You can get evens that Biden’s approval will still be in the 50-54.9 range after 100 days – politica

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You can get evens that Biden’s approval will still be in the 50-54.9 range after 100 days – politicalbetting.com

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DavidL

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

MarqueeMark

FPT MattW, there has been a 7.5% swing in net favorables between Boris and Nicola since the last poll. OK, his previous ratings were worse than scrofula, but with Ross polling much better too, it might mean the Tories are best placed to benefit from further internal SNP trauma between now and May.

Especially with Starmer going backwards too.

Theuniondivvie

Sturgeonesque..

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

India were bowled out for 36 this year.

kle4

If everyone can just get half their averages we can get to a near 100 lead, come on!

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, from Philip Sim's twitter account.

A man has been jailed for six months after he admitted breaching the contempt order on the Alex Salmond trial. Lady Dorrian said Clive Thomson, 52, had committed a "deliberate and indeed planned contempt of court" by naming complainers from the trial on social media.

Lady Dorrian said Thomson knew he was breaching the order and had "given thought about how to get away with it" - he "went as far as to seek advice on Twitter".

Another one of those things I didn't think I'd end up having to say - DO NOT TAKE LEGAL ADVICE FROM RANDOMS ON TWITTER

This all underlines that courts do not screw around with this stuff. Defence argued Thomson is the breadwinner for his family and carer for his wife, who is shielding - but Lady Dorrian said that "for such a premeditated contempt" there is "no alternative to a custodial sentence"

MarqueeMark

I don't think even south Asian bookies have the balls to pull off an England win from here....

DavidL

FPT
Andy_JS said:
» show previous quotes
I dont understand this Scottish political/legal controversy at all. Its too complicated.
It's not that complicated.

Salmond was stirring up trouble for Sturgeon because a significant part of the SNP didn't believe she was committed to a second referendum.
Allegations of sexual misbehavior on the part of Salmond came to the attention of the Scottish government.
There was no code for dealing with former ministers so the SG made one up, retrospectively.
They also got someone who had spoken to the complainers to assess the complaints.
A judicial review was lodged challenging the competency of that.
Independent counsel told the SG their position was unstateable but the SG soldiered on until counsel threatened to withdraw.
£500k of legal expenses were paid to Salmond's lawyers.
Within days a prosecution was announced and eventually 9 complainers "came forward" with or without a little encouragement.
Salmond was acquitted of all charges.
An inquiry as to why the SG wasted £500k (plus their own costs) in respect of the judicial review has morphed into an inquiry about whether Sturgeon lied when she reported the complaints to Parliament.
She told Parliament that the first she was aware of the charges was at a meeting in her house on 2nd April.
She now accepts that's not true and she knew the reason for that meeting following a discussion on 29th March.
She claims to have "forgotten" about a meeting where she was told that her mentor of 30 years was facing criminal charges for sexual misconduct.
The point is important because she should not have been meeting Salmond at all except in a First Minister capacity with civil servants present. She claims that she thought that this was a "party meeting." This is not consistent with prior knowledge.
Salmond has lodged detailed statements with the committee investigating this matter with paper vouching in part.
Crown Office have complained that this is a breach of the contempt of court order arising from the trial to protect the identity of the 9. Its really not obvious why.
If she is found to have lied the Ministerial code requires her to resign.

And not a banana in sight.

Andy_JS

A cliche but every run is like gold dust.

Selebian

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, from Philip Sim's twitter account.

A man has been jailed for six months after he admitted breaching the contempt order on the Alex Salmond trial. Lady Dorrian said Clive Thomson, 52, had committed a "deliberate and indeed planned contempt of court" by naming complainers from the trial on social media.

Lady Dorrian said Thomson knew he was breaching the order and had "given thought about how to get away with it" - he "went as far as to seek advice on Twitter".

Another one of those things I didn't think I'd end up having to say - DO NOT TAKE LEGAL ADVICE FROM RANDOMS ON TWITTER

This all underlines that courts do not screw around with this stuff. Defence argued Thomson is the breadwinner for his family and carer for his wife, who is shielding - but Lady Dorrian said that "for such a premeditated contempt" there is "no alternative to a custodial sentence"

Does anyone else think DeLorean (and, by extension, Back to the Future) every time Lady Dorrian is mentioned?

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, from Philip Sim's twitter account.

A man has been jailed for six months after he admitted breaching the contempt order on the Alex Salmond trial. Lady Dorrian said Clive Thomson, 52, had committed a "deliberate and indeed planned contempt of court" by naming complainers from the trial on social media.

Lady Dorrian said Thomson knew he was breaching the order and had "given thought about how to get away with it" - he "went as far as to seek advice on Twitter".

