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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest projections from Oxford’s Stephen Fisher have the battle getting tighter

The GE2015 projections from the model by Oxford's @StephenDFisher are getting tighter http://t.co/aKqk5ESWlq
See pic.twitter.com/YDfyoPeGP9

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    first?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Note also the trend for P(Hung Parliament). The better than evens still available on this outcome is clear value in my mind.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Boo, Brazil score.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    On topic, Prof Fisher has in the past been quite bullish on the Tory chances, so the fact it is getting tighter is interesting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    1-0 to Brazil!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Where's the purple line? ^^
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited June 2014
    The Blue's certainly had a bad week last week (this week) with YouGov and overall I think Labour has ticked up a bit since the euro elections.

    Will be interesting to see how long this goes on for.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    GIN1138 said:

    The Blue's certainly had a bad week last (this week) with YouGov and overall I think Labour has ticked up a bit since the euro elections.

    Will be interesting to see how long this goes on for.

    The longer it progresses without a polling move to benefit the Conservatives, the closer the model will get as it reduces the time for swing-back. Even without movement in the polls.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    FPT Mark Senior said:

    "The main issue is that companies which are currently located in the UK and export the majority of their output to the EU may move their production to an EU country and a new company say Chinese may decide to build its factory in the heart of the EU rather than the little island sulking off shore ".

    And why would they? If we remain within the EFTA then their position would be no different to what it is now. Besides, where companies locate their manufacturing often depends on many other factors including the local tax and legislative environment. At least outside the EU we would be in a position to make our country far more attractive to inward investment than it would be bound by increasingly protectionist EU regulation.

    Plus of course EFTA already has trade deals in place with countries that the EU is still negotiating with.

    All in all this 'little island' would do much better economically outside the EU than in.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    1-1 Chile equalise!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    Or yellow :)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    You mean the party that was polling at 38% for the Euros but came out with 27% on the day.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    MarkHopkins said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The Blue's certainly had a bad week last (this week) with YouGov and overall I think Labour has ticked up a bit since the euro elections.

    Will be interesting to see how long this goes on for.

    The longer it progresses without a polling move to benefit the Conservatives, the closer the model will get as it reduces the time for swing-back. Even without movement in the polls.
    I think autumn will be critical!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    MikeSmithson said:

    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    You mean the party that was polling at 38% for the Euros but came out with 27% on the day.

    How about the Yellows, Mike?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    MikeSmithson said:

    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    You mean the party that was polling at 38% for the Euros but came out with 27% on the day.

    Mike that is such bad form from you of all people

    You know full well that only one pollster had UKIP that high, and on only one occasion

    If you are going to use that as a basis for an argument you have to mention ICM having Labour at 35% and other polls that had the Tories winning

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Its coloured red because a vote for UKIP increases Labours majority. You may not like it, but it is so...
    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,249
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    FPT Mark Senior said:

    "The main issue is that companies which are currently located in the UK and export the majority of their output to the EU may move their production to an EU country and a new company say Chinese may decide to build its factory in the heart of the EU rather than the little island sulking off shore ".

    And why would they? If we remain within the EFTA then their position would be no different to what it is now. Besides, where companies locate their manufacturing often depends on many other factors including the local tax and legislative environment. At least outside the EU we would be in a position to make our country far more attractive to inward investment than it would be bound by increasingly protectionist EU regulation.

    Plus of course EFTA already has trade deals in place with countries that the EU is still negotiating with.

    All in all this 'little island' would do much better economically outside the EU than in.

    The UK is a rich country. Whether it remains so won't turn on whether or not it's a member of the EU. With the EU, as with the Scottish debate, far to time is spent on making economic claims that are exaggerated on either side.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    FPT Mark Senior said:

    "The main issue is that companies which are currently located in the UK and export the majority of their output to the EU may move their production to an EU country and a new company say Chinese may decide to build its factory in the heart of the EU rather than the little island sulking off shore ".

    And why would they? If we remain within the EFTA then their position would be no different to what it is now. Besides, where companies locate their manufacturing often depends on many other factors including the local tax and legislative environment. At least outside the EU we would be in a position to make our country far more attractive to inward investment than it would be bound by increasingly protectionist EU regulation.

