floating voters.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1428253.ece0 -
Between 1816 and 1822, Uruguay was either occupied or controlled by Portuguese Brazil, and between 1822 and 1828 by independent Brazil.0
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Nah, nothing to see here. After all, it's one of the usual suspects. OK, he happens to be Ed's policy chief. Admittedly it's a bit unusual to have your own policy chief rubbish your policies, but Ed has always said he wants a new approach.TheScreamingEagles said:ED MILIBAND’S policy chief has launched a coded attack on the Labour leader for creating “cynical” policies designed only to “chime with focus groups”.
Jon Cruddas accused Miliband’s inner circle of wielding a “profound dead hand at the centre” to stop the party adopting bold policies.
He attacked Labour’s plans to cut jobseeker’s allowance from those aged 18 to 21 unless they undergo training as “punitive” and suggested welfare cuts had been adopted only to placate the media and floating voters.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1428253.ece0 -
THERESA MAY has revealed that police investigations into life-threatening crimes and sexual attacks are being dropped at the rate of one a week in London alone as a result of the failure to give police stronger internet surveillance powers.
The home secretary said Scotland Yard had been forced to abandon 12 serious criminal investigations in just three months because detectives could not obtain communications data on the suspects. The cases included sexual offences, at least one kidnapping and other cases where there was a threat to life.
In an article for The Sunday Times’s website, the home secretary pressed other ministers to act, declaring that fresh powers were “needed desperately” to combat “real and deadly threats”.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1428205.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_06_280 -
Full-time Colombia 2-0 Uruguay0
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There's quite a few quotes from Cruddas that I'm sure Dave and the Tories will be quoting at Ed.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nah, nothing to see here. After all, it's one of the usual suspects. OK, he happens to be Ed's policy chief. Admittedly it's a bit unusual to have your own policy chief rubbish your policies, but Ed has always said he wants a new approach.TheScreamingEagles said:ED MILIBAND’S policy chief has launched a coded attack on the Labour leader for creating “cynical” policies designed only to “chime with focus groups”.
Jon Cruddas accused Miliband’s inner circle of wielding a “profound dead hand at the centre” to stop the party adopting bold policies.
He attacked Labour’s plans to cut jobseeker’s allowance from those aged 18 to 21 unless they undergo training as “punitive” and suggested welfare cuts had been adopted only to placate the media and floating voters.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1428253.ece0 -
Prof Fisher 9/5/14 CON Maj chance 36% Lab 18% chance
27/6/14 29% to 22%
crossover by August at that rate!!!0 -
Wheras Camerons advisors are either going to jail or being arrestedRichard_Nabavi said:
Nah, nothing to see here. After all, it's one of the usual suspects. OK, he happens to be Ed's policy chief. Admittedly it's a bit unusual to have your own policy chief rubbish your policies, but Ed has always said he wants a new approach.TheScreamingEagles said:ED MILIBAND’S policy chief has launched a coded attack on the Labour leader for creating “cynical” policies designed only to “chime with focus groups”.
Jon Cruddas accused Miliband’s inner circle of wielding a “profound dead hand at the centre” to stop the party adopting bold policies.
He attacked Labour’s plans to cut jobseeker’s allowance from those aged 18 to 21 unless they undergo training as “punitive” and suggested welfare cuts had been adopted only to placate the media and floating voters.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1428253.ece0 -
I had just realised that it doesn't, too late to edit or delete my witless post. Sorry.Pulpstar said:
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The Survation poll for the Mail On Sunday found that 47% of people now want to leave the EU, compared to 39% who want to stay in.
The poll for the paper also found the more people now believe that David Cameron will be unable to repatriate the powers he wants from the EU before holding a referendum - 44% compared to 15% who believe he will be able to.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/euro-leaders-cowards-over-juncker-vote-112003696.html#tZZihui0 -
Obviously she's going to get abuse from MI5 agents posting as Nats
Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 44s
This weekend's Scotland on Sunday front page
pic.twitter.com/ZQNT3qLhRE0 -
Well the EU has definitely had an "Event" in the last few days - what are the changes from the last poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Survation poll for the Mail On Sunday found that 47% of people now want to leave the EU, compared to 39% who want to stay in.
