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Trump now 22% favourite to be the WH2024 Republican nominee – politicalbetting.com

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Quincel said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

    Can you explain Malc what this says in plain Scots (English)
    My word, that is a remarkable note!

    In a sentence: "We are terribly sorry we lied to the court, we did it because out client lied to us."

    The first thing to know is that 'professional embarrassment' is a euphemism lawyers do not want to use. The most common reason is where your client in a criminal trial tells you they are guilty. In this case they say that "assurances which have been given on instructions, turning out to be false". The lawyers are apologising, profusely, to the Court for basically lying to the Court and other side - and saying it happened 'on instructions' which means their client told them to say it. Presumably they didn't know their client was wrong/lying at the time, since it would be potentially career-ending to pass on a lie if they did.

    What is this lie? Disclosure. In other words, Alex Salmond's lawyers brought this case against the government and as part of the litigation the government has a duty to search for relevant documents to his claims and hand them over to him (with some restrictions). They will have handed over a bunch of documents and signed a statement that nothing else relevant was in their records. However, at the very last minute, "further documents, highly relevant yet undisclosed" were found. In short: The government held back important documents which they had a legal duty to hand over.

    Now, sometimes mistakes happen and documents get missed. Disclosure is an exercise carried out by human beings and people are fallible. However, the lawyers specifically note that the documents should have been found by the earlier searches. They "simply cannot understand" why they weren't. In a lawyer's way they are saying they think this was conspiracy rather than cock-up.
    Thanks for the explanation, that's really explosive. Basically the government lawyers accusing the government of hiding damaging key evidence. Mad.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    Quincel said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

    Can you explain Malc what this says in plain Scots (English)
    My word, that is a remarkable note!

    In a sentence: "We are terribly sorry we lied to the court, we did it because out client lied to us."

    The first thing to know is that 'professional embarrassment' is a euphemism lawyers do not want to use. The most common reason is where your client in a criminal trial tells you they are guilty. In this case they say that "assurances which have been given on instructions, turning out to be false". The lawyers are apologising, profusely, to the Court for basically lying to the Court and other side - and saying it happened 'on instructions' which means their client told them to say it. Presumably they didn't know their client was wrong/lying at the time, since it would be potentially career-ending to pass on a lie if they did.

    What is this lie? Disclosure. In other words, Alex Salmond's lawyers brought this case against the government and as part of the litigation the government has a duty to search for relevant documents to his claims and hand them over to him (with some restrictions). They will have handed over a bunch of documents and signed a statement that nothing else relevant was in their records. However, at the very last minute, "further documents, highly relevant yet undisclosed" were found. In short: The government held back important documents which they had a legal duty to hand over.

    Now, sometimes mistakes happen and documents get missed. Disclosure is an exercise carried out by human beings and people are fallible. However, the lawyers specifically note that the documents should have been found by the earlier searches. They "simply cannot understand" why they weren't. In a lawyer's way they are saying they think this was conspiracy rather than cock-up.
    It was a conspiracy. Salmond is entirely vindicated. How does Sturgeon cling on?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,666
    edited March 2021

    Our surgery has just phoned our 46 year old son to attend on Friday for his covid vaccination

    Seems getting younger by the day

    Good news. In some parts of the country the median age is about 33 (Nottingham) and others about 55 (Christchurch) so I suppose it's not surprising that we're getting these variations.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,214
    RobD said:

    Is it true that Sturgeon's daily briefings are going to continue up until polling day? In what world is that fair?

    If tomorrow's hearing goes haywire for her, she might be making those daily briefings as former First Minister.
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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You think Germans are happy that they are exporting 30% less to the UK? That's the EU's big win out of Brexit? lol.....
    As a small point of order, the Germans have not yet released January trade numbers (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Foreign-Trade/_node.html), so I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers were "estimates".
    It's also compared to the month at the end of the transition period; weren't we heavily stockpiling then?
    Basically, I wouldn't pay any attention to these numbers until Autumn, because Coronavirus, stockpiling, and general getting used to new processes.
    Should I just ignore the numbers, or also ignore every tweet that ScottP posts about the numbers?