    Plus of course EFTA already has trade deals in place with countries that the EU is still negotiating with.

    All in all this 'little island' would do much better economically outside the EU than in.

    It's a guff argument in any case. Companies such as Ford have almost exited production in the UK compared to when we joined. The fall of the wall has been significantly underestimated by most of the europhiles. The advantages the UK had in having a the most flexible labour market in the EU have gone.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Another little hint that Farage could settle for Thanet South.

    http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Sixth-formers-quiz-politicians-Ellington-Hereson/story-21233189-detail/story.html
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    FPT..Why is a country that stands up for its rights and principles within the EU considered to be "Sulking"?...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MikeSmithson said:

    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    You mean the party that was polling at 38% for the Euros but came out with 27% on the day.

    Thats the one. Will do better next time, but you know these crap pollsters:

    Always either too high or to low
    Always too blue or too red it seems
    They never quite match your fondest dreams
    It all depends on motors,
    getting out the voters
    So whether your fast or infernal slow,
    It's either too high or to low.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I prefer Tories remain favourites to be largest party and Ed still a long way from no. 10 on this model.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    FPT Mark Senior said:

    "The main issue is that companies which are currently located in the UK and export the majority of their output to the EU may move their production to an EU country and a new company say Chinese may decide to build its factory in the heart of the EU rather than the little island sulking off shore ".

    And why would they? If we remain within the EFTA then their position would be no different to what it is now. Besides, where companies locate their manufacturing often depends on many other factors including the local tax and legislative environment. At least outside the EU we would be in a position to make our country far more attractive to inward investment than it would be bound by increasingly protectionist EU regulation.

    Plus of course EFTA already has trade deals in place with countries that the EU is still negotiating with.

    All in all this 'little island' would do much better economically outside the EU than in.

    And we had all that "everyone will leave the UK" threat nonsense over the Euro. Turned out it was all bollocks. As for inward investment will dry up unless we are in the EU, well just explain Ford moving some of its production from the UK (in the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

    Of course, we have to consider our overseas trade and the impact that has on employment. I think, from the last figures I saw, currently about 57% of our exports go to non-EU countries. However, nobody is claiming that the jobs behind those exports would disappear if we weren't locked into a political union with those countries which buy most of our products. Strange then that we are asked to believe that if we were to lave the EU then the jobs connected to our, unbalanced, trade with the EU would vanish.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It does look a strong likelihood that we have Fisher crossover this summer.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MikeSmithson said:

    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    You mean the party that was polling at 38% for the Euros but came out with 27% on the day.

    Fair enough, Mike. UKIP came in under some poll and only scored 27%. More than any other party but leave that for now. How did your beloved Liberal Democrats get on? About 7% wasn't it?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    edited June 2014
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    As for inward investment will dry up unless we are in the EU, well just explain Ford moving some of its production from the UK (in the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

    Pitifully low wages. If that's Britain's post-EU industrial strategy, I'm out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Huzzah

    Coral ‏@Coral 2m

    We are paying out on Alexis Sanchez first goalscorer bets, as the Press Association awarded the first goal as an OG. #Brazillionaire
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    HurstLlama said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    You mean the party that was polling at 38% for the Euros but came out with 27% on the day.

    Fair enough, Mike. UKIP came in under some poll and only scored 27%. More than any other party but leave that for now. How did your beloved Liberal Democrats get on? About 7% wasn't it?
    Actually, I dont think how the Lib Dems did is relevant here.

    Mike is making the point that UKIP were disappointing because they got 27% when they had been at 38% in one poll

    Labour were at 35% with the beloved ICM, who had UKIP at 20%... so under what is referred to as "The Gold Standard" by the PB Head Honchos, UKIP over performed, and Labour had a nightmare.

    Also, one firm had the Conservatives as winning the Euro vote, and they came third, so they were also disappointing

    But if we use ICM as the guide, Mike and TSE's favourite, UKIP smashed it out of the park

    All pollsters predicted the Lib Dems to be an irrelevance, and they were all correct
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    edited June 2014
    Backed Chile @ 7.8 and laid Brazil @ 1.79 here...