The poll for the paper also found the more people now believe that David Cameron will be unable to repatriate the powers he wants from the EU before holding a referendum - 44% compared to 15% who believe he will be able to.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/euro-leaders-cowards-over-juncker-vote-112003696.html#tZZihui
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Changes are stay no change, leave +1Pulpstar said:
Well the EU has definitely had an "Event" in the last few days - what are the changes from the last poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Survation poll for the Mail On Sunday found that 47% of people now want to leave the EU, compared to 39% who want to stay in.
The poll for the paper also found the more people now believe that David Cameron will be unable to repatriate the powers he wants from the EU before holding a referendum - 44% compared to 15% who believe he will be able to.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/euro-leaders-cowards-over-juncker-vote-112003696.html#tZZihui0 -
Hmm... Looks like MoE to me - you'd have thought the Junker episode would probably turn a few people away from the EU so expect more than +1 leave..TheScreamingEagles said:
Changes are stay no change, leave +1Pulpstar said:
Well the EU has definitely had an "Event" in the last few days - what are the changes from the last poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Survation poll for the Mail On Sunday found that 47% of people now want to leave the EU, compared to 39% who want to stay in.
The poll for the paper also found the more people now believe that David Cameron will be unable to repatriate the powers he wants from the EU before holding a referendum - 44% compared to 15% who believe he will be able to.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/euro-leaders-cowards-over-juncker-vote-112003696.html#tZZihui
Didn't another poll find we want to stay in ?
Does anyone outside of pb.com/guido/the westminster village pay any attention whatsoever ?0 -
Incidentally, an interesting scenario occurred to me. Suppose Dave gets his majority, tries to renegotiate, doesn't get much traction, and therefore regretfully recommends that we leave the EU.
If, in the referendum, the Stay In side then win: what happens next?0 -
Dave will go down the European model, and continue to hold a referendum until he gets the right resultRichard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, an interesting scenario occurred to me. Suppose Dave gets his majority, tries to renegotiate, doesn't get much traction, and therefore recommends that we leave the EU.
If, in the referendum, the Stay In side then win: what happens next?0 -
Wonder if they'll have a voting intention with that as well?TheScreamingEagles said:The Survation poll for the Mail On Sunday found that 47% of people now want to leave the EU, compared to 39% who want to stay in.
The poll for the paper also found the more people now believe that David Cameron will be unable to repatriate the powers he wants from the EU before holding a referendum - 44% compared to 15% who believe he will be able to.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/euro-leaders-cowards-over-juncker-vote-112003696.html#tZZihui
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We stay in. Surely though it would be the end of Camerons leadership.Richard_Nabavi said:
Incidentally, an interesting scenario occurred to me. Suppose Dave gets his majority, tries to renegotiate, doesn't get much traction, and therefore recommends that we leave the EU.
If, in the referendum, the Stay In side then win: what happens next?0 -
I do worry about how many serious crimes are going unsolved because the police have not been able to bar code and fit tracking devices to everyone in the country.TheScreamingEagles said:THERESA MAY has revealed that police investigations into life-threatening crimes and sexual attacks are being dropped at the rate of one a week in London alone as a result of the failure to give police stronger internet surveillance powers.
The home secretary said Scotland Yard had been forced to abandon 12 serious criminal investigations in just three months because detectives could not obtain communications data on the suspects. The cases included sexual offences, at least one kidnapping and other cases where there was a threat to life.
In an article for The Sunday Times’s website, the home secretary pressed other ministers to act, declaring that fresh powers were “needed desperately” to combat “real and deadly threats”.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1428205.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_06_280 -
Would we have a referendum on leaving? Surely we'd just leave?Richard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, an interesting scenario occurred to me. Suppose Dave gets his majority, tries to renegotiate, doesn't get much traction, and therefore regretfully recommends that we leave the EU.
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LOL!TheScreamingEagles said:Dave will go down the European model, and continue to hold a referendum until he gets the right result
I suppose he'll be able to ask his friend Jean-Claude Juncker for some tips on how to handle it.0 -
The EU kick us out anyway ?Richard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, an interesting scenario occurred to me. Suppose Dave gets his majority, tries to renegotiate, doesn't get much traction, and therefore regretfully recommends that we leave the EU.
If, in the referendum, the Stay In side then win: what happens next?0 -
Personally I hope we go down the Minority Report route.Richard_Tyndall said:
I do worry about how many serious crimes are going unsolved because the police have not been able to bar code and fit tracking devices to everyone in the country.TheScreamingEagles said:THERESA MAY has revealed that police investigations into life-threatening crimes and sexual attacks are being dropped at the rate of one a week in London alone as a result of the failure to give police stronger internet surveillance powers.
