How do you know that? It's a vicious circle. They don't get covered, so we don't know what they are saying, which leads to them not having anything to contribute.
Usual story. Those in charge of the agenda (the government) have everything their way.
I wouldn't worry about the frequent "what's the point of the Lib Dems?" from some on here. It's part of the background noise - the Party doesn't have to justify its existence to Conservative activists.
Try asking them "what's the point of the Conservative Party?".
Quite lately, and in the medium term, it has been about winning power and empowering individuals over vested interests.
Power for its own sakes, but certainly empowering the vested interests of Tory cronies.
There is no party to vote for supporting financial prudence, just different magic money forests.
Was wondering earlier today exactly why it was that hacks had been asking Allegra Stratton about what would happen to Tory MPs who voted down the Budget, to which she of course replied that the whip would be removed. I thought that Budgets were always regarded as a matter of confidence, so why would anyone bother to ask?
Anyhow, the Torygraph is now reporting ructions over a mooted hike in CGT. Now, what I know about tax accountancy could be summarised on the back of a postage stamp, but I'm guessing that this is something along the lines of bringing the bands into line with those for income tax, which I seem previously to remember reading ought to raise quite a lot of revenue - at the expense, of course, of those rich enough to be paying CGT in the first place.
Now, I may be missing something obvious here, but I'm not at all sure why the Chancellor WOULDN'T take the opportunity to give the rich a bit of a soaking. He's got to start work on balancing the books some time, most of the affected people are probably rolling in money after having their high incomes bolstered with the abolition of commuting (and can therefore well afford the extra expense,) and the Red Wall will be more than happy to hear those pips squeak if it means more cash for Our Beloved NHS.
After all, the next election is going to be fought primarily in the Midlands and the North, not down South. And it doesn't much matter if the Tories cause a mild wave of indignation to propagate through the stockbroker belt. It's not as if wealthy voters have anywhere preferable to go.
Fat chance of that happening. The Tory party would break up the union, scrap the monarchy and cut the defence budget before they raised capital gains tax.
Quite a few stories of Tory tax rebellions tonight (Telly/FT).
Did the backbenchers expect spending close to half a trillion would come without a price tag?
They've probably all assumed that if taxes are *CUT* by enough then somehow economic growth will magically make the debts disappear. Because Laffer Curve, or something.
Either that or they were planning to recoup the losses by doing various ghastly things to the poor and the unemployed. Who can say?
How do you know that? It's a vicious circle. They don't get covered, so we don't know what they are saying, which leads to them not having anything to contribute.
Usual story. Those in charge of the agenda (the government) have everything their way.
I wouldn't worry about the frequent "what's the point of the Lib Dems?" from some on here. It's part of the background noise - the Party doesn't have to justify its existence to Conservative activists.
Try asking them "what's the point of the Conservative Party?".
Quite lately, and in the medium term, it has been about winning power and empowering individuals over vested interests.
Power for its own sakes, but certainly empowering the vested interests of Tory cronies.
There is no party to vote for supporting financial prudence, just different magic money forests.
Rolling back the power of unions has been a consistent benefit for the British people since the 80s. Tories don't get the thanks they deserve for it.
How do you know that? It's a vicious circle. They don't get covered, so we don't know what they are saying, which leads to them not having anything to contribute.
Usual story. Those in charge of the agenda (the government) have everything their way.
I wouldn't worry about the frequent "what's the point of the Lib Dems?" from some on here. It's part of the background noise - the Party doesn't have to justify its existence to Conservative activists.
Try asking them "what's the point of the Conservative Party?".
Quite lately, and in the medium term, it has been about winning power and empowering individuals over vested interests.
How can you say that, when all the vested interests are Johnson, his cronies and his financial backers?
At some stage people will see through all this Conservative spin for the nonsense it is.
And grabbing power is not an end in itself. What do they want power for?
Quite a few stories of Tory tax rebellions tonight (Telly/FT).
Did the backbenchers expect spending close to half a trillion would come without a price tag?
They've probably all assumed that if taxes are *CUT* by enough then somehow economic growth will magically make the debts disappear. Because Laffer Curve, or something.
Either that or they were planning to recoup the losses by doing various ghastly things to the poor and the unemployed. Who can say?
It occurred to me that if you wanted to wring concessions from the government on something (EG faster lockdown end), you might choose an important bill labour were actually going to vote against.
The Jewish Marriage Council (JMC) has said that while young Jews from a strictly Orthodox background are not “forced” to marry, they can nevertheless feel “coerced”.
In its astonishing admission, the Hendon-based organisation appeared to be trying to justify the traditional Charedi shidduch system of families working together for their children to meet in arranged introductions.
“This is done with consent from both parties which is a requirement under Jewish law,” said the JMC. “While there may be instances whereby one might feel coerced, we have not come across any party feeling as if they have been forced.”
How do you know that? It's a vicious circle. They don't get covered, so we don't know what they are saying, which leads to them not having anything to contribute.
Usual story. Those in charge of the agenda (the government) have everything their way.
I wouldn't worry about the frequent "what's the point of the Lib Dems?" from some on here. It's part of the background noise - the Party doesn't have to justify its existence to Conservative activists.
Try asking them "what's the point of the Conservative Party?".
Quite lately, and in the medium term, it has been about winning power and empowering individuals over vested interests.
Power for its own sakes, but certainly empowering the vested interests of Tory cronies.
There is no party to vote for supporting financial prudence, just different magic money forests.
Rolling back the power of unions has been a consistent benefit for the British people since the 80s. Tories don't get the thanks they deserve for it.
But we don't mind. We know we're doing good work.