    D:
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    EPG said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    As for inward investment will dry up unless we are in the EU, well just explain Ford moving some of its production from the UK (in the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

    Pitifully low wages. If that's Britain's post-EU industrial strategy, I'm out.
    Bye, I am sure you will be missed by someone. Just out of interest, which country will you be emigrating to? What skills do you have that will earn you and yours a better life abroad than you can get here?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Ruled out !

    Go Webb
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    That was an incredibly good spot to see Hulk's handball.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,249
    isam said:

    HurstLlama said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    You mean the party that was polling at 38% for the Euros but came out with 27% on the day.

    Fair enough, Mike. UKIP came in under some poll and only scored 27%. More than any other party but leave that for now. How did your beloved Liberal Democrats get on? About 7% wasn't it?
    Actually, I dont think how the Lib Dems did is relevant here.

    Mike is making the point that UKIP were disappointing because they got 27% when they had been at 38% in one poll

    Labour were at 35% with the beloved ICM, who had UKIP at 20%... so under what is referred to as "The Gold Standard" by the PB Head Honchos, UKIP over performed, and Labour had a nightmare.

    Also, one firm had the Conservatives as winning the Euro vote, and they came third, so they were also disappointing

    But if we use ICM as the guide, Mike and TSE's favourite, UKIP smashed it out of the park

    All pollsters predicted the Lib Dems to be an irrelevance, and they were all correct
    It's clear that all polls that based their headline numbers on 100% certainty to vote overstated UKIP's support.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    EPG said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    As for inward investment will dry up unless we are in the EU, well just explain Ford moving some of its production from the UK (in the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

    Pitifully low wages. If that's Britain's post-EU industrial strategy, I'm out.
    I'm sure someone who cares will fetch your coat.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Ladbrokes ‏@Ladbrokes 42s

    #WorldCup: Howard Webb's post-match transport has arrived

    pic.twitter.com/XGcVdalQ7Z
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Whatever the result, its a cracking match
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    HurstLlama said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    You mean the party that was polling at 38% for the Euros but came out with 27% on the day.

    Fair enough, Mike. UKIP came in under some poll and only scored 27%. More than any other party but leave that for now. How did your beloved Liberal Democrats get on? About 7% wasn't it?
    Actually, I dont think how the Lib Dems did is relevant here.

    Mike is making the point that UKIP were disappointing because they got 27% when they had been at 38% in one poll

    Labour were at 35% with the beloved ICM, who had UKIP at 20%... so under what is referred to as "The Gold Standard" by the PB Head Honchos, UKIP over performed, and Labour had a nightmare.

    Also, one firm had the Conservatives as winning the Euro vote, and they came third, so they were also disappointing

    But if we use ICM as the guide, Mike and TSE's favourite, UKIP smashed it out of the park

    All pollsters predicted the Lib Dems to be an irrelevance, and they were all correct
    It's clear that all polls that based their headline numbers on 100% certainty to vote overstated UKIP's support.

    I agree, but that doesn't mean you can use those polls as a rub down on UKIP. Every main contender was overstated by one poll or another at some point, all it does is encourage petty playground taunts.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    edited June 2014
    EPG said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    As for inward investment will dry up unless we are in the EU, well just explain Ford moving some of its production from the UK (in the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

    Pitifully low wages. If that's Britain's post-EU industrial strategy, I'm out.
    Um, you might want to correct your 'quote' as someone else said that not me. Your editing is rubbish.

    Still it makes the point I made earlier that it is not our presence in the EU that primarily dictates our trade but the business environment that each country presents to prospective investors. Indeed our membership of the EU has actually worked against us in trade terms as we are locked into a protectionist bloc which dictates how and where we do trade with the (much larger and more profitable) rest of the world.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    If Brazil go out here, I wouldn't fancy being Howard Webb in the next few days.

    Didn't look like handball by Hulk to me
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    isam said:

    If Brazil go out here, I wouldn't fancy being Howard Webb in the next few days.

