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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest projections from Oxford’s Stephen Fisher have the battle getting tighter
The GE2015 projections from the model by Oxford's @StephenDFisher are getting tighter http://t.co/aKqk5ESWlq
See pic.twitter.com/YDfyoPeGP9
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Will be interesting to see how long this goes on for.
"The main issue is that companies which are currently located in the UK and export the majority of their output to the EU may move their production to an EU country and a new company say Chinese may decide to build its factory in the heart of the EU rather than the little island sulking off shore ".
And why would they? If we remain within the EFTA then their position would be no different to what it is now. Besides, where companies locate their manufacturing often depends on many other factors including the local tax and legislative environment. At least outside the EU we would be in a position to make our country far more attractive to inward investment than it would be bound by increasingly protectionist EU regulation.
Plus of course EFTA already has trade deals in place with countries that the EU is still negotiating with.
All in all this 'little island' would do much better economically outside the EU than in.
You know full well that only one pollster had UKIP that high, and on only one occasion
If you are going to use that as a basis for an argument you have to mention ICM having Labour at 35% and other polls that had the Tories winning
http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Sixth-formers-quiz-politicians-Ellington-Hereson/story-21233189-detail/story.html
Always either too high or to low
Always too blue or too red it seems
They never quite match your fondest dreams
It all depends on motors,
getting out the voters
So whether your fast or infernal slow,
It's either too high or to low.
Of course, we have to consider our overseas trade and the impact that has on employment. I think, from the last figures I saw, currently about 57% of our exports go to non-EU countries. However, nobody is claiming that the jobs behind those exports would disappear if we weren't locked into a political union with those countries which buy most of our products. Strange then that we are asked to believe that if we were to lave the EU then the jobs connected to our, unbalanced, trade with the EU would vanish.
Coral @Coral 2m
We are paying out on Alexis Sanchez first goalscorer bets, as the Press Association awarded the first goal as an OG. #Brazillionaire
Mike is making the point that UKIP were disappointing because they got 27% when they had been at 38% in one poll
Labour were at 35% with the beloved ICM, who had UKIP at 20%... so under what is referred to as "The Gold Standard" by the PB Head Honchos, UKIP over performed, and Labour had a nightmare.
Also, one firm had the Conservatives as winning the Euro vote, and they came third, so they were also disappointing
But if we use ICM as the guide, Mike and TSE's favourite, UKIP smashed it out of the park
All pollsters predicted the Lib Dems to be an irrelevance, and they were all correct
Go Webb
#WorldCup: Howard Webb's post-match transport has arrived
pic.twitter.com/XGcVdalQ7Z
Still it makes the point I made earlier that it is not our presence in the EU that primarily dictates our trade but the business environment that each country presents to prospective investors. Indeed our membership of the EU has actually worked against us in trade terms as we are locked into a protectionist bloc which dictates how and where we do trade with the (much larger and more profitable) rest of the world.
Didn't look like handball by Hulk to me
At the moment I'm thinking back to stories of the 1950 final referee fleeing the stadium after the final whistle, going straight to the docks and never setting foot on Brazilian soil again. Webb's major calls have been right, I think – but they haven't been popular.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/28/brazil-v-chile-world-cup-2014-live-report
Coral @Coral · 12m
As we are such good guys, we are paying out on David Luiz AND Alexis Sanchez first goalscorer bets! #Brazillionaire
Aranguiz looks v good as well
You lot are meant to be in for Vidal
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/10020273.Ford_s___80m_EU_loan_to_boost_Turkey_factory___and_close_ours/
People making investment decisions like certainty.
I think we would be well advised to have a public decision - i.e. through a referendum - as soon as possible, because 10 years of will-we, won't-we would be far worse for the country (in terms of levels of business investment and FDI), that either of in or out.
Cornet Wins 1:6 6:3 6:4
Watched much sport today.
