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Trump now 22% favourite to be the WH2024 Republican nominee – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2021 in General
imageTrump now 22% favourite to be the WH2024 Republican nominee – politicalbetting.com

After his first big speech since leaving the White House Trump has now now moved to be clear favourite on the Smarkets exchange to get the GOP nomination for the WH2024 race.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    edited March 2021
    Let us hope something changes between now and 2024 and he is not the nominee. We don't want to go through that again.

    Oh, and first.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2021
    At the moment the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump's for the taking, which he probably will if the Biden and Harris administration has low approval ratings by then, the GOP has retaken the House in the midterms and he thinks he can win. If not and he declines he will still be Kingmaker for whoever does get the nomination. The party is his for the foreseeable future.

    Even if he faced criminal charges his base would likely make him a martyr, the French centre right's problem was it was overtaken on the populist right by Le Pen, that happened well before Sarkozy was convicted (he will spend his sentence tagged at home anyway). Trump has made clear he will not start his own populist party but keep the GOP as his main vehicle
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump's for the taking, which he probably will if the Biden and Harris administration has low approval ratings by then, the GOP has retaken the House in the midterms and he thinks he can win. If not and he declines he will still be Kingmaker for whoever does the nomination. The party is his for the foreseeable future.

    Even if he faced criminal charges his base would likely make him a martyr anyway, the French centre right's problem was it was overtaken on the populist right by Le Pen, that happened well before Sarkozy was convicted (he will spend his sentence tagged at home anyway). Trump has made clear he will not start his own populist party but keep the GOP as his main vehicle

    Re being a martyr you may well be right as the base does seem under a spell, but you have to wonder how he will perform in the witness box under oath.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Trump has to be laid at 4.5 for the nomination. Unfortunately I've already done it - at 7.5. Smug city not.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Trump has to be laid at 4.5 for the nomination. Unfortunately I've already done it - at 7.5. Smug city not.

    For the Presidency yes, not for the nomination.

    He could get a lot of limelight and more importantly grift a lot out of being the nominee even if he loses. Just think of all those rallies of adoring fans he could get, preferably staying at Trump hotels and Trump golf courses.

    Who cares if the Democrats then win the election. Brand Trump gets the cash and ego rubbing he adores.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    I think Ron DeSantis and Josh Hawley are value for the nomination. Bet on both.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited March 2021
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    So he's a big fan of Mexican Coke?

    I hear that Michael Gove prefers Columbian himself.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    One of the funniest things about today is how present and former tory heavyweights are lining up to say that imposing the highest taxes in decades on cast iron blue voters to fund gargantuan state spending is actually a really conservative thing to do.

    Its a bit like one of those Bird and Fortune sketches.


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump's for the taking, which he probably will if the Biden and Harris administration has low approval ratings by then, the GOP has retaken the House in the midterms and he thinks he can win. If not and he declines he will still be Kingmaker for whoever does get the nomination. The party is his for the foreseeable future.

    Even if he faced criminal charges his base would likely make him a martyr, the French centre right's problem was it was overtaken on the populist right by Le Pen, that happened well before Sarkozy was convicted (he will spend his sentence tagged at home anyway). Trump has made clear he will not start his own populist party but keep the GOP as his main vehicle

    Trump is 74 today, and will be 78 by the time the next election rolls around. And he's not exactly a paragon of health today - he's overweight, takes little to no exercise, and eats nothing but junk food. I suspect his blood pressure isn't all it could be.

    Whether by simple decline, illness or worse, he may not be in a position to run for President next time around.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    So he's a big fan of Mexican Coke?

    I hear that Michael Gove prefers Columbian himself.
    They should make a new series of Narcos about the trade in Mexican Coke, made with pure cane sugar.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    Trump has to be laid at 4.5 for the nomination. Unfortunately I've already done it - at 7.5. Smug city not.

    For the Presidency yes, not for the nomination.