Another one of those things I didn't think I'd end up having to say - DO NOT TAKE LEGAL ADVICE FROM RANDOMS ON TWITTER

This all underlines that courts do not screw around with this stuff. Defence argued Thomson is the breadwinner for his family and carer for his wife, who is shielding - but Lady Dorrian said that "for such a premeditated contempt" there is "no alternative to a custodial sentence"

But he actually named them which is a clear contempt of court. What happens in the Craig Murray trial who reported what others were reporting from the court by twitter will be much more interesting and test the limits of the jigsaw identification rule. Its very unusual for the decision in a criminal case to take as long to be determined as that one has been already.

CarlottaVance

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

Stocky

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

HYUFD

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

Looks to be a very high LD and Green and low Labour vote compared to the latest Comres conducted over about the same period

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364603830629974016?s=20

DavidL

Andy_JS said:

A cliche but every run is like gold dust.

Nah, they would need another 80 or so to make this interesting.

MarqueeMark

DavidL said:

FPT
Andy_JS said:
» show previous quotes
I dont understand this Scottish political/legal controversy at all. Its too complicated.
It's not that complicated.

Salmond was stirring up trouble for Sturgeon because a significant part of the SNP didn't believe she was committed to a second referendum.
Allegations of sexual misbehavior on the part of Salmond came to the attention of the Scottish government.
There was no code for dealing with former ministers so the SG made one up, retrospectively.
They also got someone who had spoken to the complainers to assess the complaints.
A judicial review was lodged challenging the competency of that.
Independent counsel told the SG their position was unstateable but the SG soldiered on until counsel threatened to withdraw.
£500k of legal expenses were paid to Salmond's lawyers.
Within days a prosecution was announced and eventually 9 complainers "came forward" with or without a little encouragement.
Salmond was acquitted of all charges.
An inquiry as to why the SG wasted £500k (plus their own costs) in respect of the judicial review has morphed into an inquiry about whether Sturgeon lied when she reported the complaints to Parliament.
She told Parliament that the first she was aware of the charges was at a meeting in her house on 2nd April.
She now accepts that's not true and she knew the reason for that meeting following a discussion on 29th March.
She claims to have "forgotten" about a meeting where she was told that her mentor of 30 years was facing criminal charges for sexual misconduct.
The point is important because she should not have been meeting Salmond at all except in a First Minister capacity with civil servants present. She claims that she thought that this was a "party meeting." This is not consistent with prior knowledge.
Salmond has lodged detailed statements with the committee investigating this matter with paper vouching in part.
Crown Office have complained that this is a breach of the contempt of court order arising from the trial to protect the identity of the 9. Its really not obvious why.
If she is found to have lied the Ministerial code requires her to resign.

And not a banana in sight.

The opening to Soap was less convoluted. Even when it had alien abduction.

TheScreamingEagles

Pope is fallible.

MikeSmithson

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

CarlottaVance

When asked if the UK should apply for EU membership if the general economic situation is much worse in the UK than the EU in five years’ time, 27% (-2) said yes, 17% (+5) said maybe and 33% (+3) said no.

https://www.kantar.com/uki/inspiration/society/Majority-of-Britons-support-vaccine-passports-for-travel?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

Oh dear, Sir Keir.

Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......

Nigel_Foremain

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever Eng;and's opponent is?

Some Scots always will. I find myself returning the favour and generally have more laughs than they do.

algarkirk

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

FPT
Andy_JS said:
» show previous quotes
I dont understand this Scottish political/legal controversy at all. Its too complicated.
It's not that complicated.

Salmond was stirring up trouble for Sturgeon because a significant part of the SNP didn't believe she was committed to a second referendum.
Allegations of sexual misbehavior on the part of Salmond came to the attention of the Scottish government.
There was no code for dealing with former ministers so the SG made one up, retrospectively.
They also got someone who had spoken to the complainers to assess the complaints.
A judicial review was lodged challenging the competency of that.
Independent counsel told the SG their position was unstateable but the SG soldiered on until counsel threatened to withdraw.
£500k of legal expenses were paid to Salmond's lawyers.
Within days a prosecution was announced and eventually 9 complainers "came forward" with or without a little encouragement.
Salmond was acquitted of all charges.
An inquiry as to why the SG wasted £500k (plus their own costs) in respect of the judicial review has morphed into an inquiry about whether Sturgeon lied when she reported the complaints to Parliament.
She told Parliament that the first she was aware of the charges was at a meeting in her house on 2nd April.
She now accepts that's not true and she knew the reason for that meeting following a discussion on 29th March.
She claims to have "forgotten" about a meeting where she was told that her mentor of 30 years was facing criminal charges for sexual misconduct.
The point is important because she should not have been meeting Salmond at all except in a First Minister capacity with civil servants present. She claims that she thought that this was a "party meeting." This is not consistent with prior knowledge.
Salmond has lodged detailed statements with the committee investigating this matter with paper vouching in part.
Crown Office have complained that this is a breach of the contempt of court order arising from the trial to protect the identity of the 9. Its really not obvious why.
If she is found to have lied the Ministerial code requires her to resign.