What rolling back of union power has happened since the eighties? That was 30 years ago!
By the way this is the best acronym any organisation has come up with in years.
A coalition of charities campaigning to toughen alcohol laws in the UK have penned an open letter calling for public Purim celebrations to be outlawed because they “promote excessive drinking”.
Alcoholism Care & Treatment (ACT), the Campaign for Alcohol Limits (CAL), and the nationwide Public Intoxication Support Team (PIST) came together to urge London boroughs with large Jewish populations to put a stop to Purim partying, even after the pandemic.
How do you know that? It's a vicious circle. They don't get covered, so we don't know what they are saying, which leads to them not having anything to contribute.
Usual story. Those in charge of the agenda (the government) have everything their way.
I wouldn't worry about the frequent "what's the point of the Lib Dems?" from some on here. It's part of the background noise - the Party doesn't have to justify its existence to Conservative activists.
Try asking them "what's the point of the Conservative Party?".
Quite lately, and in the medium term, it has been about winning power and empowering individuals over vested interests.
How can you say that, when all the vested interests are Johnson, his cronies and his financial backers?
At some stage people will see through all this Conservative spin for the nonsense it is.
And grabbing power is not an end in itself. What do they want power for?
Via @Kantar_UKI , 18-22 Feb. Changes w/ 21-25 Jan.
SKS fans please explain
DBMIVN (Don't blame me I voted Nandy)
What has caused the sudden surge in LD support to 11%?
Ed Davey doesn't try to squeeze three Union Jacks into the background every time he does an interview? It works for me,
The Lib Dems have recently started a big on line campaign called Maraphone. It may be that this is triggering dormant Lib Dem support.
They're vaguely active in support of their London Mayoral candidate (Porritt). Not enough to make a dent though and I apologise for my prior betting recommendation (admittedly at 800 or so).
Davey is achieving nothing and being seen to be achieving nothing.
Conspiracy or cock-up? Or both conspiracy and cock-up? Or multiple conspiracies and cock-ups? Or bungled conspiracies and fumbled cock-ups? We need clarity.
Via @Kantar_UKI , 18-22 Feb. Changes w/ 21-25 Jan.
SKS fans please explain
DBMIVN (Don't blame me I voted Nandy)
What has caused the sudden surge in LD support to 11%?
I think the LibDems will remain invisible at national level but are firing up the Quattro at local level.
It is the usual story of fighting for coverage in any National media when most papers and channels are talking about vaccine, holidays and schoolchildren at home. It's the same reason that Johnson's government is getting away with the massive decline in our exports in certain industries due to the new Brexit paperwork without any real comeback.
But the more unusual story is that they appear to have nothing to say. On anything. They invested so heavily in "Bollocks to Brexit", that with it gone they appear, well, emasculated.
How do you know that? It's a vicious circle. They don't get covered, so we don't know what they are saying, which leads to them not having anything to contribute.
Usual story. Those in charge of the agenda (the government) have everything their way.
Because if they had any story, we would hear it on pb.com. Their supporters here are not exactly shy and retiring.
The utter silence from the LibDems here tells the story. Sir Ed is leading the way - by saying nothing.
Any new policies will just get nicked by Johnson anyway, best to keep the powder dry.
How do you know that? It's a vicious circle. They don't get covered, so we don't know what they are saying, which leads to them not having anything to contribute.
Usual story. Those in charge of the agenda (the government) have everything their way.
I wouldn't worry about the frequent "what's the point of the Lib Dems?" from some on here. It's part of the background noise - the Party doesn't have to justify its existence to Conservative activists.
Try asking them "what's the point of the Conservative Party?".
Quite lately, and in the medium term, it has been about winning power and empowering individuals over vested interests.
Power for its own sakes, but certainly empowering the vested interests of Tory cronies.
There is no party to vote for supporting financial prudence, just different magic money forests.
Rolling back the power of unions has been a consistent benefit for the British people since the 80s. Tories don't get the thanks they deserve for it.
But we don't mind. We know we're doing good work.
What rolling back of union power has happened since the eighties? That was 30 years ago!
Done sterling work rolling back the power of ‘the’ Union currently.
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
Perhaps the refusers are bunched together in certain places?
You inadvertently make a good point. SKS should model hiimself on Merkel not on these tinsel and glitter poseurs. He's looking for an identity. Who in the world commands more respect than Angela?
I think Starmer always looks rather uncomfortable, as if suffering from Imposter Syndrome. His manifest success from modest beginnings, his stiffness and awkwardness and even how he dresses speak of this to me.
We have a political system where braying self conceit are rewarded rather than conscientious self doubt and introversion, though the latter tend to be much more effective at the real work, as any employer knows.
'Blessed are the meek (not Alastair!) for they shall inherit the earth'. What SKS is doing doesn't seem to be working. Yet people seem to like the straight forward lack of obvious ego and unpretentious of Merkel. So Sir Keir had got the ingredients he's just presenting them in a gauche manner. Merkel might be the perfect template
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
Has to be distribution as well. It's been said before during this crisis that the NHS may not be perfect but it's custom built for this sort of thing. Someone (possibly @Foxy ?) was also sharing data the other night to the effect that the UK has a significantly better record for adult vaccination campaigns than any other country in Europe.
Even if you've not got a serious hesitancy problem (and issues of that kind with the Oxford jab appear to be widespread) then you still need the infrastructure in place to get bulk consignments from the point of delivery from the manufacturer into individual patients' arms.
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
Germany is very inefficient in administration. There is no central database, yet doctors are restricted from injecting in their surgeries, and injections have to be by doctors.
I think Italy and Spain are doing better, but having a centralised, government system like the NHS works a lot better.