    Surely his tide of FBPE propoganda needs some counter?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:

    Is it true that Sturgeon's daily briefings are going to continue up until polling day? In what world is that fair?

    If tomorrow's hearing goes haywire for her, she might be making those daily briefings as former First Minister.
    The parliament is being cowed by the crown office, I don't expect them to do anything at all.
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    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

    Can you explain Malc what this says in plain Scots (English)
    It means that the government legal team , top QC in country and his assistant had made statements to Salmond's legal team and the judge that they had given all the evidence. Weeks later he finds that they have lied , and more than once and that the last whopper is proof that the Investigating officer had lots of meetings and coaching with the complainant before she officially submitted the complaint. Believe somewhere they had actually shared the proposed process as well with her. At this they threatened to walk as they were now in danger of getting it in the neck.
    As Salmond said they had been stringing out the judicial review against external lawyers advice and lying to their QC's hoping that the court case would hurry up and collapse the judicial review before they were found out. Hence judge being less than happy and awarding Salmond more than £600K.
    They are still trying to hide the external advice , hence threat of No Confidence vote if they don't put it out and not just what Swinney thinks is key.
    Thanks Malc and it sounds very murky
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    I think the moment Sturgeon realised this was going to go badly was when she basically said there's no smoke without fire. To my mind that's a resignation worthy comment in itself, someone in that position shouldn't second guess the courts, especially not live on TV. She's definitely panicking. Attempts to laugh this off will look ridiculous.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    edited March 2021
    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
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    Is there any chance of Salmond turning up at Sturgeon's daily pressers as a journalist?

    That would be something to see!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    MaxPB said:

    I think the moment Sturgeon realised this was going to go badly was when she basically said there's no smoke without fire. To my mind that's a resignation worthy comment in itself, someone in that position shouldn't second guess the courts, especially not live on TV. She's definitely panicking. Attempts to laugh this off will look ridiculous.

    Distinctly unfortunate choice of phrase, given that it’s her actions that are giving off lots of smoke right now.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    edited March 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Our surgery has just phoned our 46 year old son to attend on Friday for his covid vaccination

    Seems getting younger by the day

    Good news. In some parts of the country the median age is about 33 (Nottingham) and others about 55 (Christchurch) so I suppose it's not surprising that we're getting these variations.
    And this is in North Wales
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267

    Is there any chance of Salmond turning up at Sturgeon's daily pressers as a journalist?

    That would be something to see!

    ‘It’s not just that you’re a crook, First Minister...’
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,702
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    2/5 she's still FM on NYE, 7/4 she goes this year.

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-scottish-parliamentary-election/226054222/all-markets
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

    Can you explain Malc what this says in plain Scots (English)
    I precis, but that's the Scottish Govt's own lawyers basically saying:

    "You complete bunch of ****s. You've had us go into court lying our head off. And now, everyone can see how we lied our heads off. In black and white. Well, now you're f*cked. Our reputations are f*cked. Our case is f*cked.

    You are so f*cked, you have no idea how f*cked you are, you complete ar*eholes, you are clusterf*cked. Rank tw*ttish amateurs.

    Jesus f*cking H Christ."
    Martin McSixmith QC, then.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,124
    Leon said:

    Kinda weird that the PB Nats aren't focused on the unfolding and astonishing revelation is Salmondgate. Indeed Theuniondivvie seems unusually focussed on.... the London mayoral elections

    If Sturgeon can survive this slam-dunk evidence of conspiracy, then she can survive anything, and the Scots may as well vote once, for her, as President for Life (and perhaps beyond) and have done with democracy and the rule of law

    I'm not sure a crack about the uselessness of S.Bailey quite counts as focusing on the London mayoral elections.

    Flattered as I am that you're interested in my opinion, I wouldn't like to interrupt your flow of insightful expertise on the subject.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    The best result for unionists is that she limps on until May mortally wounded and it leads to a unionist majority at Holyrood.
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    Quincel said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    2/5 she's still FM on NYE, 7/4 she goes this year.

