Given total vaccinated + previously had it is over 50%, severely restricting the worst possible R, the current level of infected people, and the speed with which first doses are being rolled out, it's getting extremely hard to model a break scenario anymore for the NHS without picking inputs which are clearly false. By Easter it will be completely impossible .
(in response to RobD given it won't let me reply directly)
Even with half immune (which I think is a huge overestimate when you look at the ONS antibody surveys) if you let it spread freely without restriction it would overwhelm the NHS.
I thought it was explained by demographics? You can't force people to have it.
It hasn't been "explained" by anyone or anything.
IF there is poor take up in Newham and I'm not commenting on that one way or the other, I'd expect the invitations to be moving more quickly down the population. Perhaps I should be asking if there has been poor take up in Oxfordshire and Surrey (except I know from the figures there hasn't)?
I don't know why Newham is lagging behind - 14% of the adult population vaccinated by last Thursday compared with 40% in Devon and while I cheerfully accept I live in a "younger" part of the world, the fact only 71% of over 65s had been vaccinated in Newham compared with over 90% in Surrey Heartlands also tells a story.
The vaccine rollout has gone spectacularly well in some areas, indeed many areas but in other areas it has not and is not going so well. I'm only pointing out the anomalies and trying to find some credible explanation.
Do you have a local paper that might ask these questions?
And I again point you to the demographics of Newham compared to Devon. It's widely reported there is lower take up amongst minorities, which explains why there is the difference in the fraction of over 75s.
I'm not going to argue the demographics except to say among those under 65, nearly 20% had been vaccinated in Devon by the end of last week compared with less than 10% in Newham.
Are we dealing with vaccine going to waste in Newham because of refusal - if so, why aren't other people being contacted? - or are we dealing with insufficient supplies getting to Newham because it has a younger population and the priority has been to vaccinate the elderly?
And I again point you to the demographics of Newham compared to Devon. It's widely reported there is lower take up amongst minorities, which explains why there is the difference in the fraction of over 75s.
I'm not going to argue the demographics except to say among those under 65, nearly 20% had been vaccinated in Devon by the end of last week compared with less than 10% in Newham.
Are we dealing with vaccine going to waste in Newham because of refusal - if so, why aren't other people being contacted? - or are we dealing with insufficient supplies getting to Newham because it has a younger population and the priority has been to vaccinate the elderly?
But those fractions can again be explained by the demographics of the two areas. It is established that minorities have a significantly reduced take up.
As for vaccine waste, is there any? If a site uses less than requested one week, it won't get as much the second week since it can use what is left over.
I note the 54-year olds David Cameron and Jeremy Hunt both got their Covid vaccinations today while this 60+ in East London continues not to hear a thing.
The Daily Mail (so it must be true) opines this fuels the suggestions the vaccination rollout has become a postcode lottery.
As I've been saying this for weeks, I can only assume the Daily Mail is akin to one of the slower dinosaurs from the Jurassic or Cretaceous epochs - the news reached the body but takes a good while to reach the brain.
There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.
Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.
Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
Just seen the new Labour leader on Ch 4 News. A very reasonable and impressive woman. A nice change from the last few who were above all else opportunists. My guess is Nicola will walk through this her reputation intact. The desperation of the Tories (more English ones than Scottish) tells you how much they fear her
The new Labour leader is a man.
I think you need to be a little more precise about what exactly you mean by the word "man".
I was uselessly hoping for some retraction, apology, or even the slightest show of regret for their irresponsible and ignorant AZ coverage a month or so back. Or maybe an unapologetic promotion of the AZ vaccine's recently reported figures. Perhaps a suggestion that the UK delayed second dose might be the way to go.
But no. No mention of AZ or the "UK method" that I can see.
Did you check the reporter's twitter feed? Maybe the mea culpa was on there (although I doubt it).
I check it now and then and he (washingtonski) doesn't appear to have made any concession at all...
Just checked again and he has still not referred to his earlier story, nor any of the data refuting it.
I doubt he thinks he did anything wrong. Like a good lap dog reporter he placed the story he was briefed and it did the job. It was always nonsense and even more so so now with real world data. But that wasn’t the point.
If that was so casually why then it was criminally irresposible. At mass manslaughter level.
Yes, but the real culprit was almost certainly the source who planted the story.
Absolutely. But can you imagine if the FT had printed a similar story that the journalist and editor wouldn't have been fired, and that the MP wouldn't at least be being hunted like the Brazilian variant?
Given total vaccinated + previously had it is over 50%, severely restricting the worst possible R, the current level of infected people, and the speed with which first doses are being rolled out, it's getting extremely hard to model a break scenario anymore for the NHS without picking inputs which are clearly false. By Easter it will be completely impossible .
(in response to RobD given it won't let me reply directly)
Even with half immune (which I think is a huge overestimate when you look at the ONS antibody surveys) if you let it spread freely without restriction it would overwhelm the NHS.
No, with half immune you're looking at a worst case doubling rate considerably longer than seen in the first 2 waves, starting from a pretty low base, with the most likely to be hospitalised off the table and the virus fighting a losing battle against continued vaccine roll out. You can just about create a scenario where hospital occupancy could regain the Jan peak if you were to let everyone go crazy right now. By Easter there will simply be no chance.
Except that ignores the suppression of the spread that we will see. The virus should be very much reduced in prevalence in a couple of months. It’s already happening. That is the true herd immunity.
The worry is that the ~5% of those that require hospitalisation will completely clog up the NHS.
