The interesting thing is that by 2017 it is perfectly possible there will have been big gains by the Swedish Democrats and Danish Peoples' Party in their elections, perhaps even Marine Le Pen topping the first round of the French Presidential poll, as a result the UK's position will look less extreme, particularly as our FPTP system will give UKIP only 1 or 2 seats at best. In the end I think Merkel will do whatever she can to keep the UK in, Germany does not want to be the only large economy of strength in the union, which with a UK exit she would be. She does not want to have only Italy, Spain and France, all economies in decline, as her only counterparts amongst the big nations, posing a bigger burden on Germany with likely resentment from the southern EU nations too
Your point about Germany not wanting to be the only large economy of strength in the union is valid. The exposure of the EU to the UK's withdrawal is demonstrated by statistics on shares of the EU's GDP.
==================================== Shares of EU(28) GDP All figures end Q4; source OECD 2004 2009 2013 ------------------------------------ Germany 19.39% 19.49% 20.39% UK 14.93% 14.71% 15.02% France 14.06% 13.95% 14.08% Italy 12.53% 11.77% 11.12% Spain 8.85% 9.04% 8.52% EU (Big 5) 69.76% 68.98% 69.13% ====================================
For all the enlargement of the EU, share of GDP is, albeit gradually, becoming more concentrated at the top.
Speedy Indeed, though I doubt Merkel would win outright against a weakened Hollande she could gain 40% in the run-off which would still be an earthquake, and the fact the centre right is split and riven by corruption allegations leaves her as France's main opposition at the moment.
As for the UK, what is different this time is the UKIP vote, not one voter could move from Labour to the Tories, and the Tories could still be largest party with swingback fromm UKIP, add the Tory + UKIP totals on that new MOS/Survation poll and you get to 49%, 13% more than Labour. By 2020, I also think it is more likely to be Chukka Umunna winning it than Miliband losing it as Miliband will already have lost the previous election. Having the UK and Europe's first black PM will then be a big boost to the UK in Europe
The interesting thing is that by 2017 it is perfectly possible there will have been big gains by the Swedish Democrats and Danish Peoples' Party in their elections, perhaps even Marine Le Pen topping the first round of the French Presidential poll, as a result the UK's position will look less extreme, particularly as our FPTP system will give UKIP only 1 or 2 seats at best. In the end I think Merkel will do whatever she can to keep the UK in, Germany does not want to be the only large economy of strength in the union, which with a UK exit she would be. She does not want to have only Italy, Spain and France, all economies in decline, as her only counterparts amongst the big nations, posing a bigger burden on Germany with likely resentment from the southern EU nations too
Your point about Germany not wanting to be the only large economy of strength in the union is valid. The exposure of the EU to the UK's withdrawal is demonstrated by statistics on shares of the EU's GDP.
==================================== Shares of EU(28) GDP All figures end Q4; source OECD 2004 2009 2013 ------------------------------------ Germany 19.39% 19.49% 20.39% UK 14.93% 14.71% 15.02% France 14.06% 13.95% 14.08% Italy 12.53% 11.77% 11.12% Spain 8.85% 9.04% 8.52% EU (Big 5) 69.76% 68.98% 69.13% ====================================
For all the enlargement of the EU, share of GDP is, albeit gradually, becoming more concentrated at the top.
Good point, that's because all industry and services tend to concentrate in small areas inside a common market, much like heavy industry in the north of england or the rust belt or financials in London or New York. All countries in the EU will see their industry moving to the Rhineland and all their services to London, but that will make protectionism the only way to survive if you are not living in Germany or Britain.
While mules are quite pleasant animals and environmentally friendly, I think that I will have problems commuting. There are no stables at the hospital.
I'd love to know which park in Cardiff this ISIS do is alleged to have taken place. As I pottered around the Welsh capital today there was a notable absence of odd shoes and indeed mules. The bomb squad was, however, looking under the roots of municipal small trees in pots on the armed forces day parade route ( I kid you not ).
While mules are quite pleasant animals and environmentally friendly, I think that I will have problems commuting. There are no stables at the hospital.
Speedy Indeed, though I doubt Merkel would win outright against a weakened Hollande she could gain 40% in the run-off which would still be an earthquake, and the fact the centre right is split and riven by corruption allegations leaves her as France's main opposition at the moment.