The home secretary said Scotland Yard had been forced to abandon 12 serious criminal investigations in just three months because detectives could not obtain communications data on the suspects. The cases included sexual offences, at least one kidnapping and other cases where there was a threat to life.
In an article for The Sunday Times’s website, the home secretary pressed other ministers to act, declaring that fresh powers were “needed desperately” to combat “real and deadly threats”.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1428205.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_06_280 -
'[T]he Crown of England, which has been so free at all times, that it has had no earthly lord, but is immediately subject to God in all matters touching the regality of the same crown, and to none other' would forever be subject to Brussels. A virulent prospect.Richard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, an interesting scenario occurred to me. Suppose Dave gets his majority, tries to renegotiate, doesn't get much traction, and therefore regretfully recommends that we leave the EU.
If, in the referendum, the Stay In side then win: what happens next?0 -
Hmm If we'd have gone through I suspect Colombia would have thrashed us by at least 2-0. What is more we would have probably hilariously been favourites for the match.0
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So Betfair price on Tories overall majority on 9/5/14 represented excellent value then as it was twice as likely compared with a Lab one. Good luck following the model the Betfair price is still more or less the same now yet the model says its now only 31% more likely. My instinct is that Lab most seats is a good bet at 10/11. On 9/5/14 the model would have said it was a very bad bet, now not quite so bad.Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't expect you are interested in the answer, because it seems your only motivation is to rubbish an analysis which you don't like (and probably don't understand), but here goes:bigjohnowls said:I wonder if Prof. Fisher’s predictions will magically gradually change towards the election as it becomes clear his model was nonsense?
Yes, as the election gets closer the output from Prof Fisher's model (but not the model itself, of course) will change, in two ways. Firstly the central forecast of the vote shares of the various parties will get closer to what the opinion polls are saying at the time. Secondly, the error bars on that central forecast will narrow.
This is commonsense: polls a long way out from an election are a less good guide to the final result than polls very close to the election. What Prof. Fisher has done is quantify that effect by analysing how close polls in the past have been to the final result at various intervals before the election, and in which direction they have tended to shift.
It's a superb piece of work and extremely useful for political punters.
It is NOT a forecast, but an analysis of the predictive power of opinion polls.
If you want to follow the model thats fine but i dont go along with this genius bit0 -
The EU will grant the denied concessions in gratitude for the loyalty of the British people.Richard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, an interesting scenario occurred to me. Suppose Dave gets his majority, tries to renegotiate, doesn't get much traction, and therefore regretfully recommends that we leave the EU.
If, in the referendum, the Stay In side then win: what happens next?
And we shall all live happily forever after.0 -
Perhaps more of a development -TheScreamingEagles said:Obviously she's going to get abuse from MI5 agents posting as Nats
Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 44s
This weekend's Scotland on Sunday front page
pic.twitter.com/ZQNT3qLhRE
twitter.com/newsundayherald/status/483010035581476864/photo/1
Will have to see what they say.
(BTW pressed the off topic button by mistake - Vanilla was acting up and I got my quote and o/t buttons mixed up. Idiotic finger trouble I know but my apologies. )
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Non-Paywalled version of the Cruddas story
Sky's Political Correspondent Sophy Ridge said: "This story is significant because of who is giving the comments.
"Jon Cruddas is the head of Labour's policy review. That's a senior position - it means he's effectively in charge of the way Labour formulates its proposals ahead of the next election.
"What he is specifically saying is that he is concerned the way Labour is making policies is not really working for the party."
http://news.sky.com/story/1291420/policy-chief-questions-milibands-leadership0 -
Conservative majority is way too short at the moment, 3.9 is a joke price.0
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Richards scenario is essentially a duplicate of a No outcome in the Indyref.
It would settle the issue, make the first ministers position untenable and lead to negotions on a new settlement.
Like the Indyref we would see Project Fib vs Project Fear. It would also take some years to work out the consequences of departure (stay in the EEA? Stay in EFTA?, stay in ECJ? etc) so as to frame the debate. No doubt many have made up their minds already.0 -
You still don't seem to understand. It is NOT a forecast. It is an analysis of the predictive power of the polls.bigjohnowls said:
So Betfair price on Tories overall majority on 9/5/14 represented excellent value then as it was twice as likely compared with a Lab one. Good luck following the model the Betfair price is still more or less the same now yet the model says its now only 31% more likely. My instinct is that Lab most seats is a good bet at 10/11. On 9/5/14 the model would have said it was a very bad bet, now not quite so bad.