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-scottish-parliamentary-election/226054222/all-markets
    7/4 out? That looks cracking value at the moment.. Wish I'd bet on it a month back!
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    edited March 2021
    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267

    Leon said:

    Kinda weird that the PB Nats aren't focused on the unfolding and astonishing revelation is Salmondgate. Indeed Theuniondivvie seems unusually focussed on.... the London mayoral elections

    If Sturgeon can survive this slam-dunk evidence of conspiracy, then she can survive anything, and the Scots may as well vote once, for her, as President for Life (and perhaps beyond) and have done with democracy and the rule of law

    I'm not sure a crack about the uselessness of S.Bailey quite counts as focusing on the London mayoral elections.

    Flattered as I am that you're interested in my opinion, I wouldn't like to interrupt your flow of insightful expertise on the subject.
    But you're a Scotch politics expert. It would be interesting to hear if you believe she should, now, resign: especially given the damage she is clearly doing to the indy cause
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Quincel said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    2/5 she's still FM on NYE, 7/4 she goes this year.

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-scottish-parliamentary-election/226054222/all-markets
    Thanks, that 7/4 wont last long.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Kinda weird that the PB Nats aren't focused on the unfolding and astonishing revelation is Salmondgate. Indeed Theuniondivvie seems unusually focussed on.... the London mayoral elections

    If Sturgeon can survive this slam-dunk evidence of conspiracy, then she can survive anything, and the Scots may as well vote once, for her, as President for Life (and perhaps beyond) and have done with democracy and the rule of law

    I'm not sure a crack about the uselessness of S.Bailey quite counts as focusing on the London mayoral elections.

    Flattered as I am that you're interested in my opinion, I wouldn't like to interrupt your flow of insightful expertise on the subject.
    But you're a Scotch politics expert. It would be interesting to hear if you believe she should, now, resign: especially given the damage she is clearly doing to the indy cause
    So far, we haven’t seen *clear* evidence of that.

    Which is why, though any normal politician in any normal time would have to go, she will very probably cling on a la Priti Patel.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797
    Quincel said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

    Can you explain Malc what this says in plain Scots (English)
    Now, sometimes mistakes happen and documents get missed. Disclosure is an exercise carried out by human beings and people are fallible. However, the lawyers specifically note that the documents should have been found by the earlier searches. They "simply cannot understand" why they weren't. In a lawyer's way they are saying they think this was conspiracy rather than cock-up.
    Your last paragraph does seem to be key here. Even such a conspiracy need not necessarily indicate as broad a conspiracy as alleged, but a bit as you quote seems hard to understand as anything other than to undermine a defence of 'it was a cock up'.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797
    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
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    Is there any chance that, despite the fact he seems to have been exposed a dirty (if not criminal) old lech and that the hypocrisy at the heart of the SNP is now plain to see, Salmond might be able to use this huge renewed publicity to get back to power and lead the secessionists to victory? (aka Malcolm's Dream)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    MattW said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

    Can you explain Malc what this says in plain Scots (English)
    I precis, but that's the Scottish Govt's own lawyers basically saying:

    "You complete bunch of ****s. You've had us go into court lying our head off. And now, everyone can see how we lied our heads off. In black and white. Well, now you're f*cked. Our reputations are f*cked. Our case is f*cked.

    You are so f*cked, you have no idea how f*cked you are, you complete ar*eholes, you are clusterf*cked. Rank tw*ttish amateurs.

    Jesus f*cking H Christ."
    Martin McSixmith QC, then.

    With an extra side of f*cking lies.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    Scottish Opposition figure calls for Scottish Government figure to resign isn’t in itself that significant.

    Have the Greens said anything yet?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Is there any chance that, despite the fact he seems to have been exposed a dirty (if not criminal) old lech and that the hypocrisy at the heart of the SNP is now plain to see, Salmond might be able to use this huge renewed publicity to get back to power and lead the secessionists to victory? (aka Malcolm's Dream)

    Aren't his favourability ratings worse than Johnson?
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Seeing as this is a Trump thread... Lock her up!
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,462
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    We thought Maggie and Ted Heath had a feud. And Maggie offered Heath Ambassador of the USA. Sturgeon has offered Salmond 6 years in her Majesty's prison system and a lifetime as a sex offender.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MaxPB said:

    .