    Didn't look like handball by Hulk to me

    From the Guardian minute by minute (62 mins in)

    At the moment I'm thinking back to stories of the 1950 final referee fleeing the stadium after the final whistle, going straight to the docks and never setting foot on Brazilian soil again. Webb's major calls have been right, I think – but they haven't been popular.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/28/brazil-v-chile-world-cup-2014-live-report
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Huzzah

    Coral ‏@Coral 2m

    We are paying out on Alexis Sanchez first goalscorer bets, as the Press Association awarded the first goal as an OG. #Brazillionaire

    Beeb scoreline still credits David Luis
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    If Brazil go out here, I wouldn't fancy being Howard Webb in the next few days.

    Didn't look like handball by Hulk to me

    From the Guardian minute by minute (62 mins in)

    At the moment I'm thinking back to stories of the 1950 final referee fleeing the stadium after the final whistle, going straight to the docks and never setting foot on Brazilian soil again. Webb's major calls have been right, I think – but they haven't been popular.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/28/brazil-v-chile-world-cup-2014-live-report
    H-Dubz should follow suit...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Huzzah

    Coral ‏@Coral 2m

    We are paying out on Alexis Sanchez first goalscorer bets, as the Press Association awarded the first goal as an OG. #Brazillionaire

    Beeb scoreline still credits David Luis
    Yup, Coral are top bananas

    Coral @Coral · 12m

    As we are such good guys, we are paying out on David Luiz AND Alexis Sanchez first goalscorer bets! #Brazillionaire
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    If Brazil go out here, I wouldn't fancy being Howard Webb in the next few days.

    Didn't look like handball by Hulk to me

    From the Guardian minute by minute (62 mins in)

    At the moment I'm thinking back to stories of the 1950 final referee fleeing the stadium after the final whistle, going straight to the docks and never setting foot on Brazilian soil again. Webb's major calls have been right, I think – but they haven't been popular.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/28/brazil-v-chile-world-cup-2014-live-report
    H-Dubz should follow suit...
    He will, as a Liverpool fan, I sooooooooooooooo hope we sign Sanchez.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    If Brazil go out here, I wouldn't fancy being Howard Webb in the next few days.

    Didn't look like handball by Hulk to me

    From the Guardian minute by minute (62 mins in)

    At the moment I'm thinking back to stories of the 1950 final referee fleeing the stadium after the final whistle, going straight to the docks and never setting foot on Brazilian soil again. Webb's major calls have been right, I think – but they haven't been popular.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/28/brazil-v-chile-world-cup-2014-live-report
    H-Dubz should follow suit...
    He will, as a Liverpool fan, I sooooooooooooooo hope we sign Sanchez.

    Yeah I was thinking that, as an Arsenal fan!

    Aranguiz looks v good as well
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited June 2014
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    If Brazil go out here, I wouldn't fancy being Howard Webb in the next few days.

    Didn't look like handball by Hulk to me

    From the Guardian minute by minute (62 mins in)

    At the moment I'm thinking back to stories of the 1950 final referee fleeing the stadium after the final whistle, going straight to the docks and never setting foot on Brazilian soil again. Webb's major calls have been right, I think – but they haven't been popular.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/28/brazil-v-chile-world-cup-2014-live-report
    H-Dubz should follow suit...
    He will, as a Liverpool fan, I sooooooooooooooo hope we sign Sanchez.

    Yeah I was thinking that, as an Arsenal fan!

    Aranguiz looks v good as well
    Rumour has it, we're taking him in exchange for Suarez and £50m

    You lot are meant to be in for Vidal
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    If Brazil go out here, I wouldn't fancy being Howard Webb in the next few days.

    Didn't look like handball by Hulk to me

    From the Guardian minute by minute (62 mins in)

    At the moment I'm thinking back to stories of the 1950 final referee fleeing the stadium after the final whistle, going straight to the docks and never setting foot on Brazilian soil again. Webb's major calls have been right, I think – but they haven't been popular.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/28/brazil-v-chile-world-cup-2014-live-report
    H-Dubz should follow suit...
    He will, as a Liverpool fan, I sooooooooooooooo hope we sign Sanchez.

    Yeah I was thinking that, as an Arsenal fan!

    Aranguiz looks v good as well
    Rumour has it, we're taking him in exchange for Suarez and £50m
    Sounds like a decent deal
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    If Brazil go out here, I wouldn't fancy being Howard Webb in the next few days.

