Although Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge this is not in places where it matters – polit
Comments
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Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee0 -
You think Macron is scandal free ?HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
0 -
I'm sure it's not.. unconnected.alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
But I think it's also a not inaccurate indication of who's next in line if Trump doesn't run.
Of course the whole MAGA thing could blow up between now and 2024, but that seems unlikely, even if Trump were to be jailed or have a coronary.
And Florida is the Trump base now, so it's not just any large state.0 -
The French establishment is unlikely to convict him even if he was as he is the only person stopping a Le Pen presidencyAlanbrooke said:
You think Macron is scandal free ?HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee0 -
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.4 -
Perhaps she can compare notes with Melania who is stuck with Trump at Mar a lagoAlanbrooke said:
Yeah if your Carla Bruni youre stuck at home with Sarko for a year,TheScreamingEagles said:
Stuck at home for a year with Carla Bruni, I can think of worse sentences.turbotubbs said:
An extra year of lockdown for Sarkozy... (might be at the same time as the rest of the nation, unless their vaccine roll-out speads up!HYUFD said:1 -
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...0 -
Le Pen is not "of the right" and if Macron falls it would open the way for someone else, potentially somebody not even named currently, to step forward instead.HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
Options are not restricted to the ones currently leading opinion polls.-1 -
I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.MarqueeMark said:
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)FrancisUrquhart said:I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:
"Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
0 -
Manny Shilwell?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.MarqueeMark said:
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)FrancisUrquhart said:I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.1 -
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nominationDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...1 -
If we get a Le Pen presidency I dont fancy his chances.HYUFD said:
The French establishment is unlikely to convict him even if he was as he is the only person stopping a Le Pen presidencyAlanbrooke said:
You think Macron is scandal free ?HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
The french establishment is currently too distracted with incest and paedo scandals to pay much attention0 -
French Presidents have immunity from prosecution, don't they?Alanbrooke said:
You think Macron is scandal free ?HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee0 -
Win the nomination or win the election?Dura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
The former is much, much, much more likely than the latter.0 -
If we got a Le Pen presidency then yes Macron could join Sarkozy in jail as she sweeps away the old French establishmentAlanbrooke said:
If we get a Le Pen presidency I dont fancy his chances.HYUFD said:
The French establishment is unlikely to convict him even if he was as he is the only person stopping a Le Pen presidencyAlanbrooke said:
You think Macron is scandal free ?HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
The french establishment is currently too distracted with incest and paedo scandals to pay much attention0 -
Jail or mortality might intervene, of course.Dura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...0 -
It would be useful if the EU actually had people vaccinated to qualify for one....TheScreamingEagles said:3 -
Both DeSantis and Noem are fairly credible GOP contenders. Interesting that Noem was on 11% (and DeSantis 43%) in a hypothetical "Trump doesn't run" scenario. That is ahead of Don Jnr (8%) and Cruz (7%). Both pass the loyalty test and are away from DC which is an advantage in terms of avoiding some of the Trump fallout.Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
I remain of a view Trump won't run in the end. He has to say rattle that sabre to retain influence, but has legal and financial issues to consider, has lost his social media presence, will be 78, and will fear losing again.0 -
until they stop being president - see Sarkozyalex_ said:
French Presidents have immunity from prosecution, don't they?Alanbrooke said:
You think Macron is scandal free ?HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee0 -
Le Pen is of the right, just the nationalist, populist right.Philip_Thompson said:
Le Pen is not "of the right" and if Macron falls it would open the way for someone else, potentially somebody not even named currently, to step forward instead.HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
Options are not restricted to the ones currently leading opinion polls.
In France the leader of the opposition to the liberal Macron is effectively Le Pen's party now given the collapse of the centre right.
If Macron was convicted that would be the liberal left contaminated by corruption just as the centre right has been, opening the way for Le Pen0 -
Schools add 0.3-0.5 to the value of R (exact value unknown but it's significant).Cookie said:
I take the opposite view - the government is far too ready to close schools, despite the clear evidence of the long-term harm it does them, especially the most disadvantaged. I expect it's because they hate children.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was shorthand.turbotubbs said:
But why does that mean the government 'hates children'? I'd get it if you thought it was a risk to the population of South Gloucs, but you didn't say that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the ones in South Gloucestershire don't appear to be a priority for the government.turbotubbs said:
I don't think sending kids to school is 'hating children' is it? What would you prefer - endlessly keeping them home on the off chance that one of them might get a sniffle?TheScreamingEagles said:This government really does hate children.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1366367835669360640
But for the hard of understanding, children don't appear to get sick from Covid-19 but they have a tendency to spread it to their parents and carers, which is sub optimal for the kids.