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.
    [snip]

    Blimey. I've never seen a legal opinion like that before. Absolutely extraordinary.
    Can you translate it from legalese, Richard? Thanks.
    I think the translation is something like: "What the f*** do you think you've been doing?"
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    ydoethur said:

    Scottish Opposition figure calls for Scottish Government figure to resign isn’t in itself that significant.

    Have the Greens said anything yet?
    Now conservatives call for Surgeon to resign

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1366821822935805961?s=19
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    edited March 2021
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Kinda weird that the PB Nats aren't focused on the unfolding and astonishing revelation is Salmondgate. Indeed Theuniondivvie seems unusually focussed on.... the London mayoral elections

    If Sturgeon can survive this slam-dunk evidence of conspiracy, then she can survive anything, and the Scots may as well vote once, for her, as President for Life (and perhaps beyond) and have done with democracy and the rule of law

    I'm not sure a crack about the uselessness of S.Bailey quite counts as focusing on the London mayoral elections.

    Flattered as I am that you're interested in my opinion, I wouldn't like to interrupt your flow of insightful expertise on the subject.
    But you're a Scotch politics expert. It would be interesting to hear if you believe she should, now, resign: especially given the damage she is clearly doing to the indy cause
    So far, we haven’t seen *clear* evidence of that.

    Which is why, though any normal politician in any normal time would have to go, she will very probably cling on a la Priti Patel.
    But there must come a point when even the most ardent Nats realise she will, in the future, be a liability, rather than an asset. She will never escape this now.

    The entire Holyrood elections will be about this, if she clings on. That's not good optics.

    The next polling will be crucial. If she maintains her popularity, then clearly Scots are happy with this grotesque cabal in charge. Fair enough if so.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
    I wonder whether the committee have the full Salmond Solicitor set of documents, yet?
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,202
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
    The chief prosecutor, the lord advocate, is a member of her cabinet.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    As in all things there will be issues but time will see most of them resolved
    I'll tell you something, if I may. I was really looking forward to some tours of places such as Pompeii and Athens.

    Guess what?

    Completely screwed. Because of the paperwork which your party signed up to.

    Businesses that took decades to create. Because your party couldn't be bothered to sort out boring details like that.

    Your party is unbelievably lucky to be able to blame everything on covid.
    You need a tour? The last time I was in Pompeii I overheard a guide telling his adult charges in all solemnity that they were standing in the Great Palaestra, which according to him derived from a Latin word meaning 'palace'.

    I still regret not staging an intervention...
    I can read the guidebooks fine, thanks - though my Attic is too rusty to read Pausanias in the original. It's partly the practical side and partly getting knowledgeable specialist lecturers rather than dragomans or the modern equivalents with stuff such as you cite.
    Pausanias leans more towards koine than strict Atticism, though he also has the charming habit of adapting his dialect a little to correspond with that of the region he's discussing.

    Even the specialist lecturers can have a little fun with their audience. The legend runs that Hugh Lloyd-Jones himself got the boot from a similar sinecure for telling a group of Americans that the Parthenon was a remarkable survival of ancient Chinese architecture.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074
    RobD said:
    Still a long way to go before the Lib Dems recover enough to overtake Labour.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267

    The revelations are devastating. She lied and lied.

    Salmond has destroyed her credibility completely.

    It's like two Zeppelins having a mid-air collision.

    An awful lot of hot air and gas is involved, that’s for sure.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:
    Still a long way to go before the Lib Dems recover enough to overtake Labour.
    What can I say, I'm an impatient man.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,202
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
    The chief prosecutor, the lord advocate, is a member of her cabinet.
    Ah, I see. Total corruptions. Time to suspend the Scottish Parliament then...
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    PoodleInASlipstreamPoodleInASlipstream Posts: 178
    edited March 2021
    ydoethur said:

    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    I think, honestly, any chance of defenestrating Sturgeon in the near future rests on the Greens. If they support the VoNC, she's gone. And they may well do, their stance on the fish war seems to have hardened of late.

    As a unionist I'm torn. The emotional part of me wants her gone, but on the other hand attempting to struggle on against a wave of terrible publicity is likely to do the SNP grevious damage.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    edited March 2021

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
    You would want @DavidL to answer that, not me, but my understanding from what he has said is that the bar for that in Scottish law is very high indeed. So it seems unlikely.