    Didn't look like handball by Hulk to me

    From the Guardian minute by minute (62 mins in)

    At the moment I'm thinking back to stories of the 1950 final referee fleeing the stadium after the final whistle, going straight to the docks and never setting foot on Brazilian soil again. Webb's major calls have been right, I think – but they haven't been popular.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/28/brazil-v-chile-world-cup-2014-live-report
    H-Dubz should follow suit...
    He will, as a Liverpool fan, I sooooooooooooooo hope we sign Sanchez.

    Yeah I was thinking that, as an Arsenal fan!

    Aranguiz looks v good as well
    Rumour has it, we're taking him in exchange for Suarez and £50m
    Sounds like a decent deal
    I'd take it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    Looks like extra time beckons :)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,199
    EPG said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    As for inward investment will dry up unless we are in the EU, well just explain Ford moving some of its production from the UK (in the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

    Pitifully low wages. If that's Britain's post-EU industrial strategy, I'm out.
    It was a move (to a country outside the EU) aided by an £80 Million pound loan from the European Investment Bank. Hardly the EU protecting our manufacturing is it?
    http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/10020273.Ford_s___80m_EU_loan_to_boost_Turkey_factory___and_close_ours/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hope Chile wins, I've got a small bet on them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Backed Chile and Laid Brazil in the ET market again.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    15 mins away from penalties??
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Both teams really flagging. Penalties look likely.
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    15 mins away from penalties??

  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 506
    Why are Brazil so popular? They've been boring since 1986.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    Or yellow :)
    Unfortunately they don't produce the graph on a logarithmic scale... *titters*
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    Penalties, first shoot-out of World Cup 2014
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    RobD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MikeK said:

    Where's the purple line? ^^

    Or yellow :)
    Unfortunately they don't produce the graph on a logarithmic scale... *titters*
    *Like*
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,834
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    EPG said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    As for inward investment will dry up unless we are in the EU, well just explain Ford moving some of its production from the UK (in the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

    Pitifully low wages. If that's Britain's post-EU industrial strategy, I'm out.
    Um, you might want to correct your 'quote' as someone else said that not me. Your editing is rubbish.

    Still it makes the point I made earlier that it is not our presence in the EU that primarily dictates our trade but the business environment that each country presents to prospective investors. Indeed our membership of the EU has actually worked against us in trade terms as we are locked into a protectionist bloc which dictates how and where we do trade with the (much larger and more profitable) rest of the world.
    It's also worth noting that the current environment - i.e. we might be in in the future, we might be out, nobody knows exactly what our relationship will be right now - is the worst possible one for business investment.

    People making investment decisions like certainty.

    I think we would be well advised to have a public decision - i.e. through a referendum - as soon as possible, because 10 years of will-we, won't-we would be far worse for the country (in terms of levels of business investment and FDI), that either of in or out.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Serena Williams Out.

    Cornet Wins 1:6 6:3 6:4
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    Are you England in disguise? Only one penalty of first four has gone in!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,456
    edited June 2014
    OMG Sudden death penalty shoot out #WorldCup Brazil vs Chile! And this is only the first game of the second round! Surely Brazil cannot go out at this stage while hosting the World Cup?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    Brazil win on penalties!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,456
    And Brazil wins while Chile are going home.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ex Notts Forest player misses penalty. Brazil go through.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,368
    Brazil win shoot out!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Well Chile @ 50-1 was a cracking value loser.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Pulpstar said:

    Well Chile @ 50-1 was a cracking value loser.

    Not for me, I got my stake back with bet365, they have a cash back if your team gets knocked out on penalties.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Good evening, everyone.

    Watched much sport today.

    Nadal continues to start matches slowly. Federer completed another ritual slaughter, and Cornet knocked Serena out.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2014
    Just came back from central London. While I was on the tube an elderly couple got on. They must have been in their 70s or 80s. I gave up my seat for the lady - several people turned their heads when they heard me offer it - and not a single one of them offered their seats for the gentleman.