That plus the minority of those already vaccinated who will fail to respond adequately and are still at risk, plus the threat of Long Covid amongst the young and of new mutations. There are sufficient reasons to resist the pressure to just let it rip once the over 50s are done, and keep plugging away for another few weeks.
Anyway, if all goes according to plan then there'll be significant easing next month and most of the remaining restrictions bite the dust in May. There's not that long left to go, even if it can still feel like it right now.
(EDIT: I'm having a weird problem posting nested comments wherein this stupid system comes up with the message 'Body is 1 character too short'. Don't know if anyone else is getting that.)
That’s right. You tackle this thing from both ends - vaccine and decreasing transmission. While the news about T-Cell immunity to variants today makes me less worried about mutations, if for no other reasons than the likes of Foxy really need a break mean we really really need to empty the hospitals.
(The ‘Body is 1 character too short’ thing is as bizarre as it is infuriating)
But those fractions can again be explained by the demographics of the two areas. It is established that minorities have a significantly reduced take up.
As for vaccine waste, is there any? If a site uses less than requested one week, it won't get as much the second week since it can use what is left over.
Neither you nor I can assert the lower numbers of vaccinations among older people in Newham can be wholly attributed to refusals. There are an estimated 27,000 people over 65 in Newham (compared with 248,000 between 16 and 64). It may be (and I don't rule it out) there have been substantial numbers of refusals but we can't prove that because the numbers refusing the vaccine aren't published.
Your second point is more interesting - if we are saying (let's use some crude numbers), an area gets 10,000 doses for the week and only gives out 7,500 for whatever reason, does that mean it only gets 7,500 next week?
Fair enough but if there were widespread refusals, I'd expect those further down the population to be contacted to see if they were available at short notice (I think this has happened elsewhere) to use the remaining 2,500 doses as quickly as possible.
Given total vaccinated + previously had it is over 50%, severely restricting the worst possible R, the current level of infected people, and the speed with which first doses are being rolled out, it's getting extremely hard to model a break scenario anymore for the NHS without picking inputs which are clearly false. By Easter it will be completely impossible .
(in response to RobD given it won't let me reply directly)
Even with half immune (which I think is a huge overestimate when you look at the ONS antibody surveys) if you let it spread freely without restriction it would overwhelm the NHS.
No, with half immune you're looking at a worst case doubling rate considerably longer than seen in the first 2 waves, starting from a pretty low base, with the most likely to be hospitalised off the table and the virus fighting a losing battle against continued vaccine roll out. You can just about create a scenario where hospital occupancy could regain the Jan peak if you were to let everyone go crazy right now. By Easter there will simply be no chance.
I'm not sure where you are getting this half of all under 65s immune stat from? Infection surveys show it is only at 1/4 for the entire population, which will be flattered by the vaccination of the elderly.
Apple has, historically, been quite poor at semiconductor design.
Errr Apple has designed it's own CPU cores since the A6 Swift, and has designed dozens of them now; big CPUS, LITTLE CPUs and even the CPUs used in things like the Apple Watch and embedded within the SoCs for things like security and storage controllers. Apple are not quite poor at semiconductor design, they are in fact amongst the very best CPU designers going. Qualcomm just spent a small fortune aquiring a new company that hadn't shipped anything, Nuvia, because it was founded by Apple Arm CPU alumni and they were making big claims about delivering the highest performance CPUs for servers.
You completely missed that I said 'historically'. Apple has been in business since 1977, and the processors under discussion were designed in the late 80s and early 90s. Apple being able to do semi design to any kind of standard is a relatively recent occurance.
But those fractions can again be explained by the demographics of the two areas. It is established that minorities have a significantly reduced take up.
As for vaccine waste, is there any? If a site uses less than requested one week, it won't get as much the second week since it can use what is left over.
Neither you nor I can assert the lower numbers of vaccinations among older people in Newham can be wholly attributed to refusals. There are an estimated 27,000 people over 65 in Newham (compared with 248,000 between 16 and 64). It may be (and I don't rule it out) there have been substantial numbers of refusals but we can't prove that because the numbers refusing the vaccine aren't published.
Your second point is more interesting - if we are saying (let's use some crude numbers), an area gets 10,000 doses for the week and only gives out 7,500 for whatever reason, does that mean it only gets 7,500 next week?
Fair enough but if there were widespread refusals, I'd expect those further down the population to be contacted to see if they were available at short notice (I think this has happened elsewhere) to use the remaining 2,500 doses as quickly as possible.
But we do know refusals are higher amongst minorities. Wouldn't it make sense that an area with a high proportion of minorities would also see a high proportion of refusals?
As for moving down the list? Then you have the opposite problem of under 50s being vaccinated before the elderly are finished elsewhere. I get the impression the idea is to move down the list roughly in tandem.
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Newham has the lowest influenza vaccine uptake for schoolchildren in London, and what seems like the entire country. I think my assumption is a safe one.
Given total vaccinated + previously had it is over 50%, severely restricting the worst possible R, the current level of infected people, and the speed with which first doses are being rolled out, it's getting extremely hard to model a break scenario anymore for the NHS without picking inputs which are clearly false. By Easter it will be completely impossible .
(in response to RobD given it won't let me reply directly)
Even with half immune (which I think is a huge overestimate when you look at the ONS antibody surveys) if you let it spread freely without restriction it would overwhelm the NHS.