    But more pertinently, she controls the police while she is in office. So she is hardly likely to be arrested in advance of leaving it.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,871
    Can SKS fans explain

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 36% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 26 - 28 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 21 Feb
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267

    ydoethur said:

    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    I think, honestly, any chance of defenestrating Sturgeon in the near future rests on the Greens. If they support the VoNC, she's gone. And they may well do, their stance on the fish war seems to have hardened of late.

    As a unionist I'm torn. The emotional part of me wants her gone, but on the other hand attempting to struggle on against a wave of terrible publicity is likely to do the SNP grevious damage.
    When I last looked the implied odds on the SNP failing to get an outright majority were about 5/1 against (I think, it's been a busy week). If they are still there (I can't find them) that is surely VALUE
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nothing to see here: Government QC's on finding they have been duped.

    Can you explain Malc what this says in plain Scots (English)
    You lying bastards have been lying to me.
    But enough about PB...
  • Options
    O/T one for Robert and others.

    China’s Inner Mongolia has banned cryptocurrency mining and declared it will shut all such projects by April, spurring fears the world’s No. 2 economy will take more steps to eradicate the power-hungry practice.

    The autonomous region, a favorite among the industry because of its cheap power, also banned new digital coin projects, according to a draft plan posted on the Inner Mongolia Development and Reform Commission’s website Feb. 25. The aim is to constrain growth in energy consumption to about 1.9% in 2021.

    Bitcoin extended gains on Monday amid reports of the move, increasing as much as 6% in the session to $47,970.

    The announcement unnerved an industry that’s already been through a years-long Chinese campaign to clamp down amid concerns over speculative bubbles, fraud and energy waste. The draft policy was released weeks after China’s top economic planner blasted Inner Mongolia for being the only province to fail to control energy consumption in 2019.


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-rises-china-region-declares-095643753.html
  • Options
    Just seen this. So about 4/1 against him being the nominee? That's a lay.

    It's only about 4/1 he stays out of chokey.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/01/politics/trump-scrutiny-five-investigators/index.html
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Is there any chance that, despite the fact he seems to have been exposed a dirty (if not criminal) old lech and that the hypocrisy at the heart of the SNP is now plain to see, Salmond might be able to use this huge renewed publicity to get back to power and lead the secessionists to victory? (aka Malcolm's Dream)

    Aren't his favourability ratings worse than Johnson?
    Yes, but surely improving through every second of this debacle?

    I've been seriously impressed by both his ice cool and composed demeanour after what seems to have been done to him, and by his genuinely forensic attention to the details. He was surely even more impressive in his long past prime. What a shame that he wasn't then working with Westminster to make Scotland a better place to live in the UK, and that he doesn't seem to be able to control his hands.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    Amazingly, these documents, so devastating for Sturgeon, may still be redacted, and there is worse yet to be seen

    https://twitter.com/DanVevers/status/1366825432662876165?s=20
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,148
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
    You would want @DavidL to answer that, not me, but my understanding from what he has said is that the bar for that in Scottish law is very high indeed. So it seems unlikely.

    But more pertinently, she controls the police while she is in office. So she is hardly likely to be arrested in advance of leaving it.
    The police are supposed to be operationally independent
  • Options

    Can SKS fans explain

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 36% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 26 - 28 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 21 Feb

    Not a SKS fan but a vaccine bounce.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Kinda weird that the PB Nats aren't focused on the unfolding and astonishing revelation is Salmondgate. Indeed Theuniondivvie seems unusually focussed on.... the London mayoral elections

    If Sturgeon can survive this slam-dunk evidence of conspiracy, then she can survive anything, and the Scots may as well vote once, for her, as President for Life (and perhaps beyond) and have done with democracy and the rule of law

    I'm not sure a crack about the uselessness of S.Bailey quite counts as focusing on the London mayoral elections.

    Flattered as I am that you're interested in my opinion, I wouldn't like to interrupt your flow of insightful expertise on the subject.
    But you're a Scotch politics expert. It would be interesting to hear if you believe she should, now, resign: especially given the damage she is clearly doing to the indy cause
    So far, we haven’t seen *clear* evidence of that.