    While I was standing up on the rest of the trip, what seemed like an extended Turkish family got on. Two of their kids were playing, and at one point one ran straight into me and knocked my shopping out my hand. His family just laughed and not one of them apologised to me.

    Then on the bus from the tube stop two middle-aged Somali women pushed right past me without a hint of an "excuse me".

    Crowded, multicultural London is a rude, selfish place. People need to learn some bloody manners.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,360
    viewcode said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles.
    His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:

    Con ........... 302 seats (-5 seats)
    Lab ............ 292 seats (+4 seats)
    LibDem ....... 28 seats (+1 seat)
    Others ........ 28 seats (unchanged)

    Total ..........650 seats

    Where did you get the figures for last week's prediction? I had a look at his website the other day but could only find his latest prediction. If you know where I can get a list of his previous predictions, that would be very helpful

    Good evening folks

    In a previous thread, I asked if anybody knew of an archive of Stephen Fisher's predictions: i.e links to each prediction as he makes/made it. This is so I can track him over time. I've looked at his website but it's not obvious (I had a similar problem with Hix and the EP elections). Can anybody help?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @rcs1000

    I agree. Cameron's was too far away but at least he committed to one. Miliband and Clegg are cowardly in refusing to do it. I head Miliband's interview criticising Cameron today. Just how craven is he? He goes on about how he'd "build alliances", without giving any practical difference to Cameron's approach. What a toad of a man he is.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,834
    Quiet isn't it?

    (Although my two children are wide awake and tunelessly singing songs from Frozen at full volume. PB is - comparatively - an ocean of sanity)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Socrates, when I was in China some years ago (mostly Shanghai) everywhere was packed. Continuously got bumped into, and nobody ever said (the Chinese equivalent of) 'excuse me' or 'sorry'.

    That said, the Chinese (or Chinese-descended) immigrants I've known here have been scrupulously polite and civil.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    EPG said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    As for inward investment will dry up unless we are in the EU, well just explain Ford moving some of its production from the UK (in the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

    Pitifully low wages. If that's Britain's post-EU industrial strategy, I'm out.
    It was a move (to a country outside the EU) aided by an £80 Million pound loan from the European Investment Bank. Hardly the EU protecting our manufacturing is it?
    http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/10020273.Ford_s___80m_EU_loan_to_boost_Turkey_factory___and_close_ours/
    I know a company that provided a large grant for them to start an mid-office function in Poland. In several cases the people recruited there directly replaced people in the UK, who were made redundant. Those British workers were literally paying taxes that funded their jobs being offshored.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    Tho purple line is white and heads horizontally from the 0% probability
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,555
    After the interval the next piece of music I'm due to listen to is Lark by Copland.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    In my previous post I should have said "that the EU provided a large grant"...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,834
    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    EPG said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    As for inward investment will dry up unless we are in the EU, well just explain Ford moving some of its production from the UK (in the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

    Pitifully low wages. If that's Britain's post-EU industrial strategy, I'm out.
    It was a move (to a country outside the EU) aided by an £80 Million pound loan from the European Investment Bank. Hardly the EU protecting our manufacturing is it?
    http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/10020273.Ford_s___80m_EU_loan_to_boost_Turkey_factory___and_close_ours/
    I know a company that provided a large grant for them to start an mid-office function in Poland. In several cases the people recruited there directly replaced people in the UK, who were made redundant. Those British workers were literally paying taxes that funded their jobs being offshored.
    The EIB is profitable, isn't it? (I mean it benefits from an implicit subsidy that its debts are probably guaranteed, but no money is leaving your or my pockets for that guarantee, so long as it remains profitable. And, IIRC, it has been basically profitable in almost every year since its creation in the 1950s.)

    Also, my understanding is that the EIB gives 'loans' rather than 'grants'.

    Really, it's just a bank that does big projects, and which can borrow cheaply because of its implicit state guarantee,

    I happen to dislike governments (or quasi governments like the EU) getting involved in financing things because of my libertarian principles, but this is not the EU subsidising jobs moving to Poland or Turkey, or wherever. It is merely a slightly odd infrastructure bank - that was set up to help pay for the rebuilding of postware Europe IIRC - making loans that by-and-large are repaid on time,
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    Colombia v. Uruguay just kicked off!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tho purple line is white and heads horizontally from the 0% probability

    Isn't that the yellow line? :)
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Uruguay to win on penalties 10-1.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    Fisher basically takes the current polls and assumes gradual swingback, so when it doesn't happen the prediction gradually moves towards the current polls.