And not a banana in sight.

The opening to Soap was less convoluted. Even when it had alien abduction.

People don't do complexity, and governance would grind to a halt if they did, but they spot smoking guns and the smell of rotting stuff.

CarlottaVance

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

Oh dear, Sir Keir.

Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......

It certainly won't steady the nerves......

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914705542881280?s=20

Stocky

DavidL said:

FPT
Andy_JS said:
» show previous quotes
I dont understand this Scottish political/legal controversy at all. Its too complicated.
It's not that complicated.

Salmond was stirring up trouble for Sturgeon because a significant part of the SNP didn't believe she was committed to a second referendum.
Allegations of sexual misbehavior on the part of Salmond came to the attention of the Scottish government.
There was no code for dealing with former ministers so the SG made one up, retrospectively.
They also got someone who had spoken to the complainers to assess the complaints.
A judicial review was lodged challenging the competency of that.
Independent counsel told the SG their position was unstateable but the SG soldiered on until counsel threatened to withdraw.
£500k of legal expenses were paid to Salmond's lawyers.
Within days a prosecution was announced and eventually 9 complainers "came forward" with or without a little encouragement.
Salmond was acquitted of all charges.
An inquiry as to why the SG wasted £500k (plus their own costs) in respect of the judicial review has morphed into an inquiry about whether Sturgeon lied when she reported the complaints to Parliament.
She told Parliament that the first she was aware of the charges was at a meeting in her house on 2nd April.
She now accepts that's not true and she knew the reason for that meeting following a discussion on 29th March.
She claims to have "forgotten" about a meeting where she was told that her mentor of 30 years was facing criminal charges for sexual misconduct.
The point is important because she should not have been meeting Salmond at all except in a First Minister capacity with civil servants present. She claims that she thought that this was a "party meeting." This is not consistent with prior knowledge.
Salmond has lodged detailed statements with the committee investigating this matter with paper vouching in part.
Crown Office have complained that this is a breach of the contempt of court order arising from the trial to protect the identity of the 9. Its really not obvious why.
If she is found to have lied the Ministerial code requires her to resign.

And not a banana in sight.

Thanks for that.

My completely amateur and cynical precis of the saga goes as follows:

Sturgeon decided to act in the interests of her party rather than to uphold justice. So she threw Salmond under the bus and hoped it would all go away. Salmond is furious, vengeful and is biting her in the ass.

I`m rooting for Salmond.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1364915935107305472?s=20

rottenborough

Ch4 win the cricket rights and end up with a 2 day game?

TheScreamingEagles

rottenborough said:

Ch4 win the cricket rights and end up with a 2 day game?

They had the last England two day test, so it is fitting.

Andy_JS

Has a match ever been fully completed in 2 days before?

TheScreamingEagles

Andy_JS said:

Has a match ever been fully completed in 2 days before?

Yes.

England's last 2 day test.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/west-indies-tour-of-england-and-scotland-2000-61879/england-vs-west-indies-4th-test-63891/full-scorecard

This match in 1995 was completed in under two days worth of cricket but went into day three 3 because of bad light/over rate.

This match in 2018 ended on day 3 despite day 1 being a complete wash out.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/ind-in-eng-2018-1119528/england-vs-india-2nd-test-1119550/full-scorecard

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

Worth noting the changes on that poll over the actuals when the last sets of locals were contested. If that poll is anything like the actual result in May, it's going to be an interesting night. And following days.

2016:

Labour -2
Conservative +10
LibDems -4

2017:

Labour -6
Cons +2
LibDems -7

tlg86

Presumably Leach and Root will open the bowling for England.

NerysHughes

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

Oh dear, Sir Keir.

Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......

He is just too dull and boring

Gallowgate

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

Oof

Andy_JS

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

Strange to see UKIP on 2% compared to 3% for REFUK.

HYUFD

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

Worth noting the changes on that poll over the actuals when the last sets of locals were contested. If that poll is anything like the actual result in May, it's going to be an interesting night. And following days.