    Which is why, though any normal politician in any normal time would have to go, she will very probably cling on a la Priti Patel.
    But there must come a point when even the most ardent Nats realise she will, in the future, be a liability, rather than an asset. She will never escape this now.

    The entire Holyrood elections will be about this, if she clings on. That's not good optics.

    The next polling will be crucial. If she maintains her popularity, then clearly Scots are happy with this grotesque cabal in charge. Fair enough if so.
    I suspect there are a significant number in Scotland who are pro independence - but with considerable qualms. The danger is those supporters now see in black and white the SNP mantra is "win - by any means". If they have to lie about the future strength of the economy, about jobs, about EU accession, about the currency...they will do it. Brazenly, shame-facedly. If they have to subvert the police, justice, the rule of law - all a price worth paying. Well, I suspect quite a few disagree.

    And Sturgeon has now given the Unionists a wedge they desperately needed.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
    You would want @DavidL to answer that, not me, but my understanding from what he has said is that the bar for that in Scottish law is very high indeed. So it seems unlikely.

    But more pertinently, she controls the police while she is in office. So she is hardly likely to be arrested in advance of leaving it.
    The police are supposed to be operationally independent
    So are the courts.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    I thought the Salmondite wing was pretty small at this point? Even if the latest stuff causes more to spring from their hiding places she seems to have a rock solid grip on the party (though I suppose most do, until they don't).

    So none look very likely I guess.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786
    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Still a long way to go before the Lib Dems recover enough to overtake Labour.
    What can I say, I'm an impatient man.
    The LDs won't be coming back any time soon. That middle ground though can easily give rise to another party.

    Overtaking Labour might not be that hard though. The whole party is based around 19th century drug-taking.

    There simply has to be substantial change coming for the left.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
    You would want @DavidL to answer that, not me, but my understanding from what he has said is that the bar for that in Scottish law is very high indeed. So it seems unlikely.

    But more pertinently, she controls the police while she is in office. So she is hardly likely to be arrested in advance of leaving it.
    The police are supposed to be operationally independent
    So are the courts.
    She controls the senate parliament and the courts? I've seen how this plays out.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Can SKS fans explain

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 36% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 26 - 28 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 21 Feb

    Look, I'm not saying that Sir Keith's a Tory agent being paid to bore Labour voters into narcolepsy, but if he were...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
    The chief prosecutor, the lord advocate, is a member of her cabinet.
    That, at least, seems like something which is not likely to last for too much longer. These islands have had many anomalies of that nature, but as a principal it just feels wrong and opens the position up to questions it would better be avoided.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,342
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,462
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    Amazingly, these documents, so devastating for Sturgeon, may still be redacted, and there is worse yet to be seen

    https://twitter.com/DanVevers/status/1366825432662876165?s=20

    Yep, was about to mention that. If this is the PG-rated version, the post-watershed is going to be truly explosive.

    There's certainly no way Sturgeon's much 'relished opportunity' to set the record straight is going to be punching any holes in Salmond's story, whatsoever.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Just seen this. So about 4/1 against him being the nominee? That's a lay.

    It's only about 4/1 he stays out of chokey.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/01/politics/trump-scrutiny-five-investigators/index.html

    I don't think there's a chance he'll end up in chokey. You'd need 12 Democrats on the jury.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797


    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
    I know this wasn't your intention, but I seem to recall that was exactly the line of reasoning Republicans used to defend Trump in his first impeachment - that it was too complicated for ordinary people to care about, and everyone does it.

    Of course, it worked.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    No other big, once-a-year political events scheduled tomorrow, are there?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980

    Can SKS fans explain

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 36% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 26 - 28 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 21 Feb

    Corbyn and his acolytes f*cked the Labour Party so badly that a simple change of leader is not going to be enough for recovery.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    I thought the Salmondite wing was pretty small at this point? Even if the latest stuff causes more to spring from their hiding places she seems to have a rock solid grip on the party (though I suppose most do, until they don't).

    So none look very likely I guess.
    I think they could mount a challenge that would do unto her as Heseltine did unto Thatcher. Equally, I don’t think it could be done before the elections in May under the SNP’s rules.

    So if she is to be removed by force majeure, the only people who can realistically do it are the Greens. If they back a motion of no confidence, then it is game over.