    He could get a lot of limelight and more importantly grift a lot out of being the nominee even if he loses. Just think of all those rallies of adoring fans he could get, preferably staying at Trump hotels and Trump golf courses.

    Who cares if the Democrats then win the election. Brand Trump gets the cash and ego rubbing he adores.
    No chance imo of another term as POTUS and I'm pretty confident he won't be the GOP nominee either. But I do wish I'd held off laying him till now. There's a big difference between 7.5 and 4.5. Ah well. I was due a poor call. Just hope it's not the start of a negative trend.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    One of the funniest things about today is how present and former tory heavyweights are lining up to say that imposing the highest taxes in decades on cast iron blue voters to fund gargantuan state spending is actually a really conservative thing to do.

    Its a bit like one of those Bird and Fortune sketches.
    And Labour opposing asking big business to cough up a bit more. Hall of mirrors.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump's for the taking, which he probably will if the Biden and Harris administration has low approval ratings by then, the GOP has retaken the House in the midterms and he thinks he can win. If not and he declines he will still be Kingmaker for whoever does get the nomination. The party is his for the foreseeable future.

    Even if he faced criminal charges his base would likely make him a martyr, the French centre right's problem was it was overtaken on the populist right by Le Pen, that happened well before Sarkozy was convicted (he will spend his sentence tagged at home anyway). Trump has made clear he will not start his own populist party but keep the GOP as his main vehicle

    Trump is 74 today, and will be 78 by the time the next election rolls around. And he's not exactly a paragon of health today - he's overweight, takes little to no exercise, and eats nothing but junk food. I suspect his blood pressure isn't all it could be.

    Whether by simple decline, illness or worse, he may not be in a position to run for President next time around.
    What odds though?

    33% chance he is too unwell to run.
    50% he chooses to run if fit to do so.
    70% he wins the nomination if fit to run.

    Works out just under 1/4 chance that he gets the nomination. The odds seem fair to me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    The best tactical thing "Alliance for Unity" could do is to disband never to be heard of again.

    In 2016 UKIP got 2% of the List vote and a grand total of 0 seats. Great job. The opinion polls don't put the vanity project Alliance for Unity ahead of where UKIP was. Anyone voting on the List for Alliance for Unity are throwing away their vote making it more likely the SNP or Greens take the seat instead.

    Wrong.

    Not only are they encouraging tactical voting which is pivotal to beat the SNP on the constituency vote, as they are not standing on the constituency vote but only on the list they may also take list seats that might otherwise go to the Greens or Independence for Scotland Party who are also only standing on the list
    Wrong.

    They won't meet any threshold required to win on the list vote so all they are doing is taking list votes away from the unionist parties that might actually win seats on the list.

    UKIP got 2% of the list vote in 2016 and zero seat. These aren't even registering with the opinion pollsters and aren't going to get any seats at all. Pure distilled wasted votes.

    What percentage of the vote is required to win a list seat? They're not going to get close that figure.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Trump has to be laid at 4.5 for the nomination. Unfortunately I've already done it - at 7.5. Smug city not.

    For the Presidency yes, not for the nomination.

    He could get a lot of limelight and more importantly grift a lot out of being the nominee even if he loses. Just think of all those rallies of adoring fans he could get, preferably staying at Trump hotels and Trump golf courses.

    Who cares if the Democrats then win the election. Brand Trump gets the cash and ego rubbing he adores.
    No chance imo of another term as POTUS and I'm pretty confident he won't be the GOP nominee either. But I do wish I'd held off laying him till now. There's a big difference between 7.5 and 4.5. Ah well. I was due a poor call. Just hope it's not the start of a negative trend.
    No chance of POTUS but do you not think he might desire the adoring crowds of fans chanting his name?

    He gets a high from the campaign trail and if its not him then there'll be someone else pulling the crowds and he'll be left behind. There's a reasonable chance his vanity sees him run again - and a reasonable chance the GOP is too weak to resist his siren call.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump's for the taking, which he probably will if the Biden and Harris administration has low approval ratings by then, the GOP has retaken the House in the midterms and he thinks he can win. If not and he declines he will still be Kingmaker for whoever does get the nomination. The party is his for the foreseeable future.