As I said upthread, Gavin Williamson made this decision, just like the decision to open the schools for just one day in January despite the overwhelming evidence, there's an unfortunate pattern with this government when it comes to schools.
Or possibly it's because there are people in DfT and elsewhere in government trying to come to an overall view taking competing interests ad pressures into account who happen to have come to the opposite conclusion to me.
For numbers to be reduced R needs to be less than 1 and with schools closed the number is 0.6 to 0.9. With schools open that figure is going to be between 0.9 and 1.4 so lets hope that the figures reduce further before next week.
The simple fact is that the Christmas peak meant there was no choice but to close schools.2 -
I doubt he's going to run. He's just keeping the possibility open mainly becauseDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
1) it allows him to make enormous amounts of money, which he's going to need for all his legal bills
2) it allows him to paint legal action against him as politically motivated
1 -
Very good. He wasn't actually a member of the House of Lords when he reached 100, I think, as he was a phased out hereditary. But clearly he was a peer, as was Manny Shilwell as DixieDean says.MarqueeMark said:
I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.MarqueeMark said:
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)FrancisUrquhart said:I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:
"Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."0 -
No it would lead a void and someone would step into that void. It wouldn't just eliminate an entire chunk of people.HYUFD said:
Le Pen is of the right, just the nationalist, populist right.Philip_Thompson said:
Le Pen is not "of the right" and if Macron falls it would open the way for someone else, potentially somebody not even named currently, to step forward instead.HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
Options are not restricted to the ones currently leading opinion polls.
In France the leader of the opposition to the liberal Macron is effectively Le Pen's party now given the collapse of the centre right.
If Macron was convicted that would be the liberal left contaminated by corruption just as the centre right has been, opening the way for Le Pen0 -
J&J have received approval for a trial in babies, kids, pregnant women and people not usually eligible for a vaccine due to health issues. The regulator must be supremely confident in the safety and efficacy.3
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It really is very unlikely for any of us to get to 100. The demographic stats on this are quite amazing. Getting to 90 nowadays is utterly unremarkable - over half of us will make it. But that final ten years to 100 defeats almost everyone. Even if you make 99, it's no more than 50/50 you'll get to your hundredth birthday.dixiedean said:
Manny Shilwell?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.MarqueeMark said:
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)FrancisUrquhart said:I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
Best of luck to the Duke though.0 -
The kerfuffle around the Kent variant's effect on R is significant here. Adding 0.7 to R was bandied around, but it was never going to be that simple. Same with schools. Undoubtedly there will be an increase, but the behaviour round me suggests it might not be as big as expected, simply because so much mixing is already going on. I think we are seeing the vaccine effect dropping R slightly at the same time that mixing is pushing it up, so it appears to be stable (between 0.6 to 0.9).eek said:
Schools add 0.3-0.5 to the value of R (exact value unknown but it's significant).Cookie said:
I take the opposite view - the government is far too ready to close schools, despite the clear evidence of the long-term harm it does them, especially the most disadvantaged. I expect it's because they hate children.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was shorthand.turbotubbs said:
But why does that mean the government 'hates children'? I'd get it if you thought it was a risk to the population of South Gloucs, but you didn't say that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the ones in South Gloucestershire don't appear to be a priority for the government.turbotubbs said:
I don't think sending kids to school is 'hating children' is it? What would you prefer - endlessly keeping them home on the off chance that one of them might get a sniffle?TheScreamingEagles said:This government really does hate children.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1366367835669360640
But for the hard of understanding, children don't appear to get sick from Covid-19 but they have a tendency to spread it to their parents and carers, which is sub optimal for the kids.
As I said upthread, Gavin Williamson made this decision, just like the decision to open the schools for just one day in January despite the overwhelming evidence, there's an unfortunate pattern with this government when it comes to schools.