Er, I don't think you can add first dose and second dose together to get 8%.
For some reason "total doses administered per 100 people" has become the standard for how progress is measured.
You could just as easily go for numbers per million, but I guess numbers per hundred probably came about because people are used to percentages. Except that the need to lance everybody twice makes the straightforward use of percentages awkward, of course.
Er, I don't think you can add first dose and second dose together to get 8%.
For some reason "total doses administered per 100 people" has become the standard for how progress is measured.
You could just as easily go for numbers per million, but I guess numbers per hundred probably came about because people are used to percentages. Except that the need to lance everybody twice makes the straightforward use of percentages awkward, of course.
That J&J is single dose also affects things. There's no perfect way.
But however you cut it, most of the EU states are failing right now.
Just keeping PB updated on the hospitalisation rate data that I've been working on. I had to change it to deaths because the data for hospitalisations was inconsistent with case level data, it tells the same story, however.
For basically the whole pandemic 40-60% of people aged 80+ that caught COVID died, since the the start of February that has fallen to just 10-15% and recently the rate has fallen to under 10% and it is still falling.
Extending that to the 70-79 age group the normal death rate was around 20-25% for the majority of the pandemic, peaking at around 40% during the second wave, I'm guessing due to overloaded hospitals. Now the death rate for that age group has fallen to under 10% consistently and recent data has that rate falling to under 5%.
With both groups I'd expect the second doses to push up the survival rate to well over 95%. This is also the most vulnerable groups with the least active immune systems, for younger cohorts I expect the death rate to be cut by 99% with just a single jab. I will keep PB updated on the progress of this when a large number of 60+ people have been vaccinated and the vaccines have had time to take effect. For everyone aged 50+ I expect the single dose to reduce deaths by ca. 97% within three weeks based on the publicly available data. Hopefully the upcoming real world trial data from PHE will confirm my findings in the next couple of weeks.
Edit - Just to summarise - vaccines work and if you're offered one you should take it immediately.
Quite a few stories of Tory tax rebellions tonight (Telly/FT).
Did the backbenchers expect spending close to half a trillion would come without a price tag?
Yes. At least, not one that should be paid whilst they are in parliament, even if that is decades (there may well be arguments for 'not now', but let's not kid ourselves, for most of these types 'not now' really means 'never', except in highly specific areas)
Er, I don't think you can add first dose and second dose together to get 8%.
For some reason "total doses administered per 100 people" has become the standard for how progress is measured.
This is an official release from the EU. Pretty naughty, as only 5% have any sort of protection whatsoever.
Oh, I don't disagree. But the Worldometer number is also doses administered per 100 adults, so while I think it's stupid (and increasingly misleading), it's not that the EU is that out of line with how other people are reporting.
The Jewish Marriage Council (JMC) has said that while young Jews from a strictly Orthodox background are not “forced” to marry, they can nevertheless feel “coerced”.
In its astonishing admission, the Hendon-based organisation appeared to be trying to justify the traditional Charedi shidduch system of families working together for their children to meet in arranged introductions.
“This is done with consent from both parties which is a requirement under Jewish law,” said the JMC. “While there may be instances whereby one might feel coerced, we have not come across any party feeling as if they have been forced.”
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
We had our massive wave of cases prior to the start of mass vaccination. That's 30k deaths or so. I hope they do not have a massive rise in cases whilst they have not yet been able to get mass vaccination going fully, though at the least they have more covered than we did at the start of our our second/third wave.
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
Has to be distribution as well. It's been said before during this crisis that the NHS may not be perfect but it's custom built for this sort of thing. Someone (possibly @Foxy ?) was also sharing data the other night to the effect that the UK has a significantly better record for adult vaccination campaigns than any other country in Europe.
Even if you've not got a serious hesitancy problem (and issues of that kind with the Oxford jab appear to be widespread) then you still need the infrastructure in place to get bulk consignments from the point of delivery from the manufacturer into individual patients' arms.
It's shocking that the EU has 20 million doses - that's enough for almost 7% of their adult population - sitting around unadministered. Assuming that the doses have been distributed to the constituent nations (which is not guaranteed of course), then we're moving on from the failure of the EU itself, to the failure of the French, Germans, Spanish, etc.
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
It's probably a subtler method of diverting blame - rollout has still been slow (albeit supply has been an issue for most of it), and if it is implied that that is down to mass refusals alone, it means the Commission and member states have nothing to answer for.
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
Has to be distribution as well. It's been said before during this crisis that the NHS may not be perfect but it's custom built for this sort of thing. Someone (possibly @Foxy ?) was also sharing data the other night to the effect that the UK has a significantly better record for adult vaccination campaigns than any other country in Europe.
Even if you've not got a serious hesitancy problem (and issues of that kind with the Oxford jab appear to be widespread) then you still need the infrastructure in place to get bulk consignments from the point of delivery from the manufacturer into individual patients' arms.
It's shocking that the EU has 20 million doses - that's enough for almost 7% of their adult population - sitting around unadministered. Assuming that the doses have been distributed to the constituent nations (which is not guaranteed of course), then we're moving on from the failure of the EU itself, to the failure of the French, Germans, Spanish, etc.
But most of those doses are quasi ineffective and or/ dangerous for the over 65s who are being jabbed, Merkel confirmed as much today.
There is no Moderna manufacturing anywhere in Europe yet. And when there is (from April), it will be in Switzerland, not the EU.
So, I'm not sure what she's on about.
The pilot line is up and running aiui, but it's low volume and in Switzerland which obviously isn't in the EU. The fill and finish for Moderna is done in Switzerland and Spain so maybe she's referring to the Spanish production.