No, with half immune you're looking at a worst case doubling rate considerably longer than seen in the first 2 waves, starting from a pretty low base, with the most likely to be hospitalised off the table and the virus fighting a losing battle against continued vaccine roll out. You can just about create a scenario where hospital occupancy could regain the Jan peak if you were to let everyone go crazy right now. By Easter there will simply be no chance.
I'm not sure where you are getting this half of all under 65s immune stat from? Infection surveys show it is only at 1/4 for the entire population, which will be flattered by the vaccination of the elderly.
The anti-body survey out today was from samples covering 14th Jan to 11th Feb - it's 5 weeks out of date already, and given the number declined through the summer, it clearly understates the T-cell immunity of the unvaccinated population.
If you take the number of people vaccinated 2 weeks or more ago you get 27% of the adult population. The antibody rate in the sub-69 English population in the survey is already over 20%, and the T-cells quirk at least offsets any population overlap in the 2 groups. If we're not at 50% yet we definitely will be inside a fortnight.
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Given total vaccinated + previously had it is over 50%, severely restricting the worst possible R, the current level of infected people, and the speed with which first doses are being rolled out, it's getting extremely hard to model a break scenario anymore for the NHS without picking inputs which are clearly false. By Easter it will be completely impossible .
(in response to RobD given it won't let me reply directly)
Even with half immune (which I think is a huge overestimate when you look at the ONS antibody surveys) if you let it spread freely without restriction it would overwhelm the NHS.
No, with half immune you're looking at a worst case doubling rate considerably longer than seen in the first 2 waves, starting from a pretty low base, with the most likely to be hospitalised off the table and the virus fighting a losing battle against continued vaccine roll out. You can just about create a scenario where hospital occupancy could regain the Jan peak if you were to let everyone go crazy right now. By Easter there will simply be no chance.
I'm not sure where you are getting this half of all under 65s immune stat from? Infection surveys show it is only at 1/4 for the entire population, which will be flattered by the vaccination of the elderly.
The anti-body survey out today was from samples covering 14th Jan to 11th Feb - it's 5 weeks out of date already, and given the number declined through the summer, it clearly understates the T-cell immunity of the unvaccinated population.
If you take the number of people vaccinated 2 weeks or more ago you get 27% of the adult population. The antibody rate in the sub-69 English population in the survey is already over 20%, and the T-cells quirk at least offsets any population overlap in the 2 groups. If we're not at 50% yet we definitely will be inside a fortnight.
Two weeks, four to be on the safe side. Add on another month and a bit for the protection for the vaccine to build up and you are at a timescale pretty close to that of the government.
You completely missed that I said 'historically'. Apple has been in business since 1977, and the processors under discussion were designed in the late 80s and early 90s. Apple being able to do semi design to any kind of standard is a relatively recent occurance.
I didn't miss that, but fair enough if you meant historically literally. Even then I'm not entirely sure you are right. Apple was part of AIM defining the PowerPC architecture, they were early investors in ARM, and they had CPU plans going back to the 80s with Scorpius. I'm sure I've read that some of the other 68k successor plans went far beyond simply buying chips. Apple wasn't as successful in the past as they are now, but they sure as hell have backed or worked on a lot of interesting hardware over the years, and now they can reasonably claim to be the industry leaders.
This is "a big deal", because CureVac is another mRNA based vaccine, but one with much easier storage requirements than Pfizer or Moderna. This is the business that Trump tried to move to the US.
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Thank you, @Black_Rook - been on and booked both vaccinations.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Also... when is the UK going to approve Novavax? We have a big order for it. It's completed Phase 3 with excellent efficacy. And it's not going to be approved in the US until May, so we might have the opportunity to get a couple of months of supply before anyone else.
Given total vaccinated + previously had it is over 50%, severely restricting the worst possible R, the current level of infected people, and the speed with which first doses are being rolled out, it's getting extremely hard to model a break scenario anymore for the NHS without picking inputs which are clearly false. By Easter it will be completely impossible .
(in response to RobD given it won't let me reply directly)
Even with half immune (which I think is a huge overestimate when you look at the ONS antibody surveys) if you let it spread freely without restriction it would overwhelm the NHS.
No, with half immune you're looking at a worst case doubling rate considerably longer than seen in the first 2 waves, starting from a pretty low base, with the most likely to be hospitalised off the table and the virus fighting a losing battle against continued vaccine roll out. You can just about create a scenario where hospital occupancy could regain the Jan peak if you were to let everyone go crazy right now. By Easter there will simply be no chance.
I'm not sure where you are getting this half of all under 65s immune stat from? Infection surveys show it is only at 1/4 for the entire population, which will be flattered by the vaccination of the elderly.
ONS antibody surveys will not necessarily pick up all the immune - they don’t pick up t-cell responses in those whose antibodies have faded. Prof Ferguson reckons a third of the population have had it, let’s say 30%, slightly less than Prof Ferguson's one third and based on an IFR of 0.75%, 18 million should have caught it. If you say that the percentage of people who have been vaccinated AND also had Covid previously is that national figure (30%) then that's an overlap of roughly 6 million people, so say 12 million infected but unvaccinated.
Add 20 million vaccinated to that 12 million gives us 32 million people with a degree of immunity in 3 weeks. That’s 47% of the population by the third week of March. Probably more like 40% at the moment and maybe 50% by Easter.
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Thank you, @Black_Rook - been on and booked both vaccinations.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Did you try a few days ago when I had suggested, or is this only a very recent change in policy?