    Even if he faced criminal charges his base would likely make him a martyr, the French centre right's problem was it was overtaken on the populist right by Le Pen, that happened well before Sarkozy was convicted (he will spend his sentence tagged at home anyway). Trump has made clear he will not start his own populist party but keep the GOP as his main vehicle

    Trump is 74 today, and will be 78 by the time the next election rolls around. And he's not exactly a paragon of health today - he's overweight, takes little to no exercise, and eats nothing but junk food. I suspect his blood pressure isn't all it could be.

    Whether by simple decline, illness or worse, he may not be in a position to run for President next time around.
    What odds though?

    33% chance he is too unwell to run.
    50% he chooses to run if fit to do so.
    70% he wins the nomination if fit to run.

    Works out just under 1/4 chance that he gets the nomination. The odds seem fair to me.
    That doesn't come out to anywhere near 1/4 (i.e. 25%) :smile:

    .33 * .5 *.7 = 11.5% = 9/1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    kinabalu said:

    Trump has to be laid at 4.5 for the nomination. Unfortunately I've already done it - at 7.5. Smug city not.

    I'm waiting for those odds to shorten further.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump's for the taking, which he probably will if the Biden and Harris administration has low approval ratings by then, the GOP has retaken the House in the midterms and he thinks he can win. If not and he declines he will still be Kingmaker for whoever does get the nomination. The party is his for the foreseeable future.

    Even if he faced criminal charges his base would likely make him a martyr, the French centre right's problem was it was overtaken on the populist right by Le Pen, that happened well before Sarkozy was convicted (he will spend his sentence tagged at home anyway). Trump has made clear he will not start his own populist party but keep the GOP as his main vehicle

    Trump is 74 today, and will be 78 by the time the next election rolls around. And he's not exactly a paragon of health today - he's overweight, takes little to no exercise, and eats nothing but junk food. I suspect his blood pressure isn't all it could be.

    Whether by simple decline, illness or worse, he may not be in a position to run for President next time around.
    What odds though?

    33% chance he is too unwell to run.
    50% he chooses to run if fit to do so.
    70% he wins the nomination if fit to run.

    Works out just under 1/4 chance that he gets the nomination. The odds seem fair to me.
    That doesn't come out to anywhere near 1/4 (i.e. 25%) :smile:

    .33 * .5 *.7 = 11.5% = 9/1
    33% he is too unwell.

    (1-0.33)*.5*.7 = 23.5%
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    The giggling and inanities remind me oddly of Beavis and Butthead.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited March 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump's for the taking, which he probably will if the Biden and Harris administration has low approval ratings by then, the GOP has retaken the House in the midterms and he thinks he can win. If not and he declines he will still be Kingmaker for whoever does get the nomination. The party is his for the foreseeable future.

    Even if he faced criminal charges his base would likely make him a martyr, the French centre right's problem was it was overtaken on the populist right by Le Pen, that happened well before Sarkozy was convicted (he will spend his sentence tagged at home anyway). Trump has made clear he will not start his own populist party but keep the GOP as his main vehicle

    Trump is 74 today, and will be 78 by the time the next election rolls around. And he's not exactly a paragon of health today - he's overweight, takes little to no exercise, and eats nothing but junk food. I suspect his blood pressure isn't all it could be.

    Whether by simple decline, illness or worse, he may not be in a position to run for President next time around.
    What odds though?

    33% chance he is too unwell to run.
    50% he chooses to run if fit to do so.
    70% he wins the nomination if fit to run.

    Works out just under 1/4 chance that he gets the nomination. The odds seem fair to me.
    That doesn't come out to anywhere near 1/4 (i.e. 25%) :smile:

    .33 * .5 *.7 = 11.5% = 9/1
    No, your first term should be 0.67 - the 0.33 is the likelihood he's too unwell to run at all.
    So 0.67*.5*.7 = 23.5% chance.