Rolling back the power of unions has been a consistent benefit for the British people since the 80s. Tories don't get the thanks they deserve for it.
But we don't mind. We know we're doing good work.
Or alternatively the power of organised labour was probably the greatest force of progress in society in the century prior to 1979. And we can look at the change in the labour/capital division of income since then, and think that maybe you are stoking the fires of something very ugly.
She's also told us her team accidentally triggered article 16 of course. A more eloquent Boris, except Boris has listened to scientists and clamped down on his diversionary talk when Covid is the subject.
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
It's probably a subtler method of diverting blame - rollout has still been slow (albeit supply has been an issue for most of it), and if it is implied that that is down to mass refusals alone, it means the Commission and member states have nothing to answer for.
One theory is that AZ was only authorised in DE for under 65s, and they have not got the infra / admin in place for going now for a group lower in the risk hierarchy. That sounds convincing.
Quite a few stories of Tory tax rebellions tonight (Telly/FT).
Did the backbenchers expect spending close to half a trillion would come without a price tag?
Yes. At least, not one that should be paid whilst they are in parliament, even if that is decades (there may well be arguments for 'not now', but let's not kid ourselves, for most of these types 'not now' really means 'never', except in highly specific areas)
Sunak seems to be trying to rescue the tories' reputation for fiscal responsibility. I mean FFS. Talk about a lost cause.
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
We had our massive wave of cases prior to the start of mass vaccination. That's 30k deaths or so. I hope they do not have a massive rise in cases whilst they have not yet been able to get mass vaccination going fully, though at the least they have more covered than we did at the start of our our second/third wave.
They are - back of a fag packet - at least four-six weeks away from vaccinations having any effect, if the UK experience is anything to go by.
Italy is on 30,000 daily cases, France is on 25,000, Italy has relaxed lockdown, France never had one (in this wave). It doesn't look good.
I don't think they have any choice but to go for another precautionary lockdown now, and wait for the vaccines to kick in. And pray. Otherwise they end up like Czhechia - or the UK in early January
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
It's probably a subtler method of diverting blame - rollout has still been slow (albeit supply has been an issue for most of it), and if it is implied that that is down to mass refusals alone, it means the Commission and member states have nothing to answer for.
One theory is that AZ was only authorised in DE for under 65s, and they have not got the infra / admin in place for going now for a group lower in the risk hierarchy. That sounds convincing.
How do you know that? It's a vicious circle. They don't get covered, so we don't know what they are saying, which leads to them not having anything to contribute.
Usual story. Those in charge of the agenda (the government) have everything their way.
I wouldn't worry about the frequent "what's the point of the Lib Dems?" from some on here. It's part of the background noise - the Party doesn't have to justify its existence to Conservative activists.
Try asking them "what's the point of the Conservative Party?".
Quite lately, and in the medium term, it has been about winning power and empowering individuals over vested interests.
How can you say that, when all the vested interests are Johnson, his cronies and his financial backers?
At some stage people will see through all this Conservative spin for the nonsense it is.
And grabbing power is not an end in itself. What do they want power for?
To make money?
To keep Labour out. And I think the reverse is probably also largely true.
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
The tweet was discussing the vaccine rollout. Unless you think that has been a success story?
No its been a complete failure.
Not a disaster.
Semantics - disaster does not align to some universally agreed standard, so it is just opinion one way or another if the failure meets that standard.
Also, sometimes we can see disasters coming before they arrive.
By disaster I thought it was meant that already high deaths would be skyrocketing because millions of Europeans are unprotected by vaccinations.
Imagine my surprise, then, when it transpires deaths are the same (France) or in Spain's case far, far lower than ours.
There has been some questioning of Spain's death stats. As, indeed, there has been of almost every country, from the UK to New York to Mexico to SA, Russia and China
Any opinion on Covid based on official death stats needs to be heavily caveatted, for about a year. When we will know the truth (unless the plague persists into 4th and 5th waves)
Also, and FWIW, Spain overtook the UK in deaths today: 345 v 323. Spain is a significantly smaller country, by population
In Spain AZN is being given to health worker under 55. I had a blood test on Wednesday and the nurse told me he'd been jabbed. Have not heard tales of refusals. However, a number of Spanish friends on FB are very vaccine sceptic [ of all brands] - people who in other respects seem quite intelligent.
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
We had our massive wave of cases prior to the start of mass vaccination. That's 30k deaths or so. I hope they do not have a massive rise in cases whilst they have not yet been able to get mass vaccination going fully, though at the least they have more covered than we did at the start of our our second/third wave.
They are - back of a fag packet - at least four-six weeks away from vaccinations having any effect, if the UK experience is anything to go by.
Italy is on 30,000 daily cases, France is on 25,000, Italy has relaxed lockdown, France never had one (in this wave). It doesn't look good.
I don't think they have any choice but to go for another precautionary lockdown now, and wait for the vaccines to kick in. And pray. Otherwise they end up like Czhechia - or the UK in early January
The UK Government threw in the towel and went into lockdown in early January. It doesn't look like there's going to be any significant easing beyond schools until at least 12 April (gyms, shops, beauty, al fresco dining.) That's three full months.
If some of these countries are unlucky and/or insufficiently cautious then they could easily still be in lockdown when, pray God, we dump nearly all the restrictions and re-open nightclubs in late June.*
What effect this may have on public opinion just on the other side of the Channel can only be guessed at.
* For fear of tempting fate, yes, I know, novel variants etc. - it could all still go to shit - but I'm trying to be optimistic at the moment.
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
The tweet was discussing the vaccine rollout. Unless you think that has been a success story?