2016:

Labour -2
Conservative +10
LibDems -4

2017:

Labour -6
Cons +2
LibDems -7

The figures for the 2017 county elections were Cons 38%, Labour 27%, LDs 18%, so still a swing of 2% to Labour in the county elections at least even on that Kantar poll (which I think overestimated the LDs and Greens and underestimated Labour).

Comres yesterday showed a different picture

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1364663432486801409?s=20

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1364916965190606851?s=20
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1364917125467496453?s=20
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1364917897550782464?s=20

DavidL

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

Some do. I don't.

TheScreamingEagles

India also played in a two day test in 2018, not the pitch as such more the fact they were playing Afghanistan.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/afg-in-india-2018-1133249/india-vs-afghanistan-only-test-1133983/full-scorecard

Nigelb

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

Some do. I don't.

Who do you cheer for when Scotland play England in cricket?

Nigel_Foremain

NerysHughes said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

Oh dear, Sir Keir.

Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......

He is just too dull and boring

People said that about Cameron. Or was it too chameleon, too lightweight. Though I hate Bozo, I am not too
keen on a Labour government, so can be fairly dispassionate re SKS, but I think Tories that want to write him
off need to recognise it is a long time before an election and at the moment. The Tories have a "leader" who
other than the notable and excellent exception of the vaccine rollout (lucky perhaps?), has been an utter calamity in everything he has touched. There will be a lot more disasters before the next election while The Clown is in charge. People may well be attracted to "boring" rather than calamitous.

rottenborough

NerysHughes said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

Oh dear, Sir Keir.

Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......

He is just too dull and boring

Two people have actually changed government policy recently from outside the administration.

One is a footballer and the other is a DJ.*

Who would be LOTO?

*A 3rd might be an ex-PM but Hancock claims his own idea was stolen.

Burgessian

MarqueeMark said:

FPT MattW, there has been a 7.5% swing in net favorables between Boris and Nicola since the last poll. OK, his previous ratings were worse than scrofula, but with Ross polling much better too, it might mean the Tories are best placed to benefit from further internal SNP trauma between now and May.

Especially with Starmer going backwards too.

Douglas Ross's approval up to 28% will be giving SCon some reason for hope. And that's before he gets the benefit of more coverage from the election campaign. Tories got 31 MSPs out of a list vote of just shy of 23% last time, so not inconceivable that they could do better in May,

Philip_Thompson

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

Thanks for the best wishes (and from everyone else).

She won't be taking any more tests now for a while, at home for a fortnight now and when she returns they don't take tests until 90 days after the positive.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

Nigelb

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1364915935107305472?s=20

There is currently no 'lane' for either 'Trump lite' or 'Trump zero', and unlikely to be one before the next election.

At least two thirds of Republican voters are not fully connected with reality.

Floater

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1364920792581083140

kinabalu

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

Unless there's a big change of sentiment over there - which is possible - I'd say that any Republican you are even remotely a fan of has no chance whatsoever of the nomination.

rottenborough

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1364915935107305472?s=20

There is currently no 'lane' for either 'Trump lite' or 'Trump zero', and unlikely to be one before the next election.

At least two thirds of Republican voters are not fully connected with reality.

Indeed. As I posted earlier, only serious ill health (i.e. so bad he can't hide it) will stop Trump running and winning the GOP nomination imho.

Andy_Cooke

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

Worth noting the changes on that poll over the actuals when the last sets of locals were contested. If that poll is anything like the actual result in May, it's going to be an interesting night. And following days.

2016:

Labour -2
Conservative +10
LibDems -4

2017:

Labour -6
Cons +2
LibDems -7

I've always noticed that the scores on the doors in Local Elections are usually rather different to the polls at the time. Is it worth comparing the polls just before each set of LEs with them now and using that to judge the likely swing?

williamglenn

The latest self-defeating policy: Germany plans 25,000 EUR fines for vaccine queue jumping.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/coronavirus-koalition-plant-bis-zu-25-000-euro-strafe-fuer-impfvordraengler-a-07a18090-c991-4fa8-9613-5fc1ec2ba9cb

TheScreamingEagles

I'm about to start a two hour video call, the match is going to be over by the time I'm finished.

Nigelb

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

Unless there's a big change of sentiment over there - which is possible - I'd say that any Republican you are even remotely a fan of has no chance whatsoever of the nomination.

True.
I'd go further and say that no Republican who doesn't refuse to acknowledge that Biden won the election has any chance. The survival of US democracy remains very much in the balance.

Andy_JS

Cook and Strauss: England have a chance. 🤔

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

Some do. I don't.

Who do you cheer for when Scotland play England in cricket?

Scotland but I cheer on England against everyone else. I generally support any British side against anyone else. Even Liverpool at a pinch.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

Some do. I don't.