    Though the 0.5 is way too low - I'd put it around 90%.
    But then you'd need to include a 10-20% chance of his being a convicted felon.
  • Our surgery has just phoned our 46 year old son to attend on Friday for his covid vaccination

    Seems getting younger by the day
  • Scott_xP said:
    Brexit is over and time to move on
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited March 2021
    This is an absolute DISGRACE.

    Calling Shaun Bailey a top Tory, ffs guys.

    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1366791205204418566?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    The for now sketchy ARIA details are here:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bill-introduced-to-create-high-risk-high-reward-research-agency-aria

    I'd like to see more before I criticise, but I'm not sure they've taken on board all the lessons from the US version.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    This is an absolute DISGRACE.

    Shaun Bailey a top Tory, ffs.

    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1366791205204418566?s=20

    Is that his economic stimulus plan?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited March 2021

    Scott_xP said:
    Brexit is over and time to move on
    Its ramifications, and how they play out, will be with us for quite some time, so perhaps drop your obsession with Scott ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749

    This is an absolute DISGRACE.

    Shaun Bailey a top Tory, ffs.

    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1366791205204418566?s=20

    Is that his economic stimulus plan?
    Economic stimulants presumably.
  • Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Brexit is over and time to move on
    Its ramifications, and how they play out, will be with us for quite some time, so perhaps drop your obsession with Scott ?
    Maybe Scott drops his 24/7 anger to brexit
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837

    This is an absolute DISGRACE.

    Calling Shaun Bailey a top Tory, ffs guys.

    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1366791205204418566?s=20

    Depends at what level it was set ;)
  • Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Scott_xP said:
    Brexit is over and time to move on
    LOL.

    Hiroo Onoda over there has a few more years of battle left in him.

    Let him stew in the malaria-ridden swamp of his own production.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Scott_xP said:
    Brexit is over and time to move on
    Brexiteers are often told they shouldn't be commenting on internal affairs of the EU such as vaccine rollout. Why doesn't the same apply in the other direction to eurocrats?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Brexit is over and time to move on
    Its ramifications, and how they play out, will be with us for quite some time, so perhaps drop your obsession with Scott ?
    Maybe Scott drops his 24/7 anger to brexit
    Maybe that's his business ?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Scott_xP said:
    Brexit is over and time to move on
    Brexit's red tape is turning Britain into a sclerotic commercial backwater though. Boris can't do anything, but one of his successors will have to wage war upon the life-sucking bureaucracy he imposed. Otherwise we'll slowly go under. This will be the defining political issue in the coming years, and we're in desperate need of a white knight on horseback.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    kinabalu said:

    One of the funniest things about today is how present and former tory heavyweights are lining up to say that imposing the highest taxes in decades on cast iron blue voters to fund gargantuan state spending is actually a really conservative thing to do.

    Its a bit like one of those Bird and Fortune sketches.
    And Labour opposing asking big business to cough up a bit more. Hall of mirrors.
    Legendary modesty aside, I predicted before the 2019 election this would happen and supporters of each side should be ready to reverse ferret.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Scott_xP said:
    Brexit is over and time to move on
    Brexit's red tape is turning Britain into a sclerotic commercial backwater though. Boris can't do anything, but one of his successors will have to wage war upon the life-sucking bureaucracy he imposed. Otherwise we'll slowly go under. This will be the defining political issue in the coming years, and we're in desperate need of a white knight on horseback.
    I'm sure those hikes in corporation tax tomorrow will help...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_xP said:
    Brexit is over and time to move on
    Brexit's red tape is turning Britain into a sclerotic commercial backwater though. Boris can't do anything, but one of his successors will have to wage war upon the life-sucking bureaucracy he imposed. Otherwise we'll slowly go under. This will be the defining political issue in the coming years, and we're in desperate need of a white knight on horseback.
    Nice try.