No its been a complete failure.
Not a disaster.
Semantics - disaster does not align to some universally agreed standard, so it is just opinion one way or another if the failure meets that standard.
Also, sometimes we can see disasters coming before they arrive.
"Now you're talking semantics. What if I told you insane was working fifty hours a week in some office for fifty years... at the end of which they tell you to piss off? Ending up in some retirement village... hoping to die before suffering the indignity of trying to make it to the toilet on time. Wouldn't you consider that to be insane?"
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
We had our massive wave of cases prior to the start of mass vaccination. That's 30k deaths or so. I hope they do not have a massive rise in cases whilst they have not yet been able to get mass vaccination going fully, though at the least they have more covered than we did at the start of our our second/third wave.
They are - back of a fag packet - at least four-six weeks away from vaccinations having any effect, if the UK experience is anything to go by.
Italy is on 30,000 daily cases, France is on 25,000, Italy has relaxed lockdown, France never had one (in this wave). It doesn't look good.
I don't think they have any choice but to go for another precautionary lockdown now, and wait for the vaccines to kick in. And pray. Otherwise they end up like Czhechia - or the UK in early January
The UK Government threw in the towel and went into lockdown in early January. It doesn't look like there's going to be any significant easing beyond schools until at least 12 April (gyms, shops, beauty, al fresco dining.) That's three full months.
If some of these countries are unlucky and/or insufficiently cautious then they could easily still be in lockdown when, pray God, we dump nearly all the restrictions and re-open nightclubs in late June.*
What effect this may have on public opinion just on the other side of the Channel can only be guessed at.
* For fear of tempting fate, yes, I know, novel variants etc. - it could all still go to shit - but I'm trying to be optimistic at the moment.
They have Kentish Covid, and the even worse Safferbug in Moselle, Koln, Tirol, etc
We in the UK have seen what this variant does. They must surely lockdown
In Spain AZN is being given to health worker under 55. I had a blood test on Wednesday and the nurse told me he'd been jabbed. Have not heard tales of refusals. However, a number of Spanish friends on FB are very vaccine sceptic [ of all brands] - people who in other respects seem quite intelligent.
In Spain AZN is being given to health worker under 55. I had a blood test on Wednesday and the nurse told me he'd been jabbed. Have not heard tales of refusals. However, a number of Spanish friends on FB are very vaccine sceptic [ of all brands] - people who in other respects seem quite intelligent.
Spanish deaths yesterday were 40.
Maybe they don't see the urgency.
If worldometer is right they have cases and deaths moving in the right direction, but a lot more than 40. ANd given of big european nations only and we and Italy have currently done worse, Spain should see the urgency.
Liked purely for good use of one of my favourite words - serendipitously.
Tragically, I find it hard to work into everyday communication, at least extemporaneously.
*knocked off another favourite there though.
When I was a kid our neighbour and good friend had a cat called "Serendipity". Does anyone know an adjective and an adverb for "topiary"? topiarity? topiaryisly? Topiaryishness?
Another query: what does A. Wakefield think about the jab??
In Spain AZN is being given to health worker under 55. I had a blood test on Wednesday and the nurse told me he'd been jabbed. Have not heard tales of refusals. However, a number of Spanish friends on FB are very vaccine sceptic [ of all brands] - people who in other respects seem quite intelligent.
In Spain AZN is being given to health worker under 55. I had a blood test on Wednesday and the nurse told me he'd been jabbed. Have not heard tales of refusals. However, a number of Spanish friends on FB are very vaccine sceptic [ of all brands] - people who in other respects seem quite intelligent.
Spanish deaths yesterday were 40.
Maybe they don't see the urgency.
That's a date of death figure which is updated for two weeks. By reporting date 345 deaths were added.
In Spain AZN is being given to health worker under 55. I had a blood test on Wednesday and the nurse told me he'd been jabbed. Have not heard tales of refusals. However, a number of Spanish friends on FB are very vaccine sceptic [ of all brands] - people who in other respects seem quite intelligent.
Some of the most enthusiastic buy-to-lettors I know are leftwing. Wasn't Tyson, firebrand lefty ex of this parish, thus remunerated?
Greed is not a rightwing *thing*. It is a human thing. You'd be amazed how many lefties lose ALL their principles the moment a large amount of money hoves into view.
English Toryism is composed of many strands, from Scruton-esque thoughtful patriotism to libertarian Borisovian hedonism, with a large dash of boring nanny state be-careful TMayism. Dismissing them all as rentiers is pitiful. It's like looking at a garden and saying "it's just a load of things growing".
It would, moreover, be like looking at the history of Labour/leftwingery in the UK and saying "it's just envious workers". I know that the leftwing tradition in Britain is much richer and nobler than that, from the Putney Debates to the Levellers to Kier Hardie and on - the political voice of the common people in Britain has done wonderful things, but has also been warped and hijacked to do bad things.
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
We had our massive wave of cases prior to the start of mass vaccination. That's 30k deaths or so. I hope they do not have a massive rise in cases whilst they have not yet been able to get mass vaccination going fully, though at the least they have more covered than we did at the start of our our second/third wave.
They are - back of a fag packet - at least four-six weeks away from vaccinations having any effect, if the UK experience is anything to go by.
Italy is on 30,000 daily cases, France is on 25,000, Italy has relaxed lockdown, France never had one (in this wave). It doesn't look good.
I don't think they have any choice but to go for another precautionary lockdown now, and wait for the vaccines to kick in. And pray. Otherwise they end up like Czhechia - or the UK in early January
The UK Government threw in the towel and went into lockdown in early January. It doesn't look like there's going to be any significant easing beyond schools until at least 12 April (gyms, shops, beauty, al fresco dining.) That's three full months.