Also... when is the UK going to approve Novavax? We have a big order for it. It's completed Phase 3 with excellent efficacy. And it's not going to be approved in the US until May, so we might have the opportunity to get a couple of months of supply before anyone else.
I see from an old story it was expected that it would get UK approval first, so hopefully that first dibs (technical term) will still be the case.
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Thank you, @Black_Rook - been on and booked both vaccinations.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Did you try a few days ago when I had suggested, or is this only a very recent change in policy?
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Thank you, @Black_Rook - been on and booked both vaccinations.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Did you try a few days ago when I had suggested, or is this only a very recent change in policy?
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Thank you, @Black_Rook - been on and booked both vaccinations.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Did you try a few days ago when I had suggested, or is this only a very recent change in policy?
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Thank you, @Black_Rook - been on and booked both vaccinations.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Did you try a few days ago when I had suggested, or is this only a very recent change in policy?
I looked at the weekend and the NHS website was still saying 64 years or older so it's changed this week presumably though I wasn't aware of it and hadn't looked.
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Thank you, @Black_Rook - been on and booked both vaccinations.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Hurrah!
The first of my work colleagues to get his slots booked online as well yesterday (he actually got his letter in the post,) and has an appointment at our nearest mass vax centre next week I believe.
Cohort 7 well underway, and the 7s, 8s and 9s are all relatively modest-sized groups. Hopefully they'll run a bit ahead of schedule and us 10s will get to start boarding the great vaccine travelator from about Easter.
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Thank you, @Black_Rook - been on and booked both vaccinations.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Did you try a few days ago when I had suggested, or is this only a very recent change in policy?
I looked at the weekend and the NHS website was still saying 64 years or older so it's changed this week presumably though I wasn't aware of it and hadn't looked.
Glad you got it sorted in the end though. No doubt you'll get the letter tomorrow now.
Wales as California is baffling. They would appear to have zero in common.
I'd say South Wales was West Virginia, North & West Wales was Maine & Vermont.
N. Ireland as Alaska is good.
Presumably Scotland is Canada.
Really?
History of resource extraction. Some skiing, but not the best on the island. Long, attractive coast. Funny accents. Politics dominated by the left. Terrible public transport.
I was uselessly hoping for some retraction, apology, or even the slightest show of regret for their irresponsible and ignorant AZ coverage a month or so back. Or maybe an unapologetic promotion of the AZ vaccine's recently reported figures. Perhaps a suggestion that the UK delayed second dose might be the way to go.
But no. No mention of AZ or the "UK method" that I can see.
Did you check the reporter's twitter feed? Maybe the mea culpa was on there (although I doubt it).
I check it now and then and he (washingtonski) doesn't appear to have made any concession at all...
Just checked again and he has still not referred to his earlier story, nor any of the data refuting it.
I doubt he thinks he did anything wrong. Like a good lap dog reporter he placed the story he was briefed and it did the job. It was always nonsense and even more so so now with real world data. But that wasn’t the point.
If that was so casually why then it was criminally irresposible. At mass manslaughter level.
Yes, but the real culprit was almost certainly the source who planted the story.
I don't think you can let the journalists off at all. If you are going to cite "anonymous sources" there has to be some justification for them being anonymous. In this case there is none.
You completely missed that I said 'historically'. Apple has been in business since 1977, and the processors under discussion were designed in the late 80s and early 90s. Apple being able to do semi design to any kind of standard is a relatively recent occurance.
I didn't miss that, but fair enough if you meant historically literally. Even then I'm not entirely sure you are right. Apple was part of AIM defining the PowerPC architecture, they were early investors in ARM, and they had CPU plans going back to the 80s with Scorpius. I'm sure I've read that some of the other 68k successor plans went far beyond simply buying chips. Apple wasn't as successful in the past as they are now, but they sure as hell have backed or worked on a lot of interesting hardware over the years, and now they can reasonably claim to be the industry leaders.
I think you're bigging them up a bit too much. I don't recall Apple contributing anything at all to any PowerPC processor, and not even much to the PPC ISA specification either. And ARM was developed and in use for some six years before Apple started using it.
I do agree they were good at identifying interesting semi designs and investing in them. Possibly a legacy of the mid/lates 80s when Commodore's ability to pump out innovative chip designs almost drove Apple into bankrupty.
I was uselessly hoping for some retraction, apology, or even the slightest show of regret for their irresponsible and ignorant AZ coverage a month or so back. Or maybe an unapologetic promotion of the AZ vaccine's recently reported figures. Perhaps a suggestion that the UK delayed second dose might be the way to go.
But no. No mention of AZ or the "UK method" that I can see.
Did you check the reporter's twitter feed? Maybe the mea culpa was on there (although I doubt it).
I check it now and then and he (washingtonski) doesn't appear to have made any concession at all...
Just checked again and he has still not referred to his earlier story, nor any of the data refuting it.
I doubt he thinks he did anything wrong. Like a good lap dog reporter he placed the story he was briefed and it did the job. It was always nonsense and even more so so now with real world data. But that wasn’t the point.
If that was so casually why then it was criminally irresposible. At mass manslaughter level.
Yes, but the real culprit was almost certainly the source who planted the story.
I don't think you can let the journalists off at all. If you are going to cite "anonymous sources" there has to be some justification for them being anonymous. In this case there is none.
Anonymous because they knew they were spouting bollocks, perhaps?
The Mail reckons Sunak will extend furlough to September....
Jeez....