Or possibly it's because there are people in DfT and elsewhere in government trying to come to an overall view taking competing interests ad pressures into account who happen to have come to the opposite conclusion to me.
For numbers to be reduced R needs to be less than 1 and with schools closed the number is 0.6 to 0.9. With schools open that figure is going to be between 0.9 and 1.4 so lets hope that the figures reduce further before next week.
The simple fact is that the Christmas peak meant there was no choice but to close schools.
Maybe I'm just too optimistic.0 -
These guys are just 15 minutes down I270. I should go visit once life returns a little more to normal.Nigelb said:1 -
Well there would be establishment candidates but with the entire French establishment contaminated by corruption and the leading figures of the liberal left and centre right in jail the way would be open for Le PenPhilip_Thompson said:
No it would lead a void and someone would step into that void. It wouldn't just eliminate an entire chunk of people.HYUFD said:
Le Pen is of the right, just the nationalist, populist right.Philip_Thompson said:
Le Pen is not "of the right" and if Macron falls it would open the way for someone else, potentially somebody not even named currently, to step forward instead.HYUFD said:
Unlikely I think.Alanbrooke said:
Sarkozy then MacronHYUFD said:
Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jailMattW said:
Nothing like accurate reporting.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1366376074750398464
The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
Options are not restricted to the ones currently leading opinion polls.
In France the leader of the opposition to the liberal Macron is effectively Le Pen's party now given the collapse of the centre right.
If Macron was convicted that would be the liberal left contaminated by corruption just as the centre right has been, opening the way for Le Pen0 -
As a peer of first creation I assume DoE is still formally a member of the Lords?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Very good. He wasn't actually a member of the House of Lords when he reached 100, I think, as he was a phased out hereditary. But clearly he was a peer, as was Manny Shilwell as DixieDean says.MarqueeMark said:
I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.MarqueeMark said:
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)FrancisUrquhart said:I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:
"Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."0 -
Isn't that the whole point of a trial? To determine safety (and efficacy). I don't think trials are as simple as giving somebody a full dose and seeing if they drop dead.MaxPB said:J&J have received approval for a trial in babies, kids, pregnant women and people not usually eligible for a vaccine due to health issues. The regulator must be supremely confident in the safety and efficacy.
0 -
Indeed, the seasons have certainly been seasonal!Cookie said:On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
I'm not familiar with the book (?) however –– what transpires? It is that South Oxon in under some sort of spell where its weather is always perfectly seasonal?0 -
It's quite a lot harder to pull that off with AMD cards than NVidia ones, and fairly easy to spot - google the card model and check the sockets on the I/O plate match. Old cards will lack a displayport socket.FrancisUrquhart said:On ebay, be wary of the fake ones though....that are so super old GPU that has had firmware hacked to make it read out that it is a much more recent model.
0 -
I knew an elderly lady who reached her 100th birthday in fine mental form (if physically tired), opened her card from the Queen with her family, had a couple of glasses of bucks fizz, retired for her usual nap, and simply never woke up.MarqueeMark said:
I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.MarqueeMark said:
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)FrancisUrquhart said:I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:
"Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
That is the way to go.0 -
Yes, though for the groups mentioned there is a much higher bar for trial approval, the pharma must already have evidence of no serious adverse reactions and of likely efficacy to make the risk worthwhile.alex_ said:
Isn't that the whole point of a trial? To determine safety (and efficacy). I don't think trials are as simple as giving somebody a full dose and seeing if they drop dead.MaxPB said:J&J have received approval for a trial in babies, kids, pregnant women and people not usually eligible for a vaccine due to health issues. The regulator must be supremely confident in the safety and efficacy.
0 -
I note that the very same Trumptons who ramped him last time are doing so again. Take your perverted fantasies to MrEd.Dura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...0 -
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.HYUFD said:
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nominationDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...0 -
She has the option of going on a world tour (travel restrictions and UK visa issues permitting).Alanbrooke said:
Yeah if your Carla Bruni youre stuck at home with Sarko for a year,TheScreamingEagles said:
Stuck at home for a year with Carla Bruni, I can think of worse sentences.turbotubbs said:
An extra year of lockdown for Sarkozy... (might be at the same time as the rest of the nation, unless their vaccine roll-out speads up!HYUFD said:0 -
Apparently not.Alphabet_Soup said:
As a peer of first creation I assume DoE is still formally a member of the Lords?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Very good. He wasn't actually a member of the House of Lords when he reached 100, I think, as he was a phased out hereditary. But clearly he was a peer, as was Manny Shilwell as DixieDean says.MarqueeMark said:
I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.MarqueeMark said:
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)FrancisUrquhart said:I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:
"Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."0 -
A standing backflip counts for something, surely?DecrepiterJohnL said:OT Shaun Bailey's London Mayor leaflet has arrived.