If some of these countries are unlucky and/or insufficiently cautious then they could easily still be in lockdown when, pray God, we dump nearly all the restrictions and re-open nightclubs in late June.*
What effect this may have on public opinion just on the other side of the Channel can only be guessed at.
* For fear of tempting fate, yes, I know, novel variants etc. - it could all still go to shit - but I'm trying to be optimistic at the moment.
They have Kentish Covid, and the even worse Safferbug in Moselle, Koln, Tirol, etc
We in the UK have seen what this variant does. They must surely lockdown
In France more than half the cases are Thanet variant of Covid.
In Spain AZN is being given to health worker under 55. I had a blood test on Wednesday and the nurse told me he'd been jabbed. Have not heard tales of refusals. However, a number of Spanish friends on FB are very vaccine sceptic [ of all brands] - people who in other respects seem quite intelligent.
Spanish deaths yesterday were 40.
Maybe they don't see the urgency.
That's a date of death figure which is updated for two weeks. By reporting date 345 deaths were added.
Some of the most enthusiastic buy-to-lettors I know are leftwing. Wasn't Tyson, firebrand lefty ex of this parish, thus remunerated?
Greed is not a rightwing *thing*. It is a human thing. You'd be amazed how many lefties lose ALL their principles the moment a large amount of money hoves into view.
English Toryism is composed of many strands, from Scruton-esque thoughtful patriotism to libertarian Borisovian hedonism, with a large dash of boring nanny state be-careful TMayism. Dismissing them all as rentiers is pitiful. It's like looking at a garden and saying "it's just a load of things growing".
It would, moreover, be like looking at the history of Labour/leftwingery in the UK and saying "it's just envious workers". I know that the leftwing tradition in Britain is much richer and nobler than that, from the Putney Debates to the Levellers to Kier Hardie and on - the political voice of the common people in Britain has done wonderful things, but has also been warped and hijacked to do bad things.
Much like their patriotic rightwing twin.
Isn't that just a fancy way of saying that with parties that get 35-40% in the polls, the idea for either Labour or the Tories that their voters and members are all ideologues of the same type is completely bonkers, even if certain strands of thinking predominate?
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
We had our massive wave of cases prior to the start of mass vaccination. That's 30k deaths or so. I hope they do not have a massive rise in cases whilst they have not yet been able to get mass vaccination going fully, though at the least they have more covered than we did at the start of our our second/third wave.
They are - back of a fag packet - at least four-six weeks away from vaccinations having any effect, if the UK experience is anything to go by.
Italy is on 30,000 daily cases, France is on 25,000, Italy has relaxed lockdown, France never had one (in this wave). It doesn't look good.
I don't think they have any choice but to go for another precautionary lockdown now, and wait for the vaccines to kick in. And pray. Otherwise they end up like Czhechia - or the UK in early January
The UK Government threw in the towel and went into lockdown in early January. It doesn't look like there's going to be any significant easing beyond schools until at least 12 April (gyms, shops, beauty, al fresco dining.) That's three full months.
If some of these countries are unlucky and/or insufficiently cautious then they could easily still be in lockdown when, pray God, we dump nearly all the restrictions and re-open nightclubs in late June.*
What effect this may have on public opinion just on the other side of the Channel can only be guessed at.
* For fear of tempting fate, yes, I know, novel variants etc. - it could all still go to shit - but I'm trying to be optimistic at the moment.
They have Kentish Covid, and the even worse Safferbug in Moselle, Koln, Tirol, etc
We in the UK have seen what this variant does. They must surely lockdown
In France more than half the cases are Thanet variant of Covid.
In Spain AZN is being given to health worker under 55. I had a blood test on Wednesday and the nurse told me he'd been jabbed. Have not heard tales of refusals. However, a number of Spanish friends on FB are very vaccine sceptic [ of all brands] - people who in other respects seem quite intelligent.
Spanish deaths yesterday were 40.
Maybe they don't see the urgency.
That's a date of death figure which is updated for two weeks. By reporting date 345 deaths were added.
Apols
It happens, no big deal. What's worrying about European numbers is that they are clearly at the start of another wave and they haven't vaccinated enough people to slow it down. That's inevitably going to result in more lockdowns and stricter rules on movement. I just hope we've done enough to avoid the same eventuality and we can keep our June 21st march to freedom.
Via @Kantar_UKI , 18-22 Feb. Changes w/ 21-25 Jan.
SKS fans please explain
DBMIVN (Don't blame me I voted Nandy)
You are becoming as tiresome as the Boris rampers, picking and choosing your polls. I don't recall you commenting on yesterday's 2 point margin "outlier".
manic keith preachers behind by between 2 or 7% when any other leader was going to be "ahead by 20%"
Some of the most enthusiastic buy-to-lettors I know are leftwing. Wasn't Tyson, firebrand lefty ex of this parish, thus remunerated?
Greed is not a rightwing *thing*. It is a human thing. You'd be amazed how many lefties lose ALL their principles the moment a large amount of money hoves into view.
English Toryism is composed of many strands, from Scruton-esque thoughtful patriotism to libertarian Borisovian hedonism, with a large dash of boring nanny state be-careful TMayism. Dismissing them all as rentiers is pitiful. It's like looking at a garden and saying "it's just a load of things growing".
It would, moreover, be like looking at the history of Labour/leftwingery in the UK and saying "it's just envious workers". I know that the leftwing tradition in Britain is much richer and nobler than that, from the Putney Debates to the Levellers to Kier Hardie and on - the political voice of the common people in Britain has done wonderful things, but has also been warped and hijacked to do bad things.