But that doesn’t mean it will be used.
Possibly not, but we shall see.
My interpretation of the phased plan is that the target for re-opening the nightclubs on 21 June means that masks and social distancing must necessarily be going in the dustbin, under most or all circumstances, at the same time (because that paraphernalia can't possibly work in a nightclub, and there's no reason to keep inflicting it upon lower risk hospitality venues if it's not being applied to clubbing.)
However, if I'm mistaken and, say, pubs and restaurants are going to be forced to keep partitions between all the tables or otherwise enforce the one-metre-plus rule, then furlough and other measures could still be needed for a while yet. Many businesses won't be viable unless all the restrictions go.
Given total vaccinated + previously had it is over 50%, severely restricting the worst possible R, the current level of infected people, and the speed with which first doses are being rolled out, it's getting extremely hard to model a break scenario anymore for the NHS without picking inputs which are clearly false. By Easter it will be completely impossible .
(in response to RobD given it won't let me reply directly)
Even with half immune (which I think is a huge overestimate when you look at the ONS antibody surveys) if you let it spread freely without restriction it would overwhelm the NHS.
No, with half immune you're looking at a worst case doubling rate considerably longer than seen in the first 2 waves, starting from a pretty low base, with the most likely to be hospitalised off the table and the virus fighting a losing battle against continued vaccine roll out. You can just about create a scenario where hospital occupancy could regain the Jan peak if you were to let everyone go crazy right now. By Easter there will simply be no chance.
I don't think that is correct. You seem to assume that people have a random chance of contact, while the reality is that vaccine uptake varies significantly by community. So the vaccine sceptics are more likely to meet and infect vaccine sceptics, while perhaps just a few miles away there is zero covid (well, single shot vaccine give 60% protection, but for the sake of simplicity)
We see this in Israel, where despite vaccination rates substantially better than our own, but with continued cases in the Arab and Haredi groups who have much lower rates.
Bearing in mind that Israel has a population about a nineth of ours, that is still quite a pandemic.
I was uselessly hoping for some retraction, apology, or even the slightest show of regret for their irresponsible and ignorant AZ coverage a month or so back. Or maybe an unapologetic promotion of the AZ vaccine's recently reported figures. Perhaps a suggestion that the UK delayed second dose might be the way to go.
But no. No mention of AZ or the "UK method" that I can see.
Did you check the reporter's twitter feed? Maybe the mea culpa was on there (although I doubt it).
I check it now and then and he (washingtonski) doesn't appear to have made any concession at all...
Just checked again and he has still not referred to his earlier story, nor any of the data refuting it.
I doubt he thinks he did anything wrong. Like a good lap dog reporter he placed the story he was briefed and it did the job. It was always nonsense and even more so so now with real world data. But that wasn’t the point.
If that was so casually why then it was criminally irresposible. At mass manslaughter level.
Yes, but the real culprit was almost certainly the source who planted the story.
I don't think you can let the journalists off at all. If you are going to cite "anonymous sources" there has to be some justification for them being anonymous. In this case there is none.
Sorry, but it’s the whole politics-journalism complex, the German version of the Westminster bubble. Most stories in the press originate this way. The reporter was just the conduit of German health ministry policy. Tbh it’s just like the leaks around the budget tomorrow.
I thought it was explained by demographics? You can't force people to have it.
It hasn't been "explained" by anyone or anything.
IF there is poor take up in Newham and I'm not commenting on that one way or the other, I'd expect the invitations to be moving more quickly down the population. Perhaps I should be asking if there has been poor take up in Oxfordshire and Surrey (except I know from the figures there hasn't)?
I don't know why Newham is lagging behind - 14% of the adult population vaccinated by last Thursday compared with 40% in Devon and while I cheerfully accept I live in a "younger" part of the world, the fact only 71% of over 65s had been vaccinated in Newham compared with over 90% in Surrey Heartlands also tells a story.
The vaccine rollout has gone spectacularly well in some areas, indeed many areas but in other areas it has not and is not going so well. I'm only pointing out the anomalies and trying to find some credible explanation.
The credible explanation is that local people in Newham are rejecting the vaccine. Hardly surprising given the demographics of the place.
Wales as California is baffling. They would appear to have zero in common.
I'd say South Wales was West Virginia, North & West Wales was Maine & Vermont.
N. Ireland as Alaska is good.
Presumably Scotland is Canada.
Really?
History of resource extraction. Some skiing, but not the best on the island. Long, attractive coast. Funny accents. Politics dominated by the left. Terrible public transport.
They seem pretty similar to me.
It rains quite a bit in the Bay Area doesn't it?
Not sure why Leics is Idaho, unless it's because of all the Indians...🤔
The Mail reckons Sunak will extend furlough to September....
Jeez....
But that doesn’t mean it will be used.
Possibly not, but we shall see.
My interpretation of the phased plan is that the target for re-opening the nightclubs on 21 June means that masks and social distancing must necessarily be going in the dustbin, under most or all circumstances, at the same time (because that paraphernalia can't possibly work in a nightclub, and there's no reason to keep inflicting it upon lower risk hospitality venues if it's not being applied to clubbing.)
However, if I'm mistaken and, say, pubs and restaurants are going to be forced to keep partitions between all the tables or otherwise enforce the one-metre-plus rule, then furlough and other measures could still be needed for a while yet. Many businesses won't be viable unless all the restrictions go.
I think your first assumption is right. Certainly hope so...