    I think you'll find that Boris is nimbly going from strength to strength while the sclerotic European Union we have left has been exposed to everyone now with their vaccine debacle.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump's for the taking, which he probably will if the Biden and Harris administration has low approval ratings by then, the GOP has retaken the House in the midterms and he thinks he can win. If not and he declines he will still be Kingmaker for whoever does get the nomination. The party is his for the foreseeable future.

    Even if he faced criminal charges his base would likely make him a martyr, the French centre right's problem was it was overtaken on the populist right by Le Pen, that happened well before Sarkozy was convicted (he will spend his sentence tagged at home anyway). Trump has made clear he will not start his own populist party but keep the GOP as his main vehicle

    Trump is 74 today, and will be 78 by the time the next election rolls around. And he's not exactly a paragon of health today - he's overweight, takes little to no exercise, and eats nothing but junk food. I suspect his blood pressure isn't all it could be.

    Whether by simple decline, illness or worse, he may not be in a position to run for President next time around.
    What odds though?

    33% chance he is too unwell to run.
    50% he chooses to run if fit to do so.
    70% he wins the nomination if fit to run.

    Works out just under 1/4 chance that he gets the nomination. The odds seem fair to me.
    That doesn't come out to anywhere near 1/4 (i.e. 25%) :smile:

    .33 * .5 *.7 = 11.5% = 9/1
    33% he is too unwell.

    (1-0.33)*.5*.7 = 23.5%

    OOPS.

    My bad.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

  • Rishi announcing big welcome investments in Holyhead , Neath Port Talbot and City growth deals for Wales tomorrow
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    The paperwork is impossible to complete?
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    And why tell me can you not visit Italy and Greece
  • malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

    Can you explain Malc what this says in plain Scots (English)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    Why can't you go? (Not been following)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Fishing said:

    The giggling and inanities remind me oddly of Beavis and Butthead.
    Just as I reduce my Coke intake to six litres a week, Rishi plans to make it compulsory.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    What paperwork are you incapable of filling in?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    .
    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.
    [snip]

    Blimey. I've never seen a legal opinion like that before. Absolutely extraordinary.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,261
    Sturgeon is gone. Surely
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited March 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    You need a tour? The last time I was in Pompeii I overheard a guide telling his adult charges in all solemnity that they were standing in the Great Palaestra, which according to him derived from a Latin word meaning 'palace'.

    I still regret not staging an intervention...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_xP said:
    Scott's daily reminder that some weird bloke on twitter who employs 2 people and spreads some paper over a desk and uploads a photo is not representative of 'UK Business'.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    .

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.
    [snip]

    Blimey. I've never seen a legal opinion like that before. Absolutely extraordinary.
    Can you translate it from legalese, Richard? Thanks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Scott_xP said:
    You think Germans are happy that they are exporting 30% less to the UK? That's the EU's big win out of Brexit? lol.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,088

    This is an absolute DISGRACE.

    Shaun Bailey a top Tory, ffs.

    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1366791205204418566?s=20

    Is that his economic stimulus plan?
    Wonder who has more relevant experience - a youth worker with a 20 year career, or a Mirror journo?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder, was there anything else happening at the start of this year that might make comparisons difficult?

    Asking for a friend.
  • .

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.
    [snip]

    Blimey. I've never seen a legal opinion like that before. Absolutely extraordinary.
    Well some of the arguments in some of the Trump cases to stop the steal were absolutely extraordinary, but in Great Britain I'm racking my head for something similar to that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    Scott_xP said:
    You think Germans are happy that they are exporting 30% less to the UK? That's the EU's big win out of Brexit? lol.....
    As a small point of order, the Germans have not yet released January trade numbers (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Foreign-Trade/_node.html), so I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers were "estimates".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,261
    Kinda weird that the PB Nats aren't focused on the unfolding and astonishing revelation is Salmondgate. Indeed Theuniondivvie seems unusually focussed on.... the London mayoral elections

    If Sturgeon can survive this slam-dunk evidence of conspiracy, then she can survive anything, and the Scots may as well vote once, for her, as President for Life (and perhaps beyond) and have done with democracy and the rule of law
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