Who do you cheer for when Scotland play England in cricket?

India? (only kidding! )

malcolmg

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, from Philip Sim's twitter account.

A man has been jailed for six months after he admitted breaching the contempt order on the Alex Salmond trial. Lady Dorrian said Clive Thomson, 52, had committed a "deliberate and indeed planned contempt of court" by naming complainers from the trial on social media.

Lady Dorrian said Thomson knew he was breaching the order and had "given thought about how to get away with it" - he "went as far as to seek advice on Twitter".

Another one of those things I didn't think I'd end up having to say - DO NOT TAKE LEGAL ADVICE FROM RANDOMS ON TWITTER

This all underlines that courts do not screw around with this stuff. Defence argued Thomson is the breadwinner for his family and carer for his wife, who is shielding - but Lady Dorrian said that "for such a premeditated contempt" there is "no alternative to a custodial sentence"

But he actually named them which is a clear contempt of court. What happens in the Craig Murray trial who reported what others were reporting from the court by twitter will be much more interesting and test the limits of the jigsaw identification rule. Its very unusual for the decision in a criminal case to take as long to be determined as that one has been already.

It is especially odd given the main news media gave away lots more than he did, was almost impossible to get much from his words , yet others who had actually printed names did not get a call. Only Salmond supporters that have been pursued and on extremely flimsy to non existent grounds.

Andy_Cooke

Andy_Cooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

Worth noting the changes on that poll over the actuals when the last sets of locals were contested. If that poll is anything like the actual result in May, it's going to be an interesting night. And following days.

2016:

Labour -2
Conservative +10
LibDems -4

2017:

Labour -6
Cons +2
LibDems -7

I've always noticed that the scores on the doors in Local Elections are usually rather different to the polls at the time. Is it worth comparing the polls just before each set of LEs with them now and using that to judge the likely swing?

I've gone back and taken a look at UK Polling Report.

2017 Local Elections, average poll scores in the week before the Local Elections: Con 47, Lab 28.7, LD 9.5
2016 Local Elections, average poll scores (last 6 polls): Con 35.5, Lab 32.3, LD 6.2

Nigelb

Andy_JS said:

Cook and Strauss: England have a chance. 🤔

What, if they were still opening ?

Sunil_Prasannan

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

Thanks for the best wishes (and from everyone else).

She won't be taking any more tests now for a while, at home for a fortnight now and when she returns they don't take tests until 90 days after the positive.

Best wishes, hope neither of you get any serious symptoms.

TheScreamingEagles

Andy_JS said:

Cook and Strauss: England have a chance. 🤔

India were bowled out for 36 two months ago.

They have form.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Cook and Strauss: England have a chance. 🤔

India were bowled out for 36 two months ago.

They have form.

They won't get out the stadium alive if they don't get these runs.

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

Some do. I don't.

Who do you cheer for when Scotland play England in cricket?

Scotland but I cheer on England against everyone else. I generally support any British side against anyone else. Even Liverpool at a pinch.

Norman Tebbit would call you a traitor.

Jim Sillars would call you a 200 overs patriot.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

She really really has a brass neck, looks likeshe is going to take the whole lot down before she will fess up.

Endillion

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

Unless there's a big change of sentiment over there - which is possible - I'd say that any Republican you are even remotely a fan of has no chance whatsoever of the nomination.

True.
I'd go further and say that no Republican who doesn't refuse to acknowledge that Biden won the election has any chance. The survival of US democracy remains very much in the balance.

I remain optimistic that this sentiment will fade over the next few years, as Republican primary voters' desire to stop the Democrats overtakes the bizarre adherence to ideological purity with respect to Trumpism.

justin124

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

Worth noting the changes on that poll over the actuals when the last sets of locals were contested. If that poll is anything like the actual result in May, it's going to be an interesting night. And following days.

2016:

Labour -2
Conservative +10
LibDems -4

2017:

Labour -6
Cons +2
LibDems -7

In May 2017 the Tories had a lead of 11% in the Local Elections.

DavidL

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, from Philip Sim's twitter account.

A man has been jailed for six months after he admitted breaching the contempt order on the Alex Salmond trial. Lady Dorrian said Clive Thomson, 52, had committed a "deliberate and indeed planned contempt of court" by naming complainers from the trial on social media.

Lady Dorrian said Thomson knew he was breaching the order and had "given thought about how to get away with it" - he "went as far as to seek advice on Twitter".