Made to look like a magazine titled London Life, with eight A5-sized colour, glossy pages. The cover photo has Shaun's multi-racial family on its way to the park. The centre spread is a two-page interview by Karren Brady. Page 2 has a photo of Shaun with Rishi; page 3 his experience working for David Cameron; oh, and some geezer called Boris commends him in a paragraph on page 7. Page 6 is given over to Ellie Bailey, who unsurprisingly backs her husband.
The back page is given over to "9 questions with Shaun Bailey" where he lays out his political philosophy and policies. Only joking! He likes Greggs doughnuts, Flash Gordon and can do a standing backflip. Vote Shaun!!
To be fair, there is some policy chat with Karren Brady. There's at least one typo and no URL that I can see, thought there is a QR code and various social media handles.0 -
There appear to be competent German political cartoonists.
https://twitter.com/viewer112/status/13663050319815843841 -
Also to must add that AZ have got active trials in the same groups as J&J and Pfizer are doing trials for 13-17 year olds too. Hopefully the AZ vaccine gets approved for use in 5+ year olds before the end of June so that a vaccine programme can be initiated for them before the start of the school year.0
-
Adenoviruses are a well-developed vehicle for introduction of target viral genetic material, and have been used in other vaccines before COVID. One of the advantages is their known safety, and the fact that the virus' DNA does not integrate with the human cell genome, so cannot result in mutagenesis.alex_ said:
Isn't that the whole point of a trial? To determine safety (and efficacy). I don't think trials are as simple as giving somebody a full dose and seeing if they drop dead.MaxPB said:J&J have received approval for a trial in babies, kids, pregnant women and people not usually eligible for a vaccine due to health issues. The regulator must be supremely confident in the safety and efficacy.
My guess is that J&J and the FDA have looked at the safety data for adenovirus vaccines against other diseases and deemed the safety results in those specific groups to those other vaccines to be sufficiently good to warrant confirmatory safety testing with the COVID version of the vaccine.2 -
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.Stocky said:
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.HYUFD said:
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nominationDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...3 -
-
Belgium:
The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!
https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/13663214875405885462 -
Pretty much, yes. It turns out that the spawn of the devil lives there. Though the child in question doesn't realise e is the spawn of the devil. He's just able through sheer force of will to make things turn out how he thinks they ought to.Anabobazina said:
Indeed, the seasons have certainly been seasonal!Cookie said:On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
I'm not familiar with the book (?) however –– what transpires? It is that South Oxon in under some sort of spell where its weather is always perfectly seasonal?0 -
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.MikeSmithson said:
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.Stocky said:
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.HYUFD said:
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nominationDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate0 -
Will Gavin Williamson's Free Speech Champion be looking at the silencing and cancelling of Greenslade, I wonder? Does Greenslade's decision to fall on his sword represent a 'silencing of voices and a chilling effect of censorship on campus'? (Quote G. Williamson).FrancisUrquhart said:Guardian columnist Roy Greenslade resigns from City University post
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9312399/Guardian-columnist-Roy-Greenslade-resigns-City-University-post.html
Probably not.2 -
SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There is quite a lot that doesn't say. In particular, it doesn't say "improving".turbotubbs said:Prince Phillip 'responding to treatment' and 'remains comfortable'... Why do I suspect that is far from the truth?
Sadly.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There is quite a lot that doesn't say. In particular, it doesn't say "improving".turbotubbs said:Prince Phillip 'responding to treatment' and 'remains comfortable'... Why do I suspect that is far from the truth?
Nearly 100. 13 days in hospital. And needing to be moved.
That doesn't add up to a positive prognosis to me.0 -
Norman Lamont’s ‘red box’ is but a distant memory ...CarlottaVance said:0 -
Interesting suggestion that the vaccines might be effective in ameliorating 'long Covid'.