As for the UK, what is different this time is the UKIP vote, not one voter could move from Labour to the Tories, and the Tories could still be largest party with swingback fromm UKIP, add the Tory + UKIP totals on that new MOS/Survation poll and you get to 49%, 13% more than Labour. By 2020, I also think it is more likely to be Chukka Umunna winning it than Miliband losing it as Miliband will already have lost the previous election. Having the UK and Europe's first black PM will then be a big boost to the UK in Europe
Le Pen is already 44 to 56 vs Hollande, and since in a two horse race every vote counts for two she only needs another 7% in the next 3 years in a France that is stuck in the swamp for her to win.
As for the mythical UKIP swingback, that will happen if the Tories ditch Cameron before the election, since he and his policies are the main reasons why kippers hate the Tories. No comment on Chukka, he maybe good looking but labour people don't like him and he has the charisma of a whole shipload of planks of wood.
Avery/Speedy Indeed, but protectionism is a gift to the Le Pens and Golden Dawns of Europe, not the federalist elites
The federalists favour protectionism outwith the European Union, the National Front/Golden Dawn support protectionism within the European Union. There are no genuine free traders among them.
Interesting details: * Lead is actually 9.7% before ICM/Populus-style reallocation of doubtfuls to the past party, which pushes LDs up from 5 to 6.5 * LibDems APPROVE of Juncker by a 3-1 margin. Labour voters marginally against. UKIP voters more favourable (11%) than Tories (55). But 40-50% don't know for all parties. * Generally rather lukewarm resonses to all the detailed Europe questions with lots of don't knows - e.g. asked if Cameron's stand shows him strong/weak/don't know, the result is 37/35/26. Asked if they most admire Cameron, Merkel or Hollande, Merkel wins by a mile but 42% don't have an opinion.
I'd add that I'm wary of the poll as the rotation of the four parties as of equal standing probably does overstate UKIP - which in turn means it understates the Tories. My guess is that the Labour lead is steady at about 4-5. But voters are a bit meh over the whole Juncker thing.
Last post for tonight. The LD even with a lousy 7%, less than half of that 7% is 10 out of 10 on likely to vote, by far the worst of them all, now that's a bad poll for the LD.
Leader(s) accused of cowardice for ignoring repeated warnings given in private about giving someone controversial a top job..are we talking about Junker or Coulson?
Tories shooting themselves in the foot by obsessing about Europe. 'Twas ever thus.
Very true. It's all very Corn Laws circa 1850s. But by 2020 one assumes the Tories could possibly well be all BOO as a settled position. What happens then depends on Europe itself. If it wishes to pursue ever closer union I just cannot see the British people going along with it. In which case the Tories will be on the right side of the argument. Lots of ifs there, and far from inevitable, but it looks like the political plate tectonics are moving that way at present.
Are the Lib Dems going to continue to be ultra pro Europe if ever closer union is actively pursued by the Continent? They may remain unified but it'll mean they'll all go over the cliff together.
I can't take Stephen Fishers forecast seriously. I know where he is coming from, but 2015 is going to be a strange one, with UKIP taking votes mostly from the Tories and the Lib Dems losing votes outside of their strongholds. In theory Labour have a great chance of winning most seats, even if they only won say 33% of the vote. The Tories would need to achieve about 38% to even win most seats, which I can't see them doing.
Speedy It may well be that Hollande has to rely on Valls to beat Le Pen
On UKIP, 40% of their voters voted for Cameron in 2010 who he needs to regain.
On Chukka, he is thoughtful and telegenic and I would not say Obama is that naturally charismatic either, he would I agree face a tight battle with Yvette Cooper (the UK version of Clinton v Obama, with perhaps Burnham as Edwards)
While mules are quite pleasant animals and environmentally friendly, I think that I will have problems commuting. There are no stables at the hospital.
"Jobless Waleed – whose real name is Shahid Janjua – lives in a council house in Hounslow, West London, and claims benefits for himself, his wife and three disabled children."
Professor Anthony Glees, of the Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies at Buckingham University, said the mission, which took place earlier this year, showed the level of concern in Washington over the issue, which he claimed was rooted in the UK’s ‘lax’ immigration policies.
‘The US is worried about the British situation. They fear there might be a knock-on effect for them,’ Prof Glees said.
‘The throat-cutting between Sunnis and Shias in Iraq and Syria has not yet spread to the UK, but it is a real threat. It is conceivable you could see Shia “hit squads” in Britain targeting Sunnis preparing to go out to the conflict zones to fight.’
He said: ‘The Americans regard the UK as a disaster because of our lax stance on immigration which has allowed this militancy to take hold.