Another one of those things I didn't think I'd end up having to say - DO NOT TAKE LEGAL ADVICE FROM RANDOMS ON TWITTER

This all underlines that courts do not screw around with this stuff. Defence argued Thomson is the breadwinner for his family and carer for his wife, who is shielding - but Lady Dorrian said that "for such a premeditated contempt" there is "no alternative to a custodial sentence"

But he actually named them which is a clear contempt of court. What happens in the Craig Murray trial who reported what others were reporting from the court by twitter will be much more interesting and test the limits of the jigsaw identification rule. Its very unusual for the decision in a criminal case to take as long to be determined as that one has been already.

It is especially odd given the main news media gave away lots more than he did, was almost impossible to get much from his words , yet others who had actually printed names did not get a call. Only Salmond supporters that have been pursued and on extremely flimsy to non existent grounds.

I didn't read any of his stuff so I can't say but you are not less guilty because others are guilty too.

malcolmg

Burgessian said:

MarqueeMark said:

FPT MattW, there has been a 7.5% swing in net favorables between Boris and Nicola since the last poll. OK, his previous ratings were worse than scrofula, but with Ross polling much better too, it might mean the Tories are best placed to benefit from further internal SNP trauma between now and May.

Especially with Starmer going backwards too.

Douglas Ross's approval up to 28% will be giving SCon some reason for hope. And that's before he gets the benefit of more coverage from the election campaign. Tories got 31 MSPs out of a list vote of just shy of 23% last time, so not inconceivable that they could do better in May,

Hard to imagine why as well, apart from fact that he is a lying Tory toerag, he is weak as ditchwater. He sounds like a whining schoolkid and is totally pathetic, he is like Leonard of labour.

kinabalu

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1364915935107305472?s=20

There is currently no 'lane' for either 'Trump lite' or 'Trump zero', and unlikely to be one before the next election.

At least two thirds of Republican voters are not fully connected with reality.

Indeed. As I posted earlier, only serious ill health (i.e. so bad he can't hide it) will stop Trump running and winning the GOP nomination imho.

I say not - but there's more intuition than logic steering my view atm. I've laid Trump at an average 7.25 and that's now a bad price. Latest 5.5.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

malcolmg

Nigel_Foremain said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever Eng;and's opponent is?

Some Scots always will. I find myself returning the favour and generally have more laughs than they do.

I would expect it from the like's of yourself.

Stocky

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

Thanks for the best wishes (and from everyone else).

She won't be taking any more tests now for a while, at home for a fortnight now and when she returns they don't take tests until 90 days after the positive.

PT, given that your wife has had dozens of tests - all negative - and now one positive (presumable via LFT) why isn`t she insisting on continued tests to see if the positive is a rogue result (given that she has no symptoms). That`s what I`d do for sure.

MikeSmithson

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

Oh dear, Sir Keir.

Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......

On these figures the Tories lose 9/10 seats to the LDs as well as about the same to LAB

eek

https://twitter.com/cath_haddon/status/1364925951163916291

Nigelb

https://twitter.com/kevincarrico/status/1364871034910826496

kinabalu

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

Unless there's a big change of sentiment over there - which is possible - I'd say that any Republican you are even remotely a fan of has no chance whatsoever of the nomination.

True.
I'd go further and say that no Republican who doesn't refuse to acknowledge that Biden won the election has any chance. The survival of US democracy remains very much in the balance.

Utterly bizarre. You'd have thought a repudiation of the democratic process would be a bar to running not a prerequisite.

malcolmg

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

I don't , however I do hate the English commentators , they always over egg the pudding and spout some verbal diahorrea. Where do they find them.

Philip_Thompson

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

Thanks for the best wishes (and from everyone else).

She won't be taking any more tests now for a while, at home for a fortnight now and when she returns they don't take tests until 90 days after the positive.

PT, given that your wife has had dozens of tests - all negative - and now one positive (presumable via LFT) why isn`t she insisting on continued tests to see if the positive is a rogue result (given that she has no symptoms). That`s what I`d do for sure.

It was PCR positive not LFT and its company policy. Get a positive and you're not allowed back for a fortnight. Not worth the risk of keeping on someone who's tested positive I suppose?

Not sure if LFT instead of PCR would have made a difference.

MaxPB

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

That's a pretty big concession is it not? At least if it counts for whole UK to EU.

Stocky

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

Thanks for the best wishes (and from everyone else).

She won't be taking any more tests now for a while, at home for a fortnight now and when she returns they don't take tests until 90 days after the positive.

PT, given that your wife has had dozens of tests - all negative - and now one positive (presumable via LFT) why isn`t she insisting on continued tests to see if the positive is a rogue result (given that she has no symptoms). That`s what I`d do for sure.

It was PCR positive not LFT and its company policy. Get a positive and you're not allowed back for a fortnight. Not worth the risk of keeping on someone who's tested positive I suppose?