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/13660678494800486430 -
It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.HYUFD said:
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.MikeSmithson said:
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.Stocky said:
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.HYUFD said:
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nominationDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)0 -
OTOH, it is the Monarch's spouse. They are going to be where they get THE best specialist care. Which might mean moving them as their condition is fully ascertained.dixiedean said:SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There is quite a lot that doesn't say. In particular, it doesn't say "improving".turbotubbs said:Prince Phillip 'responding to treatment' and 'remains comfortable'... Why do I suspect that is far from the truth?
Sadly.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There is quite a lot that doesn't say. In particular, it doesn't say "improving".turbotubbs said:Prince Phillip 'responding to treatment' and 'remains comfortable'... Why do I suspect that is far from the truth?
Nearly 100. 13 days in hospital. And needing to be moved.
That doesn't add up to a positive prognosis to me.0 -
I wonder whether that's because of the vaccine induced neutralising antibodies getting rid of dead viral cells that could be driving an auto-immune response that seems to be associated with the condition.Nigelb said:Interesting suggestion that the vaccines might be effective in ameliorating 'long Covid'.
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/13660678494800486430 -
If I was Boris, I would be worried about how long it is until I get the shove....Superficially, not only better than Boris, but comes across much better than Gordon Starmer.CarlottaVance said:twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1366388631267590146?s=20
While Starmer is trying to redo Blair 1997 playbook, Dishy Rishi is doing 2020 slicker updated modern version.0 -
This, and Naomi Wolf's recent mad tweet, provide further evidence for my assertion that analogies rarely illuminate, and often do quite the opposite.
https://twitter.com/Garnet_Smuczer/status/13658799490313338941 -
"En dat is heel goed nieuws!"MattW said:Belgium:
The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!
https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1366321487540588546
That isn't a proper foreign language, that is just Johnny Dutchman taking the piss out of English!3 -
Not wearing a tie. Finally he looks like a normal person wearing a crew neck jumper over a shirt. The whole hoodie over the shirt and tie combo was just so awful.CarlottaVance said:0 -
For no apparent reason, my family decided to do some attic-clearing one Saturday. We discovered all kinds of stuff, mementoes, memorabilia, etc. We went downstairs and that afternoon looked through it all with my father, aged 75 who although ill and tired, was very lively, active, and certainly compos mentis.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I knew an elderly lady who reached her 100th birthday in fine mental form (if physically tired), opened her card from the Queen with her family, had a couple of glasses of bucks fizz, retired for her usual nap, and simply never woke up.MarqueeMark said:
I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.MarqueeMark said:
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)FrancisUrquhart said:I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:
"Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
That is the way to go.
We laughed all afternoon (my father it turns out, for example, had a Communist Party of GB membership card - required for a just post-WWII demob choir performance in some venue or other, apparently) and quaffed champagne throughout before we all headed off to our homes. And at 2am that night my mother phoned me to say my father had died in his sleep.
Sad as it was (you can "prepare" yourself for as long as you like but it's always still a shock) on reflection - this was many years ago - I am so pleased that he didn't die hooked up to tubes, or in pain, or having forgotten who he and we all were.5 -
Not hugely happy with the 75-84yr old cohort, that said...what's going on there?MattW said:Belgium:
The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!
https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/13663214875405885460 -
It is shares of deaths. So if one comes down, others have to go up.TOPPING said:
Not hugely happy with the 75-84yr old cohort, that said...what's going on there?MattW said:Belgium:
The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!
https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/13663214875405885460 -
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.0 -
A percentage of 100 - as the Crumblies fall out, the others rise to replace them.TOPPING said:
Not hugely happy with the 75-84yr old cohort, that said...what's going on there?MattW said:Belgium:
The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!
https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/13663214875405885460 -
Ah yes sorry I didn't look properly. Thought it might be.. And @MarqueeMark also thanks.TimT said:
It is shares of deaths. So if one comes down, others have to go up.TOPPING said:
Not hugely happy with the 75-84yr old cohort, that said...what's going on there?MattW said:Belgium:
The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!
https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/13663214875405885460 -
Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.0 -
I am sad, and slightly hurt, that Mike is still using net figures rather than my new fangled way of Gross Positives with a turnout tweak (TM)!