Much like their patriotic rightwing twin.
Isn't that just a fancy way of saying that with parties that get 35-40% in the polls, the idea for either Labour or the Tories that their voters and members are all ideologues of the same type is completely bonkers, even if certain strands of thinking predominate?
Yeah, but I quite like fancy ways of saying things.
Confession: I am a frustrated and thwarted writer reduced to flint-knapping
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
We had our massive wave of cases prior to the start of mass vaccination. That's 30k deaths or so. I hope they do not have a massive rise in cases whilst they have not yet been able to get mass vaccination going fully, though at the least they have more covered than we did at the start of our our second/third wave.
They are - back of a fag packet - at least four-six weeks away from vaccinations having any effect, if the UK experience is anything to go by.
Italy is on 30,000 daily cases, France is on 25,000, Italy has relaxed lockdown, France never had one (in this wave). It doesn't look good.
I don't think they have any choice but to go for another precautionary lockdown now, and wait for the vaccines to kick in. And pray. Otherwise they end up like Czhechia - or the UK in early January
Things don’t sound very relaxed in Italy. The equivalent of a journey, to pick one at random, from London to South Wales, would be illegal merely as a journey in Italy, before you get onto allowed activities. And there’s an effective curfew.
Odd, because there are plenty more people on the continent eager ;if not desperate) for the vaccine than there is supply, even with a significant proportion of people refusing. There is more to this story than mass refusals.
It's probably a subtler method of diverting blame - rollout has still been slow (albeit supply has been an issue for most of it), and if it is implied that that is down to mass refusals alone, it means the Commission and member states have nothing to answer for.
One theory is that AZ was only authorised in DE for under 65s, and they have not got the infra / admin in place for going now for a group lower in the risk hierarchy. That sounds convincing.
This looks rather sinister to me. Does it mean the Commission reserve the right to demand sight of AZ's contracts with other parties? And to be judge and jury when it comes to blocking exports?
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
We had our massive wave of cases prior to the start of mass vaccination. That's 30k deaths or so. I hope they do not have a massive rise in cases whilst they have not yet been able to get mass vaccination going fully, though at the least they have more covered than we did at the start of our our second/third wave.
They are - back of a fag packet - at least four-six weeks away from vaccinations having any effect, if the UK experience is anything to go by.
Italy is on 30,000 daily cases, France is on 25,000, Italy has relaxed lockdown, France never had one (in this wave). It doesn't look good.
I don't think they have any choice but to go for another precautionary lockdown now, and wait for the vaccines to kick in. And pray. Otherwise they end up like Czhechia - or the UK in early January
Things don’t sound very relaxed in Italy. The equivalent of a journey, to pick one at random, from London to South Wales, would be illegal merely as a journey in Italy, before you get onto allowed activities. And there’s an effective curfew.
We all know indoors transmission is THE way to get it. Italy has a more benign climate than the UK but in Feb/March you still want to eat or drink indoors in much of the country, especially the more populous north. Good luck to them, but I worry. I love Italy.
More Europe. This is why we left though so good luck to them on the integration project. The dig at bilateral agreements was obviously aimed at the UK as well. They really just can't seem to let it go.
Interesting that they 'cannot allow vaccine nationalism' when the Commission has engaged in it (and accused others of), as well as defending itself by pointing out that nations could go outside their schemes and do things themselves, that is engage in vaccine nationalism if they wanted. Do the Council and Commission talk?
After the gargantuan scale of this screw-up we may finally have reached the limits of "More Europe" as an answer to every problem.
Then again, people said the same kind of thing when the Eurozone crisis hit.
There'll be some form of Health Union within a few years, won't there?
At least some of those calling for a Health Union are doing so because they acknowledge there was a problem, a la Guy Verhofstadt. People might diagree with his solution, but at least that position doesn't deny a problem.
This looks rather sinister to me. Does it mean the Commission reserve the right to demand sight of AZ's contracts with other parties? And to be judge and jury when it comes to blocking exports?
The EU/AZ contract (previously published, redacted, by an angry Brussels) was recently unearthed by RAI, the Italian state broadcaster, and published in full, UNredacted. The bits redacted by the EU Commission specifically say "the EU has no right to take legal action in the event of AZ failing to deliver".
In Spain AZN is being given to health worker under 55. I had a blood test on Wednesday and the nurse told me he'd been jabbed. Have not heard tales of refusals. However, a number of Spanish friends on FB are very vaccine sceptic [ of all brands] - people who in other respects seem quite intelligent.
Spanish deaths yesterday were 40.
Maybe they don't see the urgency.
Wrong - there were 58 deaths recorded in Andalucía alone. There is huge urgency and fears that another wave will hit around Easter time.
Comments
There is no party to vote for supporting financial prudence, just different magic money forests.
Either that or they were planning to recoup the losses by doing various ghastly things to the poor and the unemployed. Who can say?
But we don't mind. We know we're doing good work.
At some stage people will see through all this Conservative spin for the nonsense it is.
And grabbing power is not an end in itself. What do they want power for?
Few and far between these days, it seems.
The Jewish Marriage Council (JMC) has said that while young Jews from a strictly Orthodox background are not “forced” to marry, they can nevertheless feel “coerced”.
In its astonishing admission, the Hendon-based organisation appeared to be trying to justify the traditional Charedi shidduch system of families working together for their children to meet in arranged introductions.
“This is done with consent from both parties which is a requirement under Jewish law,” said the JMC. “While there may be instances whereby one might feel coerced, we have not come across any party feeling as if they have been forced.”