Not sure if LFT instead of PCR would have made a difference.

Ah - I see - I didn`t think it would be a PCR.

Luckyguy1983

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

Many, I'd say most (of those who care) tend to - something that was a genuine surprise to me as an innocent first time visitor some years ago.

We'll know we've really developed as a valid Union when that sentiment wanes significantly.

CarlottaVance

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

That's a pretty big concession is it not? At least if it counts for whole UK to EU.

The whole thread suggests not - the EU wants a “Swiss” model (we follow their rules) the U.K. wants a NZ “equivalence” model. We’ll see whether they’re genuinely concerned about NI or simply weaponised it for negotiations

DavidL

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

She really really has a brass neck, looks likeshe is going to take the whole lot down before she will fess up.

Ruth's point today is a telling one. Up to now the focus has all been on the meeting with Mr Aberdein on 29th March where what was to be discussed at the meeting on 2nd April was allegedly discussed but Ruth is pointing out that Sturgeon knew about the allegations months prior to this and had discussed them with her officials. That really blows the water out of her "shock" at what was discussed on 2nd April and indeed her contention that she thought that this was some sort of SNP meeting which did not have to involve civil servants.

Given what she knew and given her position she really should not have met Salmond anywhere, let alone in her own home.

Nigelb

Endillion said:

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

Unless there's a big change of sentiment over there - which is possible - I'd say that any Republican you are even remotely a fan of has no chance whatsoever of the nomination.

True.
I'd go further and say that no Republican who doesn't refuse to acknowledge that Biden won the election has any chance. The survival of US democracy remains very much in the balance.

I remain optimistic that this sentiment will fade over the next few years, as Republican primary voters' desire to stop the Democrats overtakes the bizarre adherence to ideological purity with respect to Trumpism.

I think it will likely take the loss of another Presidential election.
I hope I'm wrong about that - and sincerely hope that if I'm not, then they do lose, humiliatingly.

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

She really really has a brass neck, looks likeshe is going to take the whole lot down before she will fess up.

It does seem remarkably curious that she hadn’t heard “any” of the “widely known” rumours about someone she’d worked very closely with for decades.

MaxPB

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

That's a pretty big concession is it not? At least if it counts for whole UK to EU.

The whole thread suggests not - the EU wants a “Swiss” model (we follow their rules) the U.K. wants a NZ “equivalence” model. We’ll see whether they’re genuinely concerned about NI or simply weaponised it for negotiations

But the whole point of entering into a negotiation is that it will end up somewhere in the middle and the UK still has the unilateral A16 lever if the negotiations are being conducted in bad faith by the EU.

Cookie

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

Oh dear, Sir Keir.

Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......

On these figures the Tories lose 9/10 seats to the LDs as well as about the same to LAB

I assume you mean nine or ten - not nine out of ten?!

Philip_Thompson

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

That's a pretty big concession is it not? At least if it counts for whole UK to EU.

About time looks like they're beginning to deal with issues seriously?

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

She really really has a brass neck, looks likeshe is going to take the whole lot down before she will fess up.

It does seem remarkably curious that she hadn’t heard “any” of the “widely known” rumours about someone she’d worked very closely with for decades.

Not when you factor in how shy, retiring, innocent and desperate to think the best of everyone Nats are.

Luckyguy1983

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/kevincarrico/status/1364871034910826496

It is very wrong of me, but I guffawed.

eek

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

That's a pretty big concession is it not? At least if it counts for whole UK to EU.

The whole thread suggests not - the EU wants a “Swiss” model (we follow their rules) the U.K. wants a NZ “equivalence” model. We’ll see whether they’re genuinely concerned about NI or simply weaponised it for negotiations

But the whole point of entering into a negotiation is that it will end up somewhere in the middle and the UK still has the unilateral A16 lever if the negotiations are being conducted in bad faith by the EU.

The issue I think with food is that because keep on talking about a deal with the US the EU think we will lower our standards when in reality our standards are currently way better than the EUs.

We probably should be emphasising that bit and saying if we lower them below yours than that is the time to renegotiate.

Leon

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

Relentless

Both sides will be relieved by that IPSOS poll. The SNP are taking a hit, but still quite likely to get a majority - at the moment (but much still to come)

The government will be mightily relieved by the indyref polling: the trend is to NO, but more importantly, a large plurality of Scots will accept the right of HMG to refuse a vote til the next GE. The rest - mainly the Nats - are split between UDI (which will never go anywhere), or taking Boris to court (almost certainly going nowhere)

All Boris has to do is say No in the politest possible way, order a Royal Commission into Federalism and Everything, punt the football out of Celtic Park and into the long grass by the Clyde, then sit back and watch the SNP implode: as they are already very close to doing. Sorted.