Nadal continues to start matches slowly. Federer completed another ritual slaughter, and Cornet knocked Serena out.
While I was standing up on the rest of the trip, what seemed like an extended Turkish family got on. Two of their kids were playing, and at one point one ran straight into me and knocked my shopping out my hand. His family just laughed and not one of them apologised to me.
Then on the bus from the tube stop two middle-aged Somali women pushed right past me without a hint of an "excuse me".
Crowded, multicultural London is a rude, selfish place. People need to learn some bloody manners.
In a previous thread, I asked if anybody knew of an archive of Stephen Fisher's predictions: i.e links to each prediction as he makes/made it. This is so I can track him over time. I've looked at his website but it's not obvious (I had a similar problem with Hix and the EP elections). Can anybody help?
I agree. Cameron's was too far away but at least he committed to one. Miliband and Clegg are cowardly in refusing to do it. I head Miliband's interview criticising Cameron today. Just how craven is he? He goes on about how he'd "build alliances", without giving any practical difference to Cameron's approach. What a toad of a man he is.
(Although my two children are wide awake and tunelessly singing songs from Frozen at full volume. PB is - comparatively - an ocean of sanity)
That said, the Chinese (or Chinese-descended) immigrants I've known here have been scrupulously polite and civil.
Also, my understanding is that the EIB gives 'loans' rather than 'grants'.
Really, it's just a bank that does big projects, and which can borrow cheaply because of its implicit state guarantee,
I happen to dislike governments (or quasi governments like the EU) getting involved in financing things because of my libertarian principles, but this is not the EU subsidising jobs moving to Poland or Turkey, or wherever. It is merely a slightly odd infrastructure bank - that was set up to help pay for the rebuilding of postware Europe IIRC - making loans that by-and-large are repaid on time,
What do we think tonight's polls will have? A bump for hero Dave, a dip for for defeated Dave, or nothing very much? A small bump that reverts next week is my guess. Not my experience, in general, and I live in a busy, multicultural area and catch the bus along the Holloway Road every day. People often stand up for each other and the general culture is to rub along, a bit self-preoccupied but civil enough. Nottingham is much the same. Think you were just unlucky and perhaps projected it onto your expectations.
Yes, it is profitable. The grant I was talking about came from the structural funds, so directly from the taxpayer. Sorry I wasn't clear.
I still don't think the quasi-public EIB should be engaged in financing the outsourcing of EU jobs however.
I also find that the Somalis are by far the rudest group in terms of pushing past people. (I have a friend who lives near a lot of them so I often get a bus with a lot on.) It's like they don't even have the concept of manners in their culture.
You never seem to mention polls that are against your line of thinking. Did you miss Populus.. or just ignore it.
Former Tory health minister Stephen Dorrell calls for more spending as King's Fund raises fears over shortage of doctors
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/28/cameron-warned-nhs-in-danger-of-collapse
With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.
Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.
The reduction of around 10-12 in his forecast of Tory seats and a largely corresponding increase in Labour seats simply reflects an approximate 2%-3% shift in the polls over recent weeks.
What system do you think should replace the NHS?
I support the basic principle, but I do believe without change it's unaffordable. I'm sure some backroom changes could save something, but we may also end up looking at taxing 'unhealthy' activities, having charges for self-inflicted or partially self-inflicted conditions (ie, drunk who falls over and hurts himself) and the removal of certain procedures altogether (nobody will miss tattoo removal being axed but other areas, IVF, say, would be more contentious).
I doubt much of that, perhaps excepting increased taxation, will occur. Politicians will try and muddle through, the service will worsen, and eventually it'll just collapse. Well, that's my forecast.
I'll just get up and let them take it.
London is a great place if you're young, or earning a very great deal of money. I live in a 4 bedroom house with 3/4 of an acre of garden. In a nice part of London, I could afford a two-bed flat, for the same price. I'm within walking distance of attractive villages, countryside and pubs.