Tories shooting themselves in the foot by obsessing about Europe. 'Twas ever thus.
Very true. It's all very Corn Laws circa 1850s. But by 2020 one assumes the Tories could possibly well be all BOO as a settled position. What happens then depends on Europe itself. If it wishes to pursue ever closer union I just cannot see the British people going along with it. In which case the Tories will be on the right side of the argument. Lots of ifs there, and far from inevitable, but it looks like the political plate tectonics are moving that way at present.
Are the Lib Dems going to continue to be ultra pro Europe if ever closer union is actively pursued by the Continent? They may remain unified but it'll mean they'll all go over the cliff together.
THERESA MAY has revealed that police investigations into life-threatening crimes and sexual attacks are being dropped at the rate of one a week in London alone as a result of the failure to give police stronger internet surveillance powers.
The home secretary said Scotland Yard had been forced to abandon 12 serious criminal investigations in just three months because detectives could not obtain communications data on the suspects. The cases included sexual offences, at least one kidnapping and other cases where there was a threat to life.
In an article for The Sunday Times’s website, the home secretary pressed other ministers to act, declaring that fresh powers were “needed desperately” to combat “real and deadly threats”.
God, she's just like New Labour. I'm sure if those cases had credible cause the police could have got warrants. Rather than try to scaremonger about this shit, she should put more effort into making sure the departments under her stop screwing up.
Tories shooting themselves in the foot by obsessing about Europe. 'Twas ever thus.
Very true. It's all very Corn Laws circa 1850s. But by 2020 one assumes the Tories could possibly well be all BOO as a settled position. What happens then depends on Europe itself. If it wishes to pursue ever closer union I just cannot see the British people going along with it. In which case the Tories will be on the right side of the argument. Lots of ifs there, and far from inevitable, but it looks like the political plate tectonics are moving that way at present.
Are the Lib Dems going to continue to be ultra pro Europe if ever closer union is actively pursued by the Continent? They may remain unified but it'll mean they'll all go over the cliff together.
Points taken. But I think the fudging of this " ever closer union " is reaching a point where the elastic won't stretch. Labour might muddle along and convince itself that Europe means 35 hour weeks all round but I doubt even Ed would sign up to a USE and if he did his minders would cart him off in a straight jacket pronto.
Nick Clegg for his part stood up and made a principled stand for the European cause and fair enough good for him and I'll tip my hat to his real courage in doing so. Fact is though Farage ( whom I don't support ) creamed him and the Lib Dems have been in single figures and flatlining ever since.
I agree a BOO Tory leader is not nailed on but the tide is flowing that way. I was really struck by the Latvian PM's retelling on R4 of Cameron's talk to the other leaders saying it was " emotional and difficult to listen to ". Strikes me even he's had enough of the charade of trying to square the circle with the other European leaders.
welshowl As I said earlier Merkel and the Germans cannot afford to let the UK leave the EU, and in any case election results on the continent are moving in a eurosceptic direction, more likely is the UK joins an outer tier of non Eurozone nations, night
"This means that the life expectancy for someone living with HIV, who is on anti-retroviral treatment and responding to treatment, is no different to the general population."
Diabetes UK estimates in its report, Diabetes in the UK 2010: Key Statistics on Diabetes[5], that the life expectancy of someone with type 2 diabetes is likely to be reduced, as a result of the condition, by up to 10 years.
"This means that the life expectancy for someone living with HIV, who is on anti-retroviral treatment and responding to treatment, is no different to the general population."
Diabetes UK estimates in its report, Diabetes in the UK 2010: Key Statistics on Diabetes[5], that the life expectancy of someone with type 2 diabetes is likely to be reduced, as a result of the condition, by up to 10 years.
Comments
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2673493/Infidels-wear-red-collars-shave-heads-Nazi-vision-Muslim-Britain-Imam-ran-Isis-barbecue-Welsh-park.html
As for the UK, what is different this time is the UKIP vote, not one voter could move from Labour to the Tories, and the Tories could still be largest party with swingback fromm UKIP, add the Tory + UKIP totals on that new MOS/Survation poll and you get to 49%, 13% more than Labour. By 2020, I also think it is more likely to be Chukka Umunna winning it than Miliband losing it as Miliband will already have lost the previous election. Having the UK and Europe's first black PM will then be a big boost to the UK in Europe
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Jean-Claude-Juncker-Poll-MoS.pdf
All countries in the EU will see their industry moving to the Rhineland and all their services to London, but that will make protectionism the only way to survive if you are not living in Germany or Britain.