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/charedim-not-forced-but-can-be-coerced-into-marriage-jewish-group-says/
A coalition of charities campaigning to toughen alcohol laws in the UK have penned an open letter calling for public Purim celebrations to be outlawed because they “promote excessive drinking”.
Alcoholism Care & Treatment (ACT), the Campaign for Alcohol Limits (CAL), and the nationwide Public Intoxication Support Team (PIST) came together to urge London boroughs with large Jewish populations to put a stop to Purim partying, even after the pandemic.
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/anti-alcohol-charities-call-last-orders-on-purim-booze-ups/
An alcohol support team called PIST.
Brilliant.
Davey is achieving nothing and being seen to be achieving nothing.
Continuing unfolding disaster on the continent.
We need clarity.
Even if you've not got a serious hesitancy problem (and issues of that kind with the Oxford jab appear to be widespread) then you still need the infrastructure in place to get bulk consignments from the point of delivery from the manufacturer into individual patients' arms.
The records show that France deaths are roughly comparable to UK ones.
Spain deaths seem to be far, far lower, unless they are recording them wrong.
Where's the disaster?
I think Italy and Spain are doing better, but having a centralised, government system like the NHS works a lot better.
But however you cut it, most of the EU states are failing right now.
*thud*
For basically the whole pandemic 40-60% of people aged 80+ that caught COVID died, since the the start of February that has fallen to just 10-15% and recently the rate has fallen to under 10% and it is still falling.
Extending that to the 70-79 age group the normal death rate was around 20-25% for the majority of the pandemic, peaking at around 40% during the second wave, I'm guessing due to overloaded hospitals. Now the death rate for that age group has fallen to under 10% consistently and recent data has that rate falling to under 5%.
With both groups I'd expect the second doses to push up the survival rate to well over 95%. This is also the most vulnerable groups with the least active immune systems, for younger cohorts I expect the death rate to be cut by 99% with just a single jab. I will keep PB updated on the progress of this when a large number of 60+ people have been vaccinated and the vaccines have had time to take effect. For everyone aged 50+ I expect the single dose to reduce deaths by ca. 97% within three weeks based on the publicly available data. Hopefully the upcoming real world trial data from PHE will confirm my findings in the next couple of weeks.
Edit - Just to summarise - vaccines work and if you're offered one you should take it immediately.
Not a disaster.
So, I'm not sure what she's on about.
Also, sometimes we can see disasters coming before they arrive.
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1364970993479991296
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1364970995828809741
Jeez.
Italy is on 30,000 daily cases, France is on 25,000, Italy has relaxed lockdown, France never had one (in this wave). It doesn't look good.
I don't think they have any choice but to go for another precautionary lockdown now, and wait for the vaccines to kick in. And pray. Otherwise they end up like Czhechia - or the UK in early January
In the short term: to keep the gravy coming.
In the longer term: to protect the rentier class.
Everything else is secondary, although they'd fight pretty hard to keep the monarchy (as the shining bastion of the rentier class).
Sad
Imagine my surprise, then, when it transpires deaths are the same (France) or in Spain's case far, far lower than ours.
And I think the reverse is probably also largely true.
https://twitter.com/cjfdillow/status/1364856451781582850?s=21
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-07-31/the-real-covid-19-death-toll-in-spain-at-least-44868.html
Any opinion on Covid based on official death stats needs to be heavily caveatted, for about a year. When we will know the truth (unless the plague persists into 4th and 5th waves)
Also, and FWIW, Spain overtook the UK in deaths today: 345 v 323. Spain is a significantly smaller country, by population
If some of these countries are unlucky and/or insufficiently cautious then they could easily still be in lockdown when, pray God, we dump nearly all the restrictions and re-open nightclubs in late June.*
What effect this may have on public opinion just on the other side of the Channel can only be guessed at.
* For fear of tempting fate, yes, I know, novel variants etc. - it could all still go to shit - but I'm trying to be optimistic at the moment.
Tragically, I find it hard to work into everyday communication, at least extemporaneously.
*knocked off another favourite there though.
We in the UK have seen what this variant does. They must surely lockdown
Maybe they don't see the urgency.
Does anyone know an adjective and an adverb for "topiary"? topiarity? topiaryisly? Topiaryishness?
Another query: what does A. Wakefield think about the jab??
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
Greed is not a rightwing *thing*. It is a human thing. You'd be amazed how many lefties lose ALL their principles the moment a large amount of money hoves into view.
English Toryism is composed of many strands, from Scruton-esque thoughtful patriotism to libertarian Borisovian hedonism, with a large dash of boring nanny state be-careful TMayism. Dismissing them all as rentiers is pitiful. It's like looking at a garden and saying "it's just a load of things growing".
It would, moreover, be like looking at the history of Labour/leftwingery in the UK and saying "it's just envious workers". I know that the leftwing tradition in Britain is much richer and nobler than that, from the Putney Debates to the Levellers to Kier Hardie and on - the political voice of the common people in Britain has done wonderful things, but has also been warped and hijacked to do bad things.
Much like their patriotic rightwing twin.
Confession: I am a frustrated and thwarted writer reduced to flint-knapping
Been following him since about 2008.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210201-restaurants-and-museums-reopen-as-italy-relaxes-coronavirus-curbs
We all know indoors transmission is THE way to get it. Italy has a more benign climate than the UK but in Feb/March you still want to eat or drink indoors in much of the country, especially the more populous north. Good luck to them, but I worry. I love Italy.
Then again, people said the same kind of thing when the Eurozone crisis hit.
There'll be some form of Health Union within a few years, won't there?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1365026068852334595?s=21
Incroyable, but true