    Can you explain Malc what this says in plain Scots (English)
    It means that the government legal team , top QC in country and his assistant had made statements to Salmond's legal team and the judge that they had given all the evidence. Weeks later he finds that they have lied , and more than once and that the last whopper is proof that the Investigating officer had lots of meetings and coaching with the complainant before she officially submitted the complaint. Believe somewhere they had actually shared the proposed process as well with her. At this they threatened to walk as they were now in danger of getting it in the neck.
    As Salmond said they had been stringing out the judicial review against external lawyers advice and lying to their QC's hoping that the court case would hurry up and collapse the judicial review before they were found out. Hence judge being less than happy and awarding Salmond more than £600K.
    They are still trying to hide the external advice , hence threat of No Confidence vote if they don't put it out and not just what Swinney thinks is key.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder, was there anything else happening at the start of this year that might make comparisons difficult?

    Asking for a friend.
    Well comparisons to a year ago are next to useless, but month on month, less so, even if you take into account stockpiling.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    edited March 2021
    The Wall Street Journal Washington Post is reporting that Denmark and Austria are to buy excess CV19 vaccine doses from Israel: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/02/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/#link-LKXNUEQGPBACJPUZBNTX5GMFOI
  • rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You think Germans are happy that they are exporting 30% less to the UK? That's the EU's big win out of Brexit? lol.....
    As a small point of order, the Germans have not yet released January trade numbers (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Foreign-Trade/_node.html), so I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers were "estimates".
    It's also compared to the month at the end of the transition period; weren't we heavily stockpiling then?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump's for the taking, which he probably will if the Biden and Harris administration has low approval ratings by then, the GOP has retaken the House in the midterms and he thinks he can win. If not and he declines he will still be Kingmaker for whoever does get the nomination. The party is his for the foreseeable future.

    Even if he faced criminal charges his base would likely make him a martyr, the French centre right's problem was it was overtaken on the populist right by Le Pen, that happened well before Sarkozy was convicted (he will spend his sentence tagged at home anyway). Trump has made clear he will not start his own populist party but keep the GOP as his main vehicle

    Trump is 74 today, and will be 78 by the time the next election rolls around. And he's not exactly a paragon of health today - he's overweight, takes little to no exercise, and eats nothing but junk food. I suspect his blood pressure isn't all it could be.

    Whether by simple decline, illness or worse, he may not be in a position to run for President next time around.
    What odds though?

    33% chance he is too unwell to run.
    50% he chooses to run if fit to do so.
    70% he wins the nomination if fit to run.

    Works out just under 1/4 chance that he gets the nomination. The odds seem fair to me.
    That doesn't come out to anywhere near 1/4 (i.e. 25%) :smile:

    .33 * .5 *.7 = 11.5% = 9/1
    33% he is too unwell.

    (1-0.33)*.5*.7 = 23.5%

    OOPS.

    My bad.

    As written, surely it is (1-0.33)*.7 = 47%

    I am sure it was a typo, and should have read "70% he wins the nomination if he runs"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Leon said:
    Salmond is going to finish them off big time, they can only hide the facts for so long. Just needs Aberdein's evidence and their goose is cooked.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Scott_xP said:
    You think Germans are happy that they are exporting 30% less to the UK? That's the EU's big win out of Brexit? lol.....
    If the German's can't sell us any cars (and the Italians any Prosecco) then they won't have money to buy our stuff. It's a death spiral.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    .