    Which is why I was asking if they had said anything.

    But I am assuming they won’t simply because they will certainly not want to put a Tory or Labour led administration into power and have to explain that to their supporters.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818


    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
    Its more like Boris conspiring to jail May or Cameron isn;t it? a political rival, not a political opponent.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267


    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
    Yes, there's still a jolly good chance she will cling on, Scotland being what it is, now. Sadly. Conspiring to have your political rival jailed, and his life ruined..... is not enough grounds for resignation

    BUT I do think voters WILL notice. Support for indy has tumbled (from an historic high, it must be admitted). The first cracks have appeared in the SNP's popularity, pollingwise

    I am reminded of Hemingway's lines about bankruptcy.


    “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly"

    The SNP may slip a bit, at first, then slip a whole lot more, very quickly. They will hope this is after the election, when the fight to the death, within the party, can be concluded.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    I thought the Salmondite wing was pretty small at this point? Even if the latest stuff causes more to spring from their hiding places she seems to have a rock solid grip on the party (though I suppose most do, until they don't).

    So none look very likely I guess.
    I think they could mount a challenge that would do unto her as Heseltine did unto Thatcher. Equally, I don’t think it could be done before the elections in May under the SNP’s rules.

    So if she is to be removed by force majeure, the only people who can realistically do it are the Greens. If they back a motion of no confidence, then it is game over.

    Which is why I was asking if they had said anything.

    But I am assuming they won’t simply because they will certainly not want to put a Tory or Labour led administration into power and have to explain that to their supporters.
    What happens with/after a vote of confidence in the Scottish parliament?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
    You would want @DavidL to answer that, not me, but my understanding from what he has said is that the bar for that in Scottish law is very high indeed. So it seems unlikely.

    But more pertinently, she controls the police while she is in office. So she is hardly likely to be arrested in advance of leaving it.
    The police are supposed to be operationally independent
    So are the courts.
    She controls the senate parliament and the courts? I've seen how this plays out.
    https://youtu.be/n3DHDXAzoBA
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
    I would kind of agree ... if Sturgeon were just up against the duffers in the Scottish Labour & Tory parties.

    But, she is up against a much more formidable and unforgiving combatant.

    At the moment, I don't quite see how Sturgeon brings this matter to an end ... Salmond isn't going to shut up.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    How was Sturgeon even stupid enough to get herself in this position?

    Somewhere between hubris and utter, utter desperation.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391


    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
    This feels quite hard to try and pass off as inside baseball - the 1 line sensationalist accusation is she's part of a conspiracy to fit up her predecessor as a sex offender. It's really not a dry story.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    edited March 2021
    RobD said:

    No other big, once-a-year political events scheduled tomorrow, are there?
    Salmondgate is better than once-a-year, tho, isn't it?

    It's more like, dare I say, once-in-a-generation.

    I cannot actually remember a scandal like it, at the top of British politics. Nothing compares in my life.

    Profumo, is the closest in the history books. But that was before my time, even though I am very ancient

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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
  • Options

    There's certainly no way Sturgeon's much 'relished opportunity' to set the record straight is going to be punching any holes in Salmond's story, whatsoever.

    Now we know why Salmond had such resolute confidence in front of the inquiry.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891


    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
    Just seen the new Labour leader on Ch 4 News. A very reasonable and impressive woman. A nice change from the last few who were above all else opportunists. My guess is Nicola will walk through this her reputation intact. The desperation of the Tories (more English ones than Scottish) tells you how much they fear her
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
    Just seen the new Labour leader on Ch 4 News. A very reasonable and impressive woman. A nice change from the last few who were above all else opportunists. My guess is Nicola will walk through this her reputation intact. The desperation of the Tories (more English ones than Scottish) tells you how much they fear her
    Woman?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
    Just seen the new Labour leader on Ch 4 News. A very reasonable and impressive woman. A nice change from the last few who were above all else opportunists. My guess is Nicola will walk through this her reputation intact. The desperation of the Tories (more English ones than Scottish) tells you how much they fear her
    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    There's certainly no way Sturgeon's much 'relished opportunity' to set the record straight is going to be punching any holes in Salmond's story, whatsoever.