The Tories have not won a majority since their internal fight over europe became manifest twenty years ago. It is going to happen again.
Milliband is going to be one very annoying Prime Minister, but I think that I can survive one term.
As for the mythical UKIP swingback, that will happen if the Tories ditch Cameron before the election, since he and his policies are the main reasons why kippers hate the Tories.
No comment on Chukka, he maybe good looking but labour people don't like him and he has the charisma of a whole shipload of planks of wood.
* Lead is actually 9.7% before ICM/Populus-style reallocation of doubtfuls to the past party, which pushes LDs up from 5 to 6.5
* LibDems APPROVE of Juncker by a 3-1 margin. Labour voters marginally against. UKIP voters more favourable (11%) than Tories (55). But 40-50% don't know for all parties.
* Generally rather lukewarm resonses to all the detailed Europe questions with lots of don't knows - e.g. asked if Cameron's stand shows him strong/weak/don't know, the result is 37/35/26. Asked if they most admire Cameron, Merkel or Hollande, Merkel wins by a mile but 42% don't have an opinion.
I'd add that I'm wary of the poll as the rotation of the four parties as of equal standing probably does overstate UKIP - which in turn means it understates the Tories. My guess is that the Labour lead is steady at about 4-5. But voters are a bit meh over the whole Juncker thing.
Just one to whet you appetite:
Q19. Which of the following do you think has the best policy on Europe?
David Cameron - 35.6%
Ed Miliband - 23.1%
DK - 41.2%
Enjoy the rest!
The LD even with a lousy 7%, less than half of that 7% is 10 out of 10 on likely to vote, by far the worst of them all, now that's a bad poll for the LD.
Are the Lib Dems going to continue to be ultra pro Europe if ever closer union is actively pursued by the Continent? They may remain unified but it'll mean they'll all go over the cliff together.
What would the result be if a certain Nigel Farage was included?
It's a political poll not a comedy show!
On UKIP, 40% of their voters voted for Cameron in 2010 who he needs to regain.
On Chukka, he is thoughtful and telegenic and I would not say Obama is that naturally charismatic either, he would I agree face a tight battle with Yvette Cooper (the UK version of Clinton v Obama, with perhaps Burnham as Edwards)
What a surprise.
‘The US is worried about the British situation. They fear there might be a knock-on effect for them,’ Prof Glees said.
‘The throat-cutting between Sunnis and Shias in Iraq and Syria has not yet spread to the UK, but it is a real threat. It is conceivable you could see Shia “hit squads” in Britain targeting Sunnis preparing to go out to the conflict zones to fight.’
He said: ‘The Americans regard the UK as a disaster because of our lax stance on immigration which has allowed this militancy to take hold.
And anyway, a week is a long time in politics, so six years is an eon, and 2020 far from a nailed on cert Tory BOOer government.
Nick Clegg for his part stood up and made a principled stand for the European cause and fair enough good for him and I'll tip my hat to his real courage in doing so. Fact is though Farage ( whom I don't support ) creamed him and the Lib Dems have been in single figures and flatlining ever since.
I agree a BOO Tory leader is not nailed on but the tide is flowing that way. I was really struck by the Latvian PM's retelling on R4 of Cameron's talk to the other leaders saying it was " emotional and difficult to listen to ". Strikes me even he's had enough of the charade of trying to square the circle with the other European leaders.
http://www.nhs.uk/chq/Pages/3106.aspx?CategoryID=118&SubCategoryID=126
"This means that the life expectancy for someone living with HIV, who is on anti-retroviral treatment and responding to treatment, is no different to the general population."
http://www.diabetes.co.uk/diabetes-life-expectancy.html
Diabetes UK estimates in its report, Diabetes in the UK 2010: Key Statistics on Diabetes[5], that the life expectancy of someone with type 2 diabetes is likely to be reduced, as a result of the condition, by up to 10 years.
http://www.nhs.uk/chq/Pages/3106.aspx?CategoryID=118&SubCategoryID=126
"This means that the life expectancy for someone living with HIV, who is on anti-retroviral treatment and responding to treatment, is no different to the general population."
http://www.diabetes.co.uk/diabetes-life-expectancy.html
Diabetes UK estimates in its report, Diabetes in the UK 2010: Key Statistics on Diabetes[5], that the life expectancy of someone with type 2 diabetes is likely to be reduced, as a result of the condition, by up to 10 years.