The Mail reckons Sunak will extend furlough to September....
Jeez....
But that doesn’t mean it will be used.
Possibly not, but we shall see.
My interpretation of the phased plan is that the target for re-opening the nightclubs on 21 June means that masks and social distancing must necessarily be going in the dustbin, under most or all circumstances, at the same time (because that paraphernalia can't possibly work in a nightclub, and there's no reason to keep inflicting it upon lower risk hospitality venues if it's not being applied to clubbing.)
However, if I'm mistaken and, say, pubs and restaurants are going to be forced to keep partitions between all the tables or otherwise enforce the one-metre-plus rule, then furlough and other measures could still be needed for a while yet. Many businesses won't be viable unless all the restrictions go.
Lots of businesses will take time to get back on their feet.
Wales as California is baffling. They would appear to have zero in common.
I'd say South Wales was West Virginia, North & West Wales was Maine & Vermont.
N. Ireland as Alaska is good.
Presumably Scotland is Canada.
Really?
History of resource extraction. Some skiing, but not the best on the island. Long, attractive coast. Funny accents. Politics dominated by the left. Terrible public transport.
They seem pretty similar to me.
The Pontypool Ski Resort does have a different ambience than the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
Also... when is the UK going to approve Novavax? We have a big order for it. It's completed Phase 3 with excellent efficacy. And it's not going to be approved in the US until May, so we might have the opportunity to get a couple of months of supply before anyone else.
They're in a rolling review process like Pfizer so it could be another couple of weeks.
Could have just left that part out and focused on that they haven't been reasonable in hearing what she has to say first. No it wouldn't stop the calls, but it focuses on appareny unreasonableness of the call without looking like a dodge. And yes that would apply to anyone using Covid to deflect awkward political attacks.
I was uselessly hoping for some retraction, apology, or even the slightest show of regret for their irresponsible and ignorant AZ coverage a month or so back. Or maybe an unapologetic promotion of the AZ vaccine's recently reported figures. Perhaps a suggestion that the UK delayed second dose might be the way to go.
But no. No mention of AZ or the "UK method" that I can see.
Did you check the reporter's twitter feed? Maybe the mea culpa was on there (although I doubt it).
I check it now and then and he (washingtonski) doesn't appear to have made any concession at all...
Just checked again and he has still not referred to his earlier story, nor any of the data refuting it.
I doubt he thinks he did anything wrong. Like a good lap dog reporter he placed the story he was briefed and it did the job. It was always nonsense and even more so so now with real world data. But that wasn’t the point.
His Fake News story has undoubtedly consigned thousands of Europeans to an early and unnecessary grave. German media are shameless and appalling
I am no friend of Sturgeon but this story will be completely overwhelmed by the Budget tomorrow.
That may have been the hope on timing. But this has got legs. (And the Scottish Parliament's budget isn't until next week.)
Last year, Kate Forbes had to step in and present the Scottish budget at short notice following Derek Mackay’s misdemeanours. This year could someone else have to step in with Kate Forbes being appointed acting FM if Sturgeon and Swinney have to resign?
Wales as California is baffling. They would appear to have zero in common.
I'd say South Wales was West Virginia, North & West Wales was Maine & Vermont.
N. Ireland as Alaska is good.
Presumably Scotland is Canada.
Really?
History of resource extraction. Some skiing, but not the best on the island. Long, attractive coast. Funny accents. Politics dominated by the left. Terrible public transport.
They seem pretty similar to me.
The Pontypool Ski Resort does have a different ambience than the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
It is an ever so slightly rougher crowd in Ponty.
Not full of middle class remainers spreading Covid?
The Mail reckons Sunak will extend furlough to September....
Jeez....
But that doesn’t mean it will be used.
Possibly not, but we shall see.
My interpretation of the phased plan is that the target for re-opening the nightclubs on 21 June means that masks and social distancing must necessarily be going in the dustbin, under most or all circumstances, at the same time (because that paraphernalia can't possibly work in a nightclub, and there's no reason to keep inflicting it upon lower risk hospitality venues if it's not being applied to clubbing.)
However, if I'm mistaken and, say, pubs and restaurants are going to be forced to keep partitions between all the tables or otherwise enforce the one-metre-plus rule, then furlough and other measures could still be needed for a while yet. Many businesses won't be viable unless all the restrictions go.
Lots of businesses will take time to get back on their feet.
I suspect it will be phased downward, as it was last autumn.
The Mail reckons Sunak will extend furlough to September....
Jeez....
But that doesn’t mean it will be used.
Possibly not, but we shall see.
My interpretation of the phased plan is that the target for re-opening the nightclubs on 21 June means that masks and social distancing must necessarily be going in the dustbin, under most or all circumstances, at the same time (because that paraphernalia can't possibly work in a nightclub, and there's no reason to keep inflicting it upon lower risk hospitality venues if it's not being applied to clubbing.)
However, if I'm mistaken and, say, pubs and restaurants are going to be forced to keep partitions between all the tables or otherwise enforce the one-metre-plus rule, then furlough and other measures could still be needed for a while yet. Many businesses won't be viable unless all the restrictions go.
Lots of businesses will take time to get back on their feet.
If that really is true, I mean really true, Sunak's chances of closing the deficit before long rates and inflationary pressure blow his strategy to bits are essentially zero.
The cleverer administrations can see the writing on the wall. Some are quietly getting things going again now. Sunak can see this too.