    What do we think tonight's polls will have? A bump for hero Dave, a dip for for defeated Dave, or nothing very much? A small bump that reverts next week is my guess.
    Socrates said:



    Crowded, multicultural London is a rude, selfish place. People need to learn some bloody manners.

    Not my experience, in general, and I live in a busy, multicultural area and catch the bus along the Holloway Road every day. People often stand up for each other and the general culture is to rub along, a bit self-preoccupied but civil enough. Nottingham is much the same. Think you were just unlucky and perhaps projected it onto your expectations.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @rcs1000

    Yes, it is profitable. The grant I was talking about came from the structural funds, so directly from the taxpayer. Sorry I wasn't clear.

    I still don't think the quasi-public EIB should be engaged in financing the outsourcing of EU jobs however.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2014
    NickPalmer said:

    Fisher basically takes the current polls and assumes gradual swingback, so when it doesn't happen the prediction gradually moves towards the current polls.

    What do we think tonight's polls will have? A bump for hero Dave, a dip for for defeated Dave, or nothing very much? A small bump that reverts next week is my guess.

    Socrates said:



    Crowded, multicultural London is a rude, selfish place. People need to learn some bloody manners.

    Not my experience, in general, and I live in a busy, multicultural area and catch the bus along the Holloway Road every day. People often stand up for each other and the general culture is to rub along, a bit self-preoccupied but civil enough. Nottingham is much the same. Think you were just unlucky and perhaps projected it onto your expectations.

    I take the tube every workday, and it's about 50-50 whether an elderly person gets offered their seat. Given that there are about 20 people in eyeshot of them, that means only one in forty people has decent manners. It's certainly very, very different to where I grew up. You'd be socially ostracised if you didn't give it up.

    I also find that the Somalis are by far the rudest group in terms of pushing past people. (I have a friend who lives near a lot of them so I often get a bus with a lot on.) It's like they don't even have the concept of manners in their culture.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles.
    His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:

    Con ........... 302 seats (-5 seats)
    Lab ............ 292 seats (+4 seats)
    LibDem ....... 28 seats (+1 seat)
    Others ........ 28 seats (unchanged)

    Total ..........650 seats

    Where did you get the figures for last week's prediction? I had a look at his website the other day but could only find his latest prediction. If you know where I can get a list of his previous predictions, that would be very helpful

    Good evening folks

    In a previous thread, I asked if anybody knew of an archive of Stephen Fisher's predictions: i.e links to each prediction as he makes/made it. This is so I can track him over time. I've looked at his website but it's not obvious (I had a similar problem with Hix and the EP elections). Can anybody help?
    viewcode - I have Stephen Fisher's weekly numbers covering the past 3 months (from 25 March) If you care to email me at peterfromputney@gmail.com I'll send these to you.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2014
    NickPalmer said:

    Fisher basically takes the current polls and assumes gradual swingback, so when it doesn't happen the prediction gradually moves towards the current polls.

    What do we think tonight's polls will have? A bump for hero Dave, a dip for for defeated Dave, or nothing very much? A small bump that reverts next week is my guess.

    Socrates said:



    Crowded, multicultural London is a rude, selfish place. People need to learn some bloody manners.

    Not my experience, in general, and I live in a busy, multicultural area and catch the bus along the Holloway Road every day. People often stand up for each other and the general culture is to rub along, a bit self-preoccupied but civil enough. Nottingham is much the same. Think you were just unlucky and perhaps projected it onto your expectations.

    Hmmm. You think Broxtowe is sewn up, or seem to post as though it is..
    You never seem to mention polls that are against your line of thinking. Did you miss Populus.. or just ignore it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,360
    peter_from_putney said:



    viewcode - I have Stephen Fisher's weekly numbers covering the past 3 months (from 25 March) If you care to email me at peterfromputney@gmail.com I'll send these to you.