Unless leader ratings are filtered by likelihood to vote, and I don't know if they are or not, then 30% of respondents, for the most part the "don't knows", are irrelevant, it seems to me, and the number that matters, crudely, is Gross Positives/702 -
It's an improvement on last Monday at least!FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.0 -
If Boris became unpopular Sunak would hope to be Major to his post poll tax Thatcher and Starmer's Kinnock.FrancisUrquhart said:
If I was Boris, I would be worried about how long it is until I get the shove....Superficially, not only better than Boris, but comes across much better than Gordon Starmer.CarlottaVance said:twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1366388631267590146?s=20
While Starmer is trying to redo Blair 1997 playbook, Dishy Rishi is doing 2020 slicker updated modern version.
At the moment though Boris is sensible enough to avoid any poll tax style disasters0 -
You need to migrate Gordon to F.FrancisUrquhart said:
If I was Boris, I would be worried about how long it is until I get the shove....Superficially, not only better than Boris, but comes across much better than Gordon Starmer.CarlottaVance said:twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1366388631267590146?s=20
While Starmer is trying to redo Blair 1997 playbook, Dishy Rishi is doing 2020 slicker updated modern version.
Foggy (LOTSW), then nominative determinism would kick in.0 -
The professor's tweet thread suggests several possible mechanisms, of which that is indeed one.MaxPB said:
I wonder whether that's because of the vaccine induced neutralising antibodies getting rid of dead viral cells that could be driving an auto-immune response that seems to be associated with the condition.Nigelb said:Interesting suggestion that the vaccines might be effective in ameliorating 'long Covid'.
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/13660678494800486430 -
Does anyone know the timeline for the J&J vaccine in the UK?0
-
Weekend numbers.Gallowgate said:
Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.0 -
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.Cookie said:On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
Quite remarkable.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif1 -
Trump lost because his approval rating was not good enough ie it was significantly under 50%, extra postal voting as you say merely boosted turnout overall, not only for Biden but for Trump too.Stocky said:
It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.HYUFD said:
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.MikeSmithson said:
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.Stocky said:
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.HYUFD said:
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nominationDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
If Biden's approval rating also falls well under 50% by 2024 then Trump will fancy his chances, postal voting or not0 -
One of the side benefits of COVID that Robert mentioned:
https://academictimes.com/first-vaccine-to-fully-immunize-against-malaria-builds-on-pandemic-driven-rna-tech/?fbclid=IwAR3qm4YYiEewZdFHuuwJtkFhisQy5Jl10SxRtp1Lp92fGEUWBs6Tm1OPRUU0 -
All that tells us is that Dem voters were more likely to take Covid seriously and, therefore, much more inclined to vote by post than in person in 2020. Presuming that we’re back to normal in 2024, the propensity of postal votes to be Dem won’t be apparent any longer.Stocky said:
It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.HYUFD said:
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.MikeSmithson said:
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.Stocky said:
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.HYUFD said:
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nominationDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)0 -
You'd think Saturday and Sunday would be the busiest days considering a lot of people are not at work...MaxPB said:
Weekend numbers.Gallowgate said:
Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.0 -
Good for second place at least, I'd say. Never underestimate the gymnastics vote.Stocky said:
A standing backflip counts for something, surely?DecrepiterJohnL said:OT Shaun Bailey's London Mayor leaflet has arrived.
Made to look like a magazine titled London Life, with eight A5-sized colour, glossy pages. The cover photo has Shaun's multi-racial family on its way to the park. The centre spread is a two-page interview by Karren Brady. Page 2 has a photo of Shaun with Rishi; page 3 his experience working for David Cameron; oh, and some geezer called Boris commends him in a paragraph on page 7. Page 6 is given over to Ellie Bailey, who unsurprisingly backs her husband.
The back page is given over to "9 questions with Shaun Bailey" where he lays out his political philosophy and policies. Only joking! He likes Greggs doughnuts, Flash Gordon and can do a standing backflip. Vote Shaun!!
To be fair, there is some policy chat with Karren Brady. There's at least one typo and no URL that I can see, thought there is a QR code and various social media handles.2 -
And haven't we had some of the biggest days over the weekend?Gallowgate said:
You'd think Saturday and Sunday would be the busiest days considering a lot of people are not at work...MaxPB said:
Weekend numbers.Gallowgate said:
Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.