Johnson is utterly allergic to bad headlines of any kind. SAGE must be assuaged. The vast damage done to the jobs market and the economy by this interminable lockdown must be hidden. Nobody must be allowed to be p8ssed off.
It just makes the reckoning, when it comes, all the larger. Johnson maybe riding high now, but Jeez.
I was uselessly hoping for some retraction, apology, or even the slightest show of regret for their irresponsible and ignorant AZ coverage a month or so back. Or maybe an unapologetic promotion of the AZ vaccine's recently reported figures. Perhaps a suggestion that the UK delayed second dose might be the way to go.
But no. No mention of AZ or the "UK method" that I can see.
Did you check the reporter's twitter feed? Maybe the mea culpa was on there (although I doubt it).
I check it now and then and he (washingtonski) doesn't appear to have made any concession at all...
Just checked again and he has still not referred to his earlier story, nor any of the data refuting it.
I doubt he thinks he did anything wrong. Like a good lap dog reporter he placed the story he was briefed and it did the job. It was always nonsense and even more so so now with real world data. But that wasn’t the point.
His Fake News story has undoubtedly consigned thousands of Europeans to an early and unnecessary grave. German media are shameless and appalling
I don’t disagree, but I don’t think our press is any better.
I am no friend of Sturgeon but this story will be completely overwhelmed by the Budget tomorrow.
That may have been the hope on timing. But this has got legs. (And the Scottish Parliament's budget isn't until next week.)
Last year, Kate Forbes had to step in and present the Scottish budget at short notice following Derek Mackay’s misdemeanours. This year could someone else have to step in with Kate Forbes being appointed acting FM if Sturgeon and Swinney have to resign?
I can't see it myself. People don't resign out of shame any more. Brazen it out is the contemporary fashion.
Also... when is the UK going to approve Novavax? We have a big order for it. It's completed Phase 3 with excellent efficacy. And it's not going to be approved in the US until May, so we might have the opportunity to get a couple of months of supply before anyone else.
They're in a rolling review process like Pfizer so it could be another couple of weeks.
With that approved, and the first Moderna shots arriving, the UK really should be in a position to ramp up numbers more, and get CV19 largely eradicated by the end of April.
Besides anything else, the French authorities have only raised the upper age limit, not abolished it.
If they don't consider AZ to be inferior then why is it not recommended for the over 75s? And if they do consider AZ to be inferior then can they blame some people for being picky, turning their noses up at it and waiting for something better to come along?
Also... when is the UK going to approve Novavax? We have a big order for it. It's completed Phase 3 with excellent efficacy. And it's not going to be approved in the US until May, so we might have the opportunity to get a couple of months of supply before anyone else.
They're in a rolling review process like Pfizer so it could be another couple of weeks.
With that approved, and the first Moderna shots arriving, the UK really should be in a position to ramp up numbers more, and get CV19 largely eradicated by the end of April.
Yes, I've been saying that for weeks. Novavax and Moderna are the way out of this for the UK, we should be getting an extra 2-3m in supply per week of both put together, that's in addition to the 5m of AZ and Pfizer we're expecting per week for most of March. Even if Pfizer starts to ramp down the other two will ramp up and we'll smash these targets.
The credible explanation is that local people in Newham are rejecting the vaccine. Hardly surprising given the demographics of the place.
It may be "credible" but that doesn't make it so. I've only quoted the figures from the Government's own website throughout all this. As there are no figures to show how many have contacted, we can't know how much of this is "refusal" or inability to make contact or whatever.
I'd offer the thought language may be an issue especially in Newham - as to whether cultural refusal is especially prevalent in this area, that's your conclusion, I'm not sure it's mine.
On this general subject, anyone aged 60+ should now (according to the relevant NHS website) be able to book a jab online, whether they've had a letter yet or not.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Thank you, @Black_Rook - been on and booked both vaccinations.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Did you try a few days ago when I had suggested, or is this only a very recent change in policy?
I looked at the weekend and the NHS website was still saying 64 years or older so it's changed this week presumably though I wasn't aware of it and hadn't looked.
Glad you got it sorted in the end though. No doubt you'll get the letter tomorrow now.
Mrs P got her invitation letter today - but we had already booked our vaccinations on Friday and had them yesterday morning.
On the subject of side effects: Mrs P. felt like she was coming down with the flu for the past 24 hours but now reports she is feeling much better. I have had a mild headache all day but also feel better this evening. We both had AZ/Oxford.
Side effects seem to be stronger than the annual flu jab which only gives us a slightly sore arm.
I am no friend of Sturgeon but this story will be completely overwhelmed by the Budget tomorrow.
That may have been the hope on timing. But this has got legs. (And the Scottish Parliament's budget isn't until next week.)
Last year, Kate Forbes had to step in and present the Scottish budget at short notice following Derek Mackay’s misdemeanours. This year could someone else have to step in with Kate Forbes being appointed acting FM if Sturgeon and Swinney have to resign?
I can't see it myself. People don't resign out of shame any more. Brazen it out is the contemporary fashion.
Comments
Are we dealing with vaccine going to waste in Newham because of refusal - if so, why aren't other people being contacted? - or are we dealing with insufficient supplies getting to Newham because it has a younger population and the priority has been to vaccinate the elderly?
As for vaccine waste, is there any? If a site uses less than requested one week, it won't get as much the second week since it can use what is left over.
https://twitter.com/MilkmanMeme/status/1365719234567950336
Have you contacted your GP?