    I've emailed you, Peter. Please do not disclose my name nor address.

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Ex Notts Forest player misses penalty. Brazil go through.

    It's Nottingham (not "Notts") Forest. As an East Midlander I would have thought you'd know that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,312
    Colombia score 1-0!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Goal of the tournament,
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    David Cameron warned NHS in danger of collapse within five years

    Former Tory health minister Stephen Dorrell calls for more spending as King's Fund raises fears over shortage of doctors

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/28/cameron-warned-nhs-in-danger-of-collapse
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Eagles, I wonder if demographics now make the NHS as is simply unaffordable.

    With an ageing population we aren't getting an extra decade or two of healthy life and paying taxes, but a decade or two of ill health and costing money.

    Of course, Labour's botched GP 'negotiation' of a decade ago really didn't help, but even without that the demographic changes are only costing us more.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, Prof Fisher has in the past been quite bullish on the Tory chances, so the fact it is getting tighter is interesting.

    Stephen Fisher uses as his base UKPR's averages of the recent polls (theirs and others'), adjusting these for a number of factors in his model, including clawback by the incumbent part of Government, a "Shy Tory" factor, etc.

    The reduction of around 10-12 in his forecast of Tory seats and a largely corresponding increase in Labour seats simply reflects an approximate 2%-3% shift in the polls over recent weeks.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer

    What system do you think should replace the NHS?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Are there any polls out today >?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    SquareRoot said:



    Hmmm. You think Broxtowe is sewn up, or seem to post as though it is..
    You never seem to mention polls that are against your line of thinking. Did you miss Populus.. or just ignore it.

    I wasn't referring to Broxtowe in my post, just the overall polls (Populus seems to vary at random more than most, not sure why). Since you ask re Brox - yes, sorry, apparent complacency is annoying, and of course I realise that anything can happen. All the same, with luck it'll be OK. Other things being equal, I need to avoid having a net negative effect of UKIP's rise and gain one seventeenth of the LibDem vote last time. The LibDems aren't really bothering (they'll finally pick a candidate soon but their GE budget is £0). We're not detecting an incumbency bonus, and the Ashcroft poll suggested a 16-point Labour lead. We do 6-7 hours a week on doorsteps, the Conservatives only do phone canvassing and the odd public event. It might go pear-shaped but seems reasonably hopeful.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Cameron warned NHS in danger of collapse within five years

    Former Tory health minister Stephen Dorrell calls for more spending as King's Fund raises fears over shortage of doctors

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/28/cameron-warned-nhs-in-danger-of-collapse

    I thought it was 100 days?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Smarmeron, I said 'as is'.

    I support the basic principle, but I do believe without change it's unaffordable. I'm sure some backroom changes could save something, but we may also end up looking at taxing 'unhealthy' activities, having charges for self-inflicted or partially self-inflicted conditions (ie, drunk who falls over and hurts himself) and the removal of certain procedures altogether (nobody will miss tattoo removal being axed but other areas, IVF, say, would be more contentious).

    I doubt much of that, perhaps excepting increased taxation, will occur. Politicians will try and muddle through, the service will worsen, and eventually it'll just collapse. Well, that's my forecast.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,249
    Socrates said:

    Just came back from central London. While I was on the tube an elderly couple got on. They must have been in their 70s or 80s. I gave up my seat for the lady - several people turned their heads when they heard me offer it - and not a single one of them offered their seats for the gentleman.

    While I was standing up on the rest of the trip, what seemed like an extended Turkish family got on. Two of their kids were playing, and at one point one ran straight into me and knocked my shopping out my hand. His family just laughed and not one of them apologised to me.

    Then on the bus from the tube stop two middle-aged Somali women pushed right past me without a hint of an "excuse me".

    Crowded, multicultural London is a rude, selfish place. People need to learn some bloody manners.

    I feel oddly self-conscious offering my seat to someone more in need of it.

    I'll just get up and let them take it.

    London is a great place if you're young, or earning a very great deal of money. I live in a 4 bedroom house with 3/4 of an acre of garden. In a nice part of London, I could afford a two-bed flat, for the same price. I'm within walking distance of attractive villages, countryside and pubs.

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