Andy_JS

"Beware the post-lockdown youth crime explosion
Middle-class children are being sucked into a world Tories wrongly see as only affecting the working class

By Sherelle Jacobs"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2021/02/25/beware-post-lockdown-youth-crime-explosion/

Nigelb

Not hanging around.
https://twitter.com/KizzyPhD/status/1364702305728233475

MaxPB

eek said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

That's a pretty big concession is it not? At least if it counts for whole UK to EU.

The whole thread suggests not - the EU wants a “Swiss” model (we follow their rules) the U.K. wants a NZ “equivalence” model. We’ll see whether they’re genuinely concerned about NI or simply weaponised it for negotiations

But the whole point of entering into a negotiation is that it will end up somewhere in the middle and the UK still has the unilateral A16 lever if the negotiations are being conducted in bad faith by the EU.

The issue I think with food is that because keep on talking about a deal with the US the EU think we will lower our standards when in reality our standards are currently way better than the EUs.

We probably should be emphasising that bit and saying if we lower them below yours than that is the time to renegotiate.

I think that's what was proposed originally but I haven't really followed any of the food stuff as it's a pretty small part of the economy compared to services and semi-manufactured goods. It's what has the most profile but really only accounts for a very small portion of exports and imports wrt EU trade.

Endillion

Nigelb said:

Endillion said:

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

Unless there's a big change of sentiment over there - which is possible - I'd say that any Republican you are even remotely a fan of has no chance whatsoever of the nomination.

True.
I'd go further and say that no Republican who doesn't refuse to acknowledge that Biden won the election has any chance. The survival of US democracy remains very much in the balance.

I remain optimistic that this sentiment will fade over the next few years, as Republican primary voters' desire to stop the Democrats overtakes the bizarre adherence to ideological purity with respect to Trumpism.

I think it will likely take the loss of another Presidential election.
I hope I'm wrong about that - and sincerely hope that if I'm not, then they do lose, humiliatingly.

Maybe. The issue there is that, with US politics this polarised, I'm not sure if a humiliating defeat is even possible anymore. Biden did markedly better than Clinton, but still didn't win all that convincingly, and I don't see Biden in four years, or Harris, doing that much better in key states against a generic Trumpist.

MrEd

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/kevincarrico/status/1364871034910826496

It is very wrong of me, but I guffawed.

That is brilliant. I always thought Biden would bend over when it came to China, I didn't realise it would be literally.

sarissa

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

She really really has a brass neck, looks likeshe is going to take the whole lot down before she will fess up.

Ruth's point today is a telling one. Up to now the focus has all been on the meeting with Mr Aberdein on 29th March where what was to be discussed at the meeting on 2nd April was allegedly discussed but Ruth is pointing out that Sturgeon knew about the allegations months prior to this and had discussed them with her officials. That really blows the water out of her "shock" at what was discussed on 2nd April and indeed her contention that she thought that this was some sort of SNP meeting which did not have to involve civil servants.

Given what she knew and given her position she really should not have met Salmond anywhere, let alone in her own home.

David - Geoff Aberdein's submission to the inquiry is not doing to be published and he will not be called, so his version of events contradicting Sturgeon cannot be even considered. That is the reason she felt confident enough to say the complainant's name was not disclosed to salmond via Aberdein prior to the 29 march meeting.

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

Not hanging around.
https://twitter.com/KizzyPhD/status/1364702305728233475

That's bloody amazing. Really hoping we can get our 17m order adjusted to this even if it means a short delay for delivery.

MrEd

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

Relentless

Both sides will be relieved by that IPSOS poll. The SNP are taking a hit, but still quite likely to get a majority - at the moment (but much still to come)

The government will be mightily relieved by the indyref polling: the trend is to NO, but more importantly, a large plurality of Scots will accept the right of HMG to refuse a vote til the next GE. The rest - mainly the Nats - are split between UDI (which will never go anywhere), or taking Boris to court (almost certainly going nowhere)

All Boris has to do is say No in the politest possible way, order a Royal Commission into Federalism and Everything, punt the football out of Celtic Park and into the long grass by the Clyde, then sit back and watch the SNP implode: as they are already very close to doing. Sorted.

The only thing would say in that, in these types of situations, there tends to be an element of things not changing for a while and then suddenly the momentum reaches a tipping point. That might be different with the SNP (and support might go to the Greens who would back them so it wouldn't make a huge difference but, if you have this relentless day after day of headlines and, probably more importantly, the actors involved looking as though they are on the defensive, it takes a toll.