Except that ignores the suppression of the spread that we will see. The virus should be very much reduced in prevalence in a couple of months. It’s already happening. That is the true herd immunity.
(The ‘Body is 1 character too short’ thing is as bizarre as it is infuriating)
Your second point is more interesting - if we are saying (let's use some crude numbers), an area gets 10,000 doses for the week and only gives out 7,500 for whatever reason, does that mean it only gets 7,500 next week?
Fair enough but if there were widespread refusals, I'd expect those further down the population to be contacted to see if they were available at short notice (I think this has happened elsewhere) to use the remaining 2,500 doses as quickly as possible.
And I thought I was a contrarian...
On the driving test in Lincs, they have to drive to Yorkshire to do the hill start.
As for moving down the list? Then you have the opposite problem of under 50s being vaccinated before the elderly are finished elsewhere. I get the impression the idea is to move down the list roughly in tandem.
If there's anyone in that category who can't get the website to give them their appointment then one would assume that they should be straight onto their GP in the morning to get the problem sorted.
Newham has the lowest influenza vaccine uptake for schoolchildren in London, and what seems like the entire country. I think my assumption is a safe one.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/613457/Seasonal_influenza_vaccine_uptake_in_children_of_primary_school_age_2016_to_2017.pdf
If you take the number of people vaccinated 2 weeks or more ago you get 27% of the adult population. The antibody rate in the sub-69 English population in the survey is already over 20%, and the T-cells quirk at least offsets any population overlap in the 2 groups. If we're not at 50% yet we definitely will be inside a fortnight.
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04652102?term=curevac&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=1
This is "a big deal", because CureVac is another mRNA based vaccine, but one with much easier storage requirements than Pfizer or Moderna. This is the business that Trump tried to move to the US.
First one Friday week at Excel and have booked the second for late May.
All very easy - well, that will help with Newham's stats.
Add 20 million vaccinated to that 12 million gives us 32 million people with a degree of immunity in 3 weeks. That’s 47% of the population by the third week of March. Probably more like 40% at the moment and maybe 50% by Easter.
Jeez....
I'd say South Wales was West Virginia, North & West Wales were Maine & Vermont.
N. Ireland as Alaska is good.
Presumably Scotland is Canada.
The first of my work colleagues to get his slots booked online as well yesterday (he actually got his letter in the post,) and has an appointment at our nearest mass vax centre next week I believe.
Cohort 7 well underway, and the 7s, 8s and 9s are all relatively modest-sized groups. Hopefully they'll run a bit ahead of schedule and us 10s will get to start boarding the great vaccine travelator from about Easter.
There was a number in the press about the size of fraud related to this scheme.
Even I didn't believe it.
I just don't see how the UK isn't heading for a very, very serious financial crisis. Very serious indeed.
History of resource extraction.
Some skiing, but not the best on the island.
Long, attractive coast.
Funny accents.
Politics dominated by the left.
Terrible public transport.
They seem pretty similar to me.
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1366846908480815106
I do agree they were good at identifying interesting semi designs and investing in them. Possibly a legacy of the mid/lates 80s when Commodore's ability to pump out innovative chip designs almost drove Apple into bankrupty.
Now have to get the younger Mrs Stodge organised.
My interpretation of the phased plan is that the target for re-opening the nightclubs on 21 June means that masks and social distancing must necessarily be going in the dustbin, under most or all circumstances, at the same time (because that paraphernalia can't possibly work in a nightclub, and there's no reason to keep inflicting it upon lower risk hospitality venues if it's not being applied to clubbing.)
However, if I'm mistaken and, say, pubs and restaurants are going to be forced to keep partitions between all the tables or otherwise enforce the one-metre-plus rule, then furlough and other measures could still be needed for a while yet. Many businesses won't be viable unless all the restrictions go.
We see this in Israel, where despite vaccination rates substantially better than our own, but with continued cases in the Arab and Haredi groups who have much lower rates.
Bearing in mind that Israel has a population about a nineth of ours, that is still quite a pandemic.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1366846951476645894?s=19
Not sure why Leics is Idaho, unless it's because of all the Indians...🤔
It is an ever so slightly rougher crowd in Ponty.
Normally it would be Swinney, but if she goes I think he goes too...
The cleverer administrations can see the writing on the wall. Some are quietly getting things going again now. Sunak can see this too.
Johnson is utterly allergic to bad headlines of any kind. SAGE must be assuaged. The vast damage done to the jobs market and the economy by this interminable lockdown must be hidden. Nobody must be allowed to be p8ssed off.
It just makes the reckoning, when it comes, all the larger. Johnson maybe riding high now, but Jeez.
7/4Now 6/4 she won’t be FM on 1/1/2022 with LadbrokesIf they don't consider AZ to be inferior then why is it not recommended for the over 75s? And if they do consider AZ to be inferior then can they blame some people for being picky, turning their noses up at it and waiting for something better to come along?
I'd offer the thought language may be an issue especially in Newham - as to whether cultural refusal is especially prevalent in this area, that's your conclusion, I'm not sure it's mine.
On the subject of side effects: Mrs P. felt like she was coming down with the flu for the past 24 hours but now reports she is feeling much better. I have had a mild headache all day but also feel better this evening. We both had AZ/Oxford.
Side effects seem to be stronger than the annual flu jab which only gives us a slightly sore arm.
But, Sturgeon may yet pull off a blinder tomorrow, and the London press will be focused on Rishi’s Austerity 2.0.
It all might be a bit clearer in 24 hours.