But it is obvious, from every govt announcement, that we're going to see some huge numbers in the days and weeks of March ahead.1 -
And if Trump's approval rating gets to 75%, he'll probably win too.HYUFD said:
Trump lost because his approval rating was not good enough ie it was significantly under 50%, extra postal voting as you say merely boosted turnout overall, not only for Biden but for Trump too.Stocky said:
It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.HYUFD said:
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.MikeSmithson said:
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.Stocky said:
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.HYUFD said:
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nominationDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
If Biden's approval rating also falls well under 50% by 2024 then Trump will fancy his chances, postal voting or not0 -
As a conservative Rishi Sunak said he's in favour of low taxes. He likes low taxes so much he raising taxes from the highest in decades to the highest in even more decades.MaxPB said:
Not wearing a tie. Finally he looks like a normal person wearing a crew neck jumper over a shirt. The whole hoodie over the shirt and tie combo was just so awful.CarlottaVance said:
He's like the sort of Fox who is very much in favour of chicken welfare.2 -
Jackie Baillie Deputy Leader & on health:
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1366385680646082561?s=200 -
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The healthier your chickens, the more there is to eat.contrarian said:
As a conservative Rishi Sunak said he's in favour of low taxes. He likes low taxes so much he raising taxes from the highest in decades to the highest in even more decades.MaxPB said:
Not wearing a tie. Finally he looks like a normal person wearing a crew neck jumper over a shirt. The whole hoodie over the shirt and tie combo was just so awful.CarlottaVance said:
He's like the sort of Fox who is very much in favour of chicken welfare.2 -
Tomorrow's will be poor too surely. Wednesday good.FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.0 -
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.LostPassword said:
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.Cookie said:On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
Quite remarkable.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif0 -
Do we know if that's a reflection on activity or of reporting?MaxPB said:
Weekend numbers.Gallowgate said:
Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.0 -
F1: this is certainly an extreme angle on the difficult choice of spending resources in the short versus long term.
But it may be right for Haas.
https://twitter.com/Motorsport/status/13663373538502451250 -
I suspect they are still keeping some in reserve for 2nd doses. Given the numbers always increase from Wednesday I would expect then is when we are going to see some really big numbers coming out. I can't imagine this won't happen given the briefing around a bumper March.Gallowgate said:
Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.0 -
How many variants are the lockdown lunatics going to throw at Boris and Co. between now and June?2
-
The Beast from the East 2018 and the follow up snowy bout a fortnight later were both in March.Sforzando said:
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.LostPassword said:
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.Cookie said:On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
Quite remarkable.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif0 -
Lock her up, and throw away the keys.HYUFD said:
All of them.0 -
It is today. We're officially in Spring.Sforzando said:
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.LostPassword said:
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.Cookie said:On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
Quite remarkable.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif0 -
If the surge in postal voting was purely to do with people (mostly dems) electing to vote by post rather than by polling station due to safety concerns (as you say) then the total turnout wouldn`t have been so exceptionally high.ThomasNashe said:
All that tells us is that Dem voters were more likely to take Covid seriously and, therefore, much more inclined to vote by post than in person in 2020. Presuming that we’re back to normal in 2024, the propensity of postal votes to be Dem won’t be apparent any longer.Stocky said:
It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.HYUFD said:
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.MikeSmithson said:
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.Stocky said:
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.HYUFD said:
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nominationDura_Ace said:
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.HYUFD said:
Trump-De Santis 2024?alex_ said:
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?Nigelb said:Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
There was some of that for sure but there were undoubtedly more votes cast in 2020 because of the rule change in some states to allow postal voting where it wouldn`t previously have been allowed, and these votes would not have materialised in a normal election.0 -
The current theory is that this is actually Saturdays numbers. We will get Sundays tomorrow....CarlottaVance said:
Do we know if that's a reflection on activity or of reporting?MaxPB said:
Weekend numbers.Gallowgate said:
Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20
Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.0 -
CPAC showed us conservatives who dealt with covid the way conservatives always should have.Nigelb said:
In Noem's speech She claimed Fauci said her strategy would lead to 10,000 SD hospitalisations. They topped out at a little over six hundred.
0 -
..0