    Now we know why Salmond had such resolute confidence in front of the inquiry.
    I suppose it is easy when you know you are telling the truth.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    edited March 2021
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    I thought the Salmondite wing was pretty small at this point? Even if the latest stuff causes more to spring from their hiding places she seems to have a rock solid grip on the party (though I suppose most do, until they don't).

    So none look very likely I guess.
    I think they could mount a challenge that would do unto her as Heseltine did unto Thatcher. Equally, I don’t think it could be done before the elections in May under the SNP’s rules.

    So if she is to be removed by force majeure, the only people who can realistically do it are the Greens. If they back a motion of no confidence, then it is game over.

    Which is why I was asking if they had said anything.

    But I am assuming they won’t simply because they will certainly not want to put a Tory or Labour led administration into power and have to explain that to their supporters.
    What happens with/after a vote of confidence in the Scottish parliament?
    No idea. I’d be quite interested to find out, to be honest.

    I assume, given that they have to be voted into office after elections, that a MNC would automatically vote them out, but what the mechanism is for actually removing them doesn’t seem very clear.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,148
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    No wonder the Scottish cabinet were desperate to avoid publishing this.

    I’ve said all the way through that I couldn’t believe somebody of Sturgeon’s Intelligence would have lied over such a matter.

    It is becoming painfully obvious I was wrong.

    She has to resign. This is way, way worse than Patel, or even Williamson.* This is outrageous.

    *Incidentally, both of them should have resigned as well.

    Golden rule of modern politics - the more it seems someone has to resign, the less it will actually happen, as their supporters feel the need to rally round all the more.
    The three things that would force her out are (1) she or her husband being arrested (won’t happen) (2) if the Greens withdraw support for her government (unlikely, but not impossible) (3) there is a coup against her by the Salmondite wing of the SNP. That is the most likely route to her removal, however it would I think only happen and succeed if they thought she was going to go backwards at the next election and therefore would give up on a referendum.

    But that is separate from the fact that she really, really should resign.
    Is there not a possibility of arrest under conspiracy to pervert the course of justice? A la Huhne and Vickie price?
    You would want @DavidL to answer that, not me, but my understanding from what he has said is that the bar for that in Scottish law is very high indeed. So it seems unlikely.

    But more pertinently, she controls the police while she is in office. So she is hardly likely to be arrested in advance of leaving it.
    The police are supposed to be operationally independent
    So are the courts.
    They did acquit him.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797
    I hope someone really embarrasses themselves with a PMQ style softball question. "First Minister, you are so amazing, could you tell us just how right you are about everything?"

    Regrettably the opportunity may be missed.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I wonder if Sturgeon will suddenly determine that daily briefings are no longer required?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brom said:

    There is no Sturgeon exit date market is there? I can only see one for Boris and Starmer. Her position is looking increasingly perilous.

    Even if she somehow survives, she is finished as a politician in the medium term. No one can sustain this much damage to their political reputation, and prosper. Not even in Zimbabwe, sorry, Scotland
    The closest world event to this is Putin locking up Navalny. It's off the scale in terms of fucked up IMO.
    It beggars belief. It is Boris conspiring to jail Starmer, with Carrie and the Met Police and the CPS and the Attorney General all in on the plan, and apparently happy to go along, even when the hired QCs say No, Stop, this is totally illegal.

    Scotland is better than this. Or it should be
    Well, when you put it like that... Mmm. As someone pretty into politics generally but only slightly into Scottish affairs, I'm not convinced this will force a resignation - X who I've never heard of may have discussed Y with Z on date A and maybe Sturgeon has conveniently "forgotten". It sounds messy and technical, and the Tories rushing out a VONC makes me think it's some kind of party squabble. I can see from other posts here that it's actually very serious, but I think the lay voter, who thinks that all politicians lie from time to time, will just shake his head bemusedly.
    Just seen the new Labour leader on Ch 4 News. A very reasonable and impressive woman. A nice change from the last few who were above all else opportunists. My guess is Nicola will walk through this her reputation intact. The desperation of the Tories (more English ones than Scottish) tells you how much they fear her
    The new Labour leader is a man.
This discussion has been closed.