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.
    [snip]

    Blimey. I've never seen a legal opinion like that before. Absolutely extraordinary.
    I think I may have mentioned that my experience of Roddy's opinions is that you are not left in any doubt about what he thinks.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    How was Sturgeon even stupid enough to get herself in this position?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    And why tell me can you not visit Italy and Greece
    Doesn't seem to be an answer. I am genuinely mystified by the problem (i.e. I don't know what it is.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You think Germans are happy that they are exporting 30% less to the UK? That's the EU's big win out of Brexit? lol.....
    As a small point of order, the Germans have not yet released January trade numbers (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Foreign-Trade/_node.html), so I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers were "estimates".
    It's also compared to the month at the end of the transition period; weren't we heavily stockpiling then?
    Yes and you can't necessarily compare December to January in general because December is a really key month for consumer purchases while January has become less important since we imported Black Friday from the US.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Is it true that Sturgeon's daily briefings are going to continue up until polling day? In what world is that fair?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    You need a tour? The last time I was in Pompeii I overheard a guide telling his adult charges in all solemnity that they were standing in the Great Palaestra, which according to him derived from a Latin word meaning 'palace'.

    I still regret not staging an intervention...
    I can read the guidebooks fine, thanks - though my Attic is too rusty to read Pausanias in the original. It's partly the practical side and partly getting knowledgeable specialist lecturers rather than dragomans or the modern equivalents with stuff such as you cite.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    What paperwork are you incapable of filling in?
    The employment paperwork for the guides and lecturers. Not me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,261
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:
    Salmond is going to finish them off big time, they can only hide the facts for so long. Just needs Aberdein's evidence and their goose is cooked.
    Yes. Aberdein's evidence is key

    Can there be anyone left in Scotland who seriously doubts there was a conspiracy, and then a cover-up?

    I get that you can be a true believer in indy, and think the cause is greater than any man or woman, so the SNP still deserves your vote. That's fair enough. You hold your nose and tick the box. Sturgeon will be gone sooner or later

    But I do not believe a sane, intelligent person can now doubt all this evidence, which increases daily
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    .

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.
    [snip]

    Blimey. I've never seen a legal opinion like that before. Absolutely extraordinary.
    Can you translate it from legalese, Richard? Thanks.
    I guess any translation needs to come in the form of a Malcom Tucker rant.
  • RobD said:

    Is it true that Sturgeon's daily briefings are going to continue up until polling day? In what world is that fair?

    The world where every single question she's asked is about Salmond and her breaches of the ministerial code.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Surprised it's so low. Hopefully a good sign.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You think Germans are happy that they are exporting 30% less to the UK? That's the EU's big win out of Brexit? lol.....
    As a small point of order, the Germans have not yet released January trade numbers (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Foreign-Trade/_node.html), so I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers were "estimates".
    It's also compared to the month at the end of the transition period; weren't we heavily stockpiling then?
    Basically, I wouldn't pay any attention to these numbers until Autumn, because Coronavirus, stockpiling, and general getting used to new processes.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    What paperwork are you incapable of filling in?
    The employment paperwork for the guides and lecturers. Not me.
    So they need to fill in the paperwork. I had to get a visa when I worked in NZ. Not a problem. I'm not seeing anb issue here.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You think Germans are happy that they are exporting 30% less to the UK? That's the EU's big win out of Brexit? lol.....
    As a small point of order, the Germans have not yet released January trade numbers (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Foreign-Trade/_node.html), so I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers were "estimates".
    It's also compared to the month at the end of the transition period; weren't we heavily stockpiling then?
    Yes and you can't necessarily compare December to January in general because December is a really key month for consumer purchases while January has become less important since we imported Black Friday from the US.
    And while it *may* be that numbers are seasonally adjusted, they probably aren't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,261

    RobD said:

    Is it true that Sturgeon's daily briefings are going to continue up until polling day? In what world is that fair?

    The world where every single question she's asked is about Salmond and her breaches of the ministerial code.
    There will come a time when these pressers damage her, because they will ALL be ALL about Salmondgate, and having used them before to put her position, and attack Salmond, she can't now turn around and pretend they are off-piste.

    So they will be daily interrogations about WHY she lied and HOW and WHY she won't resign. Dreadful
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    What paperwork are you incapable of filling in?
    The employment paperwork for the guides and lecturers. Not me.
    You think because of Brexit there will be no guides at the various tourist attractions in Europe?
This discussion has been closed.