If you want to follow the model thats fine but i dont go along with this genius bit
By all means bet on the basis of what you think will happen. You might be right, just as those (such as Jack W, and, it appears, many senior Labour politicians) who think the public will recoil from ever putting Ed Miliband into No 10 might be right. We shall see; political betting is a judgement call overlaid on looking at opinion polls.
However, what Professor Fisher's analysis shows is that you shouldn't (yet) be relying too much on the opinion polls to form that judgement.0 -
"cynical nuggets of policy to chime with our focus groups and our press strategies"TheScreamingEagles said:Non-Paywalled version of the Cruddas story
Sky's Political Correspondent Sophy Ridge said: "This story is significant because of who is giving the comments.
"Jon Cruddas is the head of Labour's policy review. That's a senior position - it means he's effectively in charge of the way Labour formulates its proposals ahead of the next election.
"What he is specifically saying is that he is concerned the way Labour is making policies is not really working for the party."
http://news.sky.com/story/1291420/policy-chief-questions-milibands-leadership
Bravo. Couldn't have put it better myself.0 -
As I said earlier, there's enough there for Dave and The Tories to keep them happy for ages.Richard_Nabavi said:
"cynical nuggets of policy to chime with our focus groups and our press strategies"TheScreamingEagles said:Non-Paywalled version of the Cruddas story
Sky's Political Correspondent Sophy Ridge said: "This story is significant because of who is giving the comments.
"Jon Cruddas is the head of Labour's policy review. That's a senior position - it means he's effectively in charge of the way Labour formulates its proposals ahead of the next election.
"What he is specifically saying is that he is concerned the way Labour is making policies is not really working for the party."
http://news.sky.com/story/1291420/policy-chief-questions-milibands-leadership
Bravo. Couldn't have put it better myself.0 -
Swingback is a nice theory in which voters magically and for no reason at all switch into supporting the governing party of the day (which is false since people change their vote for a reason).
Lets look at the data and see if it always exists and to find why.
There have been 11 elections since regular polling began, I will count 10 since 1974 had 2 in a few months.
Swingback occurred in 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2010, so in 5 out of 10 elections
Out of those 5, 1983 was a war victory, 1992 a leadership change, and 3 remaining from the improving economy.
From those 3 only one (1987) gave victory to the government.
So if we discount a war victory or a leadership change, the chances of a swingback are less than 1 in 3 and even if there is swingback again 1 in 3 swingbacks offered victory.
It could happen, all non event swingbacks occurred thanks to an improving economy and could still lead to victory like 1987, but time is running out, no swingback has ever occurred after the conferences.0 -
The interesting thing is that by 2017 it is perfectly possible there will have been big gains by the Swedish Democrats and Danish Peoples' Party in their elections, perhaps even Marine Le Pen topping the first round of the French Presidential poll, as a result the UK's position will look less extreme, particularly as our FPTP system will give UKIP only 1 or 2 seats at best. In the end I think Merkel will do whatever she can to keep the UK in, Germany does not want to be the only large economy of strength in the union, which with a UK exit she would be. She does not want to have only Italy, Spain and France, all economies in decline, as her only counterparts amongst the big nations, posing a bigger burden on Germany with likely resentment from the southern EU nations too0
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But to be fair to Miliband it is probably the right tactics for an opposition at this stage of the electoral cycle.Richard_Nabavi said:
"cynical nuggets of policy to chime with our focus groups and our press strategies"TheScreamingEagles said:Non-Paywalled version of the Cruddas story
Sky's Political Correspondent Sophy Ridge said: "This story is significant because of who is giving the comments.
"Jon Cruddas is the head of Labour's policy review. That's a senior position - it means he's effectively in charge of the way Labour formulates its proposals ahead of the next election.
"What he is specifically saying is that he is concerned the way Labour is making policies is not really working for the party."
http://news.sky.com/story/1291420/policy-chief-questions-milibands-leadership
Bravo. Couldn't have put it better myself.
What is damning is Cruddas predicting that the "interesting ideas and remedies" being developed in the party's formal policy review process will not make it to the GE manifesto.
Playing to the cameras is fine provided real policy development is going on out of sight.
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It's getting a bit late to still be using such tactics especially given that Labour's biggest problem of all is lack of credibility. This is especially so because the Labour conference is, by a piece of bad luck for them, likely to be drowned out by the fallout from IndyRef - even if the result is No.AveryLP said:
But to be fair to Miliband it is probably the right tactics for an opposition at this stage of the electoral cycle.0 -
Lord Ashcroft poll
The Sunday Times are reporting that the Lord Ashcroft Lib/Lab marginals poll will show.
" the poll to be released on Tuesday, will show that Labour will gain about another seven seats"0 -
The electoral cycles of europe do point to a major policy crisis by the end of the decade.HYUFD said:The interesting thing is that by 2017 it is perfectly possible there will have been big gains by the Swedish Democrats and Danish Peoples' Party in their elections, perhaps even Marine Le Pen topping the first round of the French Presidential poll, as a result the UK's position will look less extreme, particularly as our FPTP system will give UKIP only 1 or 2 seats at best. In the end I think Merkel will do whatever she can to keep the UK in, Germany does not want to be the only large economy of strength in the union, which with a UK exit she would be. She does not want to have only Italy, Spain and France, all economies in decline, as her only counterparts amongst the big nations, posing a bigger burden on Germany with likely resentment from the southern EU nations too
If Le Pen wins in France it will result in the biggest cat fight with Merkel since Dynasty and Dallas, little will be left of europe to withdraw by the time PM Miliband loses the 2020 election.0 -
Swingback can also be negative. Callaghan looked like winning in autumn 1978.
But Fisher is mostly saying what NPXMP says: as well as black swans there are only the indyref and conferences that can really change things before the campaign.
Possibly some thing like Cruddas's comments or Junckers election could represent a black swan, but most people do not notice these things. They are too busy getting on with watching football and Glastonbury and that emergency diet so that they look good on the beach.Speedy said:Swingback is a nice theory in which voters magically and for no reason at all switch into supporting the governing party of the day (which is false since people change their vote for a reason).
Lets look at the data and see if it always exists and to find why.
There have been 11 elections since regular polling began, I will count 10 since 1974 had 2 in a few months.
Swingback occurred in 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2010, so in 5 out of 10 elections
Out of those 5, 1983 was a war victory, 1992 a leadership change, and 3 remaining from the improving economy.
From those 3 only one (1987) gave victory to the government.
So if we discount a war victory or a leadership change, the chances of a swingback are less than 1 in 3 and even if there is swingback again 1 in 3 swingbacks offered victory.
It could happen, all non event swingbacks occurred thanks to an improving economy and could still lead to victory like 1987, but time is running out, no swingback has ever occurred after the conferences.0 -
NEW: Survation/M.O.S. Westminster VI - (with change since 24th May) CON 27% (NC) LAB 36% (+4), LD 7% (-2) UKIP 22% (-1) OTHERS 9 (NC)0
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Twitter
Survation @Survation 4m
Good evening. We have the first "post Juncker appointment" (and post Old Bailey *developments*) poll coming in tomorrow's Mail On Sunday0 -
How many Lib held marginals did he poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Ashcroft poll
The Sunday Times are reporting that the Lord Ashcroft Lib/Lab marginals poll will show.
" the poll to be released on Tuesday, will show that Labour will gain about another seven seats"0 -
OUCH for Team Blue!TheScreamingEagles said:NEW: Survation/M.O.S. Westminster VI - (with change since 24th May) CON 27% (NC) LAB 36% (+4), LD 7% (-2) UKIP 22% (-1) OTHERS 9 (NC)
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I presume that means seven seats from the LibDems - if so, it's much as one might expect, but not as many as they'd be hoping for on a good night.TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Ashcroft poll
The Sunday Times are reporting that the Lord Ashcroft Lib/Lab marginals poll will show.
" the poll to be released on Tuesday, will show that Labour will gain about another seven seats"
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Nah, good news, no drop post Coulson and Juncker.GIN1138 said:
OUCH for Team Blue!TheScreamingEagles said:NEW: Survation/M.O.S. Westminster VI - (with change since 24th May) CON 27% (NC) LAB 36% (+4), LD 7% (-2) UKIP 22% (-1) OTHERS 9 (NC)
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